Just to clear things up – the contender tracker generally features the strongest of the moment but it isn’t meant to be a predictor. It’s a sloppy accounting practice that doesn’t get into full swing for a couple of weeks. Here is how I see the frontrunners at the moment:
Best Picture: Benjamin Button for the win, the other four to be among these: The Dark Knight, Milk, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, and MAYBE just maybe Australia.
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke and Frank Langella duking it out for the win, pushed out possibly by Clint Eastwood. Followed by Sean Penn (who has won too recently I think to win again), Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro, with Richard Jenkins and Hugh Jackman as darkhorses.
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett (unless she goes supporting, AGAIN) duking it out for the lead prize. Joining them, Anne Hathaway, Kristin Scott Thomas, and the dark horses right now Angelina Jolie and Melissa Leo.
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader to win, unless she takes Best Actress, Penelope Cruz, Taraji P. Henson, Viola Davis and/or Amy Adams for Doubt, Kathy Bates for Revolutionary Road, Debra Winger and Marisa Tomei as outside possibilities.
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger seems to be the frontrunner but I have my doubts on a posthumous Oscar win, followed by Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road, Ralph Fiennes for The Reader or Duchess, Robert Downey, Jr. for Iron Man (could win), John Malkovich for Burn After Reading or Changeling. James Franco or Emile Hirsch or Josh Brolin for Milk, can’t decide – this is the year’s most wide open category at the moment.
Director: David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Ron Howard, Sam Mendes, Danny Boyle, Gus Van Sant (forgot him earlier, dumbass) – and then Baz Luhrmann if Australia goes, Stephen Daldry, etc.
The order of things will likely change next week, they always do.¬† And I promise to tidy up the Contender Tracker as well so that you all don’t think I’ve gone completely crazy.