• About Us
  • Advertising on Awards Daily
Thursday, June 8, 2023
  • Login
  • Register
No Result
View All Result
Awardsdaily
  • Home
  • Good As Gold
  • AD TV
  • Calendar 2023
  • Podcasts
  • Interviews
  • Follow us on Twitter
    • Awards Daily
    • Sasha Stone
    • Ryan Adams
    • Clarence Moye
    • Mark Johnson
  • All News
  • Home
  • Good As Gold
  • AD TV
  • Calendar 2023
  • Podcasts
  • Interviews
  • Follow us on Twitter
    • Awards Daily
    • Sasha Stone
    • Ryan Adams
    • Clarence Moye
    • Mark Johnson
  • All News
No Result
View All Result
Awardsdaily
No Result
View All Result

Up in the Air and Locked, Cat by Cat

by Sasha Stone2
February 3, 2009
in AWARDS CHATTER
120

Okay, so let’s do this thing. I am supposed to be filling out my Gurus chart and my Buzzmeter chart, of course I haven’t done either. It’s hard out there for a pimp, what can I say. I’m working on it, fellas. Here we go.

Best Picture – mostly locked. Slim chance for a Reader or Button upset but the slimmest of ever-so-slim chances there. Slumdog has thing in the bag.

Best Director – locked.

Best Actor – still fairly open. Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke are competing, but any of the others could sneak in. Remember when Adrien Brody won when everyone thought it was either Daniel Day Lewis or Jack Nicholson. Two popular contenders can often mean that a third actually wins. Who would that third be? Richard Jenkins, Frank Langella and Brad Pitt are the other three.

Best Actress – a toss up between Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep. Streep earns her 15th nod and still only has one Best Actress Oscar. By contrast, Hilary Swank has two. So does Jodie Foster. Not that there’s anything wrong with that but still, the lady may be overdue for this win. On the other hand, this is the Year of the Kate, with her having NEVER won a single Oscar and having turned in two career-best performances. And there is Melissa Leo, a dark horse if there ever was one. Dark horses have been known to win, however. Anne Hathaway and Angelina Jolie probably are in the lucky-to-be-nominated category this time, where Winslet usually sits. But nobody knows anything.

Best Supporting Actor: Want to know how Heath can lose? If the Academy catches a case of the “shoulds.” No one likes being told who they should or must vote for. While everyone expects Ledger will walk away with this, I’ve gone down this same road too many times to think that this is anything but a slam dunk. Clearly, this is a voting that did not like The Dark Knight enough, in mass, to vote for it in Best Picture. That hurts for Ledger’s win. It is also a posthumous Oscar, which is a tough sell anyway as they all like to see their choices walk up on stage to be anointed by their generosity. In line to win if Ledger doesn’t is probably Robert Downey, Jr. And the poor guy if that happens.

Clearly “they” don’t care what other people think about “their” choices. As Kenneth Turan famously wrote after Brokeback lost to Crash, “In the privacy of the voting booth, as many political candidates who’ve led in polls only to lose elections have found out, people are free to act out the unspoken fears and unconscious prejudices that they would never breathe to another soul, or, likely, acknowledge to themselves,‚Äù he wrote. ‚ÄúAnd at least this year, that acting out doomed Brokeback Mountain.‚Äù

It was one of the smartest things anyone has ever written about the way “they” make their choices. So don’t be surprised if some other name is called. At that point, I’m sure, many will wipe their hands of the Academy for good. That’s my guess. Cue the commenters calling me a fangirl and bitter and angry, etc.

Supporting Actress: I put Viola Davis in the lead because of what Jason wrote here:

Viola Davis will win the oscar for 2 reasons 1) assuming Winslet wins Best Actress, Doubt has 4 acting noms. and wouldn’t have any wins with the current leads at AD; it’d be silly to think they wouldn’t honor one of those, and it’d either be Davis or Adams but 2) Davis is black and as it sometimes goes, that does count for something.

Okay so someone also brought up the possibility of Adams and Davis canceling each other out. Adams’ isn’t that strong for the win, I don’t think, and is truly lucky to be nominated. What that shows is a love for the film overall, I think. Hurting Davis more is Taraji P. Henson, who could end up being one of Button’s wins. I know that 13 nominations can result in no wins but on top of art direction, costume design, visual effects, Button can win in supporting actress too. I’m not going to do the black thing because I think, believe it or not, the Academy has moved beyond that (I remember when they hadn’t, believe me).

Supporting actress is tough, no doubt. Marisa Tomei would be winning her second Oscar in supporting. It’s certainly possible if they really loved The Wrestler. It’s hard to beat Viola Davis, though, with that emotionally packed scene and the fact that she’s been doing serious press for the movie. I’m still not completely decided on this category and I think any of the five could win.

Original Screenplay: Another toss-up. These writers are all good. In the “they’re going to want to give the film something” category, Milk could win this in a walk. Courtney Hunt has the advantage of being female in an industry where so few female writers are recognized. And then there is Andrew Stanton, who wrote Wall-E. Although the Annies pricked the buzz bubble on the film for the moment, how many voters will feel enough love to vote for the great writing here? There is always Mike Leigh to content with, now that BAFAMPAS is the AMPAS.

Adapted Screenplay: Locked.

We’ll do part two, the techs and the rest, tomorrow.

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • WhatsApp
  • Print
Tags: CONTENDERSPREDICTIONS
Sasha Stone2

Sasha Stone2

Related Posts

How To Fix the Broken Oscars

by Peter Szemmelveisz
May 26, 2022
149

After this year's Oscars debacle, there's no question that the whole show needs to be rethought. Question is, can they...

Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist: Alex Newell Talks Season Two and Finding Creative Freedom

Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist: Alex Newell Talks Season Two and Finding Creative Freedom

by Shadan Larki
March 1, 2021
0

Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist captured my heart from its first episode, it's one of my favorite things on TV, and I've...

‘Sound of Metal’ is a Roaring Achievement

‘Sound of Metal’ is a Roaring Achievement

by Shadan Larki
December 5, 2020
15

Darius Marder's Sound of Metal is many things—brilliantly acted and finely crafted, but above all, Sound of Metal is unique in its...

‘Normal People’: Paul Mescal and Daisy Edgar-Jones on Honest Depictions of Intimacy and Lessons Learned

Producer Ed Guiney Talks Adapting Sally Rooney’s ‘Normal People’ For Television

by Shadan Larki
July 4, 2020
0

In an interview with Awards Daily's Shadan Larki, producer Ed Guiney, two-time Academy Award nominee for Room and The Favourite, discusses...

Michelle Dockery Opens Up About Playing the Loving, Conflicted Mother at the Heart of ‘Defending Jacob’

Michelle Dockery Opens Up About Playing the Loving, Conflicted Mother at the Heart of ‘Defending Jacob’

by Shadan Larki
July 1, 2020
0

Michelle Dockery, the Emmy-nominated star of Godless and Downtown Abbey, returns to television in the Apple TV+ miniseries Defending Jacob....

Chris Sullivan On ‘This Is Us’ and Toby’s Complicated Feelings about Fatherhood

Chris Sullivan On ‘This Is Us’ and Toby’s Complicated Feelings about Fatherhood

by Shadan Larki
July 9, 2020
2

This Is Us' Chris Sullivan spoke to Awards Daily's Shadan Larki about Toby's journey from Pearson family outsider to becoming...

Next Post

The New 31 Days of Oscar Promo

‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3:’ A Look at the Amazing Makeup and Hair Crafts In the Epic Space Adventure

‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3:’ A Look at the Amazing Makeup and Hair Crafts In the Epic Space Adventure

June 8, 2023
‘The Diplomat’ Co-Star David Gyasi On Inspirations For His Role and Working With Emmy-Nominee Keri Russell

‘The Diplomat’ Co-Star David Gyasi On Inspirations For His Role and Working With Emmy-Nominee Keri Russell

June 8, 2023
Jane Krakowski On the Razzle Dazzle of the Self-Referential ‘Schmicago!’

Jane Krakowski On the Razzle Dazzle of the Self-Referential ‘Schmicago!’

June 8, 2023
Jane Krakowski On the Razzle Dazzle of the Self-Referential ‘Schmicago!’

Jane Krakowski On the Razzle Dazzle of the Self-Referential ‘Schmicago!’

by Joey Moser
June 8, 2023
0

Seeing Jane Krakowski in the second season of Schmigadoon! is like realizing a mirage is real. She has always been...

Oscars 2024: Emma Stone in Poor Things – Trailer and New Poster

Oscars 2024: Emma Stone in Poor Things – Trailer and New Poster

by Sasha Stone
June 8, 2023
14

Here is the new trailer and poster for Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, starring Emma Stone: https://youtu.be/RlbR5N6veqw Coming September 8: From...

95 Years of Oscars: Ranking The Best Picture Winners Part Four – #25-1

95 Years of Oscars: Ranking The Best Picture Winners Part Four – #25-1

by Mark Johnson
June 8, 2023
27

Welcome to the thrilling conclusion of our analysis of the greatest Best Picture winners at the Academy Awards. In this...

camila morrone daisy jones and the six

Camila Morrone On Whether Her Character Regrets That Fling in ‘Daisy Jones & The Six’

by Megan McLachlan
June 7, 2023
0

Awards Daily talks to Camila Morrone of Daisy Jones & The Six about Camila's fling with Eddie, unwanted pregnancy, and...

lena waithe rishi rajani being mary tyler moore

‘Being Mary Tyler Moore’ Executive Producers Lena Waithe & Rishi Rajani On the TV Icon’s Legacy, Who Should Play Her in a Biopic [VIDEO]

by Megan McLachlan
June 6, 2023
0

Awards Daily talks to Being Mary Tyler Moore executive producers Lena Waithe and Rishi Rajani about Moore's legacy and what...

markus mentzer i think you should leave

‘I Think You Should Leave’ Cinematographer Markus Mentzer On the Truth about the Driving Crooner, Plus What Happens to the Sketches That Don’t Make the Cut

by Megan McLachlan
June 6, 2023
0

Awards Daily talks to I Think You Should Leave cinematographer Markus Mentzer about cramped offices, malicious frat guys, and not-so-great...

AwardsDaily Crew

  • About Us
  • Sasha Stone
  • Editor Ryan Adams
  • Editor Clarence Moye
  • Editor Mark Johnson
  • Contact Us

ADTV Crew

  • ADTV Home
  • Megan McLachlan, Editor
  • Joey Moser, Editor
  • Clarence Moye, Editor
  • Jalal Haddad, Senior Contributor
  • Shadan Larki
  • Ben Morris
  • David Phillips
  • Advertising on Awards Daily
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Oscar Podcast
  • AwardsDailyTV

© 2023 JNews - Premium WordPress news & magazine theme by Jegtheme.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Good As Gold
  • AD TV
  • Calendar 2023
  • Podcasts
  • Interviews
  • Follow us on Twitter
    • Awards Daily
    • Sasha Stone
    • Ryan Adams
    • Clarence Moye
    • Mark Johnson
  • All News

© 2023 JNews - Premium WordPress news & magazine theme by Jegtheme.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In