Reader MGO does some heavy lifting and comes up with a fairly interesting stat – it’s much more common for actors who star in Best Pic nominees to win. We knew this already; it’s a long held tradition at the Oscars. But it slams hard when you look at his list (my notes in italics):
Daniel Day-Lewis, won, Film Nod Best Picture (Marion Cotillard also won in film not nominated)
Helen Mirren, won, Film Nod Best Picture. (Forest Whitaker won in film not nominated)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, won, Film Nod Best Picture.  (Reese Witherspoon also won in film not nominated)
Jamie Foxx, won, Film Nod Best Picture. Hilary Swank, won, Film WIN Best Picture.
Sean Penn, won, Film Nod Best Picture. (Charlize Theron also won in film not nominated)
Adrien Brody, won, Film Nod Best Picture. Nicole Kidman, won, Film Nod Best Picture.
Denzel Washington, won, film not nominated for Best Picture. Halle Berry also won in film not nominated
Russell Crowe, won, Film WIN Best Picture. Julia Roberts, won, Film Nod Best Picture.
Kevin Spacey, won, Film WIN Best Picture. Hilary Swank won, won, not nominated for best pic.
Roberto Benigni, won, Film Nod Best Picture. Gwyneth Paltrow, won, Film WIN Best Picture.
Jack Nicholson, won, Film WIN Best Picture. Helen Hunt, won, Film WIN Best Picture.
Geoffrey Rush, won, Film Nod Best Picture. Frances McDormand, won Film Nod Best Picture.
Tom Hanks, won, Film WIN Best Picture. Jessica Lange, won film not nominated.
Still, it’s a compelling argument that bodes well for Sean Penn. More of MGO’s reasoning:
I did this countdown from 1994 to this times, and in most of the years in 97% of the case, one of the leading roles are nominated as well in the Best Picture category and they WIN!!, and this year the actors who are nominated in lead category and also the film are:
Brad Pitt in for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, with 13 Nods.
*SEAN PENN for MILK, with 8 Nods.
**Frank Langella for Frost Nixon, with 5 Nods.
***KATE WINSLET for THE READER, with 5 nods.*Philp Seymour Hoffman won his Oscar for a real/gay persona.
**Anthony Hopkins lost his Oscar for a Richard Nixon performance.
***Nicole Kidman won her Oscar in a Stephen Daldry film.SOOO, after all this kinds of stadistics, im predicting…
Sean Penn will win his second Academy Award.
Kate Winslet will win her first Academy Award, after 5 nods losing it.
Heath Ledger will become the first actor to receive an Academy Awards for a comic movie.
Penelope Cruz will win her first Oscar and becoming the first Spanish actress to win it & will follow the tradition of Woody Allen women.
