I was thinking about the Best Picture race while in the shower when my thoughts turned to Don Draper … no, not really. Well, yes really, but not relevant. The best picture ten will only really be divided once – and that is for the Golden Globes. They can only nominate five dramas and five musical/comedies. We know that Nine is assured to enter the race very strongly at that point, if it hadn’t already. This is not to be premature and assume it is in no matter what, but let’s just say it is in. The Globes is really where it will shine first. I think.
The Globes is where The Hangover might make an appearance. Yes, it’s true that when it was first announced that there would be ten Best Picture nominees, the first thing The Wrap’s Sharon Waxman said was, “Best Picture: The Hangover.” At the time, the concept of the Academy honoring that film seemed like an instant reputation killer (like of the Towering Inferno order), it now seems maybe not so crazy?
Let’s do a quick round-up of how we think the Best Pic nominations might go. Here are my best guesses – keep in mind we are all probably going to have some egg on our face when all is said and done, as we are predicting films no one has seen. This cannot be emphasized enough. It does make a difference. Expectations swell to unrealistic heights around this time of year. And by the way, it’s almost here: waking up at 5:30am, waiting patiently with the E! staff to stop blabbering and get to the nominations – the nerves, the vanity, the excitement, the inevitable let-downs – my heart will give out before it’s all over with. I am no spring chicken, people. Okay, let’s get to it.¬† I am cheating and going with six nominees for drama.
Best Picture, Drama
Invictus
Up in the Air
A Serious Man or Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Precious
An Education
Alt. -The Lovely Bones – so you see it is really hard to get down to five without leaving out something substantial like A Serious Man. If you put it in, what gets bumped? AD reader Free informs uniformed me that Inglourious Basterds will compete in the drama category. Don’t make me bump the Jewish movie in lieu of the Nazi movie! Where would they put Inglourious Basterds if it got in? In comedy?!
Best Picture Comedy/Musical
500 Days of Summer
Nine
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
It’s Complicated
If Up in the Air is put in comedy, as has been suggested, that is going to be slightly problematic. Anyway, if all goes according to plan, Nine cleans up in this category anyway. If it comes down to Up in the Air vs. Nine there could be trouble. We’ll be doing more preliminary predictions as we creep closer to the first early wakeup call of the season.
