The Gurus of Gold have laid it down after screening many of the Oscar contenders — most of them have seen Nine, Invictus, Up in the Air — most have not seen The Lovely Bones nor Avatar. Interestingly, Anne Thompson sped Invictus right to number one. It is impossible, I can tell you, to predict the Oscars in any way, shape or form before the films have been released. If a person manages to do it it’s just blind luck. The Oscar race, as I always say like a broken record, is not static; it is fluid. It changes as the mood of the audiences changes. My final theory on this is that people choose films for two reasons. The first is because they were moved by the story. The second is that it somehow identifies them to the world at large. What they choose is who they are. That means that films have to be sexy and hot in order to do well in the race. If the Oscar race comes down to perception, perception now starts in how the voices online shape the image of the film long before it hits theaters.
So that, even if the film does well, it could still be carrying a stigma that will trickle down to voters eventually. This is probably one of the worst things about the race as it stands today; how are films to be judged on whether they are good or bad without the echo chamber and group think?
Here is how the Gurus shaped up for Thanksgiving week.
Your Best Picture, I can guarantee you, is on this list. I think Avatar is way too far down on the list, however. We’re still very much in the “nobody knows anything” phase. Trust me on this. I can’t state it more emphatically every year – this is a best guess. We won’t really know how it is going to go until the majors ring in. And every time they do this chart will shift.
Anyway, you can check out the full chart over at MCN.