Guide to the Precursers

Indiewire’s Peter Knegt does a good job laying out the award precursors coming soon to an Oscar blog near you. Actually, you could probably say it will becoming from all sides, from every angle and outlet and social networking tool near you. I’m scared of Oscars 2009 where Twitter and Facebook are involved. There might turn out to be such a thing as too much information. “Did you hear what I’m saying to you? We don’t got no information.”

Peter mentions the following:

The Gothams November 30:

Last Year’s Big Winner: “Frozen River,” taking best feature and a breakthrough acting honor for Melissa Leo.

Mentions the Spirit Awards, which we’ll skip for now (though it’s important that Indiewire not skip them) and move on to the NBR (which I still consider the biggest precursor in the early phase):

December 3rd: National Board of Review

Last Year’s Big Winners: “Slumdog Millionaire” took its first major best picture award of the season here, as well as honors for adapted screenplay and breakthrough actor Dev Patel. Other major winners included Clint Eastwood (best actor for “Gran Torino”), Anne Hathaway (best actress for “Rachel Getting Married”), Josh Brolin (best supporting actor for “Milk”) and Penelope Cruz (best supporting actress for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”). Their top ten list consisted of four of the five eventual best picture Oscar nominees, leaving off “The Reader.”

The NBR is much better at helping a film get into the Oscar race than it is in calling out a winner, unless it’s a winner that is going to win everything anyway, like Slumdog or No Country for Old Men. But its calling out Letters from Iwo Jima the year before was an important moment in the 2007 Oscar race because at that time Letters hadn’t yet really come forward as a major contender; most were focused on Flags on Our Fathers, which didn’t do as well. The NBR winners chart after the cut, as well as more precursor stuff.

National Board of Review Winner Chart:

Here is how Peter thinks it might shakedown:

While pinpointing their specific choices are a challenge, one can assume “Invictus” (they historically love them some Clint Eastwood), “An Education,” “Up In The Air” and “Precious” will all be in the mix this time around, at least with a top 10 mention if not a major award. “Dreamgirls” failed to make their top ten in 2006, so it will be somewhat interesting to see how “Nine” plays out here. For the hell of it, I’ll suggest this for the major categories: “Precious” takes best picture and supporting actress for Mo’Nique; “Invictus” takes best director and actor for Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman; Meryl Streep wins best actress for both “Julie & Julia” and “It’s Complicated,” while Stanley Tucci takes a joint best supporting actor honor for “Julie & Julia” and “The Lovely Bones.”

I think they’ll go for something more palatable than Precious, however — I’m wondering if they might not choose The Messenger in a freak upset. If not that film, An Education or Up in the Air seem like they are headed for an NBoR win.

Peter then moves on:

December 13th* & 14th: Los Angeles Film Critics Awards and New York Film Critics Awards

Last Year’s Big Winners: In LA, while Oscar snubees “WALL-E” and the ultra deserving Sally Hawkins took top honors for best picture and actress, eventually Oscar winners Danny Boyle, Sean Penn, Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz all won here as well. In New York, “Milk” and “Happy-Go-Lucky” swept the awards, with the former taking picture, actor and supporting actor, and the latter taking director and actress. Sweeper Penelope Cruz was also in the mix for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.”

The LA Film Critics can sometimes make a huge difference. Their choosing There Will Be Blood the No Country year seem to really announce that film’s presence with authority – on the other hand, it might have been headed that way anyway. The LAFCA and the NYFCC are funny these days; they didn’t used to disagree just to disagree but one gets the feeling that they like to be contrary — or perhaps that is a lame way of saying it. They don’t like to go along with the herd is perhaps a better way of saying it. Choosing Wall-E over Slumdog, for instance.

Anyway, here’s my predictions, for what it’s worth: Both groups honor Kathryn Bigelow as best director and Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique in the supporting categories. In LA, “The Hurt Locker” takes best picture, while “A Serious Man” wins in New York. Morgan Freeman and Carey Mulligan win LA lead acting honors, while Colin Firth and Tilda Swinton (for “Julia,” in a bit of a surprise… though “Antichrist”‘s Charlotte Gainsbourg might be another one to look for if they go the anti-Oscar precursor route) win in New York.

I think Peter is spot on here — except for the tiny fact that no one likes to be a foregone conclusion – writing these predictions could slightly alter their outcome. I definitely agree that The Hurt Locker is up for major awards in the critics run of the race – and I think it will start winning stuff starting here, with the LAFCA and the NYFCC. The main reason for this, I think, is that they go two ways. They either pluck a surprise out of the race that people have not yet seen, or else they honor a film that really could use the push and is being ignored for whatever reason. Also, I think the strong voices in the LAFCA really loved and supported The Hurt Locker.

The rest of Peter’s predictions, for the BFCA and the Globes, we”ll have to save until it’s time to cover them — but Peter knows his stuff so he’s well worth popping over there for a read.

Here is an LA Film Critics chart for your reading pleasure, winner to winner (red means won Best Pic, blue means nommed for Best Pic):