Karger’s Precursor Tally – Hurt Locker Leads

Dave Karger has worked it out, and posted the tally to EW:

6: The Hurt Locker (NBR, AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Inglourious Basterds (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Precious (AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Up in the Air (NBR, AFI, BFCA, GG, PGA)
4: An Education (NBR, BFCA, SAG, PGA) ineligible for AFI
4: Up (NBR, AFI, BFCA, PGA) ineligible for GG Best Picture
3: Avatar (BFCA, GG, PGA)
3: Invictus (NBR, BFCA, PGA)
3: Nine (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3: A Serious Man (NBR, AFI, BFCA)
2: (500) Days of Summer (NBR, GG)
2: The Hangover (AFI, GG)
2: The Messenger (NBR, AFI)
2: Star Trek (NBR, PGA)
1: Coraline (AFI)
1: District 9 (PGA)
1: It’s Complicated (GG)
1: Julie & Julia (GG)
1: A Single Man (AFI)
1: Sugar (AFI)

It’s a minor note, but Up in the Air actually won the NBR – and it wasn’t a nominee. So, among those mentioned here, so far Up in the Air is the only winner of anything. I took it a step further and worked it out from last year – since Dave is doing it now, pre-DGA and pre-BAFTA, I figured I’d add those in well – however.

Two things I noticed. 1. The lineup that the Critics Choice had looked like a good representation of what ten Best Pic nominees might have looked like last year, give or take (I have put them in blue). Maybe Changeling would have been dumped. 2. BAFTA was the only precursor to match Oscar’s Best Pic five for five:

Slumdog Millionaire (10-NBR+, AFI, BFCA+, GG+, SAG+, PGA+, WGA+, DGA+, BAFTA+, Oscar+)
Benjamin Button (9-NBR,WGA, DGA, GG,SAG, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
Frost/Nixon (9-NBR,WGA, DGA, GG,SAG, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
Milk (8-NBR, WGA+, DGA, SAG, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
The Dark Knight (5-NBR,WGA, DGA, PGA, BFCA,)
The Reader (4-GG, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
Doubt (3-WGA, SAG, BFCA)
The Wrestler (3-GG, WGA, BFCA)
Wall-E (2-NBR, BFCA)
Changeling (1-BFCA)