This USA Today interactive graphic (based on Steve Pond’s explanation) shows how the preferential system goes about choosing a winner. Take a look.
So, going by this chart – the ballots that kind of count more are the ones that have obscure votes as their number ones. Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, given our ten. Let’s say that, going by the most nominees and working down (THL gets number one because it has acting and writing nominations):
1. The Hurt Locker – 1,200
2. Avatar – 1,100
3. Inglourious Basterds – 950
4. Precious – 800
5. Up in the Air – 600
6. Up – 450
7. District 9 – 350
8. An Education – 300
9. The Blind Side -150
10. A Serious Man – 125
It seems pretty obvious to me that these numbers could be shifted around. When a member is staring at a list of ten pictures a few months after all of the heated campaigning, who knows what film will be their number one. Sentiment could push The Blind Side way up the list. But lets say, for the sake of argument, this is how it landed. If you were a voter who chose A Serious Man as your favorite film of the year, what would be your second favorite film of the year? It probably isn’t going to be Avatar. If you’re someone who chose The Blind Side as your number one pick, what is going to be your second choice?¬†¬† You have to wonder which of the top five films is going to be the second and third choice of many of the remainder voters. You need the big vote to become one of the chosen piles but you need the middle votes to push it over into the win. Hope this helps some!