Indiewire’s Peter Knegt takes a look back at the last few months and rolls the dice. ¬†His conclusion?
[quote]A few things that are looking quite certain as summer turns to fall:
-Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo will receive acting nominations for ‚ÄúThe Kids Are All Right.‚Äù
-‚ÄúThe Kids Are All Right‚Äù will also be nominated for best original screenplay.
-‚ÄúInside Job‚Äù will be nominated for, and likely win, best documentary feature.
-‚ÄúToy Story 3‚Äù and ‚ÄúHow To Train Your Dragon‚Äù will be nominated for best animated feature.
-‚ÄúToy Story 3‚Äù will also be nominated for best adapted screenplay.
-Randy Newman will receive his 19th Oscar nomination.
-‚ÄúInception‚Äù will receive at least six nominations, one of which will be best picture.[/quote]
He then runs down his safe bets, reasonable maybes and dark horses. He’s spot on, for the most part, and does a nice job summing things up. I too think that, at this point, Christopher Nolan seems like the strongest contender for a director nod. I would add Mike Leigh except that one just never knows what the fate of a movie will be, no matter how good it is.
One thing we know for sure: Toronto all but wipes the slate clean. It is incredibly hard to remain relevant in the post-Toronto rush to the critics and guild awards. Mike Leigh’s Another Year and Derek Cianfrance’s Blue Valentine have not yet opened, so they can’t really be forgotten.
We Oscar bloggers are put in an awkward position of trying to pretend like we know something at a time when you can’t really know anything. We’re just trying to keep you all entertained until the main course arrives.