“What film do you think is going to take The Blind Side slot?”
It is automatically assumed that 2010 will produce another slot for a film like The Blind Side to slip in. You’ll have to forgive us. We know not what we do. We think that if we keep talking about the “no there there” Oscar race it will magically make reality, or truth, appear. It is simply too difficult to write over and over again, “I don’t know.”
I appreciate the effort, attention and hard work that goes into trying to have a voice in the Oscar race. Some are out there trying to create or generate buzz, others are out there hoping to be an authority on the buzz. And still others are out there trying to simply report on the buzz. I think we can all agree on one thing: We’ve become a snake eating its own tail.
Part of this is due to the fact that most outlets that cover movies also cover the Oscars now – they didn’t used to. In fact, it used to be way too lowly of a topic and not considered serious enough.¬† Now it’s the stock-in-trade specialty of sites like this one and In Contention, Movie City News and Hollywood-Elsewhere, not to mention Indiewire, The Wrap, etc. The internecine rivalries can be a story of their own, but it becomes a little crazy-making at times, . Right now is one of those times.
Many of the so-called Oscar movies haven’t even opened to the public yet. So Oscar strategy or prediction pieces are premature at best, mental masturbation at worst. And yet, here we are. Here we are.
One of the big themes this year is what film is going to take The Blind Side slot.
What does that mean exactly? It means that, despite us all hovering and groping of our crystal balls, none of us was able to foresee a nomination for The Blind Side for Best Picture (except, as noted, by Pete Hammond). I sort of have an excuse in that I didn’t actually see the film for myself the entire year. But now that I’ve seen it, I don’t know if I’d been able to predict it. It really is beneath even the AMPAS. So how it got in is a matter of trickery. The combination of we bloggers being asleep at the wheel, and the studio’s shrewd marketing tactics – avoiding the blogs and making a play directly to audiences. That worked, and it worked extremely well.
To this day, it is still the favorite film among white, middle class women in the heartland of America. I can cite my source for this but for now you’ll just have to take my word for it. That film appealed to a wide swath of our society — the Christians, football fans, and women – groups that aren’t often catered to by Hollywood. The Christians get no play but have deep pockets. Football fans don’t get a lot of play either, and women in the heartland? They get tossed a greasy bone now and again, but let’s face it: films still appeal more to 12 – 18 year-old boys than anyone else.
When the Blind Side took one of the ten slots for Best Picture it was time to stand back and say, okay. So they might give the Best Picture WIN to The Hurt Locker, but they are not above acknowledging a successful film, even if it isn’t critically acclaimed.
For this year, several films seem to be kicking around as potential Blind Side slot films.
The trouble with this theory is that The Blind Side was probably a one shot deal. There were so many competing factors. There isn’t a single film I can think of this year, not even Secretariat, that fits the bill. Movies that are successful like that seem accidental. In the film, the coach says of Michael Oher, “he’s going to make us all rich someday.” How did they know? The formula may have been too good to fail.
The Blind Side opens with a shot of a Christian school. The first thing we see is a cross. The last thing Sandra Bullock says in the movie is that she thanks God for how it all turned out. That direct communication with God, that blatant religion was on full display – when does that happen? It doesn’t really. So, first, this dynamic of God, football, and feelgood-ism is hardly ever present in any film. Second, films that do well in the Oscar race are usually PC, or left-leaning politically. Sometimes the movie can rise above the political objections, as Precious did last year, and A Beautiful Mind once did, as Crash did. Shouting bigotry, homophobia, racism doesn’t get you very far but the films themselves are usually at least sort of PC. The Blind Side, though, throws all of that out the window and says “this kind of story is valid too.”
I can’t pass judgment on a voting body that votes for the films they like. I know a lot of people who liked The Blind Side very much – it worked the way everyone hopes their movie will work: strong word of mouth translated into great box office. I am not sure this can be repeated.
If there was going to be a Blind Side slot, though, the films that might be in that category would be films with bigger issues than just entertainment. There would have to be something fairly serious at stake.
1. For Colored Girls –
What’s at stake? Black female identity in the US.
Box office potential: Off the charts
Stumbling block: Tyler Perry’s other films. No football.
2. Love and Other Drugs
What’s at stake? – pinning the pharmaceutical companies to the wall — canceled out for being a “liberal agenda”
Box office potential: OK
Stumbling block: some early bad reviews. No God. No football.
3. Secretariat
What’s at stake? Not enough – but a woman entering the man’s world of horse racing.
Box office: didn’t deliver as expected
Stumbling block: not enough God involved. No football.
4. How Do You Know?
What’s at stake? Girl meets boy A and boy B. Chooses one.
Box office: over $100 million probably
Stumbling block: A romcom – who cares? No God, no football.
5. The Town
What’s at stake? Boston thug escaping his bad neighborhood
Box office: closing in on $100 mil
Stumbling block: unsympathetic white people. No God, no football. Affleck is a known liberal.
