It’s hard to imagine that the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominations are just around the corner. The PGA should help clarify something about the Best Picture race, while the WGA could give us an indication as to where the original and adapted screenplays will be headed.
Last year was the first year for the PGA to go up to ten, and of those, only two were swapped out with AMPAS – Star Trek and Invictus became The Blind Side and A Serious man. Interesting choices there.
This year, how do you think it will go? We’ll probably post a nominee contest for the PGA and the DGA (announcing Jan. 10). But I would be very surprised if these weren’t on the list:
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Toy Story 3
The Kids Are All Right
And then maybe either The Town or 127 Hours.
The WGA is a bit more tricky. Last year was a wash-out because there were so many ineligible films, like Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds.
Of the original WGA nominees, only two went on to be nominated for Oscars. (500) Days of Summer, Avatar, The Hangover because Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger and Up.
In the adapted category, Crazy Heart, Julie & Julia, and Star Trek became An Education, District 9 and In the Loop. Whether this year will repeat or not, we know that Toy Story 3 nor How to Train Your Dragon will not be nominated for the WGA.
But the scripts that should get recognized are still many, depending on whether they end up being eligible or not. One never knows, does one.
But in the original category, we have:
Inception, The King’s Speech, Black Swan, The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right leading the pack.
The incredibly competitive adapted category includes The Social Network, 127 Hours, True Grit, Winter’s Bone, and The Town.
It doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibility that the noms will look like this, or thereabouts. But the changes we see could have a ripple effect on down the road. Will there be some kind of surprise nominations pop up, like for Greenberg or Scott Pilgrim or Somewhere or Blue Valentine? Hard to say.
As to what will win? We won’t know until we get there. Last year’s biggest shocker was The Hurt Locker beating Avatar at the PGA awards (and the WGA awards, it’s worth noting). If any film wins either of these two consecutively, as the Hurt Locker did, we know we’re getting close to a sweep. But even a sweep can be derailed in when the final winner is called. Such a thing makes the Oscars a crazy-making experience.
What we do know: things are about to get very hot in here.