Ebert has put both his predictions (thanks Ryan) and his Outguess Ebert contest online. ¬†I think there are more than a few smarty pants Oscar watchers out there who could make this a fair fight (“not unless we get out and swim”). ¬†GO FOR IT. ¬†In his predictions, Ebert goes for The King’s Speech to win — but makes a subtle, effective play for you-know-what:
If I were still doing ‚ÄúIf We Picked the Winners‚Äù with Gene Siskel, my preference for best film would be ‚ÄúThe Social Network.‚Äù It was not only the best film of 2010, but also one of those films that helps define a year. It became the presumed front-runner on the day it opened, but then it seemed to fade. Oscars often go to movies that open after Thanksgiving. It’s called the Persistence of Memory Effect.
There’s another factor. A lot of academy voters don’t choose the ‚Äúbest‚Äù in some categories, but ‚Äúthe most advantageous for the movie industry.‚Äù Hollywood churns out violent crap every weekend and then puts on a nice face by supporting a respectable picture at Oscar time. I mean that not as a criticism of ‚ÄúThe King’s Speech,‚Äù which is a terrific film, but as an observation. A British historical drama about a brave man struggling to overcome a disability and then leading his people into World War II looks better to the academy than a cutting-edge portrait of hyperactive nerds.
Worth noting: Ebert and David Carr were the only two I know of who accurately predicted (and famously predicted) the Crash upset.
Ebert’s other predictions:
Actor: Firth
Actress: Portman
Supporting Actor: Rush
Supporting Actress:  Steinfeld
Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Foreign Language: Incendies
Animated: Toy Story 3
Doc: Inside Job
Cinematography: Deakins
The rest from Ebert are here.
