Both the Gurus of Gold and Tom O’Neil’s Gold Derby have been assembling predictions. ¬†We will be building our Big Fat Predictions chart some time today. ¬†The interesting thing to note is that, while most of the predictors are predicting a split between The King’s Speech for Picture (seems all but a certainty) and a win for David Fincher for The Social Network – has there ever been a case where a respectable director swept the critics awards but lost the DGA then won the Oscar? ¬†I don’t think so. ¬†They are not in the business of doing anyone favors, as we’ve seen throughout their 83 year history. ¬†It’s more likely it will be The King’s Speech and Hooper, as Kris Tapley is predicting. ¬†Tapley is also predicting The King’s Speech to win in editing, which would definitely indicate a sweep. ¬†Anne Thompson is going out on a limb with two of her predictions – the first is Annette Bening for Best Actress and the second is Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech.
A few of us, a very small handful, like Pete Travers, Jeff Wells are sticking with The Social Network. ¬†For my part it’s a protest prediction. ¬†I know you owe it to your readers to pain an accurate picture but I will be in denial about this until the super duper big new fancy envelope is cracked open and they deliver the news: And the Oscar goes to The King’s Speech. ¬†At which point, the whole audience will stand up and cheer. ¬†I do predict a standing ovation for The King’s Speech. ¬†I can do that much. ¬†Check out the Gurus of Gold here, and Gold Derby here. ¬†We will be putting our chat later (by the way, when it doubt and for your office pool you could do a lot worse than predicting Kris Tapley all the way down the line, just saying…)
I have never actually done a protest prediction before. ¬†This will be a first. ¬†The closest I ever came was predicting The Departed to win because I couldn’t bear doing anything differently – but at least that had the DGA behind it. ¬†No, our contender tracker shows you who is most likely to succeed. ¬†I personally don’t care if I’m wrong in the big two categories. ¬†Changing my prediction to The King’s Speech at the last minute does nothing for my credibility either way; I wouldn’t be telling you all anything you don’t know. ¬†I am predicting The Social Network to win because I think it is the best film of 2010 and deserves to win. ¬†That is exactly the wrong way to predict the Oscars. They vote with their heart but you have to predict with your head – take all of your emotions out of it, think the way “they” think.
The general thinking about the Academy has always been a kind of condescending judgment of them – their choices are lame, basically. ¬†Most people predict the winners based on that assumption: that they don’t know what they’re doing and that they don’t know good cinematography and they don’t know good costuming and they don’t know a great film when they see one (how could they, given their history). ¬†It is 99% likely that it will go as planned – The King’s Speech to sweep.
A few categories I’m stuck on – like Supporting Actor and Actress. ¬†And the Sound categories. ¬†Will Sound go to Inception or will it go to True Grit or will sweep up along with The King’s Speech? ¬†Will editing go to The Social Network or will it go to The King’s Speech? ¬†There is no way to know these things. ¬†I do not claim to be any sort of expert, trust me.
The general consensus will sometimes reward you and it will sometimes fail you. ¬†You just have no way of knowing anything for sure. ¬†If The King’s Speech had won, say, the Globe or the National Board of Review (both of those it should have had no problem winning), or if The Social Network had won the DGA — it would be easier. ¬†But they are on such opposites you really have no choice but to go with the guilds because they represent the voting Academy better than the critics do.
Moreover, you have to go with “The People’s Choice.” ¬†In this case, the People’s Choice looks to be The King’s Speech much more so than The Social Network, which is the critics’ choice – like, by a mile. ¬†The Academy is much more like “The People” than it is the critics so there is your answer.