Our friend Marshall has once again done the research and built a chart.  Films with 12 nominations win, on average, six Oscars.  Gladiator is the only one that went into the race with 12, lost Director and won only 5 Oscars.  It probably would have won 6 if it had won Director.
So, for the King’s Speech, you are probably looking at: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, then maybe Supporting Actor (or Actress), and then any tech nod to get to just six. ¬†It should have no problem there, whether it’s Score or Art Direction or Costume or Cinematography or all of the above. ¬†The point here is that many predictors are only guessing on 3 wins for The King’s Speech.
There were two films during the years there were ten Best Picture nominees that went into the race with 12 nominations.  One was Song of Bernadette, which went up against Casablanca and lost.  The other was Mrs. Miniver, which went up against well, nothing as strong as Casblanca and it swept.
Gone with the Wind had 13 nominations and like Mrs. Miniver won Director. ¬†No film other than Gladiator in Oscar’s 83 year history has ever won Picture without Director.
So the pundits who are predicting a split are predicting something to happen that has only happened once. ¬†Also? What we know about The Social Network and its wins is this: there is no precedent for a Social Network loss. ¬†There is one precedent for a King’s Speech loss (Apollo 13 vs. Braveheart). Even though The Social Network lost all of the major guilds except the WGA, it still has a more reliable stat behind it. ¬†That stat is that no film has ever won the NBR, the NYFCC and the Globe and not also won Best Picture.
My conclusion is this: if you’re going to predict The King’s Speech, predict a sweep. ¬†Predict it to win, at the very least, 6 Oscars — WITH Director and Screenplay and Actor. ¬†Otherwise, go with The Social Network and Fincher. ¬†A split is rare to begin with, and it did happen more when there were ten Best Picture nominees.
Meanwhile, one last note of interest.  When the Song of Bernadette headed into the race with the whopping 12 nominations, it was expected to win.  But here is how Damien Bona and Mason Wiley put it in Inside Oscar:
Producer Sidney Franklin announced that the winner of the Best Picture Award was Casablanca, the Los Angeles Herald-Express reported that the audience “gasped in amazement, then quickly regained its composure and heartily applauded the unexpected results.” The UPI concurred: “Casablanca was a dark horse. ¬†Jack Warner seemed as surprised as everyone else when the plaster Oscar was thrust in his hand.”
And for Mrs. Miniver – it was clear early on that a sweep was afoot:
At this point, Mrs. Miniver had notched four wins and, with the acting Awards coming up, Bob Hope joked, “If Mrs. Miniver keeps up like this the government will put a ceiling on statuettes.”
And of course, there was much ado after the awards were handed out, funnily enough:
When a reporter asked one independent producer who won the Awards, the mini-mogul replied, “The Giants.” The New York World Telegram felt that the 4500 extras who got to vote on Best Picture, Best Song and the Acting Awards held an imbalance of power. ¬†The paper scoffed, “That means the actors’ taste prevails. Mrs. Miniver had the showy quality and nobility dear to any actor’s heart.”
Hedda Hopper, who had earlier voiced her support for William Wyler, now wanted to know why the Academy saw fit to honor a movie which wasn’t even about Americans. ¬†The Hollywood Citizen News further degraded the Academy’s choice, pointing out, “And the cruelest blow of all is the report in England — among the ‘common people’ with whom it was supposed to deal –Mrs. Miniver has been a failure.”
Funny, ain’t it? ¬†Come on, just a little?
1943
- SONG OF BERNADETTE – 12 nominations – wins 4: Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography and Score, nominated for editing
- FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS – 9 nominations, including editing, but no director, no screenplay, 1 win for supporting.
- CASABLANCA-8 nominations. 3 wins for Picture, Director, Screenplay, 2 acting nominations, editing
- MADAME CURIE – 7 nominations, including acting, but no director, writer or editing.
- THE MORE THE MERRIER – 6 nominations, including writing, acting and directing, won Supporting Actor, no editing.
- THE HUMAN COMEDY – 5 nominations, 1 win (for writing, William Saroyan), including director, no editing
- HEAVEN CAN WAIT – 3 nominations, including director, no editing, no screenplay
- WATCH ON THE RHINE – 4 nominations, including writing (Dashiell Hammett) and acting, 1 win, acting. NY Film critics pick for Best Pic.
- IN WHICH WE SERVE – 2 nominations (one honorary win for Noel Coward), screenplay nom, no editing.
- THE OX BOW INCIDENT – 1 nomination
1942
- MRS. MINIVER – nominated for 12 Oscars – 6 wins for Picture, Director (Wyler), Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress, & Cinematography
- THE PRIDE OF THE YANKEES – 11 nominations – 1 solitary Oscar win for Best Editing
- YANKEE DOODLE DANDY – 8 nominations, including Director (Curtiz) – 3 wins, including Best Actor (Cagney)
- RANDOM HARVEST – 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Director – 0 wins
- THE TALK OF THE TOWN – 7 nominations, 0 wins
- THE MAGNIFICENT AMBERSONS – 4 nominations, including Cinematography & Supporting Actress (Agnes Morehead)
- WAKE ISLAND – 4 nominations, including Director
- THE PIED PIPER – nominated for 3 Oscars, including Best Actor
- THE 49th PARALLEL – 3 nominations – won Best Writing, Original Story (but lost Best Writing, Screenplay).
- KINGS ROW – 3 nominations, including Best Director
1941 (a.k.a. “the year that will live in infamy”)
- SERGEANT YORK – 11 nominations – 2 wins, Editing & Actor (Cooper)
- HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY – 10 nominations – 5 wins, for Best Picture, Director (Ford), Cinematography, Art Direction, Best Supp Actor (Crisp)
- CITIZEN KANE – 10 nominations – 1 win for Screenplay (Welles & Mankiewicz) – NY Film critics pick for Best Picture
- THE LITTLE FOXES – 9 nominations – 0 wins
- HERE COMES MR. JORDAN – 7 nominations – 2 wins, for Best Story, Best Screenplay
- HOLD BACK THE DAWN – 6 nominations
- BLOSSOMS IN THE DUST – 4 nominations – 1 win
- THE MALTESE FALCON – 3 nominations
- ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN – and living up to its title: 1 nomination
- SUSPICION– 3 nominations – 1 win, Actress (Joan Fontaine)
1940 -SPLIT
- REBECCA – 11 nominations, including Hitchcock’s 1st Oscar nom, Editing & Screenplay – only 2 wins, for Best Picture and Cinematography
- THE GRAPES OF WRATH – 7 nominations, including Screenplay & Editing – 2 wins, including Best Director (Ford)
- THE LETTER – 7 nominations – 0 wins
- FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT – 6 nominations -0 wins
- THE LONG VOYAGE HOME – 6 nominations – 0 wins
- OUR TOWN – 6 nominations – 0 wins
- THE PHILADELPHIA STORY – 6 nominations – 2 wins, including Screenplay
- THE GREAT DICTATOR – 5 nominations – 0 wins
- KITTY FOYLE – 5 nominatins – 1 win, Actress (Ginger Rogers)
- ALL THIS, AND HEAVEN TOO – 3 nominations – 0 wins
* (Best Editing in 1940 went to North West Mounted Police — so AMPAS was all over the map)
1939
- GONE WITH THE WIND – 13 nominations – 8 wins, for Best Director, Screenplay, Editing, Actress, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography
- MR. SMITH GOES TO WASHINGTON – 11 noms – 1 win, Original Story
- WUTHERING HEIGHTS – 8 noms – 1 win, for b&w Cinematography (Toland)
- GOODBYE, MR. CHIPS – 7 noms – 1 win, Best Actor (Donat)
- STAGECOACH – 7 noms – 2 wins, incl. Supporting Actor
- THE WIZARD OF OZ – 6 noms – for Score & Song
- LOVE AFFAIR – 6 noms – 0 wins
- NINOTCHKA – 4 noms – 0 wins
- OF MICE AND MEN – 4 noms – 0 wins
- DARK VICTORY – 3 noms – 0 wins
1938
- YOU CAN’T TAKE IT WITH YOU – 7 nominations – 2 wins, including Best Director (Capra)
- ALEXANDER’S RAGTIME BAND – 6 noms – 1 win
- BOYS TOWN – 5 noms – 2 wins, Best Supp Actor & Screenplay
- JEZEBEL – 5 noms – 2 wins, incl. Best Actress (Davis)
- FOUR DAUGHTERS – 5 noms – 0 wins
- PYGMALION 4 noms – 1 win, Screenplay
- THE ADVENTURES OF ROBIN HOOD – 4 nominations – 3 wins, incl. Best Editing
- THE CITADEL – 4 noms
- TEST PILOT – 3 noms – 0 wins
- GRAND ILLUSION – 1 nomination
1937 — SPLIT
- THE LIFE OF EMILE ZOLA – 10 nominations, including Director & Actor – 3 wins, including Best Screenplay
- LOST HORIZON – 7 noms – 2 wins, incl. Best Editing
- A STAR IS BORN – 8 noms – 2 wins
- IN OLD CHICAGO – 6 noms – 2 wins
- THE GOOD EARTH – 5 noms – 2 wins, Actress (Rainer) & Cinematography (Freund)
- ONE HUNDRED MEN AND A GIRL – 5 noms – 1 win
- THE AWFUL TRUTH – 5 nominations, incl Screenplay & Editing – 1 win, Best Director (McCarey)
- CAPTAINS COURAGEOUS – 4 noms – 1 win, Actor (Tracy)
- DEAD END – 4 noms – 0 wins
- STAGE DOOR – 4 noms
1936 – SPLIT
- THE GREAT ZIEGFELD – 7 nominations – 3 wins, incl. “Best Dance Direction” (hmm)
ANTHONY ADVERSE – 7 noms – 4 wins, incl. Best Editing - DODSWORTH – 7 noms – 1 win
- SAN FRANCISCO – 6 noms – 1 win
- MR. DEEDS GOES TO TOWN – 5 noms, incl. Screenplay – 1 win, Best Director (Capra)
- ROMEO AND JULIET – 4 noms – 0 wins
- THE STORY OF LOUIS PASTEUR – 4 noms – 3 wins, incl. Best Story & Best Screenplay
- THREE SMART GIRLS – 3 noms – 0 wins
- A TALE OF TWO CITIES – 2 wins – 0 wins
- LIBELED LADY – 1 nom – 0 wins
1935 – SPLIT
- MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY – 8 nominations, – 1 win, Best Picture
- NAUGHTY MARIETTA – 8 noms – 2 wins
- THE LIVES OF A BENGAL LANCER – 8 noms – 2 wins
- THE INFORMER – 6 noms, incl Editing – 4 wins, including Director (Ford) & Screenplay
- CAPTAIN BLOOD – 5 noms – 0 wins
- LES MIS√âRABLES – 4 noms – 0 wins
- A MIDSUMMER NIGHT’S DREAM – 4 noms – 2 wins, incl. Editing
- TOP HAT – 4 noms – 0 wins
- BROADWAY MELODY OF 1936 – 3 noms – 1 win
- DAVID COPPERFIELD – 3 noms – 0 wins
- ALICE ADAMS – 2 noms – 0 wins
- RUGGLES OF RED GAP – 1 nom – o wins
1934
- ONE NIGHT OF LOVE – 6 noms – 2 wins
- IT HAPPENED ONE NIGHT – nominated for 5 Oscars – won all 5, incl Director (Capra)
- CLEOPATRA – 5 noms – 1 win, Cinematography
- THE GAY DIVORC√âE – 5 noms – 1 win
- THE THIN MAN – 4 noms – 0 wins
- VIVA VILLA! – 4 noms – 1 win
- IMITATION OF LIFE – 3 noms – 0 wins
- FLIRTATION WALK – 2 noms – 0 wins
- THE WHITE PARADE – 2 noms – 0 wins
- THE BARRETTS OF WIMPOLE STREET – 2 noms – 0 wins
- HERE COMES THE NAVY – 1 nom – 0 wins
- THE HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD – 1 nom
*(the 1934 Oscar for Best Editing went to Eskimo)
1932-33
- CAVALCADE – 4 nominations – 3 wins, incl. Best Director
- A FAREWELL TO ARMS – 2 noms – 0 wins
- 42ND STREET – 4 noms – 0 wins
- I AM A FUGITIVE FROM A CHAIN GANG – 3 noms – 0 wins
- LADY FOR A DAY – 4 noms – 0 wins
- LITTLE WOMEN – 3 noms – 1 win
- THE PRIVATE LIFE OF HENRY VIII – 2 noms – 1 win, Actor (Laughton)
- SHE DONE HIM WRONG – 1 nom – 0 wins
- SMILIN’ THROUGH – 1 nom – 0 wins
- STATE FAIR – 1 nom – 0 wins