There are several factors you look at when comparing Oscar contenders. Box office, critical consensus, the gravitas/prestige factor and the popularity of the stars and filmmakers. It doesn’t matter how good the reviews are on an obscure film if the Oscar voters will never go near it with a ten foot pole (it will be more appealing to the Spirit Awards). It also doesn’t matter if a film made a lot of money if it isn’t also “respectable” or “groundbreaking.” The only thing that can make a difference is if the film gets near the Dark Knight, Titanic and Avatar numbers. The Dark Knight briefly changed the way the Academy chose Best Picture. They went with ten, now they’re going back to a system that looks a lot more like five. In other words, according to a publicist I talked to, they’re trying to go back to the old way without it looking like they made a mistake.
The question is, if this were the Oscars of old, as in five contenders only, would any of the films released before November have a shot? It’s really too early to look at these films within the context of the full year but let’s see how it’s shaking down anyway.
But let’s get down to it, shall we? By the numbers for films that have opened so far – I’m ranking them in order of how I think they’ll go down in the awards race.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Box Office: $379,245,610
Critics Choice: 93
Metacritic: 87%
RT: 96%
Yahoo Audience rating: A- (3237 ratings)
Goodwill/Prestige – Harry Potter stars some of the best actors working in film, including Potter series regulars who deserve recognition, like Alan Rickman and Ralph Fiennes, to name just two. This beautiful end to the successful series is better rated in every aspect than any of the other films in the series. Honoring it is a way of honoring the whole series.
Why it will: If it hits the critics awards and begins to gain momentum it could start to be seen as a film people want to honor. If it makes the Golden Globes or the PGA it could be taken more seriously early on in the race, enough so that Academy members might say — you know, I had no idea what was going on but these films were truly something special so I’m going to give my vote to Harry Potter.
Why it won’t: The movies are faithful to the books. They aren’t dumbed down for non-readers to enjoy – they don’t have to be. These are movies made for fans of the book. To immerse yourself in the Potter world is to have the filmmakers get it right. They get it right and it made the films successful but it has left many adults who have no idea who any of the characters are completely lost. With ten slots, it had a much better chance of being named one of the best ten of the year. With the new method, though, it has to have enough number 1 votes to make it through the first round and then more number 2 and even 3 votes. It’s hard to imagine any number of Academy members going that way. Still, because it scores so high in every one of these markers, one has to take it seriously to a degree as a contender.
Moneyball
Domestic gross so far: $38,268,538
Critics Choice: 91
Metacritic: 87%
RT: 95%
Yahoo Audience rating: B+ (390 rating)
Goodwill/Popularity/Prestige – it’s a film starting out already with an Oscar-nominated director and two Oscar winning screenwriters, one Oscar-winning actor in a supporting role. Oscar-winning Scott Rudin is the exec and one of the producers. That automatically puts it high on the prestige list. But also, Bennett Miller is already “in the club” as they say, which means Moneyball will be taken more seriously as an “awards contender.” Film purists who hate we Oscar bloggers hate that we treat it like a sports competition but it always was one. There has always been an awards race, since the Oscars began.
Why it will: Moneyball is helped by goodwill for both Billy Beane himself (not so much for the way he changed baseball by baseball purists) and for Brad Pitt, who gives the performance of his career as Beane. It is filled with a lot of SAG actors which means, I’m guessing, it will hit with SAG too. So it will get a PGA nod, a SAG nod for Pitt, maybe Jonah Hill, and then it’s possible, if all of the other films don’t do so well, Bennett Miller will get a DGA nod. If all of that happens, well, of course it will be a Best Pic contender. The Oscar race makes more sense when you start with what you know versus what you don’t know.
Why it won’t: Some Oscar predictors think it’s a movie about baseball and those don’t do well with Academy members. They also think other Oscar movies coming forward will cancel it out. Possible. I doubt it.
Midnight in Paris
Domestic gross: $54,516,707
Critics Choice: 85
Metacritic: 81%
RT: 92%
Yahoo Audience rating: A- (1468 rating)
Goodwill/Popularity/Prestige – Woody Allen’s highest grossing film to date. But more than that, it’s coming in as a favorite by a good many people already. It’s bound to hit many of the top tens at the end of the year. Allen’s trademark writing, brilliantly remembered icons, Paris, romance…it sends you away with one of the sweetest “messages” of the year, all about living in the now because someday the now we’re living will be nostalgic to younger generations. This and The Artist are the two films that send you out of the theater smiling. I asked a prominent film critic in Telluride what his favorite film of the year was and he named Paris.
Why it will: It is one of the most loved films of the year — it seems to have withstood months and months of other films being released and managed to still resonate. Because it’s a movie so many people like by a director who is beloved.
Why it won’t: Will Academy members want a more serious Woody Allen movie for Best Pic? Will the coming-next film wipe it clean away?
The Help
Box Office: 159,357
Critics Choice: 89
Metacritic: 62
RT: 74%
Yahoo Audience rating: A (3574 ratings)
Goodwill/Popularity/Prestige – there is very little prestige to it, since the director, Tate Taylor, is an unknown. But what it has going for it is that it is a female-driven story with great performances by Viola Davis, Jessica Chastain, Octavia Spencer and Emma Stone. It so rarely happens that any film with strong female leads like this makes this kind of coin. It’s strong on public opinion, not so great on critics. Would sail into the ten with ease. But if we’re talking number one votes it might be harder. Or it might be the one film that gets in without a director nomination, so that there would be six, maybe seven Best Picture contenders. But it’s a wild card, this way of choosing Best Picture, so we really don’t know how it will end up. But thinking five rather than ten is probably a better approach.
Why it will: Because many of the not-so-many female members of the Academy might vote for it both because they liked it best but also to support a film that is driven by an all-female cast.
Why it won’t: doesn’t it need a star director? Is it respectable enough? Sure, with ten slots it’s an easy call but the new way?
Drive
Box Office: $26,813,315
Critics Choice: 91
Metacritic: 79%
RT: 93%
Yahoo Audience rating: B- (1241 ratings)
Goodwill/Popularity/Prestige – the best thing Drive has going for it is that its director, Nicolas Winding Refn, is the wunkerkind of the moment. Love for Ryan Gosling is also helping the film become one of the year’s successes. It does not have the support of the major critics in Los Angeles and New York, which could hurt it when it comes to the big critics awards. More importantly, their taste could reflect the taste of the Academy.
Why it will: it is sure to be a number 1 movie if it’s anything. It is topical, has actual buzz.
Why it won’t: isn’t universally “liked” enough.
Tree of Life
Box Office: $13,228,329
Critics Choice: 78
Metacritic: 85%
RT: 85%
Yahoo Audience rating: C+ (1023 ratings)
Goodwill/Popularity/Prestige – Terrence Malick and his grand ambition – can they really be ignored even if the reception for the film is much lower than it was projected to be out of Cannes? This Palme d’or winner will go down in history as one of the most memorable films of the year. But with the new system, can it earn enough number 1s?
Why it will: those who love the film really really love it. It’s boomer fare, which is right in the Academy’s wheelhouse. It’s brilliantly directed — like nothing else you’ll see this year. It is sure to be a number 1 if it’s anything.
Why it won’t: movies need a plot, usually, to be liked by that many people. Last year, no film with lower than a B- on yahoo movies was nominated. Does that mean everything? No. But it doesn’t mean nothing.
My instincts tell me that The Help and Midnight in Paris could be among those named for Best Picture. If there were five nominees, though, Midnight in Paris might be the one with the edge. But for the film that could have a corresponding Screenplay and Director nomination, I’d have to go with Moneyball and Tree of Life.
But this is an unfinished story. There are many more movies left that haven’t yet opened to the public. Since the race is fluid, these films that did so well on the festival circuit might not do well in the race. And films that haven’t yet been seen might turn out to be the masterpieces we’ve been waiting for. There is no way to tell here in October.
If they were doing ten again, I’d think it would be:
The Descendants*
Moneyball*
The Artist*
The Ides of March*
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
War Horse
J Edgar
Midnight in Paris*
And then maybe Tinker Tailer, Soldier, Spy, Harry Potter*, maybe Drive*, maybe Tree of Life*
I’ve starred the films I’ve personally seen. But the new system isn’t going for ten. It’s for their preference of number 1s. So we don’t how it’s going to go. There has never been an Oscar year where they chose their Best Picture that way. It’s a blind call, a crap shoot. Nobody knows anything.
