DGA Preview: Why I Think Tate Taylor Will Be Nominated

It occurred to me moments ago that Tate Taylor has every reason to, in fact, be nominated for the DGA when they are announced next week. [I didn’t know it because I never saw his Tweet but In Contention’s Kris Tapley came to this conclusion yesterday but recently posted his predictions to include Tate Taylor. Other than the two of us, though, most people would consider this an upset if it came to pass].

In looking back over Oscar history since the PGA began only one film has ever gotten the PGA, the SAG ensemble and Best Picture and not gotten a DGA nod and that was Lasse Hallstrom for The Cider House Rules. That film was neck and neck with Spike Jonze’s Being John Malkovich. In the end, both directors got Oscar noms but only Jonze got the DGA. This year, there wouldn’t have been a problem putting both films in the Best Pic category. The way voting is allows for both. But we’re still looking at which movie is the Spike Jonze film and which is the Hallstrom. If The Help is the Cider House Rules (I think it’s a lot stronger than that) then another film might take that DGA slot.

At any rate, you can look at the charts below. But I think there is no reason to not predict Tate Taylor other than the fact that he isn’t well known enough. The Help is beloved across the board. It made upwards of $160 million and will be a very strong Best Picture contender. If it was anyone but an unknown like Taylor there wouldn’t even be a discussion.

The way I look at it is this — the locks are: Martin Scorsese, Hugo – the film I believe to be 2011’s best and one of Scorsese’s best.
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist – a great achievement and delightful experience
Alexander Payne, The Descendants – the height of his brilliant career so far

From there, there are two slots open. One will probably go to Woody Allen, for his beautifully realized Midnight in Paris. The other slot is saved for Steven Spielberg. This means that Tate Taylor would bump Spielberg for War Horse. It seems improbable that this would happen. Taylor could bump Woody Allen too, I suppose. But given The Help’s very strong showing in the guild nominations so far it is the logical choice, even if not the intuitive one, to predict him for the DGA. Therefore, I have no choice but to dump either Steven Spielberg or Woody Allen, and that’s going to be hard to do. In the end, I have to go with the film I think is the better movie overall and that’s Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris. I fully expect Spielberg to be nominated but I can’t make it work with the math.

If Tate Taylor is snubbed but The Help still nominated for Best Picture (which it should be), it will only the second time since the PGA formed (which isn’t that long ago, granted) that such a phenom has occurred. I’m also not entirely certain Bennett Miller for the beautiful Moneyball or David Fincher for the dark thriller Dragon Tattoo won’t be included. I’m basing my predictions on history mostly. Certainly Terrence Malick could show up here too. It would be unusual but so what. Unusual things happen all of the time.

The directors are key to deciding how the Best Picture race goes. It is down to three groups, usually – the actors, the directors and the writers. The directors are the most influential, of course. The Ace Eddie, and the editing nomination, are right in there with the directors. Then there are the actors – the biggest group in the Academy. The Descendants, The Artist and The Help are the three strongest contenders right now, hitting all three guilds. Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and Dragon Tattoo feel strong too.

Tate Taylor also has a great “Oscar story” in that he grew up with The Help’s author, Kathryn Stockett, and took her manuscript before it was even published and said, “I want to direct this.” When the book hit big, the studio wanted Taylor out and more well known director in. But he held his ground and eventually won out. He’s directed one film and a short prior to The Help.

2009