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DGA Preview: Why I Think Tate Taylor Will Be Nominated

by Sasha Stone
January 5, 2012
in DGA
95
DGA Preview: Why I Think Tate Taylor Will Be Nominated

 

It occurred to me moments ago that Tate Taylor has every reason to, in fact, be nominated for the DGA when they are announced next week. [I didn’t know it because I never saw his Tweet but In Contention’s Kris Tapley came to this conclusion yesterday but recently posted his predictions to include Tate Taylor.  Other than the two of us, though, most people would consider this an upset if it came to pass].

In looking back over Oscar history since the PGA began only one film has ever gotten the PGA, the SAG ensemble and Best Picture and not gotten a DGA nod and that was Lasse Hallstrom for The Cider House Rules.  That film was neck and neck with Spike Jonze’s Being John Malkovich.  In the end, both directors got Oscar noms but only Jonze got the DGA.  This year, there wouldn’t have been a problem putting both films in the Best Pic category.  The way voting is allows for both.  But we’re still looking at which movie is the Spike Jonze film and which is the Hallstrom. If The Help is the Cider House Rules (I think it’s a lot stronger than that) then another film might take that DGA slot.

At any rate, you can look at the charts below.  But I think there is no reason to not predict Tate Taylor other than the fact that he isn’t well known enough.  The Help is beloved across the board.  It made upwards of $160 million and will be a very strong Best Picture contender.  If it was anyone but an unknown like Taylor there wouldn’t even be a discussion.

The way I look at it is this — the locks are: Martin Scorsese, Hugo – the film I believe to be 2011’s best and one of Scorsese’s best.
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist – a great achievement and delightful experience
Alexander Payne, The Descendants – the height of his brilliant career so far

From there, there are two slots open. One will probably go to Woody Allen, for his beautifully realized Midnight in Paris. The other slot  is saved for Steven Spielberg.  This means that Tate Taylor would bump Spielberg for War Horse. It seems improbable that this would happen. Taylor could bump Woody Allen too, I suppose.  But given The Help’s very strong showing in the guild nominations so far it is the logical choice, even if not the intuitive one, to predict him for the DGA.  Therefore, I have no choice but to dump either Steven Spielberg or Woody Allen, and that’s going to be hard to do.  In the end, I have to go with the film I think is the better movie overall and that’s Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris.  I fully expect Spielberg to be nominated but I can’t make it work with the math.

If Tate Taylor is snubbed but The Help still nominated for Best Picture (which it should be), it will only the second time since the PGA formed (which isn’t that long ago, granted) that such a phenom has occurred.  I’m also not entirely certain Bennett Miller for the beautiful Moneyball or David Fincher for the dark thriller Dragon Tattoo won’t be included. I’m basing my predictions on history mostly.  Certainly Terrence Malick could show up here too.  It would be unusual but so what. Unusual things happen all of the time.

The directors are key to deciding how the Best Picture race goes. It is down to three groups, usually – the actors, the directors and the writers. The directors are the most influential, of course.  The Ace Eddie, and the editing nomination, are right in there with the directors.  Then there are the actors – the biggest group in the Academy. The Descendants, The Artist and The Help are the three strongest contenders right now, hitting all three guilds.  Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and Dragon Tattoo feel strong too.

Tate Taylor also has a great “Oscar story” in that he grew up with The Help’s author, Kathryn Stockett, and took her manuscript before it was even published and said, “I want to direct this.” When the book hit big, the studio wanted Taylor out and more well known director in. But he held his ground and eventually won out. He’s directed one film and a short prior to The Help.

2009

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Inception The Kids Are All Right Inception Inception/Kids Are All Right
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds
An Education An Education Avatar Avatar
Precious Precious Precious Precious
Up in the Air Nine Up in the Air Up in the Air
Avatar Avatar Avatar

 

2008

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Danny Boyle Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button David Fincher Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight Doubt Christopher Nolan The Reader
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon Ron Howard Frost/Nixon
Milk Milk Gus Van Sant Milk

2007

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

No Country No Country Joel and Ethan Coen No Country
There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood Paul Thomas Anderson There Will Be Blood
Diving Bell American Gangster Julian Schnabel Atonement
Juno Into the Wild Sean Penn Juno
Michael Clayton 3:10 to Yuma Tony Gilroy Michael Clayton

2006
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Departed The Departed Martin Scorsese The Departed
Babel Babel Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Babel
Dreamgirls Dreamgirls Bill Condon Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine Little Miss Sunshine Jonathan Dayton/Valeri Faris Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen Bobby Stephen Frears The Queen

2005

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee Brokeback Mountain
Crash Crash Paul Haggis Crash
Capote Capote Bennett Miller Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck Good Night George Clooney Good Night
Walk the Line Hustle and Flow
Steven Spielberg Munich

2004

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Aviator The Aviator Martin Scorsese The Aviator
Million $ Baby Million $ Baby Clint Eastwood Million $ Baby
Finding Neverland Finding Neverland Stephen Daldry Finding Neverland
Sideways Sideways Alexander Payne Sideways
The Incredibles Ray Taylor Hackford Ray
Hotel Rwanda

2003

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Last Samurai In America Sofia Coppola Lost in Translation
ROTK ROTK Peter Jackson Return of the King
Mystic River Mystic River Clint Eastwood Mystic River
Master and Commander The Station Agent Peter Weir Master and Commander
Seabiscuit Seabiscuit Gary Ross Seabiscuit
Cold Mountain

2002

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Adaptation Adaptation Roman Polanski The Pianist
Chicago Chicago Rob Marshall Chicago
Gangs of New York Martin Scorsese Gangs of New York
Two Towers Two Towers Peter Jackson Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding Greek Wedding
Road to Perdition The Hours Stephen Daldry The Hours

2001

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard A Beautiful Mind
The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings Peter Jackson The Lord of the Rings
Harry Potter Gosford Park Christopher Nolan Gosford Park
Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge Baz Luhrmann Moulin Rouge
Shrek In the Bedroom Ridley Scott In the Bedroom

2000

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Gladiator Gladiator Gladiator Gladiator
Traffic Steven Soderbergh Traffic (won director)
Erin Brockovich Steven Soderbergh Erin Brockovich
Billy Elliot Billy Elliot
Almost Famous Almost Famous Cameron Crowe
Crouching Tiger Ang Lee Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Chocolat Chocolat

1999

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Cider House Rules Cider House Rules The Cider House Rules
American Beauty American Beauty Sam Mendes American Beauty
The Insider Magnolia Michael Mann The Insider
The Green Mile Frank Darabont The Green Mile
The Hurricane M. Night Shyamalan The Sixth Sense
Being john Malkovich Being John Malkovich Being John Malkovich

1998

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Waking Ned Divine Waking Ned Divine Peter Weir Elizabeth
Shakespeare In Love Shakes in Love John Madden Shakespeare In Love
Gods and Monsters Little Voice Terrence Malick The Thin Red Line
Life Is Beautiful Life is Beautiful Roberto Benigni Life Is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan Steven Spielberg Saving Private Ryan (director winner)

1997

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Titanic Boogie Nights James Cameron Titanic
Amistad The Full Monty Steven Spielberg The Full Monty
L. A. Confidential LA Confidential Curtis Hanson L. A. Confidential
As Good As It Gets As Good as it Gets James L. Brooks As Good as it Gets
Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting Gus Van Sant Good Will Hunting

1996

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Fargo Marvin’s Room Joel Coen Fargo
Shine Shine Scott Hicks Shine
Hamlet Sling Blade Mike Leigh Secrets & Lies
The People vs. Larry Flynt The Birdcage Cameron Crowe Jerry Maguire
The English Patient The English Patient Anthony Minghella The English Patient

1995

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Leaving Las Vegas Mike Figgis Babe
Dead Man Walking Get Shorty Mel Gibson Braveheart
Apollo 13 Apollo 13 Ron Howard Apollo 13
Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility Ang Lee Sense and Sensibility
Il Postino Michael Radford Il Postino
The Bridges of Madison County How to Make an American Quilt
The American President Nixon

1994

PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

EXACT MATCH

Four Weddings and a Funeral Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral Four Weddings and a Funeral
Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Forrest Gump
Quiz Show Robert Redford for Quiz Show Quiz Show
Pulp Fiction Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Pulp Fiction
The Shawshank Redemption Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption The Shawshank Redemption

1993

PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Fugitive Andrew Davis for The Fugitive The Fugitive
Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Schindler’s List
The Remains Of the Day James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day The Remains Of the Day
The Piano Jane Campion for The Piano The Piano
In the Name Of the Father Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence In the Name Of the Father

1992

PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

A Few Good Men Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men A Few Good Men
The Crying Game Neil Jordan for The Crying Game The Crying Game
Unforgiven Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Unforgiven
Scent Of a Woman Robert Altman for The Player Scent Of a Woman
Howards End James Ivory for Howards End Howards End

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Sasha Stone

Sasha Stone

Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.

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