Looking at last year’s list, the asterisk means around 3/4 for the time that name will result in a nomination. I looked back at what got an asterisk last year and the year before and what went on to get nominated. Oscar heat seems to make the difference that can push a contender into a nomination with no asterisk next to his or her name. I then will include the BAFTA long list with just the asterisks. I’ll leave it to you to figure out who will make it and who will get bumped.
Here is how it went down last year.
Best FILM:
Black Swan (*director)
Inception (*director)
The King’s Speech (*director)
The Social Network (*director)
True Grit
4/5 – 127 Hours had the asterisk instead of True Grit.
Best DIRECTOR
Black Swan (*director)
Inception (*director)
The King’s Speech (*director)
The Social Network (*director)
127 Hours (*director)
5/5
Best ACTOR
Jarvier Bardem – Biutiful (*actor)
Jeff Bridges – True Grit (*actor)
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (*actor)
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (*actor)
James Franco – 127 Hours (*actor)
5/5
LEADING ACTRESS
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (*actress)
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (*actress)
Natalie Portman – Black Swan (*actress)
Noomi Rapace – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
3/5
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Fighter (* S Actor)
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (* S Actor)
Pete Postlethwaite – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (* S Actor)
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (* S Actor)
4/5
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Fighter (* S. actress)
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (* S. actress)
Barbara Hershey – Black Swan (* S. actress)
Lesley Manville – Another Year (* S. actress)
Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham (* S. actress)
The year prior:
Avatar (* for director)
An Education (* for director)
The Hurt Locker (* for director)
Precious
Up in the Air
3/5 – A Prophet and District 9 had asterisks instead
James Cameron (Avatar)*
Neill Blomkamp (District 9)*
Lone Scherfig (An Education)*
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)*
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
4/5 (A Prophet had an asterisk instead of Basterds)
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)*
Colin Firth (A Single Man)*
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)*
Andy Serkis (Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll)*
4/5 Morgan Freeman has the asterisk, got dumped in favor of the Oscar-bound Bridges.
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Audrey Tautou (Coco Before Chanel)
4/5 – Tautou took Abbie Cornish’s spot
So therefore, from today’s long list we can deduce that the nominees will be, more or less, give or take:
Best Film
The Artist*
Drive*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
We Need to Talk About Kevin*
(going by director)
Leading Actor
Brad Pitt (Billy Beane) – Moneyball*
Gary Oldman (George Smiley) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
George Clooney (Matt King) – The Descendants*
Jean Dujardin (George Valentin) – The Artist*
Michael Fassbender (Brandon) – Shame*
Leading Actress
Bérénice Bejo (Peppy Miller) – The Artist*
Meryl Streep (Margaret Thatcher) – The Iron Lady*
Michelle Williams (Marilyn Monroe) – My Week with Marilyn*
Tilda Swinton (Eva) – We Need to Talk About Kevin*
Viola Davis (Aibileen Clark) – The Help*
Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer (Hal) – Beginners*
Eddie Marsan (James) – Tyrannosaur*
Jonah Hill (Peter Brand) – Moneyball*
Kenneth Branagh (Sir Laurence Olivier) – My Week with Marilyn*
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Paul Zara) – The Ides of March*
Supporting Actress
Bryce Dallas Howard (Hilly Holbrook) – The Help*
Jessica Chastain (Celia Foote) – The Help*
Judi Dench (Dame Sybil Thorndike) – My Week with Marilyn*
Melissa McCarthy (Megan) – Bridesmaids*
Octavia Spencer (Minny Jackson) – The Help*
Zoe Wanamaker (Paula Strasberg) – My Week with Marilyn*
Director
The Artist*
Drive*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
We Need to Talk About Kevin*
Original Screenplay
The Artist*
Bridesmaids*
The Guard*
Midnight in Paris*
Young Adult*
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants*
The Help*
The Ides of March*
Moneyball*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
Cinematography
The Artist*
Drive*
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
Editing
The Artist*
Drive*
Hugo*
Senna*
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy*
Production Design
The Artist*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
War Horse*
Make Up & Hair
The Artist*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
The Iron Lady*
My Week with Marilyn*
Costume Design
Anonymous*
The Artist*
Hugo*
Jane Eyre*
My Week with Marilyn*
Sound
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
War Horse*
Special Visual Effects
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
Rise of the Planet of the Apes*
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
Original Music
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
The Artist*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
War Horse*
Documentary
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Life in a Day
Pina
Project Nim
Senna
Animated Film
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
Arthur Christmas*
Rango*
We will compare our list with the nominees to see how the asterisks fare.
Forgot something. Hoffman over Brooks and Rickman? Seriously? I mean, Rickman’s British. And Brooks was amazing.
I have a gut feeling that HP will get to at least 6. Hopefully. And at least two wins. Just nominate it for British Film, for the love of God.
0 Oscar Wins is unlikely; what other effect-heavy movie will the Academy give Effects to?
@JMC – I was pondering the same myself: which film can beat The Artist for Best Picture win. I agree 100% that Moneyball on paper is the best bet, and yet so far it’s kind of weak, might get a BP nom but director is not likely to get in. So that doesn’t make it a strong contender.
War Horse is a possibility, although it feels to me like it’s going to be one of those well-respected films that get numerous nominations and win 1 or zero. Some people love it, but some people were let down by it.
The Help is still a mystery to me – in the sense that it’s unclear if the support for it is merely for acting/writing or more. If Tate Taylor gets a director nomination at the Oscars, it will be a good sign of overall support.
And then there is The Descendants – a good, solid film, well written, well acted. Its director, script, and lead actor are locked for Oscar nominations. But do people love it, or merely like it? Do you imagine enough people voting for it passionately as the best picture of the year? I have my doubts…
A nom for Eddie Marsan but not for Olivia Colman? That would be just plain wrong.
So it looks like most of the past Golden Tomatoes went to animated films…and of course it wasn’t until the expansion to 10 nominees that these were actually being nominated for the Best Picture category. Again, Potter probably would be a lock with 10, but unfortunately they’ve changed the fucking format again…
@Jesus Alonso ur right, u should be a member of THe Academy
and lose Pitt or clooney and add Mullan
I seriously think Olivia Colman will get nominated instead of Viola Davis, the help did not fare well in england so one will lose out one from the help and Kathy Burke will get nominated
You dont think the girl with the dragon tattoo gets a Best Picture bafta nomination!
You dont think the girl with the dragon tattoo gets a Best Picture bafta nomination!
I think so. But I stay stoned a lot.
(^ jk. that’s almost always not usually 100% true.)
Nope, Scott, as written in the news, the deciding factor is, the amount of reviews. The Muppets scores same rating but with less than half the reviews, so, Potter takes the prize. The good thing, is that with this system, there is no genre bias. The movies have been judged on its own merits… the advantage, though, is for wider releaeses, when scoring same rating. I think it is way more fair than critics circle awards that ultimately can shy off naming some genre film the best, “risking” their credibility.
Once more, HP ain’t my #1 (it’s 2nd) and my complain about the treatment in the awards season is that they’re making a greater break between audiences and industry than some are imagining. And the broadcasters of the Golden Globes and the Oscars aren’t specially happy with how things are turning out… specially since the snub of both The Dark Knight AND Wall·E provocked the biggest change in the recent Oscar races… and at least they could give ’em both important awards (Heath Ledger and Animated, respectively). The slap in the face to audiences worldwide is going to go down as the biggest in Oscar history, even worse than the 11-0 and no director nom of The Color Purple, which still hurts.
How is going to take the industry that the most successful franchise ever (considering Lord of the Rings as a movie cut in three parts, obviously) and that is already film history, if only for some, in terms of casting, scope and b.o. success?
The only reason I find for the constant snubs is a mix of being british, prejudices and frankly never understanding what the story of HP actually means, both in the books and in / for film.
That being said, HP doesn’t need an Oscar, never did it. It is Oscar who’s going to regret not having rewarded it. Time tells, and we’ve already seen a whole decade since the first film (PGA nominee), which despite some obvious flaws, has “classic” and “iconic” status already for a whole generation. Regardless what you personally think about the quality of the films, franchise, and anything, there are certain facts that are 100% objective and undeniable, making it more ridiculous the snub and more than likely 0 Oscars for the whole franchise (Hugo is probably winning Art Direction, folks).
(note for the naysayers: when you read the original source you can discuss what HP actually is… a fine satire/metaphore about society itself, dealing with important issues as racism, classism… no wonder it was written by an unemployed single mother, pending on social welfare… does the orphan in a cupboard already ring a bell as metaphore, now?).
If memory serves me The Golden Tomato is based on BOTH Box Office AND Critical Reception, right?
OCO300 says:
January 7, 2012 at 3:59 am
http://popwatch.ew.com/2012/01/06/deathly-hallows-golden-tomato-award/
Nice! What past movies have won the Golden Tomato and not been nominated for Best Pic? The Dark Knight? Or would Potter be the first…?
As there is a voting faction of ampas that are also in bafta, they could push tinker tailor or kevin into best picture contention.
http://popwatch.ew.com/2012/01/06/deathly-hallows-golden-tomato-award/
Actually, the longlist is wider than seen here, it DOES feature Alan Rickman as Supp. Actor AND Antonio Banderas for leading. Here’s a wider scope on who has been “longlisted” on the main cathegories. http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/06/bafta-long-list-2012/
Interesting that their list has so much support for The Help. Three nods to the supporting actresses, even Bryce Dallas Howard? Four acting overall? Even if its not up for Best Picture or Director at the BAFTAS, this still seems to be a lot of Brit love for an American film. If The Artist isn’t deemed broad enough come Oscar time (weak box office, etc…), think The Help may be a real player for the Gold after-all as the default choice?
I think there has to be an “Anti-Artist” film. Hugo just doesn’t seem to be it to me, as it is almost complimentary. Moneyball is rather perfect, but still seems lacking in rallying winning votes. The Descendants? Maybe, but seems doubtful. War Horse still has the classic Oscar touch and is playing well with the masses…and I think the respectable box office helps. Thus, I can only seeing The Help and maybe War Horse as the only alternative, if The Artist is to lose traction, no?
Best British Film (No asterisk):
Arthur Christmas
Attack the Block
Coriolanus
The Guard
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
The Iron Lady
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
Senna
Shame
Submarine
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Tyrannosaur
War Horse
We Need to Talk About Kevin
You forgot the British film category…
@OCO300: No Oscar love for Rickman, but he Will get a Tony nomination (maybe a win) For Best Actor in May for his fine performance in the Broadway play “Seminar.”
Jeremie, of course you’ll came all over your computer if that happened.
Well, I think it’s safe to say “We Need to Talk About Kevin” is NOT gonna get the Best Picture nomination from BAFTA or from anyone else.
I hope it turns out to be the actual nominations. 4 noms for HP74, that’d be priceless.
I think the BAFTA Long Lists are exactly that. A Long List. And should be considered as such. Asterisks are well, at your own risk…lol…
I think it’s interesting that “My Week With Marilyn” scored more nominations than any other film. In that sense, the Brits love it. And remember the purpored size of the British Voting Block in the Academy, across all branches.
If Brits turn up here, it’s no big whoop. These are British Awards after all, and last year, Melissa Leo didn’t even make the Long List. Or the short list. And she won anyway.F-bombing her way into the Kodak.
The nice surprises for me were almost all in Supp. Actress, which is a VERY fluid field this year. With American Kathy Bates popping up as a hearty, warm Gertrude Stein. No Corey Stoll, however for MIP, but yes, Marion Cottilard also in Supp. Actress herefor her Muse of the Centuries in “Midnight in Paris, “and the divine Zoe Wanamaker being perfectly spot-on in her depiction of Paula Strasberg, in, yes, again, “My Week with Marilyn.”
LET IT GO, even me as Hp know that the BAFTAs won’t have any more Love? that what US has given harry, Probably it will have THE SAME noms that part 1 had and probably win Art Direction & VFX, a added could be Original score but that’s pretty much IT!
Screeners can often result in BAFTA snubs. Million Dollar Baby wasn’t nominated at all despite being eligible due to the fact that no screeners were sent to BAFTA members. But that same year, Sideways was nominated only for Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs, an award which it won. So if The Tree of Life is nominated for Best Cinematography here (which I think could happen), it still has a chance at winning, particularly considering that it’s kicking ass in that category already. But it sure has an uphill climb at so much as securing that nomination in the first place.
I think Albert Brooks may well be snubbed here.
Also, I doubt that We Need to Talk About Kevin will be nominated for Best Film. Although the stats seem to back it up, it does only have two asterisks. I think when it comes down to voting for the actual nominees, voters may eschew it in favour of a more Oscar-buzzed film, whereas Ramsay looks very likely to secure a Best Director nomination.
I posted my own analysis of the longlist on the other page, if y’all like? No, you probably don’t.
I’ll be disgusted with BAFTA if that’s their supporting actor list.
Apparently Fox Searchlight didn’t provide Tree of Life screeners for BAFTA. Maybe they wouldn’t have liked it anyway, but…
I can’t believe in a snub of Tree of Life for best cinematography. Because it is the only thing in the whole movie (and now we know) that it is really competitive. But, looking at what already happen, maybe you will be right.
But then again, Eddie Marsan is a Brit and SAG didn’t even pick Brooks so..who knows??
I think BAFTA will switch out Eddie Marsan for Albert Brooks (awards season pressure/herd mentality). Likewise, Zoe Wanamaker will probably be replaced by Shailene Woodley. I think Senna will be snubbed in Editing by one of those huge awards contenders (Descendants, Moneyball etc). I think everything else is solid though
You seriously think Albert Brooks is gonna get snubbed?
You seriously think Albert Brooks is gonna get snubbed?
I just wanted you to see the list with just the asterisks. No, I don’t think he’ll get snubbed. Oscar heat seems to determine who gets bumped.
Oh come on how is Alan Rickman not on the Supporting Actor list, he deserved it for 10 years