One of the biggest surprises this year is what number Best Picture will land on. There seem to be eight very strong films heading into the race:
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Moneyball
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
The only one that feels on shaky ground in War Horse and it might be supplanted by Bridesmaids, Tree of Life or the late-breaking Drive, which had such a strong showing at the BAFTA.
But let’s take another look at the experiment we did early in the year, when the news of the rule change went into the effect. The challenge: the Academy said that it looked back over the Oscar years prior to their changing up to ten nominees to see how many Best Picture winners they’d have had in any given year. They went from 2001 up to 2008. They said, in the end, that they had come up with a different number for every year — but no year in their experiment ended up with ten.
First, the new rules:
RULE SEVENTEEN SPECIAL RULES FOR THE BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR AWARD
1. A Reminder List of all eligible motion pictures shall be sent with a nominations ballot to all active and life members of the Academy who shall vote in the order of their preference for not more than five pictures.
2. The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.
3. The individual(s) who shall be credited for Academy Award purposes must have screen credit of “producer” or “produced by.” Persons with screen credits of executive producer, co-producer, associate producer, line producer, produced in association with or any other credit shall not receive nominations or Academy statuettes. The nominees will be those three or fewer producers who have performed the major portion of the producing functions. The Producers Branch Executive Committee will designate the qualifying producer nominees for each of the nominated pictures. The committee has the right, in what it determines to be a rare and extraordinary circumstance, to name any additional qualified producer as a nominee.
4. Final voting for the Best Picture award shall be restricted to active and life Academy members.
Then, this from a Hollywood Reporter interview with Tom Sherak:
“With the help of PricewaterhouseCoopers, we’ve been looking not just at what happened over the past two years, but at what would have happened if we had been selecting 10 nominees for the past 10 years,” said Academy president Tom Sherak, who noted that it was retiring Academy executive director Bruce Davis who recommended the change first to Sherak and incoming CEO Dawn Hudson and then to the governors.
During the period studied, the average percentage of first-place votes received by the top vote-getting movie was 20.5. After much analysis by Academy officials, it was determined that five percent of first place votes should be the minimum in order to receive a nomination, resulting in a slate of anywhere from five to 10 movies.
“In studying the data, what stood out was that Academy members had regularly shown a strong admiration for more than five movies,” said Davis. “A best picture nomination should be an indication of extraordinary merit. If there are only eight pictures that truly earn that honor in a given year, we shouldn’t feel an obligation to round out the number.”
If this system had been in effect from 2001 to 2008 (before the expansion to a slate of 10), there would have been years that yielded five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees.
The final round of voting for best picture will continue to employ the preferential system, regardless of the number of nominees, to ensure that the winning picture has the endorsement of more than half of the voters
In trying relieve some of my anxiety, I’m going right to the source, into the mouth of the beast, the Academy itself. What a peculiar challenge they have put forth to us. From the years 2001 to 2008, had they opened their arms to more than five, the results would have been, five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees.
So I went through the years to see which ones possibly yielded more than five. And here is what I came up with – factoring in guild support and eventual Oscar nominations.
2001
A Beautiful Mind (4 wins – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Screenplay; 4 more nominations – Actor, Editing, Makeup, Score)
Fellowship of the Ring (4 wins – Cinematography, Effects, Makeup, Music; 9 more nominations – Screenplay, Sound, Picture, Music, Editing, Director, Costume, Art Direction, Actor)
Gosford Park(1 win – Screenplay; 6 other nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction, Costume, 2 Supporting Actress nods)
Moulin Rouge (2 wins – Art Direction, Costume; 6 more nominations – Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Makeup, Picture, Sound)
In the Bedroom (0 wins; 5 nominations – Picture, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress)
Would have been contenders:
Black Hawk Down (DGA, WGA, CAS, Ace-WON, ADG) 2 wins – Sound and Editing; 4 more Oscar nominations -Best Director, Cinematography.
Amelie (ASC, ADG)- 5 Oscar nominations, Screenplay, Sound, Foreign Lang, Cinematography, Art Direction
Other films that sort of seem like maybe — David Lynch’s Mulholland Drive (but with only one Oscar nomination for Director, probably not), Memento — only editing and screenplay. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone with three techs – Art Direction, Costume, Music.
But I think only two movies might have ultimately pushed through — so my guess for 2001: 7 Best Picture nominees, but maybe 8 with Mulholland Drive.
2002
Chicago (6 wins – Picture, Supporting Actress, Editing, Costume, Art Direction, Sound; 7 more nominations – Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Director, Song, Screenplay)
Gangs of New York (0 wins; 10 nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Actor, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume, Song, Sound)
The Hours (1 Oscar win – Actress; 8 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Costume, Score)
LOTR: Two Towers (2 wins – Sound Editing, Effects; 4 more nominations – Picture, Editing, Sound, Art Direction)
The Pianist (3 wins – Director, Screenplay, Actor; 4 more nominations – Picture, Editing, Cinematography, Costume)
Could have been contenders:
Road to Perdition (PGA/CDG/ASC) 1 Oscar win – Cinematography; 5 more nominations -Actor, Art Direction, Score, Sound, Sound Editing)
Adaptation (PGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE) 1 Oscar win – Chris Cooper; 3 more nominations – Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay
About Schmidt (WGA/ACE/CDG) 2 Oscar nominations – Actor, Supporting Actress
Far From Heaven (ASC/SAG(2)/WGA) – 4 Oscar nominations – Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, Score
My Big Fat Greek Wedding (PGA/WGA/ACE nominee)
Since there was never ten, this seems to be a good candidate for the year of 9. I’ll guess either Greek Wedding or Far From Heaven failed to make the cut.
My guess for 2002: 9 nominees for Best Picture
2003
Return of the King – (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG) 11 wins – clean sweep – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound, Score, Song, Makeup, Costume, Art Direction
Lost in Translation (DGA/ACE/ADG) 1 win – Screenplay; 3 more nominations – Picture, Director, Actor
Seabiscuit – (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 0 wins; 7 nominations – Picture, Screenplay, Editing, Sound, Costume, Cinematography, Art Direction
Master and Commander (Globes/PGA/ACE/ASC) 2 wins – Cinematography, Sound Editing; 8 more nominations – Picture, Director, Editing, Art Direction, Costume, Makeup, Sound, Visual Effects
Mystic River – (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 2 wins – Actor, Supporting Actor; 4 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
Could Have Been Contenders:
Cold Mountain (Globes/PGA/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG) 1 win – Supporting Actress; 6 more nominations – Actor Editing, Song, Score, Song, Cinematography
City of God 4 nominations – Director, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography
Last Samurai (PGA/ASC/ADG) – 4 nominations – Supporting Actor, Art Direction, Costume, Sound
My guess is that City of God, Cold Mountain and maybe Last Samurai would squeezed in and that for 2003 there would have been 6 Best Picture nominees.
2004
Million Dollar Baby (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 4 wins – Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Director; 3 more nominations – Screenplay, Actor, Editing
The Aviator (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG) – 5 Oscar wins – Supporting Actress, Editing, Costume, Cinematography, Art Direction; 6 more nominations – Picture, Screenplay, Directing, Supporting Actor, Actor, Sound
Finding Neverland (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/ADG) 1 win – Score; 6 more nominations – Picture, Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Costume, Art Direction
Ray (Globes/DGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/CDG/ASC) 2 wins – Actor, Sound; 4 more nominations – Picture, Directing, Editing, Costume
Sideways (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG/ACE) 1 win – Screenplay; 4 more nominations – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor
Eternal Sunshine (Globes/WGA/ACE/CDG/ADG) – 1 win – Screenplay; 1 more nomination – Actress
Vera Drake – 3 nominations – Director, Actress, Screenplay
Hotel Rwanda (Globes/SAG ensemble/WGA/CDG/ADG) – 3 nominations – Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay
So I’m going to guess that all three of these would have made it – and so for 2004 I say 8
2005
Crash (PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 3 wins – Picture, Screenplay, Editing; 3 more nominations – Directing, Song, Supporting Actor.
Brokeback Mountain (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ASC) 3 wins – Director, Screenplay, Score; 5 more nominations – Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography
Capote (PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/CDG) 1 win – Actor; 4 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
Good Night, and Good Luck (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG)
Munich (DGA/ACE) 5 nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Score
Walk the Line (Globes/PGA/ACE/CDG/ADG)1 win – Actress; 4 more nominations – Actor, Editing, Sound, Costume
The Constant Gardener (Globes/WGA/ADG) 1 win – Supporting Actress; 3 more nominations – Screenplay, Editing, Score
Memoirs of a Geisha (ASC/ADG) 3 wins – Cinematography, Costume, Art Direction; 3 more nominations – Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Score
I don’t think, in the end, Geisha would have made it. It’s possible. But the pattern that emerges is that the heart of the Academy is Directing, Screenplay, Editing. We already knew that. But I do think that Walk the Line and The Constant Gardener could have.
So my guess for 2005 is 7 Best Picture nominees
2006
The Departed (Globes/PGA/WGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/BAFTA/ACE/ADG) 4 wins – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing; 1 more nomination – Supporting Actor
Babel (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/Sag ensemble?BAFTA/ACE/CDG/ADG/CAS) 1 win – score; 6 more nominations – Directing, Editing, Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Score
Letters from Iwo Jima (Globes) 1 win – Sound Editing; 3 more nominations – Picture, Directing, Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble/BAFTA/ACE/CDG) – 2 wins – Supporting Actor, Screenplay – 2 more nominations – Picture, Supporting Actress
The Queen (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/BAFTA/Eddie/CDG/ADG)
Dreamgirls (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/CDG/ADG/CAS) 2 wins – Supporting Actress, Sound; 6 more nominations – Supporting Actor, Song, Song, Song, Costume, Art Direction
Pan’s Labyrinth (CDG) 3 wins – Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup; 3 more nominations Screenplay, Foreign Film, Score
I’m fairly certain that Dreamgirls would have made the cut. Going to throw in Pan’s Labyrinth because clearly they loved that movie. So for 2006 my guess is also 7 Best Picture nominees.
2007
No Country for Old Men (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG enemble/WGA/ASC/ADG/BAFTA/CAS/) 4 wins – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor; 4 more nominations – Sound, Sound Editing, Editing, Cinematography
Michael Clayton (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAGx3/ACE/ADG/1 win – Supporting Actress; 6 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Score
There Will Be Blood (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG+1/WGA/ACE/ADG/BAFTA/2 wins – Actor, Cinematography; 6 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, Art Direction
Atonement (Globes/BAFTA/ADG/CDG) 1 win – Score; 6 more nominations – Picture, Actress, Screenplay, Costume, Cinematography, Art Direction
Juno (Globes/PGA/SAG+1/ACE/) 1 win – Screenplay; 3 more nominations – Picture, Actress, Directing
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/ASC/ADG/CDG) 4 nominations – Directing, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography
Ratatouille (ACE/ADG)- 1 win, 4 more nominations – Screenplay, Sound, Sound Editing, Score
This is a tough call. It’s possible Ratatouille could have made the cut. But I’m more sure Diving Bell would be in there. So I’m going to guess that for 2007 there would have been 6 Best Picture nominees.
2008
Slumdog Millionaire (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG Ensemble/ACE/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/CAS 8 wins – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Sound, Score, Cinematography, Song; 2 more nominations – Song, Sound Editing
Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG Ensemble/ACE/ASC/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/2 wins – Visual Effects, Makeup, Art Direction; 10 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Sound, Score,Costume, Cinematography
Frost/Nixon (Globes/DGA/WGA/PGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/ADG/BAFTA) 5 nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Editing
Milk (Globes/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/2 wins – Actor, Screenplay; 6 more nominations – Picture Director, Supporting Actor, Editing, Score, Costume Design
The Reader (Globes/SAG+1/ASC) 1 win – Actress; 4 more nominations – Picture, Directing, Screenplay, Cinematography
The Dark Knight (DGA/WGA/SAG+1/ACE/ASC/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/CAS/2 wins – Supporting Actor, Sound Editing; 6 more nominations – Art Direction, Cinematography, Editing, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects
Wall-E (ACE/ADG/1 win – Animated Feature; 5 more nominations – Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound mixing, Song, Score
Wall-E is a tempting choice. You could probably get seven out of that. You could maybe add Doubt. But I feel like The Dark Knight was really and truly pushing through, like Dreamgirls. This is why I think 2008 would have had 6 Best Picture nominees.
Another look at how votes are counted:
5% of the total vote is the minimum a film needs to make it to the second round as a nominee. The first thing they do is put them into piles of #1 votes (thanks to you commenters for clarifying this). 1% is needed, I suppose, to make it to the second round. Anything under 1% is tossed. Then they go through and they find those with a minimum of 5% of the total vote. There is some kind of explanation about the surplus rule. Let me quote a commenter DFP:
My understanding is after Round Two you need 5% of total ballots to be a potential BP nominee. If no more than ten movies are left in the running, those movies are the nominees. if there are more than ten, my guess is the ten highest vote getters are in. But based on what the academy reveals about past analysis that would not have happened, as after Round Two there were never more than nine movies left.
Which means Round One is the round that determines the movies over 5% or between 1-5%. The latter ones then depend on #2 and #3 etc. ballots to help push them over the edge into over 5% territory. If you survive Round One with over 1% you are still in the running.
However it is true that you are much more likely to survive into Round Two if you have 3% or 4% of number 1 votes. A movie with only 1.5% of Number 1 votes will need to be the #2 choice of many many more people to make it through.
But what I keep trying to make clear is 5% isn’t the hurdle for Round One. 1% is.
5% is the hurdle for Round Two after just one round of redistribution of ballots.
Redistributed ballots come from the under 1%, as well as (in fractions) from the big vote getters (somewhere over 10%, maybe 12%, can’t remember which).
According to the accountant’s analysis, that is all it would have ever taken to get 5-10 nominees with no leftovers.
Here is the breakdown of the branches.So what is 5% of the total vote? If there are roughly 6,000 voting members, a fair estimate of ballots returned might be, say, 5,000? In that case, 5% of that is around 250. A film would need at least that many number one votes to make it in. If fewer members turn in their ballots, obviously the number goes down. If more people turn in their ballots, that number goes up. But it might be a safe way to look at it to think of the magic number as somewhere between 200 and 350.
Actors Branch
Chair: Annette Bening
Members: 1,183
Art Directors Branch
Chair: Rosemary Brandenburg
Members: 364
Cinematographers Branch
Chair: Caleb Deschanel
Members: 202
Directors Branch
Chair: Kathryn Bigelow
Members: 367
Documentary Branch
Chair: Rob Epstein
Members: 157
Executives Branch
Chair: Robert Rehme
Members: 442
Film Editors Branch
Chair: Michael Tronick
Members: 220
Makeup Artists & Hairstylists Branch
Chair: Leonard Engelman
Members: 118
Music Branch
Chair: Bruce Broughton
Members: 236
Producers Branch
Chair: Mark Johnson
Members: 446
Public Relations Branch
Chair: Marvin Levy
Members: 366
Short Films and Feature Animation Branch
Jon Bloom
Members: 343
Sound Branch
Chair: Kevin O’Connell
Members: 407
Visual Effects Branch
Chair: Bill Taylor
Members: 289
Writers Branch
Chair: Frank Pierson
Members: 375
Conclusion: you have to figure that the more diverse offerings throughout the guild awards, the better chance you have, ultimately, for a bigger pile of Best Pic contenders. This feels like a decidedly weak year, though you can really feel some movies pushing through – you can feel Drive from the BAFTAS and you can feel Dragon Tattoo, which wouldn’t ordinarily make it with five nominees but would have no problem at all with ten.
Using my guidelines above you’d go:
The Artist (ADG/SAG/DGA/PGA/ACE/ASC/BAFTA)
The Descendants (ADG/SAG/WGA/DGA/PGA/ACE/BAFTA)
Hugo (ADG/WGA/PGA/DGA/ACE/CAS/ASC)
Midnight in Paris (SAG/DGA/WGA/PGA/ACE)
The Help (ADG/SAG/DGA/WGA/PGA/ACE/BAFTA)
Moneyball (WGA/PGA/ACE/CAS)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (ADG/PGA/WGA/DGA/ASC/ACE)
War Horse (PGA/ACE)
Bridesmaids (ADG/SAG/WGA/ACE)
Drive (ADG/CAS/BAFTA)
That Dragon Tattoo has a DGA nomination puts it high up on the list of possibles. But even still, we don’t know how the Best Picture lineup will fall. We make our calculations and we take our guesses but none of us knows for sure.
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Last Minute Predictions…
Here they are…
MY OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. Midnight in Paris
5. The Help
6. Moneyball
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8. Bridesmaids
9. War Horse
10. Drive
Director
1. Martin Scorsese – HUGO
2. Michel Hazanavicius – THE ARTIST
3. Alexander Payne – THE DESCENDANTS
4. Woody Allen – MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
5. Nicolas Winding Refn – DRIVE
6. Terrance Malick – THE TREE OF LIFE
Lead Actor
1. George Clooney – THE DESCENDANTS
2. Brad Pitt – MONEYBALL
3. Jean Dujardin – THE ARTIST
4. Michael Fassbender – SHAME
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. EDGAR
6. Ryan Gosling – DRIVE
Lead Actress
1. Meryl Streep – THE IRON LADY
2. Viola Davis – THE HELP
3. Michelle Williams – MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
4. Tilda Swinton – WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
5. Glen Close – ALBERT NOBBS
6. Bernice Bejo – THE ARTIST
Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer – BEGINNERS
2. Albert Brooks – DRIVE
3. Kenneth Branagh – MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
4. Jonah Hill – MONEYBALL
5. Nick Nolte – WARRIOR
6. Patton Oswalt – YOUNG ADULT
Supporting Actress
1. Jessica Chastain – THE HELP
2. Octavia Spencer – THE HELP
3. Bernice Bejo – THE ARTIST
4. Shailene Woodley – THE DESCENDANTS
5. Melissa McCarthy – BRIDESMAIDS
6. Janet McTeer – ALBERT NOBBS
Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
6. The Ides Of March
Original Screenplay
1. Midnight In Paris
2. The Artist
3. A Separation
4. 50/50
5. Win Win
6. Bridesmaids
“I’m sorry but if Dragon Tattoo gets a nom and Tree Of Life gets nothing, then the Oscar’s really are going downhill.”
I do believe that TToL will get in and Dragon Tattoo does not. Why? I have no idea. I have thrown statistics out to the garbage this year.
I’m not sure if we can say that TToL gets left out because of Dragon Tattoo. I can’t say it was The Reader that bumped The Dark Knight out. We don’t know for sure. I wouldn’t go badmouthing Dragon Tattoo if TToL is not named on Tuesday. I feel like Dragon Tattoo just isn’t strong enough to be on this list of few. TToL, to me, is strong enough – so are many others.
Always remember this: Academy very rarely recognises real art. If TToL is not nominated, it will be in a very good company of masterpieces not nominated. If it is nominated, it will be in a very good company, too.
@ JP
sorry, seems like I did not read it carefully
apologies 😉
There are NO frontrunners.
if that is like that, why not narrow to 4 or even 3 candidates only if there’s consensus that it’s an out of question race among really few horses?
’cause in some branches it’s like that. They have nom’d just 2 movies for make up recently or it’s famous that they gave direct awards to Total Recall’s Visual Effects, off the top of my head.
I said ToL has a better shot at a BP nod than DragTat. I only said it was wishful thinking that Drive has a better chance.
In the end I think the ToL die-hards will outweigh those who felt DragTat was “pretty good,” as well as the rare few who think it’s a masterpiece.
By the way…
Where were all the people back in late 2007 when we needed the (deserved) praises for Zodiac being shouted from every pundit’s rooftop?
First choice votes are tallied as one vote each.
The rules for a choice voting election for ten winners then are applied — meaning that the “victory threshold” is just over 9.1% of the total votes cast. Any picture securing at least 9.1% support at any point in the count is nominated.(Note that this threshold derives from the fact that it is the fewest number of votes that only ten winners can have. When applied to other categories like Best Actor and Best Actress, the threshold is just over one-sixth of the vote, as that is the fewer number of votes that only five winners can have.)
If any motion picture nominee’s total in first choices surpasses 11% of first choice (which is a fifth more than the 9.1% threshold — typically in choice voting this surplus happens for any ballots beyond the victory threshold, but the Academy adds this extra “cushion”), then that nominee’s “surplus” ballots above the winning threshold are distributed to next choices, with every ballot added to the totals of the next choice listed on it at an equally reduced value (with the total of those transferred values equal to the surplus beyond the victory threshold). If the second choice on the ballot has already passed the victory threshold and been nominated, then the ballot is added to the totals of the third choice, and so forth.
This process is repeated for each nominee that has more than victory threshold.
At this point, all pictures with less than 1% support are simultaneously eliminated. Any ballots ranking them first (or redistributed from nominated movies) are added to the totals of the next choice on the ballot that has not been nominated.
Vote totals are examined. Any picture with at least 5% support is a nominee. All other pictures will be eliminated. The number of nominees could be as few as five (in the event that fewer than five movies secure at least 5%, the top vote-getters among movies below 5% will be nominated) or as many as ten (in the unlikely event that more than ten pictures surpass 5%, the ones with the fewest votes above 5% will be eliminated.)
Jesus Alonso, in the event that five films don’t get 5% of the vote, then the top five films become the nominees. It’s in the rules; just not in the clause you’re quoting.
In short, the nominees are the films that get 5% of the vote (up to ten films) or, alternately, the top five vote-getters.
If you want to read the actual policy, google Steve Pond’s article on the rules change.
There are some years that I guess the 5th nominate probably didn’t score even 5% the votes. Off the top of my head I can imagine that Chocolat or 4 Weddings and A Funeral didn’t.
Read the black bolded sentence again…
“however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.”
that’s imperative. If, say, The Artist nails 40%, The Descendants 20%, Hugo 18%, Midnight in Paris 12% (that’s 90% of the votes already) and the following is, say, The Help with 4,90%, given the rules, The Help wouldn’t be nom’d.
This is an example. They’re assuming the votes aren’t going to be that much spread but think of this scenario of films that may be scoring some important support even if they’re not being maybe a big threat of a nom. Going to rough numbers, so you get the drill… 4% to Moneyball, Drive, The Help, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, War Horse…that would be already 20% of the votes. With 3% The Tree of Life, Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy, Bridesmaids, The Ides of March, J Edgar, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter… that’s another 21%, we already have 41% of the votes… and then an extra 9% to reach to half the votes for films like Melancholia, A Separation, Shame, The Skin I live in, and some other longshots critical darlings, etc. You have then 4 movies that can fill up pefectly with 12,5% number one votes average that other 50%. It’s difficult, unlikely even, but possible. Will the AMPAS favor the aesthetics of having 5 nominees at least or will just nominate those who their members decided that actually DESERVE it?
No, there may be 5 or up to 10 nominees. No less and no more.
In legal terms, the term ‘may’ isn’t necessarily meaning there is a choice. It needs to be read in context
Ugh… have everybody read correctly? Reread the rules, key word is “may” and then following the “must” in black.
There can be 4 or even 3 nominees only, too (unlikely, though). What if, frontrunners “The Artist”, “The Descendants”, “Hugo” and any other 4th contenders concentrate so many number one votes all-together, than no other candidate reaches the magic 5% count?
That would be the biggest shocker of the nomination morning. 4 Best Picture nominees. It also opens the gates for a possible direct Best Picture Oscar…
Drive Drive Drive Drive?????
Drive Drive Drive Drive, Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive
Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive
Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive
Drive Drive Drive Drive Drive!!
-Drive
KEIL…
So you think the fact that the Producer’s, Directors, Writer’s and Editors (4 of 5 Major Guilds) ALL Voted Dragon Tattoo as one of the top films of the year means it IS NOT a strong contender? What in your mind makes a strong contender then? BTW… Tree of Life and Drive (your fearless picks that are stronger contenders than DT) are 0 for 10 with these same guilds. You are aware that people who make movies (Producers, Directors, Writer’s and Editors) are the one’s that vote for the Oscars, right? Sure Critic’s Choice nod’s (plus BAFTA for Drive) are nice, but 4 out of 5 Guilds versus NO major guilds seems like pretty simple math to me.
My case for Tree Of Life having a better shot than Dragon Tattoo is simply by dint of the fact that I think the magical 5% will be easier for TOL to achieve since its supporters are really passionate about it being not just the best film of this year but a true masterpiece. That passion translates into more #1 spots on Academy ballots. I’m not saying Dragon Tattoo won’t also get nominated, I’m just saying that given the voting rules, it seems TOL has a clearer path.
This isn’t coming from any bias about either film, I should note. I quite enjoyed Dragon Tattoo and thought TOL was an overrated pile of garbage.
Rufussondheim: good case
I’m sorry but if Dragon Tattoo gets a nom and Tree Of Life gets nothing, then the Oscar’s really are going downhill. TOL has WON multiple awards where as how many has TGWTDT actually WON?? Even if it received a nomination, there is no chance in hell it would ever win best picture, b/c frankly it’s nowhere near the best picture of the year. If this were a more exceptional year of films, I doubt TGWTDT would even be mentioned as a possibility for a nom.
@ GoOnNow
You probably didn’t notice but I was being sarcastic. In the beginnin I said all were masterpieces. Some of those I even have in the list of best films I ever seenB
“I am clearly biased and believe others may be too.”
Absolutely, Mattoc.
In my mind, there was one reason why 2011 was special and that is Tree of Life. That is permanently locked in my mind and is immune to whatever Oscar says next week. I have no expectations one way or the other because the results will not have any impact whatsoever on how I feel about the film.
There were 3 other films that will also be regarded as unique, well beyond how Oscar treats them, for several reasons – subject matter, technical achievement, performances, or just overall impact – and those are Drive, Shame, and Hugo. One of these will do well on Tuesday, one is very iffy, and the other has almost no chance, but that doesn’t change all 3 will be remembered long after they roll up the red carpet.
While I have high hopes for Moneyball, Dragon/Tattoo, A Separation, TTSP and Monsieur Lahzar, I’m going into Tuesday with the expectation that 2 of these will do better than expected and 2 could be all but forgotten. That doesn’t make the 2 forgotten films any less than the others.
There are a couple of frontrunners that I don’t think deserve the attention they will get, but that’s fine. The smoke will clear over the next decade or so, with people like us saying “wtf were they thinking?”
2011 is fixed in my mind. The rest is a game played just for the fun of it. Can’t wait to find out what jersey I’ll be wearing.
As for the rest,
Not pissed off, just for some reason the impression of angryness may appear. Can’t really help it.
I noticed….not that there is anything wrong with being bias. Just saying.
No offense Craigz, I am clearly biased and believe other may be too.
I quite enjoyed “The Birds”.
Insane? In a good way – yes.
I can’t and won’t start a Harvey Weinstein campaign about “what a great film it is”;
but to call it an awful film? too brave.
No offense but I think your undying love is overriding you better judgement
The 5% rule is only absolute for films that fall beyond that line – that we know.
As you know film is subjective, and to me this year, there are some pretty decent films and then there is TOL. It stands out in a big way. A separation also stands out but it is not cinematic and I believe could have been made for television and not been any less of a great film.
I think both films will make the cut. I really do.
It’s not been a really good year and I am really scratching for films that I enjoyed. I have seen all of the contenders and then some, and here is my top ten
Tree of life
A Separation
Crazy, Stupid, Love
A Midnight in Paris
Drive
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Rampart
War Horse
Hugo
The Change Up
Epic, Why is Dragon Tattoo out? The DGA nod is huge. That is probably the most important precurser for Best Picture. Plus it hit at the PGA, WGA, ASC and ACE. It may not be a lock but calling it “out” is silly.
@ Cinematic Soul,
let’s see. It’s not the BFCA only. It has the LAFCA for best directing, best cinematography and best supporting actress as well as the runner-up for best picture. It has the NYFCC for actor, supporting actress and cinematography. It has the Cannes Film Festival Palm d’Or – not a precursor really, but it helps a contender getting seen by voters. And yes, it’s divisive, but the new 5 % rule could actually help it. Right now I believe it will get into directing the very least.
On the other hand I don’t get why people believe WAR HORSE is a lock. The movie’s bad. The guilds avoiding Steven Spielberg is a bit odd, isn’t it? Of course, sometimes the guilds ignore a film and the Academy embraces it (Letters from Iwo Jima), but that’s a movie that turned out to be good and surprised a lot of people. On the other hand when an early favorite turns out to be so-so (COLD MOUNTAIN), they could really slap in the face – 7 nods, no best picture. WAR HORSE probably won’t get much. I’d say 2-3 nods – probably sound, score and editing, but editing is iffy.
@ Sasha,
you’re missing IN AMERICA in 2003. It was a movie that probably finished sixth in a field of five. It had two acting nods and original screenplay and the two acting nods were surprises. It’s a very heartwarming tale about a family facing obstacles, mourning a child and going for a better life. I bet it would be a sure thing now.
I wish I had your faith Mattoc. I just don’t see it happening. Unless their are like 9 nominees. Those are just theories guessing how the Academy will vote. I prefer to go by what we know, the Guilds and it doesn’t look good. We will see though.
I don’t really get those who come up with theories as to how the 5% rule will affect these films chances. We have no idea what they will place number 1 because this is the first year of this kind of system. We have no precident.
War Horse & Dragon Tattoo are out.
Tree of Life is in.
@craigz – in regards to Tree of Life having a better chance than The Dragon Tattoo
I’m not going to put the two film against each other in my opinion of why TOL will get nominated.
I’m not surprised by the critical response, because frankly, TOL is a shot in the arm for critics who have to sit though 100s of films each year that offer nothing new.
I am surprised by a few of the guilds, but nothing to be alarmed about…we only see the noms and the wins anyway. who knows where TOL sits outside of the chosen few.
TOL, for those you like it, generally love it. And love it for similar reasons of why ‘ holistically’ critics like it. These people will nominate it for challenging the status quo and also for being profoundly moving. It also has the best ‘flashback’ in history – or at least the furthest.
Having said that I think there are at least 5% of these people in AMPAS and possibly even A LOT higher.
It short, it will get nominated easily, but it will not win, not even close to winning. That’s where you need the big votes.
Of people in my circle, which pretty much is a melting pot of intellectuals, artists, trash and stupid people, about half love the film. The interesting thing is some of the stupid people did too.
….and The Blind Side. And under these rules I’m sure films like City of God and Talk to Her would have been nominated.
“Name me the last time time a film that was ignored by every pre-cursor……… somehow makes it in for best picture?”
Lettets from Iwo Jima….and Christ dude, calm down. What are you so pissed off about?
@Keil Shults
At this point I would bet my left foot Tree of Life misses best picture. Why? Name me the last time time a film that was ignored by every pre-cursor except the BFCA and a few no shit cinematography nods here and there somehow makes it in for best picture? Probably never. I could be wrong, but even films like The Reader and A Serious Man got varied support here and there. No, no. The however modest box office hit, with an iconic performance in the making, based off of a best selling book, featuring three extremely respected actors (Skarsgaard, Craig, Plummer), one of whom is virtually a shoe in and at least made an appearance at the BAFTA and the GG and hit every single guild except SAG is gonna lose the nomination to a three hour philosophy lecture? The last time I saw people this deluded over a possible nominee, it was January 2006 and The New World was in theatres. It came up with the expected cinematography nomination, but nothing else. Expect that to be the case here as well. To say that the guilds don’t mean a lick to the Academy and its nominees and usually, winners is to spit in the face of logic.
Not that I’m expecting an actual response here, but I would like to know what exactly you seem to understand so much better.
Question mark, I don’t see how Tree of Life has better chances than GWTDT. Care to argue your case?
Henry, leave the Potter fans alone. They aren’t harming anybody. Now I used to get on their case for spamming but I’m over it.
As Sasha put it, “this feels like a decidedly weak year,” which is what makes this BP race so fascinating. There have been so few true breakthrough films that everyone agrees are masterpieces that it really throws the race wide open, and it wouldn’t shock me to see another field of 10 just because the voting could be so divided.
Even the two front-runners (Artist and Descendants) have their detractors, myself included — I thought Descendants was pretty average, personally, though Artist was arguably my favourite movie of the year.
My prediction for the BP field looks like this…
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants…These films are the two locks, no question about it, they’re getting nominated and Artist is going to win.
3. Midnight In Paris
4. Hugo
5. The Help
6. Moneyball….these four have strong cases and will probably be nominated, but would it really be all *that* shocking if any get snubbed? All have their flaws and I’m not totally sure I’d see enough voters (due to dislike or just because they plain haven’t seen the movies) putting any as their #1 choice. The Help and MIP have the strongest case, while Hugo and Moneyball are on somewhat shakier ground, though ultimately, I’d expect all four to get nominated.
After these six, I think it’s totally up in the air. Tree Of Life/War Horse have better chances than Dragon Tattoo/Bridesmaids/Drive simply since I think the artsy film-and-Malick-loving branch and the sentimental weepy-war movie-about-animals branch are larger than the voting blocs for the other contenders.
@JP
Bravo!!!
I’ve been saying it a million times, to the point I get tired of writing it. But I think it’s an extremely relevant point so I will be saying it over and over again whenever I have the time and whenever I think it’s relevant. The point should be made that over the last few years, the Oscar nominees have been really lining up with the critics’ choices for the best films of the year. I’m not talking about critics awards, talking about their actual top 10 lists.
http://criticstop10.com/
If you look at the last few years (since 2000 or so) only two Best Pic Nominees have come from outside the top 20, The Reader and The Blind Side.
OK, we can elimate The Blind Side as an extreme anamoly that bears no relevance. First it was done in a year that had ten nominees. I think this year’s changes were made to prevent another movie like The Blind Side from getting in. Now, of course, I don’t know the vote totals from that year (or any year) but I am confidant in dismissing it as a point of reference.
Now, The Reader is a different matter. It only finished #38. One reason I think that film finished so low was that it appeared late, late, late in the year and when it did, it did so in limited release. Again, I don’t have the numbers to back it up, but I’d wager that it was left off a lot of top 10 lists because it simply wasn’t seen.
But even then, The Reader has minimal precursors. The fact that it made the top 5 is really quite extraordinary. Like The Blind Side, I’m not sure any lessons can be learned from its inclusion.
Other things one can learn from looking at the top 10 lists. If you were to make a graph of each year would would notice a steady trend that nominations become more and more likely to come from the elite inside the top 20 than the bottom part of the top 20 as the years move on.
Last year, all ten films were from the top 11. I don’t think that’s a stat that should be overlooked. You can say over and over again that 127 Hours, Winter’s Bone or The Kids are Allright barely made the list, but their placement in the critic’s top ten lists is secure (all made the top 9 films.) All three films placed better on these lists than films from the early 2000’s. A Beautiful Mind, the eventual winner, finished #18, for example.
Also looking at the #1 movie on the list of each year. Except for Wall-E, which is from an the egregiously, historically overlooked animated family film genre, all of the number #1 films from the last 8 years made the nomination list.
So will these facts in mind, let’s look at the top 20 films
1) The Tree of Life
2) Drive
3) The Artist
4) Hugo
5) The Descendants
6) Melancholia
7) Midnight in Paris
8) Moneyball
9) A Separation
10) Martha Marcy May Marlene
11) Bridesmaids
12) Take Shelter
13) Shame
14) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
15) Harry Potter 7.2
16) Certified Copy
17) We Need to Talk About Kevin
18) Beginners
19) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
20) 50/50
So it’s reasonable to expect the nominees will come from these 20 films, but some can put forth good arguements that we should include 2 more movies.
25) The Help
26) War Horse
I’m inclined to exclude them, but then I think I would be remiss. They are in the conversation, both are high profile enough so that voters have likely seen them, and both have gotten nominated for various precursors (although, to be fair, neither has lit up the board with across the board mentions)
I think this an important time to remember that nominating rules are different this year. Most believe the rules will favor films with passionate support rather than films with broad support. Of course, it helps to have both passionate and broad support.
Now I will look at each of these films from this perspective, do they have passionate support? I will also attempt to see if their broad support might be sufficient to get them in.
Ok, let’s look at films we can promptly eliminate because they are on the low end of the top 20, and they have gotten minimal (if any mentions) in the precurse support.
6) Melancholia – It’s got a passionate following, to be sure, but I doubt its large enough. And I think a lot of people that love this film will also like Tree of Life and some of the films who rank about it. While I think it will get a fair share of support, I can’t consider it a real possibility.
9) A Separation – Like melancholia, this is a well-loved film. But it’s only #9 and it’s gotten no precursors except foreign film mentions (where most people who love the film believe they can support it in that category.)
Films 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20. – Many of these are fine films and are competitive in non Best-Pic Categories, but to include them in the elite nominees department is wishful thinking as there’s no reason to believe that any of them have any real support.
14) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – OK, this movie did will at the BAFTA’s but it’s an English movie in an English-based group. I know people love the film, but it’s lack of pre-cursor mentions makes me believe even with BAFTA love this film has too big of a mountain to climb.
If any of these films makes the nominees list it would be an extreme shock.
So let’s look at some of the borderline films.
26) War Horse. It’s low, low, low on critics lists. It’s got minimal pre-cursor support. It’s got a passionate following of Spielberg fans in love with it. But if you look at past lists, the love for this film is much less than other Spielberg films that didn’t make the cut in a five film year. Even with the rule changes though, I can’t see a clear pathway to a nomination for this film.
So the films we have left
1) The Tree of Life, 2) Drive, 3) The Artist, 4)Hugo, 5) The Descendants, 7) Midnight in Paris, 8) Moneyball, 11) Bridesmaids, 19) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, 25) The Help
1) The Tree of Life – #1 films make it on the Academy List, it’s that simple. Yeah, it’s got virtually no precursor support. But it’s got a very passionate following. And that following, I’d wager, knows it needs to put Tree of Life at the top of their ballots for it to sneak in. I think people will put it at #1 even if they like Melancholia or Drive more just to give it a nomination. Plus it has a big, successful star in it who had the best year of his career and a second lead who has come on stronger than any other actor/actress in my life.
2) Drive – This film received more #1 votes from critics than any other film, about 10% of critics placed it #1. So if half the Academy members agree it should theoretically be in. Again, like tree of Life, it’s barely been mentioned in the Precursors. But I think even its supporters know it’s a long shot and they, I think are more likely to vote for The Tree of Life than Drive.
I am fairly postive that one of these two films will get in.
3) The Artist – It’s in, no discussion necessary.
4) Hugo – It’s almost definitely in, although it’s lack of some crucial precursors (SAG) is worth noting. If any top film is going to be snubbed it will be this one. It’s #4, I think this film has passionate support and broad support. It should make the list easily.
5) The Descendants – This is a shoo-in, too. Too many critics awards and precursor mentions to be overlooked.
7) Midnight in Paris – On the face this film looks ripe for a snub. It’s a film that’s easy to like, but will enough people rank it near the top? This is one of those films with broad support, but is it passionate support. – It’s a close call, but it’s consistent mentions in the precursors makes on think it should have no problem getting in.
8) Moneyball – This is a tough one, harder for me to say definitvely one way or the other. Having just seen it, it currently is #2 on my best of list. But I love baseball. The only reason I didn’t put it #1 was because there wasn’t enough baseball. But there was a lot of baseball. If you are not a baseball fan, I think a lot of the inticacies of the film will be missed. I’m hardpressed to think a lot of people will put it at #1. Lots of mentions in the top 5 to be sure. But will it make the cut. I’m inclined to think it won’t unless there are a lot of nominees.
11) Bridesmaids. This has gotten a large number of precurser mentions. Of course, the Academey doesn’t nominate comedies that get this crude. With another comedy in the mix (Midnight in Paris) one would think this is a tough sell. I think you could discount the chances this film has if you didn’t look at it from a different viewpoint. A good portion of the Academy makes their lives in comedy, and with the nomination changes, people who live in the comedy world could be very temtpted to put this film at #1 on their ballots just to prove a point. Also, the film is seen as a victory for women in film. Could it gain additional votes from women voting for it for political reasons. And, it’s got a lot of precursor support, and it was a highly successful film at the box office. I think it has a real chance, it depends on how many films make the final cut. And at #11, it’s at a rank that’s easily within the realm of possibility.
#19) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. Late charging with key support from important groups. It’s got a DGA nod. That’s not a trifling precursor. It’s also unlike anything else under consideration. It’s also got a director that was widely viewed as snubbed last year. A lot of people love this film. People are passionate about it. And after a slow start, it’s got a lot of momentum at the box office. It’s a zeitgeisty type of film. This is a close one, a very tough call, but unless it’s a very short list I’m inclined to think it’s in.
25) The Help – Ok, this is outside the top 20, so I’m inclined to exclude it. But it’s got some major precursors (SAG Ensemble) that forces one to consider it. It’s also got some surefire nominees in major categories. And it was successful at the Box Office, everyone has seen this film. ANd many who do love it. It indeed has passionate support. And it’s a rare female-centric film to be in consideration. But so is Bridemaids so that’s less of an advantage than one would think. It’s a borderline call, it depends on how many films make the list. But it’s still only #25.
So we have surefure nominees
1) The Artist
2) The Descendants
We have films that are extremely likely
3) Hugo
4) Midnight in Paris
We have films that are likely but not definite.
5) The Tree of Life
6) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.
7) The Help
We have films that could sneak in.
8) Moneyball
9) Bridemaids
10) Drive
And we have a longshot that was an early favorite that people don’t want to exclude
11) War Horse
And then we have extreme longshots
12) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
13) Melancholia
14) A Separation
Then we have the non-contenders.
15) Beginners
16) HP 7.2
17) Shame
18) We Need to Talk About Kevin
19) Take Shelter
20) 50/50
21) Martha Marcy May Marlene
22) Certified Copy
——
On a related note, I’d like to see Sasha go through the nominees of the years she examined and not assume that all five nominated films would have survived the change in the nominating system.
@ Ryan Adams
I understand these things better than you, but it’s cute that you’d stick up for your boss.
If war horse gets in, sasha’s list won’t go far back enough. If it does, watch for the braveheart comparisons. You kids don’t know this, but back in 95 the Gibson film wasn’t much predicted to make the BP circle. The big five of the year – the equivalent of artist, descendants, Hugo, help, and midnight – were Apollo 13, babe, sense and sensibility, dead man walking, and leaving las Vegas. The former 3 made it. But walking was dead and Vegas left the building. Il postino made it – great film! this year’s tree of life? – but the real shocker on nomination day was braveheart. And that shock helped. The film got re-released in theaters and made almost as much as it did during it’s original mediocre run over the summer. Suddenly there was an epic war story amongst “small” films. Suddenly an underdog story became an underdog film event.
Just saying.
John-Paul: good speculation
@ Henry
I`d never compare harry potter to the films which I am going to list here (they are all masterpieces) but as you`ve said that Harry Potter is saga is bad because it had no awards recognition I decided to list some awful films from 4 filmmakers and their showing at the Oscars.
ALFRED HITCHCOCK
– Vertigo (a bullshit of a film… only sound and art direction nominations).
– Frenesi (what a waste of time… ZERO nomination).
– The Birds (Insane flick… only Visual Effects nomination… Transformers did much better).
TERRENCE MALICK
– Badlands (his first, best and most praised film…. bad bad and just bad… ZERO noms).
CHARLIE CHAPLIN
– Modern Times (ridiculous… zero nominations)
WALT DISNEY
– Snow White (this piece of crap got only a Song nod…. and It failed to get BP nom with 10…. don`t know why they felt ashamed and gave those 7 little oscars to him).
Don`t let awards rule your movie taste as bad as your taste could be.
@ Cage Creed
I have made those speculation lists from 1980 to 2008.
We have very similar lists.
– 2003 is the same.
– 2004 I have The Motorcycle Diaries instead of Closer.
– 2005 I have King Kong instead of Syriana.
– 2006 I have two films that received script and acting nominations (Little Children and Notes on a Scandal) instead of the fantastic Children of Man and the good Blood Diamond.
– 2007 I have American Gangster (a SAG nominee for ensemble) instead of Jesse James.
– 2008 I have Revolutionary Road instead of Vicky Christina Barcelona.
War Horse got a golden globe bp nod which is hard to do in such a year! Stop throwing it under the bus! Voters love it!
Sasha’s top seven make a worthy list. The Help is the only one of the seven I would describe as important.
War Horse could have been important. Dragon Tattoo too.
Dragon Tattoo is NOT a strong contender. You’re projecting your own personal tastes onto the Academy (shocker). Last year it was understandable, as The Social Network was both a masterpiece and an awards juggernaut. Neither case is true for DragTat.
Tree of Life has a better shot at a Best Picture nod than Fincher’s latest. I might even say that Drive has a better chance, but then I’d be the one projecting.
Dragon Tattoo is NOT a strong contender. You’re projecting your own personal tastes onto the Academy
PGA nominee
DGA nominee
WGA nominee
ACE nominee
ASC nominee
ADG nominee
Projecting our tastes on all the guilds too?
Like Batman – TDK, Henry?
Since it’s all about #1 votes, I think what we need to look at is which movies have won Best Picture awards up to this point. It’s pretty much just THE ARTIST, THE DESCENDANTS and HUGO, right? So I think it’s gonna be a five-nominee year, with THE HELP and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS filling out the slate.
Do people really think that The Help can pull off the SAG ensemble? SAG lately seems to go for the Best Picture frontrunner over the crowdpleaser when given the option. Take for example, wins for No Country, Slumdog Millionaire and notably The King’s Speech over The Fighter last year. I could be wrong but I think The Artist takes it. I might change my mind a week from now.
NGNG 6 Nominees
The Artist
The Descendants
War Horse
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
“The Help” and “Moneyball” do not get in
Just a small commentary about your “what if” 2001-2008 scenario: For 2008, no doubt that Wall-E would have CERTAINLY made the cut. Come on, not just TDK was the critically acclaimed unfairly ignored movie of the year.
Hopefully just 5, and hopefully “The Help” is left out.
and by the way, I have the industry, the critics wards, and the british academy by my side. And that is more important.
sorry but I know I am right, I have seen that saga for 10 years, and they never had a level for getting oscars or important awards.
haha Jonathan ., there are a lot of proof that harry potter was terrible made movie, better of what?? the awards prove that it doesnt deserve any recognition.
Sorry, but it is the true. OCO, you are fan, but you only see what you want to see. The good news only. But the bad news (there are many) you just ignore it, and continue asking why..That is stupid.
Not even the bafta loved the movie.. Why? Because it is a failed finale. Sorry, but that is the reason.
I’m starting to think it will just be the obvious 5 – The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris and The Help.
I question whether Moneyball can secure enough #1 votes to get in – do its supporters love it more than The Descendants? For its divisive response, War Horse seems to have a better shot at the 6th spot, because it fills a different niche.
Did the math completely change all of a sudden? I don’t feel like that’s how it was explained earlier. I don’t remember any 1% business. There were like fractions and shit.
Based on the breakdown of branches I’m picking 9.
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
Hugo
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part two
The Artist
Obviously we have no way of knowing for sure, but since it’s just for fun, I’d like to take issue with some of your guesses for how the nominees might have looked from 2001-2008. Just a few suggestions:
2001: First of all, I’m pretty sure Memento would have been nominated just based on the fact that it was a DGA nominee, which is usually the most accurate predictor of Best Picture. Plus Screenplay and Editing is a pretty good combination to have. Otherwise, your guesses of Black Hawk Down and Amelie sound good. I’m also unsure about Mulholland Dr. It seems like that may have just been a case of the directing branch rallying together to get Lynch nominated. The other big possibility that you didn’t mention is Shrek, which some people were predicting back during the 2001 season. I ultimately don’t think it would have made it, but it’s certainly possible that it would have. So my guess is 8 nominees this year: the nominated five plus Amelie, Black Hawk Down, and Memento.
2002: I actually doubt About Schmidt would have made it just because it was snubbed for Adapted Screenplay, which it had been favored to WIN at one point. I’m honestly surprised you didn’t mention Talk to Her, which was Best Director-nominated (usually a key indication) and WON Best Original Screenplay. I think it would have gotten in. So another year of 8, I think: the nominated five plus Adaptation, Road to Perdition, and Talk to Her.
2003: Not enough support for The Last Samurai, I don’t think. City of God and Cold Mountain would definitely have gotten in. The other possibility (that you didn’t mention) is Finding Nemo, although I don’t think it would have quite made the cut (their love affair with Pixar hadn’t quite reached its peak yet). So I guess 7 nominees for this year: the nominated five plus City of God and Cold Mountain.
2004: I actually think this was the 9-nominee year. In addition to the three you mentioned, The Incredibles seemed to have enough support to make it in. So the nominated five plus Vera Drake, Hotel Rwanda, Eternal Sunshine, and The Incredibles.
2005: I think this would be the 6-nominee year. There was definitely support for The Constant Gardener, but I’m not convinced it would have been enough to make it in. So just the nominated five plus Walk the Line.
2006: You didn’t think to mention United 93, which was nominated for the crucial combination of Director and Editing? To me, this is another 8-nominee year. The nominated five plus United 93, Pan’s Labyrinth, and Dreamgirls.
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is the only one I’m really convinced would have made it in. Into the Wild seems likely based on the precursors, but then again, it seemed likely that it would have been nominated for WAY more than just Supporting Actor and Editing, so I have to assume that it just wasn’t as well liked within the Academy as people thought it would have been. So 6 nominees this year, I think.
2008: The Dark Knight is a sure thing, and I do think WALL-E would have made it as well. Despite the impressive 5 nominations (all in major categories), I doubt (no pun intended) that it would have gotten enough #1 votes. So 7 nominees.
Of course, my predictions must be off seeing as how I don’t have any years that would have only had 5 nominees. Maybe the 5-nominee year was 2005, and Walk the Line wouldn’t have made it in regardless of guild love? I don’t know.
Gee, Sasha, thanks for quoting me (although I am DFA, not DFP), even with at least one (or more) awkwardly constructed sentence. 🙂
…Forgot to mention that Bridesmaids also scores higher than War Horse on Rotten Tomatoes (90 vs 78), Metacritic (75 vs 72) and the BFCA (82 vs 80).
Sorry Sasha, gotta disagree about your probable nominees after the top 7 (which I 100% agree with, and the exact order, and the fact that they are all probably safe)…
War Horse is not the next one knocking on the door. That spot belongs to Bridesmaids. Granted, both films landed AFI, Globes, PGA and ACE noms, but the other nominations they garnered really indicate who has the best chance of getting a Best Picture nomination.
Bridesmaids grabbed SAG and WGA, people who actually vote for the Oscars.
War Horse snagged NBR and Critics Choice nominations. They are nice noms to have, but I’ll take 2 Guilds over 2 Critics any day when trying to predict Oscar voters.
My order…
#1. The Artist (Front Runner)
#2. The Descendants (Basically #1.5)
#3. Hugo (Consistent Noms All Year)
#4. Midnight in Paris (Riding the 2011 Nostalgia Wave, even though it’s about debunking Nostalgia)
#5. The Help (Actors are 1 out of every 5 Academy Voter, if SAG ensemble win, watch out)
#6. Moneyball (Always a Bridesmaid, never a Bride, er, Winner)
#7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Guilds coming on strong, should be enough for Nom)
#8. Bridesmaids (if 8 BP Noms, I think this is it)
#9. War Horse (Quick out the gate, stumbling as of late)
#10. Drive (No Guild love means BP Nomination unlikely)
Long Shots…
Only 7 Movies left with a shot to steal a spot at the table. Alphabetical list, as I would not be completely surprised if any of them pulled a “The Reader” and snuck in at the last minute.
-Harry Potter & the Deathly Hollows Pt. 2
-The Ides of March
-A Separation
-Take Shelter
-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
-The Tree of Life
-Young Adult
Henry
Sorry, man. You don’t have to be a fan to see that Harry Potter and DHp2 is not what you said. And now I have a lot of reviewers by my side.
Im sorry, but I just can’t imagine or admit Bridesmaids receiving a nominee for Best Picture and Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Parte 2 don’t. I’m not talking as a big and dazzled fan. I’m talking as a person who likes to watch movies and has some critical sense. I can, however, accept Harry Potter out of Best Pictures nominees. It’s perfectly admissible. But not knowing that a weaker movie as Bridesmaids made the list.
Let’s admit: Harry Potter was the best blockbuster of the year (yes, better than Planet of The Apes or Super 8) and one of the most criticaly aclaimed movies. It has even best scores than The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, War Horse and, sure, Bridesmaids. So, why thay snubbed Potter and gave so many awards to Bridesmaids?
no probs HP forever
OC300 You always say: I dont know why, I dont know this, I dont know who think the academy. But I think you are doing questions that may you know the asnwers.
It is basic.. Harry potter is snubbed because it is what it deserves. It is not competition, just a movie with a lot of mistakes, and without any type of drama or story well written. The final episode is terrible compared with the other movies.
Just face it, you are supportng something that it is dead in this competition from the bedinning.
thanks Harry Potter forever
And it’s right not ruight
@SC8O No argument there, and it should win, be nominated, or get an honorary Oscar for all the hard work it’s done for 10 years, and it’ll never be forgotten.
Ur ruight, but to me it will always be the most successful, greatest, respectful (next to Lord of the Rings and Star Wars), appreciated, coolest film franchise of all time since the new millenium….well 2001.
i know it seems like a “for sure,” but do you actually SEE voters consistently placing ‘HUGO’ in the number one spot?!
@SC8O however there alot of movies (non sequels and low budgeted) that to THe Academy are better than HP:DH2, you know to me Hugo, The Help, The Descendants, Tree of Life, and War Horse; but ur right Harry Potter 7.2 should deserve a BP nod, I mean sure it did in public awards but I don’t see why in critical awards.
@SC8Official well to me the BP race wasn’t a year for a for sequels, although it did help in the box office andf had good review, although Harry Potter 7.2 was the biggest sequel of the year (make over a billion dolars and alot of respect it got from major movie critics) I mean Toy Story 3, Avatar, and Lord of the Rings got alot of BP nods (also had high budgets) and I don’t why this movie didn’t.
Man, I wish Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 was on the BP, if only it wasn’t snubbed at all those critic awards.
I’m hoping “Drive” will make the final cut. A brilliant film containing brilliant acting that is brilliantly directed.
Is it too much to hope for a Best Picture nomination for “Harry Potter II”? There must be at least 300 AMPAS members who could place this film as their No. 1 choice.
I’m also confident “The Tree of Life” has enough core support to get a BP nomination.
Thanks for the analysis. While I understand it’s almost certain to happen every year, isn’t there a chance that some year votes will be so spread out that 5 films don’t get 5% of the vote? I get that’s almost impossible but isn’t there a possibility of this happening?
Also, just to be a stickler, it’s WALL-E not Wall-E. It’s an acronym. Sorry, I just love that film so much and it always bothers me for some stupid reason to see it not in caps.
Here’s a question that I feel like I have all the information to solve but am too mathematically incompetent to get to the bottom of: is it possible that movies that were nominated in the past wouldn’t have made it through under the new rules? By which I mean, could the need for #1 votes have meant that a movie with a smaller but incredibly passionate group of supporters have displaced a movie with a larger number of supporters who were less passionate? I know that the main thing is that more movies would have gotten nominated, but just out of academic curiosity, I wonder if the ones that did get nominated would still DEFINITELY have been on the list.
Am I making sense?
I’m going to guess 6, without Drive or Tree of Life, as well as a shocker that one of the favorites all season is left off. There will also be one underserving candidate, so I’m preparing to lock ‘n load for that morning. Hope I’m pleasantly surprised.
Good analysis, Sasha. It’s amazing when I look at the “could’ve beens” you listed – in almost every year, that was where the true best pic of the year was relegated.
Houstonrufus, you said thanks John. Do you mean the post at 1:57pm or 2:04pm? Different Johns. 🙂
And I completely forgot about Ides of March. I agree, it’s def. a possibility.
a bit off topic, but does anyone know if The Artist is eligible for the Cesar awards?
Isn’t Bridesmaids nominated for the Producer’s Guild Award? It’s not included in the list above.
Iowa Film Critics Winners:
http://thescreenteen.blogspot.com/2012/01/iowa-critics-descendants.html
John, those same “old, white” voters also nominated and voted for “The Departed” and “No Country For Old Men.” I think you’re selling them short. Remember, these old, white voters are mostly the cream of the industry crop and deserve our respect. Just because you’re older doesn’t mean your out of touch.
CORRECTION: From 2007, replace Assassination of Jesse James with THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM!
@PaddyM, I once did that speculation for the 10-nominee rule. Here’s what I came up with (not an easy task):
2003
– The Barbarian Invasions
– City of God
– Cold Mountain
– Finding Nemo
– In America
– The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
– Lost in Translation
– Master and Commander
– Mystic River
– Seabiscuit
2004:
– The Aviator
– Closer
– Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
– Finding Neverland
– Hotel Rwanda
– The Incredibles
– Million Dollar Baby
– Ray
– Sideways
– Vera Drake
2005
– Brokeback Mountain
– Capote
– The Constant Gardener
– Crash
– Good Night, and Good Luck.
– A History of Violence
– King Kong
– Munich
– Syriana
– Walk the Line
2006:
– Babel
– Blood Diamond
– Children of Men
– The Departed
– Dreamgirls
– Letters from Iwo Jima
– Little Miss Sunshine
– Pan’s Labyrinth
– The Queen
– United 93
2007
– The Assassination of Jesse James
– Atonement
– The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
– Into the Wild
– Juno
– Michael Clayton
– No Country for Old Men
– Ratatouille
– Sweeney Todd
– There Will Be Blood
2008
– The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
– The Dark Knight
– Doubt
– Frost/Nixon
– Milk
– The Reader
– Slumdog Millionaire
– Vicky Cristina Barcelona
– WALL-E
– The Wrestler
Sasha, a thoughtful, detailed analysis. This is what you do best and I appreciaied that there were no F-bombs in your text.
Wonderful work here.
I would also not rule out The Ides of March. It does have a PGA and Globe nomination behind it. And has a very talented cast, so it might make the cut. I could also see Gosling sneak into the 5th spot for Actor as well, and NOT for Drive, although missing out on a SAG does hurt.
Regarding what other films could have made the BP list if they had expanded earlier, I think The Bourne Ultimatum might have made it. It won all 3 of it’s Oscars, including Film Editing. United 93 would have made it as well, as it already had Directing and Editing nominations.
Zodiac is the one film from the last decade that really bothered me by getting shut out. If Paramount had not dumped it in March ’07, it might have made some noise late in the year. Definitely deserved multiple nominations.
Sorry that I’m posting up a storm tonight, but I had one more thought: when comparing this year’s guild support to that from previous years, remember that these guilds like to predict the Best Picture nominees. When there were only five nominees, the list of contenders for those five nominations was much smaller than this year, when there are conceivably seven or eight nominees (and 10ish films vying for those noms). As a result, the guild nominations from the early ’00s might be less diffuse than they would be if those same cohorts of films were competing under the new system. In that regard, we might be overestimating the number of nominees.
As the article says, nobody really knows anything.
I hope it’s only 5. Honestly. Oh well, I guess we will know that as soon as we see the stage where they announce the noms: if it’s 5 screens, it’s 5 BP nominees. If it’s a large screen, it’s more than 5.
Nice breakdown of the rules Sasha. I feel that ‘Drive’ is more of a critics and internet darling (I too loved it) but it’s not going to make it. Same with ‘Tree of Life’. I think there will be 6 or 7 max. films nominated for BP.
I would die of laughter if, after the debut of this new system and seven (?) months of speculation, there were just five nominees.
I want 5 again, permanently.
Let’s not under estimate The Ides of March. This is a big year for Clooney and Gosling. And the Academy lovvves political dramas.
Here are my proposals for what might have happened between 2001 and 2008:
2001
A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park
In the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Moulin Rouge!
BLACK HAWK DOWN
2002
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist
ADAPTATION.
ROAD TO PERDITION
TALK TO HER
2003
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
2004
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
2005
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
WALK THE LINE
2006
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
BLOOD DIAMOND
DREAMGIRLS
PAN’S LABYRINTH
UNITED 93
2007
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
THE DIVING-BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
INTO THE WILD
2008
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
THE DARK KNIGHT
Really good post, John. Thanks.
Isn’t it hard to predict since this is the first year with the new voting system? I am not sure conventional thinking and stats will matter as much this year. It may benefit films like Drive and Tree of Life, whereas film films like Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and the Help may have a tougher time getting the 250 or so first place votes. Sure, films like that have great ensembles, and actors like them. But are they actually going to place them first because of the great cast?
And secondly, think who are actually going to vote for these things. Old, white academy members with an average age of 60-70. I don’t think Bridesmaids is going to be their cup of tea despite the guild support.
With the 5% rule in effect, I have trouble believing that any more than seven films will receive Best Picture nominations this year. Just statistically speaking, there are 265 films eligible films, and even the crappiest of those films will have voting Academy members who will provincially give a first place vote for having actually worked on it. At the other end of the spectrum, the Academy has said that the top vote-getting film will command roughly 20% of the first place votes. I just dont see how there are enough votes left in between to get that many other fils over the 5% hurdle.
^Whoops- I meant A Serious Man.
Jwright40, I totally agree. Tinker Tailor was also nominated in Best Film yet nobody is clamoring that it’s on the up-and-up. And, despite the “Drive did so well at the BAFTAs” storyline that’s floating around, it didn’t even get a nomination for its leading acting contender Albert Brooks.
I think this is one of those last-minute surges in online chatter that only makes people bummed when we know the actual nominees. Remember the people who thought that The Hangover had a chance in ’09? Or (500) Days of Summer in ’09? Or Blue Valentine in the week before nominations last year? Or Another Year?
As for the 2001-2008 retrospective, I think we’re putting way too much stock into AD’s analysis. Just look at inconsistencies– for example, I’m sure nobody would say that A Single Man would have gotten nominated in 2009 under the new system, but About Schmidt with the same nomination tally is assumed to have been a BP contender. I don’t know that I buy it, especially when something like Chicago would have hogged a lot of #1 votes.
Without actually testing the results (in this case, seeing what actually would have happened), you don’t have an “experiment,” just untested hypotheses.
Here’s my thoughts:
The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, and Midnight in Paris seem in.
I think Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball, and War Horse make up 6-8 in some order.
I think TTSS, Drive, Bridesmaids, The Tree of Life are 9-12 in some order.
The thing to remember is this: the guilds can be huge indicators. But thousands or many hundreds vote in those, and maybe only a couple hundred of THAT are in the Academy. So you get a feeling like ‘anything can happen’ still.
i.e., War Horse may still pop-up with Picture, Director, Cinematography, etc..
On TTSS and Drive. I feel like the BAFTA block (rumored to only be a 500-1000 person crossover) out of 6,000 in the Academy could split votes between support for TTSS, Drive, and The Artist. In fact, many of those 500-1000 could be putting The Artist at #1 and making support for TTSS/Drive a moot point.
In any case, noms on Tues. morning should be very, very interesting.
Strange that The Last Samurai was mentioned but another film directed by the same director that had STRONGER support within the Academy wasn’t mentioned: Blood Diamond. I think Blood Diamond would have been closer to the 5% than Dreamgirls, to be honest. Even though Dreamgirls had the most nominations, three was in song alone. That’s nothing to put on a pedestal when mentioning Academy support. For this year other than the five Artist/Help/Descendents/Hugo/Midnight the films most likely to hit the 5% mark is….Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Bridesmaids (feel strange writing that). Films like Tree of Life or Drive is more likely to get a Best Director mention than Best Picture.
Another factor that always needs to be taken into account when relying on the Guild nominations as precursors, is that the membership of the Guilds is not the same pool of people who belong to the corresponding Academy branch. For example, the DGA is made up of not only film directors, but also TV and Commercial directors, who are not Academy members. I personally know 6 DGA members, only 1 of which is also an Academy member. I can tell you from my chats with all of them that the tastes of DGA members can vary greatly from Academy Directors Branch members. The same holds very true for comparing SAG members to Academy Actors Branch members.
Thanks for the breakdown. The one thing that makes me think Drive could get in is it seems to have very passionate devotees, maybe just enough. Certainly not enough to win let alone get in the top 5. But maybe, just maybe. I’ll still be shocked out of my mind if it makes the cut. But the possibility is certainly there.
Very helpful Sasha, thanks. I’d rather a possibly undeserving film got in than have great film get left off.
I’d put Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy above Drive in the rankings. If Drive received a boost from BAFTA, surely Tinker Tailor received an even greater boost. Also, Tinker Tailor is much more the Academy’s type of fare than Drive. Aaron, your enthusiasm for Drive is honourable, but your personal appreciation for a film cannot be enough for Academy members. I could wax on for hours about how incredible I felt Shame to be, but that wouldn’t help its standing in the race. Drive did well with the BAFTAs, but not as brilliantly as it could have. The guilds have snubbed it, as did the Globes. It’s way on the outside, for me. I even think The Tree of Life has more of a chance.
Thanks for this run down. I specially liked the “what-if” scenario for 2001-2008. Hopefully the number of nominees is closer to 10 rather than 5. I really think that last couple of years have been the least offensive ones if only due to the presence of 5 additional slots for movies that usually don’t get a nomination (like District 9 or Inception).
Of course most of the good will from 10-nominee years was instantly vaporized last year when an enjoyable but deeply flawed feel good movie about a super rich and powerful king with a beautiful and caring wife who finds a new lower class friend won the best picture. Almost a year later and I still can’t think of anything else to say other than “F*** Academy”.
Thanks for this very interesting and useful analysis.
Might I point out that there may be a limitation in looking at the guild nominations a movie has received, which may then lead to a “shocker” come nomination morning, but should not necessarily be considered so?
Consider, for example, that the Makeup Guild, the Producers Guild, the etc. Guild may not have given, say, Drive a nomination because they don’t see great Makeup or great Production or great Cinematography in the movie. But that’s what they look for (hopefully) when voting for the best movies in their craft.
When they cast their vote for “Best Picture nominee,” there is no basis to assume (and, indeed, I would think it is quite foolish to assume) that they vote for the best Makeup picture or the best cinematography picture. They simply vote for the movie they like the most, overall, period.
This can help explain why a movie with fewer precursor guilds may nevertheless get a nomination for Best Picture. So I think it is fair to say that Bridesmaids and Drive had good shots despite their lack of precursors, IF we think people like the movies overall, and I think they do.
By contrast, a movie like War Horse, which has its peripherals in your face, should be ripe for guild nominations in many many categories like costumes, editing, cinematography, etc. In that type of movie, it IS safer to say that if the guilds themselves don’t even like the movie in the category they are voting for, then it is unlikely that the members will vote for it for Best Picture.
It’s very possible Tinker Tailor could make it with the new rules. Very strong showing with BAFTA and a large Brit contingent in AMPAS. If Tinker Tailor makes it I won’t be surprised at all
Matt & Aaron, if the BAFTA notice is what gets Drive creeping closer to a Best Pic nom, I don’t see how it has more of chance than TTSSpy, with its 11 noms. I don’t see momentum building for it at all. Drive is style over substance – though to great success, and doesn’t pretend to be anything different – and many voters won’t go for that. (They don’t think in terms of “Dude so badass!”) Its fans will be outspoken, but the #2 & #3 votes won’t be there. If the support was there, Brooks would still be in the conversation. Which is to say he could still be nominated, but it’s more of a surprise. Of the threats to for #8, I think it’s Bridesmaids, followed by TTSSpy, followed maybe by Drive, followed by Tree of Life.
I don’t think Drive will make the cut. While I happen to think it is fantastic, I think too many people downgrade it as a mere “action/B-movie” not deserving of a #1 vote.
On the other hand, although the Tree of Life evokes either passionate love or eye-rolling disdain, there are lots of people who think it is a unique, challenging masterpiece, and so I think it will have no trouble at all making the list.
I would do a crazy dance of joy if War Horse were snubbed.
I think in 2002 you’re understimating 2 films that clearly had strong support but where unlikely to show in other cathegories than Best Picture… Talk to Her (it won Original Screenplay and a Directing nom for Almodovar and wasn’t ellegible as Foreign Film) and Bowling for Columbine (it DID have strong support due to politichal reasons and wouldn’t have shocked me to earn a Best Picture nom if there were more than 5 nominees). 2002 was a year so good that I couldn’t force myself to narrow up to a top 10 so I did a top 15… remember that it was the year also of Y tu mamá también and Punch Drunk Love, to name just another two highly acclaimed films…
Also it would have been interesting to guess which films on the 2009 and 2010 wouldn’t have made the cut. The Blind Side and Winter’s Bone quickly jump to my mind as easy guesses.
2009:
Nominees: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air and Precious.
NOT nominees: The Blind Side, A serious Man, An Education and District 9
2010:
Nominees: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit, Toy Story 3, Inception, The Fighter and Black Swan
NOT nominees: 127 Hours, Winter’s Bone and The Kids are all right.
Seriously, with some “NOT nominees” the feeling is unavoidable. Up and Toy Story 3 DID make a real splash and were almost out of question that would be nominees even, maybe, if narrowed to 5. Inception did miss a Best Director nom but it had strong support through the technicals, so probably didn’t have too much of a problem to reach the top.
I don’t see Drive showing up other than #1 which is a bad thing. For these “smaller” films they really need to have major support outside of #1 to get the nomination. These “passionate bases” can’t get a film in by themselves. They really need to be on a lot of ballots and with only five spaces this year it’s not going to happen. Bridesmaids, while I think it will be left off, definitely has more of a chance because it can get the female vote.
War horse should definitely be in list
i think given the amount of #1 votes drive would get compared to the others in the potential spoiler spots, it should easily get in.
I think War Horse is in. The old guard Academy members will make sure of it. I also think people are overlooking Spielberg in the Best Director category.
I do agree that Drive is a potential spoiler for the 7th or 8th spot, and more so than TTSS, Bridesmaids or Tree of Life.
Wow! Amazing run down….
For me, I think there’s no doubt Drive will make it into the Best Picture race. I keep thinking to myself, “How would it be possible for SUCH an amazing film to NOT get the recognition it deserves this year”. It seems right up the Academy’s alley, seeing as they really DO love a good action flick, and this time with such an intellectual, and artistically driven point-of-view.
It ALREADY feeeels like a classic, with Ryan Gosling’s dazzling gold scorpion jacket (BADASS!!), how could it not stick out in many viewer’s minds as one of the best films of the year. When they’re all numbering those top ten films, realistically I can’t imagine it NOT being on the top list. Think of the voters- they love Gosling, he’s already an inaugarted star in the House of Pitt and Clooney, and with such a strong masculine appeal, its probablly EXACTLY what voters have been waiting for!
I remember I felt wowed- exhilerated even, and I know many people who felt the same way. With such strong support overseas from Europe, initially with Cannes when Refn seized a deserved Best Director award, and a second revival of praise with the BAFTA’s.
If one of the best films of the past decade does not get it’s due – then it has BEGUN. And it’s not good.
Well, maybe it’s not the end of the world, but in all due respect I hope they get this right. I think we’re going to be suprised at how strong Drive will come out this year, and I sense we should hold tight and watch the ride…
I really hope War Horse pushes through. I think it’s easily one of the best movies of ’11.
Funny enough I had a dream about this last night. In my dream there were six nominees. So that is my official prediction.