On Thursday, January 3rd, the Producers Guild, Art Directors Guild and Writers Guild all announce their nominees. It is he same day as Oscar ballots are due. The Writers Guild is a fairly good indicator of Best Picture at the Oscars usually. This is a year where a lot of the best screenplays, Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar’s Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Ava DuVernay’s Middle of Nowhere are all ineligible. That means we could see something similar to last year’s Original Screenplay category where only two made it through to the Oscars. Everything is ass-backwards this year because usually these nominations are released before the Academy’s ballot deadline, thus, the WGA, DGA, PGA will not be the guidepost for Oscar voters.
That means you can’t get a bump from a screenplay that might have been snubbed by the WGA. As you can see by the charts below, the WGA and Oscars match quite often for wins, particularly in the original screenplay category. As the date for Oscar has been pushed back (circa 2003), those matches were somewhat more rare. After that, you can see how closely they matched. That’s because there is simply less time for contemplation. Everyone votes roughly at the same time, so what wins one place tends to win another.
If a script is eligible for the WGA and is a strong Best Picture contender it has a great chance to win the WGA and the Oscar, like last year’s Midnight in Paris and The Descendants. It’s extremely rare that a screenplay wins without a Best Picture nomination, though it can happen. Usually the writing category, like the editing category and directing categories, and even the acting categories, tend to be the supports that hold up the Best Picture, so you have a better chance of winning if your film is is nominated for Picture, Director, etc.
The WGA is made up of 20,000 or so writers. The writing branch is just under 400. So you really have two completely different demographics there, which accounts for the occasional differences in choices for nominees.
According to Variety, the high profile scripts that are eligible are:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master,” David Chase’s “Not Fade Away,” Woody Allen’s “To Rome with Love” and Mark Boal’s “Zero Dark Thirty,” Judd Apatow’s This is 40.” Notable adaptations that are eligible include Chris Terrio’s “Argo,” Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight Rises,” David Magee’s “Life of Pi,” Tony Kushner’s “Lincoln,” David O. Russell’s “Silver Linings Playbook.”
The strongest contenders for original screenplay are:
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (probably for the win)
Nicolas Jarecki, Arbitrage
Rian Johnson, Looper
John Gatins, Flight
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Judd Apatow, This is 40
John Krasinski, Matt Damon, Promised Land
But the Academy might add to original screenplay:
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ava DuVernay, Middle of Nowhere
Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano, The Intouchables
The strongest contenders for adapted screenplay are:
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Chris Terrio, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
David Magee, Life of Pi
Christopher, Jonathan Nolan, the Dark Knight Rises
And those that aren’t eligible that could squeeze into the adaptation category (but it’s a crowded category already with eligible screenplays):
Benh Zeitlin, Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild
William Nicholson, Les Miserables
The rest of the eligible original screenplays are:
“10 Years,” “Act of Valor,” “Any Day Now,” Arbitrage,” ‘As Luck Would Have It,” “The Bay,” “The Cabin in the Woods,” “Celeste and Jesse Forever,” “Chasing Mavericks,” “Chronicle,” “Crooked Arrows,” “Damsels in Distress,” “Darling Companion,” “The Dictator,” “The Divide,” “Downtown Express,” “End of Watch,” “The First Time,” “The Five Year Engagement,” “Flight,” “For a Good Time Call,” “For Greater Glory,” “Friends with Kids,” “Fun Size,” “The Good Doctor,” “The Guilt Trip,” “Haywore,” “Hit & Run,” “Hope Springs,” “House at the End of the Street,” “Jeff, Who Lives at Home,” “Keep the Lights On,” “Lola Versus,” “Looper,” “The Magic of Belle Isle,” “Monday Morning,” “Nobody Walks,” “The Odd Life of Timothy Green,” “The Oranges,” “Parental Guidance,” “People Like Us,” “Phantom,” “The Possession,” “Promised Land,” “The Raven,” “Ruby Sparks,” “Safe,” “Safe House,” “Safety Not Guaranteed,” “Seeking a Friend for the End of the World,” “Smashed,” “Stand Up Guys,” “Ted,” “This Means War,” “Touchback,” Trouble with the Curve,” “Wanderlust,” “The Watch,” “What to Expect When You’re Expecting,” “Woman Thou Art Loosed” and “Won’t Back Down.”
And adapted:
Other adapted candidates: “360,” “Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter,” “The Amazing Spider-Man,” “The Avengers,” “Bachelorette,” “Being Flynn,” “Bernie,” “The Bourne Legacy,” “The Bronx Bull,” Cloud Atlas,” Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days,” “The Expendables 2,” “The Grey,” “Hitchcock,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” “The Hunger Games,” “Jack Reacher,” “KIller Joe,” “Killing them Softly,” “Lawless,” “Men In Black 3,” “Mirror Mirror,” “On the Road,” “One for the Money,” “The Paperboy,” “The Perks of Being a Wallflower,” “Pitch Perfect,” “Promotheus,” “Red Tails,” “Savages,” “The Sessions,” “Skyfall,” “Sleepwalk with Me,” “Snow White and the Huntsman,” “Sparkle,” “Taken 2” and “Twlight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2.”
won WGA | won Oscar
2011: Original | Original |
Win Win | The Artist* |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids |
50 50 | Margin Call |
Young Adult | A Separation |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris* |
Adapted | Adapted |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | The Ides of March |
Moneyball | Moneyball* |
The Help | Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
The Descendants | The Descendants* |
Hugo | Hugo* |
2010 | 2010 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Black Swan | The King’s Speech+ |
Please Give | Another Year |
The Fighter | The Fighter* |
The Kids Are All Right | The Kids Are All Right* |
Inception | Inception* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Social Network | The Social Network* |
127 Hours | 127 Hours* |
True Grit | True Grit* |
I Love You Philip Morris | Winter’s Bone* |
The Town | Toy Story 3* |
2009 | 2009 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
A Serious Man | A Serious Man* |
500 Days of Summer | Up* |
The Hangover | The Messenger |
Avatar | Inglourious Basterds* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air* |
Crazy Heart | In the Loop |
Star Trek | District 9* |
Precious | Precious* |
Julie & Julia | An Education* |
2008 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Milk | Milk* |
Burn After Reading | Frozen River |
The Visitor | Happy-Go-Lucky |
The Wrestler | In Bruges |
Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Wall-E |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Doubt | Doubt |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon* |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button* |
The Dark Knight | The Reader* |
2007 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Diablo Cody, Juno* | Diablo Cody, Juno* |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages | Tamara Jenkins, The Savages |
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl | Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl |
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up | Brad Bird, Ratatouille |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men | Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+ |
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Sarah Polley, Away from Her |
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac | Christopher Hampton Atonement* |
2006 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Babel | Babel* |
The Queen | The Queen * |
Stranger than Fiction | Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine * |
United 93 | Pan’s Labyrinth |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Departed | The Departed+ |
Thank You for Smoking | Notes on a Scandal |
Little Children | Little Children |
Borat | Borat |
Devil Wears Prada | Children of Men |
2005 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
40 Year Old Virgin | Syriana |
Crash+ | Crash+ |
Cinderella Man | Match Point |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night * |
Squid and the Whale | Squid and the Whale |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Capote | Capote* |
Constant Gardener | Constant Gardener |
History of Violence | History of Violence |
Syriana | Munich* |
2004 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Aviator | The Aviator* |
Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Garden State | Vera Drake |
Hotel Rwanda | Hotel Rwanda |
Kinsey | The Incredibles |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Before Sunset | Before Sunset |
Mean Girls | Finding Neverland* |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby+ |
Sideways | Sideways* |
Motorcycle Diaries | Motorcycle Diaries |
2003 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bend it Like Beckham | The Barbarian Invasions |
Dirty Pretty Things | Dirty Pretty Things |
In America | In America |
Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
The Station Agent | Finding Nemo |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
American Splendor | American Splendor |
Cold Mountain | City of God |
ROTK | ROTK* |
Mystic River | Mystic River * |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit* |
2002 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Far From Heaven | Far From Heaven |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York* |
Antwone Fisher | Talk to Her |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Greek Wedding |
Bowling for Columbine | Y Tu Mama Tambien |
Chicago | Chicago+ |
The Hours | The Hours* |
About Schmidt | The Pianist* |
Adaptation | Adaptation |
About a Boy | About a Boy |
2001 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Gosford Park* | Gosford Park* |
The Man Who Wasn’t There | Amelie |
Monster’s Ball | Monster’s Ball |
Moulin Rouge | Memento |
The Royal Tenenbaums | The Royal Tenenbaums |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Black Hawk Down | Shrek |
Bridget Jones’s Diary | In the Bedroom* |
Ghost World | Ghost World |
The Fellowship of the Ring | Fellowship of the Ring* |
2000 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Erin Brockovich | Erin Brockovich* |
Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
Best In Show | Gladiator+ |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot |
You Can Count On Me | You Can Count On Me |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Chocolat | Chocolat* |
High Fidelity | O Brother Where Art Thou? |
Traffic | Traffic* |
Wonder Boys | Wonder Boys |
1999 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Being John Malkovich | Being John Malkovich |
Magnolia | Magnolia |
The Sixth Sense | The Sixth Sense* |
Three Kings | Topsy-Turvy |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules* |
Election | Election |
The Insider | The Insider* |
October Sky | The Green Mile* |
The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Talented Mr. Ripley |
1998 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bulworth | Bulworth |
The Opposite of Sex | Life Is Beautiful * |
Shakespeare In Love* | Shakespeare In Love+ |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan* |
The Truman Show | The Truman Show |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Gods and Monsters | Gods and Monsters |
A Civil Action | The Thin Red Line* |
Primary Colors | Primary Colors |
A Simple Plan | A Simple Plan |
Out Of Sight* | Out Of Sight |
WINNERS CHART
+Won Best Picture *nominated for Best Pic
WGA | OSCAR
2011: Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
The Descendants | The Descendants |
2010 – Inception | The King’s Speech+ |
The Social Network | The Social Network* |
2009: The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
Up in the Air* | Precious* |
2008: Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Milk | Milk* |
2007: No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men+ |
Juno | Juno* |
2006: The Departed | The Departed+ |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine* |
2005:Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Crash | Crash+ |
2004: Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Sideways | Sideways* |
2003: Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
American Splendor | Return of the King+ |
2002: The Hours* | The Pianist* |
Bowling for Columbine | Talk to Her |
2001: A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Gosford Park | Gosford Park* |
2000: Traffic | Traffic* |
You Can Count on Me | Almost Famous |
1999: American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Election | The Cider House Rules* |
1998:Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love+ |
Out of Sight | Gods and Monsters |
1997: L.A. Confidential | L.A. Confidential* |
As Good as it Gets | Good Will Hunting* |
1996: Sling Blade | Sling Blade |
Fargo | Fargo* |
1995: Braveheart | The Usual Suspects |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility* |
1994: Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump+ |
Four Weddings/Funeral | Pulp Fiction* |
1993: Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List+ |
The Piano | The Piano* |
1992: The Crying Game | The Crying Game * |
The Player | Howards End* |
1991: The Silence of the Lambs | The Silence of the Lambs+ |
Thelma and Louise | Thelma and Louise |
1990: Dances with Wolves | Dances with Wolves+ |
Avalon | Ghost* |
1989: Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy+ |
Crimes and Misdemeanors | Dead Poets Society* |
1988: Dangerous Liaisons | Dangerous Liaisons* |
Bull Durham | Rain Man+ |
1987: Roxanne | The Last Emperor+ |
Moonstruck | Moonstruck* |
1986: A Room with a View | A Room with a View* |
Hannah and Her Sisters | Hannah and her Sisters* |
1985: Witness | Witness* |
Prizzi’s Honor | Out of Africa+ |
1984: The Killing Fields | Amadeus+ |
Broadway Danny Rose | Places in the Heart* |
1983: Tender Mercies | Tender Mercies* |
Reuben, Reuben | Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: Missing | Missing* |
Tootsie | Gandhi+ |
1981: Reds | Chariots of Fire+ |
On Golden Pond | On Golden Pond * |
Rich and Famous | |
Arthur | |
1980:Ordinary People | Ordinary People+ |
Airplane, Private Benjamin | |
Melvin and Howard | Melvin and Howard |
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
Breaking Away | Breaking Away* |
The China Syndrome, Being There | |
1978: Midnight Express | Midnight Express* |
Coming Home | Coming Home* |
Heaven Can Wait | |
Movie, Movie | |
1977: Annie Hall | Annie Hall+ |
Julia | Julia* |
The Turning Point, Oh, God | |
1976: All the President’s Men | All The President’s Men* |
Network | Network* |
Pink Panther Strikes Again | |
1975: One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
Dog Day Afternoon | Dog Day Afternoon* |
The Sunshine Boys | |
Shampoo | |
1974: Godfather Part II | Godfather Part II+ |
Chinatown | Chinatown* |
Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz | |
Blazing Saddles | |
1973: A Touch of Class | The Exorcist* |
Save the Tiger, Paper Moon | The Sting+ |
Serpico | |
1972: The Godfather | The Godfather+ |
The Candidate | The Candidate |
What’s Up, Doc? Cabaret | |
1971: The French Connection | The French Connection+ |
The Hospital | The Hospital |
Kotch; Sunday, Bloody, Sunday | |
1970: Patton | Patton+ |
M*A*S*H | M*A*S*H* |
I Never Sang for My Father, The Out-of Towners | |
1969: Midnight Cowboy | Midnight Cowboy+ |
Butch Cassidy | Butch Cassidy/Sundance Kid * |
Goodbye, Columbus; Bob, Ted, Carol and Alice | |
1968:Lion in Winter | The Lion in Winter* |
The Producers | The Producers |
Funny Girl, Odd Couple | |
1967: The Graduate | In the Heat of the Night+ |
Bonnie and Clyde | Guess Who’s Coming… * |
Thoroughly Modern Millie | |
1966: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolfe? | A Man for All Seasons+ |
The Russians are Coming | A Man and a Woman |
1965: A Thousand Clowns | Dr. Zhivago* |
The Sound of Music, The Pawnbroker | Darling* |
1964: Becket | Becket |
Dr. Strangelove, Mary Poppins | Father Goose |
1963: Hud | Tom Jones+ |
Lillies of the Field | How the West Was Won |
1962: The Kill a Mockingbird | To Kill a Mockingbird * |
That Touch of Mink, Music Man | Divorce Italian Style |
1961: the Hustler | Judgment at Nuremberg |
Breakfast at Tiffany’s, West Side Story | Splendor in the Grass |
1960: The Apartment | The Apartment+ |
Elmer Gantry | Elmer Gantry |
The Bells are Ringing | |
1959: The Diary of Anne Frank | Room at the Top * |
Some Like it Hot, Five Pennies | Pillow Talk |
1958: Gigi | Gigi+ |
The Defiant Ones | The Defiant Ones |
Me and the Colonel | |
1957: 12 Angry Men | Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
Love in the Afternoon | Designing Women |
Les Girls | |
1956: Around world/80 Days | Around world/80 Days+ |
The King and I | The red Balloon |
Friendly Persuasion | |
1955: Marty | Marty+ |
Mr. Roberts | Interrupted Melody |
Love Me/Leave Me | |
1954: On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront+ |
Sabrina, Seven Brides/Seven Bros. | The Country Girl |
1953: From Here to Eternity | From Here to Eternity+ |
Lili, Roman Holiday | Titanic |
1952: High Noon, The Quiet Man | Lavender Hill Mob |
Singing in the Rain | Bad and Beautiful |
1951: An American in Paris | An American in Paris+ |
A Place in the Sun | A Place in the Sun* |
Father’s Little Dividend | |
1950: All About Eve | All About Eve+ |
Sunset Boulevard | Sunset Boulevard * |
Broken Arrow, Annie Get Your Gun | |
1949: All the King’s Men | All the King’s Men+ |
A Letter to Three Wives, on the Town | Battleground* |
1958: The Snake Pit | Treasure of the Sierra Madre* |
Sitting Pretty, Easter Parade |