When Argo beat Silver Linings Playbook for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards last night, an award that movie should have had in a walk, and Lincoln took home two SAG Awards for its pair of actors (it was only expected to take one) it suddenly became obvious that a three-way split is going on in the awards race and Argo is benefiting from it.
This is somewhat reminiscent of 2010: it wasn’t The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network. It was The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network vs. Black Swan vs. The Fighter. Each film represented a specific group, or type of person, if you will. And none of those voting blocks could be convinced to drop their support of the one they loved and affix it to the only one that could have beaten The King’s Speech. Moreover, in that type of scenario, LEAST OFFENSIVE wins the day. No one hates Argo.
Once Zero Dark Thirty was no longer the critics’ favorite shiny new toy, they switched their support to Argo. Once they did that, it won the BFCA and the Globe and then PGA and then SAG. That is quite a winning streak for a late in the game play, one that can only be attributed to the lethal combination of a likable film, a least offensive film, and a charming actor/director whom the Academy snubbed. It is all very much playing out the way Apollo 13 played out, and if Affleck now wins the DGA, as all of my pundit pals are predicting, it will match Apollo 13 almost exactly (Apollo 13 did not win the Globe for Director, Mel Gibson did).
Let’s remember back to our experiment with Rotten Tomatoes. That site isn’t really great for figuring out positive reviews, but it is really great for figuring out divisive films. The reason for this is that they don’t hand out their rotten tomatoes easily. It has to be a pretty bad review to be called rotten. When we did the experiment, we saw it played out this way:
Amour–11 rotten
Argo–11 rotten
Zero Dark Thirty — 14 rotten
Silver Linings Playbook — 16 rotten
Lincoln — 21 rotten
Beasts of the Southern wild — 25 rotten
Life of Pi – 25 rotten
Django Unchained–26 rotten
Les Miserables — 63 rotten
Flashback to 2010
The Social network-11 rotten
The King’s Speech–12 rotten
The Fighter–22 rotten
Black Swan — 34 rotten
Inception–39 rotten
Since 2012, we have become much more polarized in our thinking. We do tend to take sides. But in a scenario where there are competing films, the one that people hate the least wins. It’s the Argo adage of “this is the best bad idea we have.” And it explains the Oscar race probably better than anything else ever has. Argo fans are fans that didn’t like any of the other films — either they liked Zero Dark Thirty and then got spooked, so those voters fled to the safety of Argo’s arms, or they just genuinely liked the film best. But you can’t talk Lincoln fans into voting for Argo and you can’t talk Argo fans into voting for Lincoln. Meanwhile, Silver Linings Playbook has strong enough support that it divides the votes further.
If it were Lincoln vs. Argo I really believe Lincoln, the masterpiece, the one that has made $167 million and has the most nominations, plus a director nomination, would win. But in our divisive culture, with so many other strong films pulling, it becomes a King’s Speech scenario where it’s Argo vs. Lincoln vs. Silver Linings Playbook vs. Life of Pi (those are the three DGA and Oscar nominees for Best Director).
The competing films represent three distinct demographics, and added to complicate things further, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables and Django Unchained, to say nothing of the Oscar race when Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are thrown into the mix. Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook are films people react to emotionally. Lincoln is a film people react to occasionally emotionally but more often than not, intellectually. Argo kind of has it all, it’s a one-size-fits-all movie. So then you have to wonder, why the director snub?
What to watch for:
Ballots have already been turned in for the Writers Guild. But if Argo manages to upset Lincoln in the adapted screenplay, where Tony Kushner has written a screenplay so artful, with such profound depth, then you will see Argo doing more than just what Apollo 13 did. It will already have one more prize that Apollo 13 when it wins the Editors Guild prize; Braveheart had won both the WGA and the Eddie that year.
Apollo 13 and Argo are very similar. Both had veteran actors and newbies. Both were directed by the most likable guy in town, an actor-turned-director. Both are “important” films about American history about heroes who were never allowed to take credit. Apollo 13 was about a failed mission, but a hero emerged. Argo is about a successful mission, a hero emerged. Neither of those heroes got their proper due. Perhaps both Ron Howard and Ben Affleck can relate — they both had to finally make a movie industry voters could handle before they started getting recognition; Ben Affleck’s two previous films were far more artistically daring but Argo does what neither of them could do: appeal generally across the board. Ron Howard had directed Cocoon, Splash, and Parenthood by the time he finally got “serious” with Apollo 13.
Both of them had to fight hard to be respected and both are nice, nice guys — actors from the old days who paid their dues. So naturally when the directors branch in the Academy decided that neither film was worthy of a Best Director nomination, the whole industry threw their support around Ron Howard, and the whole industry has thrown their support now around Ben Affleck.
What remains to be seen is whether Argo can do what Apollo 13 could not: overcome not having a Best Director nomination.
The only other director who won the DGA but wasn’t nominated for Best Director was, funnily enough, Steven Spielberg. Spielberg is not an actor. He doesn’t have the nice guy charm that plays well in front of a crowd. He’s a film nerd. His enthusiasm is in his work, not his personality. But he also had to fight long and hard for respectability and when he was shut out for The Color Purple there was a similar wave of support. The Best Picture prize ultimately went to Sidney Pollack and Out of Africa.
Why does the director nomination matter so much? I will be writing a DGA preview later today so I’ll hold off on specifics of what I’ll say later, but for now I’ll just say this. There are usually two kinds of films that do well in the Oscar race. Those that are director-driven and those that aren’t. As good as Ben Affleck is, Argo isn’t a director-driven film. It is a film people like across the board — anyone can sit down and watch that movie and enjoy it. Does it set the world on fire? No. Is it a visionary masterpiece? Nope. Is it a movie you can dive back into and discover something new each time? No. But it doesn’t matter because it’s a comfortable fit in a contentious year where so many greater visionary works are splitting up the vote.
As you can see by the critics top ten of the top tens, they liked Argo but it wasn’t in their top five — which begs the question, how did it manage to suddenly start winning critics awards? Well, it was the best bad idea they had:
When you get to the Oscars you will likely be dealing with a different tool kit. Voters will still split up in different ways. But this time, you really have only two directors who were also nominated for the DGA — Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee, funnily enough. Both directors lost big at past Oscar upsets when Crash beat Brokeback Mountain and Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan. If you think Argo is going to win Best Picture without a director nomination the next thing you have to do is figure out who is going to win Best Director.
Since Argo will have to make history to win (in several different ways, the least of which is the lack of a director nomination), it’s possible either Ang Lee or Spielberg could lose the DGA and still win the Oscar. For some reason I think if Spielberg loses the DGA he can’t then win the Oscar.
Argo will win a few more awards coming up. It will very well likely win the BAFTA — hell, they liked Argo so much they even nominated Ben Affleck for Best Actor. It will get yet another momentum bump there. And Ben Affleck, snubbed director made good, will probably win the DGA.
At the end of the day you are wise to continue on with the general consensus and choose Affleck for the DGA and Argo for Best Picture. I myself still believe that sooner or later voters will come to their senses and realize that Lincoln is the best film of 2012 and will reward it. I also think that neither Lincoln, Life of Pi nor Silver Linings Playbook are dead for Best Picture. Why? They all have director nominations.
Directors Guild preview coming later today.
Argo was such a boring, lousy movie. The only thing the movie accomplishes is making dumb people feel smart for getting it’s snail paced plot. The film is full of historical inaccuracies and many failed attempts at humor. I found the walk out of the theater more amusing than Argo.
Paul Voorhies wrote:
Does no one else see the psychology behind Argo’s winning? It’s a film about a
Hollywood film (involving actors, producers, hairstylists, costumers,
screenwriters, etc, etc.) that saved the lives of several Americans. Almost all
guilds are behind it because it makes voters feel good about themselves/a pat
on the back. I think that’s the biggest reason it keeps winning.
I totally agree. The CIA agent came up with the idea, but needed help from
Hollywood to pull the rescue off. I don’t understand this obsession with Rotten
Tomatoes as an indicator for predicting AA winners. RT is a critics forum. The
headline isn’t: Argo Wins As Least Offensive Film. It’s: Hollywood Rescues 6
Hostages!
Anyway, moving on to my weird/radical Oscar scenario. Some predictors think
Lincoln will benefit from the Affleck-BD snub. Meaning that voters looking for
a match up with picture and director will finally turn to Lincoln. But what
about Amour? With nominations in 4 major categories, this film is already liked
by a lot of AMPAS members. And as Scott I. wrote: if Argo wins Best Picture,
and since Affleck is not on the ballot for director, perhaps Haneke could win
to match up a director with people’s choice for *a* best film?
Why not? And I’ll even go a step or two further. If Haneke is the BD choice,
why not pick him in the writing category (OS) as well. In 2 cases here, neither
film nor director was nominated (Flight & Moonrise Kingdom). As for the other
two nominees — Quentin Tarantino and Mark Boal? Their film’s director was not
nominated. Haneke stands alone.
And then there’s the Best Actress category. It’s been an amazing awards season
for Jennifer Lawrence. Only 22, she already has two Oscar nominations in her
young career. There will be more opportunities for her, I’m sure. What about
giving the Oscar to Emmanuelle Riva on her 86th birthday (Feb. 24), making her
the oldest person to win for acting? Can the voters pass up this historical opportunity?
And speaking of an historical opportunity (and this is where it really gets
weird/radical/outrageous), I’m hoping Argo wins the coveted BP prize — and
nothing else! Such an opportunty for the Academy to make history probably will
not happen again. But will they do it? More than likely, they’ll give Argo a
couple of Oscars in the technical categories. What a pity!
As for Lincoln, it’ll win for actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), supporting actor (Tommy
Lee Jones), and adapted screenplay (Tony Kushner). And it probably will pick up
enough trophies in the technical categories, so its producers and marketing
people can at least brag about winning the most Oscars.
The biggest loser of the night could be the Weinstein Company. Trying for a
three-peat in the BP category and garnering a total of 16 nominations (same as
last year), the WC may end up going home with nothing.
“I love February because, here in my hometown of New Orleans, it’s Mardi Gras time and, internationally, we get to dish all this Oscar stuff.”
I know this is OT, but I’m totally jealous Paul. Especially, right now, being a 49er fan.
Argo is directed by an actor. History repeats itself, and Argo has history backing it up. Robert Redford (white heartthrob, win for Ordinary People), Kevin Costner (white heartthrob, win for Dances With Wolves), Mel Gibson (white heartthrob, win for Braveheart). Affleck would have won Best Director if he were nominated. Argo will win Best Picture because it appeals to the largest voting body of the Academy.
I also agree that Argo celebrates movie-making and spreads the kudos around to even the lesser known trades within the industry, so it has that going for it as well.
And it doesn’t really matter which movie wins for me. Any one of the nominees winning would be justified. The movie I enjoyed the most was Life of Pi, but I know that doesn’t have a chance.
Thanks for addressing my comments to those of you who did. I am personally pulling for Argo to win, but I think that anyone who is counting out Lincoln is being foolhardy. I’ve never gotten the Silver Linings argument, though it was a fine rom-com, with far more to say than most.
As for Sasha and her comments, well, I’ve come to enjoy this time of year. It makes for a lot of fun reading and debating, you guys must admit. At the end of the day, Sasha is just arguing for a film she passionately loves, as many of us are wont to do.
I love February because, here in my hometown of New Orleans, it’s Mardi Gras time and, internationally, we get to dish all this Oscar stuff. So while I think that sometimes Sasha’s arguing points can be specious, I still enjoy reading them, even if they sometimes do get my nose out of joint occasionally, just a bit.
AwardsDaily is like Mardi Gras in many ways. Everyone’s a little bit crazy, and it’s all in the spirit of the season. We’d all be the worse off without AD–no question there. Over the years/decade plus I’ve been tuning in, I’ve come to just take it for what it is.
Y’all have fun, and play nice now.
No one needs to rebut anything I write, julian! But thank you for the (indirect) compliment.
This isn’t a debate and if it were I’d run away pretty fast. I like Ryan and Sasha both and I’m grateful for the opportunity to discuss films.
One issue I do have consistently with Sasha’s analysis is her reliance on previous years. The race has changed so much in the last 15 years that really looking back more than a handful of years is self-defeating. I would never look longer than a decade and even this year, it’s kind of silly to look back before last year since the nominating system is completely differnent, and with preferential balloting before that (in 2008, 2009?)
The rules are different, and your analysis should reflect that.
And as someone said elsewhere (sadly, I can’t recall who, but it’s one of the smart commenters) every year is different since it’s a different slate of films.
I think the only safe rule that you can learn from these two years that will carry into next year, is that broadly popular films have no shot at getting a nomination unless they at least have a pretense of substance. I know that’s a rule that was in place before (although The Fugitive and Raiders of the Lost Ark defied that rule) but with Bridesmaids last year and Skyfall this year, these are two films that should, theoretically, have benefitted from this new system, but neither did.
Argo will win editing and that is the only category right now. Adapted screenplay will depend on who will win BP.
Everyone, chill. Guess what? This whole turkey shoot is WAY easier once you put quotes around the “Best” in “Best Picture” of the year. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t. Sasha has understood this for years (and says as much above):
“It disgusts me that the Oscars have become the People’s Choice awards. They used to be so much more respectable […] Now, they pick wonderful nominees but settle on the lowest common denominator.”
Let’s not forget we’re talking about a “Best Picture” lineup that excludes The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Holy Motors, Skyfall, etc. etc. [insert your egregious snub here].
The eventual winner isn’t 2012’s “Best Picture”. It’s “The Movie We Liked Most in 2012”, where “We” stands for 6,000 AMPAS members/revered film artisans such as Nia Vardalos, Roger Corman, Meat Loaf and Bryan Adams.
CB, When something is inserted in brackets [like this] those brackets indicate that the editor has inserted the words inside the brackets.
That’s not a rule of this site. It’s a rule of the English language.
I have never ever seen a forum where that is the case. I think if you want to delete my comments, that is well within your right. But putting words under my ‘name’ is totally unfair, and I’m guessing you would feel the same way were you in my shoes.
Sorry but occasionally I pull rank. Love having commenters but when you cross the line and act like an asshole I have the right to control the content of my site, which includes the comments.
I don’t see how I crossed the line. I said I found Kushner’s work by and large unappealing and overrated. Then I said ‘Lincoln is stinkin” which is admittedly and obviously sophomoric, but no less crude than using the word ‘asshole’. We’re at that stage of the race where we’re all angry at one another’s opinions and movies. I’m sorry if I was undiplomatic, and I have routinely apologized when and if I might have offended someone. And Ryan, once in a while, you will too. So I’m asking in that spirit for you to delete the comment that you have under my name as a show of basic respect, and I’ll do my best to avoid hitting your nerves when I defend my movies and critique yours.
It would be nice if someone (Sasha or Ryan) took the time to address the set of (very good) arguments made my rufussondheim…
“It was The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network vs. Black Swan vs. The Fighter.”
-Nah. It was all Social Network until late in the game. Then it was Social Network vs. King’s Speech. No other films were ever seriously in the mix. Not for Best Picture & Director, anyway.
As glad as I’d be to see ARGO win (particularly over SLP and LINCOLN), the Academy is obviously thinking very differently from everyone else this year, and that Best Director snub is a pretty big problem. Personally, I thought Django, Argo and Life of Pi were the best three of the year, so if we had, say, Argo taking BP and Life of Pi taking Director, that would make make my night.
“No one hates Argo” — exactly
Since I just woke up and can’t fall asleep again I want to put some of my thoughts into words. … And since films and the Oscar race basically never really get out of my head. 🙂
First, I used to favor Argo. I was carried away by what saw on the big screen. But that was the impression of one viewing (and my evaluations tend to change after at least one more viewing). But strangely enough since having only re-watched the trailer for Argo several times I’m not sure about my feelings towards it anymore. Because I hardly felt anything anymore. Maybe it’s because it isn’t that factually accurate (what seems to have taken some time to sink in). … Gee, I don’t know. Damn, I really hope I like it again when I see it the next time.
Silver Linings Playbook – a film that isn’t well liked around here. Unfortunately. Unfortunately? Well, maybe next time I see it I don’t like it as well. Influenced by the debate about its characters and its (happy ever after) ending. But that actually is the thing I think (at least for me). The character problem. I mean, even lots of ever so great films have characters in it whose actions aren’t understandable. … But how about this: In real life sometimes people’s actions are just not understandable either.
In contrast to the above mentioned films Life of Pi is the film I only found to be OK. Maybe it’s because I consider myself an agnostic. The first thing I thought after having seen the film was: Gee whiz! That second version of the whole story turned everything pretty much upside down for me. It even somewhat made me upset. But the religious superstructure of exactly that is what I didn’t like about the film. I even think it to be completely out of place – considering what happened to the protagonist. Telling a human and heartbreaking story in two different ways just to conclude it with “And so it goes with God”? Such a conclusion appears to me being completely unworthy. But that’s just my very own opinion.
So, these are three of the four films from the so called TKS scenario. The only film missing is Lincoln. The reason is that it still doesn’t play in any of the cinemas in my city. And I have a bad feeling that this won’t change. 🙁
I have been a long time reader for this site and believe you are a fabulous writer. However, in recent years you have become mean, spiteful, and insulting to both movies you say you loved earlier and to your readers who disagree with your personal choice for the Oscar. You wrote great reviews to both The Artist and Argo saying you loved both at the time of their release. You personally made me excited to see both of these films. However, once these films get in the way of the movie you loved, the frontrunner for the Oscar all of a sudden becomes this boring, dumb, obvious choice the herd is choosing to follow.
I know you probably get this all the time, but maybe Lincoln is not everyone’s favorite movie? Everyone I have talked to (admittedly not the largest sampling of opinions in the world) enjoyed Lincoln, but did not love it like they did SLP, Argo, ZDT, Django Unchained, or Life of Pi. Your writing style is so aggressive it makes your opinions come across as facts, not your personal opinions. When people (including all the award circuits that snubbed it) do not believe Lincoln was the best movie of the year, you belittle their opinion if they disagree with you. I felt the same reading last year when you were pushing Hugo.
The point I wanted to make is you have a great talent for writing about movies and I love reading your thoughts throughout the year. But when Oscar time comes it makes it hard for me to keep remaining so loyal to your site. I am not trying to say you need to follow everyone else or not advocate for your favorite film to win, but maybe not being so nasty about it all the time will help your readers enjoy this website so much more.
You can go ahead and tell me to go find another website to read, delete my post, or take one line of my post out of context. But I just wanted to share my thoughts with you in hopes that maybe you won’t always belittle films you once said you loved in your articles and to your readers who’s only crime is remaining loyal to AD. We may begin to read these great reviews and articles throughout the year and wonder if they have any truth or sincerity at all. After all, Argo was a “great fucking movie” to you once, but now all of a sudden is Affleck’s worst movie.
The point I wanted to make is you have a great talent for writing about movies and I love reading your thoughts throughout the year. But when Oscar time comes it makes it hard for me to keep remaining so loyal to your site.
I understand. I don’t want you to be loyal to my site. I really don’t. I want to write the way I want to write. If people like to read it, great. But I have things I need to say and I say them. For better or worse. Sorry I don’t kiss ass well enough for your liking. But I will keep doing this until I stop making money and then I will go live a normal life. It disgusts me that the Oscars have become the People’s Choice awards. They used to be so much more respectable, even when their choices weren’t that great. Now, they pick wonderful nominees but settle on the lowest common denominator. What wins Best Picture decides what will be made from here on out. In a year with so many visionary films, such brilliant movie making, it is a damn shame to see Lincoln put in the same pile as the other films with 12 nominations that didn’t win. That is to be this wonderful film’s place in Oscar history. Forgive me if I see it as my place to tell people that. But I can give you a LONG list of people who will butter your bread where Argo is concerned – start with In Contention, then you could try Gold Derby, and Thelma Adams over at Yahoo Movies is a true Lincoln hater is already writing about its demise. Only here at Awards Daily will you find advocacy for what I think is the best, most original, high mark of Spielberg’s career. I’m 47 years old. I don’t owe anyone anything. I have written a lot of stuff this year. I had Argo’s back during the whole Canadian controversy. We knew it was a wide open year where anything can win. Argo is not a bad movie but its director was not nominated. That means it should be a harder win than the film that came in with 12. Here’s a list for you:
12 Ben-Hur
12 The English Patient
12 On The Waterfront
12 My Fair Lady
12 Dances With Wolves
12 Schindler’s List
12 Mrs. Miniver
12 Gladiator
12 The Song of Bernadette* (Casablanca–director win)
12 A Streetcar Named Desire* (An American in Paris–director nommed, didn’t win)
12 The King’s Speech
12 Reds (won director)* (Chariots of Fire–director nommed but did not win)
12 Johnny Belinda (Hamlet — director nommed but did not win) *
12 Becket *(My Fair Lady–director win)
12 Lincoln
The starred movies didn’t win BP. So Lincoln joins an esteemed list of very few films that have gotten to 12. It is far superior to most of them. My Fair Lady is a joke. A Streetcar Named Desire is a masterpiece but you think a movie like that is going to make people LOVE it? But do you think it should have won that year? Reds, an epic masterpiece but do you think a movie like that is going to make people LOVE it? No, they loved Chariots of Fire, a movie no one remembers and no one ever talks about. Woe be unto the movie that beats Lincoln. If I’d been around during Reds you can bet I would have been championing it too. And if I had any inkling Chariots of Fire would have won I would have said everything I could to change the course of history.
It makes me frustrated and angry that this is to be the fate of Lincoln. It deserves to win Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, at the very least.
You can go. Don’t feel guilty. I cannot please all of the commenters all of the time. I don’t try to. I never have. I do my thing. I own my own business which I have built from the ground up. People complain at me all of the time but hey, I’d rather be divisive than a general audience crowdpleaser.
Paul, I think that’s part of it. It is said that actors, the biggest voting branch in the academy, like voting for actors who direct. Well, Ben Affleck is going to win best director, but they can give him Best picture.
@C. Bezerra…Linc4Jess, 1 million is not a blockbuster opening in Brazil. From 4 million, we can say it is a blockbuster opening. About public”s response to the movie, in Facebook, Twitter or Filmow, the talk right now is Django Unchained.
Well, I am thinking your comments should be directed at the professional who do box office projections for a living because they are the ones who are reporting the comments I made. And yes. “Django Unchained’ box office IS ON FIRE OVERSEAS.
I agree, Paul, and have said so. A well-made thriller where Hollywood helps save the day? Are you kidding?
Just open the tin – you don’t even have to call “kitty”.
I’m going to keep at it until someone comments on it:
Does no one else see the psychology behind Argo’s winning? It’s a film about a Hollywood film (involving actors, producers, hairstylists, costumers, screenwriters, etc, etc.) that saved the lives of several Americans. Almost all guilds are behind it because it makes voters feel good about themselves/a pat on the back. I think that’s the biggest reason it keeps winning.
Please discuss.
It’s a great point, Paul. Sasha, Craig and I have talked about that on more than one occasion on the Oscar Podcast. I can’t remember if we wrote about it very explicitly on the site, but Sasha does allude to Argo’s industry appeal in today’s post about the DGA.
I brought it up again during the Oscar Podcast we recorded Sunday night right after the SAG Awards, but I’m not sure how much of what I said will make it into the final edited version of the podcast after Sasha trims my ramblings into coherence.
This isn’t me trying to say, First! Not at all. Only letting you know that you’re right in sync with recognizing a factor that has been noted over the past several weeks. But maybe we all underestimated its importance, so it’s good that you’re pushing it to the front burner of discussion again.
Ego, meet Argo, right?
(Ego fuck yourself?)
Comment
Apollo 13 was a huge success of boxoffice ( no.3 yearly , TOM HANKS was a golden boy at that time ) , won the PGA, DGA, and SAG awards in 1996, then only got two oscar awards from nine nominations (editing and sound).
Will Argo follow in Apollo 13’s footsteps ? editing + Sound Editing / Sound Mixing ?
Linc4Jess, 1 million is not a blockbuster opening in Brazil. From 4 million, we can say it is a blockbuster opening. About public”s response to the movie, in Facebook, Twitter or Filmow, the talk right now is Django Unchained. Weeks ago it was Life of PI. Those two movies opened and had a imediate massive response on social networks, which Lincoln did not achieve. And as an example you can see this review here: http://www.cinemaemcena.com.br/plus/modulos/filme/ver.php?cdfilme=23
It’s from Pablo Villaça, one of the most influencial film critics here. He gave the movie 2 stars (on the left side of the page) and the public gave it 3 stars (the right side of the page). If you wanna read it, put it on google translator. Do as you wish. And the fact is that Lincoln does not have the huge support here as it has in US.
Yet, the voters are all swayed by “Poor Ben Affleck” or they seem to be voting for films simply because they don’t want to see something else win.
Or maybe they honestly like Argo? GASP!!!!
The thing that really annoys me about this year’s Oscar race is that there are so many worthwhile films – films that will stand the test of time historically. Yet, the voters are all swayed by “Poor Ben Affleck” or they seem to be voting for films simply because they don’t want to see something else win.
If only Academy voters would remember that each win will go down in HISTORY as the best of that year. Does each film/performance deserve a place in history??
In my opinion, there is absolutely no way Jennifer Lawrence should go down in history as the best actress performance of 2012 simply because Harvey Weinstein is able to beat voters over the head about it. Emmanuelle Riva gave a historical performance. Second, Naomi Watts.
For best film, I loved Argo. Is it the best film of the year? Sure, very entertaining. But, with a category that includes such films as Amour, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild – films that will be studied in film schools for years to come. Films that made people think. Films that left you stunned and thinking for a few days. THIS is really the power of movies, and a film that has this power should go down in history as the best film of 2012.
But one day, one will break through and be worthy of awards consideration.
That movie already broke through. It came out in 2006 and was called Letters from Iwo Jima.
I don’t get the comment that Lincoln is supposedly boring therefore won’t get votes.
I don’t either, but because opinions should not be stated as facts. I, like you, still wonder why people do this. And for what it’s worth, there was a round of applause at my screening. That has to mean something, right?
Some of you people are getting WAY too caught up in precursors. Haven’t we already seen this year that the Academy is doing its own thing this year?
I suppose I can plug this site “WhatCulture”. Its headline today is “TEN reasons why LINCOLN will win the OSCAR for best picture. Interesting read.
I mean anything can happen when people vote and I am not saying the film is not good, since I haven’t seen it, as a matter of fact practically no one has seen it, but I rather doubt that Haneke will win best director and I cite its box office as the reason why. I mean the film has being out for several weeks and amassed less than 2million dollars domestically and just 13m overseas. This said, I could be very wrong.
@C. Bezzera..I’.m not from the USA and I think that something to be considered in all this Lincol vs Argo vs Silver Linings vs Life of PI talk is the fact that internationally Lincoln is not so loved like in USA. I say this because I’m from Brazil and of all Lincoln reviews accounted here have been at the best scenario good, like a 3 from 5 stars,
REALLY. I just happened to read that “Lincoln” is having a mammoth success overseas. The per screen averages are scorching and it still has some 54 markets to go. In Brazil, “Lincoln” had a landslide blockbuster opening of $1M in just 151 theaters. It must have being all those bad reviews you mentioned that help get “Lincoln” the success it is having.