What would be the film that would drag the Academy kicking and screaming into the modern era? Would it be a Jim Cameron 3-D sci-fi epic? Nope. Would it be Martin Scorsese brilliantly utilizing the up-to-the-minute technology of today to bring to life the origins of film itself? No. The Academy hews close to its own beginnings. Nuts and bolts filmmaking that relies mostly on acting, directing and writing. Visual effects? Not to much. Motion capture? Forget it. And 3D? You might as well be offering up rabbit as your Thanksgiving meal.
Here we are once again with Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, a film so unlike any other it cannot help but present itself as a viable Best Picture contender. It was that the moment it hit Venice. It remained that when it ran through Telluride. With a few films left to see, the Best Picture race still feels like it’s down to a small handful of films for the win. 12 Years a Slave still has the momentum and importance to go the distance. Gravity is close behind, and has already won the first Oscar of the year for Visual Effects. No contest necessary. Captain Phillips is a formidable challenger. Finally, the sleeper underdog Nebraska might be the film no one sees coming. We still wait for American Hustle, maybe Wolf of Wall Street, Saving Mr. Banks, and Her.
How does the year shape up the way it does? Is it the pundits’ fault for herding the select few into a pen? Or does it just magically happen that way? Some films stand the test of running a brutal gauntlet of bloggers, critics and ticket buyers to emerge as one movie most can agree on is best. That means, in 2013, the film with the least amount of baggage. In today’s world, baggage means one person whining about something that gets exploded into a “thing” and soon it becomes a “controversy” and soon, there is too much baggage attached. Voting FOR something is about self-identification more than it is anything else. What film makes them feel obligated to vote for something they don’t like (can’t win)? What film is too big ignore (might win)? What film makes a person feel good when they check that box (will win)?
You can’t win Best Picture now unless voters want to see you win. They want to see you win because they either really liked your movie a lot (The Artist) or they liked your movie better than the one that was supposed to win (The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network); Sometimes a Best Picture winner is really a vote against what ought to be named the Best Picture of the year (Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash).
We are dwelling in the best moment of the Oscar race, before things take a darker turn. And they will take a darker turn, my friends. They always do. You can feel the backlash towards Gravity in its beginning stages. No film wants to be a frontrunner, or THE frontrunner because it’s like having a bulls-eye on its back. Suddenly, those who loved Gravity figured out it has a woman in the lead and that is leading to all kinds of torment with the ruling sex, white men who are used to having the whole thing revolve around their internal struggle. Sure, it’s a fine struggle. We watch it go down every year. We patiently watch as men come of age, come of middle age and then come of old age. We watch Jennifer Lawrence nurse the crazy ones back to health, and we watch them rescue hostages on our behalf. We watch them free the slaves and we watch them live out their dreams in quiet desperation.
So some brave filmmaker decided to put a woman in the hot seat. What of her dreams? What of her will to live? What of her desire to fight? It’s all there in Gravity, and yet … here’s some guy on Vanity Fair calling it a chick flick in disguise because George Clooney pops in to give her an idea of what to do next in order to get back to Earth. But if you see the film it isn’t him at all. Perhaps, because she only trained for six months and has no real idea what she’s doing up there (not because she’s a woman but because she’s a newbie) she had to think like her superior. Sometimes problems get solved when we aren’t thinking about them. Sometimes they come to us in a dream, other times in a vision, and even sometimes in a hallucination. Yet, the writer at Vanity Fair doesn’t seem able to hold both of those ideas in his head at once and must do what he’s been trained to do: downgrade the whole thing because a woman stars in the film.
When Gravity starts winning things, and it will, the backlash will continue to grow. As Sandra Bullock edges closer to her second Best Actress win (a distinct possibility at this point) it will grow bigger. And all the while, the films that held the frontrunner spot early will breathe a sigh of relief that they aren’t out front. Once they’re put there, however, the cycle will repeat itself. The most common mantra: “It wasn’t THAT good.”
How you keep winning is to have people continue to see you as an underdog winner, a little movie that could. On the flipside of that is an unquivocal winner, like a Schindler’s List or a No Country for Old Men. Sometimes the best film of the year is obvious and no amount of backlash can touch it. But this year is going to be a competitive one. There are so many good films in the race already — and if those that have yet to present themselves are that good, we will have a heated race for Best Picture equal to last year’s.
A film could win on its own merit but every winner needs an “Oscar story” to push it through a heated season. What 12 Years a Slave has going for it is that it could make Oscar history with the first black filmmaker to win. Ever. That is a powerful motivator for voters. Add to that, nice guy Brad Pitt gets to win a producing Oscar, which only helps keep the train rolling on. But it has some stiff competition right now with Gravity and Captain Phillips, two very strong contenders that are vigorously directed and deeply moving. That none of these three directors is American is a sad lament. Alexander Payne, David O. Russell, Martin Scorsese, John Lee Hancock, George Clooney, Lee Daniels, Ryan Coogler, Ron Howard, Joel and Ethan Coen, JC Chandor, Woody Allen, and Richard Linklater are the American sons hovering on the fringes.
The Oscars aren’t just a domestic product anymore. To succeed now you have to succeed internationally. The internet has allowed for a global reach in all aspects. Only traditionalists wish the Oscars to remain distinctly American. It seems an out of date concept by now. Americans are handicapped by many things now, but none so much as consumerism. If your ultimate aim is just to make money, sooner or later quality will fall away. It is time for Americans to take a good long look at themselves, especially where art and culture, deemed irrelevant by our public school system, are not being fortified. For its faults (simply that other films were more ambitious) Argo was wildly entertaining, a story well told, in a distinctly American way.
The trick now is manage the buzz. If voting is a way of identifying oneself, perception becomes everything. Remember last year’s Zero Dark Thirty, how it kept winning everything until it got to the LA Film Critics awards and how they took a hard stance against awarding it?
The giving out of awards, in the tiny group that follows it, becomes its own circus. The first of these this year will be the New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review. How have those awards influenced or matched with Oscar for the past ten years? The National Board of Review used to be first but the New York Film Critics decided to shift their dates to be the first to ring in. Their power to influence the direction of the race must be acknowledged. Their voting system is bizarre. I won’t try to explain it because I don’t entirely understand it, but it has to do with a first vote, then a second vote, then a third vote, and on and on.
Once they ring in, the trajectory is set. The biggest and most influential film critics awards would be New York, National Board of Review, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, the National Society of Film Critics and the Southeastern Film Critics. When I started blogging about the Oscars, people like me and people who voted on critics awards were a different group. But slowly, they have merged so that many people who cover the awards also vote on them. Funny, that.
The Critics Choice awards and the Golden Globes are their own animals. They hit just before the major guild awards, which really are the biggest deciders now of the consensus vote. The Producers Guild takes off just after the Golden Globes and these days, there is total unity between the PGA, the DGA and Oscar.
If there was more time between the voting of these awards and the Oscar votes, there might be time for the Academy to go its own way, but that hasn’t happened yet. The ship gets too big to turn around in time to avoid the iceberg. Inevitability sets in. Human nature defined and exposed. The 4,500 voting members of the PGA agree with the 14,000 or so voting members of the DGA and the 6,000 or so voting members of the Academy.
Last year, Zero Dark Thirty was winning everything until its baggage became too heavy. Lincoln and Life of Pi had their followers but the default choice if it wasn’t going to be Zero Dark Thirty became Argo. You can track the wins, track the buzz and this truth will reveal itself. Some will say that Argo was the bigger crowdpleaser and that when it came down to thousands voting, and not hundreds, that made all the difference. And that’s probably true too. You can look at it either way. We will never know the truth.
That’s why when 12 Years a Slave won the audience award at Toronto it became the strongest contender so far. What it needed was broad audience support, which it got.
But let’s look at the National Board of Review’s past winners:
2000 Quills, Philip Kaufman
2001 Moulin Rouge! Baz Luhrmann
2002 The Hours, Stephen Daldry
2003 Mystic River, Clint Eastwood
2004 Finding Neverland, Marc Forster
2005 Good Night, and Good Luck. George Clooney
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood
2007 No Country for Old Men, Ethan & Joel Coen
2008 Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle
2009 Up in the Air, Jason Reitman
2010 The Social Network, David Fincher
2011 Hugo, Martin Scorsese
2012 Zero Dark Thirty, Kathryn Bigelow
Only Slumdog and No Country won the NBR and then Oscar because they were both juggernauts that couldn’t be derailed. In other years, the NBR set the tone for a strong nominee, just not the crowdpleasing winner. Vive la difference.
By contrast, here are the New York Film Critics winners for Best Film:
2000 Traffic, Steven Soderbergh
2001 Mulholland Drive, David Lynch
2002 Far from Heaven, Todd Haynes
2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Peter Jackson
2004 Sideways, Alexander Payne
2005 Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee
2006 United 93, Paul Greengrass
2007 No Country for Old Men, Ethan & Joel Coen
2008 Milk, Gus Van Sant
2009 The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow
2010 The Social Network, David Fincher
2011 The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
2012 Zero Dark Thirty, Kathryn Bigelow
Their track record is slightly better. But bear in mind that they only recently altered their date to fall before the National Board of Review.
The Social Network proved that a film could win every critics’ award and still not woo the broader consensus vote. It was heartbreaking to watch the best film of the year not be named Best Picture by the Academy. But a lot has changed over the years in some ways. In other ways, nothing has changed. The Academy remains the fairly conservative-minded relatives who show up to the table and everyone has to make the conversation go vanilla. We adapt our thinking to the Academy’s if we’re in the Oscar-watching business. If we’re in it long enough our hearts get broken almost every year. Unless they don’t. But if they do, the trick is not minding.
Best Picture rankings:
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. Captain Phillips
4. Nebraska
5. The Butler
6. Inside Llewyn Davis
7. All is Lost
8. Labor Day
9. Dallas Buyers Club
10.Rush
11. Blue Jasmine
12. The Fifth Estate
13. Blue is the Warmest Colour
14. Before Midnight
Still to come:
1. The Monuments Men
2. American Hustle
3. Saving Mr. Banks
4. Her
“Gravity” would be the shortest Best Picture winner in Oscar history.
I have now seen both GRAVITY and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS and I must say I loved both.
The metascore of 96% for Gravitiy is misleading. In this case it doesn’t mean “masterpiece” or “one of the greatest films of all times”. I think Ryan wrote somewhere to interpret it as “high level entertainment”. That’s the best way to enjoy this movie. Even A.O Scott admits in his review: “The script is, at times, weighed down by some heavy screenwriting clichés. Some are minor, like the fuel gauge that reads full until the glass is tapped, causing the arrow to drop. More cringe-inducing is the tragic back story stapled to Stone, a doctor on her first trip into orbit.” So it’s worth reading the reviews that are more complex than the numbers on metacritic.
Who else laughed to themselves, imagining a shark appearing?
Great movie, but if it comes down to Sandra Bullock and Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, then Blanchett takes home the Oscar.
The atmoshpere of Gravity is the Best Actor.
I laugh when I hear that the story of Gravity is thin. I hate to point out, but if you look at the story of 2001, it’s kinda thin too. Take away all the interpretations that have been done for decades since ’68. Aliens were on the earth and erected a monolith confusing a bunch of apes. Another monolith is found on the moon. A signal is sent off to Jupiter causing man to investigate. During the trip the computer breaks down, causing the astronauts to fight for their survival. The sole survivor tries to contact the aliens only to be whisked away and transformed into a fetus.
Lame lame lame lame.
Seriously, it is what is brought to the film that makes it great. It is Kubrick’s craft that transforms another technology run amok story into one of the greatest films of all time. I have spent countless hours analyzing the film discussing the details (and its liberty with physics).
I plan on seeing Gravity again to soak up the symbolism, Cuaron’s craftsmanship, Bullock’s acting. I know this movie—as thin as it is on the surface—has a lot more to offer.
Haha, yeah, the story of The Red Balloon is so thin, you guys! Just some kid and a balloon that follows him around? So fucking stupid, you guys! What about the kid’s backstory? Or the balloon’s? WHERE WAS THAT DAMN BALLOON MANUFACTURED??????
Oh my goodness.
What’s great about 2001 is how it affected people. I remember on the eve of 2001 being all excited about the future of mankind, waiting to watch the film 2001 at midnight on TCM. Of course I’d seen it before but it seemed like the perfect and only thing I should be doing just then. Then the next morning I woke up and saw on the news that a giant monolith had appeared. 😀 That’s when I love humans. I think the best movies are meant to inspire us. 2001 certainly did that in spades for many generations. Our world is richer for it.
And I wholeheartedly agree with you. 2001 had at its core a very simple plot. It was the richness of Clarke’s writing and Kubrick’s execution that made it so profound.
Just to get in on whether Gravity is a Science Fiction story, I have to ask, what was scientific about it? Space by itself is just space. Rockets themselves are merely vessels that take people and things into space. The movie was definitely fictitious, but by no means was it Science Fiction.
Star Wars is Sci-Fi because of the fact that most of the technology in the movie hasn’t been invented in real life. Most if not all you see in Gravity has.
They just released another “American Hustle” trailer today! I think this just might crash the party and end up in the Top 5. The trailer definitely has me excited. The only thing that is confusing me is Jennifer Lawrence’s role. I feel like she is just too young for the part.
Saw Gravity a second time. It still plays well. But it’s just not a best picture. It’s too thin, story wise. And compared to the visual splendor and inventiveness of, say, last year’s Life of Pi, I don’t think it’s a complete groundbreaker on that front either. Looking forward to a best picture with more characterization and narrative texture.
Agreed
“Looking forward to a best picture with more characterization and narrative texture”
I heard somewhere that a Best Picture needs 600 grams of characterization and at least 100 grams of narrative texture.
But you never know, things can change; Amadeus had too many notes but still won Best Picture.
Agree 100%!! I went to see Gravity wanting and expecting to love it – and to be blown away.
I was quite shocked when I left. Shocked that a movie that short can be as boring as it was. Sandra Bullock’s frustrated/angry freakouts were a JOKE. The only parts I responded to emotionally were George Clooney’s scenes, particularly as time went by. I could not bring myself to care about Ryan.
If Avatar, Hugo, and Life of Pi are Oscar kin and Gravity is the next one in that group, it is definitely closer to Avatar than the other two.
Overall, I think it’s a pretty weak film that rightfully will clean up in tech awards. Bullock even getting a nomination should be seen as scandalous.
Okay. Thank you.
I missed seeing your explanation yesterday because I’ve been away from the desk a lot and can’t access the threads of cconversation the way I’m used to doing. I’ll go find and read it when I get home.
My point was to stop being nasty to people over something insignificant. But go ahead, continue. No more “scolding” from me.
I’ve already explained why I considered them Sci-Fi in the post you’re referring to. Why say it again? You don’t want to hear it.
Apollo 13 is sci-fi to the very same degree Gorillas in the Mist is sci-fi. They fail the test of being fiction because both are fact.
You guys that are going out of your way to make sure people don’t call GRAVITY Sci-Fi to the point of calling people “ignorant” if they think it is, know the only reason you’re making such a big stink about it is because you believe the Academy won’t vote for it if they think it’s Sci-Fi. So this whole campaign against people who had the audacity to call it ‘Sci-Fi’ is some kind of damage control. But the fact is nobody really knows that anyone would watch the film, love it then go to their ballot and think “Oh no. I can’t vote for it. It’s Sci-Fi.” Just the idea of that is out of this world.
Call it sci-fi if you want. All I’m doing is saying why I dont think it is. Antoinette, you’re a friend, but surely you see how your adamant stance is just as bullheaded as anyone else’s opinion. Nobody here is telling you to lay off the way you seem to be scolding others. I let it slide yesterday when you called Apollo 13 sci-fi. But holy heck, in what universe (where there is no earth and moon) is Apollo 13 sci-fi? Apollo 13 is a scrupulously realistic near-documentary depiction of a historical event. How the f*ck is that sci-fi? If you think Apollo 13 is sci-fi then you must think The Right Stuff is sci-fi too? If Apollo 13 is sci-fi then Hillary Swank as Amelia is also sci-fi. As I say, please continue to call anything sci-fi you want. Makes no difference to me. I do not give the slightest shit whether the Academy thinks Gravity is sci-fi. Gravity will win all the Oscars I want it to win even if there are nincompoops who try to insist Gravity is a Greek myth a puppet show or a Harlequin romance.
I admit it Antoinette. Guilty as charged. It’s partly a rear-guard action to keep people from seeing the film as an episode of Star Trek.
But I also genuinely believe Gravity isn’t sci fi. 4 years ago there was another film I was equally enthusiastic about called District 9. I hoped it would get nominations, and cheered when it did. But I would never have told anyone it isn’t sci fi, because it IS sci fi. Aliens are fantastical (as far as we know). The tech (bio-arm-flame-throwing) was fantastical.
So yeah, I’m gonna keep it up. I know it’s not as funny as saying Sandra Bul doesn’t have a lock, but oh well, I never said I wasn’t annoying. 🙂
I love UNDERCOVER BROTHER. 🙂
But dude, don’t put all your thoughts in one post. We’ve got lots of time to kill. 😀 They’re all good tho.
That was to Christopher. I thought I hit the reply button. *facepalm*
[I’ll move your comment up so it will follow what Christopher wrote.]
So much emphasis is put on the various factions and local chapters of the guilds and regional critics and societies of something or other that each stop on the awards circuit now feels like more of a hurdle than, say, 20 years ago.
Perhaps the films that get made each year simply need this rite of passage, this “for your consideration” spanking machine, to get winnowed down among their peers. With that said, the Academy may feel that the wealth will be shared a bit more broadly — this branch ALWAYS picks the period drama; that branch ALWAYS goes for the contrarian art film; etc. — and can afford to stick its mostly draconian rubric for what constitutes an award-winning motion picture.
There are also a lot more movies made (an average of 300-500 were released per year from the 1940s through the 1980s; now there are upwards of 2,000+ produced and premiered). They are of varying quality, of course, and the diagram of what a finished film worthy of a public audience should look like has evolved, in many cases for the better. But this doesn’t necessarily level the playing field for the phalanxes of movies popping up each year, it helps clog the apparatus.
So more often than not, if we go by AMPAS’s standards, we’re left with having to settle on movies that leave the best taste in the mouth, which is often confused with those that left the most recent taste in the mouth. It’s rare to have a year like 1991, when “The Silence of the Lambs” opened 13 months before the Academy Awards ceremony it was eligible for aired. So often, like with the Tony Awards, whatever opened most recently has the “momentum”. Or, like with the Tony Awards, the winning production wants to tell us either a truth that we already know or a falsehood we want to believe in.
It would be fascinating to see a movie like “Gravity” at least seriously considered for a seat at the adults table for some Oscars. Its screenplay is as slender as a Marlboro, but its performances fill in gorgeously concentrated shading and Alfonso Cuaron composed a visceral tone poem onscreen. Do we have to call this movie sci-fi if it will grant “Gravity” a better shot at some awards? Harking back to 1991 again, “Silence” remains the only horror movie to win best picture, and only the third nominated ever. Genre movies seem to get brushed aside and placed on a shelf like tchotchkes rather than displayed as centerpieces. When “Return of the King” won (and won and won), it had the earned yet unsurprising appeal of an Arthur Murray-style correspondence course in dance, where each position is mapped out on the floor.
And since the Academy likes to take into the breadth of filmmakers’ work as well as the depth (or let’s call it what it is: they like to reward people for their body of work rather than for the most recent example of it in contention). This backfires sometimes, like when Eddie Murphy was the actor to beat when “Dreamgirls” was up for its small handful of statuettes. Then came “Norbit” and there went his Oscar. His previous years of pandering were all but forgiven, but releasing a guaranteed turkey mere weeks before the baptismal ceremony whose waters would wash away the sins of his cinematic past was inexcusable. Hopefully they treat “12 Years a Slave” writer John Ridley with an open mind, since he wrote the wonderful “Three Kings”, the abysmal “Red Tails” and the too-good-to-be-true “Undercover Brother”(!).
I am beyond frustrated reading all this stuff. I live in the UK … the biggest cinema going country outside of the USA (for mainstream Hollywood movies) and we have to wait a MONTH for Gravity …… meanwhile Australia, Spain, Netherlands and Germany are all rushing off to see ….. GRAVITY! Pisses me off big time and I just don’t get it. Epic movies that contain serious plot spoilers should just be rolled out at the same time as the rest of the world. I know I am going to love Gravity but I feel like I know exactly what is going to happen and the beautiful element of surprise has gone. I love the Oscar race every year so what do I do ….. abandon great sites like this all year or know the plot and ending of all the films. Damned if I do, damned if I don’t!!!! 🙁
Someone should do a piece on Best Director race. The last American to win this award was Kathryn Bigelow 4 years ago. In the last 20 years there were “only” 10 American winners. This year 2 (3 including Greengrass) top contenders are not American. They do however tell American stories, but so did Hazanavicius, Mendes or Lee in “Brokeback Mountain”. I wonder if the Academy will feel that it’s about time one of their own should win. This could give a slight heads up to David O. Russell to make the cut one more time and who the hell knows… maybe win.
If the academy chooses David O. Russell, I doubt it would be because he’s American, but because of the impression he might be overdue, though he has “only” 3 oscar noms in his name so far: 2 for directing (the Fighter and SLP) and 1 for writing (Silver Linings Playbook). Scorsese had to wait his 8th nomination to finally win an Oscar.
But frankly, I don’t think the Academy cares about the nationality of Oscar winners, a large minority of the Academy is actually foreign-born so nationality doesn’t count very much in the end. Especially not in a year when they could make history by awarding a black director or a mexican director. Even though I believe Saving Mr. Banks could win BP, imo. the BD race will be between McQueen and Cuaron.
And let’s remember I haven’t seen any of those films I’m mentioning!! 🙂
Gravity is great entertainment but it’s science fiction. No one, including Sasha, knows what it will look like in 20 years, or even 5 years. That is why acting or directing awards for science fiction are a hard sell. It’s not like Sigourney Weaver was going to win for Aliens, even though that too was great entertainment in the 1980’s. I don’t know yet if Gravity is Kubrick worthy. It’s fresh now but so what? Selling tickets is not always art.
And yet “Aliens” stood the test of time and is a gripping sci-fi action thriller that is miles above anything that we see in cinemas today. If “Gravity” becomes what “Aliens” is now, almost 30 years after it’s release, I’m cool with that.
Neither Alien nor Aliens are truly science fiction. Alien is a horror film and Aliens is a war movie. Yes, they happen to be set in space and employ science-fiction-esque tropes and hardware. But that’s about it.
So very true.
Gravity is sci-fi because without science there’s no space shuttle.
Driving Miss Daisy is sci-fi because without science.there are no cars.
The Simpsons Movie was the best sci-fi movie ever (it featured a nuclear power plant)
The Hurt Locker is sci fi because they use tech to defuse bombs.
Zero Dark Thirty is sci fi because they have night-vision goggles.
But actually Aliens IS sci fi.
Devon and anyone calling Gravity sci-fi obviously hasn’t read the linked book, nor any book shown on the page e.g. “Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought.” It’s ok, keep sounding ignorant, it’s fun for the rest of us.
http://www.amazon.com/Screening-Space-American-Science-Fiction/dp/081352492X
Sasha, after seeing Nebraska today, I do believe it could be the sleeper no one sees coming. It made me rethink the race in several categories.
The precedent leaves me optimist about the prospects for Cuaron’s masterful script. He has been recognized before by the writers branch in both categories:
Best Original Screenplay – Y TU MAMA TAMBIEN
Best Adapted Screenplay – CHILDREN OF MEN
Since he’s already respected and a known quantity they’re not likely to be fooled by the backlash into underestimating Cuaron’s effort.
personally, I agree that the script is spectacular. Just that I look at piles of turds packed with zingers and wise-cracks that often win screenplay Oscars the past few years and I wonder if some in the Academy knows fuck-all about what makes a screenplay great. I’m counting some in the writer’s branch among those members who need to have greatness bite them in the ass before they see it.
Agreed, #dreamCrusher 🙁
Tho last last year … #jk 🙂
Prisoners is in for a Best Picture nomination, and Gravity better get atleast 11 nominations. And I wont count out a surprise Best Picture nomination, something Indie like Fruitvale Station or Before Midnight, and I’m hoping that Blue Jasmine and The Place Beyond the Pines will get nominated for Best Picture, but I’m not gonna get my hopes up.
Unless I’m forgetting something, I would say 11 nominations — max. Possibly 10 would be more likely, since right now I feel screenplay is iffy.
Best Picture
Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actress – Sandra Bullock
Best Cinematography – Emmanuel Lubezki
Best Editing
Best Art Direction
Best Visual Effects
Best Musical Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Original Screenplay
I see you’re optimist about Art Direction. Hope you’re right!
Just based on visceral eye-candy sensation — austere as Garvity may be, it’s gorgeous.
They’re not very keen on showing some love to anything slightly futuristic or sci-fi in this category. Sure, “Avatar” won a couple of years ago, but if you look further back you’ll only find “Star Wars” in 1977. However I agree the Production Design is brilliant and worthy of any awards, but here it’s safe to go with a movie set in the XIX or the first half of the XX century. They just love that shit.
some noms are “just because”, lots of em, in fact. branch voters like the movie and give it extra credit when they vote.
is G popular….. as in the way people are popular in high school?
If Prisoners kept making good money and made $100 million, I might agree with you. But it won’t sniff that number. It’s not even talked about much anymore by anyone. It’s not gonna make the cut with all these other pics. It had a couple weeks of solid buzz and now…nada. The Butler is kind of the same. When it came out, it shot up the ranks to people’s top two or three to win, now look at updated predictions. Moving down…moving down…moving down…moving down.
But doesnt this year feel like a string of weeks in which one film has all the buzz in the world … And then its gone. ??
That wont happen woth Gravity. But its a lonnnnng way to March.
The Place Beyond the Pines has absolutely no shot at any award from any organization. Mixed reaction and severe issues at the screenplay level despite a few good scenes in the opening third. While I do love Blue Valentine, Cianfrance overreached narratively with Pines in trying to mount an Epic Drama that collapsed by its third act, which was completely uninvolving. Strong start, meandering middle, weak finish. A film can overcome a weak beginning, but it’s hard to shake a poor ending. Felt nothing for any of the characters — it seemed like an exercise in serpentine screenwriting.
Personally I’m neither convinced nor invested in the possibility of GRAVITY winning Best Picture. It could win Best Director, but it’s still a longshot. I just hope that every single element of the film gets acknowledged at some point*. Nominations will do. I mean even if you loved GRAVITY like I did, and it’s got absolutely everything going for it (BO + acclaim from critics and directors) you just know it’s not a Best Picture winner. BP/BD nominations are in the bag, but the win is completely different ballgame. It’d be as shocking to me as learning that CRIES AND WHISPERS won Best Picture in 1974 beating THE STING (as rightful as it was impossible). Just the fact that they were nominated is astonishing –as will be with GRAVITY. If the situation was hopeless back in the 70’s guess for 2013? Not happening folks, so stop tripping.
*Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score, Cinematography, Visual Effects, S. Mixing, S. Editing
The work done in films like GRAVITY usually doesn’t get much respect from the production design branch, but if they were to see the light, a nomination has been earned. Hell, nominate Clooney for all I care, he was that good!
I agree with you BUT there is a big difference in the case of Gravity in 2013: Gravity is both an avant-garde and a mainstream movie. It’s a technical and visual marvel but it is also a director piece in an almost theatrical way (just two actors). It combines some opposites that make
it somehow a perfect BP winner. Plus Gravity has a script that makes it not too much intellectual, not at all arty, and for that reason even more likable. Directors will love this film, It’s a dream for every director! directors are already loving this as well as actors and the support is all there.
Think about The Artist just two years ago: a French black&white silent movie that celebrates hollywood. Plus a script that not for a minute feels pretentious but just simple likable, not too arty or intellectual.
Oh yeah GRAVITY has much more going on for it in terms of Oscar chances, and will win several Oscars for sure. I was just contemplating how both are heartbreaking works or art. Both life affirming at the end. And both so far away from what we think as Best Picture Winners. You could say I was rambling nonsense and I wouldn’t mind either 🙂
the comp to Gravity is LotR. Genre busting, extremely high tech.
Avatar was sunk because no one could bear the dialog. Regular actors mouthing bad dialog.
LotR had some brilliant dialog (based on Tolkien’s internal rhymes) delivered by lots of accomplished thesps.
And, we have Sandra Bullock chattering like a regular person, as she hurdles through a re-birth. Or, Life of Pi with an American star. It’s a very good hand. Pi was #2 last year. It’s likely Warner will play the game better than Fox did with Pi.
*********
Focus deserves much of the blame for BBM’s loss. The studio consistently underperforms Oscar night. Grateful for their wonderful slate, just sayin they get beat a lot.
I actually agree with this. And I (dis)like the film about as much as I like LOTR.
Going through all these comments, I’m surprised people are willing to declare “locks” on anything. Remember this: IT ISN’T OVER UNTIL IT’S OVER.
Some will say that Argo was the bigger crowdpleaser and that when it came down to thousands voting, and not hundreds, that made all the difference.
ARGO won Best Picture on nomination morning when they failed to nominated Ben Affleck for Best Director. We didn’t know it on that day, but it was over.
btw, is AD alternating between two formats for anyone else? Every time I refresh it changes, first the normal version and then a plain version.
Yes, I’ve also been getting the two versions of AD.
Comment contains spoilers.
SPOILERS
SPOILERS
I disagree with people who say that Gravity’s script is ‘thin”. I think it’s a minimalist script that managed to give us exciting sequences and intelligent concepts. Yes, it doesn’t have a lot of dialogue, but the it demonstrates a well thoughtout and purposeful use of symbolism and hidden messages, telling us very profound story of life, death, birth, and rebirth. You only have to look to uncover these treasures. Think about this; what’s the significance of the main character’s daughter’s death, the frog, the image or the orthodox jesus, the buddha, the four elements (fire, water, air, earth), the hurricane brewing on earth, Kowoloski’s reference to the river Ganges as he floats to his death, etc I encourage everyone to do more research after the movie and you’ll be even more amazed by how sophisticated the script is.
SPOILERS END
SPOILERS END
SPOILER
SPOILER
Some of us saw that symbolism and thought it was too much. Especially the part where she came from the sky like the Elohim and crawled out of the ocean the way our reptilian ancestors did.
SPOILERS OVER
Just because we disagree about a film doesn’t mean we didn’t get it or missed something. That movie was full of nudges that felt like a sledgehammer.
SPOILER amphibian ancestors* In fact the whole sequence from the moment the Shenzou lands on the lake to the moment she stands straight could be interpreted to represent from primordial soup to homo sapiens. I guess some of us though it was poetic, emotional, and rapturously beautiful. It’s cool.
primordial soup*
SPOILER
There is this poetic, emotional, and rapturously beautiful aspect and there is the extraordinary ending of an unprecedented visual experience: after 88 minutes of cinema with no gravity I was so accustomed that, like Ryan Stone, I really felt and become aware the gravity force in an almost physical way.
Well, compare it to the two other big space station movies …. 2001 and Tarkovsky’s Solaris. Does it feel like it has anywhere near that level of depth?
Of course …. and that’s why I hated it.
The ending and its symbolism, I mean.
I totally agree with you. The script is minimalist as well as sophisticated. Cuaron is very smart not overwriting here, he finds a perfect balance between the visual experience and the evocative / intellectual details that make the film even greater when you take some time to think back about a scene, a reaction, a line of dialogue… if one does a little research (like you say) then it’s clear Gravity has a precious script to drive its way.
I hope all this “simplicity” backlash doesn’t result in Alfonso Cuaron and Jonas Cuaron being robbed of a Best Original Screenplay nomination.
Guess how many Paddy Chayefsky scripts are there in the Sight&Sound top 100? Yeah, that many.
If I had to bet, in 20 years time, Sandra Bullock’s Dr. Ryan Stone will be spoken in the breath as Moira Shearer’s Vicky Page
At this point, I see 12 YEARS A SLAVE taking everything in sight, SLUMDOG style. GRAVITY will get its share of the technical categories, but in term of majors, it feels more like a nomination as the reward type of thing. And Cuaron could be rewarded if they give the editing Oscar to GRAVITY.
But I see 12YAS taking Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (the field seems shockingly barren at this point, no?), Art Direction, and Costume Design. Actor, Supporting Actress, and Score could also very much be in play.
GRAVITY could take Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Special Effects. That last one is a mortal lock, I think.
Finally, I don’t envision anybody challenging INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS for Original Screenplay, so that’ll be the bone thrown toward the off-center, independent favorite of the year (think LOST IN TRANSLATION, the Coens’ own FARGO, etc.)
Supporting actor seems barren?
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyer’s Club
Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Those four are formidable although at this point I do agree it’s likely between Fassbender and Leto. But I don’t think it’s an all out easy category I guess.
Yes, there’s those 5, but other than a few on the periphery, (Gyllenhaal, Bruhl, Abdi, and, yes, Gandolfini) I can’t think of many other contenders. I feel as if normally there’d be more solid contenders by now.
And my darkhorse nominee for supporting actor is James Gandolfini in Enough Said.
Wanted to get that out there now so I can say ‘told you so’ when it happens.
😉
Isn’t he the lead?
Look at the panel on the side of the page…even Awards Daily has him in the supporting category. He very well may have a role that is big enough to be lead but I can see them pushing supporting since he would have a better chance at a posthumous nod.
Paulina García is amazing in Gloria, Oscar for her!!!
Robyo
Your right Paulina Garcia was amazing I’ve got her in my top ten
Look, there was too much front bum and lengthy snogging for my liking, but yes, she deserves to be in the Top 5 and maybe win. I definitely enjoyed her performance more than Cate’s, Brie’s and far more than Sandra’s. Haven’t seen Sausage Country or Saving Private Banks.
But it is grotesque…
OT #1: Kudos to Woody Allen for not caving in to India’s anti-smoking crusade.
OT #2: Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon wrote that until a year ago, he hadn’t even heard of Franju’s “Eyes Without a Face” and that he just watched it on Blu. How can people run film sites and not at least be aware of essential, influential films (let alone not having already watched them)? I may not always agree with Sasha and Ryan, but they do appear to have done their homework.
Hell, I had no idea Billy Idol was so influential.
That joke is precisely why I put in “Franju’s.” Ha!
NEAR-LOCKS
(= Omission, though clearly possible, would be shocking.)
1. Gravity (Can the Academy overcome their scifilitis ?)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Actually all this Gravity buzz may help it in the long run..)
STRONG CONTENDERS
(= Should make it without a hitch…unless most unseens HIT.)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (They do love the Coens and festival word has been great.)
4. Captain Phillips (Big studio pic so raves won’t be enough, has to make money, too.)
5. Nebraska (Clearly not as flashy as the competition, still Payne’s best.)
6. Philomena (British crowdpleaser with Dench, Frears and Weinstein.)
ACTORS BRANCH
(= The most dominant Academy branch CAN overrule critics.)
7. The Butler (Like they could say no to an Oprah/Harvey push.)
8. August (Like they could say no to Streep-Roberts-Clooney-Weinstein.)
9. Dallas Buyers Club (IF it gets traction in three acting categories.)
10. Prisoners (Fading quickly, could Actors put it back on the map ?)
MOST PROMISING UNSEENS
(= Potential late entry emerging as the one to beat.)
11. Saving Mr. Banks (It does seem to have it all but…does it really ?)
12. Her (IMO the one to watch out for…official word on Saturday !)
13. The Wolf of Wall Street (The 2014 rumors don’t really fly.)
14. American Hustle (I’m not buying all the hype. Not yet anyway.)
15. The Monuments Men (If it is half-decent, it will be in consideration.)
PROBABLY TOO INDIE
(=Sure, a few can always make it…but this isn’t the 70s anymore.)
16. Blue Jasmine (Could it be REALLY all about Blanchett ?)
17. Before Midnight (They can honor the core trio in adapted screenplay.)
18. Fruitvale Station (Fading buzz, still Harvey could turn that around.)
19. Mud (First screeners have decent track record.)
THE WILD CARD
(= A surprising late entry possibly with all the goods.)
20. The Book Thief (Promising early word, heartfelt prestige pic, big studio, esteemed cast, beloved source material, Oscar-friendly release date…how it had managed to fly under the radar for so long, is beyond me.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Labor Day (IF critics warm up to it…or the Academy does Reader-style.)
All is Lost (Other survival tales already seem to have the edge.)
Rush (Well-received film, disappointing BO. Cinderella Man all over again.)
The Place Beyond the Pines (The early release date probably sealed its fate.)
What Maisie Knew (Ditto.)
Stories We Tell (Fortunately it IS eligible in Best Documentary.)
The Spectacular Now (Could the Academy finally embrace a teen drama ?)
The Way Way Back (On paper viable contender on every level. Will it add up ?)
Short Term 12 (It will come down to campaign money and critics groups.)
Blue is the Warmest Color (Young-skewing, controversial foreign language film. Three things the Academy rarely embraces separately but all in one film ? It would be basically unprecedented.)
My guess is that in the end unseens will knock out at least a few from the middle. Which unseens will knock out which ‘filler players’ that I don’t know. For what it’s worth, I think Saving Mr. Banks AND Her will be the big surprises of the season.
Finally, someone else mentions The Book Thief. I mostly believe that it won’t register in the Awards race since no one seems to think it will, but doggonnit, on paper it looks like it has nearly everything going for it and after it got moved up from 2014 to 2013, I figured it’s probably pretty good.
Now elsewhere people refer to Hitchcock, and it’s true, that was a disappointment, but it did generate a nomination or two for Helen Mirren in some majorish awards. But I still think The Book Thief has such a strong pedigree, I would be surprised that it fell completely flat.
Meh. Book Thief looks ok. That voiceover in the trailer sounds extremely ‘Hallmark Hall of Fame’ bad.
I am throwing in the towel on The Counselor and Out of the Furnace soon I’m afraid. Haven’t heard anything about either of them (other than in the new tv spots they say ‘Rolling Stone raves expects the unexpected’ for Counselor).
The mediocre/horrible trailer threw me off, too, but according to early word from the world premiere at Mill Valley Festival last weekend, it IS good…maybe even great. Which would make sense considering a big studio (Fox) gave it a coveted year-end release date (November 8) and obviously that’s not something big studios do for films like this (indiesque period drama lacking star power) unless they have great confidence it has sleeper hit and probably even Oscar potential.
Phantom
Glad to see you even think Short term 12 could have a shot at a bp nom I think its more than a long shot but that’s me
David, let’s get real for a second, when did I EVER claim it didn’t have a shot ? It does…a long shot.
“Can the Academy overcome their scifilitis ?”
If Gravity, ah, goes down, it will be less scifilitis than horrorlitis. Gravity plays far more like horror than sci fi (granted the genres have a lot of crossover). Fear of the unknown, survival as the goal, blackness waiting around every corner…
Not that Gravity really needs to be part of any genre. But if you sit back on the day after the Oscars and go, “see, genre bias” you may as well know which genre it was.
Sci fi = fantastical or futuristic. It’s in the Saturn Awards damn by laws. If Gravity is sci fi, so is The Hurt Locker and Hugo and Life of Pi. Science + fiction /= science fiction
I don’t think Academy voters will work that hard to define the genre, they won’t look it up in the dictionary. It is set in space, for all they care, it will be a sci-fi.
They usually have no trouble underappreciating a well-reviewed moneymaker like Inception or Deathly Hallows Part II (also from WB), but this time what may differentiate Gravity from those is the UNANIMOUS critical praise, that combined with the Box Office and two of their favorite stars willing to campaign, could just make all the difference in the end.
Having said that, if Bullock doesn’t make the cut in Best Actress for whatever reason (TBL-backlash, crowded field, not textbook Oscary part etc.), Gravity is doomed…then again if she could convince Academy voters to vote for her VICTORY for The Blind Side (!), no reason the expect her not to be able to convince them about at least a NOMINATION for the exponentially superior Gravity.
TBS
Phantom – Interesting point – you feel if Bullock misses the BA 5 then Gravity is “doomed”?
I guess you just mean that in such a scenario, it won’t win BP – not that it won’t win Art Direction or anything else?
I don’t see it that way. Gravity could benefit from a backlash just as Argo did (in BD). But I don’t think Gravity will win anyway, just because it will be competing with biopics/history that the Academy like to eat up with a space-shuttle-size spoon.
Yes, basically. I mean that for Gravity missing the lead actress nod would result the same kind of ‘doom’ Bigelow’s omission meant for Zero Dark Thirty…still a BP nominee, only no longer a viable contender for the win. How could they consider seriously for BP a one-(wo)man show if they didn’t consider that one woman even top5 worthy ?
Then again, with smart campaigning, a major omission like Bullock’s would be, can be turned around like Affleck’s in BD last year and could secure the BP win in the end. But I think the former scenario is more likely and more accurate of a comparison considering the strong female leads in both films.
I was told in the distant past of my school years that science fiction meant a fictional work that was based on current scientific theory. So that would mean APOLLO 13, GRAVITY and any other “space movie” would quality. I always thought the TV show LOST was Sci-Fi but it didn’t have aliens or futuristic stuff. If we have different definitions or if it changed that’s fine.
But you’re saying GRAVITY wasn’t futuristic. I kinda got the impression it was actually set in the future. Not the distant future but something made me think it wasn’t present day. I wish I could remember what specifically.
If Gravity was set in the future, even a week from now in the future, there would be no space shuttle, because the space shuttle program is no more. The space shuttle is deceased, moribund, expired, it has ceased to be, bereft of life, it rests in peace.
I believe I read that the Cuarons were taken by surprise when a major part of their premise was mothballed after they were already committed to it.
So, if anything, Gravity takes place in an alternate “what if?” path of the recent past.
Maybe that was it. Maybe I was thinking they had a new program or started it up again. Anyway it was something they said in their conversation before things started to go wrong.
We’re asking the wrong questions. It’s not the “sci-fi” classification that Academy voters have a bias against. It’s the futuristic, fantastical elements that you commonly see in “sci-fi” movies. That’s what turns off voters. My dad hates movies with robots because he thinks they exaggerate our technological capabilities. My bro hates movies with magic because “if he could use that spell in this scene, why couldn’t he use that spell in the earlier scene?”
So the question isn’t whether or not Academy voters classify Gravity as “sci-fi”. The question is whether or not they’ll see any of these futuristic, fantastical elements in the movie. And the answer is no.
“if he could use that spell in this scene, why couldn’t he use that spell in the earlier scene?”
That occured to me several times while reading Harry Potter, but I still enjoyed it tremendously and would’ve voted for the last film to represent the series at the Oscars. After all, most realistic films also present inconsistencies in their plots and characters, and numerous factual errors, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not worthy achievements, though it can threaten one’s suspension of disbelief, if narrative flaws become too obvious.
+1
“Lost” had fantastical elements. If it didn’t, no one would have called it sci fi.
Genre is meant to be fungible, so one level, the discussion doesn’t matter. On the other hand, some of the best received films transcend or radically remake genre – 2001, Jaws, The Silence of the Lambs, Lord of the Rings, Avatar, Life of Pi…even Aliens is horror-sci-fi-action. I think for enthusiasts like me, the kiss of death is for Gravity to be seen as “only” sci-fi, like Star Trek or something. It’s more. So I may keep having these silly angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin arguments. Dammit, I’m getting annoying again.
Thanks Phantom for not believing the hype of a movie that is still unseen- American Hustle. I just don’t get the high ranked predictions, especially for Amy Adams- who I just can’t see as a formidable candidate for the win. She is very uneven, and she is going up against 5 or 6 other contenders who are actually the prime focus of their film. American Hustle looks like an ensemble.
I also agree with August: Osage County, can’t count out a movie that Weinstein and Co. are still editing after the average response it received at TIFF. Most of all, who can count out a movie that is headlined by the former queen of Hollywood, Julia Roberts and arguably the greatest Actress of all time, Meryl Streep?
American Hustle is the conjuction of three very vocal and rather pushy fan bases: the JLaw fan base, the Amy Adams fan base and the David O. Russell fan base (there’s also a Bradley Cooper fan base but its members are either less numerous or more civilized or less interested in the Oscar race), so however good or bad the movie ends up being, they’ll campaign the hell out of it and ridicule all other contenders and their supporters. And apparently actors love O. Russell and his films, and since they’re by far the largest Academy branch (roughly 20% of its membership), it gives American Hustle a good boost in the race.
Amy Adams should carry American Hustle to have a shot at lead and since it is ensemble my guess is she won’t make it there BUT could emerge as a strong late entry in supporting for Her.
Yes, despite lukewarm early word, August has four Academy darlings (Streep, Roberts, Clooney, Weinstein) going for it, all four had convinced the Academy to embrace mediocre films before, so no reason to assume they couldn’t do the same now that they are campaigning for the same movie.
It’s kind of funny to think of the flurry of articles and praise for “The Butler” not so long ago. Now? It goes unmentioned in this article until a mediocre spot on the ranking list at the end. Heh.
I agree. By the end of the year it COULD be somewhat forgotten besides Oprah and a best pic nom.
Well two weeks ago, looked like PRISONERS had it sewn up amongst the people. Maybe next week everyone will be about CAPTAIN PHILLIPS. This year it seems like Oscar watchers are more fickle than usual.
12 YEARS A SLAVE is at NYFF tonight, right? Let’s see what happens in the morning.
Last year it was basically a weekly thing. Late August The Master (kind of) dominated Venice making us all think it might just do the same at the Oscars, then what, a week later Argo took Telluride by storm, only to lose momentum (clearly only temporarily) to Silver Linings Playbook that WPd (and won big) at Toronto, then a few weeks later Lincoln and Life of Pi met or even exceeded already sky-high expectations at the New York Film Fest, only to be brought down by Zero Dark Thirty that received unanimous praise and (at first) unanimous support from critics groups. We were around late November when word arrived that Les Misérables had been a smash at its first screenings and suddenly – but only for a few ‘seconds’ – we all thought that was finally the end of the cavalcade, but then critics changed the game twice : first when the groups ate up the ZD30 controversy and started lining behind the similar (though arguably inferior) Argo and second when the unexpectedly mixed LesMis reviews started pouring in.
So after a season that saw 7 (!) temporary, presumed BP frontrunners, the Academy went back to Argo (though failed to nominate it in Director), pretty much ignored ZD30 (not even a nod for Bigelow) and Lincoln (2/12, neither for Kushner’s epic script), gave Ang Lee his second BD Oscar without the BP trophy and crowned Jennifer Lawrence prom queen of the night instead of creating a career-crowning moment for Emmanuelle Riva or honoring an exceptionally talented actress playing an iconic, cult-bound part (Chastain) or recognizing Naomi Watts who has been for the past decade, quite simply one of the best.
This year seems more balanced. Gravity has stayed damn strong since Venice (that also premiered potential Oscar sleeper hit Philomena), even though Telluride-WP 12 years a slave seemingly emerged as the early frontrunner, and though others have come (Prisoners, Before Midnight, Fruitvale Station) and gone (The Fifth Estate, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Diana), even in mid-October it does feel like we ‘only’ have two potential frontrunners already seen…so I guess the question remains : will this be a 12/Gravity race or will the unseens )or at least one) stir up the pot in the coming weeks ? And if so, WHICH unseen ?
That’s sort of the main reason we update the site every day. We talk about the race as the reality of the race exists in the current moment. Then we adjust and recalibrate as the reality shifts day to day. You know what’s funnier that seeing a film get overshadowed? Imagining and trumpeting a film is going to be a big deal and then, embarassingly, it’s not. We do not do that. But other well-known Oscar sites will tell you All the King’s Men or The Great Debaters are frontrunners. They will feature Dreamgirls as a fair accomplit in April. We dont play guessing games like that. We wait to see a movie before we fall in love with it, and we’re not ashamed to proclaim our love for any movie that we have a crush on as soon as we feel it touch us.
Obviously the biggest faux pas is to over-hype a film before it comes out. But, it’s also a faux pas (granted, a smaller one) to over-hype a film after it’s released. “The Butler” was a Honda. It wasn’t a Yugo, but don’t tell me it’s a Rolls. It could’ve been in contention for BP, only if the rest of the year just churned out more Hondas and Yugos.
The Butler is still in the running for a BP nomination.
Its not hype or overhype to talk with enthusiasm about something you admire.
I think of hype as praise before there’s any basis for praise. I love my cat 1000 times more than you do. Maybe you think I’m overhyping my cat. You’d be wrong 🙂
I’ve seen a picture of your cat. How sure are you that you love it more? Have you checked on the cat? (This typing might be coming from inside your house.)
🙂
Does ‘the fifth estate’ even have a chance for a bp nomination?
I’m scared for Captain Phillips. Critics don’t seem to embrace it the way I expected and though that could change (right now in the respectable Prisoners/Rush range on MC), the wildly overperforming Gravity may hurt it at the Box Office, too…and unless a damn good campaign happens, it should pull off either stellar critical consensus (80+ MC) or stellar Box Office (100M-ish) the very least to be a top5 BP/BD contender in the end.
P.S. I agree with most of Sasha’s rankings, except All is Lost, Labor Day, Rush, The Fifth Estate, Blue is the Warmest Color. I don’t think those are top20 material Oscar-wise (quality-wise is another story, loved Rush, All is Lost and Blue).
Excellent, the raves arrived, the stellar final critical consensus is on the way (80+ MC), now it only has to survive Gravity at the Box Office, and it will be officially a damn strong Picture/DirectorActor contender.
Clooney + Bullock + Cameron (best Film in space and Bullock great job) + Fincher + Inarritu + Del Toro + (a lot of other directors astonished by this miraculous achievement in film directing) + 98 metacritic + Box Office + GRAVITY IS REALLY A MASTERPIECE = Cuaron will win DGA and the Oscar for BD.
BD can easily push this great great film to win BP.
That is the state of the race that makes this year very simple.
That is my opinion, I can be proven wrong during next months but I don’t think so.
1 – 12 Years A Slave
2 – Gravity
3 – Inside Llewyn Davis
4 – American Hustle
5 – Saving Mr. Banks
6 – Nebraska
7 – Dallas Buyer’s Club
8 – Monument’s Men
9 – August: Osage County
10 – The Butler
*If Wolf of Wall Street comes out it will be in here somewhere.
I just am NOT feeling The Butler hovering anywhere NEAR the top 5 when all is said and done. It will very likely be nominated but won’t shock me one bit if it’s not.
And I know that Nebraska is supposedly a truly great movie but I don’t see it being a real threat to WIN best picture.
And how are you leaving out August: Osage County in all of this?? There is no way it’s not at LEAST in the conversation with that cast.
Sasha,
I think you are over underestimating August: Osage County chances. Please… we all know that a Harvey-produced-film with a huge cast has a much bigger chance of a nomination than Blue is the Warmest Colour, The Fifth Estate and Before Midnight.
BP is down to 12YAS, Gravity and the unseen American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks. There will be other nominees and this last two could flop totally.
I’m sorry, but it says very clearly in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences rules and regulations that any film in which the lead actor or actress shouts out the same vocal distress call more than 20 times is automatically disqualified from Best Picture consideration. As Sandra Bullock says “aahh!” and “no!” well over 30 times (and probably closer to 40 or 50 times), I’m afraid that pretty much shuts down the “Gravity” Best Picture bandwagon.
I am becoming famous at work for doing my Sandra Bullock impression. I merely twirl with my arms out, saying “ahhh” and “ohhh” while bumping into walls and tables. People love it.
Robert A’s new Best Actress rankings:
– Blanchett
– Bullock
– Rufussondheim
– Dench
– Streep
+1 Ha! I used to channel her (in Speed) when I drive
When she was doing that panicky thing she does in GRAVITY, I was that close to shouting in the theater:
‘There was no baby…It’s just caaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnns!!!’
LOL! I think that criteria is what eliminated Transformers from consideration.
What really irks me is that people keep saying that this can’t possibly be sci-fi because it’s modern day and there’s no aliens. When they believe this, they start pointing out the inaccuracies and the sort. However, those “inaccuracies” (IE China and the ISS not being that close to each other, Sandra Bullock randomly pushing buttons to get the escape pod to release, et. al), feed into the idea that this film is a sci-fi movie.
Mr. E – Is Apollo 13 a sci fi movie?
There are two well-established roads for a film like Gravity.
One is the game-changing effects-driven technical-wow-wow-wow that gets a special Oscar (check) and some technicals, but not a BP nod. The poster boys are:
2001: A Space Odyssey
The Matrix
Two is One plus juice for the director and a BP nod. These films are similar to #1 but also effusively praised for how their directors corralled a crew of 100s into so much artistic vision. They compete with other BP nominees right up until the last minute, and they win something or other, but somehow, they don’t win BP. Examples:
Star Wars
Apollo 13
Avatar
Hugo
Life of Pi
I loved Gravity so it pains me to say this, but I don’t really see a precedent for its win. What am I missing?
The difference is simple to name: Sandra Bullock. Even if she doesn’t manage to win and is “only” nominated, it would just be the second (!) sci-fi/space/whatever-role in a LEADING category after Sigourney Weaver in “Aliens”.
I know, it’s a long a race till march – but if it’s really coming down to TYAS and Gravity (like many pundits now calling it), we all have to look at the Screen Actor Awards. And when there Sandra Bullock can manage her second win, it would proof the actors really like the movie and that it could really make history at the Academy Awards. Just my opinion.
Did someone say Cuaron would be ROBBED of a screenplay nomination? What utter crap.
I enjoyed the film too but when you look at the competition: Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, Mud, Before Midnight, Enough Said, Inside Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr. Banks and then likely both Her and American Hustle – it does not deserve to be in that group. It is banal, cliche, full of ridiculous artificial tropes, a shoehorned corny backstory and trite dialogue.
The screenplay isn’t good.
If I could give a standing ovation though a comment I would. Well said. Well stated.
Gravity certainly deserves to be among that group. For every supposed cliche you find, I can find ten more unique, fresh ideas. The screenplay may seem “thin”, but in fact, every action and every line serves multiple purposes.
For example, “Houston in the blind” reinforces the realism of the film since it’s actual jargon used by astronauts. But “Houston in the blind” also reinforces the spiritual undertones of praying to someone who does not answer back.
Ooohhh……how deep….
Again, I link you to this:
http://badassdigest.com/2013/10/07/a-short-note-on-the-simplicity-of-gravity/
Clooney. He’s the ultimate campaigner.
Should we make a list of all the Best Picture winners which are inferior to GRAVITY in every single cinematic department, including fundamentals like acting and storytelling? GRAVITY is a landmark, a mammoth achievement of the cinema, it’s not a “technical wonder”. Go back to school and take “Film Appreciation 101” –if that class even exists. Anyways, back to the list, let me pitch in the first 10:
CRASH
THE ARTIST
GHANDI
BEN-HUR
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
OUT OF AFRICA
THE ENGLISH PATIENT
MARTY
ARGO
DANCES WITH WOLVES
Marty is great. Ben-Hur is even better.
There is a chariot race in Ben-Hur that many believe ranks as one of the best action sequences ever. Robert L. Surtees photographed the film and is usually cited as a visionary cinematographer – you should check out his other work!
And then there is the director William Wyler. He rarely whiffs on a film, and he sure didn’t here. Wyler typically lets his players shine, no matter how large the cast. He’s able to elicit sincere performances that are grounded in reality. Check out what he has been able to do over the years with the likes of Fredric March, Barbra Streisand, Audrey Hepburn, Walter Huston, Olivia de Havilland and Bette Davis, to name just a few. Have you ever heard of The Best Years of Our Lives? William Wyler directed it! You should check it out.
Didn’t say they were terrible though a few are (e.g. THE ENGLISH PATIENT, OUT OF AFRICA).
THE COLLECTOR is a great film by William Wyler
Me adores Ben-Hur! It’s up there among my Top 5 favorite films of all-time in alphabetical order: 2001: A Space Odyssey, Ben-Hur, Gone With The Wind, Mary Poppins and Titanic. Yes, I love long, epic and if possible sentimental films, and I couldn’t care less what people think!
I haven’t seen Gravity, but Gandhi, A Beautiful Mind, and The Artist have fantastic performances in them.
And The English Patient terrible? Really? Not on this planet.
you’ve probably lost your mind ranking English Patient as a bad film, it’s one of the lusciously sweeping love story of all time. It doesn’t make difference if you didn’t like it.
It’s the Academy of Arts and Sciences – that second part is always forgotten come Best Picture time. Gravity is the best film I’ve seen this year by all measures.
“10. Rush 11. Blue Jasmine”
Surprised to see Rush fare better than the superior Blue Jasmine on Sasha’s prediction/rankings list for the time being. I, however, can’t see the eligible voters prefer it to Blue Jasmine. [Both seen, properly; Blue Jasmine, however, is set to be playing citywide (nationwide) to the gen public tomorrow (today: Oct. 9)]
Just done checking the critical mass’s reviews for Gravity. Holy la shite! The average is A.
Speaking for myself, on the last day of the screening here I am going to see it myself BUT for now it should be (just) a solid fun with great special effects and good direction. Fingers crossed re Ms. Bullock, for the time being. (Plus, I’m not a hater, but I am sort of torn between the fact that she’s already won from her oh-sooo-wooonderful performance in The Blind Side and the notion that she seems to have a good chance to garner another one…. Ladies and Gentleman, Ms. Sandra Bullock 1, Ms. Annette Bening 0 (Ms. Jessica Chastain 0 as well; but I’m also glad for J-Law)). [Sorry for blabbering]
And how the heck is Labor Day above Blue Jasmine? Labor Day?????
JoeS, did you really just compare Gravity to Dark Star? Wow, and I say that as someone who loves Dark Star.
Also, all those movies are sausagefests and team sausagefests at that, not about a singular internal journey … maybe 2001, but it’s about so much more than that.
It is unlike any other in my mind, and not just because of the technical mastery that even Cameron praised, Cameron, who wanted to actually shoot a movie in space. All that technology in service of a singular, emotional story that really comes down to one woman’s performance. In other words, “unlike any other.”
YES, I am comparing some of DARK STAR with GRAVITY. I don’t judge a movie based on its budget and resources. Is there any question that ANOTHER EARTH or R.I.P.D. are better made than DARK STAR?
As to “All that technology in service of a singular, emotional story that really comes down to one woman’s performance. In other words, “unlike any other.”
CONTACT. Jodie Foster.
I wasn’t referring to Dark Star’s budget. It’s just a completely different kind of movie. I’m a huge Carpenter fan but he wasn’t even TRYING to make a movie like Gravity.
And with Contact, number one, she’s not solo throughout the movie. Better examples would be An Angel At My Table or something like Moon (though it was a man). You just make that comparison because it’s two women and both movies have to do with Space. Contact is, number one, not a very good movie, and number two, has a huge cast and lots of moving parts. Not so with Gravity. One performance. About one personal journey.
I disagree on both counts.
On DARK STAR, I was referring to the final sequence vs the opening sequence of GRAVITY (right down to the country music). Not the whole movie, just some overlap. But, I strongly disagree with the idea of just dismissing DARK STAR as some runty little low budget movie – it’s better than GRAVITY. Yes, I said it.
On CONTACT, sure, there are other characters, but, it is her personal journey that drives the story and the emotion of the piece. If you are going to go to the extreme that there can only be one main character in a movie, then your comparisons are going to be limited to stuff like CASTAWAY, ROBINSON CRUSOE etc.
I agree with this person about DARK STAR being underrated and a pretty damn good movie, but it’s not better than GRAVITY by a longshot. That’s it.
Here’s how I think its going to go including 2 sleepers I think will get in:
1.12 years of slave
2.gravity
3.american hustle
4.prisoners
5.captain Philips
6.inside Llewyn Davis
7.the Butler
8.rush
9.Blue is The Warmest Color
10.Short Term 12
That’s what I think whether you agree or not!!!!!!!
“Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, a film so unlike any other it cannot help but present itself as a viable Best Picture contender.”
“So unlike any other” – unless you’ve seen APOLLO 13, MAROONED, DARK STAR, 2001 etc etc.
Yes, it’s a great technical achievement, but so were 2001, JURASSIC PARK and AVATAR in their day. Best Picture isn’t “best made”.
I like GRAVITY quite a bit, but the plot and script are as thin as wallpaper – ‘weightless’ one might quip.
I disagree.
Dude, just read this:
http://badassdigest.com/2013/10/07/a-short-note-on-the-simplicity-of-gravity/
http://video.msnbc.msn.com/all-in-/53213364#53213364
Assuming the link works, this is the video from last night’s All In with Chris Hayes where he interviews John Ridley, the screenwriter from 12 Years a Slave. It’s very interesting.
Good clip. Manages to cover a lot in just 6 minutes.
The subtext is very clear. This movie is an event that cannot and will not be ignored. I know that last year Lincoln got some good press in the news media, but not this enthusiastic.
Labor Day and The Fifth Estate at number 8 and 12 respectively? I would rank them both considerably lower or maybe not consider them at all…
With Gravity shaping up to be quite the anticipated phenomenon (and then some) hopefully we have a close race at hand. 12 Years has the significance factor on its side, which is a stronger factor than cutting edge filmmaking/technology. I still think both films however will suffer some form of backlash eventually, maybe Nebraska or Inside Llewyn Davis can capitalize because they are more plain likable? Maybe The Butler will have a second wind come January?
No, really, its going to be Gravity or 12 Years…(unless Jonze absolutely kills it with Her, which he just might…ok, I’m dreaming now…)
You can feel the backlash towards Gravity in its beginning stages.
It’s the angry minority. The same people who wouldn’t have minded at all had Gravity received one or two pans from major critics. But it didn’t. And now the naysayers think that their opinion ought to be heard, as if a film that received widespread critical acclaim needs to be brought down to the same level as all the other mediocre tripe in American cinemas. People who feel insecure in their contrarian opinions and need to broadcast them, to be seen and heard to be disagreeing with the crowd. It pisses me off that fools like that can have such a profound impact on a film’s awards chances.
The same thing happens for every film that threatens to upset the status quo. It happened for Beasts of the Southern Wild last year, markedly. It’ll never happen for a film like Argo, though, because I think people just assume that the backlash is inherent in a middlebrow crowd-pleaser like that.
So many great films this year, I hardly feel like taking sides, especially not against Gravity. The only film I would object to is American Hustle. The only viable reason to give David O. Russell an Oscar is if he promises to never make films again!
Also, have you seen these alternative “art” posters for Gravity:
http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2013/10/8/curio-capturing-gravity.html
It’s nowhere near as good as the Philomena masterpiece, but the last one is quite trippy, the 1st three aren’t too shabby either!
I like the David O. Russell includes women in his pictures, often giving more than one actress a sizeable/interesting role and having them interact.
Not many directors do that anymore.
That’s a good point! I’m just hating on him bc I’m tired of seeing him in the Oscar race EVERY year for films that are apparently pleasant to many but not necessarily that remarkable (at least imo.).
Is he? I feel like only Clooney is in the race every year.
You’re right! I’m also tired of seeing Clooney at the Oscars every year (and I won’t even complain about Meryl since by now she’s become part of the Dolby theater’s furniture). But for once I’m actually looking forward to George’s new film, despite the lame jokes in the trailer (who am I to call a joke lame, really?), it sounds really fun, and ironically it’s the one Clooney film that might not make it to the Oscars in any above-the-line category (unless downplaying expectations is a ruse to come back in force).
Regarding backlash and an angry minority … i think thats quite correct.
The Joe Schmo movie goers are loving this. Theres a security guard at my job who is your typical Friday night movie goer Joe Schmo whomthought it was fantastic. I nelieve he is part of the majority.
TYAS = Lincoln
Gravity = Pi
Captain Phillips = ZD30
American Hustle = D.O.R. slot
The Monuments Men = Clooney + WW2 slot
Blue Jasmine = Woody Allen slot (only open for the good ones)
Inside Llewyn Davis = Coen Brothers slot
The Great Gatsby or Walter Mitty = hot mess slot (see Les Mis)
Insert your favorite obscure indie for the Beasts/Amour slot(s)!
And last but not least: Saving Mr. Banks = Argo = The Artist = The King’s Speech!!!
Oops! Forgot Lee Daniels’ The Butler, another strong contender for the hot mess slot… And of course if The Wolf of Wall Street is released this year, the Scorsese slot will take precedence over one of the weaker slots.
Please stop saying 12 years a Slave is equal to Lincoln.
It’s clearly not.
Have you seen it?
no, but I’ve read the book and seen both McQueen films. I can confidently say it’s nothing like Lincoln.
I agree – I don’t get the comparisons. Each year is different, as are the films.
There are nevertheless striking similarities, patterns of voting and recurring situations in the race from one year to another that deserve to be pointed out and compared. Beyond dealing with slavery, 12YAS exudes an air of seriousness and importance (like Lincoln), but its emotional impact and a more engaging narrative (black slave trying to survive and escape a southern plantation vs. Boring white men discussing slavery in Washington) will definitely play in the favor of 12YAS. Now the question is: will it be crowd-pleasing enough to sway the Academy from quiet reverence to Oscar love? If the Tiff Audience award is any indication, it seems it could be.
That’s just one film and though I don’t have time right now I could go further looking at similarities and differences for each film I’ve mentioned. And as for the directors’ slots it’s pretty clear the Academy has its favorites and votes them back in the BP fold almost every time they have a new film.
I think there will be one or 2 surprises in the best picture nominations ones that are not in Sasha’s rankings