David Poland, over at Movie City News, has divided up the predictions into “seen” and “unseen.” I know, shocker. What, predicting movies people have actually seen? Gravity lands on top for the second time since the Gurus began. It appears, at this stage of the Oscar race, to be down to Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave. They couldn’t be more different. The only similarity they share is both directors are not American. The reason for the enthusiasm for Gravity, btw, is that people keep reporting on how Academy members “loved” Gravity. Gurus of Gold is here.
Thing about Gurus of Gold is that, for the most part, you can bet dollars to donuts that the winner is on either of these two charts. The odds are usually, since 2004, that the film will have been seen already. If there is a sea change in how Best Picture is won, the winner will be among those that haven’t been seen. Things like this never seem possible until they happen. There is still enough time for another movie to catch fire and win the whole thing. Here’s the trick: whatever it is it has to be better than Gravity or 12 Years a Slave. If any other movie moves ahead of those two, whether it’s seen or not, it will be because it is the general audience crowdpleaser or because the voters want to recognize a beloved, unrewarded director (like Alexander Payne or David O. Russell or even George Clooney).
Full charts after the cut.