Since we did the Gurus of Gold update, here’s a look at how Gold Derby’s charts are lining up. And who’s picking what at this early stage. The main difference between the two sites this time is that Gold Derby includes predictions for films that have not been seen yet (American Hustle and Wolf of Wall Street, primarily). This time, Gurus of Gold divided up their picks between seen and not yet seen.
You’re really only dealing with perception and predictions at this point, not with any kind of tangible reality; it could all change so fast. With that said, here are the Best Picture charts. This is the first rows – the subsequent rows, after the cut.
12 Years a Slave wins everything … the race is already over … we should probably get started on next year ….
Masterhilton’s predictions are pretty spot-on. I think he’s going to be very close indeed as far as the final outcome.
Of the films that’s currently in release, my picks are:
1. Captain Phillips
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. The Butler
4. Fruitvale Station
5. Gravity
That’s an incredibly diverse group of critics! Wow, are things really that bad in the world of film criticism? Sad…
I really hope Inside Llewyn Davis gets nominated for best picture but I’m unsure how the Academy will react to it. Same about Her, which I thought was wonderful.
I am curious about American Hustle, whether it will live up to the hype.
I also wonder if Philomena will strike an emotional chord with the Academy. It played very well at Toronto.
I liked Labor Day when I saw it at Toronto but I think others had a mixed reaction. I do hope it finds an audience around the holidays.
I admit the two movies I want to see most which I haven’t seen yet are The Wolf of Wall Street and Saving Mr. Banks, mostly because of Emma.
Here’s my 10 best picture predictions:
,12 years a slave
2.Gravity
3.Captain Philips
4.Wolf of Wall Street
5.prisoners
6.inside Llewyn Davis
7.American Hustle
8.Her
9.Blue is the warmest color
10.Short Term 12
Best Actress
1.Brie Larson ‘Short Term 12’
2.Cate Blanchett ‘Blue Jasmine’
3.Judi Dench ‘Philomena’
Emma Thompson ‘Saving Mr.Banks’
Amy Adams ‘American Hustle’
86th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINATIONS & WINNERS PREDICTION
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bruce Dern – Nebraska {“Woody Grant”}
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave {“Solomon Northup”}
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips {“Captain Richard Phillips”}
*Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club {“Ron Woodroof”}
Robert Redford – All is Lost {“Our Man”}
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips {“Muse”}
Daniel Bruhl – Rush {“Niki Lauda”}
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle {“Richie DiMaso”}
*Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave {“Edwin Epps”}
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club {“Rayon”}
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
*Amy Adams – American Hustle {“Sydney Prosser”}
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine {“Jasmine”}
Sandra Bullock – Gravity {“Ryan Stone”}
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County {“Violet Weston”}
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks {“P.L. Travers”}
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle {“Rosalyn Rosenfeld”}
*Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave {“Patsey”}
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County {“Barbara Weston”}
June Squibb – Nebraska {“Kate Grant”}
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler {“Gloria Gaines”}
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
*The Croods – Kirk De Micco and Chris Sanders
Despicable Me 2 – Pierre Coffin and Chris Renaud
Frozen – Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee
Monsters University – Dan Scanlon
The Wind Rises – Hayao Miyazaki
CINEMATOGRAPHY
12 Years a Slave – Sean Bobbit
Captain Phillips – Barry Ackroyd
*Gravity – Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis – Bruno Delbonnel
The Wolf of Wall Street – Rodrigo Prieto
COSTUME DESIGN
12 Years a Slave – Patricia Norris
The Great Gatsby – Catherine Martin
Inside Llewyn Davis – Mary Zophres
Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Ruth E. Carter
*The Wolf of Wall Street – Sandy Powell
DIRECTING
12 Years a Slave – Steve McQueen
American Hustle – David O. Russell
Captain Phillips – Paul Greengrass
*Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese
DOCUMENTARY (Feature)
The Act of Killing – Joshua Oppenheimer
*Blackfish – Gabriela Cowperthwaite
Stories We Tell – Sarah Polley
The Unknown Known – Errol Morris
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks – Alex Gibney
DOCUMENTARY (Short Subject)
CaveDigger – Jeffrey Karoff
Jujitsu-ing Reality – Chetin Chabuk
Karama Has No Walls – Sara Ishaq
*The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life – Malcolm Clarke
Recollections – Nathanael Carton
FILM EDITING
12 Years a Slave – Joe Walker
American Hustle – Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
Captain Phillips – Christopher Rouse
Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Singer
*The Wolf of Wall Street – Thelma Schoonmaker
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown – Belgium
Gloria – Chile
The Hunt – Denmark
*The Past – Iran
Wadjda – Saudi Arabia
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
*The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Candace Neal and Beverly Jo Pryor
Star Trek Into Darkness – David LeRoy Anderson and Mary L. Mastro
MUSIC (Original Score)
12 Years a Slave – Hans Zimmer
*Gravity – Steven Price
The Monuments Men – Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks – Thomas Newman
The Wolf of Wall Street – Howard Shore
MUSIC (Original Song)
“Amen” from All is Lost – Music and Lyric by Alex Ebert
“Farewell” from Inside Llewyn Davis – Music and Lyric by Bob Dylan
“Green, Green Rocky Road” from Inside Llewyn Davis – Music and Lyric by Len Chandler and Robert Kaufman
*“Please Mr. Kennedy” from Inside Llewyn Davis – Music and Lyric by Ed Rush, George Cromarty, T-Bone Burnett, Justin Timberlake, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby – Music by Rick Howels; Lyric by Lana Del Rey
BEST PICTURE
*12 Years a Slave – Dede Gardner, Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Brad Pitt and Bill Pohlad, Producers
American Hustle – Megan Ellison, Charles Roven and Richard Suckle, Producers
Captain Phillips – Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Scott Rudin, Producers
Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón and David Heyman, Producers
Inside Llewyn Davis – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen and Scott Rudin, Producers
Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Lee Daniels, Cassian Elwes, Buddy Patrick and Laura Ziskin, Producers
The Monuments Men – George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Producers
Nebraska – Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa, Producers
Saving Mr. Banks – Ian Collie, Alison Owen and Philip Steuer, Producers
The Wolf of Wall Street – Riza Aziz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Joey McFarland, Martin Scorsese and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
PRODUCTION DESIGN
*12 Years a Slave – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker
The Great Gatsby – Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent
The Monuments Men – Production Design: James D. Bissell; Set Decoration: Bernhard Henrich
Saving Mr. Banks – Production Design: Michael Corenblith; Set Decoration: Susan Benjamin
SOUND EDITING
*Captain Phillips – Oliver Tarney
Gravity – Glenn Freemantle
Rush – Frank Kruse
Star Trek Into Darkness – Matthew Wood
The Wolf of Wall Street – Philip Stockton
SOUND MIXING
All is Lost – Gillian Arthur and Micah Bloomberg
Captain Phillips – Pud Cusack and Tim Fraser
*Gravity – Chris Munro and Skip Lievsay
Inside Llewyn Davis – Peter F. Kurland and Greg Orloff
Rush – Paul Paragon and Stefan Korte
VISUAL EFFECTS
Elysium – Peter Muyzers, Grady Cofer, Jonathan Harb, Erik Nordby and Stephen Pepper
*Gravity – Tony Clark, Matt Kasmir, Richard McBride and Ben Morris
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri
Man of Steel – John ‘D.J.’ Des Jardin, Dan Lemmon, Keith Miller, Guillaume Rocheron, Chad Wiebe and Ged Wright
Pacific Rim – John Knoll, James E. Price, Nigel Sumner and Zachary Tucker
WRITING (Adapted Screenplay)
*12 Years a Slave – Screenplay by John Ridley
Before Midnight – Screenplay by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips – Screenplay by Billy Ray
The Monuments Men – Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov
The Wolf of Wall Street – Screenplay by Terence Winter
WRITING (Original Screenplay)
*American Hustle – Written by Eric Singer & David O. Russell
Gravity – Written by Alfonso Cuarón & Jonás Cuarón
Inside Llewyn Davis – Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Nebraska – Written by Bob Nelson
Saving Mr. Banks – Written by Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith
* indicates the winner.
– 12 Years a Slave scored 11 nominations, won 5 Oscars including Best Picture.
– Gravity scored 10 nominations, won 5 Oscars including Best Director.
– Captain Phillips scored 9 nominations, won 1 Oscar.
– The Wolf of Wall Street scored 8 nominations, won 2 Oscars.
– American Hustle scored 7 nominations, won 2 Oscars including Best Lead Actress.
NYFCC – 2013 (Predictions)
Best Actor: Robert Redford – All is Lost
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Best Animated Film: The Wind Rises
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Best Director: Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Beat Film: 12 Years a Slave
Best First Film: Destin Cretton – Short Term 12
Best Foreign Language Film: Blue is the Warmest Color
Beat Non-Fiction Film: Stories We Tell
Best Screenplay: Richard Linklater – Before Midnight
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actress: June Squibb – Nebraska
I know I am a bit biased because I loved this film so much but I just don’t know how on earth 12 Years A Slave wouldn’t win Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor. Besides the film deserving it, it would also be an incredibly historic and benchmark night for black artist.
OT (first):
Has AD just changed its screen format? I clicked for a new page a few times and this current format, with virtually white background, auto-smaller fonts, etc., kept coming back.
If, yes; no offense, but from this year’s regular reader’s viewpoint: I prefer the old one (used until a couple of days ago or so). If it was just my laptop, then sorry for wasting your 10 seconds of your life, everyone. : )
—
I enjoy reading Wells’ site (and certainly Sasha [and Ryan’s] [’s] site ) on regular basis or at least every other day or so. As for his thoughts on Saving Mr. Banks, he’d reportedly read the script first — that was one of those risks one need to take, but if I were him, I wouldn’t — and it seems the film, also screened in London, where he reportedly went for a couple of days or so, mainly to see it, somewhat yielded a result relatively less positive than what he had reportedly been expecting. . . .
I personally think one of its trailers (if there are two or more) I saw on AD weeks ago is all right. And it looks like a good, if not great, film to me. Something that I #feel# I should be able to enjoy it. My taste, nowadays, relatively cheesy, speaking on AD terms, I tend to think more like Oscars [at …]; so, speaking for myself, often times I agreed with them in the past years. And sight unseen notwithstanding, I feel Saving Mr. Banks might be safe for the ten-slot BP list.
same thing has been happening for me – the white format with much missing info – and missing ads.
BEST PICTURES OSCARS 2013 (SOLID 5)
1) 12 Years A Slave* [Winner]
2) Gravity
3) American Hustle
4) The Monuments Men
5) Saving Mr. Banks
No way on Monuments Men.
I am very intrigued that so many actors and actresses of color are strong contenders.
so…these folks have actually seen AMERICAN HUSTLE?
Thanks Chris. 🙂 (I’m posting the comment here instead of responding to the actual comment only because the page wouldn’t let me.)
It feels good to be passionate about movies.
Unrelated but an interesting piece about Weinstein and The Grace of Monaco.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2013/oct/21/grace-monaco-director-harvey-weinstein
I don’t know where else to ask this question, so I’ll ask it here:
After already seeing Prisoners, Rush, Gravity, Captain Phillips… What is the main movie now that everyone is most excited to see, especially in terms of Oscar contenders???
I heard earlier tonight that The Wolf of Wall Street will indeed be released on Christmas Day, so for me it’s BY FAR The Wolf of Wall Street. JOY!!!
1. Wolf Of Wall Street
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Her
4. American Hustle
5. Blue Is The Warmest Color
6. The Past
7. Labor Day
8. Snowpiercer
9. Dallas Buyers Club
10. The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug
Dude, Chris, that is AWESOME. I agree with your top 2. Those are mine as well. I think that Inside Llewin Davis will be amazing. I can tell already just from the, like, 1,000 theatrical trailers the Coens have released. (Joke of course, but it does seem like they’ve had a lot of trailer for that one).
I’m a little scared of Her to be honest. Spike Jonze has done some amazing work, but this one could just be weird. But, look at me, now who’s the one trying to prognosticate. Don’t you just love it? 🙂
Yeah, there really have been a lot of trailers for Llewyn Davis. I’ve been actively trying to avoid them actually. Haven’t done the best job, but I’m trying.
Regarding Her, I’d say I was vaguely skeptical about it until I read some of the glowing reactions from New York, including Sasha’s. I had to skim through those in order to keep myself somewhat unsullied, but I got the idea that people went for it in a big way. Now its a must see for me.
Okay, I will take your word for it Chris. And, for the record, also The Monuments Men. I just needed a moment to let it all in.
Judging by the trailer for The Monuments Men, it does look hokey. I just don’t want to be disappointed by it. WAY BACK at the beginning of 2013, I thought of The Monuments Men like I had thought of Flags of Our Fathers. A true story about WW2, with some prestige thrown in. And then Flags of Our Fathers was snubbed by the Oscars. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. >.<
I’d cheer Wolf just for the reason than it is a late entry – break up the predictions rut we’ve been in for a few years.
Sasha vast powers are becoming apparent at last. She has refused to predict a movie before it is seen, so the studios have had to release films earlier so they can make her charts….. get all-important AD-buzz.
I hate to sound like a dick, but LOL at the 7 votes for The Monuments Men. I get it, because nobody’s seen it yet. But I have, and just…….no. Like very, very seriously NO.
That movie is a perfect example of why films shouldn’t be predicted in advance of people seeing them, actually. I know Sasha has actively discouraged this on several occasions, and mainly I think the reason why not to is that sometimes they turn out to be complete turkeys, like The Monuments Men.
I will say that Karger’s list looks like a correct prediction, provided that Wolf opens this year. That guy is really good at predictions.
If nobody’s seen The Monuments Men, how are you so sure its bad? Test screenings? The same ones that said The Wolf of Wall Street was boring and way too long? Or is this some anti-Monuments Men thing that somehow doesn’t apply to other unseen films like American Hustle and Wolf of Wall Street.
He HAS seen it.
Just looking at my own predictions, Polowy’s predix come closest to mine, but I don’t see Mitty making it like he does. I don’t think Butler makes it and Fruitvale will.
I obviously don’t speak for the Academy, and this comment is for me, but, remember, you don’t speak for everyone, and you don’t speak for the Academy.
I ONLY say this because I am a fanboy, who just loves movies, and only wants the best for them… So please don’t take any offense. I don’t mean to offend.
Remember, the Academy nominated Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close for Best Picture in 2011, with that movie getting mixed reviews. So anything can happen.
(But at the same time, thank you Chris for your comment.) 🙂
Very true about Extremely Loud, Al. But that movie at least put on the clothing of a movie to be taken seriously. The Monuments Men is almost defiantly farcical, as if Clooney is spitting in the face of “credibility” or “legitimacy”. I guess some viewers may find that refreshing; indeed, there is something liberating about a filmmaker who doesn’t give a fuck about awards potential. But the big question of this movie, “Was it worth it for these guys to risk their lives, and even lose them in certain cases, for some old paintings?”, requires the film to convince the viewer that YES, it was absolutely worth it. When the movie looks like a bunch of movie stars hamming it up on vacation in Europe it doesn’t do a particularly good job of that. In fact, the movie skirts the line of trivialization, which gave me a vaguely queasy feeling.
But hey, you are absolutely right. This is only my opinion, and I absolutely do not speak for the Academy. If I did, Crash would’ve NEVER won. 🙂
I already feel bad for getting upset at you Chris. You’ve come back with two great comments. LOL. Yes, Crash would’ve NEVER won indeed!! It was Brokeback Mountain’s year in 2005.
BTW, I’m so glad that we can razz each other here, and NOT take it personally. So far in the few years already that I’ve been commenting on Awards Daily, I’ve noticed that there are some really cool people who comment here as well. It makes me feel more comfortable being me.
It’s awesome that there are sites like this for people who are more than obsessed with things like movies and awards. Thanks Sasha and Ryan! 🙂
You should feel as comfortable as possible! This is a safe zone to talk about the thing we all are passionate about. You are a welcome addition to the conversation!