Here is how the Gurus of Gold, a collection of Oscar pundits, thinks the Best Picture race looks:
Here is how the chart looked last year around this time – only one film – Django Unchained – wasn’t present on this list (and was a late breaking film) and the winner was in the number one spot. That would change, however, in the weeks that followed – Lincoln would take the lead, then Zero Dark Thirty, and finally Argo again. You have to go back to 2005 to find a year when the winner of the Best Picture race was not on the Gurus list. Other than the fluke that was last year, generally speaking, the Gurus do not — I repeat — do not have the Best Picture winner decided this early. The one time that they did have the winner in place this early was Slumdog Millionaire. With 12 Years a Slave it’s probably either going to have that kind of trajectory (winning everything) or another film will eventually beat it.
Best Actress looks like this:
It’s interesting that the three women on the panel have singled out Brie Larson for Short Term 12, while a couple of the dudes went for Adele Archopoulos. I guess that isn’t the world’s biggest shocker but it’s worth noting.
I forgot to add Judi Dench for Philomena (I still have not seen it) and would have if I’d been of right mind. I do think she has a strong shot at this point – but I don’t know whom to dump. I’m betting that Amy Adams is once again a major standout for American Hustle, and thus will make the cut. Dench, of course, seems destined, too, to get in. The difference: Dench doesn’t campaign and Amy Adams will.
The race appears to be down to Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock, at least right now. Had Bullock not recently won for The Blind Side this would be a cakewalk for her. On the other hand, Blanchett’s is, to my mind of the best, if not the best performances of the year, male or female.
Last year, look at how mostly right the Gurus were – save Marion Cotillard and Helen Mirren. Anne Thompson and Dave Karger were kind of more on it than most, it’s worth noting. This gives me even more hope for Brie Larson to make the cut.
Best Actor looks like this:
I have a feeling that either Chiwetel Ejiofor will win Best Actor or 12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. It’s entirely possible both will win but for now I’m betting that Redford pulls ahead. But it’s a toss-up, really. The hardest call is where Bruce Dern will fit in the Best Actor race, or whether he’ll bump Forest Whitaker.
Locked:
Ejiofor
Redford
McConaughey
That leaves two slots open, with Christian Bale for American Hustle and Leonardo DiCaprio for Wolf of Wall Street still to come. Bruce Dern would indeed win Best Supporting Actor if he were put in that slot. But Nebraska is about him, his inner world, his dreams and failures. It’s tough to make a case for him in supporting. The reason he’s not one of the strongest contenders right now, is that both he and Forest Whitaker have the more subtler performances, equally brilliant. If both get in, that means Tom Hanks gets dumped. That’s hard to imagine. Best Actor is a real race, to be sure. Here is how it looked last year (there was never any contest):
Supporting Actress:
I have to note that I accidentally left Octavia Spencer off my list. But I would definitely include her if I had a do-over. I guess Julia Roberts is going Supporting for August: Osage County. If so, she’s probably in.
Last year’s was WAY OFF:
And Best Supporting Actor this year:
And last year’s:
Anyone who does not have Blue Jasmine listed as a Best Picture nominee has no business comenting on these matters and should be scorned and reviled at every turn.
I really am looking forward to seeing Black Nativity. I know next to nothing about the highly regarded place it has in theatrical history. And the trailer looked sincere and enjoyable.
This could be a banner year for films with majority black casts.
No one thinks Mandela has a chance to get in there and finish in the top ten by the time this is all said and done?
Shot007, Mandela looks amazing to me.
In any other year, Morgan Freeman’s toothy Halloween Mandela dentures can get a best actor nomination. This year we have to factor in the ability of 3000 white guys in the Academy to choose 4 Black Best Actor nominees.
I’m probably not the most reliable guy to ask this year. Does nobody but me think the acting and direction in Black Nativity looks terrifically warm and genuine in the trailer for Black Nativity?
(Kasi Lemmons, anybody? Eve’s Bayou? Anybody?)
KANE …Benny and K BOWEN are not the same person , but if you were Sherlock Holmes you couldn’t find your way out of the rain
Why is no one talking about all of the original songs in “12 Years a Slave?” All painstakingly researched and beautifully performed.
When I was young
I saw the sun
Too hot for me
Too late for me
Live or die
Lay down and cry
Hey boys!
I’m tired
My Lord Sunrise …
The first stanza of the original song “My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)”
Maybe not enough people have been made aware yet. I didn’t know it myself until I got a press release a few minutes ago.
We do need to get this in the conversation. I’ll post the information I received today. Thanks, Shawn.
Sounds to me like Benny and K. Bowen are the same person. It’s funny to me how a movie can be loved by both the audience AND the critics on such a high level yet the entire populace is wrong because of your opinions. “Sober and mature minded”…yeah because people under 60 are incapable of viewing a movie for what it is and NOT a threat to 12 Years a Slave. I feel like a few trolls are adrift and not Clooney…
I see only two names as locks for the best actor category: Dern and Ejiofor.
But I was going to say, 12 Years would be a deserving winner, because it is genuinely emotionally moving.
Unlike a certain space movie that is emotionally phony.
There I go again! 🙂
[SPOILERS]
“I’m being unfair to “Airport ’75″. Unlike Sandy Bullock, Karen Black found no need to strip down to her underwear to perform her duties”
She probably didn’t need a pep talk from a corpse, either.
[SPOILERS]
“Bullock deserves a Razzie Award , while Clueless Cloony was wise to drift off into space and get the hell out of a lousy movie early on ”
But then he comes back for one scene … arguably the worst scene in the history of movies.
“Benny Tarleton, Agreed. “Gravity” is reminiscent of “Airport ’75″ wherein Karen Black, the stewardess, has to land the plane herself after the flight crew has perished. Add some snazzy special-effects and you apparently have a best picture contender on your hands.”
Wow, and I thought I was hard on it. lol.
Bullock deserves a Razzie Award , while Clueless Cloony was wise to drift off into space and get the hell out of a lousy movie early on …I couldn’t help but notice that the folks who left before the end were older folks like myself and similar in age to the majority of Academy voters…those sober and mature minded 60 ish crowd are never going to go for GRAVITY …., even Saving Mr Banks has more of a chance as they do tend to like movies about making movies , a la The Artist and Argo , as it appeals to their egos and sense of importance
I’m being unfair to “Airport ’75”. Unlike Sandy Bullock, Karen Black found no need to strip down to her underwear to perform her duties
It was REX REID who wisely tipped us off to the achilles heel of Lincoln , that it was in parts , just boring , and now he soberly points out why GRAVITY will not be taken serious as a best picture winner and only awarded it a 75 at Metacritic
” Accept Gravity as pure, popcorn-munching show business fun and nothing else, and you won’t go away disappointed. Leave logic at the concession stand. After Mr. Clooney cuts himself loose to save his partner in a gesture so noble you don’t know if it’s heroic or insane, what began as a two-hander in Flash Gordon costumes turns into a one-woman monologue, and Ms. Bullock is left alone to spend the rest of the movie talking to herself, locating a Chinese spaceship with controls that might get her home (how would she know, since the voices and instructions are all in Mandarin?), climbing through explosions and fires inside the space craft, manually expanding her dwindling oxygen supply and reaching mission control in a foreign vessel with nobody to instruct her in English. For a medical engineer on her very first shuttle mission, she’s just the kind of gal you want playing around with your broken telescope. The preposterous miracles she performs in the script, written by Mr. Cuarón and his son, Jonas, are not even peripherally believable, but Gravity is, as Bullock says, “one helluva ride.”
=============================
It’s simply not the type of movie that the Academy voters will use to showcase the best movie of the year …even if 12 YRS were not in the race then Saving Mr Banks would be more Oscar worthy ,with Tom Hanks maybe winning a BSA Oscar
PJ, you stated McConaughey never won a precursor. I just corrected you in saying he did. Why bring Ann Dowd into this and try to change you argument?
Benny Tarleton, Agreed. “Gravity” is reminiscent of “Airport ’75” wherein Karen Black, the stewardess, has to land the plane herself after the flight crew has perished. Add some snazzy special-effects and you apparently have a best picture contender on your hands.
The movie critics raving about this movie remind me of what the late , great, Carl Sagan wisely noted about the rash of ”so called ” U F O sightings back in the 1980’s
”There’s something strange going on alright , something weird and bizarre , however , it’s not in outer space , but merely in inner space ” !
pretty much bet the 401k on 12YAS taking home best picture oscar …
And furthermore , all those so called professional movie critics giving rave reviews for this movie must be suffering a decidedly lack of gravity in the vacuum between their ears …..just what the fark were they thinking
Even if 12 YRS was not in the race then GRAVITY would still not win , nor deserve to win …those Academy voters are no eggheads but they have more highbrow tastes in movies to showcase their best picture category than this high tech , special effects BEDLAM ….I never got to see how the movie ended as I simply could not endure any more of it and would, quite frankly , rather have a root canal than go through that experience again
..it is , in the words of Macbeth, ”A story told by an idiot , filled with sound and fury , signifying nothing ” !
I see that Sasha has changed her prediction for EJIOFOR winning BA to REDFORD….could be ?…..but somehow I doubt it …if 12 YRS only wins one acting Oscar then it’s best chance will be EJIOFOR as Fassbender and Nyongo could both lose out
I think 12 YRS wins BP BD and BA in a similar way that the ARTIST and THE KINGS SPEECH did
.
Chris Price, I hope so. Still waiting to see it, also. Saw the trailer (playing before “12 Years”} and I am certainly going. I expect it in another week or two. I have a feeling McConaughey will go further with the Academy that the film itself .Just a feeling.
Chris Price,
What about the movie (Dallas Buyers Club)? Do you think the movie is also BP worthy?
I haven’t seen it yet. I think it’s currently only playing in New York and Los Angeles. I heard on the radio that Minnesota is a “fly-over state”. Movies too? (Just a little self-deprecating Minnesota humor). 🙂
My gut tells me the most likely spoiler to the 12 Years/Gravity victory party is “Nebraska”. It would have to catch on with audiences for this to happen, which puts a lot of pressure on the marketers at Paramount (who did pretty well with “The Descendants”).
Jerry Grant. thanks for your articulate re-stating of my point regarding “12 Years”, “Hurt Locker” etc. Yes, that is precisely what I meant. I also agree with your further point about all other comers this season. I like Russell and Scorsese, but it remains to be seen what they bring to the table, Curiously. both “American Hustle” and “Wolf of Wall St.” seem to have similar themes and demographic appeal. Will either distinguish itself over the other?
PJ,
I wouldn’t have made that bet last year. For Magic Mike? I thought he was an outside shot at best for that. His role in Dallas Buyers Club is revelatory. It would be like not nominating Daniel Day Lewis last year. Not gonna happen.
And yes, Bryce Forestieri, absolutely McConaughahey is a lock for a nomination,
Sammy, I agree about multiple wins for “12 Years”. At least one for acting; especially rooting for Lupita Nyong’o to keep Oprah away from the podium. That would be doubly sweet.
Tom Hanks will win Best Actor for Captain Phillips.
That is all.
McConaughey is a lock
PJ, if you think McConaughey won’t get nominated for Best Actor this year I want what you’re smoking OR you haven’t seen the film yet. Either way you’re just plain wrong. I’d put all the money on it.
And if I took that bet last year I would win.
Wow, what incredibly specious logic, PJ.
That wasn’t my logic.
I am expecting “Slumdog” style wins for 12 Years a Slave – Globes, Bafta, DGA, PGA and finally Oscar. At least one actor from 12 Years will win an Oscar. I hope it would be Fassbender.
I would like to point out that “Avatar” was a much bigger deal when it came out than “Gravity” is. The point is not which film is better, it’s which was more likely to have sway with the Academy. Joe Clinton’s original point holds. That “Hurt Locker” could beat “Avatar” helps make clear why “12 Years”–which will be a more important movie than “Hurt Locker”–is beating “Gravity”–which will arguably be a less important movie than “Avatar”.
Of course, no two years are equivalent. But I just can’t see plausible arguments for why any movie would be in a position to beat “12 Years” at this point in the game. Not “Gravity,” definitely not “Captain Phillips” or “The Butler.” Waiting on reception of “Nebraska” and “Saving Mr. Banks,” and release of “American Hustle” and “Wolf of Wall Street”, or some surprising “sinking” of “12 Years” to change that dynamic. But until then, “12 Years” is undoubtedly in the #1 spot.
The Butler could certainly squeeze its way into the final 9 or 10 BP nods thanks to Harvey, but it would be a bummer in such a strong year. Worse things have happened at the Oscars, though…..
PJ, if you think McConaughey won’t get nominated for Best Actor this year I want what you’re smoking OR you haven’t seen the film yet. Either way you’re just plain wrong. I’d put all the money on it.
Ann Dowd, I love ya, darlin’ and you a fine talent. Perhaps it would not be prudent to start pricing red carpet-type gowns just on the basis of the previous comments. You never know how these things turn out, but it is only November and there is plenty of time for that sort of thing.
Wow, what incredibly specious logic, PJ.
PJ, “Matthew “I have never hit a precursor ever” McConaughey.” Last I checked he won best supporting actor last year from the NSFC and the NYFCC. Plus he was nominated by the Broadcast Critics. Even if that’s as far as he got last year, for a guy like him on his current trajectory, and where he was not 3 or 4 years ago, that’s a big deal.
Ann Dowd won best supporting actress at NBR and was nominated at Broadcast Critics. I guess that now makes her the frontrunner this year for Side Effects.
I would still like to think I’m bitter, though.
Joe Clinton, that’s fair.
Kane, I don’t have particular love for “Avatar”, “Gravity”, or the Academy. But I think “12 Years a Slave” is a terrific movie, and I would be glad to see it win Best Picture.
Ted, in answer to your question: Yes.
Benny, Alien and The Terminator still got nominations/wins. Star Wars was nominated for best picture, director, original screenplay and supporting actor. Whether Gravity has what it takes to win besto picture or not, it’s clearly loved the world over and it will figure heavily into the Oscar race. I believe you’re bitter because it’s actually giving 12 Years a Slave a good run for the gold, even if Gravity won’t win.
Joe Clinton, “If The Hurt Locker edges out Avatar, 12 Years crushes Gravity.” If you think Avatar is in the same league as Gravity then you view the Oscars in the most plain black and white prism.
PJ, “Matthew “I have never hit a precursor ever” McConaughey.” Last I checked he won best supporting actor last year from the NSFC and the NYFCC. Plus he was nominated by the Broadcast Critics. Even if that’s as far as he got last year, for a guy like him on his current trajectory, and where he was not 3 or 4 years ago, that’s a big deal.
12 YEARS A SLAVE is a great film, don’t get me wrong, but how did it turn into the far and away defacto WINNERRRRRRR of this year? It’s the most honest depiction of slavery on film to date, but does that equal Best Picture?
I’d still give Best Actor to Bruce Dern. Still confused why Robert Redford is getting SO MUCH BUZZ for a performance I thought was incredibly one-note, and a film that was so bland I almost fell asleep.
Kris Tapley, for one, thinks Gravity currently has the edge on 12 Years. I respect Kris as a prognosticator but in this case I think he is wrong. I simply cannot see the academy as a whole go for something so outlandish (in an Oscar perspective, anyway) as Gravity. It will take home prizes for visual effects and cinematography (where the academy is curiously unafraid to bestow honors on technically inventive feats of filmmaking), probably sound and original score as well. But the big categories are 12 Years’ to lose.
Also: watch out for Dallas Buyers Club. I think its good run in limited release plus stronger-than-expected reviews could secure the film a bp spot and two oscars on the big night could be the result: I could easily see both Leto and McConaughey win, though Leto stands a greater chance with the lesser competition in supp actor. McCounaghey has to out-maneuver BOTH Ejiofor and Redford (will he be able to ride on a sentimental surge to the win even though All is Lost is not doing well box-office-wise?)
Let’s say it this way. If “Hurt Locker” edges out “Avatar”. “12 Years” crushes “Gravity”. Next topic, please.
Gravity is just awful and preposterous and the dialogue painful …., not so much science fiction as science fantasy …it’s the kind of movie that would impress the under thirty crowd with it’s special effects but the average 60’ish Academy voter will be far from impressed with it as it belongs in the genre with Star Wars , The Terminator , Alien etc …the folks who voted for Slumdog Millionaire , The Artist and the Kings Speech are not going to go for this
“Captain Phillips” seems like one of those films that is respected, gets nominated, but does not elicit the passion to get the big prizes. “12 Years” passes all the tests: craftsmanship, performances, accomplished directing, historical significance, and real passion. What’s gonna beat that? “Gravity”? As long as “12 Years” doesn’t die in wide release, I don’t see what could go wrong.
Kubrickian, obviously Spielbergian, now I think it’s quite Dreyerian too!
(Kubrickian + Spielbergian) Dreyerian = Cuaronian
Let’s give the AC a new word because we’ll need it going forward.
I’ve also made a twitter wish that the current GURU consensus be set in stone. No changes allowed, at least among first choices.
It’s true that the Gurus don’t have the best picture decided at this time of the year , but this year is not typical …it is in fact one of those highly unusual years , say once every 10-20 years when a movie arrives with such explosive content , a la Schindler’s List , that it just blows the competition right out of the water
And furthermore, 12 YRS is even more explosive than S L because it’s about American history and not German and as such will resonate more with the Academy voters…it’s an expose of America’s dirty secret beneath the bright shining dream and quasi mythology of the so called ”Land of the free and home of the brave ”
When 12 YRS takes off like a forest fire EJIOFOR will be carried along in it’s wake ; after all , he’s the very heart and soul of the movie in a somewhat similar way that Day lewis was to LINCOLN
Redford could very well win SAG, like Tommy Lee did last season , but then lost out when the Lincoln momentum ran out ……ALL IS LOST will not even be nominated
Joe Clinton: “What “Gravity” lacks is contained in its title.” Great line. Of course I love the movie but if the battle comes down to 12 Yrs vs. Gravity, yes, that will be what it comes down to.
PatMulholland: Redford not a lock for a nom? Bwah? From everything I hear, Redford is not only extraordinary, possibly the best of his career, but also everyone’s recognizing it. And the Academy loves Redford. Even if the movie isn’t big, Robert Redford will get attention. (It would be like saying Jeff Bridges might not get nominated for “Crazy Heart” because the movie’s too small. No, it’s a late Jeff Bridges performance, and everyone recognizes it. And “All Is Lost” looks to be a better, bigger movie than “Crazy Heart”.)
Also, I really don’t see “Captain Phillips” staying up that high as the year progresses. And Tom Hanks is a good guess for Actor, but I could totally see him not making it. The last 15 minutes–he’s absolutely extraordinary, some of the best Hanks moments onscreen ever, and that is quite a statement. But will the movie continue to hold interest? Will it stay in people’s memories? I’m just not sure. DiCaprio or Bale or Phoenix could easily slip in there instead.
Also, I’ll say it again: No chance “The Butler” wins Best Picture. And most definitely not in the year of “12 Years”. It will not find a renewed audience that decides it’s the best movie of the year. There were plenty of people that thought “Crash” was their favorite movie of the year when it first came out. Tons of people thought that about “Argo”. Tons of people thought that about “The King’s Speech”. Nobody ever thought that or thinks that about “The Butler”.
Joe Clinton,
I couldn’t agree with you more. Sight unseen I think I’ll prefer Her, but yes, I think the Academy might gravitate towards August: Osage County.
I just keep thinking about the Oscar Podcasts, where Sasha has said multiple times that the largest body of the academy is actors, and they like to vote for movies full of strong actors, and especially strong performances. I think that if August: Osage County gets great reviews, and has a lot more buzz about the performances, then maybe my personal 9 WOULD have to either include August as a 10th or remove something else.
Hanks is locked over both Robert “no one wants to see my film” Redford and Matthew “I have never hit a precursor ever” McConaughey. Leo will sweep comedy precursors so he is easily in over Dern. Bale is gonna be in a top 3 film and has a physical transformation that puts Ole Matt to shame. He is already telling tales about how he dislocated his back doing his slouch for his character. Might as well start facing the music now so losing favorites doesn’t hurt so much later.
Her over August Osage County?
The trailer for “August” does everything it can to keep me away from the film. It’s like “Look at our big, dysfunctional family, it’s probably just like yours.” I get nervous when I see the playwright has written the screenplay. Perhaps the trailer is misleading, trying to lure in Joe Lunchbucket and Mary Housecoat. We’ll see.
I think people are really underestimating August Osage County. We seem to get a “hot mess” film every year since the nomination rules changed, one that’s released late and been buzzed about the entire year. Extremely Loud, Les Miserables got the hot mess spots the last two years. August Osage County will get it this year.
Craig says, “How can you build a film around an almost entirely passive character, whom everything happens around but who has no real bearing on the events that play out in the film, and still make that movie work? Answer is, you can’t.”
I say, “The Remains of the Day”
Al Robinson, yes that’s a very strong, secure list. Funny about your 2 alternates – they are pretty much polar opposites. Sight unseen, I would sooner like “Her” and the Academy might prefer “August”.
if WB pushes it, Harrison Ford could surprise and make it in supporting for 42 —
sentimental fave, never won, and he’s great in the movie
re: actor — no one will (or should) beat Ejiofor
I realize that I picked the same top 9 as listed from Gurus of Gold, but I think they have a point. That is why I separately picked the same 9. I just don’t see any others getting in. IF there was 10 or an alternate, then the only 2 otherwise I could possibly see is August: Osage County and/or Her.
“12 Years” vs. “Gravity”? I welcome that duel. What “Gravity” lacks is contained in its title. The Academy just cannot ignore “12 Years” weight and pure cinematic artfulness. I will scream with delight when “12 Years a Slave” wins best picture – and it will.
I’m predicting that it’ll be 9 again for Best Picture:
12 Years a Slave – October 18, 2013
American Hustle – December 13, 2013
The Butler – August 16, 2013
Captain Phillips – October 11, 2013
Gravity – October 4, 2013
Inside Llewyn Davis – December 6, 2013
Nebraska – November 15, 2013
Saving Mr. Banks – December 13, 2013
The Wolf of Wall Street – December 25, 2013
^^^ Please do that soon! November is when people stick with voters, just as the critics awards are beginning and before Academy ballots are cast.
I think this kind of speculation hurts the eventual nominees. We’re already closing the gates too soon for performances like Julie Delpy’s in Before Midnight and Greta Gerwig’s in Frances Ha. Hell, it seems like Jeremy Renner is out of the race before his movie has even been seen, and he’s one hell of an actor. And Christian Bale? He could kill it, as could Leonardo DiCaprio. With trying to guess the nominees by choosing what we think AMPAS’ tastes will be, we move away from the work and just keep perpetuating the worst qualities of the Oscars. I look forward to Sasha’s passionate pleas for people who deserve the attention and likely have no chance since they’re simply not being talked about.
Wow! How is that Berenice Bejo isn’t even worth one guru mention? That will change once THE PAST is seen. And she could go lead or support–but in support, I’m thinking she could definitely be nominated.
And yes, Jonze FULLY delivers with Her. In my opinion, Nebraska is Payne’s masterpiece. Most beautifully rendered, authentically emotional film he has done. I wasn’t AT ALL excited by trailer, and am not a rabid fan of his by any means. Nebraska is just THAT GOOD. I think it could make a run for best pic, if it picks up buzz. Seems eerily quiet on that front…still!
There’s no point on predicting right now. Just wait til about the end of December people.
Let me do some updated guessing for fun.
Best Picture: American Hustle (winner), The Wolf of Wall Street, Blue Jasmine, 12 Years a Slave, The Butler, Gravity, Captain Phillips, The Place Beyond the Pines
Best Director: David O. Russell (winner), Woody Allen, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen, Martin Scorsese
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey (winner) nominated for Dallas Buyer’s Club but wins for two years of stellar work and going from naked bongo guy to one of our most respected actors
Forest Whitaker nominated for The Butler but with an assist from Black Nativity.
Bruce Dern for being Bruce Dern
Leonardo DiCaprio for WoW and that they like to make him show up for no reason = lulz
Christian Bale because he’s a god among men. And he’s also got the two performances that seem nothing alike.
(Chiwetel Ejiofor misses because he doesn’t have enough friends.)
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, winner of all things
All the other actresses are informed to stay home so as not to embarrass themselves.
Best Supporting Actor : Bradley Cooper (winner) for American Hustle plus Place Beyond the Pines and pink curlers and he loves his mom and my Cherie amour….
George Clooney for Gravity, because they’re obsessed
Harrison Ford, 42, because.
Andrew Dice Clay, for Blue Jasmine because they can’t believe it for some reason
and either Jake Gyllenhaal for Prisoners or Jared Leto for Dallas Buyer’s Club, because the Academy secretly get together once and year and watch Highway and make ‘smores
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, because she deserves an extra one 😛
and fyi, nobody likes Tom Hanks
I really believe Matthew McConoughey is the front runner for best actor. When all of the critics awards start coming out he will win best actor in a very large percentage of them because of his performances in two films, “Dallas Buyer’s Club” and “Mud” and the consensus is he has been picking terrific roles over the last few years and delivering! Ejiofor is terrific, no question, but, if someone can upset McConoughey it would be Redford.
And I am glad people are expressing their dismay over The Butler’s weird support. Oprah? Really? I hope not! Oyelowo? What was so special about his performance?
I’m fine with all of the projected nominees, except I hope that they don’t give in to cheap sentiment with a posthumous nom for Gandolfini. My paisano was a good actor, but he won many awards for a show that negatively stereotyped Italian-Americans (who unhappily hold the record for being the victims of the largest mass lynching in U.S. history).
I wasn’t alone in thinking GRAVITY is clearly Kubrickian, obviously Spielbergian, now I think it’s quite Dreyerian too!
Paulina Garcia is the best of the year she has to get the nomination and even wins for her glorious performance in Gloria.
@Jason
I’m team SaBu for now and likely to remain so, but if by some miracle Paulina got nominated, I might ditch the iconic performance in favor of the Chilean underdog. It’s undoubtedly my #2 at this point.
Let’s start a Paulina Garcia campaign for Best Actress for “Gloria” RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW!
Every time I’ve seen the NEBRASKA trailer in a movie theater nobody responds to it -not even the humor- until the text comes up and says From the Director of SIDEWAYS and THE DECECENDANTS or something, and some people over 40 emit weird/unsettling sounds of approval equivalent to “oh yeah, that’s good shit!”. I have to come to terms with the fact that yet another Payne film will end up with too many major nominations. Such bullshit.
Have to say, if the year ended now, LEE DANIEL’S THE BUTLER already doesn’t really deserve to be nominated for anything. Nothing. So I’m disappointed that at this point in the year so many still see so much “Oscar potential” in it.
If Jonze delivers Jonze and Scorsese delivers Scorsese I’m more than ok with WOLF and HER. Is HER really a player for a Best Pic nomination though?
ALL IS LOST is nowhere to be seen around me so I’ll have to wait more for it. I’m not dying to see it.
How unfortunate that CAPTAIN PHILLIPS is that much of a lock already and will figure in way too many categories.
Finally, if INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS is as good as I’m expecting I’m glad it ranks so high in the predictions. It’s by far my most anticipated of what’s left of the year. It’s the Coens so I trust AMPAS will deliver.
Now AMPAS, please consider:
Jake Gyllenhaal in PRISONERS for Best Actor in a Leading Role. Do something right for change?
Judi Dench is very good in Philomena, she deserves the nomination but Paulina Garcia in Gloria is perfection, she should win.
If it is down to 12 Years A Slave vs. Gravity, my heart wants the former..I felt more connected to the story, acting, etc…Gravity is fine but outside all the beautiful shots, technical achievement I didnt care much about the story or Sandra Bullock’s acting. On the other hand, 12 Years was just great (granted with some weaknesses here and there). But overall, great acting and directing…The survival story in 12 yrs touched me more than the survival story in Gravity.
I agree the Butler is not as good as some people try to make it. Other than Forest Whitaker’s acting I didnt even care about any other acting, but then again as it seems Oprah will get a nod. I wish Octavia Spencer gets in before Oprah. I loved Octavia’s performance in Fruitvale Station, the best onein the movie in my opinion..
Regarding the Best Actress, if it is only about performance, it should be Cate Blanchett over Sandra B. But you never know..If she won for that mediocre movie a few years ago, she may win again for a much much better movie. Unless Amy Adams surprises us or the AMPAS goes sentimental for Judi Dench. Both she and Cate are in the same boat, multiple nominations and only one Supporting win. And they may think that Cate will have more opportunities in the future!
David Oyelowo for The Butler?? Really?? I thought he was one of the weakest links (apart from that former Supermodel contestant who was hilariously bad) in a film full of them.
I saw Philomena recently and I have to say I will be extremely surprised if Dench wins. It’s not a typically showy role and it’s a bit baffling at times, an odd mix. A crowd pleaser shying away from dealing with the real dirt. A lot of fluffy light comedy to take off the edge of the chilling story at the center of the movie. It doesn’t contain anything remotely challenging and that goes for Dench’s performance as well. There’s a recurrent gag about Philomena reading rubbish books that’s painfully lame. My eyes almost rolled out of my head.
Right now, I can’t see anyone beating Blanchett. As good as Bullock was, hers was a role that I think a lot of actresses could have pulled off (or at least that’s how voters will perceive it). Streep? Just no.
Finally saw ‘The Butler’. Sigh. It’s kind of a mess. How can you build a film around an almost entirely passive character, whom everything happens around but who has no real bearing on the events that play out in the film, and still make that movie work? Answer is, you can’t. It was basically a history of the civil rights movement, which I would have been really interested to see had it been in the form of a documentary. Feel like it would have been better served in that genre. And it was sloooow.
Anyway, my two cents.
Wow…..”Slavery Sucks” will either win…or not…that’s like…a really daring prognosis…
Sony Pictures Classics did not have a single winner in that same period. So, I don’t know how that bodes for Cate Blanchett.
Cate doesn’t need SPC. She’s just about the surest sure thing this year. Judi Dench is equally sure for a nomination, but I’m not feeling anyone beating Queen Cate!
Locked:
Ejiofor
Redford
McConaughey
Robert Redford is far from a lock. In such a strong race, I’m not sure he’ll make it, not now that the box office take for All Is Lost has proved so underwhelming.
Jordan, from the reactions of people who saw screenings for American Hustle, I don’t know of anyone who came out wowed by Amy Adams’ performance.
I did some research on the Best Actress category starting with the year that The Weinstein Company was founded (2005). TWC is the studio that has had the most success in that category, with 7 nominations and 3 wins — more nominations and wins than any other studio. So, I definitely think Dench will get nominated, and she might even win (she certainly has the strongest narrative).
Interestingly, Sony Pictures Classics did not have a single winner in that same period. So, I don’t know how that bodes for Cate Blanchett.
I pray that this translates on OScar night! 12 years a slave is too awesome to fail! PRAYING HARD!
I think Larson is higher than 6th? I think she will get nominated
I’ve seen Philomena and it’s nothing special. Dench is fine, but it doesn’t have “big” moments that Oscar-nominated performances tend to have. I don’t think she’s a lock at all, but the film is a crowd-pleaser, and maybe if Weinstein pushes the whole “going blind” side of her story, she might get in. Still pulling for Adams to get in there, otherwise it’s gonna be a boring year with five previous winners.