Check out all of the predictions of pundits at Gold Derby.
Thursday morning, bright and early, the Golden Globes will announce their nominations, only a day after the Screen Actors Guild (tomorrow morning). The Hollywood Foreign Press (HFPA for short) are a unique organization of foreign journalists who are given exclusive access to filmmakers and celebrities. They can’t be bypassed in the awards race no matter how many critics or bloggers dismiss them. They have a popular television show that gives Oscar contenders an audition of sorts. Sometimes what happens at the Globes can completely reverse momentum of a contender in favor of another.
I am reminded of Jim Cameron’s speech at the Globes, with Kathryn Bigelow sitting in the audience. The mood was overwhelmingly in Bigelow’s favor but most already knew that “they” didn’t “like” The Hurt locker. Nonetheless, that was enough to shift sentiment towards Bigelow in a dramatic fashion. The same thing happened last year when Ben Affleck won the Globe right after he was “snubbed” for Oscar nominations. Turns out, Argo was the consensus choice yet the Academy neglected to nominate its director.
Similarly, Lincoln’s own campaign took a major turn from some dirty dealings on the backend. Bill Clinton (a former President) was asked to introduce Lincoln. That favor turned into some nasty accusations, the kind that have been following Spielberg for most of his career — he’s too rich, he’s too powerful, he’s a scary Jew Mogul out to rob the world of quality and taste. Thus, Lincoln’s campaign kept coming off as elitist while Argo’s was continually the little scrappy underdog that could. This is how the Golden Globes can impact the Oscar race. That, and how contenders accept awards.
The Globes are given privileged access to celebrities because missing out on a nod there makes your chances for getting an Oscar nomination a bit harder. You lose all of that publicity potential. It will be interesting to see how certain categories play out, since the films will be divided into drama and comedy.
The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle,Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, and unbelievably August: Osage County, one of the darkest films of the year, are all competing in the comedy/musical category. That is going to be a tight race to the finish.
That leaves more breathing room in drama, where films like 12 Years a Slave, Fruitvale Station, Captain Phillips, Gravity, All is Lost, Prisoners, and Saving Mr. Banks all have a chance to get some attention.
Since so many “big” movies are in comedy, this might be an easier contest to predict than most.
Check out all of my predictions over at GoldDerby.com — and please enter our contest below or else leave your own predictions in the comments!
Ah…I’m an idiot…I was completely going to vote for Franco in Spring Breakers and then rushed through it…what a dope! Hope I get one wrong then I guess
@Ryan, “So the 80 members of the HFPA hear smart people laugh at the wit in the script and they assume it must be a joke that only Americans can ‘get’ so they laugh along and that spells Komedy Klassic.”
I laughed my ass off watching Goodfellas. Never did I think it was a more comedy than drama.
Most members of the HFPA realized Goodfellas wasn’t a comedy during the Head-in-a-Vice scene. Most members.
I agree, KT – they choose their winners like they would a pair of shoes. “Does this look good on me? Is it comfortable? Is it me?”
Gosh, so a backlash of bullheaded resistance by pouty ignoramuses means Chewitel Ejiofor might not win the same gold-plated prize Roberto Begnini won?!
-as usual, Ryan – bullseye.
Just remember these things are all about perception. Who do voters most want to see on the stage? Who do they most want to vote for and are comfortable voting for? I wouldn’t be foolish to let such an action influence my vote, to clarify, but it would be naive to dismiss what happened and the resulting blowback on blogs, on Deadline, in the auditorium at the Beverly Hilton. Look at Ben Affleck’s directing win: the standing ovation happened immediately, (and following Clinton’s appearance) people were crying, the faces are ecstatic for him. That kind of reaction wins Oscars. The tone of the campaign is essential, and I think Lincoln could have performed better with a different approach—and the campaign assuredly impacts likability, for sure.
Regarding standing ovations and perceptions: If George Clooney stands and applauds on national TV, then the whole room stands. Heck, they can’t stand fast enough. They kill themselves leaping to their feet rather than risk appearing to hesitate or — god forbid — fail to stand, and be the last person in the room still sitting down and appearing to sulk or be a partypooper.
Do we think everyone who stands in a standing ovation voted for the winner? Of course we don’t. We know many of the standers are standing because if they don’t stand it shows they voted for a ‘loser’ and they are loathe to have that known. Because at that moment their secret ballot is partially revealed and they would appear on national TV to be someone who voted ‘the wrong way’ if they don’t stand. By joining the standing ovation all the standers can then demonstrate and say with body language: “oh yeah, yay yay, I knew all along the winner would win and look at me here I am standing so it looks like it was ME who helped the winner win.”
Deadline Hollywood thrives on gossip and makes its money by serving the agendas of friends — whichever studio Deadline has decided to befriend and whichever studios they decide to smear. Deadline makes its own news when it can’t find real real news to report (ALL media do that). It’s actually easier and more profitable and more agenda-serving to make news up, to fabricate “narratives,” don’t you agree?
Likewise Blogs are owned and written by individuals with personal agendas reflecting their own eccentric and mercurial webmasters (yes, lo and behold all blogs have personalities running them, not just this one). Blogs either jump on bandwagons or they try to start their own parades, but beware the blogs that never have anything bad to say about most movies because those blogs are taking care not to offend any advertisers).
It’s not always about money either. Sometimes it’s about relationships. Sasha and I both could write things that we know about situations that we chose not to write about — out of consideration for industry connections, intramural blog connections, or ever (rarely but occasionally) in deference and respect for one another.
So yes, KT, I do agree that the awards race and the public waves of ‘consensus’ that can swell up instantly and fade away just as fast in the blogasphere are often created to serve perceptional considerations.
But I take standing ovations with a grain of salt (it looks a lot like lemmings in tuxedos jumping off cliffs, to be honest).
And we should all regard what the mass hive-mind of blogs are saying with a healthy degree of skepticism, bearing in mind the allegiances (usually hidden to outsiders) held by the individual bloggers themselves.
PR events exist to foster ‘public relations’ — sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but it’s a science and and art just as sophisticated (and often just as hinky) as the academy’s own arts and sciences can be. So it’s important to remain aware that Hollywood (and American Society in general) are all powered by engines of perceptions. And most of those perceptions are either misleading or outright lies.
Yeah, I don’t think Lincoln lost because people were sick of the “all powerful” Spielberg. I just don’t think they liked it as much as Argo.
Lincoln didn’t lose because it was considered elitist. It lost because Argo was more “supportable” or “attainable” and a majority of folks deemed it better. Lincoln isn’t a bad film, however I didn’t expect either to win personally. Of the two films amongst my non-film obsessed friends – Argo has been seen and appreciated by most of them – with only a handful seeing Lincoln and of those, many enjoyed it too. Some found it too long and others found Sally Field tedious (myself included in the latter). I think most saw Day-Lewis as the stand-out, rather than the film itself. Say what you like about the fairness, but that happens, right?
Isn’t it probably time to let the Lincoln thing go for just a bit, it’s fuzzing up what is normally good content by you (and keeps me returning). Or am I about to receive a whole bunch of wrath for asking 😛
I agree with you Jorge. It’s discouraging to me, sure, so I do give a bit of a damn, but I believe your explanation is much closer to the reality than to claim “voters were turned off by Clinton.”
Yes, a few voters probably were. And it’s only those voters who I believe are somewhat mentally ill. Most of the voters who chose Argo were not affected in the least by Bill Clinton’s decision to introduce Lincoln instead.
Furthermore, the Lincoln people were not trying to “force” anybody to think Lincoln was important. No. Clinton’s intro was ONLY intended to reinforce the esteem that fans of Lincoln already felt.
Thanks, jorge, for encouraging me to clarify how I feel about the type of people who are so weakminded that the support of Clinton or Solomon Northup’s descedents would piss them off and make them dislike a movie even more. And to clarify further, I believe such weakminded people are rare, a tiny petty pathetic minority of voters.
How is the criminally dismissed Before Midnight being considered a comedy?
It’s witty. Before Midnight is witty and has a sense of humor. So the 80 members of the HFPA hear smart people laugh at the wit in the script and they assume it must be a joke that only Americans can ‘get’ so they laugh along and that spells Komedy Klassic.
Also, another reason, there are never enough quality comedies every year to fill out the meager comedy categories at the Globes so they abduct a couple of dramas that have a laugh or a character who hums a tune at some point and draft that movie as a comedy/musical as long as nobody in the movie dies a horrible death (exceptions to the ‘no horrible death’ clause are comedies like Charlie Wilson’s War and musicals like Les Mis).
Ask ourselves why musicals and comedies get thrown in a 2nd-class ghetto together and the answer is: Arbitrary way to double the number of stars who will show up.
KT brings up an interesting point about ‘forcing people to believe your film is important.” 12 Years has done this same thing and paid the price. They have been trotting out Northups great great great uncles nephew son’s daughter’s ex wife to try and give the film more gravitas. If they try to pull that card during a live award show…..oh boy….
– “Sign up for Obamacare. It’s important. It’s good for you.’
– “Fuck you. Don’t try to tell me what’s important. Don’t try to FORCE me. You can’t force me to believe it’s important, and the more you try, the more I’ll refuse, the more I’ll hate it.
– “ok, fine. Get sick and go broke. I don’t care. Stay uninsured, get brain cancer and die bankrupt you stubborn childish prick.”
This brief parable illustrates the way I feel about people who don’t think Lincoln and 12 Years a Slave are important. I can only say that I myself believe Obamacare and Lincoln and 12 Years are important. I have better things to do with my time that beg people to agree with me.
The Argo people wanted Bill Clinton to introduce Argo. Clinton turned them down. Given a choice, Clinton chose on his own to introduce Lincoln. (Nobody forces Bill Clinton to do anything either.)
If anyone refuses to see Lincoln or 12 Years is important, I personally believe there’s something a little bit broken inside that person. But I do not waste my time trying to force anyone to believe what I believe. It can’t be done. I enjoy Clinton’s intro because his intro is directed at me and other people like me. I don’t give a damn what anybody else thinks about it.
If anyone would be turned off 12 Years by seeing Solomon Northup’s descendants speak about having an immensely important ancestor, then I personally believe there is something a little bit mentally ill with the person who rolls his eyes at that. That’s just me. I can’t FORCE anybody to feel the way I feel, and I would never try. I’ll just appreciate it on my own.
Gosh, so a backlash of bullheaded resistance by pouty ignoramuses means Chewitel Ejiofor might not win the same gold-plated prize Roberto Begnini won?!
That was tough…I couldn’t submit who I felt was the best but rather who I believed they would nominate. I’m not proud of some of my choices…mother help me…
I thought Spielberg would’ve learned his lesson from Saving Private Ryan. Forcing people to believe your films are “important” doesn’t win you Oscars. This was the absolute worst move he could’ve done, invite Bill Clinton to come introduce “important” Lincoln, signaling to everyone that Argo still was the underdog film even though it was winning everything. In fact, when Affleck won the Best Director Globe just a little after Clinton came, Spielberg and Cate looked like they were about to cry….all that for nothing (and no one to advise you against it). This is a funny picture, since on the bottom left corner there is Harvey Weinstein, who seems to be standing out of respect, of course, but is turned away, probably noting to a confidant that this was a dick Oscar move. Now if Clinton had showed up for Zero Dark Thirty to tell all those goons they were being played, that would’ve been something. But Bigelow has too much integrity to play that way.
@SallyinChicago, YES! I think it’s great that the Comedy/Musical categories are more competitive than ever, but then I think about the films submitted as comedies. Were Goodfellas, Casino, and Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? comedies? I at least hope McCarthy gets a well-deserved and not-unprecedented nomination for what was actually the funniest performance this year.
Jew Mogul? Really? Pls remove Very rude!
All I can state is — Sandra Bullock and Melissa need some critics’ love. They were fantastic in THE HEAT. It was the best doggone comedy with the best doggone comic actors in this atmosphere.
…Or Gandolfini was submitted in lead. OK…
Rooting for Hugh Jackman and Melissa McCarthy!
Gandolfini isn’t on the shortlist. I’m not too comfortable predicting him, but Supporting Actor is a shit-show, and some groups are bound to nominate him this year. Plus I get a kick out of having a write-in.
This is probably the most likely major place we’ll see Franco pop up for Spring Breakers
Well I certainly stunk that up.
Anyhoo, listen you guys. We’re in talk show time now. All the nominee hopefuls are poppin’ up on all the talk shows. For example, Amy Adams and Oscar Isaac were both on Jimmy Fallon last night. So keep a look out. It’s the most fun time for watching shows. 🙂
The Globes were the first ones last year who gave Tarantino and Waltz wins, Everyone was kinda surprised at those, Seeing a lot of people had them off their oscar 5
who is Oscar Grant?! lol
Oscar GRANT?!?! in Inside Llewyn Davis?
OMG Bill Clinton! We miss him in this country.