With each new twist in the Oscar race there is the assumption that all of the same people are voting for the same awards. They aren’t. This is true of the critics awards, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice and the Screen Actors, Producers and Directors Guilds. The Academy voters often reflect a slightly different perspective because the various branches, those who have been invited to join, or are Oscar winners themselves, do the voting. Best Picture is the only category where everyone votes. The actors branch is roughly 1200 members, not so different from the SAG nominating committee. But it is worth noting that the SAG voters are randomly selected, as opposed to being a group of members who have reached high points in their careers. I think that makes them slightly different.
The match-up between Academy and SAG is secure enough to make them one of the most important of the precursors but it isn’t 100%. These SAG nominations are coming very early, it feels like, compared to how the rest of the race might play out, but it feels that way every year, particularly when there is a last minute rally for a handful of films.
Her, Fruitvale Station, American Hustle and Wolf of Wall Street were all capturing the buzz before this morning’s announcement. But the SAG nominations have flipped it back to the earlier favorites, Captain Phillips, The Butler, August: Osage County, and most importantly, 12 Years a Slave. This is why having your film out there early, like around Telluride and Toronto or even EARLIER, like Cannes, is important now. The race happens too quickly. When a film can withstand the gauntlet from Cannes to now? You know you have a film that can go the distance. Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska are two that are still sitting pretty in the Oscar race, headed for, at the very least, Best Picture nominations, but perhaps Best Director nods. Much of this has to do with two hard core publicity machines keeping the films, and their spirits, alive. Bruce Dern almost single handedly for Nebraska, and T Bone Burnett and Oscar Isaac keeping the music alive, with an upcoming film about the New York concert even.
Not doing so well is JC Chandor’s All is Lost, which delivered the morning’s biggest surprise with the omission of Robert Redford. What I think happened is that no one wanted to watch the movie. If they did watch it, they would be mesmerized by Redford. But the SAG voters differ from the Academy in this regard – first, I think the Academy members will watch All is Lost. I also think they have reverence for a man who has been acting since the 1950s, who made Ordinary People and Quiz Show. Most of the Academy members grew up under Redford’s shadow. What hurts him, and what hurts all of the contenders in Best Actor, is that it is just too damned competitive. There are so many great performances that when you think you have the top five there are at least five more deserving. Each time a new performance comes along it will have be pushed into the Best Actor category. This time, it was easier for voters who probably didn’t watch All is Lost. Add to that, Redford’s reluctance to hump the circuit like all contenders have to do to get in. This will also hurt Christian Bale, incidentally. In a competitive year the public appearances mean everything. But to my mind I’m thinking: wow, Redford is a man of integrity. He believes that the work should stand for itself. But this is a game. If you want to win you have to play.
I think the Academy will recognize Redford, but that will mean one of SAG’s nominees today will have to be pushed out. And how do you do that? It’s an impossible category.
Meanwhile, Best Actress still looks to be locked in with five: Streep, Blanchett, Dench, Bullock, Thompson. There really isn’t a frontrunner among them – any of them could win. But Blanchett has the early lead.
That American Hustle only got ensemble and one other acting nomination for Jennifer Lawrence but no Actor or Actress — that speaks more to the competition than it does those performances. It has crazy momentum right now and will be a strong Best Picture contender, inexplicably; coming out of the early screenings people, including Anne Thompson, were saying that it was entertaining but not an awards film – it is turning out to be just that – a very strong contender.
The absence of Wolf of Wall Street can be explained by voters maybe not having seen the movie in time. Hardly anyone has seen it. We’ll have to wait to see what the Golden Globes do when we flip the pancake tomorrow morning.
Finally, 12 Years a Slave gains momentum here by being able to lay claim to an ensemble nod where Gravity can’t. Gravity has two actors in it. That, and it being 3D, are the film’s major strikes against it; no 3D film, nor any film with so few actors has ever won Best Picture. 12 Years heads into the SAGs with 4. It could win. But so could American Hustle or August: Osage County – you never know with the SAGs. Only one film in all of SAG’s history has ever won Best Picture without an ensemble nod and that was Braveheart. The Mel Gibson film gained momentum late in the race once Ron Howard was snubbed for director for Apollo 13. And so it goes.
We won’t know whether the SAGs are too early to be indicative of this year’s race or not until we’re long passed it. And tomorrow, the Golden Globes will stir up the dust once again.
Screen Actors Guild
Actor Comparison Charts
|
Actor | 2011 |
Jean DuJardin, The Artist | Jean DuJardin, The Artist |
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar | Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
Demian Bichir, A Better Life | Demian Bichir, A Better Life |
George Clooney, The Descendants | George Clooney, The Descendants |
Brad Pitt, Moneyball | Brad Pitt, Moneyball |
Actress | 2011 |
Viola Davis, The Help | Viola Davis, The Help |
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady |
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin | Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo |
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs |
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn | Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn |
Supporting Actor | 2011 |
Christopher Plummer, Beginners | Christopher Plummer, Beginners |
Nick Nolte, Warrior | Nick Nolte, Warrior |
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn | Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn |
Jonah Hill, Moneyball | Jonah Hill, Moneyball |
J. Edgar: Armie Hammer | Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close |
Supporting Actress | 2011 |
Octavia Spencer, The Help | Octavia Spencer, The Help |
Jessica Chastain, The Help | Jessica Chastain, The Help |
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist | Bérénice Bejo, The Artist |
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs | Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs |
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids | Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
The Help | The Help |
The Artist | The Artist |
Bridesmaids | |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
The Descendants | The Descendants |
Actor | 2010 |
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech | Colin Firth, The King’s Speech |
Jeff Bridges, True Grit | Jeff Bridges, True Grit |
Robert Duvall, Get Low | Javier Bardem, Biutiful |
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network | Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network |
James Franco, 127 Hours | James Franco, 127 Hours |
Actress | |
Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Natalie Portman, Black Swan |
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright | Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright |
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole | Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole |
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone | Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone |
Hillary Swank, Conviction | Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine |
Supporting Actor | |
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone | John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone |
Christian Bale, the Fighter | Christian Bale, The Fighter |
Jeremy Renner, The Town | Jeremy Renner, The Town |
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right | Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right |
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech | Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech |
Supporting Actress | |
Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Melissa Leo, The Fighter |
Amy Adams, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter |
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS | Helena Bonham Carter, TKS |
Mila Kunis, Black Swan | Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom |
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit | Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech |
The Fighter | The Fighter |
Black Swan | Black Swan |
The Kids Are Alright | The Kids Are Alright |
The Social Network | The Social Network |
Won SAG | Won Oscar
Actor | 2009 |
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart | Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart |
Colin Firth, A Single Man | Colin Firth, A Single Man |
Morgan Freeman, Invictus | Morgan Freeman, Invictus |
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker | Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker |
George Clooney, Up in the Air | George Clooney, Up in the Air |
Actress | |
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side | Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side |
Carey Mulligan, An Education | Carey Mulligan, An Education |
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia | Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia |
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious | Gabourey Sidibe, Precious |
Helen Mirren, The Last Station | Helen Mirren, The Last Station |
Supporting Actor | |
Matt Damon, Invictus | Matt Damon, Invictus |
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds | Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds |
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station | Christopher Plummer, The Last Station |
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones | Stanely Tucci, The Lovely Bones |
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger | Woody Harrelson, The Messenger |
Supporting Actress | |
Mo’Nique, Precious | Mo’Nique, Precious |
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds | Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart |
Penelope Cruz, Nine | Penelope Cruz, Nine |
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air | Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air |
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air | Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds |
An Education | An Education |
Nine | Nine |
Precious | Precious |
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
Won SAG | Won Oscar
Actor | 2008 |
Sean Penn, Milk | Sean Penn, Milk |
Frank langella, Frost/Nixon | Frank langella, Frost/Nixon |
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor | Richard Jenkins, The Visitor |
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler | Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler |
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button | Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button |
Actress | |
Meryl Streep Doubt | Meryl Streep, Doubt |
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road | Kate Winslet, The Reader |
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married | Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting marries |
Melissa Leo, Frozen River | Melissa Leo, Frozen River |
Angelina Jolie, Changeling | Angelina Jolie, Changeling |
Supporting Actor | |
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder | Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder |
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight | Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight |
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire | Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road |
Josh Brolin, Milk | Josh Brolin, Milk |
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt |
Supporting Actress | |
Kate Winslet, The Reader | Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler |
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona |
Viola Davis, Doubt | Viola Davis, Doubt |
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button | Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button |
Amy Adams, Doubt | Amy Adams, Doubt |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
Milk | Milk |
Doubt | The Reader |
Actor | 2007 |
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood | Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood |
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl | Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd |
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises | Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises |
George Clooney, Michael Clayton | George Clooney, Michael Clayton |
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild | Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah |
Actress | |
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose | Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose |
Julie Christie, Away from Her | Julie Christie, Away from Her |
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth |
Ellen Page, Juno | Ellen Page, Juno |
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart | Laura Linney, The Savages |
Supporting Actor | |
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men | Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men |
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild | Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild |
Casey Affleck, Jesse James | Casey Affleck, Jesse James |
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton | Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton |
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War |
Supporting Actress | |
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There | Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There |
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone | Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone |
Ruby Dee, American Gangster | Ruby Dee, American Gangster |
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton | Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton |
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild | Saoirse Ronan, Atonement |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men |
3:10 to Yuma | Atonement |
Into the Wild | Michael Clayton |
Hairspray | Juno |
American Gangster | There Will Be Blood |
Actor | 2006 | |
Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) | Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) | |
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) | Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) | |
Peter O’Toole (Venus) | Peter O’Toole (Venus) | |
Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) | Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) | |
Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) | Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) | |
Actress | ||
Penelope Cruz (Volver) | Penelope Cruz (Volver) | |
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) | Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) | |
Helen Mirren (The Queen) | Helen Mirren (The Queen) | |
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) | Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) | |
Kate Winslet (Little Children) | Kate Winslet (Little Children) | |
Supporting Actor | ||
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) | Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) | |
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children) | Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children) | |
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) | Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) | |
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) | Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirl) | |
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed) | Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) | |
Supporting Actress | ||
Adriana Barraza, Babel | Adriana Barraza, Babel | |
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal | Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal | |
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine | Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine | |
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | |
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel | Rinko Kikuchi, Babel | |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | ||
Babel | Babel | |
Bobby | Letters From Iwo Jima | |
The Departed | The Departed | |
Dreamgirls | Dreamgirls | |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine |
Actor | 2005 |
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote |
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain | Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain |
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man | Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow |
David Strathairn, Good Night | David Strathairn, Good Night |
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line | Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line |
Actress | |
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line | Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line |
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents | Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents |
Charlize Theron, North Country | Charlize Theron, North Country |
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica | Felicity Huffman, Transamerica |
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha | Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice |
Supporting Actor | |
George Clooney, Syriana | George Clooney, Syriana |
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain | Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain |
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man | Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man |
Matt Dillon, Crash | Matt Dillon, Crash |
Don Cheadle, Crash | William Hurt, History of Violence |
Supporting Actress | |
Rachiel Weisz, The Constant Gardener | Rachiel Weisz, The Constant Gardener |
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain | Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain |
Catherine keener, Capote | Catherine keener, Capote |
Amy Adams, Junebug | Amy Adams, Junebug |
Frances McDormand, North Country | Frances McDormand, North Country |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain |
Crash | Crash |
Capote | Capote |
Good Night and Good Luck | Good Night, and Good Luck |
Hustle & Flow | Munich |
Actor | 2004 |
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda | Don Cheadle |
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland | Johnny Depp |
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator | Leo DiCaprio |
Jamie Foxx, Ray | Jamie Foxx, Ray |
Paul Giamatti, Sideways | Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby |
Actress | |
Annette Bening / Being Julia | Annette Bening / Being Julia |
Catalina Sandino Moreno /Maria Full of Grace | Catalina Sandino Moreno /Maria Full of Grace |
Imelda Staunton / Vera Drake | Imelda Staunton / Vera Drake |
Hilary Swank / Million Dollar Baby | Hilary Swank / Million Dollar Baby |
Kate Winslet / Eternal Sunshine | Kate Winslet / Eternal Sunshine |
Supporting Actor | |
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways | Thomas Haden Church, Sideways |
Jamie Foxx, Collateral | Jamie Foxx, Collateral |
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby | Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby |
James Garner, The Notebook | Alan Alda, The Aviator |
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland | Clive Owen, Closer |
Supporting Actress | |
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator |
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish | Natalie Portman, Closer |
Laura Linney, Kinsey | Laura Linney, Kinsey |
Virginia Madsen, Sideways | Virginia Madsen, Sideways |
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda | Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
The Aviator | The Aviator |
Finding Neverland | Finding Neverland |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby |
Sideways | Sideways |
Ray | Ray |
Hotel Rwanda |
Best Actor | 2003 |
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean | Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean |
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation | Bill Murray, Lost in Translation |
Sean Penn, Mystic River | Sean Penn, Mystic River |
Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent | Jude Law, Cold Mountain |
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog | Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog |
Best Actress | |
Patricia Clarkson, Station Agent | Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider |
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give | Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give |
Charlize Theron, Monster | Charlize Theron, Monster |
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams | Naomi Watts, 21 Grams |
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen | Samantha Morton, In America |
Supporting Actor: | |
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler | Alec Baldwin, The Cooler |
Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit | Djimon Hounsou, In America |
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams | Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams |
Tim Robbins, Mystic River | Tim Robbins, Mystic River |
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai | Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai |
Supporting Actress: | |
Maria Bello, The Cooler | Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River |
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain | Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain |
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider | Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog |
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April | Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April |
Holly Hunter, Thirteen | Holly Hunter, Thirteen |
Ensemble: | |
In America | Master and Commander |
ROTK | ROTK |
Mystic River | Mystic River |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit |
The Station Agent | Lost in Translation |
2002
Best Actor | |
Adrien Brody, The Pianist | Adrien Brody |
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation | Nicolas Cage |
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York | Daniel Day-Lewis |
Richard Gere, Chicago | Michael Caine |
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt | Jack Nicholson |
Best Actress | |
Salma Hayek, Frida | Salma Hayek, Frida |
Nicole Kidman, The Hours | Nicole Kidman, The Hours |
Diane Lane, Unfaithful | Diane Lane, Unfaithful |
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven | Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven |
Renee Zellweger, Chicago | Renee Zellweger, Chicago |
Supporting Actor: | |
Chris Cooper, Adaptation | Chris Cooper, Adaptation |
Ed Harris, The Hours | Ed Harris, The Hours |
Alfred Molina, Frida | Paul Newman, Road to Perdition |
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven | John C. Reilly, Chicago |
Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can | Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can |
Supporting Actress: | |
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt | Kathy Bates, About Schmidt |
Julianne Moore, The Hours | Julianne Moore, The Hours |
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander | Meryl Streep, Adaptation |
Queen Latifah, Chicago | Queen Latifah, Chicago |
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago |
Ensemble: | |
Adaptation | The Pianist |
Chicago | Chicago |
The Hours | The Hours |
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers | Two Towers |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Gangs of New York |
Best Actor: | 2001 |
Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind) | Russell Crowe |
Kevin Kline (Life as a House) | Will Smith |
Sean Penn (I Am Sam) | Sean Penn |
Denzel Washington (Training Day) | Denzel Washington |
Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom) | Tom Wilkinson |
Best Actress: | |
Halle Berry (Monster’s Ball) | Halle Berry |
Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind) | Nicole Kidman (MR!) |
Judi Dench (Iris) | Judi Dench |
Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom) | Sissy Spacek |
Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones’s Diary) | Renee Zellweger |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Jim Broadbent (Iris) | Jim Broadbent |
Hayden Christensen (Life as a House) | Jon Voight (Ali) |
Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast) | Ben Kingsley |
Ian McKellen (LOTR) | Ian McKellen |
Ethan Hawke (Training Day) | Ethan Hawke |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Helen Mirren (Gosford Park) | Helen Mirren |
Dakota Fanning (I Am Sam) | Jennifer Connelly (Beautiful Mind) |
Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky) | Maggie Smith (Gosford Park) |
Judi Dench (The Shipping News) | Kate Winslet (Iris) |
Cate Blanchett (Bandits) | Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom) |
Ensemble: | Best Picture: |
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind |
Gosford Park | Gosford Park |
In the Bedroom | In the Bedroom |
Moulin Rouge! | Moulin Rouge! |
Lord of the Rings | Lord of the Rings |
Best Actor: | 2000 |
Jamie Bell, Billy Elliot | Ed Harris |
Russell Crowe, Gladiator | Russell Crowe, Gladiator |
Benicio Del Toro, Traffic | Javier Bardem |
Tom Hanks, Cast Away | Tom Hanks, Cast Away |
Geoffrey Rush, Quills | Geoffrey Rush, Quills |
Best Actress: | |
Joan Allen, The Contender | Joan Allen, The Contender |
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat | Juliette Binoche, Chocolat |
Ellyn Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream | Ellyn Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream |
Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me | Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me |
Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich | Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Jeff Bridges, The Contender | Jeff Bridges, The Contender |
Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire | Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire |
Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich | Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich |
Gary Oldman, The Contender | Benicio Del Toro, Traffic |
Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator | Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Judi Dench, Chocolat | Judi Dench, Chocolat |
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous | Kate Hudson, Almost Famous |
Frances McDormand, Almost Famous | Frances McDormand, Almost Famous |
Kate Winslet, Quills | Kate Winslet, Quills |
Julie Walters, Billy Elliot | Marcia Gay Harden, Pollack |
Best Ensemble | |
Almost Famous | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Gladiator | Gladiator |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot |
Erin Brockovich | Erin Brockovich |
Traffic | Traffic |
Best Actor: | 1999 |
Denzel Washington, The Hurricane | Denzel Washington, The Hurricane |
Jim Carrey, Man on the Moon | Sean Penn, Sweet and Lowdown |
Russell Crowe, The Insider | Russell Crowe, The Insider |
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Flawless | Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story |
Kevin Spacey, American Beauty | Kevin Spacey, American Beauty |
Best Actress: | |
Annette Bening, American Beauty | Annette Bening, American Beauty |
Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart | Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart |
Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry | Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry |
Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair | Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair |
Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds | Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Cameron Diaz, Being John Malkovich | Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown |
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich | Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich |
Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry | Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry |
Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted | Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted |
Julianne Moore, Magnolia | Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Michael Caine, Cider House Rules | Michael Caine, Cider House Rules |
Tom Cruise, Magnolia | Tom Cruise, Magnolia |
Chris Cooper, American Beauty | Jude Law, Talented Mr. Ripley |
Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile | Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile |
Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense | Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense |
Ensemble: | Best Picture: |
American Beauty | American Beauty |
Being John Malkovich | Sixth Sense |
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules |
The Green Mile | The Green Mile |
Magnolia | The Insider |
Best Actor: | 1998 |
Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful | Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful |
Joseph Fiennes in Shakespeare In Love | Edward Norton in American History X |
Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan | Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan |
Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters | Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters |
Nick Nolte in Affliction | Nick Nolte in Affliction |
Best Actress: | |
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth | Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth |
Jane Horrocks in Little Voice | Fernanda Montenegro in Central Station |
Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love | Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love |
Meryl Streep in One True Thing | Meryl Streep in One True Thing |
Emily Watson in Hilary and Jackie | Emily Watson in Hilary and Jackie |
Supporting Actor: | |
James Coburn in Affliction | James Coburn in Affliction |
Robert Duvall in A Civil Action | Robert Duvall in A Civil Action |
David Kelly in Waking Ned Devine | Ed Harris in The Truman Show |
Geoffrey Rush in Shakespeare In Love | Geoffrey Rush in Shakespeare In Love |
Billy Bob Thornton in A Simple Plan | Billy Bob Thornton in A Simple Plan |
Supporting Actress: | |
Kathy Bates in Primary Colors | Kathy Bates in Primary Colors |
Brenda Blethyn in Little Voice | Brenda Blethyn in Little Voice |
Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love | Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love |
Rachel Griffiths in Hilary and Jackie | Rachel Griffiths in Hilary and Jackie |
Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters | Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters |
ENSEMBLE | Best Picture: |
Life Is Beautiful | Life Is Beautiful |
Little Voice | The Thin Red Line |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan |
Shakespeare In Love | Shakespeare In Love |
Waking Ned Devine | Elizabeth |
Best Actor: | 1997 |
Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting | Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting |
Robert Duvall in The Apostle | Robert Duvall in The Apostle |
Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold | Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold |
Dustin Hoffman in Wag the Dog | Dustin Hoffman in Wag the Dog |
Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets | Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets |
Best Actress: | |
Helena Bonham Carter -Wings Of the Dove | Helena Bonham Carter – Wings Of the Dove |
Judi Dench in Mrs Brown | Judi Dench in Mrs Brown |
Pam Grier in Jackie Brown | Julie Christie in Afterglow |
Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets | Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets |
Kate Winslet in Titanic | Kate Winslet in Titanic |
Robin Wright Penn in She’s So Lovely | |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Billy Connolly in Mrs Brown | Robert Forster in Jackie Brown |
Anthony Hopkins in Amistad | Anthony Hopkins in Amistad |
Greg Kinnear in As Good As It Gets | Greg Kinnear in As Good As It Gets |
Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights | Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights |
Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting | Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Kim Basinger in L. A. Confidential | Kim Basinger in L. A. Confidential |
Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting | Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting |
Alison Elliott in The Wings Of the Dove | Joan Cusack in In & Out |
Julianne Moore in Boogie Nights | Julianne Moore in Boogie Nights |
Gloria Stuart in Titanic | Gloria Stuart in Titanic |
Enemble: | Best Picture: |
Boogie Nights | As Good As It Gets |
The Full Monty | The Full Monty |
Good Will Hunting | Good Will Hunting |
L. A. Confidential | L. A. Confidential |
Titanic | Titanic |
Best Actor: | 1996 |
Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire | Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire |
Ralph Fiennes in The English Patient | Ralph Fiennes in The English Patient |
Woody Harrelson in The People vs. Larry Flynt | Woody Harrelson in The People vs. Larry Flynt |
Geoffrey Rush in Shine | Geoffrey Rush in Shine |
Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade | Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade |
Best Actress: | |
Brenda Blethyn in Secrets & Lies | Brenda Blethyn in Secrets & Lies |
Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room | Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room |
Frances McDormand in Fargo | Frances McDormand in Fargo |
Gena Rowlands in Unhook the Stars | Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves |
Kristin Scott Thomas in The English Patient | Kristin Scott Thomas in The English Patient |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Hank Azaria in The Birdcage | Edward Norton in Primal Fear |
Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire | Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire |
Nathan Lane in The Birdcage | Armin Mueller-Stahl in Shine |
William H. Macy in Fargo | William H. Macy in Fargo |
Noah Taylor in Shine | James Woods in Ghosts Of Mississippi |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces | Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces |
Juliette Binoche in The English Patient | Juliette Binoche in The English Patient |
Marisa Tomei in Unhook the Stars | Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Secrets & Lies |
Gwen Verdon in Marvin’s Room | Barbara Hershey in The Portrait Of a Lady |
Renée Zellweger in Jerry Maguire | Joan Allen in The Crucible |
Enemble: | |
The Birdcage | Jerry Maguire |
The English Patient | The English Patient |
Marvin’s Room | Secrets & Lies |
Shine | Shine |
Sling Blade | Fargo |
Best Actor: | 1995 |
Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas | Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas |
Anthony Hopkins in Nixon | Anthony Hopkins in Nixon |
James Earl Jones in Cry, The Beloved Country | Richard Dreyfuss in Mr. Holland’s Opus |
Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking | Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking |
Massimo Troisi in Il Postino | Massimo Troisi in Il Postino |
Best Actress: | |
Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking | Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking |
Joan Allen in Nixon | Sharon Stone in Casino |
Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas | Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas |
Meryl Streep in The Bridges Of Madison County | Meryl Streep in The Bridges Of Madison County |
Emma Thompson in Sense and Sensibility | Emma Thompson in Sense and Sensibility |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Kevin Bacon in Murder In the First | Tim Roth in Rob Roy |
Kenneth Branagh in Othello | James Cromwell in Babe |
Don Cheadle in Devil In A Blue Dress | Brad Pitt in 12 Monkeys |
Ed Harris in Apollo 13 | Ed Harris in Apollo 13 |
Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects | Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Stockard Channing in Smoke | Kathleen Quinlan in Apollo 13 |
Anjelica Huston in The Crossing Guard | Joan Allen in Nixon |
Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite | Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite |
Mare Winningham in Georgia | Mare Winningham in Georgia |
Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility | Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility |
Ensemble: | Best Picture: |
Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 |
Get Shorty | Babe |
How To Make An American Quilt | Braveheart |
Nixon | Il Postino |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility |
Best Actor: | 1994 |
Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption | Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption |
Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump | Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump |
Paul Newman in Nobody’s Fool | Paul Newman in Nobody’s Fool |
Tim Robbins in The Shawshank Redemption | Nigel Hawthorne in The Madness Of King George |
John Travolta in Pulp Fiction | John Travolta in Pulp Fiction |
Best Actress: | |
Jodie Foster in Nell | Jodie Foster in Nell |
Jessica Lange in Blue Sky | Jessica Lange in Blue Sky |
Meg Ryan in When a Man Loves a Woman | Winona Ryder in Little Women |
Susan Sarandon in The Client | Susan Sarandon in The Client |
Meryl Streep in The River Wild | Miranda Richardson in Tom & Viv |
Best Supporting Actor: | |
Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction | Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction |
Martin Landau in Ed Wood | Martin Landau in Ed Wood |
Chazz Palminteri in Bullets Over Broadway | Chazz Palminteri in Bullets Over Broadway |
Gary Sinise in Forrest Gump | Gary Sinise in Forrest Gump |
John Turturro in Quiz Show | Paul Scofield in Quiz Show |
Best Supporting Actress: | |
Jamie Lee Curtis in True Lies | Rosemary Harris in Tom & Viv |
Sally Field in Forrest Gump | Helen Mirren in The Madness Of King George |
Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction | Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction |
Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway | Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway |
Robin Wright Penn in Forrest Gump | Jennifer Tilly in Bullets Over Broadway |
I don’t think the Academy will keep that same lineup for Best Actress, I think Adele Exarchopoulos could make it in over Judi Dench. And Dallas Buyers Club is a huge surprise, and obviously has a lot of love, I guess it could sneak in to now? Then what gets left out? It seems like Her has a lot of love too. And either 12 Years, The Butler or American Hustle wins best picture. I see 10 nominees in the near future.
@Sasha, out of curiosity, what are your top 10 for the year? Are you going to post a proper list?
people shouldnt be shocked about forest whitaker. hes only been listed in the top 5 on this site for the past three months lol.
Are we under the impression that it now requires a SAG Ensemble nomination to have any chance at winning Best Picture? I don’t want to live in a world in which that is true. Some films just don’t have large enough casts to have a shot. I truly hope Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Wolf of Wall Street still have a shot to win BP. If not, just hand 12 Years a Slave the Oscar now.
PS – Dallas Buyers Club scored a HUGE boost today.
This is going to be a strange awards season and I think Sag and Oscar will be very different. First test of that will be tomorrow: The Golden Globes will go in a totally different direction.
Her, Gravity, Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis will play a big role, along with 12 Years a Slave. I think one of them will be the BP winner this year.
Last year big winner with Argo was Life of Pi which was considered out of the race several times during the season.
Yet another end of year crushing schedule:
Dec. 13: Saving Mr. Banks
Dec. 14: The Hobbit
Dec. 19: American Hustle
Dec. 20: Inside Llewyn Davis
Dec. 21: Walking with Dinosaurs (if reviews are good)
Dec. 25: August Osage County
Dec. 26: Wolf of Wall Street
Dec. 27: The Past
(Don’t knew yet about availability of “Her”)
Here’s to those of us “of a certain age”:
8 of the 10 actresses are over 40.
6 of the 10 actors are over 40.
Of the remaining 6, the only ones under 30: Abdi & JLaw.
Also, @Marshall, why would this necessarily affect (effect?) the nomination committee?
According to the SAG website:
I think before the merger SAG had around 100K members and AFTRA 60K, so SAG-AFTRA now probably has 160K members oveall. If the nomination committee is selected using random sampling, then a significant fraction of the nomination committee would certainly have belonged to AFTRA pre-merger. And it appears all you have to do to be eligible is pay your dues on time.
Having a substantial AFTRA bloc on the nominations committee could definitely play a factor in its decision making. But we really don’t have enough information to claim, as O’Neil does, that there is now an increased divergence between SAG and Oscar regarding acting nods.
P.S. Arrows and aardvarks. 😉
What I think happened is that no one wanted to watch the movie.
I’m sorry. I had to stop reading this article immediately because this made me laugh so hard. If nobody wants to watch a certain movie, then that movie doesn’t belong in the Oscar race. I haven’t seen it so I have no clue if it’s worth anything. But people having a desire to a see a film should be the first marker of whether it belongs on any kind of year’s best list or awards chatter. You can’t have a movie without an audience. Kinda like the tree falling in the forest thing.
*goes back to reading*
Would sentiment for Dench from the Academy trump Blanchett’s tour de force? I haven’t seen Philomena, but if those same 5 women line up for Oscar, it seems to me that it would be between those 2. I can’t believe four years on we are thinking Sandra Bullock is in line for a 2nd Best Lead Actress Oscar. One seemed unlikely…….
DiCaprio is perhaps the most likely to win a Globe for Actor (comedy), correct? Bruce Dern would be in Drama? That could help.
Whitaker was great, but really should not be a contender alongside Redford, Hanks, and DiCaprio for those final two precious spots. Haven’t seen Wolf yet, but it would sure be sad if DiCaprio missed out again. (I would never be too upset to see Hanks nominated… I was so moved by his performance.) And “All Is Lost” is my favorite (fictional) movie this year so I’m rooting for Redford too. Agh agonizing!
I suppose my final predictions see Redford and DiCaprio get those final two spots, but that could be wishful thinking.
Vily, WOLF should do well at the Globes (HFPA has seen it = fact). I expect 5 nominations (pretty much all it can get): Motion Picture (Comedy), Director, Actor (Comedy), Supporting Actor and Screenplay. Hill seems to be the most vulnerable, because dramas and comedies are not separated in supporting categories.
Fun thing is that HFPA has no problem filling Comedy -categories this year – as there are many great ones to choose from. But… let’s see if they still find a questionable one (like The Tourist) somewhere.
I think Blanchett is, at this point, as much of a lock as Helen Mirren was in 2006 and Day- Lewis last
Usually having won before would be a con. But it seems that her fellow nominees will be all previous winners. So, her only possible weakness is moot.
1980?
Best Picture, my choices
1. RAGING BULL, Martin Scorsese
2. STAR WARS EPISODE V: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK, Irvin Kershner
3. THE SHINING, Stanley Kubrick
4. ATLANTIC CITY, Louis Malle
5. TESS, Roman Polanski
——-if expanded field——–
6. THE ELEPHANT MAN, David Lynch
7. KAGEMUSHA, Akira Kurosawa
8. ALTERED STATES, Ken Russell
9. ORDINARY PEOPLE, Robert Redford
10. SPETTERS, Paul Verhoeven + THE LAST METRO, Francois Truffaut (tie!)
Booby Prize: HEAVEN’S GATE
Duvall got a SAG nomination for Get Low and missed at the Oscars. Eastwood actually missed a SAG nod for Million Dollar Baby and then was nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars.
So now that Redford was shut out, we start to hear from people who actually saw his film and weren’t impressed by his performance. The man was never a great actor, but it surprises me that he could be in the conversation yet miss, especially to The Butler. What is the deal with Redford?? He’s brilliant or he does nothing? I can’t get over the widely divergent opinions. I refuse to predict a nomination for Whitaker though because he did nothing and the movie stinks. Oprah is all it should be getting. I expect Best Picture now too. But I’ll predict anyone at Whitaker’s expense.
And what of DiCaprio? A year ago or more, it was supposed to be the movie to finally win him an Oscar. Then we all wrote him off from the trailer. But in the last few weeks, he suddenly became a “lock” based on advance buzz. Really? I’m sure he’s good, but it looks like more of the same from him. How HEAVY is it for a “comedy”?
When you look at SAG stats, remember that in recent years Eastwood (Gran Torino) and Duvall (Get Low, which I had to look up) had Oscar buzz. Eastwood even had a box office hit. But both missed SAG, and neither recovered. Telling?
Each year is different. Regardless of AFTRA, today’s SAG nominees are mostly consensus choices. Most of them could stick. I won’t be predicting Whitaker, but the rest, including newbies and Gandolfini keeping Hanks from a second nomination, are all fathomable.
but the average correlation between the two lineups has been more like 16/20 since 2000 (80%).
Thanks, let’s hope it’s a below average year!
1980 was an extraordinary year, pardon the pun. I actually wanted The Elephant Man to win, another classic in a year filled with them. Beresford’s Breaker Morant, Alan Parker’s Fame just to name a couple.
Ordinary People’s wins are only controversial in retrospect due to the rise in Raging Bull’s stature over the years. At the time OP was the heavy favorite for Best Picture/Director, and not all the critics were as unanimously effusive regarding Bull back then as they are now.
As a huge Scorsese fan who believes Raging Bull is his best film, I have absolutely zero issues with Ordinary People and Redford winning in 1980. A great film beat another great film for BP. We should all be so lucky to see that happen.
Hey Sasha, I noticed a couple of errors on your list. You have Little Miss Sunshine and Gosford Park labeled as winning the Best Picture Oscar in 2006 and 2001 respectively. I believe that should labeled as The Departed and A Beautiful Mind. Great stuff! I can’t believe Braveheart is the only one to stray away from SAG that much. What a wacky Oscar year that was.
Not sure Zooey about Dern’s sentimental aura, but i’mhappy to stand corrected come next year. I don’t line up with your assessment of Ordinary People and the ‘win’ not ageing well. But that is a matter of each person’s opinion. Few movies have handled grief, trauma and loss as sensitively but non-sentimentally as Ordinary People did. Redford is much more than just a pretty face. His legacy for the industry is far reaching. That i think will play into voters choices.
daveinprogress,
I actually disagree. It would be a stretch for Redford to play the overdue card. The man has two Oscars – the Honorary Award and a directing win that has not aged well. It remains a controversial victory and doesn’t help him much. Unlike Redford Jeff Bridges was a total of zero Golden Globe wins in addition to zero Oscar wins. He was considered a fine actor who would deliver solid to great work and wouldn’t get recognized. He even joked about the HFPA ruining his underrated status by giving him the award. And Redford – who isn’t in the same league as Bridges, let’s face it – has won two Oscars and there isn’t the urge to give him another victory. If there is to be a sentimental choice, Bruce Dern should be the one to benefit.
@Ryan, thanks! That was incredibly informative and sure as shit answers a big question…if it’s true. It sounds true though 🙂
The SAG/AFTRA merge isn’t much of a factor. Last year there was a difference between SAG and Oscar (they had 14 out of 20), but one of these 14 was Wallis, who wasn’t eligible for SAG. And SAG has always been known for WTF nominations.
Just take a look at supporting actress in 1996 (when only Binoche and Bacall received SAG and Oscar nods) or 2001 (when they snubbed Maggie Smith, Kate Winslet and Marisa Tomei, but nominated Cameron Diaz, Dakota Fanning and Judi Dench in The Shipping News).
So there’s always the difference. In the last years it’s 16 up to 19 overlapping nominees, but there are years when they go down. It has nothing to do with the merger.
What does this do for Fruitvale Station’s Oscar chances? Not much i guess. Re AMPAS and Robert Redford, i am getting a Jeff Bridges Crazy Heart vibe. Redford’s name and body of work has immense cache and it’s been 33 years since his Oscar win. Cate is sitting pretty alright.
@Marshall
Abs. right! So we shouldn’t jump to conclusions when it comes to “surprising” SAG noms and snubs and how they might reshape the race, especially in a year as competitive as this one.
A.O. Scott’s Top 10:
1. Inside Llewyn Davis
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Blue Is the Warmest Color
4. Enough Said
5. A Touch of Sin
6. All Is Lost
7. Frances Ha
8. Hannah Arendt
9. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
10. The Great Gatsby/The Wolf of Wall Street/The Bling Ring/Spring Breakers/Pain and Gain/American Hustle
Documentaries
1. The Act of Killing
2. Stories We Tell
3. The Square
4. Let the Fire Burn
5. Cutie and the Boxer
Whether you like it or not, Oprah’s nomination seems to be the major headline in SAG coverage by mainstream media outlets.
O’Neil’s is overblowing the historical overlap between the SAG and Oscar acting lineups before the merger a bit. Sure, there have been a couple of times in which SAG and Oscar matched for 19 out of the 20 acting nominees (2006 and 2009), but the average correlation between the two lineups has been more like 16/20 since 2000 (80%).
Last year SAG and AMPAS agreed on 14 of the 20 acting nominees, so it was lower than the average, but nothing too out of the ordinary – the two groups matched only on 13 nominations in 2001 and 14 in 2003.
Sin
Also, it might be important to note (as Tom O’Neil did on GD) that SAG’s membership changed last year to include AFTRA which includes non-actors! As a result, SAG’s “match-up” rate dropped dramatically last year, going from 90/95% to 70/75%. I guess this could also be the case this year with so many WTFs?
Also, @Marshall, why would this necessarily affect (effect?) the nomination committee?
SAG should give Redford a lifetime achievement award! Oh wait, they already did in 1995… though it looks ridiculous compared to the real one.
The people who voted for the GG nominations tomorrow, will they have actually seen The Wolf of Wall Street? Because it would be a lot more interesting if they did, whether its gets nominated or not.
Marshall, sounds like Pettyfer still had more screen time than Michael K. Williams in 12 Years a Slave. Hell, even Taran Killam wasn’t listed and Scoot McNairy was! I’m wondering who decides who is part of an ensemble…
Hell, even Taran Killam wasn’t listed and Scoot McNairy was! I’m wondering who decides who is part of an ensemble…
Don’t hold me to this, but I believe the actors whose names get listed as primary players in an ensemble are those actors whose names appear in the on-screen credits alone with no other names. (Or else it’s a screen credit with no more than 2 names on screen at one time, I forget) These screen credit placements are part of the negotiations of an actor’s contract on each film.
So who decides? Agents decide, before the movie is even made; as long as producers approve.
Ensemble + 1 Supporting for Hustle… Humph, reminds me of a little movie called Argo!
Also, it might be important to note (as Tom O’Neil did on GD) that SAG’s membership changed last year to include AFTRA which includes non-actors! As a result, SAG’s “match-up” rate dropped dramatically last year, going from 90/95% to 70/75%. I guess this could also be the case this year with so many WTFs?
Ensemble + 1 Supporting for Hustle… Humph, reminds me of a little movie called Argo!
Entirely right. And if American Hustle wins I will cheer on David O. Russell. He really wants this. It’s a sloppy mess of a movie but it has heart, thanks to Lawrence. They abandon Amy Adams half way through but she’s good anyway. I throw up my hands at the Academy nowadays for the kinds of films they pick to win, and the industry consensus for that matter. Clearly my idea and their idea of great are two very different things. As much as I liked American Hustle it’s nowhere near my top ten…
Actually, Carey has two SAG nominations, one from Precious, and now one for The Butler. So it’s more like Carey – 2, Redford – 0. Oy vey.
But in all honesty, I actually really did like The Butler. Despite the distracting circus of historical cameos, Whittaker delivers a fine, commanding performance, showing the strength of grace and civility in inducing change. Honey over vinegar.
I think the more egregious result from this morning is Alex Pettyfer – 1 (for like 2 minutes of screentime), Robert Redford – 0.
Oh you’re right, I forgot about Precious! But I think Mariah has made fewer films than Redford in recent years (and one of hers was Glitter). I guess he needs to partner up with Lee Daniels, the SAG loves him. Even Nicole got in for The Paperboy last year(though in fairness, I liked that performance).
I expect to see Best Picture/Comedy, Best Actor, Best Director and Best Screenplay tomorrow for The Wolf of Wall Street. Anything less than that and its chances deteriorate significantly.
If they vote for Supporting Actor as well, then we can start talking. But the 4 nominations must happen. Also I hope for a O’Russell snub in Directing.
And the NSOFC is coming up so it will be interesting to see who wins that one. I remember the year when Sissy Spacek won NY and Halley Berry won NBR and Berry also won the Oscar and the SAG. It’s rare these days for an actor to win a lead Oscar without a BP nomination, so will Blue Jasmine get a BP nod? Maybe. This years best actress race is trickier than usual.
It will be interesting to see where the BP nods and Best Actress nods line up. And the SAG will really be interesting.Of the actress nominees, all have won except for Thompson. That may not mean anything to the voters, but then again, it might.
Pepper, Mariah Carey was nominated for the cast of Precious so it’s really:
Mariah Carey – 2
Robert Redford – 0
In all fairness, All is Lost had a really tough uphill climb with the SAGs. It would never have gotten Ensemble Cast and an individual nomination was possible but in such a crowded year I can see an oversight. Excluding All is Lost, Redford has only been in maybe 8 or 10 movies since the SAGs have been around and those movies weren’t heavy hitters. “The Company You Keep”, “An Unfinished Life”, “Lions For Lambs”…and those were the only movies in the last 8 years (again excluding All is Lost)
Vanessawhitehawk, remember Sally Hawkins winning all the critics awards for Happy-Go-Lucky? Or Albert Brooks for Drive? Kathryn Bigelow winning director awards for Zero Dark Thirty? Granted they were all snubbed and I don’t think Cate will be but those are examples of early winners. Every once in a while you get someone like Marcia Gay Harden coming out of nowhere and winning for Pollock…or you get Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side getting no precursors, maybe except for Washington DC critics and then taking the GG, SAG, Critics Choice and Oscar. If I remember from that year you had Meryl Streep and Carey Mulligan winning all the awards. I’m sure Blanchett will win it this year but let’s not pretend like shit doesn’t happen.
Blanchett is sweeping everything and it won’t even be close.
Wrong. Blanchett lost the NBR.
Total career SAG nominations:
Mariah Carey – 1
Robert Redford – 0
As for Blanchett, I HOPE she’s a lock. But I’m not convinced. The only person I think is a lock for a win at this point is Jared Leto. I can’t see anyone getting past him.
“What Sasha said is true. The only things Blanchett has won thus far is critics’ awards. Anything can happen b/w now and March 2nd.”
No.
Blanchett is sweeping everything and it won’t even be close. bookmark me, sis.
as I browsed through the SAG to Oscar comparisons, I was horrified anew that Johnny Depp got an Oscar nomination for Sweeney Todd. I think I actually managed to block that from my memory. Because though I’ve been watching the awards race since I was a kid and certain was doing it in 2007, I was aghast when I saw that and had to check it.
Meanwhile, back to this year: I saw All Is Lost. And I loved it. But I don’t know that Redford felt that exceptional to me. The movie felt like a massive feat of directorial achievement, but I didn’t feel that much of a connection to (or understanding of) Redford’s character. I don’t think he was bad by any stretch of the imagination. His performance seemed like a bit of a blank to me, though. Intentionally so, for sure, but it kept me from being dazzled.
Which isn’t to say I love the Actor nominations. I can’t begin to fathom why Whitaker is in this year. I just think he stole Oscar Isaac’s place, not Redford’s. I also would have loved to see Joaquin or Hugh Jackman or Michael Jordan there instead.
I was going to trash his list, but now that you’ve endorsed it, I’m reluctant so let’s meet in the middle, I find it objectionable THE BUTLER #9? But yeah A TOUCH OF SIN looks like something I’m bound to love.
I actually think Inside Llewyn Davis IS sitting pretty right now. But people’s personaly definition of ‘sitting pretty’ is going to be different. I haven’t seen it but ‘sitting pretty’ to me means that it’s showing up in best picture rankings, high on top ten lists, showing up quite a bit in screenplay and cinematography, some director, etc. I have always WANTED it to be a big threat, but am just happy it’s getting some love while a lot…a LOT of other great movies are still looking good as well.
Tomorrow will tell a lot about ILD. If it gets best pic nom in comedy with the lineup of other contenders, that’s impressive. if it gets best pic and director, that seriously means it’s sitting pretty. if it gets pic, director, actor, screenplay and maybe even supporting actor (not gonna happen but i can dream), then it’s a serious contender.
Still dealing with TIME Person of the Year.
As a fellow Argentinean/Argentinean/Catholic myself I can live with that choice. He’s really charming. But I do know where you’re coming from.
Partial to AO Scott’s list, myself, but both are interesting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/15/movies/a-o-scotts-top-movies-of-2013.html?src=recg
Manolha Dargis just put together the best list of any major critic so far! Remarkable choices, what a brilliant critic she is, and she didn’t even include GRAVITY that’s how much I mean it!
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/15/movies/manohla-dargiss-top-films-of-2013.html?hpw&rref=arts&_r=1&
I never bought this Robert Redford is winning. Never. My instinct always told me Bruce Dern was stronger (and a lot stronger) than all the “experts” were predicting. He’s gonna win. 12 Years a Slave did not lose momentum this week. It’s been the winner since October. And it will be the winner in March. American Hustle is not directed by Ben Affleck, Saving Mr. Banks did really bad today and Gravity… well… many of the ones predicting it would win were predicting Redford so…
WHY IS OPRAH WINFREY A LOCK?!?! How about some outrage at that!!
Wait for it, Bryce. Still dealing with TIME Person of the Year.
um lol @ saying that any of the Best Actress ladies can win.
What Sasha said is true. The only things Blanchett has won thus far is critics’ awards. Anything can happen b/w now and March 2nd.
Redford refusing to campaign is hardly the only problem. His character doesn’t change – or if he does, we can barely tell. He plays one note *really* well. Compare that to the Stradivarius playing of Franco in 127 Hours, Bullock in Gravity, and frankly Suraj Sharma of Life of Pi. Playing one note is awesome, but when has it been a recipe for Lead Actor awards? It’s also possible that voters are getting a little bit of sole-survivor fatigue, based on those movies and others.
I think All is Lost should have gone for an ending more commensurate with its title. I think a more Margin-Call-like cynicism might have moved the hipster voters closer to it. As it is, it’s neither fish nor fowl, not for the avant-garde crowd nor the mainstream.
um lol @ saying that any of the Best Actress ladies can win.
The award is Blanchett’s and it has been for months now. Nothing has changed.
REPENT LATER: About to wish for nominations for movies I haven’t seen (Yeah, sue me)
For tomorrow what I want to see:
-No nominations for THE BUTLER (I guess they must have Oprah, fug!)
-Oscar Isaac nominated
-Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill nominated
-Joaquin Phoenix nominated
-For director I want Joel & Ethan Coen, Alfonso Cuaron, Spike Jonze all nominated
-Richard Linklater nominated (I don’t care where!)
-Daniel Bruhl nominated (or James Franco, I know it’s not happening but it should!)
WHY IS OPRAH WINFREY A LOCK?!?! How about some outrage at that!!
FYC: Paulina Garcia, Tye Sheridan, Jake Gyllenhall, Miles Teller, The true and legendary ensemble of THE WORLD’S END, Shailene Woodley, John Gallagher, Jr., Nicole Kidman, Mia Wasikowska, Tahar Rahim, Rachel Weisz, George Clooney,
Inside Llewyn Davis is hardly sitting pretty right now. Her stole it’s thunder in critics circles and now it has been completely shut out by the acting guild. It may get a picture nom at Globes but even that is not a lock in competitive comedy field. Davis is doing anything BUT sitting pretty.
Thanks for clarifying Sasha! Makes sense. I am seeing it tomorrow night in a private screening and have a feeling it will be a movie I personally love but would also understand it not winning a bunch of awards.
It’s odd that we saw one contest between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep — and Sandra won. Now we’re going to get a repeat?
I do think that Cate Blanchett is more than just ‘in the lead’. I think Best Actress is the one category that’s absolutely locked in to the Oscars, almost with a Daniel Day Lewis inevitability.
^ How have you seen WOWS already?? And Her?
American Hustle is so mediocre. I enjoyed it but stacked up against this competition? It’s just not in the same league as Her, 12 Years, Gravity, Wolf, Nebraska…
You incorrectly mentioned that AMERICAN HUSTLE only received an ensemble nomination and NO acting nods. Do you not see Jennifer Lawrence’s name listed in the supporting actress list that you posted?
Thanks for the correction – someone on Twitter asked me that question and I was responding but yes of course….
First, JLaw was nominated so it wasn’t just ensamble for Hustle. But curious about your ‘inexplicably’ comment. I thought you liked American Hustle but that comment makes it sound like it for sure will get a nomination but you think it’s so bad it shouldn’t. Or am I reading that all wrong?
I do like American Hustle a lot. I just don’t think it’s better than the best films of this year. Not saying it’s bad – a lot of people love it. I dug the performances but need to see it again to understand what happened in it. Inexplicable because the word of mouth coming out of my screening was that it was good but not “awards material.” Remember Anne THompson’s piece? But it hit big with the critics and looks to be a strong contender anyway.
Anyone who wants to be cool and talk calmly with me about this I welcome it. But act like a troll and your comment will be deleted.
Hi, one quick correction – Jennifer Lawrence scored a nom for American Hustle
Good analysis, just wanted to note American Hustle got ensemble + Jennifer Lawrence noms.