The BAFTA, British Academy of Film and Television Arts, will be announced via livestream on January 8th. You’ll have to figure out what that time will be in your own time zone as I can’t even figure out my own (it’s my tragic flaw). The BAFTA have become much more like Oscar over the years since they changed their date from after to before the Oscars (around the year 2000). They really do seem to mirror the Oscars some years, especially last – when Ben Affleck and Argo took their top awards. Emmanuelle Riva won Best Actress.
This year, the BAFTA, I expect, will go ass over elbow for American Hustle, as the American critics apparently have. The Brits seem to get Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street more than the American critics. Reception here has been mixed.
You have to go back to 2007 to find a year when the Academy did not match Best Picture when they chose Atonement over No Country for Old Men. Since then, the two groups have agreed.
The voting procedure changed last year so that certain branches do the nominating and the entire body does the voting for winners, just like the Oscars. You can read the voting rules at the end of this article.
I do expect one or two surprises in the lineup this year. That’s mainly due to this being such a competitive year all around that it’s been a bit difficult to find a clear consensus. Although with BAFTA there are only five Best Picture nominees. That makes it a little easier. To which, my predictions.
Best Film
Gravity
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alt. Philomena (which I think will get in but…)Her, Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Alt. Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street, Christian Bale, American Hustle
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
alt. Adele Exarchopoulis, Blue is the Warmest Colour
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alt. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Alt. Scarlett Johansson, Her
Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street
David O. Russell, American Hustle
That is about all I can muster. But I’d love to hear what you readers think will be nominated.
BAFTA rules
Round One voting – nominations
- All voters vote for the nominations for Best Film, Leading Actor, Leading Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress;
- The relevant chapter votes for the nominations for Director, Original Music, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Sound, Special Visual Effects, Costume Design, Make Up & Hair, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay;
- In Animated Film, Documentary, Film Not in the English Language and Outstanding British Film only members of the relevant opt-in chapter vote for the nominations;
- Voters may vote for up to five films/individuals per category (three for Animated Film and Documentary *). They should abstain in any category where they feel unqualified to vote or where they have not seen a considerable number of films;
- The five films (three in Animated Film and Documentary *) in each category with the highest number of votes will be the nominations;
- Voters are asked to rank their votes from one to five. These rankings will be applied in the event of a tie. If, following ranking being applied, there remains a tie, more than five nominations may be listed (three in Animated Film and Documentary *);
- The results are scrutinised by BAFTA and its scrutineers to ensure there are no anomalies prior to the activation of Round Two voting. This includes the placement of individuals within the correct performance categories (see page 12).* Unless BAFTA’s Film Committee has determined that five nominations will be given, in which case voters will have up to five votes for the Documentary category and five nominations will be listed – see page 14.Round Two voting – winners
- All voters vote for the winner of Best Film, Leading Actor, Leading Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Music, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Sound, Special Visual Effects, Costume Design, Make Up & Hair, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay;
- Members of the relevant opt-in chapter vote for the winners of Documentary, Film Not in the English Language, Outstanding British Film, Animated Film, British Short Film and British Short Animation;
- Voters must abstain in a category if they have not seen all of the nominated films in that category, or if their knowledge of advancements in that craft is not up-to-date;
- Voters cast one vote each; the film/individual receiving the most votes is the award winner.
The announcements are at 11:35PM PST tonight. http://www.bafta.org/film/awards/nominations-announcement,2537,BA.html
*dull to me. Sorrh
I saw WOWS the other day. The theater was not very crowded. There were a couple teenage girls, but otherwise mostly older couples or young adult men. There was light laughter. No one walked out in disgust. I know my anecdote means no more than the reports of walkouts, but I find these controversies and the public’s supposed reaction to them to be blown out of proportion.
WOWS is a terrific film, and I can see why Sasha is pimping it. It won’t win, but it has the staying power of a Social Network or a TWBB, dare I say. At the very least, the film, Marty, Leo, and Jonah should all score nominations, and I would give it wins for the script (over my dear Philomena; I think 12YAS was more a directorial and acting triumph) and editing (Thelma is just incomparable; even if the film was long, it never felt too long or dull me to).
Honestly it should have a great shot at editing. 12YAS’s editing was criticized by some and the passage of time wasn’t felt. Gravity was mostly long takes. Hustle was beautifully composed but less elaborate visually than WOWS.
Adele is so hopeless. she has no chance.
Cate Blanchett
Judi Dench
Emma Thompson
Meryl Streep
Sandra Bullock
alt. Berenice Bejo
I know “Wolf of Wall Street” is bound to offend people but I wasn’t that offended! I saw it last night in Houston and the audience was packed and it got lots of laugh from people. Call it my generation or having watched movies well beyond my years at an early age, but I didn’t find it controversial at all. I think (at times) it feels like it is glamorizing the lifestyle of the sick and moral-less people but the message as a whole is that this lifestyle is fucked (excuse my French)!! Jordan Belfort lost a lot and you can see him unfolding throughout the movie and losing himself in the process. As far as walking out, no one walked out but I did tell my significant other that his mother SHOULD not see this movie! LOL. It is not for everyone but man do I find this movie haunting me today. Sasha was right: my favorite movie of the year! I’m hoping that Scorcese finds himself nominated for an Oscar because the direction was tight and he really drove the story. It never once felt like 3 hours. And my Oscar wish of the season is that Margot Robbie gets nominated. She stole most of the scenes that she was in. I think we are looking at a star as she never once loses her accent in the movie despite being Australian.
Rush will get in best film.
If 12 Years a Slave, directed by a Brit, can’t win Best Picture here, then I don’t see it winning the Oscar for Best Picture either.
^^ Agree.
BTW, WOW is getting raked over the coals because of the F-bombs. Audiences are walking out per nbcnews.
Christophe – Lea Seydoux for Rising Star..! This could be an indication of Adele Exarchopoulos nominated for Best Actress. Interesting…
Bafta Rising Star Nominees were announced today:
Dane DeHaan
Georte MacKay
Lupita Nyong’o
Will Poulter
Léa Seydoux
There’s going to be some big affection for Rush, I think. It seemed to hold on to the box office in the UK and was well admired by critics there. Daniel Bruhl is absolutely getting in for Best Supporting Actor. It could score in several categories, actually.
I agree, Paddy, 12 Years will be a massive hit. Opens on Friday. I was also lucky enough to be at the London film fest premiere, and it felt wonderful to be in that theatre and to be showering McQueen with appreciation for the film. BAFTA has nominated him 3 times before, for Best British film for both Hunger and Shame, and winning Most Promising Newcomer for directing Hunger. BAFTA loves him, and 12 Years will no doubt sweep the BAFTAs.
I’m loving these out-of-left-field picks; I agree that many mentioned will get in. I’m thinking Michael Douglas and Idris Elba is in instead of Redford and Dern, Adèle (or Lindsay Duncan from Le Week-end?) instead of Meryl, Steve Coogan in with Leto, Abdi, Bruhl, and Fassbender, and Hawkins joins Lupita, Squibb, Lawrence and Oprah. Best British Film: Rush, Philomena, The Selfish Giant, About Time, Le Week-end.
Best Film: 12 Years, American Hustle, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Her. Director: McQueen, Russell, Frears, Greengrass, Cuaron.
“This year, the BAFTA, I expect, will go ass over elbow for American Hustle, as the American critics apparently have.”
I don’t personally see that happening, especially since the American critics (and critics groups en masse with some notable exceptions) actually went head over heels for 12 YEARS A SLAVE as they should have. To boot, SLAVE has a considerable high aggregate average at MC than does AMERICAN HUSTLE for whatever that’s worth.
I see McQueen’s filming winning at both the BAFTAs and the Oscars. I want it to happen, and I believe it will happen.
steve, 12 Years a Slave hasn’t been released here yet. But it’ll be a big hit, I’m certain of it. When I saw it at LFF, it was the best-received out of all the 18 films I saw, better than Inside Llewyn Davis (at the UK premiere) and Blue Is the Warmest Colour and The Past.
Best Film:
12 Years a Slave
Her
American Hustle
Nebraska
Philomena
Best Director:
Steve McQueen
Spike Jonze
Stephen Frears
Martin Scorsese
Paul Greengrass
Last year they nominated Michael Haneke instead of Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. I expect some surprises in that category as well – Stephen Frears for Philomena??..
I am also expecting some “Candelabra” love here with nods for both Damon & Douglas.
QUICK OBSERVATIONS
1. Prisoners was a big hit in the UK (No1 for three straight weeks) and so was Rush, so a few unexpected nominations in main categories shouldn’t come as complete surprises, especially in acting and writing. Hugh Jackman is the most viable dark horse here.
2. A few festival hits that weren’t released in the US in 2013, should qualify, like the quiet little British comedy Le Week-End (starring national treasures Lindsay Duncan and Jim Broadbent) and The Railway Man (starring Colin Firth and Nicole Kidman). Any of those actors could come out of nowhere and receive a nod without even qualifying for this year’s Oscar race. Worth mentioning that they are particularly fond of Colin Firth (back-to-back victories, nomination for even Bridget Jones’s Diary)…
3. It is perfectly conceivable that as massive as the competition is in Best Actor, a film only released on television in the US, WILL steal the show in this category at the BAFTAs. Yes, Michael Douglas is a strong possibility…and if they consider Matt Damon in supporting, so is he.
4. They love embracing their own (or at least close enough), so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bill Nighy (About Time) made the cut (he managed to do it even with Love Actually) and even though they have a strong Australian (Blanchett) and two strong British contenders (Thompson, Dench) in Best Actress they can vote for, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t revive the fading buzz for another favorite of theirs : Kate Winslet (Labor Day). Based on this theory further potential surprises in the acting categories : Idris Elba and Naomi Harris (Mandela : Long Walk to Freedom), Felicity Jones and Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman), Steve Coogan (Philomena), Colin Farrell (Saving Mr. Banks), Geoffrey Rush and Emily Watson (The Book Thief), Carey Mulligan (in lead for The Great Gatsby, in supporting for Inside Llewyn Davis), Benedict Cumberbatch (in supporting for either Star Trek or August or most likely a film they are bound to love already, 12 years a slave). I’m also willing to bet Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) WILL make the cut without a hitch.
5. They tend to embrace acclaimed French performances in Best Actress, so Berenice Bejo (The Past) or Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color) wouldn’t be huge surprises, neither would another French lady although with an English language turn : Julie Delpy.
6. Philomena could do exceptionally well here. It is already expected to pick up nods in British film, actress and adapted screenplay, but picture, director, supporting actor are also strong possibilities in my opinion. Saving Mr. Banks in Best Picture could also happen even with only 5 slots.
7. Considering the somewhat overlapping voting body, I firmly believe BAFTA is a rather strong Oscar predictor which had been further proven in recent years when they predicted surprise Oscar nominations – Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) – the other big organizations all but ignored. That’s why it will be important to look for an acting contender with the frustrating combination of a passionate fanbase and lack of precursor support. If such contender makes the cut here, it could mean he/she will surprise (and delight) many with an Oscar nomination. In my opinion the ones who qualify for the ’frustrating combination’ and could benefit the most from a a Bafta nod are Adele Exarchopoulos, Hugh Jackman, Leonardo DiCaprio, Scarlett Johansson, Margot Robbie, Joaquin Phoenix, Oscar Isaac, Idris Elba, Jonah Hill, Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks), Amy Adams (for either film in either category). If ANY of them makes the cut at the BAFTAs, he/she should be seriously reconsidered for the Oscar predictions even if there will be no further proof he/she has wide industry support.
@david: yeay!
@bryce: i think starred up not available this year. It’s release march 21 in UK
Eh Lone Survivor wasn’t half bad. Kind of wish Foster had more to do. Wahlberg is doing fine for himself as an actor and a producer(Prisoners). Does he still occasionally do crap? Sure and yes he needs to find a new collaborator like Russell back in the day. Needs to hit up PTA, James Gray, and Scorsese again.
Yeah, I am sure Wahlberg is thrilled to be promoting Lone Survivor instead of American Hustle! One is a frontrunner for Best Picture and the other is… well… running trailers before American Hustle.
AJBlowing, I would love to see Douglas win the BAFTA… such a great performance. I was disappointed when he didn’t win Cannes and would like to see him get some recognition beyond TV awards.
I see lots predicting McConaughey to miss. Not sure why he is seen as disposable at this pt but it’ll be interesting to see how heavily they go for DBC, as it has done better than expected with the guilds, but BAFTA often matters more.
The Academy digging American Hustle would be no surprise, but I am a little baffled by the critics reception of it. I mean….93 percent on rottentomatoes and 90 on metacritic. It’s almost like the critics made it a Hustle vs. Wolf competition and they felt Russell out Scorsesed Scorsese. Russell was such an interesting voice early on and even with a more mainstream picture like The Fighter was pretty solid maybe because it was written by him. Feels like his writing has diminished. I’m not so sure I’ll be looking forward to his next 5 films where he gives a 1 page outline to Christian Bale, Jennifer Lawrence, Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, Bradley Cooper, and Robert DeNiro and then tells them to act and improvise and roll the cameras. Lucky for him the Academy is mostly an actor’s branch, right? So his movies have become nice wankfests for awards.
Maybe it was good for Wahlberg to have a fallout with Russell after all.
Um, anyone notice out-of-nowhere GRAVITY commercials during football? I guess they better get that Production Design nod because “Now Nominated for 9 Academy Awards” really sounds underwhelming for movie like GRAVITY I mean for whoever wasn’t at all interested back in October. Because they are expanding again, right?
I would love to see Connor Chapman get a bafta nomination for “The Selfish Giant” he was fabulous!!!! Does anyone agree?
Mattoc
Huh???
David, technically you are correct. I did call you David.
And yes, we differ in our approach, but if ST12 is to get any love, it will be for Brie – so you’re approach is better than mine.
The rest of what you say is correct, but redundant, coz I’m fucking with you.
I apologise if I offended you and/or family during this difficult time.
I wanna see the British film SATERRED UP. That trailer is pure sex. In Europe they don’t give a shit about Alexander Payne, but they love the Coens to death, perhaps even more so than in American. I think that kind of proves a point, don’t it? David O. Russell is somewhere in between.
Doniagustan
I agree I would love to see bill nighy get nominated he was fabulous as well as james Franco for “Springbreakers”
I hope Bill Nighy and Lindsay Duncan from About Time get noms for supporting actor & actress. This is too much but i hope About Time also get nom for outstanding british film. Hope it alongside Rush, Philomena, Filth, The Selfish Giant.
Maybe we should be looking for some Behind the Candelabra love. It was released theatrically over there and it’s eligible.
Best Film
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Spike Jonze, Her
Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Eww, please, as much as I love Amy Adams, there need be no upset in Best Actress. (Even if it happens at BAFTA.) let sleeping dogs lie.
Hey. Why’s everybody picking on david? Cut it out.
I think there will be a lot more British interest too. And usually there are some omissions from the usual American market. I’ll post my predictions shortly.
On a side note Sasha, the podcast link is broken. Or is it just me?
Pepper, you beat me to it in reminding everyone about BTC! I think it will be fascinating to see how the film does against the other big hitters, and I could even see Douglas winning the BAFTA for a film not even eligible for the Oscars which would be quite something!
Mattoc
I’m fucking everything up?? Because I don’t agree with your predictions and I’m predicting somethinnng else which may or may not happen so you call me names I thought this site was about movies and the performances in the movies. I have a right to say who I think will get nominated if you don’t like what I say to bad
Redford has no chance at the BAFTA nod which is why in fifth I have Bale as he is british and if the embrace the film he can easily get nominated (Affleck got nominated for Argo for acting and he is not even british). In actress I think Streep is struggling and the last spot will be Adele v. Adams who is my prediction because again if they like the film she can get in and Adams has three BAFTA noms to her name. Also Streep has been snubbed by BAFTA before and the film doesn’t seem as BAFTA strong.
As I’ve said before, Short Term 12 is better than one performance ( David, you’re fucking everything up)
It’s a complete movie, full of very good performances, really well told, beautifully shot and brilliantly directed. The topic is as important ad anything else going around.
If you’re going to single anyone out, start with the director.
I’m not sure why it isn’t featuring more prominently so it’s a safe bet it won’t figure here or Oscar.
Maybe it’s missing a few Hans Zimmer horn instruments and another ‘estabished and respected’ supporting player to validate it?
12YAS will win this one, but Russell will bustle his film to an Oscar.
I would love a Paulina Garcia nomination, if it’s eligible…
Paddy
I expect Brie Larson to get a bafta nomination do u think the baftas will give Short Term 12 some love???
Ha – you were answering my question before I asked it, Paddy
What was the reception for 12 Years over there? Perhaps it didn’t connect with audiences or critics. Has BAFTA embraced McQueen’s previous work?
Philomena, on the other hand, may have fared better.
Gravity is safe, and I think they’ll go for Jasmine, Her, and definitely American Sweetheart.. er..Hustle. I’ll be surprised if Wolf or Llewyn make a splash (unless one of you on the other side of the pond can set me straight – Paddy, perhaps?)
Adele Exarchopoulos is a strong call. But omitting Daniel Bruhl is not – Rush was a much bigger hit here in the UK than in the US, and BAFTA does like to honour European stars. All in all, Sasha, I’d say your predictions look a little safe, closer to what I’d expect from the Academy or the guilds. BAFTA tends to throw up a few baffling surprises.
Coogan would really have to be lead. He would deserve it far more than Redford.
Please Leo and Philomena.
How can you predict against McConaughey?
Please no Redford and let this be the tell that he misses Oscar. He just doesn’t deserve it for that film. And it’s too strong a year.
I won’t be surprised by Daniel Bruhl, but I still won’t predict him for Oscar.
Are there no LONGLISTS this year? I love them.
And are there any films that aren’t eligible?
Also don’t forget Behind the Candelabra, Michael Douglas, etc. are eligible in the film categories, last I heard.
You’re forgetting about Behind the Candelabra, which was released theatrically in the UK. I’m guessing it will figure at the BAFTAs. Michael Douglas is a good bet for Actor (Damon may be nominated as well, but I’m not sure in what category), and Soderbergh may be nominated in Director.
I’m thinking Nebraska is snubbed all around.
I think if Scarlett Johansson gets in anywhere, it’s here. As well as Adele Exarchopoulos (they love their French girls). BAFTA nominated Eddie Murphy for Shrek, so I think Johansson has a good shot.
I also think Spike Jonze is a good bet as well. The biggest question marks for me is Captain Phillips and Philomena. Judi Dench and Tom Hanks are sure things, but what about everything else?
Oh and *snap* Daveylow, I see we’re on the same page.
Oh for an edit button to fix those typos.
To be eligible for BAFTAs, a film has to be released in the UK in 2013, or before Feb 14 2014 with special submission from the production company. That means, assuming everything up forawards in the US is submitted, no major films should miss out this year. (Her is the closest, opening on Feb 14. Dallas Buyers Club just a week before it). Usually there is a performance of toe that don’t be eligible but not this year.
BAFTA will be all over Steve McQueen and 12 Years- expect it to lead moms and sweep. I think we’ll see plenty of Philomena love too, including Coogan in supporting.
“This year, the BAFTA, I expect, will go ass over elbow for American Hustle, as the American critics apparently have. The Brits seem to get Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street more than the American critics. Reception here has been mixed.”
Someone should write an evisceration piece of the American film critics. They were jumping onboard this film before it was even seen, clambering over the actors and David O. Russell. Everyone seems to be trying to predict the Oscar rather than evaluating films based on their content and quality. Russell is on upward trajectory—and watch, once he gets a win, the critics will be totally over him. Same thing happened with Meryl since her win two years ago. They go with who they want to see win, even if the work doesn’t merit acclaim. And I’m sorry but Wolf of Wall Street totally blows American Hustle out of the water. Some critics have been flat-out wrong and are letting their biases and even worse, media and corporate and industry influence, have an impact on their reviews. How Leonardo DiCaprio isn’t in the equation for a win simply blows the mind. By far his best onscreen work. Scorsese’s best work in decades. In fact, Scorsese said today that the quaaludes scene with Leo was improvised, especially the part when he uses his leg to try to get in the Lamborghini. It was brilliant, and demonstrates what actors SHOULD look for, range, drama and comedy, carrying a 3-hour film. I’ve been critical of Leo before on this site, but I don’t know what is going on with the hype for much lesser work and performances. For me, the two best films were 12 Years and Wolf of Wall Street. Sorry NY film critics.
It will be interesting if Philomena gets Best Picture and Best British Film nominations.
I think Steve Coogan may make Best Supporting Actor.
Does Dallas Buying Club qualify for BAFTAs?
If 12 Years a Slave, directed by a Brit, can’t win Best Picture here, then I don’t see it winning the Oscar for Best Picture either.