The raw results have been tabulated. Thanks a million to Rob Y for giving us another terrific angle on the Oscar process. Rob promises to have a detailed breakdown and spreadsheets ready to examine over the next few days.
Picture:
1) 12 Years a Slave (in first place on 23% of all ballots; Qualified after Round 1)
2) Gravity (in first place on 21% of all ballots; Qualified after Round 1)
3) The Wolf of Wall Street (Qualified after Round 2)
4) Her (Qualified after Round 2)
5) American Hustle (Qualified after Round 2)
6) Inside Llewyn Davis (Qualified after Round 3)
7) Before Midnight (Qualified after Round 3)
Director:
Gravity (in first place on 42% of all ballots)
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Her
American Hustle
Actress:
Cate Blanchett (in first place on 45% of all ballots)
Sandra Bullock
Adele Exarchopoulos
Amy Adams
Emma Thompson
Actor:
Chiwetel Ejiofor (in first place on 27% of all ballots)
Leonardo Dicaprio
Matthew McConaughey
Oscar Isaac
Bruce Dern
Supporting Actress:
Lupita Nyong’O (in first place on 36% of all ballots)
Jennifer Lawrence
Sally Hawkins
Lea Seydoux
June Squib (beat out Scarlett Johansson by half a vote)
Supporting Actor:
Jared Leto (in first place on 34% of all ballots)
Michael Fassbender
Barkhad Abdi
Jonah Hill
Bradley Cooper
Original Screenplay:
Her (in first place on 31% of all ballots)
American Hustle
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue Jasmine
Nebraska
Adapted Screnplay:
12 Years a Slave (in first place on 34% of all ballots)
Before Midnight
The Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
Captain Phillips
Editing:
Gravity (in first place on 46% of all ballots)
The Wolf of Wall Street
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
American Hustle
Cinematography:
Gravity (in first place on 54% of all ballots)
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Her
Prisoners
Totals:
12 Years a Slave – 8
American Hustle – 7
Gravity – 6
The Wolf of Wall Street – 5
Her – 4
Inside Llewyn Davis – 4
Blue Jasmine – 3
Nebraska – 3
Captain Phillips – 3
Before Midnight – 2
Blue Is the Warmest Color – 2
Dallas Buyers Club – 2
Saving Mr. Banks – 1
Philomena – 1
Prisoners – 1
I’m confused about this because, the way I read the rules on the Oscars.org website, it looks like the rank is important in determining Best Picture only. There are rules specific to each category — acting, directing, editing, etc. — that say the five achievements with the most number of votes will be the nominees. Is that how these simulated results were calculated?
Here’s a link to the cinematography rule (the other special rules can be accessed on the menu at the left):
http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/86/rule08.html
I guess we’re about 3 hrs from the nominations, give or take…
Are we having a live stream link?
But otherwise, really stoked for before midnight, just wish Julie Delpy would’ve also gotten. The only performance this year which can rival Cate’s.
Also bummed for Robert Redford.
I voted for Catherine Keener for best supporting actress for Enough said, and I may be the only person who did that. She was enchanting, and gave plenty of warmth to a character you dont really want to like. Marianne, despite being an absolute pain in the ass as a wife, was the one character i really wanted to know in real life.
Will the vote breakdown be available via spreadsheet like it was in past years? =)
I voted ‘Only God Forgives’ for cinematography and editing, but never for a second considered it anywhere else.
I’m the hipster that voted for Olga Kurkulina for her mesmerizing performance in Kick-Ass 2.
I would really like to see how this would turn out if we take these nominations a step further and actually vote.
Ryan, i know you said you didnt think it necessary to vote because the results would be the same but i suspect people would vote differently. For example would WOWS supporters rally and get it a win. Will ScarJo supporters throw their vote to Jlaw or Lupita?
Just a curiousity.
Surprised Hustle did so well!
for the most part, these nominations are pretty dead-on
There are numerous great films this year; they didn’t all garner 40some percent of the vote in several categories. It’s just surprising to see the big margin for Best Director in particular when it wasn’t the top vote-getter for Best Picture.
Well it’s not just popular. It’s also a great film.
These stats are fascinating. I can’t wait to look at the detailed data.
No love for Meryl on here. I wonder if that’s the concensus or if it has to do with the fact that the move only had it’s wide release in the last week.
“So proud that voting for Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Brie Larson and John Gallagher Jr makes me a hipster.”
Yeah, I never thought that being a fan of Robert Redford and John Goodman would make me a hipster.
I am shocked at the consensus, though. Gravity is really that popular?
I voted for Brie Larson. Only because no one from 12 Years Qualified.
I also voted for John Gallagher Jr, whom I’ve loved in everything I’ve seen since I saw him in Spring Awakening. I get super annoyed when people with amazing voices never get to use them in their dramatic roles. Like why in the fuck can’t Mandy Patinkin go undercover as an Iranian Cabaret singer on Homeland?
Eek, I will be so frustrated tomorrow when there are 8 or fewer Best Picture nominees.
Lea Seydoux is a lead performance in my eyes in the same way that Michael Douglas was a lead in Wall Street. Its not quite small enough to be a true supporting performance, although admittedly not as large as Adele’s role. Still, much of the film turns on her character, which to me is a sign of a protagonist.
SPOILER FOR BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR
But saying that hints at a larger issue I have with that film. If it was truly about “La Vie d’Adéle”, then we would have A) witnessed how Adele was able to leave her parents home and movie in with Emma (Did she come out to her parents? Did she lie? We never find out), and B) been there when she sleeps with the guy that ends their relationship. For a film that was so concerned with “being there” for every little detail of this girl’s life, I still find it curious that the film chooses to sit out of two of the most important moments of the story.
How many ballots were there?
I thought that this years Oscars might have less BP nominees but I’m surprised we did it too. I know I didn’t get to do my ballot properly because I still have films I need to see.
AD is generally Russell-bashing so to see AH do so well here makes me feel better about its prospects tomorrow 🙂
Yay for Exarchopoulos!
So proud that voting for Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Brie Larson and John Gallagher Jr makes me a hipster. That’s boss.
Wolf of Wall Street = 6 nominations according to your simulation
No Brie Larson? No ALL IS LOST? Shame on all of you.
(Apologies for the grandstanding.)
Wtf!!!! Brie Larson or Short Term 12 didn’t get any noms
If only these were tommorrow’s results….
To echo Bryce, only 7 BP noms! Is that the lowest number of films in the years AD has been doing this? Passions run high – I wonder how close we’ll come to AMPAS.
Also, I would have loved to see Scarlett get in to Supporting Actress, but not ahead of Squibb! That’s a great, great category this year. I like all five that are there, so if it was recreated tomorrow, I couldn’t even be mad that one of my top 3 wasn’t there. Although, I’d probably nudge Lawrence or Hawkins out to make room to ScarJo, I don’t see that happening!
Thanks Rob Y! I look forward to this every year! It’s always interesting to see how despite the heated debates and potshots back and forth, an “agreeable” consensus can be reached.
I forget…do we usually take the simulation a step further and vote on these nominations? It’d be interesting to see how the final results would shake out. For example…who will all those ScarJo supporter vote for now in Supporting Actress?
Chris Price, I often have trouble with what I see as category fraud, but I’m curious how you see Seydoux as a lead.I feel like she wasn’t in the movie for the first 45 minutes to an hour, and she’s absent for much of the last 45 minutes. Everything in the movie orbits Adele’s performance, and so Seydoux seems almost the quintessential supporting star. How do you see it?
How much I will love to see Before Midnight in best picture category!! Interesting results.
The dialogue between Captain Phillips and his wife towards the beginning of the film is some of the worst, most stilted expository writing I encountered all year in ANY movie. It completely took me out of that movie, and I was pretty sure I was going to hate it at that point. Luckily, once they got on the boat and Greengrass got a head of steam the movie vastly improved. Still, that anyone would want to give that script a mention is beyond me.
Things that are cool about this:
BEFORE MIDNIGHT makes the Best Picture list.
Leonardo Dicaprio AND Jonah Hill both get nods.
Oscar Isaac gets in.
Only 7 nominees for Picture.
Cate Blanchett AND Sally Hawkins both get nods.
——————————————————
Things that aren’t cool about this:
Scarlett Johansson snubbed.
Lea Seydoux is a LEAD performance.
Captain Phillips for Screenplay (WTF?).
Nothing for underdogs like FRUITVALE STATION, MUD, FRANCES HA and THE WORLD’S END.
The Wolf Of Wall Street had 6 nominations, actually (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing), and Gravity only had 5 (Picture, Director, Actress, Editing and Cinematography).
Fascinating! I look forward to reading the vote tallies per round. I can’t but wonder how close Blue is the Warmest Colour got with Adele and Lea both getting in
Since when does an out-of-nowhere vote make you a hipster lol
I am glad Inside llyelyn Davis did so well,should be nominated for director but I am afraid it might not do very well tomorrow my second best film of the year. On the other hand I still do not understand the love for Wolf of Wall Street cannot think of a catagory I think it deserves a nomination .
This shows that consensus is a very big deal, indeed. I’m sure there were a lot of hipsters putting out-of-nowhere votes so that they can escape mainstream, but the nominations were about the same as expected from the Academy.
Wow Only 7?! Highly passionate year? Indicative of things to come? In any case those are great 7 choices. AD kicks AMPAS’ ass so bad.
WOW!!! With what people have said about American Hustle, it comes in 2nd place overall.