My No Guts No Glory:
Big Bang Theory for Comedy Ensemble
Oprah Winfrey for Supporting
Dallas Buyers Club for ensemble
Predictions after the jump.
The SAG awards unfurl tonight as we march towards our consensus for what film will be named best of 2013, one of the best years for cinema we’ve seen in a while. It was such a good year, in fact, that films like Inside Llewyn Davis couldn’t even make the Best Picture cut. You can’t say any dud took its place either. It’s the nine slot problem. Had they kept a solid ten, Llewyn Davis would have been the tenth. Either way, we’re here to talk about actors.
There are a couple of things to know about the SAG at the outset. They nominate by a committee of around 2k. But they vote with a giant consensus of 100,000. They have, by far, the most diverse membership of any of the guilds, which is how both Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer and The Help for ensemble managed to win in 2011. Unlike the DGA, the PGA and Oscar, the SAG actually contains members of color — think about it. Television and film are full of minority players who rarely get a chance at the bigger roles but they sure as shit have a vote, my friends.
But — and this is a big butt – they also tend to award celebrity. While everyone who votes on film awards, I’ll go ahead and include critics this year – specifically the New York and National Society of Film Critics, seem to get a mood boost by voting for celebrities. We like our stars, we humans. That means someone popular tends to trump all. What this could mean heading into the guilds is Jennifer Lawrence could win supporting again after winning at the Globes but then perhaps not win the Oscar. Winning back to back Oscars is a rare feat indeed. Although where Lawrence is concerned, the sky is the limit. To be that pretty and that talented and that young, to have starred in the highest grossing film of 2013 – Lawrence is the prom queen but she’s also beyond reproach. The worst you can say about her is that she’s too young to play the part she plays in American Hustle.
I fully expect Cate Blanchett to triumph in Best Actress. There is a good chance that Matthew McConaughey will win, although there is a tiny chance there could be another surprise, say, Bruce Dern or Chiwetel Ejiofor, but McConaughey appears to have the momentum at this time.
Supporting will be interesting – most are predicting Lawrence to take it. Lupita Nyong’o just won at the Critics Choice but that win won’t impact SAG voters. This one is a toss-up but I suspect they won’t be able to resist Lawrence. American Hustle might win ensemble, which could mean Nyong’o takes Supporting. 12 Years a Slave could surprise and win ensemble, which I am predicting in a moment of insanity. Then Lawrence might win supporting.
Jared Leto has supporting actor wrapped up, tied with a bow, signed, sealed and delivered.
Thus, here are my predictions — hopefully Ryan will add his as well.
BEST ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine –Stone
- Sandra Bullock, Gravity
- Judi Dench, Philomena
- Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
- Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
BEST ACTOR
- Bruce Dern, Nebraska
- Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
- Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club – Stone
- Forest Whitaker, The Butler
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle – Stone
- Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
- Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
- June Squibb, Nebraska
- Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
- Daniel Bruhl, Rush
- James Gandolfini, Enough Said
- Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club — Stone
BEST ENSEMBLE
- 12 Years a Slave — Stone
- American Hustle
- August: Osage County
- Dallas Buyers Club
- The Butler
BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
- All is Lost
- Fast & Furious 6
- Lone Survivor – Stone
- Rush
- Wolverine
TV nominees after the cut:
BEST ACTRESS, Movie/Mini
- Angela Bassett, Betty & Coretta
- Helena Boham Carter, Taylor & Burton
- Holly Hunter, Top of the Lake
- Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
- Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake — Stone
BEST ACTOR, Movie/Mini
- Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
- Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra –Stone
- Jeremy Irons, The Hollow Crown
- Rob Lowe, Killing Kennedy
- Al Pacino, Phil Spector
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
- Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
- Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad –Stone
- Jeff Daniels, Newsroom
- Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
- Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
- Claire Danes, Homeland
- Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
- Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
- Maggie Smith, Downton Abby
- Kerry Washington, Scandal –Stone
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
- Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory
- Julie Bowen, Modern Family
- Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
- Tina Fey, 30 Rock
- Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep –Stone
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
- Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock — Stone
- Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
- Ty Burrell, Modern Family
- Don Cheadle, House of Lies
- Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory
BEST DRAMA ENSEMBLE
- Boardwalk Empire
- Breaking Bad –Stone
- Downton Abby
- Game of Thrones
- Homeland
BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE
- 30 Rock
- Arrested Development
- Big Bang –Alternate
- Modern Family –Stone
- Veep
There’s no doubt that the world is a fan of 23-year-old Lawrence. She won her first Oscar in 2013 for her performance in “Silver Linings Playbook.” Now this time, she could win another one for “American Hustle,” which releases in theaters on Dec. 13.
ENSEMBLE: American Hustle
ACTOR: McConaughey
ACTRESS: Blanchett
SUPP. ACTOR: Leto
SUPP. ACTRESS: Lupita
STUNT ENSEMBLE: Lone Survivor
#NGNG: DALLAS BUYERS takes ensemble
TV:
BEST ACTRESS, Movie/Mini
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
BEST ACTOR, Movie/Mini
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Kerry Washington, Scandal
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
BEST DRAMA ENSEMBLE
Breaking Bad
BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE
Modern Family
#NGNG: Gunn takes actress (drama)
Live stream:
http://www.stream2watch.me/live-tv/tbs-live-stream
NGNG
– Breaking Bad wins every drama award (Ensemble, Cranston, Gunn)
– 30 Rock wins every comedy award (Ensemble, Fey, Baldwin)
– Daniel Bruhl wins best supporting actor
Great article as usual Sasha-
My predictions:
ENSEMBLE: 12 Years a Slave
ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey
ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyong’o
STUNT: Lone Survivor
“You can’t say any dud took [Inside Llewyn Davis’] place either.”
Yes I can….
+1 Chris. “Dud” is a bit rough, but I would have put it (ILD) at number 1 and whoever fell off the truck as a result, tough.
I don’t know if the SAG have ever really been Breaking Bad fans. Here’s hoping, right? Anyway I think 12 Years a Slave might take ensemble. I’m pretty sure Slumdog Millionaire won so I don’t think SAG always picks the one with the most celebrities. One of the best years is when they picked the international cast of Inglourious Basterds.
Ejiofor, Fassbender, Nyong’o. Okay that’s not big enough for them. What about Sarah Paulson? Benedict Cumberbatch? Dano. Giamatti. Garret Dillahunt. Michael K. Williams. Alfre Woodard. Pretty damn impressive.
Ensemble: 12 Years a Slave
Actor: McConaughey
Actress: Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Leto
Supporting Actress: Nyong’o. Maybe Lawrence.
Yeah, any word on a live stream? Would very much appreciate a link, if anybody has one!
I have Lange for Drama Series, All Is Lost for Stunt Ensemble (I’ll probably get this one wrong, though) and American Hustle for Ensemble but, other than that, those are mine as well, Sasha.
And I also think Blue Jasmine is probably the one that missed out due to there only being 9 BP nominees, not Llewyn. Would Llewyn really have been nominated for just Picture and nothing else major, but just two technical awards? I wouldn’t say it’s that kind of movie.
“I can imagine this:
– American Hustle grabs ensemble and people think: “It’s definitely winning BP”.
– 12 Years grabs ensemble and people think: “It might win BP” (after Globes, Critics, SAG… MIGHT).”
Not me – I would definitely have 12 Years as at least a marginal favorite to win Picture if it did pull off the SAG win, no matter where the PGA and DGA went (unless, of course, Russell won the DGA, but that would just make no sense without him also winning SAG Ensemble).
“SAG likes to award actors who are not stars in this particular category.” (Ensemble)
Plenty of stars in each of the last 4 winners… Interesting point, though. Maybe there is a tendency.
“My NGNG are all August-related: Streep, Roberts, and the entire Weston clan for Ensemble.”
Sasha and Marshall seem to know something I don’t, but I still say: never happening!…
Any live stream??
Anybody have word on a streaming link? I’m gonna be sad if I can’t watch live
Official predictions:
Best Ensemble: 12 Years a Slave (Potential upset: American Hustle)
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey (Potential upset: Chiwetel Ejiofor)
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o (Potential upset: Jennifer Lawrence)
I don’t see them being able to leave 12 Years a Slave in the dust for ensemble, especially after giving it three nominations for individual performances and only one for Hustle (and the weakest performance no less). Then there’s the fact that SAG used this category as a Best Picture award last year (let’s be honest, it’s the only way Argo won), so if they do that again, it will most likely be in 12 Years a Slave’s favor.
I can tell you this. One of our talk radio hosts is a SAG member and while he didn’t say WHAT picture he would vote for, he raved about 12 Yrs and asked anybody who saw 12 Yrs to call in.
NGNG
Anna Gunn – Best Actress Drama
Mayim Bialik – Best Actress Comedy
Jim Parsons – Best Actor Comedy
AH is not winning Ensemble. It’s too star-studded and SAG likes to award actors who are not stars in this particular category. Since Pitt is only a cameo, we can call 12YS star-free cast. Fassbender bombed The Counselor, Cumberbatch bombed 5th Estate so no matter what their aggressive PRs are saying, they are no stars and will never be stars, you can take that to the bank. They are character actors who think they have what it takes to be big like Pitt, RDJ, Leo but they don’t and never will and SAG members know this. On top of these two, there are character actors who don’t hallucinate they are something else – Ejiofor, Dano, Paulson, GIamatti and newcomer Nyong’o. These guys vs Batman, Katniss, Hawkeye/Bourne, Lois Lane and soon to be iconic Rocket Raccoon. I’m telling you, blockbuster people ain’t gonna win ensemble.
NGNG – DBC takes it. When you take MM out of equation, it’s populated by the type of low-key actors who won Argo an ensemble last year.
NGNG
Tom Hanks for Best Actor
Emma Thompson for Best Actress
Oprah Winfrey for Best Supporting Actress
Daniel Bruhl for Best Supporting Actor
August: Osage County for Best Ensemble
I agree with the assessment that Llewyn is the missing 10th nominee, although it would be seriously a tough call. At first glance, precursors would have it looking like Blue Jasmine is your nominee, since that film hit the PGA and the WGA and has a Best Actress frontrunner in it. It also got into Supporting Actress which further indicates support from the acting branch. But my gut tells me Llewyn because A) the Coens’ film opened later in the year and critics’ lists were putting it front and center at voting time, b) Llewyn Davis strikes me as more of a “passion” film that is more likely to garner number 1, 2 and 3 votes than Jasmine, c) the fact that it did get into Cinematography and Sound Mixing indicates broader support from the tech branches, and while the acting branch is the largest, that support counts for something.
At the end of the day, I think it would be an insanely tight race between Jasmine and Llewyn, with ILD pulling ahead by the slightest of hairs. Here’s my list of Next Most Likely nominee (aka The Missing 10th Nominee) for 2013 in order from most to least likely:
1. Inside Llewyn Davis (GG Picture nom, BFCA Picture nom, NSFC Best Film, NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, Cannes Grand Prix)
2. Blue Jasmine (PGA nom, WGA nom, basically every Best Actress award)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (PGA nom, NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, BFCA Picture nom)
4. August: Osage County (SAG Ensemble nom)
5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (SAG Ensemble nom)
“You can’t say any dud took [Inside Llewyn Davis’] place either.”
Yes I can, and that dud is called Philomena. Number 47 out of 102 on my list this year. Wasn’t a terrible movie, but it felt distressingly bland and “competent”. I have zero desire to even think about that movie ever again. I’ll be thinking about (and watching) Inside Llewyn Davis for a very long time.
I am amazed that there are still some people here predicting Bruce Dern to win. Don’t get me wrong, I love Nebraska, but no one can top McConaughey this year.
Regarding the question of SAG members of color and their impact: even if many of them choose to honor a movie featuring many minority actors, the votes could be split between The Butler and 12 Years, giving an edge to AH. Of course, nomination-wise, SAG didn’t give AH a lot of love, but the recent momentum should give Hustle the ensemble prize. Otherwise, for tonight I predict Blanchett, Dern, Nyongo and Leto.
“Eat the fucking fish!”
A good NGNG.
Not coincidental that I’m having catfish for lunch today. “Bottom feeders. My favorite.”
The men of Dallas Buyers Club please, Cate and Lupita.
Ensemble American Hustle because it’s Oscar nominated in all acting categories showing there’s already big respect for the project. Plus a whole mess of actors can picture themselves performing similar roles one day and likewise be rewarded.
Had they kept a solid ten, Llewyn Davis would have been the tenth.
I think it would have been Blue Jasmine. Don’t know if Inside Llewyn Davis rly ever had a chance.
NGNG: Gandolfini for Supporting Actor
August for ensemble
Squibb for Supporting Actress
If I had a vote
Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
August: Osage County
Helena Boham Carter, Taylor & Burton
Jeremy Irons, The Hollow Crown
Jeff Daniels, Newsroom
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory
Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory
Downton Abby
Big Bang
Oh, what the hell. NGNG:
Supp Actor: Fassbender
Supp Actress: Nyong’o
Actress: Blanchett
Actor: Ejiofor
Ensemble: 12YAS
(Haha, yeah right… but one can dream!)
My NGNG are all August-related: Streep, Roberts, and the entire Weston clan for Ensemble.
My NGNG are all August-related: Streep, Roberts, and the entire Weston clan for Ensemble.
A good NGNG.
NGNG
Bruce Dern wins Best Actor
Sandra Bullock wins Best Actress
Anna Gunn wins Best TV Actress Drama
30 Rock wins Best Ensemble
Tina Fey wins Best TV Actress Comedy
No guts?
Bruce Dern takes Lead.
Bullock takes Lead.
Oprah takes Supporting.
Abdi takes Supporting.
August takes Ensemble.
NGNG
Michael Fassbender – Best Supporting Actor
Rush – Stunt Ensemble
Bruce Dern – Actor
12 Years A Slave! Go Go Go.
SAG Predictions (because I don’t care anymore)
Best Actor: DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Best Actress: BLUE JASMINE
Best Supporting Actor: DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Best Ensemble: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
NGNG:
GRAVITY wins Best Actress with SAG at their most populist (they do have that side, no?)
Streep wins her 2nd lead actress in a motion picture
NGNG
Anna Gunn – Best Drama TV Actress
Tina Fey – Best Comedy TV Actress
30 Rock – Best TV Comedy Ensemble
NGNG
Emma Thompson
June Squibb
James Gandolfini
P.S. I won’t be shocked if August : Osage County wins something, they clearly loved it. Roberts is the best bet.
Tonight is the night…. to see people finally gettinf off the American Hustle bundwagon after 12 Years wins ensemble.
……or….. maybe not.
It seems to me there is an AH blindness. I can imagine this:
– American Hustle grabs ensemble and people think: “It’s definitely winning BP”.
– 12 Years grabs ensemble and people think: “It might win BP” (after Globes, Critics, SAG… MIGHT).