Producers Guild Award Winners:
Best Picture: TIE! Gravity and 12 Years a Slave
Documentary: We Steal Secrets
Animated Motion Picture: Frozen
Kramer Award: Fruitvale Station
Long-Form Television: Behind the Candelabra
Drama Series: Breaking Bad
Comedy Series: Modern Family
TV Competition: The Voice
Sports: ESPN’s SportsCenter
Children’s TV: Sesame Street
Digital Series: Wired: What’s Inside
Non-Fiction Television: Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown
Live Entertainment and Talk TV: The Colbert Report
===
(earlier:)
The Producers Guild will announce tonight. The party starts around 8pm. The final award of the evening will come around 10pm Pacific time.
The film expected to win tonight is also expected to take the Best Picture Oscar. This, because the Producers Guild, like the Academy, uses a preferential ballot to determine the winner. The only trick is that since the Academy expanded their Best Picture slate in 2009, there hasn’t been a split between PGA+DGA and Oscar. One film has ruled them all up to now. This year might be the exception since there are three strong films vying for the big prize – American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave. So far, the biggest guild, the SAG with 100,000, went for American Hustle. Now, the Producers Guild, with 4,500 members might confirm that choice or they might go another way.
Most of us pundits are waiting for the Producers Guild to decide which film will win Best Picture. I am currently predicting 12 Years a Slave to win Best Picture so I’m also predicting it to win the PGA. But my instincts are telling me American Hustle will win.
Their nominees are:
American Hustle (Columbia Pictures) Producers: Megan Ellison, Jon Gordon, Charles Roven, Richard Suckle
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics) Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
Captain Phillips (Columbia Pictures) Producers: Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features)Producers: Robbie Brenner, Rachel Winter
Gravity (Warner Bros. Pictures) Producers: Alfonso Cuarón, David Heyman
Her (Warner Bros. Pictures) Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze, Vincent Landay
Nebraska (Paramount Pictures) Producers: Albert Berger, Ron Yerxa
Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Producers: Ian Collie, Alison Owen, Philip Steuer
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight Pictures) Producers: Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen, Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner
Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount Pictures) Producers: Riza Aziz, Emma Koskoff, Joey McFarland
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation) Producers: Kristine Belson, Jane Hartwell
Despicable Me 2 (Universal Pictures) Producers: Janet Healy, Chris Meledandri
Epic (Twentieth Century Fox) Producers: Jerry Davis, Lori Forte
Frozen (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures) Producer: Peter Del Vecho
Monsters University (Pixar Animation) Producer: Kori Rae
The television nominees are:
The David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Long-Form Television:
American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
Producers: Brad Buecker, Dante Di Loreto, Brad Falchuk, Alexis Martin Woodall, Ryan Murphy, Chip Vucelich
Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
Producers: Susan Ekins, Gregory Jacobs, Michael Polaire, Jerry Weintraub
Killing Kennedy (National Geographic Channel)
Producers: Mary Lisio, Larry Rapaport, Ridley Scott, Teri Weinberg, David W. Zucker
Phil Spector (HBO)
Producers: Michael Hausman, Barry Levinson
Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)
Producers: Philippa Campbell, Jane Campion, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman
The Long-Form Television category encompasses both movies of the week and mini-series.
In late 2013, the Producers Guild of America announced the Documentary Theatrical Motion Picture, Television Series and Non-Fiction Television Nominations; the following list includes complete producer credits.
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures:
A PLACE AT THE TABLE (Magnolia Pictures)
Producers: Julie Goldman, Ryan Harrington, Kristi Jacobson, Lori Silverbush
FAR OUT ISN’T FAR ENOUGH: THE TOMI UNGERER STORY (First Run Features)
Producers: Brad Bernstein, Rick Cikowski
LIFE ACCORDING TO SAM (HBO Documentary Films)
Producers: Andrea Nix Fine, Sean Fine, Miriam Weintraub
WE STEAL SECRETS: THE STORY OF WIKILEAKS (Focus Features)
Producers: Alexis Bloom, Alex Gibney, Marc Shmuger
WHICH WAY IS THE FRONT LINE FROM HERE? THE LIFE AND TIME OF TIM HETHERINGTON (HBO Documentary Films)
Producers: James Brabazon, Nick Quested
The Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Drama:
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Producers: Melissa Bernstein, Sam Catlin, Bryan Cranston, Vince Gilligan, Peter Gould, Mark Johnson, Stewart Lyons, Michelle MacLaren, George Mastras, Diane Mercer, Thomas Schnauz, Moira Walley-Beckett
Downton Abbey (ITV – United Kingdom; PBS – United States)
Producers: Julian Fellowes, Nigel Marchant, Gareth Neame, Liz Trubridge
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Producers: David Benioff, Bernadette Caulfield, Frank Doelger, D.B. Weiss, Christopher Newman, Greg Spence, Carolyn Strauss
Homeland (Showtime)
Producers: Henry Bromell, Alexander Cary, Michael Cuesta, Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, Chip Johannessen, Michael Klick, Meredith Stiehm
House of Cards (Netflix)
Producers: Joshua Donen, David Fincher, Karyn McCarthy, John Melfi, Eric Roth, Kevin Spacey, Beau Willimon
The Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Comedy:
30 Rock (NBC)
Producers: Jack Burditt, Robert Carlock, Luke Del Tredici , Tina Fey, Matt Hubbard , Marci Klein, Jerry Kupfer , Colleen McGuinness, Lorne Michaels, David Miner, Dylan Morgan , Jeff Richmond , Josh Siegal, Tracey Wigfield
Arrested Development (Netflix)
Producers: John Foy, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Mitchell Hurwitz, Dean Lorey, Troy Miller, Richard Rosenstock, Jim Vallely
Big Bang Theory, The (CBS)
Producers: Bill Prady, Chucke Lorre, Steve Molaro, Faye Oshima Belyeu
Modern Family (ABC)
Producers: Paul Corrigan, Abraham Higginbotham, Ben Karlin, Elaine Ko, Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd, Jeffrey Morton, Dan O’Shannon, Jeffrey Richman, Chris Smirnoff, Brad Walsh, Bill Wrubel, Danny Zuker
VEEP (HBO)
Producers: Simon Blackwell, Christopher Godsick, Armando Iannucci, Stephanie Laing, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Frank Rich, Tony Roche
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television:
30 for 30 (ESPN)
Producers: Bill Simmons, John Dahl, Erin Leyden, Connor Schell
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (CNN)
Producers: Anthony Bourdain, Christopher Collins, Lydia Tenaglia, Sandra Zweig
Duck Dynasty (A&E Networks)
Producers: Deirdre Gurney, Scott Gurney, Mike Odair, Hugh Peterson, Adam Saltzberg, Charlie Van Vleet
Inside The Actors Studio (Bravo)
Producers: James Lipton, Shawn Tesser, Jeff Wurtz
Shark Tank (ABC)
Producers: Mark Burnett, Becky Blitz, Bill Gaudsmith, Yun Lingner, Clay Newbill, Jim Roush, Laura Skowlund, Max Swedlow
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Live Entertainment & Talk Television:
Colbert Report, The (Comedy Central)
Producers: Meredith Bennett, Stephen T. Colbert, Richard Dahm, Paul Dinello, Barry Julien, Matt Lappin, Emily Lazar, Tanya Michnevich Bracco, Tom Purcell, Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Producers: David Craig, Ken Crosby, Doug DeLuca, Gary Greenberg, Erin Irwin, Jimmy Kimmel, Jill Leiderman, Molly McNearney, Tony Romero, Jason Shrift, Jennifer Sharron, Josh Weintraub
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Producers: Hillary Hunn, Lorne Michaels, Gavin Purcell, Michael Shoemaker
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Producers: Scott Carter, Sheila Griffiths, Marc Gurvitz, Dean Johnsen, Bill Maher, Billy Martin, Matt Wood
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Producers: Ken Aymong, Erin Doyle, Steve Higgins, Erik Kenward, Lorne Michaels, Lindsay Shookus
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Competition Television:
Amazing Race, The (CBS)
Producers: Jerry Bruckheimer, Elise Doganieri, Jonathan Littman, Bertram van Munster, Mark Vertullo
Dancing With The Stars (ABC)
Producers: Ashley Edens-Shaffer, Conrad Green, Joe Sungkur
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Producers: Jane Cha Cutler, Desiree Gruber, Tim Gunn, Heidi Klum, Jonathan Murray, Sara Rea, Colleen Sands
Top Chef (Bravo)
Producers: Tom Colicchio, Daniel Cutforth, Casey Kriley, Jane Lipsitz, Erica Ross, Nan Strait, Andrew Wallace
Voice, The (NBC)
Producers: Stijn Bakkers, Mark Burnett, John de Mol, Chad Hines, Lee Metzger, Audrey Morrissey, Jim Roush, Kyra Thompson, Nicolle Yaron, Mike Yurchuk, Amanda Zucker
The following programs were not vetted for producer eligibility this year, but winners in these categories will be announced at the official ceremony on January 19:
The Award for Outstanding Sports Program:
24/7 (HBO)
Hard Knocks (HBO)
Monday Night Football (ESPN)
Real Sports With Bryant Gumbel (HBO)
SportsCenter (ESPN)
The Award for Outstanding Children’s Program:
Dora the Explorer (Nickelodeon)
iCarly (Nickelodeon)
Phineas and Ferb (Disney Channel)
Sesame Street (Sprout)
SpongeBob Squarepants (Nickelodeon)
The Award for Outstanding Digital Series:
Burning Love (http://screen.yahoo.com/burning-love/)
Epic Rap Battles of History (www.epicrapbattlesofhistory.com)
Lizzie Bennet Diaries, The (www.youtube.com/lizziebennet)
Video Game High School (http://www.rocketjump.com/category/vghs)
Wired: What’s Inside (http://video.wired.com/series/what-s-inside)
Joe, you have a lot of wishful thinking going.
If you win SAG and your opponent fails to get an editing nomination then yes, AUTOMATICALLY it’s a close race in my opinion (since nobody has won without that nomination since 1981), because it’s inherently quite unpredictable. Two powerful stats (winning almost every BP award vs. no editing nom) are clashing. To me the editing stat is stronger, but I don’t feel like searching through the history of every critics’ award for every year to prove it – mainly because I’m quite sure as it is. You are, however, welcome to do so yourself in trying to prove the opposite.
And, trust me, I understand everything you said quite well. But yeah, you just don’t agree with my assertion above, and it’s fine. You think Globes and BAFTA’s and critics’ awards (which have far poorer BP-matching records), if won in large enough quantities :), can matter more than the lack of an editing nomination; I think probably not, and surely they can’t make it irrelevant enough to ever make the no-editing movie a lock.
We probably can’t take it any further, because there’s no way for either of us to prove the other wrong. But if you think you can do that, using stats and facts, then I hope you do, because I definitely don’t want to be wrong and not know it!
Hope now you won’t accuse me of not explaining myself properly, though. I can’t make the argument any clearer than that…
Claudiu don’t worry, I don’t mind being called a delusional moron.
I expressed my point: the award season IS the race in my opinion, so the race wasn’t close simply because we know for a fact that BBM won everything and Crash nothing but SAG. You called it a close race but in my opinion you failed to explain why and how. If your argument is if you win SAG then no matter what it’s a close race I simply don’t agree.
Anyway, my point of view don’t seem to come across very well to you so I say let’s call it a day.
New predictions
Best picture: gravity
best director: alfonso cuaron for gravity
Actor: matthew mcgouahney for dallas buyers club
actress: cate blanchett for blue jasmine
supporting actor: jared leto for dallas buyers club
supporting actress: lupita nyongo for 12 years of a slave
Original screenplay: her
adapted screenplay: 12 years of a slave
film editing: gravity
art direction: gravity
Costume design: the greatgatsby
Sound mixing: gravity
Sound editing: gravity
cinematography: gravity
Visual effects: the hobbit: the desolation of smaug
original score: steven price for gravity
original song: ordinary love from mandela long walk to freedom
Animated feature: frozen
Documentary feature: 20000 feet from stardon
documentary short sybject: cave digger
Animated short film: get a horse
Live action short film: the voorman problem
OK, Ryan and Akumax. I apologize! I don’t like fighting any more than you guys do.
But I just hate it when people produce “manufactured” stats and use them to try and show everybody how wrong I was about something…
Plus, today has been kind of hectic for me, with my mom coming over and my finding out a good friend’s father just died. I wasn’t in a particularly peaceful mood. It’s not an excuse (I’ve already sincerely apologized for the insults, which were uncalled for), it’s an explanation.
“I don’t understand what you consider the close race, because neither you nor me can now how many votes made Crash won.
How do you know it was close?”
Really? Then how do YOU know it WASN’T? This isn’t court – I don’t have to prove you wrong any more than you have to prove me wrong. So this is, in fact, a non-argument.
And it’s certainly not an argument for BBM being the favorite, I hope you realize that. If we’re talking final votes tally as evidence of somebody being the favorite (which makes no sense anyway), then Crash obviously had more, since it won.
“it was an upset that surprised everybody.”
I’m glad you know everybody and what they were thinking in 2006… 🙂 I happen to know TONS of people (on IMDb and not only) who thought Crash was going to win.
And this race just got a *hell* of a lot more interesting. 😀 So happy after a very disappointingly predictable last several years.
I still have a feeling Cuaron will take the DGA, and I personally kinda hope he does, but even if he does, I still think 12 Years has a fighting chance for Best Picture.
And I kinda get the feeling this one hurt American Hustle a little bit, which I’m all for. I consider AH a frontrunner in the race, but I genuinely don’t believe it’s BP Winner material.
Claudiu,
thank you for your kind insults.
My moronic argument is to consider the whole awards season as “the race”, Brokeback Mountain dominated that awards season from day one till that last infamous envelope. So the race wasn’t close, it was an upset that surprised everybody.
I don’t understand what you consider the close race, because neither you nor me can now how many votes made Crash won.
How do you know it was close?
Anyway, I don’t want to spend time talking about 2005 2006, I only have the feeling (I’m usually wrong) that sometime it’s statistics according to an agenda and not statistic tout court.
“If I know it’s 12 years and when I see the movie it feels like a few months it is a screenwriter and director problem. It didn’t resonate has “it will never end” at all, to me and to a lot of people i’ve been talking to.
If it is an artistic choice I can say that in my opinion it’s not a good one.”
Well, now you’re finally being fair. That’s exactly what it is. Not a mistake just because you say it is. It’s a choice that works fantastically well for a lot of people (like me and the many others here and in the Academy and other groups that have given it Best Picture in such a strong year) and not at all for others (like you and your friends – you add your own examples of other people it didn’t work for). Who knows who’s right, if anyone?!… But acting like it’s an undeniable “goof” or something is just wrong.
one horrifying indicator of the passage of time to me is to see how strong, fresh and perfectly healthy Patsey looks when we first meet her — but over the course of the movie she’s gradually damaged and beaten down to human wreckage.
Can I ask a favor of everyone?
We’ll all have some heated arguments over the next few weeks, but let’s try to keep name-calling and personal insults out of the discussion pages, alright?
And Patrick – I can’t keep pointing out the same error in logic time and time again. You can keep thinking the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination isn’t relevant for movies like Gravity if you want – I’ll let somebody else explain to you why that’s not how it works and, if they don’t, whatever… I’ve done it too many times this year and I’m sick of it!
“What is wrong with people bringing this up all the time?! The guy makes an artistic choice to try to underline how hopeless his character’s situation is by not clearly showing how much time has passed (which we already know by the end anyway, from the title, so it’s not essential), and how it all just seems like it will never end, like it’s eternal”
If I know it’s 12 years and when I see the movie it feels like a few months it is a screenwriter and director problem. It didn’t resonate has “it will never end” at all, to me and to a lot of people i’ve been talking to.
If it is an artistic choice I can say that in my opinion it’s not a good one.
If I know it’s 12 years and when I see the movie it feels like a few months it is a screenwriter and director problem.
Just so long as you realize this is not a issue that thousands and thousands of other people perceived as a problem.
So perhaps if I felt the passage of time and the producers guild felt the passage of time, and 30 major critics gave the movie a score of 100 (which pretty much means “perfect”) them maybe it’s not a screenwriter problem or a director problem. Maybe it’s a problem unique to relatively few viewers.
Gravity is the film nominated by most branches within the academy this year.
Gravity is a box office huge hit
Gravity has most nominations (tie with American Hustle)
Gravity won PGA
Even when his film doesn’t win Best Picture Cuaron wins Best Director. (GG and Critics Choice)
These are facts that, in my opinion, show how much Gravity is widely liked by the industry; it is the most popular and the less divisive picture among the 3 leading this years Oscar nomination.
Oh, not to mention that your DGA stat is actually moronic, if you think about it – we’re talking about who was the favorite AT THE TIME, obviously, and the DGA and BP Oscar had only matched 5 out of the previous 7 years prior to the Crash year (exceptions: Shakespeare in Love and Gladiator). That is, in fact, the relevant stat, and it’s less than 75% of the time (even if you add 3 more years, going back to the first SAG year, you still only get 80%). Is that seriously what you’re going to throw at me?! Do you seriously think we’re ever working with any stat under 90% when predicting a BP lock? You’re out of your mind! The Editing stat I mentioned is so much more relevant than your pathetic DGA stat it’s not even funny… Especially now that Crash has also done it.
And no movie had ever won that many awards and lost BP before – please!… Apart from the SAG, DGA and PGA (and, if those three don’t go to the same movie, only then the BFCA, Globes and maybe BAFTAs, but those really only help point you in the right direction, they never decide a clear favorite on their own), absolutely no other award is of any relevance whatsoever. But, please, feel free to try and prove to me how good critics’ awards are at predicting Best Picture…
Your claim that Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash wasn’t a close race is simply ignorant and bordering on delusional.
LOL she crazy. If Chiwetel wins on Oscar night, you just know that the film AND McQueen are winning too. You just know.
Just came back from a dinner party with another trained psychic- Judy Bivens. She’s AMAZING! She’s 67, talks like Lucille Ball and sometimes even dyes her hair red (wink)- and she also knows her Vodkas; we had a cold bottle of Grey tonight, over chilled sprite and lot’s of ice.
Judy was saying (and I’ll post her readings for the winners below)- that this year will cause a lot of anguish and surprises; two acting winners will be very unexpected. She says that the only certain winner is Cate Blanchett. She says she often channels Academy members inner-thoughts, and that even Academy President Cheryl Boone communicated that Blanchett will win with over 80% of the votes.
Judy says Best Picture will make a lot of people mad. Some will agree, but that the boards on AwardsDaily and Goldderby will temporarily shut down because of protest and political outcry. Not necessarily because of the film selected, but because how another film just looked so close but couldn’t do it. She says it will be Crash/Brokeback Mountain all over again. Mind you, we had drank about four glasses of Grey already, but this is when psychics are at their most substantial.
Below are Judy Biven’s Psychic Readings for the 2014 Academy Award Winners:
Original Screenplay: Her, Spike Jonze
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Picture: American Hustle
(Sammy)
‘BAFTA will have very little to no influence this year. They predicted terribly wrong and put themselves in a nasty position. Just look at this:
Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 11 (Eleven) Academy Award Nominations
Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 0 (Zero) BAFTA Award Nominations’
Lincoln barely existed to the Baftas. And why they have no credibility to me.
I mean, Akumax, I never said Crash was the favorite (even though it really kind of was, but OK, you can have that one if you can’t accept rational arguments), but to think there wasn’t a close race when the frontrunner hadn’t won all three guilds and wasn’t nominated for Editing is just dumb – there, I said it.
DGA has predicted 9 out of the last 10… Big deal! Editing nom vs. no editing nom has predicted 10 out of 10 (as in nobody has won without it), in fact 32 out of the last 32 years… Wow, you really got me there!…
I’m getting tired of combating shoddy statistical arguments over and over again. Please, people, check your stats before declaring my conclusions wrong… Also – you just said yourself there was OPEN backlash against BBM, as in everybody knew about it. That alone is an argument for it having been a close race.
Jerry – OK, so they won’t put it 1st a lot, but they might just put it 2nd enough times, and if Gravity and Slave are divisive enough, that simply means it wins.
I say Hustle has the actors because in recent years SAG has voted for the Best Picture rather than the best ensemble. Argo and Slumdog especially. So if they really like Slave, they could’ve given it Best Ensemble. However, again Best Picture is a preferential ballot, so if Hustle is really out of it, then its votes don’t get thrown away, but probably eventually find their way to Slave. Or maybe not. Maybe Hustle fans want something pleasant to watch and prefer Gravity. But at any rate, I don’t think Hustle is out of it.
I happen to agree, somewhat, that ‘American Hustle’ may be dropping in the polls with voters. ’12 Years a Slave’ has had early momentum and has managed to take about half of the Critics circuit’s Best Picture awards. But again, that’s only HALF. Usually, that’s more than sufficient to suggest it will win at the Oscars. But lately, especially after this PGA shocker, ‘Gravity’ could very well be the ‘Crash’ of 2013. I wouldn’t disagree with it winning Best Picture. All the films in this year’s Best Picture category are well deserving of their nominations. Here’s how it looks right now from my point of view:
BEST PICTURE: 12 Years a Slave / Gravity (toss-up)
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cauron – Gravity
BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Spike Jonze – Her
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Great Beauty (Italy)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezski – Gravity
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – The Great Gatsby
BEST FILM EDITING: Gravity
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Gravity / Her (toss-up)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: ‘Let It Go’ – Frozen
BEST SOUND EDITING: Gravity / Captain Phillips (toss-up)
BEST SOUND MIXING: Gravity / Captain Phillips (toss-up)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Gravity
Based on ‘Gravity’ being the front-runner in a majority of award categories, one could reason that it might do the unthinkable and upset 12 YAS for Best Picture. Not only is it a highly-advanced technical marvel, it is also emotionally gripping and very human. Even though there’s three actors on screen in the whole movie, that doesn’t take away from the effect it’s had on critics and audiences. While I still believe that ’12 Years a Slave’ has the edge, it is entirely possible we could be in for one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history.
Akumax – I think this is the strongest BP field after the expansion in 2009.
Just look at the below left out list. I wrote some of them. Incredible…
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue Jasmine
Before Midnight
Frances Ha
Blue is the Warmest Color
Gravity is dwfinitely winning best picture. Definitely a game changing movie like lotr or avatar
Bryce,
people hate on winners, it is a fact unfortunately. Backlash will come to whatever film wins.
I think we are lucky this year, the 9 films selected are all very good films. I’m fine with every outcome even if Gravity is my favorite.
I can’t really decide wether I want GRAVITY to win or not.
I DO: Because I would be very happy for Cuaron, Lubezki, Bullock and everyone else involved who did an amazing job in every possibly imaginable way. And it’s my favorite film of the year. It’s happened before so it’s not like I’d be crushed (NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN + THE HURT LOCKER). Oscar has been too to me –not so recently though.
I DON’T: Because I foresee the mean swift backlash from all quarters. Also, Cuaron will probably be nominated again so there’s that. Maybe his next effort will be embraced by the intellectual elites and not just by the people.
Mi>But PGA is a preferential ballot, so we now have concrete evidence that 12 Years and Gravity perform well with a preferential ballot. We don’t have that same concrete evidence regarding AH.
Robert A — The preferential ballot result – of producers – didn’t reveal how far behind AH stands. We may not have preferential data from the actors but we do have SAG results.
We’re all just guessing in the wind at this point. DGA may help us figure this out, but then again it may not. For my part I’ll be looking more closely for any telling trends across all the guilds – not just DGA and WGA.
In a final showdown between GRAVITY and 12YAS the producers vote will split , the directors go to CUARON and the techs votes go to Gravity …the actors need to go to 12 YAS …..HOWEVER , it’s a THREE HORSE RACE , NOT TWO and so many of those actors votes may well go to American Hustle instead , or just enough to cripple the chances for 12 YAS ….this could be the scenario that pushes Gravity over the edge to victory …..I could very well be wrong in my assumptions and hope I am
The truth is the “race” is probably closer to what it was back in November, cept without Oprah and Matthew rising. Apparently SAG favored the more actor friendly film, PGA the more producer-savvy. Everyone look shocked! This changes everything!
I think its in our nature to pretend the race is more in flux than it actually is. We sit and look at the results and study past precedence and try to find narratives, but honestly…its probably not as wild as you think it is.
Robert A. – BAFTA will have very little to no influence this year. They predicted terribly wrong and put themselves in a nasty position. Just look at this:
Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 11 (Eleven) Academy Award Nominations
Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 0 (Zero) BAFTA Award Nominations
“The thing SAG told us is American Hustle has more support from actors than 12 Years a Slave.”
Not really. Each won one award from SAG. If SAG hugely preferred AH to 12 Years a Slave, wouldn’t Jennifer Lawrence have won supporting actress? My guess is that the vote for both supporting actress and ensemble were probably relatively close. No way of knowing that, of course.
The fact that there have been so many splits between director and film so far and the fact the PGA can’t decide on a single film tells me that Cuaron is likely to take BD, but that BP is still wide open and we are likely heading for a split with Oscar.
It’s totally feasible that this year voters will deliberately select different films for BD and BD. Only a win by either McQueen or Russell at the DGA will change that, and I doubt that will happen.
I still don’t see Gravity being selected BP by the Oscar voter demographic.
“Again, I’m not calling it, but in a preferential system 12 Years may be too polarizing.”
But PGA is a preferential ballot, so we now have concrete evidence that 12 Years and Gravity perform well with a preferential ballot. We don’t have that same concrete evidence regarding AH.
The thing SAG told us is American Hustle has more support from actors than 12 Years a Slave.
But Gravity was not a player in that game. So, we cannot know how many actors, who are both Academy and SAG members, will vote for Gravity as Best Picture at the Oscars. When they have to consider Best Picture and not best ensemble cast it’s a plausible possibility some of them will vote differently, or not?
I want 12 YAS to win but it just seems like a difficult climb for it if/when CUARON wins DGA…I mean , Gravity already has about 5-6 tech oscars in the bag ….so OK , 12 YAS sweeps BAFTA and maybe even Mcqueen wins BD at BAFTA , but there is poor correlation between BP winner at BAFTA and OSCAR and so I just don’t think it will influence the race very much
I could very well be wrong , after all it was I who was predicting that AH would checkmate last night
It seems to me that there was no exact tie but just close enough that they could not call it for one or the other without giving a false sense of victory …it needed to be called a tie so folks would not put too much faith in it’s victory or be too pessimistic in defeat
I think American Hustle will win Best Picture. Gravity will win technical awards. (cinematography visual effects etc..)
@SallyinChicago,
I don’t work for NASA, but the sci-fi nerd in me speculates that Clooney’s character ran out of oxygen moments after he told Sandra’s character to get back to the ship. He died and his body floated off into the vast blackness of the infinite outer space.
“Hustle has the actors.”
^That’s very reductive. Actors decided AH had best _ensemble_, but not that it’s the best film. Actors, of course, vote for all movies. If it came to “Best Film,” my guess is their votes would be distributed, but that the plurality would go to 12 Years, like for the other voting organizations.
“Hustle has the actors.”
I need to watch these movies again. I thought ALL the Best Picture nominees had actors in them.
I hope you’re right, Jerry Grant. I just keep thinking how The Social Network lost to the enjoyable The King’s Speech. And how the non-Big Bad Wolf Argo won because it was more palatable to more people than its competition. Let’s face it – 12 Years is a tough sit.
I’ll be interested to see how the narrative unfolds in the coming weeks – whether there’s any so-called dirty pool and which film will benefit/suffer from the inevitable media discourse.
Gravity is STILL an unlikely choice for Best Picture. But I’m starting to wonder. Had 12 Years a Slave won the SAG, we’d say it’s probably all over, except that maybe Cuaron could still win the DGA and Oscar. But so far, the one major guild Gravity wasn’t up for went to Hustle, not Slave. The point is that Slave has won every “Best Picture” award but among the guilds, it will have some of the writers (others will go for Her and Hustle). Slave will have half the producers, Gravity the other half, plus maybe the directors and all the techs. Hustle has the actors. If we rule out Hustle, this becomes a question of the tech branches and maybe directors vs. the writers and actors, all of whom are split anyway (with the actors more for Hustle). Are there enough tech voters and presumably directors to counteract the writers and actors pushing Slave? Do Gravity’s director and tech fans counteract its lack of a writing nomination and the acting support for the other films?
one thing this means is that a lot of Academy members will watch 12 Years and Gravity, maybe for the first time….. they could receive some unexpected Oscars for these films because of last night…. Production Design, for example…. even an upset in one of the acting categories.
Well, I said the PGA would decide all, then they had to go and pull this shit.
Well, I guess the DGA will be very interesting, won’t it?
Here’s my voice in this:
American Hustle is not in this race for the big win. It’s is clearly at #3. I’ve been saying this for a while, and my reasons have stayed the same. It’s not the kind of movie people put at #1 for the year. It’s a movie they give tons of nominations, and they like a lot. Let’s stop pretending it’s the big bad wolf–of course it won SAG ensemble (it is the best ensemble of the year), and of course it won Golden Globes-Comedy.
I have been confident 12 Years has this, and now Gravity shows itself as a serious #2 contender. That will become even closer if and when Cuaron wins DGA. Which is awesome. But my prediction will still be on 12 Years for the win.
Why?
To voters’ minds, Gravity needs to be awarded and deserves to be. But “Best Picture”? Voters like a script AND a directorial feat for best picture–and the script isn’t really there for voters. It’s a visual feat. (Remember when they didn’t award Avatar?) Further, and perhaps more importantly, awarding 12 Years a Slave–perhaps THE critics’ choice of the year, mind you–is making history. It is an actors’ ensemble. It is emotional to the max. It not only has a screenplay nomination, it will probably win screenplay. Actor and Supporting Actress are serious contenders to win. THAT, my friends, is the winning movie at the end of the day.
That said, Gravity is a serious threat for Picture, and I’m sorry to stupidly predict a split, but if ever a director deserves a win without a Best Picture win, it’s Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity.
Best Picture- 12 Years a Slave
Best Director- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Actor- Matthew McConaughey
Best Actress- Cate Blanchett
Best Supp. Actor- Jared Leto
Best Supp. Actress- Lupita Nyong’o
Best Orig. Screenplay- American Hustle
Best Adap. Screenplay- 12 Years a Slave
A few days ago everyone was saying “It’s all about the PGA,” but now “It’s all about the DGA.” Or BAFTA.
Whew.
My view is that Gravity won’t win the Oscar. I see it in a position similar to Life of Pi. One day a tech-heavy film with few actors may win best picture, but the actors branch will need to be onboard.
The nitty gritty of this is what are the Oscar voters doing when sitting at Academy screenings or sitting at home watching their screeners? I’m talking about the series of whippings and beatings in 12 Years a Slave. True – Schindler’s List survived this test, but in the minds of Oscar voters, the Holocaust, I think, hits closer to home (right or wrong) than the slavery issue.
I won’t make a final prediction just yet, but I still think American Hustle is very much in this race as the compromise alternative with enough #1 votes – and, importantly, enough #2 or #3 votes – to win. It wouldn’t need to win in very many categories to do this just as Argo and The King’s Speech didn’t. Again, I’m not calling it, but in a preferential system 12 Years may be too polarizing.
Why does this solidify 12YAS spot as a frontrunner. If anything, this weakens it. There would be no need for a tie if it were so strong a film.
ya, it always weakens a film to win the PGA. There wasn’t a “need” for a tie. It just happened.
jeez, nobody recalls 24 hours ago, when all the pundits were saying “hurry up, PGA. and just get it over with, give it to American Hustle so we can all get comfortable with the inevitable Actor’s Circus Showcase steamroller?”
I just have to smile at the naiveness of many. These are the Oscars, for God’s sake. They do as they please. They got Crash instead of Brokeback Mountain. They snubbed Lauren Bacall, they gave TWO to Hillary Swank in front of Annette Benning. They gave back to back Oscars to Tom Hanks. In the end, this is an award ultimately ruled by the acting branch. That makes American Hustle a threat, by default.
… and 12 Years a Slave might be a great film, an important film, but Schindler’s List ain’t, and with that I mean, it is not the film the Academy HAS to multiaward to avoid backslash (re: The Color Purple).
While Cuaron seems a safe bet for Directing, I think we’re just overlooking the obvious, American Hustle has grown stronger and stronger and nailed his “MUST” wins: 3 GG and the SAG Ensemble. “12 Years a Slave” got the GG and that’s it, had even to share the PGA with Gravity, which was 3rd in the race. As I say, DGA will probably mark the fate… if Cuaron wins, we have the same elements of jugdement and probably it’s a tight fight between “12” and “Hustle”. If McQueen or Russell win, then, it’s game, set and match for any of them. Remember, “American Hustle” GOT the compulsory Film Editing nom, over more obvious candidates, specially “The Wolf of Wall Street”.
Gawdamn what an exciting year. 12YAS solidifies its spot as frontrunner. Gravity with the late underdog surge to become the dark horse. It’s officially a 2 horse race now. AH is out for Best Picture IMO.
As I’ve predicted from the start, it’s going to be 12YAS Best Picture, Cuaron Best Director. An easy outcome to foresee for a long time now.
@Daniel:
Christ, I hope they don’t! I’m seeing a lot of people predicting AH could take Costume Design, which I hope goes to The Great Gatsby (I actually think Catherine Martin will pull a second Moulin Rouge and win both Production Design and Costumes again, as she should).
The only leading Actor in Gravity is Bullock and she was nominated for a SAG in the Best Actress category. She would have been the only actor (or maybe Clooney too) officially listed in the ensemble category…
So, to all the people that keep saying Gravity didn’t have a SAG ensemble nom: HOW was that a possibility??
An ensemble nomination with one leading actor and a performance which is more a cameo by a super star?
SallyinChicago,
sorry but it takes 2 seconds to scroll to the end of the page… what is the problem?
“Why else has no movie not nominated for SAG Ensemble except Braveheart won Best Picture? No Avatar, no Life of Pi etc.” – Claudiu Dobre
Now you’re back to the “lack of a SAG ensemble” argument. Neither Avatar nor Life of Pi received any acting nominations from SAG or AMPAS. Gravity did. If the actors didn’t pick Avatar or Life of Pi, it wasn’t for lack of an ensemble, it was because they thought the acting in other films was better. Sure Gravity lacks an ensemble, but Bullock’s nomination is a clear indication that people thought the acting was excellent.
Corvo,
I completely agree with you.
I want to start a campaign right now. That this thread start with the latest comment instead of the earliest comment. We have to spend time scrolling through 200 comments which is annoying.
“Cinema is not about WHAT, it’s about HOW.” That’s an interesting point. However, to me that’s too general statement. Yes, it does have interesting radical implications, but nonetheless 😉 I can only speak for myself, because I’m no art critic, but I fully support the diversity of art. Sometimes I want to look at Rothko’s paintings, but sometimes I need to see a Rembrandt. It’s that simple with me. Same with cinema. That’ where we come to a point where giving awards for any kind of art is just arbitrary.
rock-solid statistical fact:
– DGA predicted the Oscar for Best Picture 9 times during the last 10 years. Only exception Brokeback Mountain.
– No film EVER won that many awards before Oscar night and then went home without BP.
We all know that that year inside the academy something happened in relation to the fact that BBM was more than a front runner.
The President of the Academy even said they were receiving a lot of letters against the film even being nominated. A group of famous members openly said they refused to see the movie and lobbied hard to hurt its chances.
In that case it was not a close race, it was a shameful boycott.
There is always a prejudice against movies which don’t deal with the biggest issues of our times (not directly, because every artwork is an expression of our times). Gravity (and not only Gravity: every genre movie) is perceived as not heavy enough, not important enough to be awarded over a clearly explanatory lesson like 12 years a Slave. This way of thinking reveals a misinterpretation of cinematographic art. Cinema is not about WHAT, it’s about HOW. The dimension of art is beauty, not sense.
“I kinda hope they tie for Best Picture on Oscar night, too. I’d really LOVE it if American Hustle went 0-for-10.”
In fact, that’s what I am currently predicting. I just worry about them THROWING best original screenplay to David O. Russel since AH won’t win any other importany one (what would be a crime, considering that’s Spike Jonze’s to lose)
Gravity won’t win best picture. It could win directing, but it won’t win picture.
And every time I read a statement that best actress is Blanchett vs. Bullock, I feel the urge to laugh out loud. Best Actress is no race. It’s Blanchett’s to lose and my guess is that Bullock won’t even come in second. Dench could. But even then, it’s not a race. It’s Blanchett and Bullock has NO shot at all.
Yes. Yes they do… They do EXACTLY that – though maybe subconsciously. It’s historically proven. Why else has no movie not nominated for SAG Ensemble except Braveheart won Best Picture? No Avatar, no Life of Pi etc.
Claudiu Dobre, why would the “lack of an ensemble” hinder Gravity’s chances? You think actors watch the movie and say “Oh no, too few people, I won’t put this down for best picture”? That’s nonsense. I suppose VFX artists won’t vote for 12YAS because it’s not VFX-heavy, right?
Then why were Ebert and others predicting it? Why has no movie won BP without a Best Editing nomination since 1981?
And do you really need me to tell you how incredibly unimportant critics awards and Globes and BAFTAs are for predicting the BP Oscar, compared to the guilds and Oscar nominations? Remember The Social Network? Do I REALLY need to cite the many other counterexamples to your weak argument?
Sure, most people (who didn’t have a clue) thought BBM was some kind of lock or something, but the experts were quite torn. Many were predicting Crash after the SAG win and, obviously, rightly so. The fact alone that it won should tell you something about how close the race was, if all of the rock-solid statistical facts I just presented weren’t enough to persuade you.
I should be the one saying “come on!!!!”…
@Claudiu
“In 2005 you had Crash (which had won the SAG but had no Golden Globe nomination) vs. Brokeback Mountain (PGA+DGA but no editing nomination), so clearly close”
SO CLOSE????
come on!!!!
Brokeback Mountain won dozens of awards during the awards season that year!!!!
Jack Nicholson face while he was opening the envelope expressed just how close was that race!!!
If The Wolf of Wall Street is going to loose, i prefer that loses to 12 years a Slave
@Joey: Sandra landed on land, but whose land? Was it the U.S. or China – I thought it was the U.S., thus when the jets flew by.
As for Clooney floating away in space, I was just stating that scene of him floating away was haunting to me. I kept wondering if he died or did he fall from space into another planet? Sorry I’m not as scientific-minded as you are.
I kinda hope they tie for Best Picture on Oscar night, too. I’d really LOVE it if American Hustle went 0-for-10.
Felipe – :).
I was thinking: splits aren’t really THAT hard to predict. They almost always happen in very close races. The only exception since all three big guilds give out awards is Chicago in 2003 – Polanski is one of the biggest surprises in Academy Award history. The others:
– In 1998 you had two very strong movies, Shakespeare in Love (SAG winner, no significant snubs) and Saving Private Ryan (DGA+PGA winner, no significant snubs) so, again, a close race.
– In 2000 you had 3 different guild winners: Gladiator had only won the PGA (no other movie that didn’t win either the DGA or SAG has ever won the BP Oscar, except for Braveheart), Traffic had won the SAG (but had no PGA nomination) and Crouching Tiger… had no SAG or Golden Globe BP nominations.
– In 2005 you had Crash (which had won the SAG but had no Golden Globe nomination) vs. Brokeback Mountain (PGA+DGA but no editing nomination), so clearly close.
– The split last year was easy to predict and, besides, that one was also an unclear race, precisely due to the favorite not having a director nomination.
People usually don’t get them right because they keep predicting them in years when there’s no real race – like the King’s Speech and Artist years, when there was really only one possible BP winner after the guilds.
I think we can agree this year qualifies as a (very) close race and I think a split is quite likely. Since I also think Gravity is highly unlikely to win BP but not BD, it’ll probably be 12YAS/Cuaron or AH/Cuaron. No Gravity for BP…
Also, is it somehow cool now to be “anti-political-correctness” or something? I definitely see it in my country. When people want to sound more independent or intelectual, they often mock something that I often see as an example of social awareness, and dismiss it as “political correctness”. As if they were saying: “look, I think for myself, I don’t buy into that bullshit, it’s ridiculous and absurd”. Somehow it’s cool now. I often wonder about that. Not saying that this is necessarily the case with 12YAS and Gravity all of the time, but sometimes I think it has something to do with it. Just an observation.
One thing I learned over the years is that, anytime someone (particularly if it is a large organization) doesn’t align with my opinion, it’s for the wrong reasons and anytime someone does, it’s for the right reasons.
Or so reading posts, columns and comments lead me to believe.
“O. Russell seems doubtful, though, and I don’t see how AH could win otherwise.”
Like Crash and Shakespeare in Love did… (which would mean a split)
“Having breakthrough technology and state of the art special effects is not the only measure of a movie’s “artistry.””
This.
+1 for Kasia.
Huh, my comment seems to have appeared a bit later than I posted it… Anyway, I see some of you felt the same way 😉
Why is it all “politics vs. pure cinema” when it comes to 12YAS and Gravity? Why can’t a film about an important sociopolitical phenomenon, or even more so about one person’s unique story, be also a deeply cinematic experience? Or are we only supposed to cherish “pure cinema” as a form or a medium completely detached from our social existence? I don’t agree with this narrative. To me films can and should be made about anything and everything, and each of them can reach that point when the viewer feels like his reality and the reality of the film are, even if for a brief moment, one – that’s how I see “pure cinema”.
I cannot post comments anymore… why?
@ Corvo
A “cultural win” and an “artistic win,” as you call them, are not mutually exclusive, as you seem to be assuming. It’s possible that you could have a cultural win and an artistic win at the same time, which is, in my opinion, what 12 Years a Slave would be.
Having breakthrough technology and state of the art special effects is not the only measure of a movie’s “artistry.”
“To me Gravity is an artistic achievement far superior than 12 years a Slave.”
“To me” being the key words there.
“If politics prevails, 12 Years wins. If pure cinema prevails, Gravity wins.”
Pretty lame argument, since it assumes that the only reason someone would vote for 12 Years is because they feel like they have to and not because they want to or because they feel it was the best film of the year. Which of course is completely absurd. I, for one, am a cinema lover, and would vote for 12 Years over Gravity.
Here’s my best guess for the next few weeks:
If David O. Russell somehow wins DGA, AH probably becomes the frontrunner for BP, regardless of BAFTA results. O. Russell seems doubtful, though, and I don’t see how AH could win otherwise.
If Cuaron wins DGA, which seems the most likely scenario, then BAFTA becomes more key in sorting things out. If Gravity beats 12 Years at BAFTA, I think Gravity wins the BP Oscar.
If McQueen wins DGA, 12 Years will most likely win BAFTA and the Oscar.
My best guess: Cuaron wins DGA and 12 Years cleans up at BAFTA, leaving Oscar night a nail biter.
And how would that letter scene even have worked had the passage of time been made clear? Unless it somehow happened precisely in the last year of his slavery, which I don’t think is the case…
“McQueen isn’t a very good director because his passage of time in 12YS was atrocious.”
What is wrong with people bringing this up all the time?! The guy makes an artistic choice to try to underline how hopeless his character’s situation is by not clearly showing how much time has passed (which we already know by the end anyway, from the title, so it’s not essential), and how it all just seems like it will never end, like it’s eternal, and you all just assume he had no idea what he was doing. Did he start making movies yesterday?! Stop acting like such geniuses! The movie did NOT feel like it happened over a few months. YOU felt that way about it and that’s your problem…
Not to mention the brilliant effect of making us wonder the whole movie when he’s going to get rescued. If McQueen had shown the year, at the end we would have instantly known for sure that that was when he would be freed. But, this way, it’s never certain and it could still turn out sourly, like the time he gave the letter to that white guy. Fassbender could get him back… It’s a great choice and builds up the tension and atmosphere wonderfully.
“actually, based on protestations by rocket scientists, Cuaron didn’t do his homework quite thoroughly as there were several astrophysically impossible sequences in the movie”
There you go! If you MUST find flaws, it’s easy to do so…
“Corvo, why does politics come into play when you say 12YAS could win. Why can’t the film win on its own artistic merits like you designate to Gravity?
I’m tired of such polarizing chatter, stop discounting 12YAS as if it were some Lifetime Sunday afternoon movie.”
Thank you, Simone!
“How can people STILL bring up Gravity’s lack of a SAG Ensemble nod?
Don’t they understand WHY it didn’t get nominated?”
OK, fine, I guess I need to just say “lack of an ensemble”, period, from now on, so that everybody understands what the problem actually is…
“a split between the two most prestigious categories Best Picture & Director seems likely. If so, the only reasonable outcome is 12YAS for Picture and Gravity for Director, especially since the former is much more actor-friendly than the latter. Case closed.”
Why? You really think American Hustle and Cuaron isn’t a split that could happen?…
“If McQueen sneaked over him then 12 Years a Slave will have a slight edge”
Considering how unexpected that would be, I think you actually mean “will be a near-lock” (at least against Gravity). I’m not counting on it, though – I’m happy with just the PGA for now. It’s enough to be in a good position, come Oscar night.
“American Hustle is probably out of the race, at least when it comes to Picture and Director.”
Not even remotely true… It IS an underdog now, though.
“I still believe Hustle has a chance to win the biggest award regardless of its BD winning prospect (for now).”
This instead.
Sondheim,
Saw LOOKING. Liked it, but why does it have to look so much like WEEKEND. It’s distracting.
Ok, that explains a lot Corvo.
Every 12 years supporter is saying that an Oscar win would be so meaningful because of american history, racism issues etc. That’s politics. If McQueen wins, it’s a cultural win rather than an artistic one. Maybe the U.S. needs this kind of win to go forward as a country, ok, I understand that. But I’m a world citizen and when I talk about cinema I only care about cinema. To me Gravity is an artistic achievement far superior than 12 years a Slave.
@Eric P.
Your comments about McQueen’s contributions to 12 Years A Slave are wonderful. Since I have not read the screenplay, I am not sure what was already written and what McQueen specifically decided, but there were many great moments in that film that were quietly and hauntingly beautiful…even when they were depicting the worst parts of human nature.
One of my favorite scenes was when Northup smashed his violin to pieces. I actually gasped because it seemed like it was Northup’s way of saying all hope had been lost. When he had the violin, it represented the most defining part of him as a free man and reminded him of the life he hoped to regain, and by destroying the instrument he was destroying that part of him that was not a slave. It was such a simple but powerful moment.
Gravity, The Wolf Of Wall Street, and Her also had these types of moments that really stay with you. Some of them are simple while others a grand set pieces, but they all help their films transcend from good cinema to great cinema. Other films had great moments too, but these four films really blew me away with how overall great they were.
“Anyway, I saw Gravity, and it still baffles me — what happened to Geo Clooney? Where did he go? Did he die? I walked out of that theater with him on my mind. And oh yeh, did the jets pick up Sandra?”
–SallyinChicago
*SPOILERS*
Clooney’s fate baffles you? Really? Yes, he died. His suit ran out of oxygen and he died. His body probably just kept floating out into space.
As for Bullock, I am not sure what jets you are referring to specifically, but I believe she landed somewhere in China. The Chinese capsule probably had a locator on it, and as she was coming in Mission Control (Ed Harris) basically said they were coming for her.
I am not sure why these two things were such mysteries to you. Were you equally as confused about the fate of Kelly Macdonald’s character in No Country For Old Men? I mean we never actually see what happens to her. Are you still wondering about that, or did you figure out the most logical outcome without the movie specifically showing you?
If there are any other plot points in great movies you are confused about, let me know. I am sure I, or someone else at AD, can help you out.
@darylMFdixon, you’re saying that anyone could’ve made “12 Years A Slave”. I doubt that very much. Would anyone have held that shot of Solomon hanging from the tree for that long. Would anyone have made their audiences look at Solomon being beating with a plank of wood, pause for a second, and then make at them look at it all over again. How about that scene where Patsy gets raped by Epps? How about that beautiful cut to the title card when Solomon blows out the candle? The use of Hans Zimmer’s wonderful score. The contrast of cutting between horrific images of rape and torture with images of the beautiful nature of the south.
“12 Years a Slave” is not my favorite film of the year. But to take away from the artistry of that film, just because you enjoy another film more is not cool. McQueen has a very specific type of aesthetic, and his finger prints were all over that film. Ditto Cuaron. Ditto Scorsese. Ditto Payne. Ditto Jonze. Ditto Greengrass.
I’m in minority here as an American Hustle supporter re awards season.
But that’s life – if not Hustle, then 12 Years, or Gravity, or both 12 Years and Gravity.
Congrats to both films. You’ve earned it (Had it been Hustle, I though would have said the same). My point: too many seemingly great films this (last) year.
—
To Sasha or any other pro bloggers who happen to visit this page
If you’d like, on AD, or with your own links provided in case of other pro bloggers than Sasha, I’d like to hear from you re Hustle chance in Oscars BP and BD (etc.) in particular, against 12 Years and/or Gravity.
I still believe Hustle has a chance to win the biggest award regardless of its BD winning prospect (for now). If not Hustle, for now I guess 12 Years will win BP.
PS: To one reader, was it really necessary to call Hustle a “P-o-S”? [face-palm]
Corvo, why does politics come into play when you say 12YAS could win. Why can’t the film win on its own artistic merits like you designate to Gravity?
I’m tired of such polarizing chatter, stop discounting 12YAS as if it were some Lifetime Sunday afternoon movie.
Corvo.Why is it politics if 12 Yers won? Who says? You?
“That piece of crap Scorsese wanna be, American Hustle, is going to win now because the other two will split the vote.”
–ReRe
I liked American Hustle. It was a fun little film. It reminded me of another con movie that won Best Picture: The Sting. I am not rooting for it to win Best Picture, but it would not be an embarrassment if it did.
However, I agree 100% with you ReRe about O’Russell basically ripping off Scorsese’s style for American Hustle. I think O’Russell is a talented director, but every edit, every zoom, and every song choice in this film was right out of the Scorsese handbook. I mean, if you are going to steal, steal from the best, but it really surprised me how much American Hustle felt like a Scorsese forgery. It it is funny when you think about that scene between Bale and Cooper when Bale is talking about how the forgeries of the great pieces of art come from talented people. It almost felt like O’Russell was saying, “Hey, I may be ripping off Scorsese’s style, but I still have talent! as a director” If O’Russell does win the DGA or Oscar, I hope he mentions in his acceptance speech how every directorial choice he made on American Hustle was decided by him simply asking, “What would Scorsese do?”
i’m supporting 12 yrs a slave win over everthing else or just anything but AH !
so happy with the results
and woohoo for breaking bad
If politics prevails, 12 years wins. If pure cinema prevails, Gravity wins. Exciting race. I’m rooting for Gravity but if there is a split (Cuaron BD, 12 years BP) I’m fine with that.
It’s like the Electoral College. Hustle definitely needs script, an acting win, and editing to win BP without BD. Gravity needs directing and probably a near sweep of the techs to make up for no acting win or script nod. 12 Years needs script, an acting win, and probably director to win picture. The DGA and WGA might be the last stand for Hustle.
OH MY GOSH!!!!! Nobody saw that comming!!!!!
^^ I can see a couple of ties coming.
I can see the Best Supporting Actor as a split and the best movie as a split.
I still don’t think the main-stream, old-time Oscar members will vote for Jared Leto. I think they’ll go for Fassbender.
Moderator: Please start another thread on this subject — or please reverse the comments.
Anyway, I saw Gravity, and it still baffles me — what happened to Geo Clooney? Where did he go? Did he die? I walked out of that theater with him on my mind. And oh yeh, did the jets pick up Sandra?
American Hustle is probably out of the race, at least when it comes to Picture and Director. DGA will be the key award, but that goes to Cuaron or McQueen. I don’t think there will be a Picture/Director split, it’s either Gravity or 12YAS all the way. Gravity wins a shitload no matter what, but 12YAS might easily get away with 4-5 awards (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supp. Actress, maybe art direction or costumes). Hustle’s biggest chances are in the original screenplay category, and I think it’ll be the movie’s only award of the evening. I would very much prefer to see Her win, but it’s hard to bet that a movie with 11 nominations will get nothing (which is not all that impossible, but very unlikely).
never underestimate Warner.
with the guilds spread around Academy members can vote without the “frontrunner/no chance clutter….. for the first time since I have been Oscar-watching here. Traffic/Gladiator/Tiger maybe.
btw…. AH had a very good weekend at the box office.
@ Joshua –
“I don’t know why people are picking “12 Years A Slave” to sweep the BAFTAs as it didn’t get a nomination for “Best British Film.” However, “Gravity” managed to get nominated in that category!!”
Dude, that’s because 12YAS is not a British financed film, nor was it filmed in England. Gravity was filmed in England with some British financial backing.
There’s the difference son. 12YAS has British/Irish talent, but USA money.
OH MY GOSH!!!!! Nobody saw that comming!!!!!
I don’t believe that there will be a TIE at the Oscars! BUT with this unexpected and unbelievable wins last night Gravity could win BEST PICTURE over 12 Years a Slave!
We all remember what happend in the year 2011 when “The Social Network” was the clear favourite for the win, with winning the most critics, the GG, Satellite and the Critics Choice! And at the PGA “The Kings Speech” won! And we all know how the Academy Awards ended!
So Gravity could win:
Picture (12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity)
Director (Alfonso Cuaron vs. Steve McQueen)
Leading Actress (Cate Blanchett vs. Sandra Bullock)
Edeting (Gravity vs. ?)
Cinematography (Gravity vs. ?)
Production Design (The Great Gatsby vs. Gravity)
Sound Edeting (Gravity vs. The Lone Survivor vs. Captain Phillips)
Sound Mixing (Gravity vs. The Lone Survivor vs. Captain Phillips)
Score (Gravity vs. ?)
Visual Effects (Gravity vs. ?)
Any good psychic knows the Oscars will be cancelled mid-show because there will be an epic epidemic of dysentery just after Best Animated feature goes to The Croods.
My Predictions:
Picture: Gravity
Director: Cuaron
Actor: McConaughey
Actress: Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Leto
Supporting Actress: Nyong’o
Original Screenplay: Her
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Editing: Gravity
Cinematography: Inside Llewyn Davis
Sound Mixing: Gravity
Sound Editing: Captain Phillips
Production Design: Her
Visual Effects: Gravity
Costume Design: Great Gatsby
Makeup & Hair: Dallas Buyers Club
Original Score: Her
Original Song: Frozen
Awards Breakdown:
Gravity: 5
Her: 3
Dallas Buyers Club: 3
12 Years a Slave: 2
Omg! I just woke up in Michigan and was starting to make breakfast when I suddenly realized in my sleep fog brain that I had to see who won the PGA overnight. I was dreading looking because I thought for sure American hustle would win and that movie really disappointed me except for jl. But no a fracking tie! my head exploded! scifi and slavery win! I’m so happy I just can’t believe it!
actually, based on protestations by rocket scientists, Cuaron didn’t do his homework quite thoroughly as there were several astrophysically impossible sequences in the movie, i guess that’s why it qualifies as science fiction, nevertheless, Gravity is one fantastic hell of a thrill ride & i loved every second of it!
American Hustle is the most over-rated and undeserving Best Picture nominee in a long time. How does anybody think Jennifer Lawrence deserve an Oscar for her performance in that movie??? It’s embarrassing if the Academy reward her or that film in any if the top categories. I’m still recovering from last year when Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress over Emmanuelle Riva
I have successfully predicted Gravity winning PGA. I wrote many times that there is no industry-wide (Argo, The Artist like) support for 12YAS and it makes the BP race open to surprises. It is now DGA and if Cuaron wins then it will be over.
@Ryan Adams, you can be snarky as much as you want, it’s your site after all, and that’s fine. I’m happy that incredible achievement Gravity wasn’t pushed aside by the movie with really annoying political pressure behind it. No offense, but you and Sasha contributed to that annoyance a lot. No, people who prefer movies that aren’t 12YS, director who isn’t McQueen and actors who aren’t Ejiofor and Nyong’o are not racist latent or otherwise. We just think others did a better job. If they happen to be white, it’s because, sadly, white people dominate the industry and have better shot at making and starring in prestigious movies that get awards attention.
IMO, McQueen isn’t a very good director because his passage of time in 12YS was atrocious. The movie felt like it took place within couple of months. Also, casting Brad Pitt in that role (I’m trying not to spoil the movie) was atrocious idea. Distracting, took me out of the movie, felt really Hollywoodized and out of place. Those decisions are director’s and I thought they weakened the movie considerably. So, IMO, Cuaron and Scorcese were way better but Cuaron would have my vote because nobody achieved what he did. Nobody could make a movie that he made. No offense, but 12YS-like movies and TV shows have been made since Roots or even earlier and 12YS had nothing new to say that we didn’t know. IMO, Leo’s monologue in Django broke some new ground about how people back in dark times were thinking. 12YS was business as usual.
Ditto actors. Leo is in another league from anyone altogether. It’s a travesty that he was uncertain nominee and that he isn’t a frontrunner. But I choke it up to late release of his movie. And I’d honestly swap Ejiofor for Hanks cause I couldn’t connect with Ejiofor’s constipated look. I think he’s by far the weakest of nominees I’ve seen (haven’t seen Dern). Ditto Nyong’o. Sally Hawkins owns her and un-nominated Margot Robbie owns all nominees. Yes, those actors happen to be white but they had something to do while Ejiofor and Nyong’o played boring, passive characters. They may be better actors than the script let them but, screw it, your character is boring so you’re not making my ballot if I can’t remember your scenes.
Somebody is talking about race here. Giving a big speech. But it doesn’t appear to be me. I think it’s you.
I have not been lecturing about race so please get off my back and maybe stop being so defensive.
PGA WASN’T meant to go to American Hustle in the first place… The surprise here was 12 Years a Slave TIED with Gravity which gave us a three-way race to the Oscars. DGA is Cuaron’s to lose. If McQueen sneaked over him then 12 Years a Slave will have a slight edge, if Cuaron wins it then it will still be a three-way race. American Hustle as I’ve been vocal here is my top 1 of the year but I am sure not expecting O. Russell to win the DGA (because Cuaron deserves it so much for making great films for the past years). But if in case O. Russell won the DGA, I sense that he’ll become the most hated person to ever lived in the world since Hitler…
I also think that the BAFTAs won’t matter since it’s obviously will be going to 12 Years a Slave. But Gravity is just there behind it hanging on. What American Hustle proved this award season is that it proved to be a force to be reckon with from the day it won NYFC. And the fact that it received universal acclaim from the critics means that it is a worthy winner for BP. People just have to get easy with O. Russell, JLAw and the rest. They made a film that’s giving 12 Years and Gravity a run for their money that’s why this awards season is the most exciting in years!!!
Woohoo! Even though Her is my favorite this year, I am very happy for a Gravity win. It is the defining film this year and will be best remembered.
This tie makes me so happy! It shows that PGA acknowledges political pressure to award 12YS but that they know that Gravity is true achievement in film-making so they won’t bow to Slaver zealots by snubbing it. Go Gravity and Cuaron! Anyone can make a movie like 12YS and many did. Nobody could make Gravity! Screw politics.
It shows that PGA acknowledges political pressure to award 12YS but that they know that Gravity is true achievement in film-making so they won’t bow to Slaver zealots by snubbing it.
So all 15,000 members of the Directors Guild met up at Denny’s last week and half of them called dibs on voting for Gravity and the other 7,500 directors reluctantly agreed to vote for 12 Years a Slave. Sounds logical.
That piece of crap Scorsese wanna be, American Hustle, is going to win now because the other two will split the vote.
OK, so it seems to break down like this:
* 12YAS & Gravity are the clear frontrunners but the race is very close
* 12YAS has won the most precursors for Picture while Gravity has the most for Director; AH, on the other hand, has only won 2 awards for Picture and 0 for Director
* The SAG likely awarded AH because they like movies with many good parts for actors
* The Actors’ branch is by far the largest branch of the Academy
=> a split between the two most prestigious categories Best Picture & Director seems likely. If so, the only reasonable outcome is 12YAS for Picture and Gravity for Director, especially since the former is much more actor-friendly than the latter. Case closed.
@mweyer, uh, “early Oscar procrastinators?” Do you mean people so adept at procrastinating that they put off doing tasks in advance?
It’s either that or you’re actually referring to prognosticators.
Gravity has 8 actors. Sandra, George & 6 Voice actors. Sleuth has 2. All is Lost has 1. Swimming to Cambodia has 1.
@Jesus Alonso: Like the Biblical figure your first name indicates, it’s going to take a Miracle for me to believe in your predictions.
American Hustle earned nods in all key categories? So did Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. None of them missed crucial nods such as directing or editing.
Amy Adams wins Best Actress against tour de force Cate Blanchett? If that happens, I would call Kanye West personally to interrupt Amy’s speech immediately, and I don’t think there would be a Tweet that would object him doing so. Adams earned her first nomination in Junebug, but since has been swept away into nominations by appearing in ensemble films (Doubt, The Fighter, The Master, American Hustle). Sure she was fine in them, but save The Master I don’t think she was worthy. And certainly not against Blanchett, who has won every critic award except NBR plus all the televised precursors. It would be a total scam.
David O. Russell winning directing wouldn’t be validated either- he’s a sore loser (remember last year’s BAFTA?), difficult to work with and in trouble with the law. His entire cast should take him outside of a bar and beat him with all the scripts he ripped off, including Casino and Goodfellas- clearly the tone he tried to set (and failed) with American Hustle. He might win Screenplay, but against Spike Jonze’s Her? People keep saying AH is a frontrunner for screenplay, yet it hasn’t WON the damn thing yet.
Christian Bale and Bradley Cooper can go to the Oscars drunk and relieved their performances made the finals against much better competition from the likes of Redford, Hanks and Whitaker for Actor, and McConaughey, Bruhl and Franco in Supporting.
Jennifer Lawrence is the strongest bet to prevail, but her recent tired and bratty ways in press conferences (especially last night’s SAG talk) make me think voters will check off Lupita Nyong’o with ease. Lawrence is dreadful in the film, and doesn’t need an underserved win to her already questionable first victory (yep, I was in Riva’s camp). She can still look stunning in Dior and make funny comments without winning.
The voters can give American Hustle costumes and production design, the only two categories it would deserve- and then breathe a sigh of relief that they weren’t forced to go with the Herd Mentality that this was actually CONSIDERED a best picture frontrunner.
Gravity and 12 Years a Slave will be the big winners March 2nd.
@Gail
Fascinating read! Though it seems you and your psychic friends don’t know much more than we do, after all you’ve listed all the usual suspects but Jennifer Lawrence and Chiwetel Ejiofor (even though he’s been apprently downgraded lately).
I like Chambers’ picks the most with the exception of McConaughey, I wish you were right on this one (DiCaprio).
I never would have called this a tie. It makes me wonder if there could be a tie for Best Picture at the Oscars, this year. Also, the fact that it was ‘Gravity’ that ’12 Years a Slave’ tied with and not ‘American Hustle.’ This means that Alfonso Cauron and ‘Gravity’ are actually gaining traction. Could the unthinkable happen and ‘Gravity’ wins Best Picture on Oscar night? Well, if so, it would rank up there with the 1999 Academy Awards when ‘Shakespeare In Love’ emerged as Best Picture over ‘Saving Private Ryan.’ I’m really excited to see how this all plays out. ‘Gravity’ winning alongside ’12 Years a Slave’ puts a new perspective on the Best Picture race. Who knows. Maybe the DGA will give us a more clear indication.
How can people STILL bring up Gravity’s lack of a SAG Ensemble nod?
Don’t they understand WHY it didn’t get nominated?
Jesus Alonso, you are stretching. Amy Adams is not going to win.
TGB- Gravity wasn’t nominated in Ensemble at the SAG because *there are only two actors.* Its omission there is hardly a product of actors’ unwillingness for the film, but merely practicality. I hardly think that it missing an award that it wasn’t built for disqualifies it as an Oscar contender.
But to you, it’s all clear now? Your prediction could certainly come true, but that’s only one of many ways this could all go down over the next few weeks.
I think this changes nothing, DGA actually may underline American Hustle’s new frontrunner status.
For whatever reason, I can’t see (even if he deserves it so much) Academy Award Brad Pitt, still. Neither them going “Gravity”. “American Hustle” has all the key noms and actually there’s reasonable chance it can win every cathegory, even if a longshot. The most difficult one, Amy Adams defeating Cate Blanchett, is possible due to the factor it would be 5-0 to Adams in a decade, something that will be consider as soulless punishment to a woman whose most iconic performance in that very same decade, went snubbed of even the nom (Enchanted).
It is so obvious that 12 Years A Slave is going to take best picture, you really think a sci fi film without a screenplay nod and multiple acting nominations is going to prevail and win over a drama like 12 Years of Slave? Don’t get me wrong, if Gravity wins, I will be happy, but it doesn’t really matter how DGA next week goes. I think 12 Years will eventually win the big ones.
Just got back in from a last-minute, urgent Psychic dessert meeting with good psychic friends Carol Chambers and Pat Richardson. After some quick bites and wine, we discussed two things:
1) The chocolate mousse delicacy Carol picked out was quite scrumptious, and I know I need to lose twenty pounds now.
2) The PGA results were maddening, but we figured a tie was in order. Anywhoo- here are the Psychic predictions for the major Oscar winners. Keep in mind this is just for now- spirits and karma can change:
BEST PICTURE
Withers: 12 Years a Slave
Chambers: Gravity
Richardson: Gravity
BEST DIRECTOR
Withers: Cuaron
Chambers: Cuaron
Richardson: Cuaron
BEST ACTOR:
Withers: DiCaprio
Chambers: McConaughey
Richardson: Dern
BEST ACTRESS
Withers: Blanchett
Chambers: Blanchett
Richardson: Blanchett
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Withers: Leto
Chambers: Fassbender
Richardson: Leto
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Withers: Nyong’o
Chambers: Hawkins
Richardson: Nyong’o
Bye bye, American Hustle.
But yes, of course, anything is possible, and a Gravity win wouldn’t exactly be THE most unlikely scenario, stats-wise. But I’m fairly confident it’s not going to happen – as confident as anybody can be about anything in a season that’s so crazy.
Gravity — first sci-fi film to win / first Hispanic/Mexican/Latino director/producer to win?
12 Years a Slave — first slavery film to win / first black director/producer to win / Brangelina
Cool, Ryan. Will be looking forward to that. Very curious to see who won the simulation!
“Gravity has only two actors and was not going to be nominated for SAG ensemble.”
I’m not going to repeat the argument. I’ve already explained countless times why this isn’t the point… Plus I just conclusively illustrated how vastly different the situation was in 1997, when Titanic had no really strong rivals (and was SOLE first with 14 noms, not tied with 10).
I love when people say “No film has ever won Best Picture without _____”; No film has ever won Best Picture without ____ Oscar nods.
We just had a tie at PGA—- Anything is Possible!
Sit back and enjoy the ride.
This is the best film awards moment of the decade!
I just realized that David Heyman, one of the Gravity producers, produced all the Harry Potter films. Certainly the money was already his reward, but what a good crop of producers this year with such appealing backstories. Heyman, responsible for the most successful film series ever, channeling his passion for popularly appealing projects into an arthouse sci-fi with the most popular woman over 40 in the lead. Brad Pitt, King of Hollywood, who has been pushing himself as an actor for years, pushing beyond his looks, with Angelina his Queen having JUST won the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award, and now he’s up for the first great film masterpiece about slavery. Megan Ellison, a cutting-edge producer, and now the first female producer nominated twice in one year, and for two such distinct but popularly appealing works in American Hustle and Her. And of course the eligible directors themselves — McQueen, Cuaron, Jonze (to say nothing of David O. Russell’s string of hit acting showcases).
Gravity has only two actors and was not going to be nominated for SAG ensemble. Like Titanic it has the biggest box office, most nominations and no screenplay nom. It can certainly win BP.
There’s probably some purely mathematical way to figure out under which system it’s more likely – I just don’t know it and aren’t good enough to figure it out immediately. 🙂 I can’t find a logical solution to that question either – too many factors, too many possible scenarios…