The State of the Race: Best Picture, Too Close to Call

The Producers Guild pulled out the rug out from awards season by awarding two films their top prize. This has never happened in all of PGA’s fairly short history, which started all the way back in 1989, when Driving Miss Daisy won.  That leaves Best Picture down to two, but perhaps three if you factor in the potential for a split vote year. Generally speaking, when Picture and Director split they do so in a way that can’t be predicted.  The pundits continue to predict that 12 Years a Slave will win Picture and Alfonso Cuaron will win director.   Last year’s odd dismissal of the director category means that now, it’s a free-for-all, stats-wise.

But last year still told us that the PGA and the DGA determined Best Picture for the sixth consecutive year, even without a director nomination.  The last time the PGA and Oscar conflicted was in 2006, when Little Miss Sunshine beat The Departed. But those directors were not nominated for the Oscar so, back then, that made it almost impossible for the film to win Best Picture. Scorsese took the DGA and of course, took the Oscar.

We are flying blind this year because we’ve never seen anything like it.  My fellow Oscar bloggers are convinced that Alfonso Cuaron will win the DGA, then win the Oscar, while either Gravity or 12 Years takes Best Picture.   If Gravity or 12 Years had won the PGA without there being a tie, we might be seeing the setup for a Crash or Shakespeare in Love type situation — where the actors’ choice for ensemble ends up winning Best Picture in a surprise split. That keeps American Hustle still in the hunt, albeit as a dark horse.

Under a preferential ballot split votes are nearly impossible to predict, so we now must look to the DGA to point the way.  The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) will also be voting on their winners, which sometimes can indicate a clue as to how Oscar might go.  But the BAFTAs are held on February 15. Oscar voting deadline is February 25th. It seems like a long time from now, doesn’t it? A lot can happen in a month. Their tastes, however, might give us a better indication of their preference for film of the year.

The three Best Director contenders represent three very different artistic visions. Steve McQueen has directed two films so far, Hunger and Shame. He is one of the few black directors to be revered by film critics.  His 12 Years a Slave was the most talked about film at Telluride and won the audience award in Toronto. It has also won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice.

By contrast, Mexican born Alfonso Cuaron has been directing in Hollywood for years. His Children of Men was likely his most critically acclaimed, along with Y Tu Mama Tambien. He is part of the Mexican New Wave of cinema which also includes Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Guillermo Del Toro.

12 Years a Slave is a film about our American past, the story of slavery told by a black filmmaker.  We’re used to this story being told in the context of the white perspective, like Django Unchained or Gone with the Wind, Amistad, etc.  Those films are often looked upon as white guilt being played out until we no longer feel guilty for what we’ve done.  But McQueen doesn’t tell this story of slavery in a way we’ve seen before.  To award him would be to erase 85 years of 99% white dominated filmmaking in the awards race.  Plenty of Europeans have won the award, British, and now perhaps Mexican. But as yet, no black filmmaker has ever gotten this close.

This year, the Academy took major steps to diversify its membership and even hired, for the first time ever, a female black president.   Their membership is seeking to broaden their voting to more than just reflecting the tastes of middled-aged white men. But they aren’t there yet.  To find the winning film this year we have to once again spelunk into that demographic.

That taste, this year, seems impossible to judge. The actors appear to favor the cast of American Hustle.  The producers just split between Gravity and 12 Years.  Most are saying the DGA will go Cuaron’s way (I am continuing to predicting McQueen because I believe in miracles).  That makes this Best Picture race, for the first time in a long while, too close to call.

Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar

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