Since the SAG awards began 20 years ago, whenever Best Picture and Best Director split, the SAG ensemble foretold Best Picture in every case, except once where the ensemble sided with Best Director.
2012 – SAG ensemble + DGA + PGA = Argo, Ang Lee for Life of Pi, Director
2005 – SAG ensemble + Eddie + WGA = Crash, Brokeback (PGA+WGA+DGA), director
2002 – SAG ensemble + DGA = Chicago, Roman Polanski, director
2000 – PGA+Eddie = Gladiator, SAG ensemble + WGA director (Steven Soderbergh)
1998 – SAG ensemble+WGA = Shakespeare in Love, (PGA+DGA) Steven Spielberg
This year’s SAG ensemble winner? American Hustle. Funny, right? Of course, none of these years represent a preferential ballot, except last year of course! And there has never before been a tie for the PGA.
“My point is that you’d give Apollo 13 a slam dunk win, like how you’re giving the edge to Gravity with even less Guild wins. But apparently AMPAS is not taking outer space movies that seriously. They didn’t feel sympathetic toward Ron Howard’s space adventure like how they felt sympathetic toward Ben Affleck with his director snub last year.”
Exactly…
Unlike Argo, The Artist, The King’s Speech years, there is no consensus pick within the industry. In fact, all the BP nominees are very close in terms of quality. Nine BP nominees will get very close vote totals in the first round and anything can be possible. Yes, a frontrunner can be eliminated even in the first round. I am getting ready for a surprise BP winner.
Just a flashback of Guild showing: 5 films with major guild support
American Hustle: SAG
12 Years a Slave: PGA
Gravity: PGA + DGA
Her: WGA
Captain Phillips: WGA
If Gravity set in space it doesn’t mean that it Sci-Fi.
Stop saying that.
Thing is, the movies listed above also won other important stuff. American Hustle is going to only have SAG and a Golden Globe.
Has any movie won solely with the SAG? I actually have American Hustle as my 4th slot as far as winning Best Pic goes. I think it’s GRAVITY VS. 12 YEARS A SLAVE.
JERRY GRANT
But American Hustle doesn’t quite have that support, and Gravity is ALSO an “important film they respect” more than a “popular film they love.” To me, logic says: 12 Years for the BP win.
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I don’t agree …GRAVITY is a film they love more than they respect …it’s a futuristic Sci-Fi thriller …a movie that is ”respected ” does not do the fantastic worldwide box office numbers that Gravity has …how do you respect a movie that doesn’t even claim to be true and contains scenes that are not even remotely believable ?
…how do you respect a movie that doesn’t even claim to be true and contains scenes that are not even remotely believable ?
sure, “how the heck can anybody respect The Wizard of Oz or Fight Club or Psycho or Sunset Blvd. or Alien or … or… or … sputter … sputter… sputter…”
Robert A, that’s not why I brought up the AD simulated ballot. I brought it up because specifically here in AD, Gravity haters seem to be more vocal. But we shouldn’t take that to mean Gravity is more divisive. In fact, the AD preferential ballot showed the contrary.
For rn I’m still going with Best Picture American Hustle, Best Screenplay American Hustle, but O. Russell has no chance at all, best director is going to Cuaron no doubt about it. It’s too close too call, but I want American Hustle to win!
I feel like 12 Years a Slave is much more divisive than Gravity. First, it’s a movie that in the grand scheme of things wasn’t actually seen by a lot of people. Second, it has been given the “important” tag which I think rubs some people the wrong way. Third, it’s been hyped up like crazy, but I feel like it doesn’t live up to that hype. It’s just ok in my book.
On reflection, Gravity is the sort of movie that is very accessible. It’s lean screenplay and prosaic camera work along with the technical prowess is not to be only assessed as a well made sci fi movie. I am no sci fi fan and certainly not a Sandra Bullock admirer, but i can see the broad appeal of the movie and its symbolism as well as the hero’s journey translating to the voting community as they already have with DGA and PGA strength. Gravity pretty much crosses cultural and linguistic lines and I can see, like The Artist, that a strong contingent will be as swept away by its consummate storytelling and dynamic use of production values. Is it the best movie of the year? Depends on who you are, what you define as ‘best’ and if an overall package is able to be qualified without too much resistance.
I’m finally seeing 12 years tomorrow (it opened here on Thursday), then i feel i can place it in the context of the other strong films this year. It has been really difficult to be circumspect with reading comments and reviews, before actually having the experience myself.
“And Apollo 13 was not the nominations leader (Braveheart was) and missed out on a directing nomination. Braveheart won the WGA and a Globe for directing, so it wasn’t a zero precursor film.”
My point is that you’d give Apollo 13 a slam dunk win, like how you’re giving the edge to Gravity with even less Guild wins. But apparently AMPAS is not taking outer space movies that seriously. They didn’t feel sympathetic toward Ron Howard’s space adventure like how they felt sympathetic toward Ben Affleck with his director snub last year.
Patrick, if I remember correctly, Gravity won over 12 Years a Slave in AD’s preferential ballot by a very small margin. I tend to think that action/thriller/sci-fi movies do unusually well in Internet voting polls when they’re directed by Internet-approved “groundbreaking” directors like Nolan or Cuaron. But if those genres are traditionally less valued by the Academy than the typical movie-fan Internet voter, and if Gravity only won by a tiny margin in AD’s (Internet) ballot, I could see the BP result skewing differently when placed in AMPAS’s hands. But you have a point that 12 Years a Slave could be hurt in redistribution if a sizable number of people haven’t seen it.
“I guess my point is I used to think in order to win best picture, the film has to be nominated for picture, director, screenplay, and editing. That’s how it’s been in recent years, but now I don’t think it matters.”
I still think having those critical nominations are about as important as they always were. Before Argo last year, we have to go all the way back to 1989 (I think) and Driving Miss Daisy to find a BP winner that wasn’t nominated in picture/director/screenplay/editing. Just because Argo last year broke the mode doesn’t automatically erase 23 years where that pattern has held. Your BP winner is still much more likely to have all four of those key nominations than not have them.(By the way, Ordinary People and Annie Hall are two examples of BP winners that didn’t have editing nominations.)
With that said, this year could be another one of those somewhat rare years when the BP winner doesn’t have nominations in the aforementioned four categories. But I agree with Jerry Grant and am betting the farm on 12 Years a Slave.
Jerry Grant, I’d say that neither Gravity nor 12YAS are divisive (Sure, there are a lot of people on AwardsDaily that don’t like Gravity and are very vocal about it, but when Rob simulated the preferential ballot, Gravity’s the one that came out on top). This is what I predict will happen:
1) 12YAS will have the most #1 votes on the first round of voting.
2) Gravity will catch up in redistributions. Not because 12YAS is more divisive, but because a significant amount of people will not have watched it. Gravity will then win on the last round.
You can’t deny that a year as crazy as this one, you’re justified to pull out all kinds of stats from previous years and justify conclusions.
Because that is the case, I stand with what is _intuitively_ right about these three movies and how voting will work in relation to them.
American Hustle — very divisive. Some #1s? Yes. Some #s 6, 7, 8, 9? Yes. (Okay, this could have been the case with Crash too.)
Gravity — also somewhat divisive, even though widely respected. Obviously Cuaron did something amazing. He will probably win director, and even the people who don’t vote for him will acknowledge he deserves to win Best Director. But is it really the best movie of the year to a plurality of people? I just don’t think so. For instance, as a great admirer of Gravity, who would put Cuaron as my #2 choice for director, it is nonetheless my #4 Picture on my list of the 9 nominees. Situations like that (I don’t think I’m an anomaly in those respective rankings) make it clear why Cuaron is in a much stronger place to win Director than Gravity is to win Picture.
12 Years — quite simply, it’s not that divisive. Either #1, #2, or #3 for the year for most people. Plenty will put Gravity, American Hustle, Her, or Wolf of Wall Street at #1… and then put 12 Years for #2 or #3. You can’t deny its greatness and importance, and you can’t get mad at it.
If there was a stronger example of “popular film they love” to compete with the “important film they respect” [12 Years], then I would bet on that popular film. But American Hustle doesn’t quite have that support, and Gravity is ALSO an “important film they respect” more than a “popular film they love.” To me, logic says: 12 Years for the BP win.
@obamawins I understand gravity may not win because it is after all sci-fi and the academy had never given best picture to that genre (though I still predict it will). I guess my point is I used to think in order to win best picture, the film has to be nominated for picture, director, screenplay, and editing. That’s how it’s been in recent years, but now I don’t think it matters. I suppose even when u think u know how the academy votes, you are never 100 percent sure, but it makes it a bit more exciting.
And Apollo 13 was not the nominations leader (Braveheart was) and missed out on a directing nomination. Braveheart won the WGA and a Globe for directing, so it wasn’t a zero precursor film.
Apollo 13, another space adventure, got SAG, PGA, DGA and lost to zero precursor Braveheart.
ObamaWins, being the critics favorite means nothing. And from what we’ve seen so far, Gravity is the industry favorite. AH lost DGA and PGA. 12YAS lost DGA and SAG (a lot of people seem to be downplaying 12YAS’s losses). Gravity wasn’t eligible for SAG but won both DGA and PGA.
Sure, it’s a one-woman sci-fi flick with no screenplay nod. But industry voters have spoken. PGA members aren’t one-sided thinkers; they’re just like you and me, and if they think that a film’s screenplay is too weak, they won’t vote for it for BP, plain and simple. But obviously, they didn’t feel that way about Gravity. Same goes for the DGA (lots of directors consider the DGA a BP prize; hence the reason why it’s such an accurate BP predictor). The point is, industry members have spoken, and they still like Gravity, despite its “flaws”.
So we still have the big 3 contenders for the top 2 prizes! Personally i am still (BAFTA notwithstanding) predicting Gravity for both BP & BD. American Hustle will perhaps take screenplay only.
Matthew & Cate for leads, although Nick Nolte’s name and nomination from 1991 keeps coming back to me, as does the 2 winners before that. Daniel Day Lewis over Tom Cruise in Born on the 4th July; Jeremy Irons over Kevin Costner in Dances with Wolves. Nolte’s loss to Hopkins i recall being a bit of a surprise (although once Silence of the Lambs scooped it made sense) Nolte had a similar career trajectory to Matthew McConaughey. Tom Cruise then the biggest movie star gave a breakout performance in a movie that won Best Director, but Cruise lost to Irish Day Lewis. Costner’s movie went all the way to BP & BD but he lost to another from the United Kingdom – Jeremy Irons. My theory – Chiwitel is still very much in the race. Best Actor could still go to any of 4 of them (Bale is unlikely) but arguments for Dern, Di caprio are there.
ACE will be big this year.
But what’s the moral of the story?
Bryce, Some stories don’t have a moral. Some stories don’t need no stinkin morals. Take American Hustle, for example.
Correction, I meant I don’t think Argo’s best picture win last year is relevant or comparable to Gravity this year, sorry.
@Jon. I don’t think Argo’s best picture win last year is irrelevant to Gravity’s chances. Sasha said the reason Life Of Pi didn’t win best picture was because the Academy knew they made a mistake in snubbing Affleckt, I think that is another black and white overstatement. Asides from that theory, Argo also won PGA and many best picture awards from many critics awards, including BAFTA and BFCA. Wouldn’t what happened to Life of Pi happen to Gravity? Life of Pi even had a screenplay nomination. One simply can’t not use the amount of nominations to determine whether a picture will win best picture anymore. Hugo, Fellowship of the Rings, Lincoln, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button all got the most nominations. Argo is not a sci fi thriller, Arog is not a one woman show, and Argo was clearly the industry and critics favorite, and Gravity is not among critics, and tied with 12 Years at PGA. Sure, anything can happen, but I think it is unlikely that Gravity will pull a win due to its being sci fi. I think if there was an upset, it will be probably American Hustle, but I think that is unlikely either. I could be wrong, so we will see
Before the awards season, I thought 12YAS would win BP and Gravity would win BD.
After all those critics and guild awards, I still think the same.
People should try to feel the current year and forget about history (I KNOW it’s not the case with this article, but that’s what we’ve been seing around here for the past months)
@Obamawins sure there is no screenplay nod for gravity, and 5 years ago I would have agreed that would hurt it’s chances winning best picture, but after last year’s best picture win, which ranked 4th with the most nominations and had no director nod, I would now say anything’s possible, for better or worst.
I have a feeling that American Hustle will take Editing. The voters who love it will support it in many of the categories it’s in. The editing in the movie itself is pretty showy, with all the flashbacks, multiple characters, and voiceovers it has to balance.
The cast of Shakespeare in Love acted rings around the cast of Saving Private Ryan because Shakespeare in Love was an actor’s showcase of dialogue pyrotechnics and Saving Private Ryan had other things on its mind.
I agree. Both films are excellent, but Shakespeare in Love is by far the better acted movie.
There are a couple of brilliant subtle jump-cuts in American Hustle that will have caught the eye of other film editors but I wonder if the casual viewer will consider the thought behind those cuts or — even if they notice — the jarring effect could be seen as just another hiccup in the overall mishmash sensation Russell likes to cultivate.
(also, the cuts I have in mind were planned at the director/cinematography stage of production. After those shots are printed and in the can I doubt the editors had much choice to cut it any other way).
One thing I’m quite sure: if O. Russell wins, rather than Cuaron or McQueen, there’s going to be a backlash around here on AD. [no sarcasm]
I personally would like to see O. Russell win this time at least for his own respective category if not for BP [I have yet to see 12 Years] and some others.
(For good measure, I’ve seen some of Cuaron’s pieces including Children of Men; it just didn’t resonate with me that much like it seemed with many others on AD.)
BUT the fact that O. Russell, did miss it in the end at DGA keeps bugging me at times re his BD Oscar chance, since it apparently helps to lower his chance at Oscar . . . . (So, #for now, I guess, BD is up […] between McQueen and Cuaron – most likely.)
Not feeling this connection here.
The sample size is five, rather small. A couple of those years would be unusual. Argo? While that was under the preferential ballot, last year was going to be a split all the way.
Also Shakespeare in Love was all Harvey’s machine.
I really don’t think that Hustle is going anywhere.
The cast of Shakespeare in Love acted rings around the cast of Saving Private Ryan because Shakespeare in Love was an actor’s showcase of dialogue pyrotechnics and Saving Private Ryan had other things on its mind.
I think they’ll probably toss Best Original Screenplay to American Hustle, but I’d love to be proven wrong and have Her win instead.
I think Oscar pundits, including Sasha, have all over analyzed the race. You simply can’t use past history to make a black and white assumption to predict. That is why Sasha’s being so determined to think Gravity is going to sweep everything is very presumptuous. Sasha totally ignores Gravity’s lack of screenplay nomination and actors, those elements probably hurt Gravity’s best picture chances a great deal. However, a rule can be broken, it just depends on how likely it is. Yes, Cuaron’s has the DGA, but Gravity is a one woman show, a sci fi thriller. I am not sure AMPAS is going to embrace Gravity. We will see. I still think 12 Years will pull a best picture win at the end.
Just a reminder, in case there’s any confusion:
At no point in this very brief piece does Sasha say she thinks past match-ups of the SAG is a reliable predictor of this year’s outcome. In fact, haven’t we seen repeatedly that Sasha is not expecting a director/picture split this year at all.
So how can this factoid piece be construed as overanalysis? It’s just a fact. There’s no analysis going on.
The way I read it, Sasha is just pointing out what happened before. Anyone who wants to use this year’s SAG ensemble award as an indicator of anything is already doing it. Anyone who thinks this year’s SAG ensemble is irrelevant has already decided it’s irrelevant.
My advice: Keep thinking what you already think about American Hustle’s SAG win. Don’t let this article change your mind because it’s not trying to.
You are not alone. I think AH is going to get 0 Oscars.
American Hustle’s SAG ensemble win is being overestimated. We’re in a unique situation this year where the Best Picture frontrunner is literally almost a one-person show…obviously ‘Gravity’ wasn’t on the radar for an ensemble award since there’s no ensemble to speak of. It’s not often that a Best Picture contender is literally unable to compete in an important precursor; I’m even sure what a comparable situation would be, unless you somehow had a BP contender directed by Alan Smithee.
Is it just me, or is American Hustle going 0-for-10? Lawrence could win but she’s behind Lupita at this point….the screenplay could win but that’s a doubt given people’s issues with the script and the Spike Jonze love.