Tonight’s Ace Eddie awards (Editors Guild) will test the power of Gravity – does it have massive pull to continue to dominate this awards season? That will show up tonight when the editors hand out their prize. DGA + Eddie is a powerful combination, as is SAG ensemble + Eddie if American Hustle wins in the comedy category. Gravity is expected to win tonight – should any other film win in the drama department that could mean Best Picture really is up in the air.
But when was the last time a film won Best Picture without a screenplay or a SAG ensemble nod? It has never happened in the history of the Screen Actors Guild, going back to 1995. The only film to win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nod was Braveheart. These are some of the ways a Gravity win would mark a significant break with history where stats are concerned. Last year’s Argo win broke one of the biggest stats — looking back over the last few years The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo’s editing win at the Oscars was one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen, meaning, in a year with nine nominees and a preferential ballot, the film that wins editing wasn’t even nominated for Picture.
But let’s look at a few scenarios from most likely to least likely.
1. American Hustle and Gravity win. Gravity already has 1/2 the PGA and the DGA. It was not nominated for a WGA or an Oscar for writing – significant in and of itself. What does it mean if a movie’s writing is that undervalued? For a Best Picture frontrunner not to have a screenplay nomination is significant, make no mistake. It’s the tech folks, though, that could push Gravity to the win. Remember, Best Picture is almost always determined by the DGA except in the rare case of split years, which are nearly impossible to predict. Everyone seems to agree that American Hustle’s SAG win showed that the actors loved the movie, which they do. We have not seen any other major guild support. That could all change tonight. Armed with a Screenplay nomination at the Oscars, an Eddie and SAG ensemble win, American Hustle sets itself up to be the surprise spoiler.
2. Gravity does not win editing, some other films does, like Captain Phillips for instance. Or Her. That will show love for a film but will not impact the Best Picture race at all except to say that this is more evidence of it being wide open. Gravity needs this win. Can it still win Best Picture without it? Sure. But it is less likely, given the kind of movie that it is — heavy on the tech side of things. Captain Phillips has dazzling, memorable editing, which could give it the win.
3. 12 Years a Slave wins. That would be the most significant and unexpected thing to happen. You can expect this not to happen, barring some off season Christmas miracle. 12 Years is not the kind of movie editors will vote for. Look at their history. They like the crowd pleasers, the consensus votes, which is why they can often predict Best Picture so well. Right now, there are around 6,000 voting members of the Eddie, making them almost the exact same number as the Academy. They do not use the preferential ballot, however. A win for 12 Years would show broad industry support for a struggling underdog. They would choose to vote for the film even if it wasn’t their favorite because they would feel like making history – a win for 12 Years would make it the first film to win the Ace that was directed and written by black filmmakers. It has never happened, and likely never will in my lifetime.
I feel like tonight’s win for Gravity is as inevitable as its eventual Best Picture win. But who knows, right?
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker <—I would shit my pants.
Captain Phillips, Chris Rouse, A.C.E. <—spoiler
Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger <—predicted winner
Her, Eric Zumbrunnen, A.C.E. & Jeff Buchanan
Saving Mr. Banks, Mark Livolsi, A.C.E.
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, A.C.E., Crispin Struthers & Alan Baumgarten, A.C.E. <–predicted winner
August: Osage County, Stephen Mirrione, A.C.E.
Inside Llewyn Davis, Roderick Jaynes
Nebraska, Kevin Tent, A.C.E.
The Wolf of Wall Street, Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E. <—spoiler
BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Despicable Me 2, Gregory Perler, A.C.E
Frozen, Jeff Draheim <—predicted winner
Monsters University, Greg Snyder
BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):
20 Feet from Stardom, Douglas Blush, Kevin Klauber & Jason Ze <–predicted winner
Blackfish, Eli Despres
Tim’s Vermeer, Patrick Sheffield
The Ace Eddies
Won Ace | Won Oscar
2013
12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips |
Gravity | Gravity |
Her | Dallas Buyers Club |
Saving Mr. Banks | |
American Hustle | American Hustle |
August: Osage County | |
Inside Llewyn Davis | |
Nebraska | |
The Wolf of Wall Street |
2012
Argo+ | Argo+ |
Life of Pi* | Life of Pi* |
Lincoln* | Lincoln* |
Skyfall | |
Zero Dark Thirty* | Zero Dark Thirty* |
Silver Linings Playbook* | Silver Linings Playbook* |
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | |
Les Miserables* | |
Moonrise Kingdom | |
Ted |
2011
The Descendants | The Descendants* |
Hugo | Hugo* |
Moneyball | Moneyball* |
War Horse | The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | |
The Artist | The Artist+ |
Young Adult | |
Midnight in Paris | |
Bridesmaids | |
My Week with Marilyn |
2010
The Social Network | The Social Network* |
The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech+ |
Black Swan | Black Swan* |
Inception* | 127 Hours* |
The Fighter | The Fighter* |
Alice in Wonderland | |
Easy A | |
The Kids Are All Right* | |
Made in Dagenam | |
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World |
2009
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
Avatar | Avatar* |
District 9 | District 9* |
Star Trek | Inglourious Basterds* |
Up in the Air* | Precious+ |
The Hangover | |
500 Days of Summer | |
A Serious Man* | |
It’s Complicated | |
Julia & Julia |
2008
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Milk | Milk* |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button* |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon* |
The Dark Knight | The Dark Knight |
Wall-E | |
In Bruges | |
Mamma Mia! | |
Tropic Thunder | |
Vicky Cristina Barcelona |
2007
The Bourne Ultimatum | The Bourne Ultimatum |
Into the Wild | Into the Wild |
Michael Clayton* | Diving Bell |
No Country for Old Men* | No Country for Old Men+ |
There Will Be Blood* | There Will Be Blood* |
Hairspray | |
Juno* | |
Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End | |
Ratatouille | |
Sweeney Todd |
2006
Babel* | Babel* |
Casino Royale | Children of Men |
The Departed* | The Departed+ |
The Queen* | Blood Diamond |
United 93 | United 93 |
Thank You for Smoking | |
The Devil Wears Prada | |
Dreamgirls | |
Little Miss Sunshine* | |
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest |
2005
Brokeback Mountain* | Cinderella Man |
The Constant Gardener | The Constant Gardener |
Crash+ | Crash+ |
Good Night, and Good Luck* | |
Munich* | Munich* |
Charlie and The Chocolate Factory | |
The Family Stone | |
Pride & Prejudice | |
Wedding Crashers | |
Walk the Line | Walk the Line |
2004
Collateral | Collateral |
Finding Neverland* | Finding Neverland* |
Kill Bill Vol. 2 | |
Kinsey | |
Million Dollar Baby* | Million Dollar Baby+ |
The Aviator * | The Aviator* |
De-Lovely | |
Eternal Sunshine | |
The Incredibles | |
Ray* | Ray* |
Sideways* |
2003
Cold Mountain | Cold Mountain |
Master and Commander* | Master and Commander* |
Mystic River* | City of God |
The Return of the King+ | The Return of the King+ |
Seabiscuit* | Seabiscuit* |
(COMEDY OR MUSICAL): | |
Bend It Like Beckham | |
Finding Nemo | |
Lost in Translation* | |
Pirates of the Caribbean | |
School of Rock |
2002
The Hours* | The Hours* |
Gangs of New York* | Gangs of New York* |
About Schmidt | |
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers | Lord of the Rings: Two Towers * |
Minority Report | The Pianist* |
(COMEDY OR MUSICAL): | |
About a Boy | |
Adaptation | |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | |
Chicago+ | Chicago+ |
Punch-Drunk Love |
2001
A Beautiful Mind + | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Black Hawk Down | Black Hawk Down |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone |
|
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring* |
Lord of the Rings* |
Memento | Memento |
(COMEDY OR MUSICAL): |
|
Gosford Park * | |
Amelie | |
Monsters, Inc. | |
Moulin Rouge! * |
Moulin Rouge* |
The Royal Tenenbaums | |
Shrek |
2000
Billy Elliot | Wonder Boys |
Cast Away | |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Gladiator+ | Gladiator+ |
Traffic* | Traffic* |
Film Editing – Musical or Comedy | |
Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
Best In Show | |
Chocolat * | |
O Brother, Where Art Thou? | |
Shanghai Noon |
1999
American Beauty + | American Beauty* |
The Insider* | The Insider* |
The Matrix | The Matrix |
The Sixth Sense * | The Sixth Sense* |
The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Cider House Rules* |
Film Editing – Musical or Comedy | |
Analyze This | |
Being John Malkovich | |
Election | |
Man On the Moon | |
Run Lola Run |
1998
Out Of Sight | Out Of Sight |
Shakespeare In Love + | Shakespeare In Love+ |
The Thin Red Line * | The Thin Red Line* |
Saving Private Ryan * | Saving Private Ryan* |
The Horse Whisperer | Life Is Beautiful* |
1997
Air Force One | Air Force One |
As Good As It Gets * | As Good As It Gets* |
Good Will Hunting * | Good Will Hunting* |
L. A. Confidential * | L. A. Confidential* |
Titanic+ | Titanic+ |
1996
The English Patient+ | The English Patient+ |
Evita | Evita |
Fargo * | Fargo* |
Shine * | Shine* |
The Rock | Jerry Maguire* |
1995
Braveheart+ | Braveheart+ |
Apollo 13 * | Apollo 13* |
Crimson Tide | Crimson Tide |
The Usual Suspects | Babe* |
Casino | Se7en |
Comprehensive Chart:
Won ACE | Won Oscar *Nominated for Best Picture
+Won Best Picture
-Won ACE/Oscar for editing but not nominated
for Best Pic
Check out the seven year
streak from 1990 on.
2013: | |
2012: Argo | Argo+ |
2011: The Artis+t/Descendants* | The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo |
2010: The Social Network | The Social Network* |
2009: The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
2008: Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
2007: Bourne Ultimatum | Bourne |
2006: The Departed | The Departed+ |
2005: Crash/Walk the Line | Crash+ |
2004: The Aviator/Ray* | The Aviator* |
2003: Return of the King/Pirates of the Caribbean | Return of the King+ |
2002: Gangs of New York*/Chicago | Chicago+ |
2001: Black Hawk Down/Moulin Rouge* | Black Hawk Down |
2000: Gladiator/Almost Famous | Traffic* |
1999: The Matrix/Being John Malkovich |
The Matrix- |
1998: Saving Private Ryan |
Saving Private Ryan* |
1997: Titanic | Titanic+ |
1996: The English Patient |
The English Patient+ |
1995: Braveheart | Braveheart+ |
1994: Forrest Gump |
Forrest Gump+ |
1993: Schindler’s List |
Schindler’s List+ |
1991: Unforgiven | Unforgiven+ |
1990: Dances With Wolves |
Dances With Wolves+ |
1989: Glory– | Born on the Fourth of July* |
1988: Mississippi Burning* |
Who Framed Roger Rabbit- |
1987: The Last Emperor |
The Last Emperor+ |
1986: Platoon | Platoon+ |
1985: Witness | Witness* |
1984: Amadeus+ | The Killing Fields* |
1983: War Games- |
The Right Stuff* |
1982: Gandhi | Gandhi+ |
1981: Raiders of the Lost Ark |
Raiders of the Lost Ark* |
1980: Raging Bull |
Raging Bull * |
1979: All That Jazz |
All That Jazz* |
1978: The Deer Hunter+ |
The Deer Hunter+ |
1977: The Turning Point+ |
Star Wars* |
1976: Rocky | Rocky+ |
1975: Jaws | Jaws* |
1974: The Longest Yard- |
Towering Inferno* |
1973: The Sting |
The Sting+ |
1972: Cabaret | Cabaret* |
1971: Summer of ’42- |
French Connection+ |
1970: Patton+ | Patton+ |
1969: Hello Dolly* |
Z* |
1968: Bullit- | Bullit- |
1967: The Dirty Dozen- |
In the Heat of the Night+ |
1966: Fantastic Voyage- |
Grand Prix- |
1965: Sound of Music |
Sound of Music+ |
1964: Mary Poppins |
Mary Poppins* |
1963: How the West Was Won |
How the West Was Won* |
1962: The Longest Day |
Lawrence of Arabia+ |
1961: The Parent Trap | West Side Story+ |