Instead of editorializing and trying to spin these results, we’ll just present the fruits of Rob’s monumental efforts, step back, and let each of you tease out your own interpretation. There are a lot of interesting patterns I see emerge, but I found those patterns on my own and that made the strokes and jolts of discovery uniquely my own. I wouldn’t want to try guide anyone to see the same things I see. More fun for you to find your own points for reassurance. More instructive to confront your own trepidations.
Preferential Ballot Results, Best Picture
Simulated Ballot Results, All Other Categories
My predictions on how the order of the awards will prevail
President of the academy comes out to do her speech
Bette midler and pinks musical tribute to movie heroes
Ellen’s opening monologue
Best suppoeting actress
Sound mixing
sound editing
Documentary feature
Documentary short subject
Phillip Seymour hoffman tribute
Supporting actor
Makeup
Visual effects
Animated feature
Animated short film
Live action short film
Cinematography
Original song
Costume design
Art direction
Foreign language film
In memoriam
Original score
Actress
Actor
Adapted screenplay
Original screenplay
Film editing
Director
Picture
Predictedxrunning time 3 hours and 45 minutes
“I’m very happy to hear that. I had to figure there are other Hobbit fans out there. Sometimes I think the critics get off turning fine cuisine into oatmeal.”
Yeah, I definitely don’t get what people don’t like about it. I mean, sure, it’s not as dark or fascinating as the LotR movies, but not by THAT much… It’s still an extremely good (and awesome, I might add) fantasy movie. It’s my 3rd favorite movie of 2012.
“We’ll see, but I think we have more of a 3 horse race that people are giving credit”
I’ve always agreed with this. However, unless American Hustle actually wins, most people will just shrug off this notion in coming years, even though right now there’s no logical way of eliminating it from the discussion.
“12 Years a Slave is arguably the only “downer” pic that made the BP cut this year (Fruitvale, LLewyn, etc, were worthy, but did not have the support). This shows that the focus is more on entertainment than provoking thought or examining social woes.”
Very good observation, sadly… This, along with the tendencies Ryan talks about in his post, might be a clue that one needs to also look at the overall tone/style/approach of the 9 nominees and see which of the favorites is closer in style to more of the movies likely to get eliminated in the first 7 rounds. It might be that, of the favorites, the movies that are less similar to more of those are less likely to win.
Makes sense, really, that the more liked type of movie would have more representatives in the BP field and, also, would be more likely to win than the movie with the less popular approach.
But is Gravity that more liked type? Within the Academy? Is it really similar in tone to more of the other nominees, or is 12 Years? Probably Gravity, but I think it’s highly debatable. The preferential ballot might favor Gravity somewhat, but the Academy’s overall tendencies might favor 12 Years a Slave. It’s not clear either way.
“it’s no surprise that voters inclined to like the most rollicking frivolous movie (American Hustle) would not be drawn to the movie that’s the antithesis of rollicking or frivolous (12 Years).”
I count 21 American Hustle votes gained by Gravity, and 15 gained by 12 Years a Slave. So it’s more like 58%-42%, which is not nearly as significant as 68%-32%, not to mention that it’s a pretty small sample size (36 votes out of 1172). It’s sure to be far more with the Academy (at least 10-15% of the total number of votes), who obviously loved AH much more than AD’s readership.
“So, to put it bluntly, anyone who hopes 12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture should be prepared for the possibility that the ballots of David O Russel fans will fuck things up.”
That’s a discouraging way to put it. It’ll be bad enough if 12 Years doesn’t win, but to know it was David O. Russell’s fault! Ahhhhh… 🙂
“One category that should be included (and perhaps next year you will?) is filmmakers/artists (people who are creative, have involved in films, theaters, and especially acting, etc.). Since a majority of voters in the Academy are creative people (the nuts and bolts producers and PR’s are small in numbers), sampling of similar types of voters will shed better lights in the outcome.”
I second that suggestion!
“Still, if Nebraska takes Cinematography, Original Screenplay and Lead Actor… there’s a chance it may jump to Best Picture, too.”
Well, if all of those happen, which is insanely unlikely and verging on the impossible, then, yes, I suppose, at that point, a BP win by Nebraska as well wouldn’t really be such a big surprise anymore.
“It’s #2 or #3 on most cathegories it’s nominated (but director).”
But it’s way, way behind the favorites in each of them…
Truth is, that we could see either of these three coming:
12 Years a Slave: Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and 1 technical (or Director in an upset). We are aiming to a 3-6 Oscas victory, top.
Gravity: Picture, Director, a sh*tload of technicals. Probably 6-9 Oscars. Would be even to win each one of them but Actress.
American Hustle: Picture, Original Screenplay and one more, most likely either Amy Adams or Jennifer Lawrence in an upset, which wouldn’t really shock us.
Still, if Nebraska takes Cinematography, Original Screenplay and Lead Actor… there’s a chance it may jump to Best Picture, too. It’s #2 or #3 on most cathegories it’s nominated (but director).
Still, while I am still predicting “12 Years a Slave” to win, there’s the obvious fear that the Acting Branch and the buzz about AMPAS members rejecting to actually watch the film might favor “American Hustle” in a big way and we’re about to witness not a “Brokeback Mountain”, but a “The Color Purple”
“How i would rank the 85 best picture winners…
85. Roman holiday”
Yikes, that’s harsh. Especially considering it didn’t win Best Picture.
But more to the point of this article, I find the most interesting Best Picture matrix to be the last one, where he eliminated votes for films people hadn’t seen. In the results, Gravity lost a total of 8 votes. 12 Years lost 66 (!!) and thus lost Best Picture. That suggests that a number of people – 66, to be precise – voted for 12 Years (and ranked it ahead of Gravity) without having seen it. Will this happen with the Academy, or is it just a symptom of AD readers having been pummeled with guilt?
or is it just a symptom of AD readers having been pummeled with guilt?
yah, if there’s one thing we know about AD readers it’s how much they do not react favorably to pummeling.
like no humans do. and that’s why nobody with a brain is going to vote on the basis of “white guilt” — because “white guilt” is a myth created by closet bigots.
wherever I hear somebody say “white guilt” it’s as if they’re flaunting their CLOSET BIGOT tattoo in my face.
Joe,
Your #85 pick did not win Best Picture. That was From Here to Eternity.
How i would rank the 85 best picture winners
1. The lord of the rings: the return of the king
2. Lawrence of arabia
3. Braveheart
4. The sound of music
5. Marty
6. West side story
7. The godfather part 1
8. Patton
9. Casablanca
10. Schindlers list
11. Annie hall
12. Rain man
13. The godfather part 2
14. Rocky
15. It happened one night
16. Wings
17. The artist
18. The apartment
19. In the heat of the night
20. Titanic
21. Gladiator
22. The broadway melody
23. An american in paris
24. The greatest show on earth
25. Grand hotel
26. Cirammon
27. All the kings men
28. Tom jones
29. The last emperor
30. Forrest gump
31. Chicago
32. the departed
33. Slumdog millionaire
34. Mrs. miniver
35. The silence of the lambs
36. Unforgiven
37. How green was my valley
38. mutiny on the bounty
39. The great ziegfield
40. platoon
41. All quiet on the western front
42. Million dollar baby
43. Terms of endearment
44. ordinary people
45. A man for all seasons
46. A beautiful mind
47. The lost weekend
48. The life of emile zola
49. You cant take it with you
50. Ben hur
51. the kings speech
52. the best years of our lives
53. Hamlet
54. american beauty
55. Gone with the wind
56. argo
57. Gandhi
58. The deer hunter
59. Shakespeare in love
60. Rebbeca
61. No Country for old men
62. Around the world in 80 days
63. The hurt locker
64. Dance with wolves
65. Driving miss daisy
66. Crash
67. Gentlemens agreement
68. The french connection
69. One flew over the cuckoos nest
70. Kramer vs. Kramer
71. Midnight cowboy
72. The english patient
73. Chariots of fire
74. My fair lady
75. The sting
76. Oliver
77. All about eve
78. On the waterfront
79. Amadeus
80. Gigi
81. Cavaclade
82. Gaslight
83. out of africa
84. going my way
85. Roman holiday
“I have to wonder if Academy members over the age of 56 age are as sophisticated and conscientious as our older AD readers.”
Good point, Ryan, although I’d use the words “interested” and “cognizant” instead of sophicated and conscientious.
The really old set will most certainly have seen screeners, and that will bode badly for Gravity. Although he’s nowhere near that threshold, my partner saw Gravity for the first time at home – and fell asleep. The impact totally relies on the venue in which it is seen. Seeing it at home, I think we who have seen it in its intended format cut the film a lot more slack than someone watching it on a TV screen (or smaller) for the first time.
In that regard, it’s quite possible that American Hustle could be more than a spoiler.
“American Hustle could be more than a spoiler…”
at this point maybe nothing could please me more than watching the Academy shit its britches in front of a billion viewers.
Once again, great to go through the breakdowns.
One category that should be included (and perhaps next year you will?) is filmmakers/artists (people who are creative, have involved in films, theaters, and especially acting, etc.). Since a majority of voters in the Academy are creative people (the nuts and bolts producers and PR’s are small in numbers), sampling of similar types of voters will shed better lights in the outcome.
I think?
So fucking sad:
http://thefilmstage.com/news/gene-hackman-reminds-us-that-hell-never-act-again/
“Alexander Payne attempted to hunt him down for Nebraska”
I dream of what could have been!
Phillip- yeah, it somewhat weakens criticism of the academy in many cases. I mean when every single voting group is picking the artist, is the academy an idiot for picking the artist, or is society? Etc
Sure, there are Crash years, but…
The interesting thing to me is, how strong the consenus works when it comes to awards, even on awardsdaily. The winners here are expected to take home the Oscar on Sunday night (except for Leo). And best picture is too close to call.
Ryan- I think you’re absolutely correct that American Hustle votes will go more for Gravity. As a fan of Gravity it makes me somewhat nauseous but it’s the truth and it played out in our own simulated ballot.
And thanks for building such a gay friendly site!
A bit late, but I too have to commend Rob Y for the effort and the beautiful charts!
Steve50 — good comments.
I am not at all surprised that most people on here are male, and many are gay.
It is a very “male” thing to obsess about hierarchies, rankings, lists, statistics. That’s one of the reasons guys like sports. And why it is all guys in specialty record shops looking for the long lost Left Banke album or a pristine 7″ copy of Crabby Appleton’s first single. And why 99.9% of the top 10 and top 100 lists of anything any time in history have been made by men.
And obsessing about movie awards is simply the gay male version of this phenomenon.
And I’m allowed to make these kinds of gross over generalizations because I am both.
Any gay guy who’s visited a few of the top movie blogs will know that it doesn’t take very long to see which ones are gay-friendly and which ones are borderline or overtly gay-antagonistic.
Some sites have no discernible gay presence at all. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. But if we want to be part of a group with similarities to the Academy, it would be clueless to deny that a gay presence is an essential component of Hollywood collaborative creativity.
Credit to Sasha for building a site where anyone can feel comfortable. Openness, tolerance and diversity is what makes Awards Daily so special — in fact, fairly unique. If it’s a boy’s club, then unlike other fratboy sites, I think AD is the sort of boy’s club where girls don’t feel threatened.
Anyway, I was out of the country for a few years and I had never even heard the phrase “rock with our cocks out” until I saw Sasha say it on the home page here.
Fantastic job, Rob, as usual.
Here’s what I see in these results:
No question, 12 Years and Gravity are close in our poll. The problem is, our mean average age on the site is considerably younger than the Academy. If you weight these results according to the average AMPAS member age, which is over 55, it looks good for 12 Years a Slave.
However – this is key – likely most of the voters saw the nominees on screeners. This is really bad news for Gravity as its accomplishments do not stand up outside the 3D theatre. I just watched the film at home and the experience does not translate. While one can still appreciate Cuaron’s work in pulling all the elements together, the end result only has impact when seen in its intended environment. This will definitely factor in with those voters who are considering making the historical choice of awarding an effects-heavy film. It didn’t work for Pi last year and I don’t know that Gravity has the same depth outside its considerable technical wonders.
You would think that this is good news for 12 Years, but I doubt it. There is the baggage of those who refuse to see it combined with the habit of voters jumping at more entertaining entries in the past. Do they want to award a film that people need to be convinced to see? A hardcore sector of older voters obviously think so, but is it large enough to pick up the Gravity fallout voters in the screener crowd?
So what film benefits, plays well at home, fits the “entertainment” role? You got it – American Hustle. Giggles, nostalgia that aims squarely at the majority demographic (the “weren’t we cute back then” factor) and causes nobody any pain.
12 Years a Slave is arguably the only “downer” pic that made the BP cut this year (Fruitvale, LLewyn, etc, were worthy, but did not have the support). This shows that the focus is more on entertainment than provoking thought or examining social woes. It isn’t so much about voter “savvy” as it is about voter self-image.
12 Years overcame that with its massive historical importance and legacy, but can it translate to a BP win? Can you put metal in a microwave? We’ll see, but I think we have more of a 3 horse race that people are giving credit, and it’s the older voter who selects which screener(s) HE wants to watch that will decide this race.
[I’m going to cross-post this comment in two articles because I see the conversations are leaking off topic and it would be good to bring the ballot discussion back here]
steve50, It’s encouraging to see AD reader participants over the age of 56 leaned strongly toward 12 Years a Slave. But after what we heard yesterday, I have to wonder if Academy members over the age of 56 age are as sophisticated and conscientious as our older AD readers.
We’re also not seeing the numbers of another age group: those over the age of 75.
Another troubling thing that Rob and Marshall and I talked about in email exchange when Rob first showed us his preliminary BP breakdown: We noticed in each round of distribution, how 12 Years and Gravity each picked up a fairly equal number of votes from each movie that was eliminated.
This held true for Her, Captain Phillips, Nebraska — all the other nominees except for one…
so, uh-oh… then we observed what happened when American Hustle was eliminated. The Hustle ballots were not distributed equally. In fact, those Hustle ballots went for Gravity by a 2 to 1 margin. Something like 68% of the Hustle ballots went for Gravity and just 32% of the Hustle ballots went for 12 Years a Slave.
That’s the only round of preferential balloting that caused a major disruption to the fragile balance.
I say that’s not surprising — it’s no surprise that voters inclined to like the most rollicking frivolous movie (American Hustle) would not be drawn to the movie that’s the antithesis of rollicking or frivolous (12 Years).
Not that Gravity is a rollicking funtime romp. Not at all. But at times it’s a circus thrill ride. And so is American Hustle (though Hustle is more of a clown show).
So that’s not good news for 12 Years supporters. But it’s a good sign for Gravity supporters.
Let me just say again though: I don’t think Gravity is a light frolic. I think it can be enjoyed on many levels — and one of those levels is the level of a wild ride. Nobody will ever accuse 12 Years a Slave of being a wild ride.
I’m not worried about the redistribution of ballots for any other round when any other movies are eliminated, because those ballots fall equally in either stack — Gravity or 12 Years.
But 12 Years will need to have established a strong headstart to survive the blow it will get when the ballots for American Hustle are redistributed.
So, to put it bluntly, anyone who hopes 12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture should be prepared for the possibility that the ballots of David O Russel fans will fuck things up.
Adam,
Those that saw 5, 6, 7, and 8 films went for Gravity.
To me the most interesting result from this exercise is that it is a TIGHT race between 12 Years and Gravity mirroring the precursors.
On a smaller scale, Her voters went for 12 Years over Gravity while American Hustle voters went for Gravity. If I had to guess, I would have reversed that.
This is “definitely definitely” a great scene!! Yay K-Mart!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if8dDNhaea0
Adam,
You’re “definitely definitely”. But seriously, that’s cool that you figured that out. I don’t have the “aptitude” for numbers like these. It’s a gift you were given. Enjoy it! 🙂
It’s a little too late at night for me to wrap my head around this fact, but I found the most fascinating charts to be the “Have seen _______ film” charts. Every. Single. One. Went for 12 Years. What does it mean???
Also, the fact that Her came in third in all of those charts (except for Wolf) and in 6 out of the 9 charts Her’s votes pushed 12 Years into first ahead of Gravity in the final voting!
Seriously. I need someone great at stats to tell me if there’s anything interesting to note there or if I’m just being the Rain Man.
Four days and counting…
Claudiu Dobre,
I’m very happy to hear that. I had to figure there are other Hobbit fans out there. Sometimes I think the critics get off turning fine cuisine into oatmeal.
“I do however myself have great hope that I will like The Desolation of Smaug, considering I was one of the few who liked An Unexpected Journey.”
I loved The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey the first time, and then even more the 2nd and 3rd times I saw it.
But, I have to be honest, I haven’t seen The Desolation of Smaug yet. I was going to see it, when I thought it might have stood a better chance of being a Best Picture contender that the first one. But then the same marginal reviews came in, and it scared me away. So, now it’s the end of February, and I won’t see it until it come out on Blu-ray in April. I do however myself have great hope that I will like The Desolation of Smaug, considering I was one of the few who liked An Unexpected Journey.
Rob Y,
All I can say to that is: Wow!
But, then again…Let me guess, they voted The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug as the best visual effects, but thought that the movie itself wasn’t as good. I can see how it’s possible that someone could think like that. Peter Jackson did hire a great staff down there in New Zealand. (But, I could be wrong, and they didn’t pick The Hobbit)
Ha! I just found out that the Y in (Rob Y) stands for Whoeveryouare. Who knew?
Al,
The funny thing is that there was one person who voted for Gravity for #1, but chose something else for special effects.
(Of course, the 95.7% was for Gravity.)
Holy shit! 95.7% for Special effects. C’mon people, everyone knows the best special effects were in Nebraska!! 😉
I think the most interesting thing that stuck out to me is that the majority of the folks that participated in the survey were men. Since Sasha is about as pro-feminist as you can get (not a bad thing), I really expected more respondents (and visitors to the site) to be women. About half of the respondents were non hetero-sexual, which looks like Sasha’s liberalism and appeal to the GLBT community has paid off as far as attracting that community to the site (again not a bad thing at all, just observation)
No love for AH from this site …
Gays love Cate Blanchett! Who knew? (Well, I guess everybody). It’s not that surprising they’re choosing Leto more than straight people as well, for obvious reasons.
I loved Her sweeping Original Screenplay, too bad it won’t be like that at the Oscars.
I found interesting that McConaughey won over Di Caprio among older voters, I suppose it reflects how it will go in the AMPAS. He was actually 3rd among the 56+ crowd.
It also should be noticed that among the close to the Academy group, Gravity won with ease. It may mean nothing, but…
Thank you guys for putting this together again this year. What did I do for the Oscars before discovering this site?
Wow! I love looking at the results. Rob Whoeveryouare, thanks for the comprehensive breakdown!
Awardsdaily is awesome!
“Also look at the last chart in the Best Picture sheet. I was able to remove votes for films not seen. Gravity wins by 53 votes. This says a lot of people have not seen 12 Years and are still voting for it.”
I thought that was the most interesting thing about this simulation as well!
The only troubling breakdown for 12 Years a Slave is the ‘Close to Academy’ one. It might be important or it might not. However, everything else is pretty encouraging, including the number of
sight-unseen votes it’s getting. I would definitely say it’s exceeded expectations here as well, like it’s been doing all season. The fact that it’s an AD-organized poll I don’t think is key here – last year, while ZDT won, Argo did way, way better than both Lincoln and Life of Pi. Yes, the Argo that was getting panned here on a daily basis, vs. Sasha’s darling, Lincoln. This year, though… there’s definitely love for 12 Years a Slave.
“I wonder, would fans of a particular movie feel better or worse if the Academy released voting numbers?”
It’s probably more fascinating the way it is now. All losing BP nominees are more or less equal and I think this raises the prestige of being nominated. I somewhat favor the secrecy, for this reason alone. But there are pros and cons, of course…
There were nearly 1200 voters in this simulation and only 27 were Black/African?
Eek.
“I cannot believe the Academy will vote for a 3 hour film about a political and humanitarian outrage in Indonesia in the 60s.”
Yeah, the theatrical release of THE ACT OF KILLING (and the version I received as a screener) was about 2 hours. Thanks for playing though.
—-
On topic: It’s interesting to see how many people seemed to have voted a straight ticket. I picked THE WOLF OF WALL STREET in all five of its categories and it looks like I wasn’t alone. Same trend for DALLAS BUYERS CLUB and 12 YEARS A SLAVE.
@Ryan
Thanks. (Fair enough. Please keep us posted.)
(You need to understand that I’m so poor that I truly madly deeply need special, additional attention, as well as human touch, the latter a la the Boss . . . . )
—
OT:
It’s been reported recently that Sandra Bullock could possibly earn up to 70M US dollars or more of her gross income including her pro rentals, for her acting in Gravity, after all worldwide theatrical screenings revenue supposedly is factored in.
This reportedly #excludes home entertainment, TV, etc.!
I’m wondering what Angelina Jolie could possibly think . . . . xD
(Joking aside, these people are uber rich; I won’t be surprised if Jolie just basically shrugs it off [though not in contempt].)
Well, Sasha’s tastes are far from girlie. Scorsese, The Hurt Locker, Lincoln, 12 Years, No Country. No Notebook for her. I like that about her. It makes sense she would attract a lot of men.
This made me laugh a lot: ” but I imagine a lot of them are busy taking care of helpless spoiled men, leaving the women not a lot of free time to wank around in the comments”
Ain’t that the truth
Yeah I was wondering if it’s a internet thing and the internet just breaks down with that kind of male/female ratio.
“…was wondering if the internet just breaks down with that kind of male/female ratio…”
EVERYTHING breaks down with imbalanced male/female ratio. Business, politics, culture, society — not enough women and the whole precarious facade breaks down
That’s why I always defer to you like you’re one of the hive’s queen bees, Antoinette.
@Ryan
It’s also curious you’ve skillfully managed seemingly to put me on an unofficial Ignore list despite my second attempt […] . . . .
“500 guys measuring each other’s dicks in the comments and 1 girl standing by with a wet-wipe.”
Ryan, you crack me up!!! 🙂 By FAR the comment of the year!! LOL 🙂
[Re-posting]
@Ryan
One quick question: when is the deadline for submitting the (AD) Oscar predictions?
JPNS Viewer, I was just trying to nail down an answer for you. Still not certain.
But here’s my best guess. You can make your predictions right up until the moment the first award is handed out on Sunday night. After the awards are under way, the AD Oscar prediction window slams shut.
As soon as I get confirmation of that, I’ll be back with the definitive answer, ok?
It is curious that there are so few women voters on a female run site. What does it all mean? It looks like only one chick voted for PHILOMENA and her 2nd favorite was WOLF OF WALL STREET. I find that funny.
It is curious that there are so few women voters on a female run site.
It’s curious until you realize studios started pandering to disproportionate male enthusiasm for movies about 35 years ago.
It’s curious until you go to a site like Hollywood Elsewhere where there are 500 guys measuring each other’s dicks in the comments and 1 girl standing by with a wet-wipe.
We might have a lot more female readers than we realize — but I imagine a lot of them are busy taking care of helpless spoiled men, leaving the women not a lot of free time to wank around in the comments.
This is so cool – the charts and the outcoming, even if I would have voted for Gravity (was too busy und lazy this year ;). But this so close, how could I complain? And 12 Years a Slave would be my Best Picture choice in nearly every year of the past two decades. It’s such a pity, that these two have to “compete” against each other.
Gravity was ahead by 1 vote before the last round. I wonder if it will take that many rounds for the academy to come up with a winner.
The academy does not give us the breakdown of the voting because Price Waterhouse puts the names of the winners in the envelopes and does not give out any other results.
I still think 12 years a slave will win best picture and Steve McQueen will win best director.
Yikes. Too close for comfort! 4 votes??? That’s as good as a tie.
These charts are super interesting. I like the little interesting facts like, South Americans prefer _Wolf of Wall Street_, and Middle Easterners prefer _Her_. Also, it’s weird how people that have seen 5 to 8 of the films vote towards _Gravity_, but those who have seen all 9 vote towards _12 Years_.
But the biggest surprise for me is that there are at least 10 times as many men as women here. Wow.
“Millennials seem to be pulling for 12 Years a Slave, Boomers went for Gravity, but Gen X is split.”
^This is the most stark and telling distinction to me. Unlike the other categories, here the differences are distinct. 60 votes in favor of _12 Years_ among 25 and under, almost 50 votes in favor of _Gravity_ among 26-35. Strange. Somewhat split after that, except 56 and over seems to prefer _12 Years_, though it’s a small sample size (in keeping with my sense that _Gravity_ doesn’t do as well among older voters).
Kudos to Rob. Kudos to all participants, as well.
Thanks for posting the simulation results. And I’m glad both Her and Hustle fared well at least as far as the final five goes.
(Unfortunately, I decidedly didn’t participate despite my affinity because I felt I had not seen enough at that time, especially out of the BP nominees. [For the record, off the Oscar BP list, so far I’ve finally managed to catch up with six out of nine films, plus those nominated in other categories and, naturally, other films outside the awards season as a moviegoer.])
—
@Ryan
One quick question: when is the deadline for submitting the (AD) Oscar predictions?
(There’s no point for me to procrastinate any more since I won’t be able to get to see the other three out of nine BP nominees in time before the ceremony. So, #if it’s still up […], I’d like to be part of it.)
Wow, only four votes separated 12YAS from Gravity in the overall balloting. It is really anyone’s game come Oscar night.
I wonder, would fans of a particular movie feel better or worse if the Academy released voting numbers? Like, could Gravity fans feel okay if they lost the real Best Picture by only four votes, or would it make it hurt so much more? (I can see why AMPAS doesn’t do this, by the way. No need to take away from a movie’s win if it turns out they only won by a few or even one vote.)
I wonder, would fans of a particular movie feel better or worse if the Academy released voting numbers?
Speaking for myself, yes, I would feel better and I would feel worse.
The same way we see athletes at the Olympics who miss getting onto the medal podium by 1/10th of a second. On the one hand there’s the pride of knowing you came so close, but then there’s the agony of knowing you came so close.
Jay it may have something to do with Sasha’s theory of how academy members vote- they want to be entertained they’ve had hard lives and don’t want to be reminded of how human nature can suck. They want a kitten in a tea cup to steal her line
I agree with you, Keifer. Five Best Picture nominees was plenty.
I’m surprised that there were so few women voters. Surly this website has a larger female readership than this poll indicates?
Quite a roller coaster ride in the Best Picture category among age groups. I can’t understand why respondents under 26 and between 36 and 45 would go for 12 Years a Slave while respondents between 26 and 35 and those over 45 would go for Gravity. Millennials seem to be pulling for 12 Years a Slave, Boomers went for Gravity, but Gen X is split.
What this tells me is how tight between 12 Years and Gravity. This definitely puts the PGA into perspective. To have it come down to less than a half of a percent of the votes (4 to be exact) speaks volumes.
Also look at the last chart in the Best Picture sheet. I was able to remove votes for films not seen. Gravity wins by 53 votes. This says a lot of people have not seen 12 Years and are still voting for it.
The most interesting is how the breakdown by age went down.
I think what likely won’t correspond to AMPAS stats are those high numbers for HER and WOLF– I wonder which movies are going to score those all important #3 and #4 places and I’d that will have any impact on the victor.
Unsurprised by how close “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” panned out.
Surprised by the great response for “Her”.
Surprised by a relatively lackluster result for “American Hustle”.
Surprised by the very few votes for “Dallas Buyers Club”. (That could spell a little trouble for McConaughey and Leto.)
Was pleased with the strong showing for “The Wolf of Wall Street”.
I hate to harp on this all the time, but I so wish the Academy would go back to having just five Best Picture nominees.
Fascinating charts.
— I can’t believe the Academy supports Her as much as the (probably younger and more film savvy) AD voters.
— if it is this close for BP, I’m wondering (even more) whether the Academy will go for Gravity, My “sense” (sorry Ryan!) is that AD voters will like 12YaS more than the Academy.
— Sorry, I am still sticking with 20 Feet from Stardom in documentary. I cannot believe the Academy will vote for a 3 hour film about a political and humanitarian outrage in Indonesia in the 60s. Look at the past winners.
— I still think that Barkad Abdi could upset in Supp Actor.
Half is too few. I am surprised
Wow who knew half of us on this site were gay? Weird 😉
Also, has there ever been such a close total outcome? I mean this is basically a tie, within the margin of error so to speak
bi’s for GRAVITY!
(I’m not)
Absolutely fascinating. Thanks Ryan. Even with the Awards Daily demography not being completely representative of the Academy its fascinating to see that the Best Picture win came down to so few votes.
Going to be a nail biter for sure. Will the AMPAS mostly male membership tip things in GRAVITY’s direction? Interesting to see the gender divide in this survey.