The air in Los Angeles turned cold just as November arrived and with it the AFI Fest, the season’s last gasp before the film critics start tallying up the year’s successes. A Most Violent Year will get its world premiere, finally. The JC Chandor film, like the rest of the last remainders will get a chance to be showcased and reviewed before voting.
The New York Film Critics will be the first out of the gate, just one day ahead of the National Board of Review. For the past two years the New York Film Critics have pronounced a film that hadn’t yet been seen widely by other critics or bloggers Best Picture of the Year, thus launching it into the Best Picture race. They did this with Zero Dark Thirty in 2012 and with American Hustle in 2013.
Both films were shortly thereafter dismantled. Zero Dark Thirty was attacked by Glenn Greenwald and Andrew Sullivan (who attacked it before seeing it then retracted it) – which turned into a firestorm of controversy making a film that was as high as you can get heading into Oscar voting to one that barely survived a Best Picture nomination. It only won an Oscar for Best Sound Editing, which is a bit of a disgrace for such a deserving film.
American Hustle was riding high for a while there until people started figuring out that its plot made no sense and there wasn’t much there there except flash and style. But oh what flash and oh what style! That perception floated it for a while but come Oscar night the film won not a single Oscar.
It is always a risky gamble opening a late-breaking film. You have to have big clout, like Martin Scorsese or David O. Russell or Kathryn Bigelow clout. You have to be a movie people will put right on top of the screener pile to make it in the last stretch. It worked out pretty well for The Wolf of Wall Street but that was because it took Martin Scorsese himself, and a few fierce advocates for the film to help bypass the growing (albeit flaccid) controversy that it glamorized rich assholes, when in fact, it did anything but. But Oscar voters went for it big time with 5 major nominations but in the end it, too, would go home empty-handed.
We’ve not had a film rally towards any major wins to open late since Clint Eastwood did it back it in 2004 with Million Dollar Baby, a full decade ago and a world away from how the Oscars are decided now.
This year, there are two big names dropping in at the last minute, Clint Eastwood with American Sniper and Angelina Jolie with Unbroken. Their places are already being held in line in case their films live up to the hype. Jolie is such a big star she will have no trouble getting people to attend screenings of her film, as long as she’s there to talk about it. Perhaps that’s why no one is seeing Unbroken until the end of this month. The film will have to be all that and a bag of chips to launch into the Oscar race. On the other hand, her star-power alone could launch it sight unseen by voters eager to have Jolie (and Pitt) at their awards show.
Selma will show footage at AFI. The Homesman, Foxcatcher and Birdman will get another chance to whip up buzz and excitement to a weary awards-watching community. Like Mark Harris is always saying, Oscar voters haven’t even considered voting yet. They’re just wandering around town living their lives, making plans to fly out of town for the holidays, maybe bring a pile of screeners with them. The screener pile usually settles things as those who write about the Oscars have helped get people to maybe be interested in watching the films they at least know they’re supposed to watch. Even then it’s difficult to get them to watch anything that doesn’t look like the kind of movie you’d want to sit down with the family in front a crackling fire, the cooked goose digesting happily in the stomach, brandy warming the cockles of the heart. And on goes the movie to make the holiday picture complete.
That voters must watch films over the holiday break could explain, more than anything else, why the films are so uplifting and feel-goody every year with increasing frequency. The feel-bad films or the “I don’t know what I’m supposed to feel” films don’t get chosen and the ones that make us all look a lot better than we deserve get anointed with awards, as if high achievement ever had anything to do with it.
The pundits continue to stack up the films, ordered by what they think “they” will do. The highest achievements in film will be rounded down to the lowest common denominator of films that still look like real movies with real actors, real dialogue, real sets, real cinematography, real music.
But really, November looks a lot like September and October except for one key party crasher: David Fincher’s pitch black satire, which breezes into the party like the mystery guest whose dress is a little too tight, shows a little too much leg and is the most welcome guest at the party if not the most respectable. The party guests drift in her direction knowing that at the end of the day she’ll emerge as the most popular but they won’t offer her a place at the table. Her clothes are wrong. Her makeup is a little garish. And what was she doing when she disappeared down the hall for those suspicious five minutes and was she WIPING HER MOUTH as she exited one of the rooms?
Gone Girl is the kind of film people will be talking about for years to come, adding to Fincher’s growing body of groundbreaking, exceptional work. He’s not only one of America’s finest directors but he’s a daring upstart working within the studio system. This time, his film is about to earn $160 million and become one of the highest grossing films of the year. If the high profile pundits are right and it isn’t among the nominated films of the year, that only further promotes the notion that it’s Telluride and Toronto or bust for Oscar movies, unless American Sniper and Unbroken do what those same pundits are betting they will: be good enough to woo voters.
The AFI Fest will be the last thing to alter the Best Picture race. So much rides on the month of November. Unbroken, amid nearly insurmountable hype, waits to be seen all the way at the tail end of November, the 30th, when presumably Angelina Jolie will be done shooting her current film with Brad Pitt and can do Q&As. Jolie is their most powerful weapon, of course, and must be here. Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper is also being touted as one of the last of the game-changers.
My own impression of how the race is going differs dramatically from that of In Contention’s Kris Tapley or Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg or Fandango’s Dave Karger. All of them are discounting the nomination of Fincher’s record breaking Gone Girl. Everything I know about the Oscars, though, tells me that what I think is the “film of the year” will not go unnoticed. To me it’s an easy call. But people will say that’s because I’m biased. I’m the Social Network girl who has interviewed Fincher and therefore I can’t possibly be objective.
Like Gone Girl, Interstellar is divisive. With the exception of a handful of movies by Frank Capra, arguably Steven Spielberg and David Lean, the best films are divisive. Less divisive is Birdman, which is hitting people in much more familiar territory than either Gone Girl or Interstellar. There are some films that seemed to be “liked” across the board and they are your likely “best” of the year, even though we can all pretty much say with a fair amount of confidence that, in this case, best mean “most agreeable overall.” You’re never going to make history or generate controversy or alight a generation by being “most agreeable over all” but you’re going to win Oscars, that much we know for sure.
With an even ten nomination slots, these films would have no problem being honored as among the best of the year. When you’re talking about five slots things get a little more tricky. In that case, five choices by Oscar voters will reward LOVE over LIKE. That probably bodes better for Interstellar and Birdman than it does Gone Girl or Foxcatcher which are just too icy to love unless you’re a cold-hearted soulless person like me.
Where box office helps Gone Girl — potentially earning $160 million with a $60 million budget, a rousing success by anyone’s definition, especially old-time Oscar watchers who remember when Hollywood rewarded those kinds of successes of non-super hero or effects driven films. Box office always matters when you’re talking that kind of money. Oscar bloggers who are paying attention will recognize that.
With Interstellar, box office could be the thing to sink it. It has to make money. LOTS of money. Oscar voters don’t really reward what people consider failures. It is expected that it will make money, even though it’s a three hour movie and will not open at number one (because Big Hero 6 will). It’s the kind of spectacle movie theaters were made for. You can’t watch this thing at home. Like Titanic, it has to be seen to be believed. If it had a simpleton plot or was as easy to understand as Titanic you might have been looking at a film that could have topped Titanic — but Interstellar is not so easy to understand and will likely confound movie goers who aren’t jazzed by the visuals.
Without considering the opinions of my colleagues, my own predictions for Best Picture right now feel fairly solid:
1. Boyhood – Richard Linklater’s 12-year saga of growing up that caps his brilliant career up to now. It is the other film, besides Birdman and Gone Girl, that everyone is talking about. It has the number one spot because it does what no other film ever has done. It is the only one of its kind and it’s a brilliantly executed, moving, unforgettable work of art.
2. The Theory of Everything – Gets the edge on The Imitation Game and Birdman because of its subject matter. That it’s about a marriage, a love story and eventually becoming about an appreciation of the brilliant Mr. Hawking only adds to its power. It is the charm of Eddie Redmayne as Hawking that carries this Little Movie That Could, entering the Oscar race with the advantage of not being thought of as the frontrunner.
3. The Imitation Game – Will give Theory a run for its money and will be one of the only films with a gay protagonist to potentially win the top prize.
4. Birdman – A film about actors that is a dressing down of the silly game played for fame and recognition. It is an ode of failure and creative struggle. Virtuoso filmmaking by Inarritu and brilliant ensemble of actors that plays like theater in the round on screen.
5. Gone Girl – Fincher’s highest grossing film about the trappings of narcissism, sucking us in amid economic collapse all around us. A dark vision of our modern world that turns out to be a funny, entertaining film – the least traditionally heavy in the lineup, but perhaps the most disturbing.
If this was a five picture race, these would be your five. But since they give more room now for the rest of them, we’ll presume we get four more choices, bringing in a total of nine nominees:
6. Whiplash – A neatly woven fable of sorts about success and criticism. It seems to be universally loved across the board.
7. Interstellar – Flawed by admired. Those who love it really really love it.
8. Mr. Turner – Still hanging in there because it seems tailor made for British voters. And it’s Mike Leigh.
9. Foxcatcher – One of the best films of the year, more well liked overall by critics than Gone Girl but perhaps too ice cold for voters.
10. The Grand Budapest Hotel – Might this finally be Wes Anderson’s moment to be recognized by an Academy that has mostly dismissed his work?
Since the AFI is the first big list that heralds the top ten films of the year, I think it’s time to predict how they might go.
Submissions had to be received by October 30, one of the earliest deadlines for awards season. It is unclear whether or not all the late-breaking films will be seen by the voting committee by the time they vote. I don’t know how it works, whether films have to be screened by October 30 or just entered and then screened later.
Here is how the awards calendar will go:
And how the AFI has gone in the past:
2013 | AFI Top Ten | Oscars |
12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave | |
American Hustle | American Hustle | |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips | |
Gravity | Gravity | |
Nebraska | Nebraska | |
Her | Her | |
The Wolf of Wall Street | The Wolf of Wall Street | |
Philomena | ||
Dallas Buyers Club | ||
Fruitvale Station | ||
Inside Llewyn Davis | ||
Saving Mr. Banks | ||
2012 | Argo | Argo |
Beasts of the Southern Wild | Beasts of the Southern Wild | |
Django Unchained | Django Unchained | |
Les Miserables | Les Miserables | |
Life of Pi | Life of Pi | |
Lincoln | Lincoln | |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook | |
Zero Dark Thirty | Zero Dark Thirty | |
Amour | ||
Moonrise Kingdom | ||
The Dark Knight Rises | ||
2011 | The Descendants | The Descendants |
The Help | The Help | |
Hugo | Hugo | |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris | |
Moneyball | Moneyball | |
Tree of Life | Tree of Life | |
War Horse | War Horse | |
(The Artist-special award) | The Artist | |
Extremely Loud | ||
Bridesmaids | ||
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | ||
J. Edgar | ||
2010 | 127 Hours | 127 Hours |
Black Swan | Black Swan | |
The Fighter | The Fighter | |
Inception | Inception | |
The Kids Are All Right | The Kids Are All Right | |
The Social Network | The Social Network | |
Toy Story 3 | Toy Story 3 | |
True Grit | True Grit | |
Winter’s Bone | Winter’s Bone | |
(The King’s Speech special award) | The King’s Speech | |
The Town | ||
2009 | A Serious Man | A Serious Man |
The Hurt locker | The Hurt locker | |
Precious | Precious | |
Up | Up | |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air | |
Avatar | ||
An Education | ||
Inglourious Basterds | ||
The Blind Side | ||
District 9 | ||
A Single Man | ||
Coraline | ||
The Hangover | ||
The Messenger | ||
Sugar |
But I figure we’re talking about:
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Birdman
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Wild
I added in the last two titles though I expect those two could be replaced by titles we haven’t seen yet. Had they been seen already American Sniper, A Most Violent Year, Unbroken, Big Eyes and Selma would all seem AFI friendly titles but there is just no way of knowing. There have been rumblings about test screenings but those are meaningless. Holding back screening a film by this point is a curious strategy. I understand that some would like to bypass all Oscar blogging and chatter and just take their movies straight to voters. That can sometimes work if the film is not critic heavy (The Blind Side) but it can also backfire if the film needs advocacy. The main reason to get your movie out there early is to get in line for the National Board of Review and the Golden Globes.
These films are hoping, it must be assumed, to bypass critics and get those nominations anyway. When that happens, if the movie is bad or panned by critics, it makes the awards body that nominated the film look silly. If it turns out to be a great movie they get all the credit for being among the first to notice the film.
Interesting move by Team Boyhood, the Ethan Hawke card…
http://m.hollywoodreporter.com/entry/view/id/826217
love this quote; fits me to a tee! “unless you’re a cold-hearted soulless person like me.”
I wish the Oscars were later in the season, the way they used to be. Then Oscar voters aren’t trying to watch them over the holidays with their family.
They’d have a couple of months to think about them, and general audiences would actually have seen the movies, creating more interest.
I think maybe more serious and venturesome movies might stay the course, rather than picking the buzziest movie.
“Like Mark Harris is always saying, Oscar voters haven’t even considered voting yet. They’re just wandering around town living their lives, making plans to fly out of town for the holidays, maybe bring a pile of screeners with them. The screener pile usually settles things as those who write about the Oscars have helped get people to maybe be interested in watching the films they at least know they’re supposed to watch.”
This is why I think it’s so important for Oscar predictions sites to be open-minded and to do a bit of lobbying. Oscar predictions are a tricky game because they can become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy. All year, folks predict the same 20 films as films that the Academy will like, rejecting anything that’s too avant-garde. Then, lo and behold, Oscar voters start hearing that those same 20 films are awards contenders and so they watch those screeners first (and sometimes, few others).
What we need are pundits who’ll take a chance. Nobody cares in November whether you’re 10/10 on your Best Picture picks. So live a little– suggest that maybe the Academy will indeed go for that out-there movie. Keep it in the conversation. Then, maybe just maybe, you’ll be surprised on Oscar nominations day.
Now back to people arguing which ten of the fifteen main contenders they think will get in… woof.
I’ve made this point before but: were I a director with any sort of influence on my distribution, I’d screen my film as late as possible, preferably within a week of its opening. The praise > backlash > backlash to the backlash that tends to accompany every ambitious release poisons critical wells and even astute critics often write reactions to other critics rather than reactions to the films themselves. And festivals involve tired, jet-lagged critics in between parties and filing deadlines trying to formulate a response to a complex film amidst 15-20 others taken in within a week. I don’t understand why filmmakers and producers whose films have locked distribution would submit their work to such adverse circumstances. Even if a festival “makes” a movie, such as ARGO or THE ARTIST, the time lapse between premiere & release date turns it into an Oscar punching bag. Before the Internet, when reactions could only spread so quickly, it made sense. But today, fuck it. Pull a MILLION DOLLAR BABY, open at the 11th hour, and walk away whistling.
Er, I think the Gotham Awards here in NYC are handed out on Dec.1. I will be there. The day the NYFCC announce. And it all starts in earnest.
I am almost certain that Birdman is in second place. Foxcatcher might be this year’s Inside Llewyn Davis and one of the late breakers will become a contender, It’s a trend at this point.
But Ryan if you can assume that Selma has what it takes to get nominated for BP then you can assume that it probably has the costumes and production design to score a nomination as well. The problem with a lot of pundits is they don’t look at an Oscar year as a full picture–instead they evaluate a film’s chances category by category, but statistically that isn’t how the Oscars work. Total nomination count MATTERS.
For instance, I want very badly to include A Most Violent Year, Whiplash, Inherent Vice and Gone Girl on my predictions for BP, but to do so I have to evaluate where they can play in other categories. AMVY has a very tough road to get nominations in other fields, as does Inherent Vice. They just aren’t going to squeak by with just a BP nom. Whiplash at least has a Supporting Actor bid in its favor, and some Sound ones seem safe, too. Gone Girl is on the fence in a number of a categories and it really just depends on if it makes it in. Looking back, I think a lack of strong candidacy in other fields is what kept people from thinking of writing down Inside Llewyn Davis on their BP ballot.
A Most Violent Year
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
Wild cards:
Exodus
Ida
The Hobbit
Under the Skin
re: “I think these quotes about reactions to the films are interesting but don’t mean all that much.”
Except the discussion began with me arguing that Nolan is in a better place amongt his peers, namely the DG, who has nominated him multiple times and now there are a number of well-regarded and Oscar-winning directors praising SPECIFICALLY HIS WORK AS A DIRECTOR on the film. My interpretation of Nolan’s statement that Boyhood is one of his favorite films of all time is that, while it insinuates that Linklater does great directorial work on it he mostly loves the film as a whole. The examples of what other directors are saying about Interstellar seem to correlate more directly to Nolan’s work as a director. Furthermore, the concept of breaking embargo to praise a film, from my perspective, shows extreme support of a film. It’s much easier to praise a film while everyone else does it. Disagree if you want. We’ll see how it plays out.
You left out the part where Nolan said Boyhood was one of his favorite movies of all time.
I don’t see PTA/Tarantino etc coming right out and saying Interstellar is one of their favorite movies of all time. In fact, the Tarantino quote only says Interstellar has a big vision, which I’m sure it does. It doesn’t say Tarantino loved the film, really. (Not that I care that much what Tarantino thinks anyway.) And maybe I’m dense, but I don’t see the difference between Nolan saying Boyhood is “an extraordinary film” and PTA saying Interstellar is “a beautiful film” or Wright saying it’s “incredible.” Nolan’s view of Boyhood doesn’t count because he said it after the movie had been acclaimed and PTA/Tarantino etc are saying their quotes before all the reviews came out? Huh?
But I don’t want to get into a pissing contest with you. I think these quotes about reactions to the films are interesting but don’t mean all that much. We’ll get a true sense of how the industry feels when we see the nomination list.
On the Selma front: it’s curious how GoldDerby deemed “experts” Wloszczyna, Karger, Pond and Atchity include Selma in their list of BP nominees, but not in any other category. How incredibly implausible is it that a BP nominee has a total of 1 nominations. More likely and not unheard of (Incredibly Ridiculous and Extremely Surprising), but still an unfortunate prediction, there are a number of others that have it getting 2 total nominations, BP being one of them. Surely if Selma is nominated it’ll also contend in Costumes and Production Design at the very least.
“On the Selma front: it’s curious …”
Nobody has seen Selma. Nobody has seen more than isolated scenes. On Oct 27th Ava DuVernay said that she was still working on the final scoring, final edit, and final FX work on Selma.
From what people have seen, enough of those people seem to think to looks like Best Picture caliber. But they can’t predict it for specifics yet because nobody but Ava Duvernay and her editor have seen the finished film.
Robert, I’m not sure how you don’t see the difference between:
Nolan on Boyhood: “an extraordinary film” (commentary given after the film has been universally praised and out in theaters for months)
and
Tarantino on Interstellar: “It’s been a while since somebody has come out with such a big vision to things.”
PTA on Interstellar: “He’s made a beautiful film… But don’t fuck around, go see it in IMAX, Brave the line. Do it, bite the bullet.”
Wright on Interstellar: “Am I allowed to say that ‘Interstellar’ is incredible yet?”
Bird on Interstellar: “Dazzled by the ambition & intelligence of Chris Nolan’s INTERSTELLAR.”
(all of which were expressed either before embargo was lifted or at the very least before any public screenings had been held)
Robert, I’m not sure how you don’t see the difference between:
I don’t see the difference either. I see directors who feel moved and impressed by one another’s work, enough to speak publicly about how they feel in the most effusive terms. That’s not common. It’s special and significant.
It matters not at all to me that Nolan didn’t go on Twitter in March to say “FIRST! Boyhood rocks, y’all! You heard it here first!”
Directors are not bound by stupid embargo requests. Nobody is. Critics politely abide by embargo requests so that they stay on good terms with the people who invite them to advance screenings. Directors have no such concerns.
“ooh, brave directors defying the embargo!” no, no, not brave, just directors being directors being normal humans.
Linklater’s potential Oscar(s) will in my opinion serve as a weirdly retroactive endorsement of early John Sayles. Lot of similarities between them.
@ Benutty
I suppose I’m not surprised. You ask for any examples of directors being openly vocal about Linklater’s work. I give you one very critical one, Nolan himself, who considers Boyhood “an extraordinary film” and one of his favorite movies of all time…but somehow, that doesn’t count as endorsement of Boyhood or Linklater? Meanwhile, any adjective out of any director’s mouth that is even remotely positive about Interstellar is bandied about as a fawning endorsement of Nolan and a sure indication of the industry’s unbridled embrace of him.
I guess we’ll have to wait and see how it all unfolds…
K. Bowen, I’ve heard nothing on Unbroken. Selma, however, I heard a rumbling that it is a bit troublesome. What level of troublesome I am not sure, could be minimal. This was before the whole “30 minute footage preview”. We shall see.
I’m familiar with that quote, too, Robert, and I really liked it when I read it, but as an endorsement of Linklater’s work as a director on the film it doesn’t quite hold up. In fact, it pits Interstellar squarely against Boyhood in the sense that Nolan addresses a thematic link between the two (which he uses to talk about his own film, not Boyhood). I’m not saying Nolan is being manipulative in saying that, but rather that it might become the debate we’re having further down the road when Boyhood and Interstellar are our two most likely winners of Picture and/or Director.
Has anyone seen anything good said about Unbroken or Selma. The little message board scuttlebutt that I’ve seen is negative, but there hasn’t been much either way.
“The fact that so many directors are coming out so publicly in support of Interstellar is a good sign he’s going to take the DGA and the Oscar will follow. Any links to directors being so vocally supportive of Linklater’s work?”
Well, I do have one example: does Christopher Nolan’s opinion count? He considers Boyhood one of his favorite movies OF ALL TIME! See below:
“In his own words, Christopher Nolan himself recently described how he sees INTERSTELLAR as very much inline with one of his favorite films of all time, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood: “For me, the film is really about being a father. The sense of your life passing you by and your kids growing up before your eyes. Very much what I felt watching Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, an extraordinary film, which is weirdly doing the same thing in a completely different way. We are all engaged in the biggest mystery of all, which is just living through time.”
“The fact that so many directors are coming out so publicly in support of Interstellar is a good sign he’s going to take the DGA…”
Nope. A nomination wouldn’t surprise me.* But Nolan is not going to win the DGA this year.
*(a lack of nomination wouldn’t surprise me either)
re: “Linklater wins no matter what BP is”
except that Nolan gets nominated by the Directors guild fairly often, but has never won. The fact that so many directors are coming out so publicly in support of Interstellar is a good sign he’s going to take the DGA and the Oscar will follow. Any links to directors being so vocally supportive of Linklater’s work?
re: “Interstellar getting raves from NY/LA times and from the more respected critics. Oddly enough it’s the fanboys that is most mixed on it.”
This is true to my experience after the screening last night. Fanboys on the subway home were all in agreement that, as an example, Inception was better. To them, Interstellar is too emotionally-driven and that bars them from connecting to it, which is fair given the expectations for intricate and mechanized plotting that Nolan has set up for his fanbase. Non-Nolan-obsessed moviegoers who are capable of looking beyond the science of the film (I argue this is going to be MOST viewers) will have great admiration and love for it. It’s SILLY to still be denying the overwhelming presence it’s going to have on Oscar night.
re: “You can’t say “most likely in” for films that haven’t been seen. It just wastes everyone’s time. I can’t believe this is now accepted practice.”
While this is great practice for developing a list of what your favorite films for the year are, it’s not a very practical one when evaluating and predicting the awards season. It’s accepted practice in more than just the Oscars, Sasha. Football pundits predict winners of the season before pre-season even starts, and all of that is based off of the stats of the past and the prospects of the players on the team. Odds at the racetrack or in Vegas are odds because they are based on yet-to-be-determined events. You can’t ask someone to place bets on the outcome of an event without utilizing all of the materials at their disposal–in the Oscar race this includes placing bets on unseen films.
How the bet-placing changes the race can be lamented, I agree, but to ask that people stop taking unseen films into account is ridiculous. Anne Thompson is taking a big risk judging the season as she does it, but as far as I’m concerned she’s lost all credibility as a pundit.
re: ” It’s the kind of spectacle movie theaters were made for. You can’t watch this thing at home. Like Titanic, it has to be seen to be believed.”
Gravity and Titanic both scored huge with the Academy and were similarly “made to be seen in the theater not at home.” I don’t buy this as a reason why Interstellar won’t succeed with voters.
Oops, *traps not *tracks.
Yeah I will happily play along and attempt to predict the nominees, even though I have not seen most of them, but I don’t take it as gospel. And I can’t take it seriously right now. I dropped Interstellar into to my Best Picture list on Gold Derby purely based on build up , credibility of cast and crew, and the road the Oscars go down. I know nothing more, and don’t claim to. And this up and down motion of movies nobody has seen yet – like Bradley Cooper is catching Timothy Spall. Come on! It is a race, yes, but some dogs have not even come out the tracks yet.
“Gone Girl is the kind of film people will be talking about for years to come” – Are you serious? While I really loved Gone Girl and gave it 9/10, its hardly the type of movie people will talk for years to come. It was a good, entertaining movie but next year people will forget about it. The only thing this film will be famous down the years is because of Pike’s performance and the character as one of the best villians ever seen. The film itself? Dont think so. I dont think its close to Fincher’s best work such as Seven, Fight Club and Zodiac.
Unbroken feels, to me, like it will be a slightly juiced-up War Horse-like contender. Do well at the Globes. Do decent box office. Do well with Guilds. Get quite a few noms. But it may not threaten anywhere, really, for wins. It could still get decent reviews and not feel like a contender, just a solid nom-worthy behemoth. Or … Its amazing and will be showered with accolades. But I dont see it being some colossal miss that voting bodies will completely shut-out.
Gosh, American Snipers’ trailer is so good. It played well on a big screen for an audience I was with. Really hope it doesnt disappoint, but … Dunno. Some reports of it being a big player, other reports of it being underwhelming Eastwood fare. Hoping for the best, but. Remember the American Hustle trailer? SO much better than the movie (which still entertains on some level).
Boy, I think Imitation Game is a WAY better movie than Theory of Everything. Theory just being about Hawking’s marriage makes it feel a lot LESS important- i mean, most Americans don’t even know who Alan Turing was or what he did, so his story is like a huge revelation.
Joseph and Sasha, I would firmly place Gone Girl in the drama category because of its thriller roots. True it is a black comedy, but way deep down. It’s dramatic above and below the surface. There was much more on the line for the characters in Gone Girl than Nebraska, which was a dramedy but it’s comedy was more above the surface. Orton’s music, how playful everything between the actors get (especially Squibb), it was much more comedic than Gone Girl. Possibly murdered wife, media treating Affleck like a villain, Ross and Reznor with their oh so comedic music, bazinga 😉 , I don’t think it’d be smart to place it in comedy.
Gone Girl has made more internationally than here. a big deal IMO. It’s looking stronger now than a few weeks ago. The other contenders are falling back as they are released.
Theory of Everything is Focus and The Imitation Game is Weinstein. These things matter.
Oh, okay. I assume “by a single author” meant that only one person had written it. Never mind.
Oh, The Hurt Locker also says hi.
Oh, The Hurt Locker also says hi.
By the SAME person. To quote Quint, “Don’t you tell me my business again.”
“no film has ever won Original Screenplay (by a single author), Director and Picture.”
The King’s Speech says hi.
“no film has ever won Original Screenplay (by a single author), Director and Picture.”
The King’s Speech says hi.
By the SAME person. To quote Quint, “Don’t you tell me my business again.”
Actually on second thought seeing as how all the pundits seem to have The Theory of Everything high on there prediction lists. And given the fact it has an 86% on RT and that its a crowd pleasing “oscar movie” I think its probably a stronger contendor than im giving it credit for.
Just going on my feelings im going with
Unbroken
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
Interstellar
Gone Girl/Foxcatcher (I think only one of these two will make it in)
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
I cant beleive Sasha actually has The Theory of Everything at number 2. In my opinion it will be lucky to just get nominated.
Sasha,
If you were the HFPA, would you place Gone Girl in Golden Globe drama or comedy?
I know it’ll be put into drama but for me it doesn’t work as a whole if you don’t view it as a comedy (though it starts as a thriller). HA
Sasha,
If you were the HFPA, would you place Gone Girl in Golden Globe drama or comedy?
I know it’ll be put into drama but for me it doesn’t work as a whole if you don’t view it as a comedy (though it starts as a thriller). HA
Hm. That’s interesting. Nebraska was put in as a comedy, right? That would be SO funny. I don’t know.
The fanboys haven’t even SEEN it yet. Granted, there isn’t the gunplay of Inception or the Batman movies, but they’re firmly in Nolan’s corner. He can really do no wrong with them.
I love Interstellar. I love Boyhood. The big question mark for me is Unbroken. The Imitation Game seems to me too much of a niche product to really grab the prize.
Interstellar getting raves from NY/LA times and from the more respected critics. Oddly enough it’s the fanboys that is most mixed on it. In short, Interstellar got the reviews to get it nominated and then some.
Linklater wins no matter what BP is
There seems to be three films with the momentum behind them: Gone Girl, The Imitation Game and Interstellar. If I were a gambler, my money would be on one of these three for Best Film. The last of these has prompted some superlative reviews in both the US and UK, and – like Gravity last year – will be too big and too much of a game changer to be ignored. I for one would love to see – and hope – Nolan get a Best Director nod (and if he were to win, it would be well-deserved).
The Imitation Game too seems to be on a roll – Peoples Choice award at Toronto (like a VIP ticket to a Best Picture nomination); Opening night film at the London Film Festival,; a true story of a flawed genius and headlined by the Brit of the moment Benedict Cumberbatch (who would have thought he’d be an Emmy winner last time this year).
Gone Girl is a film people talk about – not just admire or like.
Of the unseen films so far, only American Sniper would appear to have a chance of gate crashing the Best Picture award – directed by a much loved Hollywood veteran and Academy favourite and it’s about the currently topical subject of Iraq. The trailer looks impressive. And it’s that thing the Academy loves – a true story. It could be this year The Hurt Locker or Zero Dark Thirty.
Linklater did have the opening monologue in Slacker, so does that make him count as an Actor turned Director?
Pete, I think Linklater is the BD favourite regardless of how Best Picture plays out. The story of Boyhood’s creation and all the years that went into such a creative project are just too much to ignore for AMPAS voters, especially in this new era of Best Director and Best Picture no longer going hand-in-hand.
Linklater is absolutely the favourite right now, and he has an edge over the latebreakers even if one of those films takes the lead in the BP race.
* Eastwood, a legend but two Oscars already
* Jolie/Marsh/Tyldum/DuVernay/Chandor, all are sort of in the same boat as ‘not quite yet,’ though obviously Jolie carries a huge profile and even Chandor (a past screenplay nominee) has some Academy cred.
* Leigh/Miller can’t be discounted since the Academy also loves them, though I don’t see either overtaking Linklater
* Burton is a no-go, ‘Big Eyes’ already seems to have written off
* Marshall has a shot if Into The Woods lives up to expectations, though once again, Marshall might find himself directing a BP and losing out on Best Director. He’s a reverse Ang Lee.
Going completely sight unseen, I’d actually rank Jolie as the best chance of taking Best Director from this group simply because the Academy love to reward actors becoming directors (Beatty, Redford, Costner, Gibson, etc.)
It’d be so sweet to see EXODUS suprising everyone. I think it has never been mentioned here in a prediction post.
ScottD,
Good observation. The fact that the Academy gave her one of the honorary Oscars the same year her husband’s film was up for BP was a huge tipoff that 12 Years was a stone cold lock.
Sasha,
Do you think that a BP/BD split is in the offing again, with Linklater taking Director even if a late-breaker steals the BP thunder? As much as I would adore Linklater holding three Oscars at the end of the night, I still think Boyhood has potentially too narrow a path to actually pull it off if one of the latecomers is really really good.
Do you think that a BP/BD split is in the offing again, with Linklater taking Director even if a late-breaker steals the BP thunder? As much as I would adore Linklater holding three Oscars at the end of the night, I still think Boyhood has potentially too narrow a path to actually pull it off if one of the latecomers is really really good.
That’s a really good point. I wonder how many times that has happened. I think I did the research once and it’s really rare for an original screenplay, director and picture to win in the same night. The Apartment (Billy Wilder) is one. Annie Hall (Woody Allen) is another. Crash won screenplay and Picture but not director.
Fun fact: no film has ever won Original Screenplay (by a single author), Director and Picture.
Another way to say it: Nobody has ever won the Oscar trifecta — Best Director, Best Producer (Best Picture), and Best Screenplay (written solo).
Yet another way to say it: Nobody has won 3 Oscar in 3 categories for the same film as hyphenate producer-director-writer (sole author).
Sasha, on twitter you said it this way:
That last wording is the best and clearest way to say it. Your original thought on twitter said precisely what you meant!
I think the confusion tonight might stem from phrasing the fact with “the film” winning all three categories — when in fact it’s “the person,” yes?
“Flawed?”
Can we examine this strange assumption that Gone Girl is divisive? Or that it’s more difficult to get behind than something like Birdman? Am I missing something? Gone Girl is based on a super popular book and is rocking good reviews across the board (88% on RT, 79 on Metacritic) and making hundreds of millions of dollars, which will continue well into the future. Birdman, on the other hand, is this really dark, conceptually weird movie that’s made all of $5mil so far (with a budget of $18mil, mind) with reviews that may be better than Gone Girl’s, but not by /that/ much. Neither of these films is divisive at all, by my estimation, but the one with the greater broad support is clearly Gone Girl, I would say.
Though, at the same time, I’m equally baffled by this idea that a film like Birdman is just obviously a major Oscar player. Like if it weren’t for the fact that everyone I read is telling me it’ll make a big splash, I’d never assume a film like this could even squeeze into the BP lineup. Birdman isn’t The King’s Speech or Argo – it’s not even 12 Years a Slave. This is like people saying Her or The Tree of Life could win. Is it just because Birdman draws really easy comparisons to Black Swan?
Sasha,
This isn’t meant to come off as snarky, but can you clarify your meaning by “flawed but admired” for Interstellar? I ask because in a lengthy past piece of yours you spoke of the need to erase the word “flawed” from critical discourse of the arts.
This isn’t meant to come off as snarky, but can you clarify your meaning by “flawed but admired” for Interstellar? I ask because in a lengthy past piece of yours you spoke of the need to erase the word “flawed” from critical discourse of the arts.
True, I hate that word greatly. I think it has no place in film criticism. But I feel like I’ve lost that battle and it’s a shortcut to a way to describe the general perception of Interstellar. I would never used the word in my own review of the film, though it would literally fit in this case because the sound mix on the film is supposed to not work so well. That is usually how a flaw would be used. But perhaps it’s better to say “mixed” reception. Although what it has going for it is that people who love it REALLY love it and that kind of polarity helps with Oscar voting.
Other than the Globes, are there any straight up star-fuckers that will want to nominate Angelina Jolie just to assure her attendance?
I think the Best Picture line up will look like this:
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
The Theory of Everything
And that’s it for now. Or at least that’s all I’m comfortable predicting for now. I don’t think they will nominate Foxcatcher and maybe one of the late entries will make it.
I’m tired of hexing my favorite films of the year so I won’t let you kow my preferences until February 23rd 2015!
Hooray, another article refusing to accept the existence of Into the Woods. It’s almost getting to the point where Sasha seems biased against it.
And it’s a shame, you’d think Sasha would very much enjoy Sondheim if she gave him a chance. Sondheim is forever consumed with character and the smallest details of his music. The intricacy and delicacy of his work is non-paralleled. He is not driven by pleasing the masses, but creating works, often quite dark, that reflect on all of us. He’s right up Sasha’s alley. It’s a shame Sasha is afraid to go up that alley.
But this might be good news. Maybe Sasha will come out of that Into the Woods screening with a whole new world open to her, a world she never got the opportunity to truly experience in the past.
Here is the state of what’s been seen so far, and what is left.
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle – January 16, 2014 (Sundance FF)
Boyhood – Richard Linklater – January 19, 2014 (Sundance FF)
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson – March 7, 2014
Chef – Jon Favreau – May 9, 2014
Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh – May 15, 2014 (Cannes FF)
The Homesman – Tommy Lee Jones – May 18, 2014 (Cannes FF)
Foxcatcher – Bennett Miller – May 19, 2014 (Cannes FF)
Mommy – Xavier Dolan – May 22, 2014 (Cannes FF)
The Imitation Game – Morten Tyldum – August 29, 2014 (Telluride FF)
Wild – Jean-Marc Vallée – August 29, 2014 (Telluride FF)
Birdman – Alejandro González Iñárritu – August 30, 2014 (Telluride FF)
Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy – September 5, 2014 (Toronto IFF)
The Theory of Everything – James Marsh – September 7, 2014 (Toronto IFF)
Gone Girl – David Fincher – September 26, 2014 (New York FF)
Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson – October 4, 2014 (New York FF)
Fury – David Ayer – October 17, 2014
Interstellar – Christopher Nolan – October 26, 2014 (Premiere)
—
A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor – November 6, 2014 (AFI Fest)
Exodus: Gods and Kings – Ridley Scott – December 12, 2014
American Sniper – Clint Eastwood – December 25, 2014
Big Eyes – Tim Burton – December 25, 2014
Into the Woods – Rob Marshall – December 25, 2014
Selma – Ava DuVernay – December 25, 2014
Unbroken – Angelina Jolie – December 25, 2014
Sasha, you’re right. But it’s hard to change how I’ve been looking at the Oscar race for the past 14 years. This year though you’ve really started changing the way I look at it, practicing only predicting those that have been seen. I sometimes have an impatient side, that breaks through.
I think right now, Gone Girl is for sure in. I had broken it down though to what I think ultimately the way of thinking will be. Gone Girl would still be one of the 9, with Foxcatcher getting shut out.
Also Gone Girl has a better shot than Interstellar — I think.
You can’t say “most likely in” for films that haven’t been seen. It just wastes everyone’s time. I can’t believe this is now accepted practice.
Last night I was re-evaluating how I think the Best Picture race could end up, based on my feelings now.
In:
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Alejandro González Iñárritu
Boyhood – Richard Linklater
The Imitation Game – Morten Tyldum
Interstellar – Christopher Nolan
Unbroken – Angelina Jolie
Most Likely In:
American Sniper – Clint Eastwood
Foxcatcher – Bennett Miller
Gone Girl – David Fincher
The Theory of Everything – James Marsh
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle
Could Steal a Nomination:
Exodus: Gods and Kings – Ridley Scott
Fury – David Ayer
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson
Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson
Into the Woods – Rob Marshall
A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor
Selma – Ava DuVernay
Wild – Jean-Marc Vallée
I think Unbroken has a spot saved for it. I think American Sniper probably will get in. It’s Into the Woods and Selma I’m less sure about. I know Rufus and Bryce predict good things for it, but I just don’t share their positive feelings. The big wildcard is A Most Violent Year. But we’ll know this week how it’ll play.