Gone Girl’s box office has officially entered phenom status with its take domestically, $145 million and globally, $300 million. Phil Contrino at Box-office.com said it would end up with around $160 domestically but I think it will surge past that.
Big Hero 6, as predicted by Boxoffice.com and Boxofficemojo.com, overtook Interstellar – it was in more theaters and it’s three hours long. But Interstellar ties Gravity’s international opening with $80 million and should surge with global box office as well as domestic. Big Hero 6 is off to a great start as well. Nightcrawler appears to be generating good word of mouth for a tidy box office take. But to me the real surprise, and it will come as no surprise to you, is Gone Girl. She’s got legs. She knows how to use them…
Rosamund Pike will be nominated for sure.She is the frontrunner in my opinion.You guys can put her performance down how ever you want,but something tells me she is the one to beat.I remember last year when people where predicting Jennifer Lawrence for a second oscar over Lupita ,well we all know how that one turned out.The academy will decide this one.
M1, I’d say making 170 million off a 14 million dollar budget is the exact opposite of a failure, not to mention the Oscars.
Brokeback Mountain was an egregious failure? It grossed more than $170 million at the worldwide box office, received tremendous critical acclaim (87 on Metacritic), and won three Oscars. If that’s an egregious failure then I would love to have more egregious failures on my resume.
And considering that Lost in Translation, The Pianist, Milk, and the aforementioned Brokeback all nearly won Best Picture, I can’t agree with the idea that Focus doesn’t champion their films. They’ve done pretty well with what they’ve had.
no problems steven, I should have been more clear that I was only skimming since the thread was so long, maybe I would have gotten the correct context then.
But, yeah, you’re right. No one is talking about Annie. It’s probably going to be a hard knock box office for the film.
Rosamund Pike is the most deserving of an oscar at this time.I love Julianne Moore,but i wont say she will win the oscar as i havent seen her movie.Have you guys on this thread actually watched Gone Girl or did you go in looking for the movies flaws? Rosamund Pike was amazing beyond words..The second act of the movie felt like i was watching a different character from a different movie.It was that mind blowing..Not since Charlize theron has there been a female performance like this.Forget politics and see her performance for what is ..If Jennifer Lawrence can win an oscar for her mediocre role in for Silver linnings playbook and we are still not considering Rosamund Pike as a strong contender at this piont then the oscars is not what i thought it was about..
“It’s a relief to hear that you realize your dislike of Gone Girl is entirely subjective.”
it’s a question of liking or disliking, nothing more nothing less, the truth is people are rooting for a flick they want desperately to see winning big because it would reinforce their belief in their own taste, once it happens the other way it’s because voter are morons …period.
Like you said “There simply are not more than 20 million smart culturally-engaged grown-ups in America. Never have been, never will be. That’s a fact. Ask any Democrat.” ……too bad, voters are not members of this so called upper class !
You see, it’s quite a thing to say that Oscars matter and proclame the day after that The Oscars don’t mean a thing because it’s a fraud.
Don’t even get me started on The Blind Side…every little good thing that movie may have had going for it was undercut with pauses of “look how bad his life is…what can we do to help…” It was so obvious. I think that movie got put up on a pedestal on this site because a woman headlined a movie that grossed so much damn money, though please correct me if I’m wrong. I always felt Bullock did a fine job with what she had, maybe a Golden Globe nomination AT BEST. But once she won the Globe I thought, “oh no…that’s the race everyone.”
Rufus, sorry I didn’t mean “Why aren’t people talking about Annie’s chances?” I meant, “I haven’t heard anybody talk about the movie Annie, in any capacity, whatsoever.”
Julian, I seem to remember Brand saying that Cooper came by happenstance and they didn’t think of him until he walked in the door.
The Blind Side was Warner, btw. Arguably other movies should have been nominated, but are studios like Warner and Weinstein to be castigated because they champion their films? I would argue that the blame falls on studios that fail to champion their films for recognition, notoriously Focus Films, whose most egregious failure was BBM. There are many films Focus released that would have had successful campaigns had they been handled by a more awards-supporting studio.
I apologize to anyone on this thread, any moderator of this site and to Ryan if my arguments made here yesterday came off as insulting because that was never my intention. I took a comment that Ryan made about the failures of The Academy to go OT about my views of what I call “snub culture” and it got out of hand. I see in many comments made after my own that I may have given people the impression that I’m here to argue and not to have thoughtful discussion about the thing we all come to this site to discuss–awards season. In case it’s been missed, I do value everyone’s opinions and I find worth in heated, hot-tempered debates, but sometimes forget that not everyone shares that sentiment.
Onward 🙂
Annie will never get a nomination. It is too light, too fluffy. It’s a great “family” film and we know how often they get nominated. Wasn’t “Babe” the last non-animated family film to get noticed and that was truly original and fun. Annie is a remake and won’t suprise anyone as it will now be the third filmed version.
Oh, and if anyone claims Into the Woods is a “family” film they are seriously wrong. Kids may enjoy it, but they will miss so many of the reasons it’s a great musical. I read that Into the Woods, Jr. is one of the most licensed musicals out there for schools to perform. That’s a dumbed-down version of the show and it completely cuts the second act. I wonder how many parents are going to get dragged by their kids to see it and be completely shocked by the death and carnage of the latter half.
Oh, and James Corden will be so wonderful he not only will get a Best Actor nomination, but will likely get a Best Actress nomination as well. No one’s ever gotten that combo (although Jaye Davidson came closest).
NIXXX92,
I feel like Moore is clearly the winner, but we’ll see what the hype machine whips up over the next couple months.
Ryan,
Completely agree. Pike is a top 5 performer easily this year. More like top 2 or 3 even.
Christophe: and why didn’t Michael Caine and his NASA brotherhood just go visit at Coop’s farm? Seems easier to take the car and drive for a couple of hours and have a good chat about it than wait for him in some obscure cave in the middle of nowhere… It seems puzzling to me that Caine didn’t care to go get Coop, but he cared to go deliver the car to Murph… Also: no training before going on a mission like that? Oh well, maybe that’s why they fuck up at the water planet and why that guy has to tell Coop what a wormhole is. Without training you WOULD fuck up in space, wouldn’t you?
Bryce: See, that’s what’s cool, right. No name calling, no insults. If you can’t allow people to have a bit of fun with what everyone’s here passionate about – the movies – then what’s the point of it all? I love Philip Roth, but what I find most interesting about reading about him is critical assessments because they make me think and reflect and sharpen my own thoughts about why I think he’s brilliant. So when people have a good laugh about the absurdities of GG and Interstellar, the good response of the fan who likes these movies is to either shrug it off or, better, engage with it for what it is. Let’s not turn in to some solemn custodians of the art form. It’s not a dying art form after all, so what’s there to be protective about?
Well, Warner got Gravity seven last year and one for Her. Their awards record since Harvey came back is arguably better than his….. and with fewer contenders. When they do have a contender they campaign for it.
I think GG’s looking better than it did just two or three weeks ago… as the other possible contenders drop back. Bet it outperforms its MC scores on the top tens;
Antoinette, I also forget that Annie even exists. Nobody anywhere really talks about it at all.
I wonder. If Exodus winds up being better than expected and/or the final Hobbit is as good as it can be … If they (or 1 of them) will steal Interstellars thunder and take their noms/potential wins. Heck, I know it sounds laughable, but if The Hobbit gets very good reviews, I could see it sliding into a BP nom.
OMG you TARS haters need to step off! lol I love him so much.
*********************************INTERSTELLAR SPOILERS***************************
It seemed to me that this blight was swift. Not that it happened overnight but they seemed to be caught with their pants down. So they have to use what they’ve got. I’m fairly certain that Cooper alluded to TARS being some kind of older model of military robot when he first saw him. The way I saw it, they had to use their precious resources wisely. So if they could re-purpose robots, then why not? I even thought they were probably using ethanol in their trucks and that their beer was probably moonshine. Another clue to them having to use whatever they had for me was that the baseball team was wearing Yankee uniforms, not their own teams’ insignia. So I guessed that maybe they got them from a sporting goods store that closed down. It seemed like everyone was literally dirt poor. If they had more time and the ability to keep up with technology wouldn’t they have maybe huge hydroponic gardens in warehouses everywhere? I mean NASA was hidden. They were doing that by themselves. It was a really hard scrabble existence beyond having to eat only corn.
About GONE GIRL, I think Pike will most likely be nominated but I haven’t seen really anyone else yet. If GONE GIRL, has a problem it’ll be that scene. You know the one I mean. It was super graphic and jarring. I had no problem with it but older folks might.
Oh and I’d like to put down money on ANNIE. As far as I know no one is saying anything but my vibes are telling me so. And wishful thinking has me hoping for a very populist Academy Awards. If movies like that and EXODUS and GONE GIRL and INTERSTELLAR, I think it would be great for the Oscars themselves. It’s November 10th and normal people haven’t even heard of most of the movies you guys are talking about. That seems worse than usual.
“There’s big Oscar love for Linklater for the Director’s prize, and in another Picture-Director split….Best Picture to The Imitation Game, Miramax wins”
If the Imitation Game wins best picture I think I’ll eat a rock.
And what about Brand? God knows I love Anne Hathaway, but based on what I read on this very site beforehand I was expecting her to be a super-serious icy bitch yet she was way too sympathic and giggly… first handshake really? come on!
Steven,
Don’t be sorry dude! Your comment was absolutely justified. I was trying to be bitchy to begin with because I was so proud of myself when it occured to me I would rather see this film as a Monty Python or Mel Brooks parody. It’s just the impression that so many things in this film do not sound natural at all, like the things people would say in real life in that sort of situation.
Julian,
It was a general impression. Like I said to Steven above, the dialogues in particular sounded awkward. I might have a second viewing in the near future so I’ll be sure to take notes, but indeed Tars was so funny, did it make any sense to have such a big and weird-looking machine on board when robotics and computer research is geared toward making smaller, sleeker and more practical machines? Plus if they were really worried about escaping the Earth’s gravity they’d want to cut extra weight. And why even send humans there when you can just send robots first to explore, sample and tell you if the planet is worth it? But then there would be no movie of course. Also, I couldn’t buy the whole NASA going underground and on-the-cheap thing yet they can send a dozen manned missions beyond Saturn, which would probably cost the GDP of the entire world. And why choose Coop of all people, when you haven’t even talked to him for years?
How do you guys do it? So many comments on these passionate subjects by my pals and no insults or name-calling. I would have flipped out by now.
The essential problem of Interstellar is it’s obsession with solving problems. Nolan wants resolution, not just in the end, he wants to spoon feed us with it along the way as well (most egregious example: when the crew member explains Coop, who has been goddamn chosen for this mission and already spent years in space (!), what a wormhole is, that’s the end of poetry, you know…). Kubrick gives us images to consider and interpret. Nolan is so simple-minded (or blockbuster-oriented) that he thinks he can provide a thrilling, brilliant answer.
My predicfor Actress right now would be:
Moore
Witherspoon
Pike
Jones (but not set in stone)
Adams (because Harvey and voters branch loves her)
——-
Swank (could get in, shes working it hard)
Blunt (I have a feeling Into the Woods will be big and thatwill help her)
——–
Then a plethera ofother hopefuls:
Woodley
Chastain (Rigby, Miss Julie)
Cotilard
Etc.
There’s big Oscar love for Linklater for the Director’s prize, and in another Picture-Director split….Best Picture to The Imitation Game, Miramax wins.
Julian, I’ll agree that was a misstep. I wouldn’t call it funny…to me it was cringe-inducing or just a “why?” When I hear that phrase these days it’s more said ironically and to be funny. I think something else could’ve been said.
Christophe, again sorry if that came across snarky. I know I’ve made comments like, “He/she wants the film to be smarter/funnier/sadder than it is”
Christophe: What would you say is the most unintentionally comical scene in Interstellar? (nice idea for a parlour game).
(SPOILER ALERT!)
My vote would go to Mann wishing Coop good luck and telling him not to judge him as he leaves him to die on the ice planet or when TARS saves Hathaway on the water planet by doing a mighty rotating flip flop of sorts. Why didn’t TARS (or was it CASE? I have already forgotten) just pick up the transmitter in the first place?? Why risk two human lives fumbling around in the water when the computer knew where to locate the goddamn thing? (or did I miss some essential information that made the human effort vital?) It seemed to me that TARS was a hell of a lot more adept in water and in figuring coordinates than Brand and that unfortunate dude.
Christophe, do you not like it when a filmmaker tries to reach for the stars (yes, pun) with his storytelling? Nolan’s scripts may not always land but I’ll take one of his movies over 95% of any other writer/director out there. I don’t mean to be snarky but there are a lot of Nolan haters out there that say things like that, it’s almost like they’re trying to put Nolan in his place because they can point out his flaws so easily. Is that the case? “Tragically comical”? He may not be a Fincher or an Anderson (either Anderson really) but he, sort of like Aronofsky, are tackling some pretty big ideas and don’t make movies for the effects but rather the stories.
Chris Price, do you believe the Lead Actress race is effectively over or is there a chance for an upset because I believe Julianne Moore is long overdue for an Oscar. I sure hope she wins. If she wasn’t in contention I’d choose Rosamund Pike for the statuette but I love Julianne Moore so much. I haven’t seen Still Alice but I have a lot of faith in her.
Chris Price: Well, nothing’s settled about Chastain, I guess. But I’ve read five reviews of the film that makes it clear that there’s one main character in the movie. According to these early reviews she is underused in the movie and virtually disappears out of it for the last half. She’s still a vital and decisive character overall, but it’s Isaac’s movie, as far as those reviews go.
But Sasha knows, she’s seen it, so maybe she can settle the debate once and for all?
Rosamund Pike is wonderful but she should stick to comedy! The same goes for Christopher Nolan, but he takes himself and his “ideas” way too seriously to realize how tragically comical his films are.
One side note to my above rant. Is there really a lack of parity between men and women in lead roles this year? I named 27 Lead Actresses (26 if Chastain is Supporting in AMVY). Let’s see how many Lead Actors I can muster:
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Eddie Redmayne – Theory Of Everything
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
Steve Carell – Foxcatcher (even though I’m in the camp that he’s really, truly a Supporting Actor, looks like he’s in so I’ll include him)
Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher
Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
Jake Gyllenhaal – Enemy
Ben Affleck – Gone Girl
Miles Teller – Whiplash
Ellar Coltrane – Boyhood
Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar
Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
Joaquin Phoenix – The Immigrant (debatable whether he’s Supporting or not)
Nicolas Cage – Joe
Tom Hardy – Locke
Tom Hardy – The Drop
Brendan Gleeson – Calvary
Tom Cruise – Edge Of Tomorrow
Bill Hader – The Skeleton Twins
Tom Hiddleston – Only Lovers Left Alive
Russell Crowe – Noah
Tommy Lee Jones – The Homesman (supporting?)
David Oyelowo – Selma (based solely off that awesome trailer, admittedly)
Jack O’Connell – Unbroken (ditto)
Jack O’Connell – Starred Up
Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year (also based off trailer, and notices are extremely positive)
James McAvoy – Eleanor Rigby
John Lithgow – Love Is Strange
Alfred Molina – Love Is Strange
That’s 30 roles and its pretty much everything I’d mention that’s worth mentioning (although there’s still much I haven’t seen). You’ll notice that 3 of those are debatably Supporting turns, so really the list is 27 Leads, THE EXACT SAME NUMBER as my list of Lead Actresses. I’m calling bullshit on Lead Actor being stronger.
Gone Girl is going to flop hard with AMPAS, despite the BOOK’S and SUBJECT MATTER’S ability to get people into the theater to see it. The FILM fails on almost all aspects because Fincher and team brings nothing new to the table and in my opinion Flynn comes off like a fish out of water in the THR roundtable.
I’m late to this argument, but lol. I’ve not seen a viewer so blinded by their own opinion on a film in formulating their Oscar predictions since we had that heinous barrage of Harry Potter obsessives when Deathly Hallows Part 2 was in contention. Where the fuck is there any indication that Gone Girl won’t hit with voters? Where the actual fuck?
1. The Dark Knight
2. Memento
3. Inception
4. Interstellar
5. The Prestige
6. Batman Begins
7. The Dark Knight Rises
8. Insomnia
9. Following
julian the emperor,
Is that the going word on AMVY? I assumed she was running in Lead. If so, we can strike her from that list. Having seen Big Eyes, I can tell you I think Adams gets in. She’s got Harvey and the sympathetic character card to lean on. Seems obvious she’ll be the only thing about that movie that gets noticed. Unless Harvey can carry it to a Best Pic nod. I’ve seen crazier shit happen before.
“It’s interesting to me how many have ranked Memento as one of Nolan’s worst.”
LCBASEBALL22, I’ll take a crack at answering this: I think it could be that as good as Memento is, and it IS, what we now think of a Christopher Nolan film really started in 2005 when he released Batman Begins. Most think of Nolan for The Dark Knight trilogy, Inception, and now Interstellar. Memento came too soon in his career. Plus, the style of Nolan today doesn’t match Memento, at least not to me. Memento feels like a movie without a director, just something great without someone to credit.
Anyone who says its a “weak year” for actresses should take a look at the above list. I posted a total of 27 accomplished performances above that are all worthy of praise in one way or another. If you think its a weak year, you’re not looking hard enough. EVERY YEAR EVER has plenty of great work for the curious to seek out and be enthralled by. The problem is that most people don’t give a shit to go out and actually see anything so much of the great work gets marginalized, thus creating a lower demand for, shall we say, more interesting fare at the cinema, thus lowering the promotional capability and reach of the few in the industry who actually foster that kind of work, further pushing said work to the margins where it gets even harder and harder for any normal person to see anything that doesn’t cost 160 million dollars to produce, thus making it virtually impossible that anyone but me and a few other people in this comments section to actually see any of the shit I’m talking about. Which brings us to the present where everyone’s bitching about a behemoth Chris Nolan movie that everyone will see and simultaneously bitching about how there’s no great roles for actresses. Except that there are, and no one is paying to see them. You want more interesting cinema? You gotta pay for it with Time, Effort and Cold Hard Cash. End rant.
Anyone who says its a “weak year” for actresses should take a look at the above list. I posted a total of 27
Chris Price, yours is a great roundup of 27 great performances. I would be happy to see any of those names you list in paragraph be nominated — and I would also be as surprised as you would be if your list of “most likely” is far off the mark.
It would be the strangest field of Best Actress nominees in many years if more than 2 names from the broader and less splashy group is able to infiltrate that top tier. I think you and I and most people can agree about that.
Would it be stunning and a cause for celebration if some of the less-appreciated actresses found traction with the Academy? of course it would.
But, that said, speaking for myself, personally, my own opinion and my own reading of the field, I cannot honestly say that I would be ok with any of those 27 names replacing Rosamund Pike. To me, her performance is a touchstone of 2014. It would feel like an oversight to me if the voters somehow fail to build enough ballot support to recognize what that role, that performance and that movie represent as a reflection of the state of opportunities for American actresses in 2014.
“It’s interesting to me how many have ranked Memento as one of Nolan’s worst. It garnered much deserved Oscar nominations for Screenplay and Editing and it’s highly ranked on many lists. Richard Roeper listed it in the Top 5 of the decade. It’s one of my personal all time favorites and everyone I’ve shown it to has loved it, including my wife.”
Well, I can speak for myself: it was very interesting and well written, pretty well done, yet nothing outstanding as far as I’m concerned, and ultimately left me rather cold and unimpressed. There are (not many, but not that few either) movies I’ve seen just once and remember vividly years later (the feel, specific scenes, lines, ideas, themes), and sometimes think about for no reason whatsoever. This was not one of them. It, for me, was not memorable, apart from (if that) the idea at its core. So, yeah, even though I’m sure those who love it find a lot more things to like about it than just that, for me, personally, it was just a pretty well put together gimmick movie – like The Artist. I even like The Artist a bit more, as far as overall unmemorable movies go. I know, I know, I have bad taste, blah, blah… 🙂
Chris Price: Don’t you think it’s established by now that Chastain’s part in AMVY is a supporting turn? (if nominated there, she could be a real threat to Arquette’s otherwise preordained win).
I agree with your top 5 except for Amy Adams. There’s something fishy about that movie, I don’t believe in it. I think Adams is out once Big Eyes is out there for everyone to see. I think Woodley or Swank are stronger bets, but I think there’s room for a surprise fifth slot (let’s hope anyway). The race is still fairly young, so let’s wait and see. IF Big Eyes delivers, I mean, sure, Adams could even win the damn thing (though Moore’s overdue status is a serious impediment for her chances, since her very own overdue status is what could have been a deciding factor behind her own campaign!)
For the record, I’m not including Moore in Maps To The Stars because I believe they should, and will, run her in Supporting for that one. To try and have her go up against herself in Alice is straight up suicide.
Kind of have to join in on the Rosamund Pike backlash here. I think that movie would have been better with a better actress in that role. It really doesn’t take much to act like an inhuman robot.
Benutty: Ok, technicalities aside (you seem to be the kind of guy who cares a great deal about them), I must tell you that Richard Jenkins is just as impressive as McDormand in OK. Both of them would have been prime material for Oscar recognition if OK had been a movie, indeed.
Ryan, I have seen Still Alice and Moore is your Lead winner easily. In a cakewalk. Between that and Maps, she’s having an all time career best year (which is really something considering her body of work up to this point). Having said that, Pike would be in my 5 at this point for sure. I’m having a hard time figuring out who could possibly change the game aside from Moore who absolutely will when that movie hits, so I’m thinking the below list is probably firm for your Oscar 5:
BEST ACTRESS:
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Felicity Jones – The Theory Of Everything
Reese Witherspoon – Wild
Amy Adams – Big Eyes
Alt. Hilary Swank – The Homesman, Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year, Jessica Chastain – Eleanor Rigby, Shailene Woodley – The Fault In Our Stars, Emily Blunt – Into The Woods
That list doesn’t include fantastic performances that have no shot at getting in, like Anne Dorval from Mommy, Marion Cotillard in both The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night, Paulina Garcia in Gloria, Emily Blunt in Edge Of Tomorrow, Mia Wasikowska in Tracks, Tilda Swinton in Only Lovers Left Alive, Scarlett Johansson in Under The Skin, Agata Trzebuchowska and Agata Kulesza in Ida, Kristen Wiig in The Skeleton Twins, Tessa Thompson in Dear White People, Jenny Slate in Obvious Child, Dakota Fanning in Night Moves, Gugu Mbatha-Raw in Belle, Robin Wright in The Congress and Charlotte Gainsbourg in Nymphomaniac.
Can someone link me to the post about the Best Actress race so I can rant about how we’re lacking a healthy competition this year because the best role and performance of the year was on television instead? McDormand’s performance as Olive Kitteridge is by far the best bit of acting I’ve seen by either gender since DDL in There Will Be Blood.
Interstellar was so ridiculous, at times I thought I was watching A Monty Python’s Space Odyssey, except the latter would actually be a great film. Now I feel bad they never did such a film! Instead we get stuck watching 3 hours of Christopher Nolan’s poop dry on screen!
Julian, that isn’t actually the argument I’m making. It’s actually an argument closer to the one Ryan’s making.
My argument is that one actress’ inclusion in the nomination list does not make hers or anyone else’s non-nomination more or less worthy. What Ryan said and what I’m questioning is that it would be a failure on the Academy’s part to not nominate Gone Girl in, as an example, the Lead Actress field. My argument is that labeling it a failure is suggesting that the five nominees in place of Gone Girl don’t deserve their nomination AND/OR that every Academy voter deemed Gone Girl undeserving–NEITHER OF WHICH I THINK WOULD BE TRUE. I think that for the most part all of the nominees that AMPAS nominates ARE deserving.
My argument here has always been anti-snub culture and the length of the argument has been a defining of terms that got out of hand.
AND/OR that every Academy voter deemed Gone Girl undeserving–NEITHER OF WHICH I THINK WOULD BE TRUE.
Anyone who knows me even a little bit knows that I ALWAYS resist condemning the entire Academy for the tastes of a few hundred who are sometimes responsible for tipping the balance from Wow toward Meh. Over and over, repeatedly here on the site, on twitter, and on podcasts I’m ALWAYs trying to remind people that the Academy consists of thousands of filmmakers we have all loved and admired all our lives, thousands of filmmakers who have earned our respect for their fascinating talent, sophistication and fine judgment.
I was actually GLAD we got proof last year that 4,700 members of the DGA can be so evenly divided (nay, torn asunder!) about which two movies to honor that they ended up with a TIE VOTE. Proof positive that many many Oscar winners in Academy history have probably won by a razor thin margin. Maybe as little as half a dozen ballots.
It’s simply accepted as verbal shorthand when we say ‘Kentucky failed to oust a dickhead slimeball like Mitch McConnell’ when WE ALL KNOW that not everybody in Kentucky voted for him. That goes without saying. It’s likewise obviously imprecise to say, “America chose to elect a GOP-controlled Senate.” — but that gets said anyway. Nobody in his right mind thinks that this outcome was a unanimous decision by “America.”
Reality: There are Academy members who like movies that most sophisticated movielovers find baffling and ridiculous.
So yes, I’m sorry, but when the Academy as a whole chooses to say The Blind Side is more worthy of a Best Picture nomination and selects The Blind Side to represent the 10 Best Movies of the Year instead of The White Ribbon, or A Single Man, A Prophet, or The Road, or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, or Moon, or In the Loop — then I see no reason to mince around and not say that the Academy electorate as a whole FAILED to recognize a lot of great movies. The votes were counted; some inferior junk got in and some superior films got snubbed. I’m not afraid to say voters caused a dozen great films to be snubbed in favor of mediocrity.
You can disagree. You can thrown down with the 15% of the Academy who think The Blind Side is the bees knees. That’s fine with me.
But don’t tell me I’m lazy for using the word failure and don’t tell me that I mislead readers. I say what I think and you’re welcome to say whatever you think. I don’t try to tell you which words you can use to express your feelings so I’d appreciate it if you don’t try to police my word choices, alright?
It’s a waste of time to aggressively interrogate me about which of the 400 actresses this year I would be appalled to see nominated instead of Rosamund Pike. I’m not interested in confessing to you who they are.
Benutty, you’re nitpicking here. Ryan’s point of view is good common sense. I mean, do you seriously think that an actress getting a nomination for doing good work is an unworthy nominee, just because you can think of five performances you like even better (in less Oscar-friendly movies, preferably)? The thing is, yes, it would be great to see the lead actresses from Ida this season or Paulina Garcia (for the Chilean movie Gloria) last year nominated for best actress, but the likelihood is close to zero, right? Should we dislike the actual nominees for that reason? Just because I personally liked Garcia better than Blanchett (and could probably think of five nominees like Garcia from all over the world that I personally preferred to Blanchett in a movie I didn’t much care for), doesn’t mean that I found Blanchett’s nomination (and win) undeserving. She was great, let’s celebrate that, rather than bitch about what South Korean or indie actress did a finer job.
” Whoever tried to turn this into…” says a moderator of a site that routinely misleads readers via their headlines before sidetracking to the topic of when the last time a female author wrote an adaptation of her own novel and was nominated for it.
Ryan, it’s hypothetical, but thank you for essentially conceding to the fact that you’ve narrowed down realistic potential nominees to a small enough group of people that Pike will likely SLIDE in, deserving or not. Because, yes, I agree that this year lacks enough lead performances by actresses that are in the Academy wheelhouse and so we are left with a situation that allows subpar, undeserving performances like Pike’s to become nominees. Which is why, like you said, we are routinely left with 5 nominees that aren’t the most deserving 5.
What you still fail to comprehend and address is a situation where you’ve now said that regardless of who the five nominees are if Rosamund Pike is not one of them that the Academy has failed EVEN IF the 5 nominees in her place are 5 actresses of your stated 7 that you think are deserving of a nomination. So if that were to happen you’ve already categorically defined their nominations as failures in spite of the fact that you think they deserve it.
So if that were to happen you’ve already categorically defined their nominations as failures in spite of the fact that you think they deserve it.
I think Bernie Sanders deserves to be President but it isn’t a failure of America that he never will be. Because there are understandable reasons that make him an unlikely candidate.
It will however be a sick grotesque FAILURE if America elects Rand Paul instead of Elizabeth Warren or Hillary Clinton or any of a dozen other democrats get snubbed and we end up with President Ted Cruz.
I’m close to feeling sorry for you if you don’t think people with ballots ever fail to do the right thing.
But my irritation at you for saying it’s “lazy” to use the word failure overrides any pity I might feel for you.
It’s interesting to me how many have ranked Memento as one of Nolan’s worst. It garnered much deserved Oscar nominations for Screenplay and Editing and it’s highly ranked on many lists. Richard Roeper listed it in the Top 5 of the decade. It’s one of my personal all time favorites and everyone I’ve shown it to has loved it, including my wife. She was not so much a fan of Interstellar though…
I couldn’t think of 5 more deserving that’s why I just chose Julianne Moore. Lol. So I agree with you Ryan. Rosamund Pike was outstanding in GG and if Julianne More wasn’t in contention this year I’m sure she would walk away the winner but I see the writings on the wall and I believe she’s overdue for a win. Still Alice is at the top of my “must see” list if only to gauge just how good Julianne Moore is.
sooooo this was a post about the box office this weekend…the monday actuals are coming out and they are all pegging interstellar around 47.5 for the 3-day and 49ish for the 5-day…ouch thats a big bummer for anyone gearing up to make the next original event movie not based on an established property
sooooo this was a post about the box office this weekend…
Thank you. Whoever tried to turn this into a discussion of Gone Girl not getting any Oscar nominations and how that wouldn’t go down as a sick Oscar failure needs to refocus.
also, maybe stop putting “failure” in quotation marks as if the Oscar’s repeated failure to choose the most deserving nominees is a mythological concept.
FYI: According to Variety, it closes at $41.5M (6 days $49.7M).
http://variety.com/2014/film/news/interstellar-final-box-office-fails-to-hit-50-million-estimates-1201352400/
Ok, Ryan. Since you have 7 favorites that you’ve deemed deserving of an Oscar nomination… when five of those actresses get nominated and Rosamund Pike isn’t one of them will the Academy have failed? Will Pike have been snubbed?
when five of those actresses get nominated and Rosamund Pike isn’t one of them will the Academy have failed? Will Pike have been snubbed?
Not going to happen. If you think Scarlett Johansson is getting a Best Actress nomination for Under the Skin then you’re crazier and more delusional that that guy who thinks Anne Hathaway is getting a Best Actress nomination for Interstellar.’
I don’t think Scarlett Johannson’s performance in Under the Skin stands a chance, but she deserves a nomination more than _____ ______ or _____ _____ who might be nominated instead. It was a great performance. It’s one of my favorites.
But I do this thing in my head where I have sense enough to know that I can like things that the Oscars will not like.
I’m not sure why all the debate. I already predicted GONE GIRL will get nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, and Best Cinematography. Not only is Jeff Cronenweth absolutely deserving, he is an A-lister, his name is easy to spell, and he is so in with the ASC and the Cinematographers’ Branch. If he were in the clique anymore than he already is, he would make fetch happen. He’s in.
Depending how competitive the picture looks come nomination window, Best Score is also a possibility, though I don’t see it right now.
And watch out — Nolan is a bit far from the final five right now, he could get in since I’m predicting a good chunk of the Directors’ branch will have the right sensibility to connect with the piece emotionally — but If UNBROKEN and AMERICAN SNIPER are complete duds, and let’s face it, they’re likely to be, Fincher’s nomination will be at hand.
Ok, for what it’s worth: that was actually NOT an authentic Julian the emperor comment. It was my friend hijacking the conversation, actually! The bastard. I’m not a big GG fan, either, but I do think Pike is pretty cool in the part.
100% agree with you, Julian. She plays an otherwise interesting and dynamic woman with the humanity of a robot. I think it’s plainly obvious what kind of character Amy becomes in the very first glimpse of her that we’re given. Sorry if that means I think Johansson in Lucy handles a less dynamic character with far more flavor.
“Pike is plain enough and little known enough to be as unassuming as the first act of Gone Girl needs her to be.”
That is a correct observation. The thing is, though, you could tell from the get go that she’s raving mad, which is one of the reasons why the movie just doesn’t work. I think it’s one of the least interesting portrayals I have even seen on film, because it’s so utterly out there, that it’s impossible to engage with.
My perspective on snubs means that if (when!) Rosamund Pike does not get nominated for Best Actress it won’t mean that the Academy has ignored her or thinks her performance is undeserving–that’s actually something none of us will be able to say for certainty because in a secretive voting system we don’t get to know how many, if any at all, votes an actor/film gets. If she gets one then she wasn’t ignored. By definition.
But what we will know in this scenario is that a larger number of Academy voters found 5 other actresses (perhaps more than 5 other actresses) deserving of a nomination than did Rosamund Pike. And that ISN’T to say “more deserving” because it’s to say that those actresses just got more votes.
“Snub” and “failure” are lazy and ill-defined reactions to the nomination process.
“Snub” and “failure” are lazy and ill-defined reactions to the nomination process.
Ok, you be the guy who thinks the Oscars never fail to make the right decision.
I’ll be the ‘lazy’ guy who thinks otherwise.
Fuckin hell. Leave me alone now.
Rosamund Pike could be replaced by anyone and that actress would be the one we’d be talking about instead of her. What people are lauding a deserving performance on her part is actually just a dynamic character in exciting circumstances. Pike is plain enough and little known enough to be as unassuming as the first act of Gone Girl needs her to be.
Actresses I think deserve the Best Actress nomination more than Rosamund Pike:
– Anne Hathaway in Interstellar
– Scarlett Johansson in Lucy
– Emily Blunt in Edge of Tomorrow
– Marion Cotillard in The Immigrant
– Kristen Wiig in The Skeleton Twins
and though I haven’t seen them, I’m assuming by the reactions from those people who have seen them added to my knowledge of them as actresses in other films:
– Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
– Julianne Moore in Still Alice
– Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything
– Hilary Swank in The Homesman
– Mia Wasikowska in Tracks
And so, Ryan, can you indulge me? Which actresses can you see getting a nomination over Rosamund Pike that don’t deserve a nomination?
well, forgive me if I have to go stand far far away from anybody who tries to say Anne Hathaway in Interstellar is more likely or more deserving of an Oscar nomination than Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl. Same goes for Scarlett Johansson’s Lucy and Emily Blunt’s whatever-her-character-was-called. (Is it a bad sign for Oscar prospects when we can’t even think of the character’s name? yes, I sort of think so.)
I’m slowing backing away from you and your sci-fi Oscar girls. I’ll be over here behind the bookcase.
I forgot about Marion Cottillard in Two Days One Night — gorgeous, spectacular performance in a deeply meaty role. So I think I’ll rewrite my top 5 favorites already:
Marion Cottilard (Two Days One Night)
Essie Davis (Babadook)
Scarlett Johansson (Under the Skin)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle)
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Robin Wright (The Congress)
Who doesn’t deserve to be nominated INSTEAD of Rosamund Pike? Is that the question?
Answer: Literally Every Other Actress in Any Movie I’ve Seen this Year not on my list of seven favorites does NOT deserve an Oscar nomination. Aside from the 7 names on my list, NOBODY else I have seen this year deserves a nomination as much as Rosamund Pike does.
I don’t have time to list all 200 less-deserving and less-likely names, ok?
Ranking Nolan – cool!… I’m in! The ones I’ve seen:
Inception – 9.5/10 (one of my all-time favorites, and still rising with every rewatch, though not a lot, as I loved everything about it from the very first second)
The Dark Knight – 9 (might be THE strongest 9/10 on my list – I simply can’t find any reasonable way of bumping it up to a 9.25, even though I’d very much like to)
The Dark Knight Rises – 8.75 (I still think it’s a very good movie, albeit with some problems)
Interstellar – 8.75 (I didn’t take to it much, like I said, but its qualities are unquestionable – as are its flaws, I would say)
The Prestige – 8.75 (I should probably rewatch this to see where exactly I should rank it compared to the two it’s tied with – and I might, I remember liking it)
Batman Begins – 8.5 (pretty good)
Memento – 8.5 (and I honestly expect I might even rate it lower if I rewatch it, though I have little interest, to be honest)
“And there has probably never been an instance in the history of Oscars that all 5 nominees are the most deserving in any category. Ever. Because this is Oscars we are talking about.”
Or mightn’t it be simply because there’s never a clear “5 most deserving”, but rather (most of the time, wildly varying) opinions as to what those 5 might be, and because it’s all a bit subjective anyway, and no set of 5 can ever come close to satisfying everybody with a (competent) opinion on the matter?
P.S.: Of what I’ve seen so far (which isn’t much – Boyhood is next on my “to do list”), Gone Girl is actually the best of the year thus far, for me (not my favorite, but close, and the best overall, as my favorite is a rather subjective pick), and it wouldn’t even be a bad BP winner, so I’m rooting for it to get lots of nominations and wins at this point, for sure, as my favorite right now has no chance at getting anywhere near the Oscars.
Ryan, I won’t say Gone Girl and Flynn aren’t worthy for nominations, because they are, but as you and Benutty state: These are the Oscars we’re talking about. Up in the Air was a full blown lock for the win, not nomination, but win for adapted screenplay. Up until the PGA/DGA, The Social Network was a lock for the wins for director and picture. In my opinion, Inception was a lock for the win for editing. The Master seemed like a lock for at least original screenplay and cinematography 9in my opinion deserved at least 8 or 9 nominations) and we all know how that turned out. If Flynn doesn’t get nominated then the Academy fucked up. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it was left out on nomination morning. I believe Up in the Air and The Master to be much better written than Gone Girl, as much as I like the writing. The snubs, my friend, they be abounding.
I apologize if I gave you the impression that my opinions aren’t subjective. I thought that was why there’s a word for opinion.
Winning an Oscar when you don’t deserve to win it is very different from being nominated for an Oscar and not deserving it. And you’re still talking about MORE deserving while I’m talking about NOT deserving so let’s agree to see the idea of snubbing and failures in different ways.
I agree with Ryan. && I’ll remember you Benutty come nomination day. If Gone Girl falls flat on its face then kudos to you for correctly predicting that but I don’t see it happening. It will get a healthy amount of noms, rest assured. Now to address Ryan Adams on which actress deserves a nomination over Rosamund Pike I’d say Julianne Moore. This is her year and she’s one of my favorite actresses out there, I think it’s about time she gets a golden statue. If she gets in, that race is effectively over.
Now to address Ryan Adams on which actress deserves a nomination over Rosamund Pike I’d say Julianne Moore.
Thanks, Nixxx92. Just to clairfy, I haven’t seen Julian Moore in Still Alice. Julianne Moore’s performance in Maps to the Stars is on par with Rosamund Pike’s Amy, (although it could be argued that Julianne Moore is not the lead actress in Maps to the Stars).
What I said was, “I’d like to know the names of 5 actresses who deserve an Oscar nomination more than Rosamund Pike.” — I agree with you, Julianna Moore is equally deserving of a nomination.
I haven’t seen very many truly outstanding performances by lead actresses this year. (not yet anyway). If I had to name my five favorite female performances of the year so far, they would probably be:
Essie Davis (Babadook)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle)
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Robin Wright (The Congress)
Very hard for me to think of any actress who deserves a nomination more than those 5, at this point.
(so, yes, I guess that means I think all the other actresses I’ve seen this year are less deserving).
Apologies for the multiple postings; something odd is occurring on my end where I wasn’t able to put that all in one comment…
BTW, for reference, here are the past Fincher BFCA scores I could find in their archives…
The Social Network- 95
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- 91
Panic Room- 87
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo- 84
Zodiac- 83
or will it receive zero Academy recognition like Zodiac…
One thing that Gone Girl has working in it’s favor is a 4 star BFCA score (90) compared to the 3 star Zodiac (83) and even Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (84) which was much to my surprise as I previously thought GWTDT was a major snub of 2011 but I guess it was not as favorably looked upon as I presumed.
OR will it garner major nominations more like The Social Network:
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay – WON
Best Achievement in Film Editing – WON
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score – WON
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Best Achievement in Directing
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
MENYC, as I said above, I don’t think Oscar nominations always amount to “most deserving,” but in conversations about the Academy failing or there being snubs you’re saying that the nominees that do get in don’t actually deserve to be there. From my perspective, there are few nominees over the years that don’t actually deserve their nominations, even when there are plenty of nominees that may deserve the nomination more (and even that statement is problematic because it’s entirely subjective).
even when there are plenty of nominees that may deserve the nomination more (and even that statement is problematic because it’s entirely subjective).
It’s a relief to hear that you realize your dislike of Gone Girl is entirely subjective.
I think the big question mark for me with Gone Girl is will it essentially be a repeat of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’s fate…
Best Achievement in Film Editing – WON
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
“I don’t think it would be a failure if Flynn, Pike and Cronenweth aren’t nominated because the likelihood that the 15 nominees that beat them out will most likely be deserving.”
Jeez, I hope your smug ass gets taken down on announcement day. And there has probably never been an instance in the history of Oscars that all 5 nominees are the most deserving in any category. Ever. Because this is Oscars we are talking about.
As for the Actress comment, Ryan, it isn’t a matter of who deserves it more, but to say that the Academy failed in their nominees–in a future where Pike isn’t nominated–is to say that the five who do make it in DON’T deserve to be. So instead of me telling you who I think deserves it more (there are plenty), why don’t you tell me who you think would get in that wouldn’t be worthy of the nomination.
The list is endless. I’m filled with dread just thinking about it. Are we seriously going to kick off Monday morning by pretending actresses never win Oscars or get Oscar nominations over the heads of other actresses who are far more deserving? It has happened nearly every year for the past 85 years.
Putting “snubs” in quotations doesn’t turn the annual reality of snubs into a unicorn. Snubs exist. That’s why there’s a word for them.
While we’re on the subject, Ryan, Fox made the screenplay available for download today: https://www.foxscreenings.com/GoneGirl_Final_Shooting_Script.pdf
I’m glad you think that my difference of opinion from yours means that my taste and common sense is failing, but I’ll stand by my belief that you and others will be devastated come nomination day–Gone Girl is going to flop hard with AMPAS, despite the BOOK’S and SUBJECT MATTER’S ability to get people into the theater to see it. The FILM fails on almost all aspects because Fincher and team brings nothing new to the table and in my opinion Flynn comes off like a fish out of water in the THR roundtable.
Adapted Screenplay:
– The Imitation Game
– Unbroken
– American Sniper
– The Theory of Everything
– Into the Woods
with Rosewater and Inherent Vice circling closer to the top than Gone Girl.
I would say Gone Girl will be nominated in:
Best Picture
Best Actress (Rosamund Pike)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Director (David Fincher), Best Actor (Ben Affleck), Best Supporting Actress (Carrie Coon or Kim Dickens), and Best Cinematography are very much possible but not guaranteed. It’ll be interesting to see what the Academy does with the movie.
I’m just throwing this out there but I’d really like a nomination for Carrie Coon. I thought she was great in GG. Anyone agree? What do you guys think her chances are? && I’d say GG’s nominations would be:
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Best Actress
Best Picture
Editing
I would like David Fincher to get in Best Director but I just don’t know. I agree Benutty if there’s no Best Dir. nod then it’s prospects of BP are way lower but here’s hoping.
re: “It will be a failure of the Academy and the blame will be with voters.”
Statements like these are akin to the “snub” commentary that rolls around once nominations come out. In order for there to be snubs or for the Academy to have “failed,” nominations will have to be made that do not deserve the award. I think most of us here agree that in most, if not all, categories this year has a lot of strong contenders. I don’t think it would be a failure if Flynn, Pike and Cronenweth aren’t nominated because the likelihood that the 15 nominees that beat them out will most likely be deserving.
And let’s be honest, does Cronenweth’s work on Gone Girl, while by far the best aspect of that film, actually DESERVE to be nominated when it’s the same exact work he does on every other Fincher collaboration that predates it? Bring a book.
re: “It will be a failure of the Academy and the blame will be with voters.”
moot question, because there’s not going to be any Academy failure when it comes time to mark ballots for Gone Girl.
“if Flynn and Pike aren’t nominated it’s because nominees that beat them out will most likely be deserving. “
Absurd. I’d like to know the names of the 5 actresses who deserve an Oscar nomination more than Rosamund Pike this year. If you don’t think Gillian Flynn is getting an Oscar nomination then that’s your own failure of taste and common sense. Not only is Flynn a solid lock for nomination, she stands an excellent chance of winning.
re: “But we won’t have to blame the Academy or the voters for anything because Gone Girl will easily get 5 or more Oscar nominations.”
which ones? I’d say it has nothing locked, but Cinematography, Editing and Score are its best chances. It won’t get Production, Visual Effects, either Sound, Makeup or Costumes. That leaves Screenplay as its fourth best chance and Pike as its fifth. Let’s be generous and say it gets 4/5 of those–it would need Director for five and if it gets that it’ll get BP. With 4 other nominations, but without Director, a BP nomination is 50/50 at best.
Yeah as others have noted for a film with a run-time of nearly 3 hours that is not in 3D, Interstellar is off to a pretty damn good start…and I think we’ll see a lot of repeat viewings with a minimal weekend to weekend drop reflected in the numbers similar to Inception. This films demands seeing at least twice, even if it’s not Nolan’s best. As a NolanFan here’s my rankings…
Memento: 97
Inception: 95
The Dark Knight: 92
The Prestige: 90
Interstellar- 88
The Dark Knight Rises: 87
Batman Begins: 85
Following: 82
Insomnia: 80
Gone Girl’s #’s are impressive, especially this weekend, because 600 theaters have stopped playing it.
Interstellar is doing pretty well, especially with its running time. But it could have done better. Paramount did a lousy job with it, IMO, and inexplicably released it against BH6, which is presumably why it skewed so old.
Mockingjay is so unbelievably irrelevant of a topic, even in the comments section, on a site called Awards Daily. Anyone comparing the box office projections of Mockingjay to Interstellar or Gone Girl or Gravity or literally anything else that has a chance at awards is out of their minds.
Similarly, lauding The Hunger Games as an impressive film, franchise, story or experience is ridiculous.
I think Nightcrawler will make 30+ actually (if it continues to have ok drops). And really, combined with the great reviews for both the film and Jake … The fact that it could make 30 mill on a small budget when its “type” of film could have gone the 5-6 million cumulative total route (with a different release strategy) makes it pretty cool/significant for me.
GRAVITY was an hour and a half and in 3D. INTERSTELLAR is almost 3 hours and not in 3D. So GRAVITY can be shown twice as much at the higher 3D prices.
The 3D argument washes, but the runtime argument does not. Theatres were virtually emptied to make way for Interstellar and Big Hero 6. Not the same market, sure, but here in the UK there were multiple screens showing interstellar at my local multiplex. Also, account for the monumentally high IMAX take when making these considerations.
I’m happy Nightcrawler is doing well.
It is and it isn’t. For a film that snuck into TIFF, tentatively hoping for someone to notice it, it’s remarkable how bullish Open Road have been about it, though that’s reflected in the film’s quality and in the strength of its numbers… within the context of ORF’s canon. It probably won’t hit $30 million domestically in the end, which could be considered something of a disappointment.
There are/have been a few things about Interstellar that have bothered me regarding what people say about it. I have heard people from this site and friends and family say, “I heard it’s getting mixed reviews.” No. When taken everything together it’s not getting mixed reviews. The reviews are actually pretty good but nowhere near the amazing, outstanding reviews everybody was expecting. This was being hyped as a clear best picture frontrunner which, after having seen it last night, still may be. Also seeing, “It didn’t make ‘this much’ so it’s bad news” is also a quick-to-judge response. It went up against an animated film, people are judging the box office take alongside Nolan’s other releases and comparing it to Gravity’s take. Gravity was half the length, in 3D and more of a roller coaster ride. It was filled with more visual effects. Interstellar is more about story and practical effects. But when CGI is used, oh boy was is amazing. 131 million in overall box office numbers is still very good. I tried seeing it in IMAX on Friday night, sold out. Saturday night, sold out. Sunday AFTERNOON…we got there first. Prime seats. The theater filled to the brim. It’s doing very well considering the runtime and the competition it has. Whatever the numbers may be it’s still a damn good movie.
I’m happy Nightcrawler is doing well. I don’t know many people who have seen it but those who have are truly raving about it, myself included.
I have not seen Insomnia yet so here are my rankings:
Inception
Interstellar
The Dark Knight
Memento
The Prestige
The Dark Knight Rises
Batman Begins
Following
As far as Interstellar is concerned:
Its box office will be mildly disappointing, just like its reviews (low 70s on RT/Metacritic instead of low-mid 80s, etc) … 160-170 million at the domestic boxoffice + 400-500 overseas sounds great. But not when something like 250 domestic seemed quite possible a few weeks ago.
Oscar heavyweight Warner was handling the campaign for The Departed. The last time Fox won was The French Connection (Fox Searchlight won for Slumdog).
Birdman is expanding very well.
Interstellar is a difficult sell.
I made The Departed comparison only in terms of the box-office path that I believe has set Gone Girl on course to exceed $170M.
If Gone Girl doesn’t get 5 Oscar nominations then it’s not the fault of Fox and it’s certainly not the fault the fault of the film. It will be a failure of the Academy and the blame will be with voters.
But we won’t have to blame the Academy or the voters for anything because Gone Girl should easily receive 5 or more Oscar nominations.
20th Century Fox co-produced Braveheart and Titanic.
But it’s true, for past 4 decades Fox has been more concerned with making movies that have popular appeal in order to make money. Best Picture victories or not, Fox Searchlight is a national treasure among production companies. Big Fox does not focus on being an Oscar-bait factory.
20th Century Fox didn’t cram Life of Pi down the Academy’s throat. They collected their $600 million and let the movie speak for itself. A movie like Life of Pi is unharmed by “Oscar heavyweight Warner” inserting Argo up the Academy’s ass.
I’m not very keen on Interstellar’s chances. This doesn’t seem like *the one* that will break through the glass ceiling that Nolan seemingly has with the Academy. This doesn’t mean it won’t get its share of nominations (tech awards certainly, cinematography certainly, maybe Chastain in supporting, maybe a back-of-the-pack BP nod like Inception) but Nolan’s not getting nominated, nor will the script.
I realize Sasha likes to position Gone Girl as an underdog for narrative reasons, yet come on — big Hollywood movie, big stars, big director, based on a major bestseller. With all of this going for it, it would’ve been a surprise if Gone Girl WASN’T a Best Picture contender, and it’s only helped by the fact that some of the other would-be contenders are hitting a couple of stumbling blocks as people get to see them. Boyhood and Birdman are the only movies that stand as larger favourites than GG at this point, and it’s quite possible Academy voters see those two as too small-time compared to the big glossy Gone Girl.
My Nolan rankings…Memento, Dark Knight, Batman Begins, Prestige, Inception, The Dark Knight Rises, Interstellar, Insomnia, Following. And even ‘Following’ was pretty good, so this is a crazy-high standard of excellence for Nolan’s career.
Inception (100)
The Dark Knight (95)
Insomnia (90)
Memento (90)
Interstellar (85)
The Dark Knight Rises (75)
The Prestige (75)
Following (70)
Batman Begins (70)
Since I started grading one, had to finish it up. Everyone, grade your Nolans.
Inception > The Dark Knight > Insomnia > Memento > Interstellar > The Dark Knight Rises > The Prestige > Following > Batman Begins (I just realized that I may be a fanboy, since I’d still grade Batman Begin as a 70)
I think I’m the only one who doesn’t want Boyhood to win BP… I’ll go for Interstellar and I think it’s better than Gravity… But I’m certainly rooting for Unbroken.. good god!!!
The Lego Movie= OSCARS
Though I want The Tale of Princess Kaguya to win just because I love Japanese animated films.
1. The Dark Knight
2. Insomnia
3. The Prestige
4. Batman Begins
5. Memento
6. Interstellar
7. Following
8. The Dark Knight Rises
9. Inception
Having not seen The Prestige, Insomnia, or Memento (please don’t tear me a new one everyone) my ranking is as follows:
1.Interstellar
2.Inception
3. The Dark Knight
4. TDKR
5. Batman Begins
I’ll get around to the other 3 sometime during this week and update. Which one should I watch first everyone?
GRAVITY was an hour and a half and in 3D. INTERSTELLAR is almost 3 hours and not in 3D. So GRAVITY can be shown twice as much at the higher 3D prices. I paid $5.49 to see INTERSTELLAR for cripes sake. You really can’t compare their weekend numbers without considering that.
THE DARK KNIGHT > INCEPTION > THE DARK KNIGHT RISES > THE PRESTIGE > INTERSTELLAR > FOLLOWING > MEMENTO > BATMAN BEGINS > INSOMNIA
Bryce, sure, why not. I’ll play.
1. The Dark Knight
2. Interstellar
3. Inception
4. The Dark Knight Rises
5. The Prestige
6. Batman Begins
7. Memento
8. Insomnia
Since the Oscars are more fun to watch when my favorite movies are nominated, this worries me a little about Interstellar coming in at #2, but then again Big Hero 6 is animated, and it’s hard to beat animated movies at the box office.
“And what’s wrong with a cold movie?”
Fine…but you can’t just throw around those other names (Kubrick, Scorcese, Haneke, Hitchcock) and compare Memento because they all lack traditional emotional beats. Even if a movie isn’t particularly affecting, if you want me to elevate it to GREAT status, it should say something about the world, about our lives… I don’t think Memento passes that test.
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya = Oscar
100% on Rotten Tomatoes people!
Gosh, while I feel awful for disagreeing with the Second Coming Himself, I gotta disagree and go: The Lego Movie = Oscar.
Big Hero 6 = Oscar.
Who disagrees? No one.
“It’s a cold movie, probably the antithesis of interstellar in that way in nolan’s catalog.”
And what’s wrong with a cold movie? Kubrick and Haneke are usually considered cold. So is Hitchcock. So are some of Scorcese’s best–Taxi Driver, Raging Bull .I usually prefer the cold movies to the ones that give the phony warm fuzzies.
As these films are doing so well financially, the Oscar academy voters might think that’s reward enough. Interstellar can reap the technical categories, unless they campaign a “nobler” message. Gone Girl isn’t Academy taste.
Meanwhile, the studio campaign battle momentum for now is between The Imitation Game and the Theory of Everything; awaiting if American Sniper may upstage. Unbroken ticks all the right boxes.
I re-watched memento within the last year and it falls WAY down the list for me. It’s not a “gimmick” movie, but it’s undeniable that the coolness factor of the structure of that movie is a big reason why it made such an impact in the early aughts. It’s a cold movie, probably the antithesis of interstellar in that way in nolan’s catalog. It might rate slightly higher than the dark knight rises, but otherwise it’s at the bottom of the pack.
Now that Chris Price has brought it up is as good a moment as any. Rank your Nolans, ya’ll.
MEMENTO > BATMAN BEGINS > INTERSTELLAR > THE DARK KNIGHT RISES > THE DARK KNIGHT > (big drop) > THE PRESTIGE > FOLLOWING > INSOMNIA > INCEPTION
Phil is to box office as Nate Silver is to elections.
Phil knows – it won’t top 165.
“Phil knows – it won’t top 165.”
I think it’ll be $170M+
The Oscar bump is not what it once was in 25 years ago, but it’s as strong now as it was 8 years ago. Movies that premiere the first week of October are perfectly positioned to benefit from an Oscar bump in their 4th month of release. The Departed and Gone Girl premiered on virtually the same day of the year, 8 years apart.
Even adjusted for ticket-price inflation, Gone Girl is already well ahead of where The Departed was in its 6th week, and Gone Girl is holding onto its rank more tightly than the more typical drop-off we saw for The Departed. (Gone Girl is back up to #3, in a very competitive weekend, whereas The Departed had already fallen to 7th-place rank in its own 6th weekend).
As was the case with The Departed, mid-January Oscar nominations will be announced just as Gone Girl is entering its 15th week. That’s right where it needs to be in order to get a final surge of interest to grab an additional $10-$15 million.
I think Gone Girl will have already reached $160M before the morning of Oscar nominations. If it does, and if Gone Girl gets as many as 5 major Oscar nominations, then it will easily glide past $170M or even $175M.
I’m not afraid to play math games with Phil and Ken.
If I’m right about Gone Girl hitting $160M by Jan 15th, then Gone Girl flies past $170M by Oscar Night. For my prediction to work, how many more tickets does Gone Girl need to sell over the next 9 weeks? 1.7 million tickets. How many tickets did The Departed sell between its 6th and 15th week? 1.7 million tickets.
Boom.
Well played, Fincher, Flynn and Fox. Well played, indeed.
===
footnote:
The Departed had a budget of $90 million. That’s $106 million in today’s dollars. Gone Girl’s budget is $60 million. The Departed cost 143% more than Gone Girl and they’ll both sell just over 20 million tickets.
(As I’ve said so many times people are sick of hearing it: roughly 20 million tickets is the upper threshold for an R-rated movie that doesn’t have monsters, gangsters, fart jokes or take place in interstellar space. There simply are not more than 20 million smart culturally-engaged grown-ups in America. Never have been, never will be. That’s a fact. Ask any Democrat.)
Interstellar is my 4th favorite Nolan film. That’s actually better than it sounds.
St. Vincent looks like a much stronger holdover than Nightcrawler. But Gone Girl’s position is certainly impressive.
I haven’t seen interstellar yet but I will not be seeing mockingjay. Worst book in the series for me. I loved the first two but the third was terrible.
I hope Nolan does not get a Oscar nom.
INTERSTELLAR is exactly what it was pitched to be – an experience, more than a film. Those types of films have longevity and even though Mockingjay is coming in less than a month, I think it will play well throughout the holiday season. Was it Nolan’as best film? Maybe. It will be divisive, but those who love it will go back for more – I know I will.
Two links on Interstellar I found really interesting (spoilery):
1) Interstellar Timeline:
http://i.imgur.com/MgwWMFU.jpg
2) Confirming the science of interstellar:
http://ikjyotsinghkohli24.wordpress.com/2014/11/07/on-the-science-of-interstellar/
@ Jake, I am sorry. I was talking about 400 million worldwide.
Interstellar is not coming close to making 400 million in U.S. maybe WW but it will be lucky to make its 160 million Budget back in the states.
if Interstellar made at least 400 million bucks by the end of its run, then it is not a disappointment.
Talk about Overhyped. Interstellar should be good for at least 160 but a disappointment nevertheless. I am still really shocked at critcs reviews. They did not give this film a pass what so ever. 73 on Rt, 73 on Metacritic and 81 on BFCA. Bring on Mockingjay.
Gustavo is right. Also consider than Interstellar’s first place start on Wednesday makes it the first film since Chicago in January 2003 to top the daily box office while technically in limited release. It fell off sharply on Thursday, was buoyed by IMAX premiums and rode a wave of enormous hype to that opening, but that’s a pretty impressive feat nonetheless. Still, it looks likely to perform compared to Inception as The Dark Knight Rises did to The Dark Knight in the long run.
I don’t know if the middling reviews brought my expectations so low for Interstellar that it was able to completely blow me away because I was expecting just “okay” but I gotta disagree Patrick. True, the box office take isn’t nothing to write home about but quality wise the film is ace. It was emotional, intense, heart pounding, thought provoking, I mean what more can you ask for from a film? It was well acted & the score was incredible, special effects are top notch, yeah the dialogue is a bit hokey but if you look beyond that you can fall under its spell. I know I was. I’m no fanboy by any means, I enjoy Christopher Nolans films, Inception is one of my faves but Interstellar takes the cake for me. It’s the best film of the year and regardless if it doesn’t capture the zeitgeist or a box office take of 300 mill, it’s still a modern masterpiece. Yeah Im giving it a rave but I was extremely moved & I can’t ask for anything more from cinema. I hope you caught it in 70mm IMAX, absolutely breathtaking.
Interstellar opening is OK but nothing special. So far the boxoffice and reviews just have not matched the hype of this film. It’s not a flop but it is a disappoint boxoffice and quality wise. It has next weekend but after that The Hunger Games will kill it. Fanboy or not this film is just not matching the hype.
agree about GG. I would guess closer to $180M. BTW effects films that open at $50M often make about $180.
Gravity opened in October, too. a tough month. Gravity has the all-time best October weekend. Interstellar’s opening is #22 for November, all-time. 2012 opened to $65M in November, Skyfall to $88M and Catching Fire to $158M. I expect the next Hunger Games will make more in a couple of weeks.
I gotta agree with Gustavo.
Curtis: you might want to cool your anti-Interstellar heat a little.
Interstellar opened in limited release on Wednesday. It’s gross on that day and Thursday is nearly immaterial compared to its gross since Friday. From Friday to Sunday it made 50 million, just 5.8 million less than Gravity which had 3D SURCHARGE to its advantage, my dear.
CONTEXT, people, CONTEXT!
So is everyone equating Interstellars box office with mediocrity because it’s far from it. That film was breathtaking and the best of the year, for me anyways.
The is very unstellar for Interstellar. Ever since the reviews came out the hype for this movie has went way down hill.
@Bryce. Nice!
But I thought global box office was irrelevant.
That is not good for Interstellar. It made less in 5 days what Gravity made in 3. Also with that opening the film is looking at a 160 million total if that. Between the reviews and now boxoffice Interstellar has officially become 2014 most overhyped film.