I feel like I’m probably trying to make fetch happen with Gone Girl and Best Picture. It should come as no surprise to you readers that I loved the movie. It’s my favorite film of the year, followed very closely by Selma, Boyhood and Inherent Vice. So many of the movies this year are themes about men and though it’s fun to cheer them on from the sidelines and enjoy these wonderful films about them, Gone Girl, Selma, Inherent Vice and Boyhood are really the films that offered me personally a deeper, richer experience. I understand that the Oscar race is about predicting what they’ll do – and they are not single mothers like me, mostly, but rather men. Still, this feels like one of the most wide open and confusing Oscar races in memory. Whether Gone Girl gets in or not seems to be the only suspense it has to offer at this point in time.
Why is that, well, most of the Oscar movies according to pundits happened already, way way back in September at Telluride. Not a lot has changed since then except Gone Girl and Selma. While everyone waits for the two unseen films, Unbroken and Into the Woods, Best Picture seems to once again swirl around a few titles, if the pundits are to be believed.
Gone Girl might not have hit the target with critics but it certainly hit with Maureen Down at the New York Times and Linda Holmes at NPR, not to mention the New Yorker’s Richard Brody. But it’s a tough sell, if you ask any of the pundits or critics for two reasons. The first, it has an ambiguous ending that leaves you feeling uncomfortable. The second, it’s accused of being “airport novel” material and not high fallootin’ enough. And then there is the occasional asshole who chimes in with silly comments like “It isn’t an Oscar movie” or some such – an Oscar movie only means it’s one of the best films of the year and Gone Girl most certainly is that.
Either way, I would like to just point out the disconnect between the Oscar world and the regular world where Gone Girl, and the other films, are concerned. It feels like something is really off if a film is beloved on the one hand and disregarded on the other. We’ll be checking back with this as the year progresses. For one thing, The Imitation Game, Theory of Everything, Foxcatcher have not yet opened, nor earned enough ratings at any websites to be included in the chart. But if you count the public at all, this is how it’s shaping up so far.
First, the Gurus of Gold at Movie City News queried before Selma and American Sniper and after. Here is how they look side by side:
Now let’s look at the stats.
Usually Best Picture can be mostly determined by how the major guilds vote. To figure out a Best Picture contender I usually look at the the likelihood of the guilds to nominate the movie. For Gone Girl I feel like Producers Guild and Directors Guild are probably safe bets. For Screen Actors Guild an ensemble nod would not be out of the question, as the film has one of the best ensembles of the year.
The DGA is really a pretty good determiner for Best Picture, even though they will announce after Oscar ballots have been turned in.
Right now, I feel like the DGA five are:
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar or Morton Tyldum, Imitation Game
Ava DuVernay, Selma
In the end, I am not sure what to think of this year. It feels very weird and kind of thin, like many of the films that were supposed to be stronger bets aren’t quite there.
Where Christopher Nolan and David Fincher might make the DGA’s list, the Academy might not pick them and might instead go for Damien Chazelle for Whiplash, and Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner.
In 2012, the DGA went for Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper but the Academy went with Michael Haneke, David O. Russell and Benh Zeitlin.
Angelina Jolie and Rob Marshall’s fate are as yet unknown but a couple of dark horse contenders should shake up the race a bit and those include:
Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
James Marsh for The Theory of Everything
JC Chandor for A Most Violent Year
Clint Eastwood for American Sniper
Wow,so the audience doesn’t matter anymore when choosing Oscar nominees? Oh and the Oscar choices are better choices now because the audience is ignored? The current film business is bifurcated with the popular movies being super hero, comic book, animated kid’s films,which have been getting higher critics scores lately. Those higher critic scores suggest that the film is worthwhile viewing, but there is a snobby attitude about these films,you know no awards but tech awards for THOSE films. Instead Hollywood gives honors to art house/ indie films ,which generally have much smaller audiences in theU.S. and overseas.And why are these arty films superior to the popular films?Is it content, dialogue,camera angles, lighting, the auteur du jour attached to said films,or wishful thinking? I liked the Oscars better when the audience was included in the selection mix, they made some very good choices,but that was awhile ago when Hollywood made mainstream movies that mattered. Now the audience is scolded on a regular basis and the scolding/movie is bloody boring. Or the auteur du jour is overrated . Or sometimes these days good studio films are set aside and not considered at all. The Oscars need a revolution!
Plus, whether or not you think Interstellar is a better movie than Inception (I do), it’s the most emotionally-driven of any of Nolan’s films, and that’s to the liking of actors and other Academy types.
Interstellar will receive lots of nominations. Many directors seem to admire its and it stars previous Oscar winners and nominated actors, including Anne Hathaway (past winner), Michael Caine (past winner),Matthew Whatever (past winner), Matt Damon (past winner), Jessica Chastain (multiple nominee. This year is rather weak in terms of “Oscar caliber” films. Because of this it will be easier for Interstellar than it was for Inception.
I totally agree with everyone saying box office is a useless measure. Maybe it used to matter more, but the Oscar race is better now that it matters less. It’s based much more on calendar placement, marketing, and distribution than actual audience preference. Besides, there’s a slippery slope with this type of argument, because if you actually wanted to talk about a movie with great box office, why aren’t you wondering why Guardians of the Galaxy isn’t in the BP consideration? It’s the top-grossing film of the year AND it also has better reviews on Rotten Tomatoes than Gone Girl (Metacritic is comparable). If Best Picture really is just about being the best of the year and not what an “Oscar movie” is, then why isn’t it being considered at all?
Don’t get me wrong here: Gone Girl is an amazing movie, definitely one of the best of the year. But it deserves a nom based on its quality, not on its gross. And the idea that something can be an “Oscar movie” is definitely relevant, and it happens that Gone Girl is a lot more of an “Oscar movie” than most.
And if you think Inception, The Dark Knight, Memento or any other Nolan film is the Academy’s “cup of tea” then let’s redefine your use of “nonsensical.”
No, let’s not. Let’s stop acting like you know more than me. They’re no more nor less AMPAS’ cup of tea than Interstellar. Finding any old supposed holes that you wish to perceive in my argument just to back up your support for Interstellar won’t hold water here. The point is that the film is probably not going to get a lot of Oscar nominations in major categories. If all Inception could do in the top eight ones was a Best Picture nod plus an Original Screenplay one, then there’s no way Interstellar performs as well as you seem to hope.
Also, plz, don’t even. You can link me to all the awards that Zodiac did win, but then you refer me to Benjamin Button’s performance? How about you take a look at how many awards it won? Lbr, Zodiac was shut out at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, every single guild save the WGA and the VES, the NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC, NBR and Critics’ Choice. But whoa there, Jake Gyllenhaal received a Choice Movie Actor: Horror / Thriller nomination at the Teen Choice Awards and the film was nominated for the Best Teaser Poster award from the Golden Trailer Awards! Ergo, Interstellar’s going to win 28 Oscars, right?
Then why do some people keep voting for Mitch McConnell?
Because they love Benjamin Button. #dementiababyloop
From what I understand the IMAX sound is the only issue with Interstellar, unless people experienced the same issues in a regular theater. But the movie’s sound is definitely in the conversation. It’s a contender to win both categories. If there truly are issues with the sound no matter what theater it’s in then sound mixing may not be on the table. But sound editing is definitely happening.
Even though I ended up really liking it, I do agree that the first 30-45min of Gone Girl were. . .off. But once it found its footing, I really got into it. I’m with Antoinette on Interstellar’s sound. Don’t get why it’s even in the discussion, given its problems.
Paddy, with Nolan getting 3 DGAs but no best director nominations from the Oscars we are to assume it’s never going to happen? Tom McCarthy got 3 WGA nominations but never an Oscar nod. I think it’ll happen one day. I’d like to think Nolan won’t be the next Rob Reiner (4 DGA nominations and no Oscar love). Ron Howard got in with the DGA for Cocoon and then won for Apollo 13 with no Oscar love, Apollo 13 was a bona fide best picture contender too. But I agree with you about Fincher, his movies before Button were never in the academy’s wheelhouse.
No it’s not. :p
re: “p.s. Nobody wants to see an old baby with dementia.”
arguments to be made that this is also the ending of Interstellar
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE tells us all we really need to know about the current Academy. It had a tacked on happy ending even though it was about deplorable conditions in India. The “Jai Ho” dance number won BP. A movie can be great but if it has the wrong ending, too bad. This is why I think something like INTERSTELLAR beats something like GONE GIRL with the Academy. If you’ve seen both you know which one has the “right ending”. It shouldn’t be that way, but it is. It’d be like if a movie where the bad guy gets to be super successful and rich went up against a movie where someone struggled and eventually found his voice. Good thing that never happened.
p.s. Nobody wants to see an old baby with dementia.
“p.s. Nobody wants to see an old baby with dementia.”
Then why do some people keep voting for Mitch McConnell?
re: “Prior to Benjamin Button, the Academy hadn’t had much of a reasonable opportunity to honour David Fincher. His films hadn’t exactly been their cup of tea, and even when they stood a chance (Zodiac), they were beaten down by precursors who effectively shut them out.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zodiac_(film)#Awards
And if you think Inception, The Dark Knight, Memento or any other Nolan film is the Academy’s “cup of tea” then let’s redefine your use of “nonsensical.”
Yeah I realize that PADDY but tell that to Karger and Feinberg as well then :p
I gladly would.
how many Oscar nominations did David Fincher films have before Benjamin Button scored 13?
Oh great, let’s pretend we have a viable comparable scenario here to bolster a specific argument. Eh, no, it doesn’t apply. Prior to Benjamin Button, the Academy hadn’t had much of a reasonable opportunity to honour David Fincher. His films hadn’t exactly been their cup of tea, and even when they stood a chance (Zodiac), they were beaten down by precursors who effectively shut them out. Benjamin Button was hailed as his big shot at Oscar – remember how it was the favourite before the Slumdog Millionaire train properly took off? – and was, alongside being a good film (and a good David Fincher film), a very baity film. It capitalised on weak competition, enormous buzz and multi-category contention to rally to that impressive figure.
The Academy has blatantly ignored Christopher Nolan’s films in the past across several categories. Three times in Director, at least once in Screenplay, once in Editing (most egregiously, for Inception, of all films), at least once in Score. The Dark Knight Rises, his last film, failed to pick up a single nomination from AMPAS. Interstellar has much less buzz than Benjamin Button did six years ago. To equate their situations at this stage in the race is nonsensical.
Paddy & Gustavo, re: your comments about Nolan’s history with the Academy and how that means it won’t get double digit noms—how many Oscar nominations did David Fincher films have before Benjamin Button scored 13?
If Cuaron can WIN for Gravity it really should not be such a stretch that Nolan could at least be nominated for Interstellar. History will be a lot Kinder to Nolan’s film I assure you.
Danny that’s all subject to interpretation. I’m not forming an argument based on the final shot of a three hour movie. I’m also not arguing a morality play. My argument is that the movie is a whole lot better than people give it credit for. That’s all.
” I get so annoyed with small minded people who call it stupid and lewd. Yes. But that is the point. If u actually stick around till the end u see that things don’t actually work out well for the characters. They make bad decisions and bad things happen.”
That’s actually not the point of Wolf of Wall Street. It’s not a morality play. It’s not about the “bad guys” getting what’s coming to them. Watch the final shot of the movie and you’ll see who Scorcese’s real target is, and it ain’t Jordan Belflour or his cronies.
Carrie Coon is fantastic in Gone Girl (everyone is, really). But Kim Dickens as the sheriff, was the real standout supporting actress. It would be great if they were both represented, but I’m not sure that is possible because of the crowded Best Supporting Actress field.
Gone Girl is a thoroughly enjoyable film, with excellent performances, great cinematography, and top-notch direction. The film is reminiscent of Hitchcock, which is probably why I was riveted from beginning to end. Nowadays, it’s rare for a well-made, dark thriller/mystery to have a positive impact across the board. From critics to audiences, the movie is a hit. If it nabs a Best Picture nomination, it would be richly deserved.
Interstellar could not be much further from being a double-digit Oscar nominee than it is right now. LCBaseball, many of the categories you mention it as a considerable possibility in are ones in which better-received Christopher Nolan films have missed out previously (Screenplay, Editing, Score), not to mention the laughable notion that he’ll be recognised in the Best Director category. AMPAS’ directors branch has snubbed him three times before after the DGA has approved him. It’s just not happening.
Agreed.
But people seem to have short memory.
Yeah I realize that PADDY but tell that to Karger and Feinberg as well then :p
All this talk about what Birdman and Interstellar will / will not get. Nonsense. Y’all don’t have the slightest idea.
If Birdman is a huge hit with voters, it could easily sneak into categories like Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. It’s not unheard of for a film to garner tech nods it wholly doesn’t deserve due to popularity within the race.
Interstellar could not be much further from being a double-digit Oscar nominee than it is right now. LCBaseball, many of the categories you mention it as a considerable possibility in are ones in which better-received Christopher Nolan films have missed out previously (Screenplay, Editing, Score), not to mention the laughable notion that he’ll be recognised in the Best Director category. AMPAS’ directors branch has snubbed him three times before after the DGA has approved him. It’s just not happening.
“The Wolf of Wallstreet is 3 f***ing hours long, and I was done with it after 2…no way it deserved editing. ”
I wish more people actually understood what “editing” means.
Wolf of Wall Street Is a great film! If your a Scorsese lover than you ate that Film up. You can’t just judge editing by length. Thelma did not get a nomination. Leo was the best thing about the movie and quite frankly he got robbed. I get so annoyed with small minded people who call it stupid and lewd. Yes. But that is the point. If u actually stick around till the end u see that things don’t actually work out well for the characters. They make bad decisions and bad things happen.
I’d vote today:
Best Picture – Gone Girl
Best Director – Christopher Nolan / Interstellar
Best Actor – Jake Gyllenhaal / Nightcrawler
Best Actress – Rosamund Pike / Gone Girl
Best Supporting Actor – Tony Revolori / The Grand Budapest Hotel
*I had given serious consideration to Logan Lerman in Fury, but I think his is a leading role alongside Brad Pitt.
Best Supporting Actress – Carrie Coon / Gone Girl
Best VFX – Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
I think Selma is gonna sweep Oscar noms all over the place but fail to with any. Why? Im afraid its gonna be The Color Purple redux.
I got chills while watching the trailer and I am REALLY looking forward to this MLK biopic! Its true that someone mention. Its not a retelling. Feels like something important not to miss at all. And when a movie gets the IMPORTANT label into the awards season, we all know what THAT means 🙂
Gone Girl is doing AMAZING at the box office. Like W O W!! Sasha, is Gone Girl the biggest BO for Fincher ever?
I think Gone Girl is definitely on the bubble right now. I could easily see it tipping in one direction or the other. If I got to vote for all categories at this moment, this is what I’d go for:
Picture: WHIPLASH
Director: Richard Linklater, BOYHOOD
Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal, NIGHTCRAWLER
Actress: Marion Cotillard, THE IMMIGRANT
Supporting Actor: JK Simmons, WHIPLASH
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, BOYHOOD
Original Screenplay: Dan Gilroy, NIGHTCRAWLER
Adapted Screenplay: Bong Joon-Ho & Kelly Masterson, SNOWPIERCER
Editing: Sandra Adair, BOYHOOD
Cinematography: Darius Khondji, THE IMMIGRANT
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Costumes: Patricia Norris, THE IMMIGRANT
Score: Johnny Greenwood, INHERENT VICE
Song: “Hate The Sport” from WE ARE THE BEST!
Animated Feature: THE LEGO MOVIE
Documentary Feature: JODOROWSKY’S DUNE
Foreign Language Film: WE ARE THE BEST!
Makeup: GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
Visual Effects: INTERSTELLAR
“When I saw Gone Girl there were many older people who attended my showing, to my surprise. I sat right behind a group of older ladies, maybe 50-mid 60s, and they were SHOCKED by the movie. One of them said “oh my gosh, this is disgusting” and then blamed one of the other ladies for wanting to see it. It isn’t a movie the older generations get or understand. If that’s how they reacted I can only imagine how The Academy will react….”
I get the point you’re trying to make, but you can’t really say Gone Girl “isn’t a movie the older generations get or understand” based on the group of older women that sat in front of you in the theater. Your group of “older ladies” doesn’t speak for every older guy or woman. I’m sure there are plenty of people ages fifty and older who liked Gone Girl just fine. Remember that Academy members had no problem voting the shocking Fatal Attraction as a BP nominee, and that was in a group of five. They voted the shocking The Silence of the Lambs as the BP winner. The question remains if Gone Girl has enough support to get into BP based on this particular group of 6000 AMPAS voters. Personally, I think it will get nominated, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Again, Gone Girl is a big question mark I’d say. Is it going to be a repeat of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or is it a more viable contender like Social Network and Benjamin Button? I think it’s probably going to be more the former and would not be surprised to see it only tick Actress and some tech categories.
When I saw Gone Girl there were many older people who attended my showing, to my surprise. I sat right behind a group of older ladies, maybe 50-mid 60s, and they were SHOCKED by the movie. One of them said “oh my gosh, this is disgusting” and then blamed one of the other ladies for wanting to see it. It isn’t a movie the older generations get or understand. If that’s how they reacted I can only imagine how The Academy will react…..with trepidation….I personally disliked the film, but my head isnt in the sand. I realize it’s potential for lots of nominations, but I also see the potential for it bombing amongst the members. Either it will do well with nominations, and it would be lucky if it won anything….or it will barely get any nominations, and win nothing. Any acting nominations outside of Pike would be a shock and too kind. And I won’t be surprised if/when it isn’t nominated for picture and director.
Okay, so I got inspired to see how the 2010s Best Picture nominees stack up. Here are their domestic box office rankings:
Toy Story 3 – $415,004,880
Inception – $292,576,195
Gravity – $274,092,705
Lincoln – $182,207,973
True Grit – $171,243,005
The Help – $169,708,112
Django Unchained – $162,805,434
American Hustle – $150,117,807
Les Miserables – $148,809,770
Argo – $136,025,503
The King’s Speech – $135,453,143
Silver Linings Playbook – $132,092,958
Life of Pi – $124,987,023
The Wolf of Wall Street – $116,900,694
Captain Phillips – $107,100,855
Black Swan – $106,954,678
The Social Network – $96,962,694
Zero Dark Thirty – $95,720,716
The Fighter – $93,617,009
The Descendants – $82,584,160
War Horse – $79,884,879
Moneyball – $75,605,492
Hugo – $73,864,507
Midnight in Paris – $56,817,045
12 Years a Slave – $56,671,993
The Artist – $44,671,682
Philomena – $37,709,979
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close – $31,847,881
Dallas Buyers Club – $27,298,285
Her – $25,568,251
The Kids Are All Right – $20,811,365
127 Hours – $18,335,230
Nebraska – $17,654,912
The Tree of Life – $13,303,319
Beasts of the Southern Wild – $12,795,746
Amour – $6,739,492
Winter’s Bone – $6,531,503
“The Theory of Everything” is a fine film, but I wonder whether it will be anyone’s #1 film. And to make the nomination, you have to be chosen as the #1 film on enough ballots. I could easily see The Theory of Everything being mentioned on more ballots in the 2-5 slots than many other films, but having none or way fewer #1 rankings than, say, Grand Hotel or Interstellar, who will have strong contingents of passionate supporters in the Academy who will put them #1 on their ballots. Which is why I believe Theory is in more danger of not getting a Best Picture nomination than Interstellar and Grand Hotel.
Remember, to be one of the 5-10 possible BP nominees you got to first get at least 1 % of the ballots’ #1 votes, and then enough #2-5 votes from redistribution (from those ballots that went to films that got way more votes than necessary to qualify or not enough #1 votes to get through the first round of balloting) to reach the magical 5% of ballots to guarantee a nomination. So having a passionate minority that chooses your film as the very best is more helpful to getting nominated than being thought 3rd best but not better than 3rd best by everybody.
Based on that, I think Boyhood, Birdman, and probably Gone Girl and The Imitation Game (based on festival reports) probably have the nomination in the bag. Selma, based on early word, looks like it may garner enough passionate support for a nomination too. I believe Interstellar and Grand Hotel Budapest will have enough passionate minority support to be nominated, because both these films have a strong (or at least very vocal) contingent of people who rank them as their favorite film of the year.
Beyond that I am not sure what will likely make it in and what will more likely fall away.
Ugh, Bryce. Cinematography and Score are always the fields that upset me most on nomination morning. Recent disappointments were Sean Bobbitt for 12YAS and Romer for BotSW. Cinematography is definitely going to be a heartbreaker this year–Bradford Young’s work on AMVY is phenomenal, and I think his work on Selma is probably better. I’ll be upset if he doesn’t make the cut.
The Wolf of Wallstreet is 3 f***ing hours long, and I was done with it after 2…no way it deserved editing. Speaking of WoWS I finally got around to watching it the other day and I’m sorry to those who like it but holy fuck that was the stupidest, crudest, and lewdest shit. I’ve really liked 20th Century Scorsese (The Departed, The Gangs of New York, Shutter Island, even Aviator and Hugo were alright) but I couldn’t watch that for 3 hours and I can’t believe the Academy deemed it worthy of Best Picture consideration let alone acting nominations. If having two talented actors act like imbeciles in a movie inundated with drugs and sex and corruption is what’s rewarded in Hollywood these days then I think it’s best Nolan maintain his decency and dignity and keep doing what he’s doing regardless of whether the awards committee approves. I’ve pretty much lost all respect for the AMPAS not to mention the 77% of critics who gave this film a pass…
Yeah, there’s always the possibility of huge head-scratcher like DALLAS BUYERS CLUB nominated for Editing over the likes of WOLF OF WALL STREET. I’m dreading those the most. Kirk Baxter/Fincher is a darling of The Academy. He could get in in heartbeat. He might already be in. Just saying.
I’ve too seen THEORY OF EVERYTHING mentioned as possible Cinematography nominee. I haven’t seen the film, so I’ll give prognosticators the benefit of the doubt, but I’m left scratching my head when I look at the trailer.
I am a sucker for the lensing in all of Paul Thomas Anderson’s films, surely INHERENT VICE won’t be the exception and Robert Elswit also did NIGHTCRAWLER? How does the branch ignore such a year’s work?. How do you in good conscience leave out GONE GIRL? In INTERSTELLAR Nolan achieved the loveliest visual expression of all his films. SELMA looks magnificent in a Z meets LINCOLN sort of way. Ugh. Sure to be a heartbreaker on nomination morning.
Bryce, I don’t disagree with you that Interstellar looks better on paper for all of these nominations. I personally doubt that Lubezki is going to win a second Cinematography award in two years. I think Hoyt’s got it this year. I’m just saying that Birdman shouldn’t be counted out of races that it COULD be nominated in. It’s hard to argue against the correlation between all of the tech categories since the BP field expanded. I think the BP expansion has had a still unacknowledged effect on the other races–my belief is that nomination counts have increased for a larger amount of films because once a voter realizes they’ve decided a film is one of the BP nominees they (probably subconsciously) fit it into other categories that it COULD fit into (Dallas Buyers in makeup and editing?????)
Having also just recently seen Theory Of Everything, I agree with the sentiment that it’s a very thin movie. I hope the rumours of its Oscar/Best Picture buzz falling off are true, since it would be a shame to see this thoroughly average-to-mediocre film make the BP cut ahead of so many other movies that are actually worthy. Redmayne and Davis were both good, but they can’t elevate movie-of-the-week material.
“ROBERT A.
NOVEMBER 16, 2014
I agree with Bryce on his nomination predictions. Eight and seven nominations sound about right for Birdman and Interstellar.”
If Interstellar doesn’t get director, screenplay, or acting nominations, sure. Director is probably the biggest question mark since the Academy has thusfar ignored Nolan’s prowess, but Inception was nominated for screenplay and I see no reason that Interstellar won’t be as well. As far as Birdman goes I have not seen it but based on the Gold Derby experts it looks like 9 or 10 could be possible.
Benutty, sure stats are undeniable. They can also be selected to fit a narrative, but look at all those other players, and look at what the branches usually go for when it comes to nominating.
Visual Effects: It would have to be nominated over INTERSTELLAR, APES, GUARDIANS, HOBBIT, EXODUS, GODZILLA. This group is notorious about not giving a shit aesthetic, effectiveness, beauty, narrative seamlessness. They mostly care about billable hours, meticulousness, and sure, from time to time, “innovation”. Small films with killer effects like TREE OF LIFE, LOOPER or DREDD do not fare well.
Production Design: Again. Great work, but in front are BUDAPEST HOTEL, BIG EYES, INTO THE WOODS, MR. TURNER, HOBBIT, UNBROKEN, IMITATION GAME, and yes INTERSTELLAR. All either “period”, “fantasy” or “big as fuck” — branchy likey.
Score: Is it even eligible? I loved it. Could be. Desplat is in, like de-facto, he usually ends up nominated for his most forgettable of the year (FYC: GODZILLA, BUDAPEST HOTEL), but he’s name is already on the ballot. Word is IMITATION GAME’s score is a winner, but then you have assumed-juggernaut UNBROKEN, so he’ll probably get in for that, don’t discount a double nomination. Then you have Zimmer’s absolute best in a long time, can’t miss. THE JUDGE is a dreck, but Thomas Newman is Thomas Newman, it’s horrible, but not the first time we’d have to swallow it, recall SKYFALL? Marco Beltrami is lurking, he’s respected and deservedly so.
Sound Editing? No.
Sound Mixing? Eh maybe a la LLEWYN DAVIS? but there aren’t people singing so probably not. You got a musical INTO THE WOODS, I’m pretty sure they loved FURY and SNIPER seems like their cup of tea, and then you have all the big loud films.
I just don’t see Boyhood winning best picture, for now at least.
I agree with Bryce on his nomination predictions. Eight and seven nominations sound about right for Birdman and Interstellar.
And Benutty, you may be right about The Theory of Everything’s cinematography. I haven’t seen the film. The boyz over at In Contention have The Theory of Everything listed as one of their predictions for both a cinematography and a score nomination. I’ve also seen The Theory of Everything mentioned for cinematography outside of In Contention, which is why I mentioned it.
Not sure ANTIONETTE but 17 of the 21 Gold Derby “Experts” still predict it for both categories. Here’s how the current predictions go…
Best Picture (15 ballots)
Best Director (7 ballots, 2 of which are Dave Karger and Scott Feinberg)
Best Original Screenplay (7 ballots)
Best Cinematography (20 ballots)
Best Editing (18 ballots)
Best Production Design (16 ballots)
Best Score (17 ballots)
Best Sound Editing (17 ballots)
Best Sound Mixing (17 ballots)
Best Visual Effects (19 ballots)
It’s interesting to note that 7 also have pegged Jessica Chastain for Best Supporting Actress, when personally I thought Hathaway was the better of the two…
“The film has about as much style as a cinder block half buried in the back yard.”
I saw Foxcatcher last night, too. I didn’t find it to be a bore at all. And Bennett Miller has never, ever been about “style.” But he sure can tell a good story. It wasn’t one of my favorites of the year, but I think it’s a lock for Best Picture in an expanded field. Carell and Tatum were both good, though I’ve seen better performances from both of them. Mark Ruffalo was the strongest part of the movie for me. Just excellent work from him.
Bryce, Birdman can easily factor into Production Design, Visual Effects, Sounds and Score. If you think that Birdman has a shot at winning Cinematography (which it does), consider these stats: in the last 5 years (when the BP nominees increased to ~10), every Cinematography winner has also been nominated in Visual Effects, Production Design, both Sound categories, and Score. In fact in those 5 years, the Cinematography winner has also won: Visual Effects 5/5, Sound Mixing 3/5, Sound Editing 3/5, Score 2/5 (the last two) and Production Design 2/5.
These are stats the bode well for Interstellar, as well, considering the last 5 cinematography winners have also been the visual effects-heavy films of their year: Avatar, Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi and Gravity.
Maybe this is a dumb question. How does INTERSTELLAR get Sound Mixing and Sound Editing if everyone’s biggest complaint is about the Sound?
Robert, re: Theory’s “cinematography and score nods as well.”
Both of these things are the most appalling aspects of the film. The cinematography is truly awful–every single frame has the “glow effect” added to it and one wouldn’t be wrong in saying it went through an Instagram filter before being finalized.
Even without acting nominations (though I think McC should at least garner a nomination again) Interstellar can be a 10 nom picture…
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Production Design
Best Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
OK, let’s tally, shall we? I’m seeing claims that some films will get double digit nominations. I believe no contender this year will get double digits, well maaaybe INTO THE WOODS or UNBROKEN if they live up to their fullest potential, and that’s very, very unlikely at this point. I mean, c’mon, really?
BIRDMAN is a strong player in Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and that’s it, it is not a player on anything else, if you think it is [redacted]. That’s Eight (8) — and that is its best case scenario. I wouldn’t be shocked if it missed out on one when all is said and done.
INTERSTELLAR will get Picture, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing. I frankly don’t see Best Editing happening, and I’m being optimistic about Production Design, there are many films that could easily precede INTERSTELLAR when it comes to the branch’s taste (BUDAPEST HOTEL, MR. TURNER, EXODUS, BIG EYES, INTO THE WOODS, etc). So that’s Seven (7) total with real chances of being less. It is pretty clear at this point that INTERSTELLAR will not be as strong with The Academy as INCEPTION was.
Interstellar- 10
Birdman- 9
Unbroken- 8
——————
Imitation Game- 6
The Theory of Everything – 6
Gone Girl – 6
Foxcatcher- 6
——————
Into the Woods- 5
Grand Budapest Hotel- 5
Mr. Turner – 5
Whiplash- 5
Boyhood- 5
“Having seen it myself, I have no clue why anyone that HAS seen it would think it will fall into the nominations or be worthy of BP. Redmayne and Jones are its best chances and by my vote even those are slim.”
I haven’t seen The Theory of Everything. I do think the Gurus of Gold might be a little generous in placing it at #4 Most Likely for a BP nomination. With that said, I’m about as confident as one can be at this stage of the race that Redmayne and Jones will get nominated. Redmayne has been getting pretty much raves for his performance (including an endorsement from Hawking himself), Focus Features is campaigning the hell out of the film, and Redmayne is working the circuit hard. The movie also has a decent shot at an adapted screenplay nomination (the category is a little thin this year), and I’ve also heard it mentioned as a possibility for cinematography and score nods as well. If the movie does get nominations for both lead performances and a screenplay nod, then it seems to stand a pretty good chance of slipping onto the BP list in an expanded field.
Interesting yet useless stat I read somewhere on the Interwebs: since 1990, only 13 films have received nominations in both Best Actor and Best Actress. Of that 13, nine of the films also received director nominations. Do I think this suggests The Theory of Everything could get a director nomination? Hell no! Like I said, the stat is essentially useless, but I find these stats fun just the same.
“an Oscar movie only means it’s one of the best films of the year”
Hardly ever.
Besides, the Academy has it´s preferences, of course. They are cool on light fooded ironic stuff like the wonderful Wes Anderson is delivering, and they hardly get attracted to low-key episodic structured films (like Boyhood, for example). The films that look like proper Academy darlings on paper are probably “Selma” (important issue, and period drama – that sells) and “The Imitation Game” (period drama, and british!).
And concerning “Gone Girl”: I didn´t like it as much as I liked “Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”, and it´s clearly low-grade to his masterpieces “Social Network” and “Zodiac”, but it made so much money (with mostly favorfable reviews) that the Academy probably won´t resist – not for a win, but a nomination.
Would be great to see “Citizenfour” in the Best Picture-race, but that´s just wishful thinking.
Thanks and bye.
And I allways thought that box office should’nt be considered.
I will be politically incorrect: pop corn people Is a Little dumb.
They like Transformers, Marvel movies, dumb comedies and things like that.
That’s not good cinema. Sorry.
Wow. THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING looks the part. I’m surprised to hear that, Benutty.
The Theory of Everything has been open for 2 weeks. The Gurus have it 4th in line for a BP nomination, despite the fact that it holds Metacritic scores of 72/100 (critics) and 5.1/10 (users). These scores are lower than: Interstellar, Foxcatcher, Whiplash and Gone Girl. Theory isn’t winning any guilds or critics group awards. The pundits are WRONG about it.
Having seen it myself, I have no clue why anyone that HAS seen it would think it will fall into the nominations or be worthy of BP. Redmayne and Jones are its best chances and by my vote even those are slim.
“This year Interstellar and Birdman will likely both be double digit contenders.”
Um, no. As I said in a previous post, Interstellar will be lucky to tie Inception’s nomination count of eight. There’s a pretty good chance Interstellar is going to get less than eight nominations. I don’t think it’s competitive in the acting categories, a screenplay nomination is dicey at best, and even Nolan is going to have to fight for a director slot, which I’m growing increasingly skeptical about. Interstellar won’t be able to rack up double digit nominations just from the tech categories.
“With Boyhood being such a minimalistic film I don’t propose any more than Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. Maybe an acting nomination but that’s a big if…”
Not really. Patricia Arquette is not a “big if” at all. She’s not only looking very strong for a nomination in Supporting Actress, she’s one of the frontrunners for the actual win.
The. Best Picture nominee should. 4 out out 4 star films. Only Boyhood.Birdman Love is strange and 2 Days , 1 night among non documentaries. life itself , citizen four are also 4 star films. Gonegirl, the theory of everything and whiplash most people disagree on the latter are 3 star movies. Interstellar 2 stars and should not be in the oscar conversation.
You know what though? Last year everyone thought it was a wide open year and then the Academy ticked off the expected winners as if they cheated off each other’s ballots. I officially gave up thinking they’ll ever think for themselves after that. Once the consensus gets rolling they won’t go off course.
Maybe I’m a little bit slow or going by the old rules or something but I don’t see how GONE GIRL isn’t an “Oscar movie”. Yes there are those in the Academy who are delicate and I’ve already brought up “that scene” as a potential problem for those folks. But otherwise, it’s classic noir. It’s not my favorite movie of the year and I won’t be rooting for it but it’s not undeserving. Maybe it’s because I started paying attention to the Oscar race the year BRAVEHEART won. All the nominees were popular that year. Maybe it’s because Film Noir is one of my favorite genres, after Sci-Fi/Fantasy and Musicals, but it’s a film of quality. I love Christopher Nolan’s films. This year I’m rooting for INTERSTELLAR all the way. But I’d be happy with a split. INTERSTELLAR for BP and David Fincher for BD. What impressed me most about GG was the direction. Will that happen? Probably not. But is it impossible? Not if the Academy has any of the DNA that it used to. Maybe they don’t. But dismissing anything right now is goofy.
Interesting read. I have always thought the box office should be considered during the season.
I must point out the following though:
The Social Network – $97 million and The King’s Speech – $138 million.
The Hurt Locker – $17 million and Avatar – $2 billion.
PS – Really hope Coon gets in. Pike is a definite. I am also pretty certain that Fincher will not be in the five, regardless of how we feel about the film.
Gone Girl seems like an Oscar movie to me. A-list pedigree director and actor, breakout performance from previously unheralded actress, great reviews, huge box office and the most talked about film of the year so far. Will it win best picture? Who knows? But I’m guessing it will have a minimum of four major nominations( picture, director, actress and screenplay).
I’d add that what I find really interesting about Gone Girl’s situation come award time is that it feels like one of those films, Eyes Wide Shut being a great example, that need to be lived with a few years before folk come round to it’s singularity, but the kick here is that it’s hit the box office jack pot immediately, everything about the film is unpredictable.
BOYHOOD is getting Six (6) Nominations:
Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing.
They’re locked. See you nominations morning.
Yes, it’s true that The Departed also won with only 5 nominations, but it was not in the midst of a juggernaut contender. The leader was Dreamgirls with 8 and Babel with 7. This year Interstellar and Birdman will likely both be double digit contenders. So that’s why I say a feat that hasn’t happened since Annie Hall won. With Boyhood being such a minimalistic film I don’t propose any more than Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. Maybe an acting nomination but that’s a big if…
I think Gone Girl is a fascinating work, it’s so provocative that people can come at it from various points of view, but my experience of it was as a strange and troubling drive, which just wouldn’t leave me be. It played out a yarn on the surface but was so Off so much of the time that it opened up these huge chasms of discomfort. I don’t think I can remember a big Hollywood commercial experience that was quite as contradictory & surreal, I go with Richard Kelley that Eyes Wide Shut is a bedfellow, but that didn’t screw as much with our Cinematic expectations and familiarities. Will it be nominated? I don’t know, it’s not an easy ride, and felt to me like it was subverting itself, but David Thomson, who I admire as maybe our best (& most cynical) critic, failed to see that quality in it and read the Off as just plain poor, so there’s a chance the brilliant disruption at work might be missed.
Anybody saying Rosamund Pike is not in the best actress race is out of their mind and totally Prejudice.I have seen GG twice now and it is easily the best film this year.She gave A totally mind blowing performance.Her performance is easily the best female performance this decade whether you like it or not.She acted circles round Ben Affleck even though he was great,she was that amazing.She gave the kind of performance that made you seat up from your chair and realise how stunning she was.Every scene she was in ,she owned ,every expression,her presence on film is amazing.Julian Moore is a great actress ,But Rosamund Pike was on different league in that film.Its not about if the character is likeable its about the performance.
Yeah, I was tooling around with potential noms for all the big players and, really, Boyhood is not going to be far behind ANY of the big hitters. I dont see this as a year where we have a 12-13+ nomination tally for anyone (a la Benjamin Button or a Lincoln or a Return of the King).
Boyhood, I already said in a prior post, could see 5-7 noms.
Imitation Game, 7-8 noms or so, mayyyybe (pic, dir, actor, sactrs, writ, edit, prod, score).
Birdman, 7 or 8, mayyyybe 9 if it hits big (pic, dir, actor, sactor, sactrs, writ, edit, cin).
Interstellar, 6-8 (but it could be FAR less and maybe not be nommed for Picture).
Gone Girl, 5-7? (Pic, dir, actress, writ, edit, sound, score, IF its nommed for Picture).
Selma, 6-7 tops.
Theory of Everything, 5 or so.
Into the Woods, 5-7 (pic, actress, sactrs, prod des, costumes, makeup, sound’ IF it gets in Picture).
Unbroken … The big wild card. Could be a smash, could be a dud. Either way, I still dont see more tha! 7-9 at absolute most. Thats a best case scenario.
So my point is, if Boyhood gets 5 or 6 noms, nothing else will have much more (6-8) etc. Its not that type of year, I believe.
I am still much too exhilarated by INTERSTELLAR just a short time after seeing it to be too ecstatic about the award possibilities of GONE GIRL, which is still a film I do like, and one which may sneak onto my year-end ten-best list. Like most here, who don’t have access to studio screenings I have not yet seen SELMA, INHERENT VICE nor INTO THE WOODS for that matter. Nor Mike Leigh’s MR. TURNER. But all of that will be remedied very soon of course.
Right now, with six weeks left to the year it is very close between BOYHOOD and INTERSTELLAR as film of the year.
I’d like to add that I saw FOXCATCHER last night and was completely and thoroughly underwhelmed, and that’s an understatement. If I give this film 2 stars out of 5 I am being generous. A major listless bore that overstayed its welcome after about 40 minutes. I liked the idea of Vanessa Redgrave as Du Pont’s mother, but she was barely in the film. Imagine for moths at this site and so many other sites this resounding DUD was being mentioned for serious Oscar nods, even Best Picture. The film has about as much style as a cinder block half buried in the back yard.
“You may be right DANNY, but if you are then Boyhood will presumably pull off a nearly unprecedented feat which hasn’t last happened since Annie Hall (with only 5 nominations) beat Star Wars (10) in 1978! That is if Boyhood doesn’t receive more than 5 nominations, which I don’t see why it would, but the Academy has been known to make strange category choices from time to time and throw extra nods at the front-runners…”
The Departed also received only five nominations and still won BP. But also, this whole “how will Boyhood win with so few nominations” scenario doesn’t really hold water this year since we don’t have a movie that’s going to break into double digit nominations, unless Unbroken happens in a huge way, which I kind of doubt. (Interstellar will be lucky to match the eight nods that Inception received.) In short, it’s going to probably be a year where the movie that is the nomination leader will have a relatively small number, maybe eight or so. If that’s the case, and Boyhood lands the six nominations it’s currently predicted for–BP/director/original screenplay/supporting actress/supporting actor and editing–it’s nomination tally isn’t going to be that far off from the leader, and with nominations in so many major categories, Boyhood could definitely be in the hunt for the win.
And by the way, Annie Hall with five nominations didn’t just beat Star Wars with ten nominations. It also beat Julia and The Turning Point, both with eleven nominations.
Having said that, I also believe that films like The Imitation Game, Selma, and perhaps Unbroken (if great) will challenge Boyhood for the win with AMPAS. My favorite film of the year this far is Birdman.
People keep mentioning Annie Hall winning with ONLY 5 nominations when discussing Boyhood’s potential tally. Um, The Departed, people. 5 noms
Also, I think Boyhood has a decent shot at 5 or more noms, for sure.
PICTURE, DIRECTOR, S.ACTRESS, S.ACTOR, WRITING, EDITING, SONG. (7)
So yeah, I see anywhere from 5-7 noms unless it disappoints; which doesnt seem too likely at this point.
I wish Carrie Coon was a bigger part of the discussion. I’m biased, but she was the best part of The Leftovers, and right there with Pike in GG, IMO.
The People vs. the Critics?
No doubt, I stand with the Critics. The more you follow the people, the more you low your standards. People rule the box office, don’t let them rule the awards. Balance is all I’m asking for.
It appears that the only comments on this site that deny Gone Girl’s potential at securing even a single nomination all come from people who loathed the film. Funny that. After all, they’d need to – the evidence is there in spades that it has everything it needs to make it in a big way with voters. I’m even considering the chance of it winning, though Selma looks like a pretty compelling proposition for that now.
Btw, I haven’t been getting Boyhood since I saw it, and that’s nothing to do with whether or not I enjoyed it (I did). Just that it does not strike me as the kind of film that might connect with enough Academy members. In what world are those silver spoon-fed, culturally isolated baby boomers gonna identify with any of the characters in Boyhood? And, objectivity aside, that identification seems to be the key toward truly loving that film. Wonder why its Metascore is so high? Check out the demographic at MC – Boyhood could hardly be more up their alley.
Now compare it to The Imitation Game, a film which I also thought hadn’t much of a shot at winning Best Picture when I saw it. But it struck up the same emotion that I felt as I watched Argo in that sense, that it was probably gonna win regardless, that they might be able to spin a narrative around it that could easily propel it to victory (it’s the Weinsteins, so duh). That’s worked for recent tough sells like The Hurt Locker and 12 Years a Slave. Paramount could do the same with Selma, now that it looks like they’ll ease off on both Interstellar and The Gambler.
Re; Mr. Turner following a similar trajectory to Moonrise Kingdom and Inside Llewyn Davis – I mean, plz. In what world? The only Mike Leigh film not to receive an Oscar nomination in the last 20 years was All or Nothing, which is bleak bleak bleak, and they richly recompensed by serving three big ones up for Vera Drake. Mr. Turner could crack the tech categories, like Topsy-Turvy, and the main ones, like Secrets & Lies, and swiftly walk out of this thing as Mike Leigh’s most Oscar-nominated film to date. They adore him.
i can live with Pike being nominated. But Fincher and Picture, oh my, it might happen, but i’ll pretend it didn’t happen. The movie is far from being perfect.
Using the box office numbers to boost Gone Girl is a bit misleading given that a) it’s been out for a couple of months now, and b) the film’s release strategy was completely different than those other contenders, save Interstellar. As others have pointed out, GG was a big-studio production with A-list stars, an A-list director and based on a huge bestseller….of course it’s going to have a much bigger box office take than smaller pictures like Birdman or Boyhood.
Don’t confuse box office numbers with being ‘beloved’ by audiences. Amazing Spider-Man 2, Transformers 4, Divergent, the Ninja Turtles remake…all of these films made $200 million this year and I don’t know one person who enjoyed any of them.
Re: A Robinson and “no matter what other movies I like, I’d prefer to see Gone Girl win Best Picture. Why? Because David Fincher is my favorite director right now, possibly of all-time. He’s made some classics, been nominated for Best Picture twice, and was robbed, twice. He should have been nominated a few more times as well.”
I’m not a fan of this kind of thinking. “Correcting” past Oscar snubs just ends up creating more Oscar snubs in the future. Fincher, imo, should have won BD for Social Network but what happened in 2010 doesn’t mean that he should get an award over more deserving candidates like Linklater, Innaritu or perhaps one of the directors of the unseen films yet to come.
“Nominated for Best Picture, and should have won:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button > Slumdog Millionaire”
Benjamin Button was one of the worst BP nominees of the last 20 years. Slumdog was a worthy winner though it best one of the worst Best Picture fields in recent memory — one decent historical drama (The Reader), two average biopics (Milk, Frost/Nixon), one overwrought melodrama (Button)
“The Social Network >>> The King’s Speech”
I’ll agree with you on TSN. I like King’s Speech better than most and it wasn’t a bad Best Picture choice, yet still, I personally felt there were four better movies amongst the Picture nominees alone, and that’s not even counting other favourites of mine from 2010 like Another Year, Scott Pilgrim or Exit Through The Gift Shop.
“Not nominated for Best Picture, but should have:
Se7en >> Braveheart”
No argument here.
“Fight Club > American Beauty”
I have my issues with American Beauty, yet Fight Club is completely overrated in my opinion. Of all the great movies from 1999 that didn’t get nominated for Best Picture, Fight Club was definitely not one of them.
“Zodiac”
Never seen it, so can’t really comment.
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo > The Artist”
lol, no. Put it this way, Fincher’s version of TGWTDT didn’t even beat the Swedish version of the same novel.
Quite frankly I don’t see Boyhood getting more than 4 nominations, which to win would then be something not done since the 20’s and 30’s when there were less categories to begin with…
You may be right DANNY, but if you are then Boyhood will presumably pull off a nearly unprecedented feat which hasn’t last happened since Annie Hall (with only 5 nominations) beat Star Wars (10) in 1978! That is if Boyhood doesn’t receive more than 5 nominations, which I don’t see why it would, but the Academy has been known to make strange category choices from time to time and throw extra nods at the front-runners…
It’s going to be Boyhood. And the great thing is, it should be Boyhood. This will be one of the years we all remember happily. Only big categories I really see up for grabs at this point are cinematographer, adapted screenplay, and (maybe) actress.
Also, for those who think Interstellar isn’t a Best Picture contender, well then I guess Imitation Game and Theory of Everything aren’t either as both have lower Metascores than Interstellar. It should also be noted that Interstellar has the exact same Metascore as Inception, which was arguably runner-up to The King’s Speech in the 2011 Oscars tying for the most awards.
The the title being the people vs the critics I was expecting to see RT, MC, BFCA scores compared to say IMDB and Letterbox’d, not just box office numbers. Obviously Gone Girl has an edge there as it’s been out over a month. Well I’ll go ahead and post the information that you didn’t…
BFCA
Boyhood – 96
Whiplash – 93
Birdman – 91
Gone Girl – 90
Grand Budapest – 87
Interstellar – 80
ROTTEN TOMATOES
Boyhood – 99% (Average Rating: 9.4/10)
Whiplash – 97% (8.6)
Birdman – 94% (8.6)
Grand Budapest – 92% (8.4/10)
Gone Girl – 88% (8/10)
Interstellar – 75% (7.1)
METACRITIC
Boyhood – 100
Birdman – 89
Whiplash – 87
Grand Budapest – 88
Gone Girl – 79
Interstellar – 74
IMDB
Interstellar – 8.8 (#11 on the Top 250)
Boyhood- 8.4 (#66 of Top 250)
Gone Girl – 8.3 (#85 of Top 250)
The Grand Budapest Hotel – 8.1 (#181 of Top 250)
These are the only 4 Oscar contenders that are currently on the Top 250 list. There are 2 other films on the list from this year and they are Guardians of The Galaxy and X-Men: Days of Future Past. Whiplash and Birdman have scores of 8.7 and 8.8, respectively but not enough votes yet to place on the Top 250 list.
LETTERBOX’D
Boyhood – 8.8 (ranked #1 for 2014)
Whiplash – 8.6 ( #2 )
Grand Budapest – 8.2 ( #3 )
Gone Girl – 8.2 ( #4 )
Birdman – 8.1 ( #8 )
Interstellar – 7.9 ( #12 )
I am in complete agreement with Sasha on Gone Girl, but I truly believe the older, white, conservative Academy members will construct the Best Picture race as a showdown between The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. These are two “safe” movies about heroes, while the more ambitious films of this year celebrate anti-heroes or outright villians, Yes, I doubt this year we will have the contentious battle over Best Picture we had last year between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity.
@RA S.- I agree. It’s a bit of a stretch for a nom considering how tight that particular race is but he did great work in Interstellar.
I just want McCounaghey to get a best actor nomination although it seems unlikely. However, Keaton is so winning best actor, what a showy performance.
Pike will make it in simply because there are so few sure fire potential nominees this year for the category
@Evan. What are you thoughts on Interstellar? I’ve seen it twice now and it’s my favorite film of the year. It’s so damn moving and thrilling I don’t think any other film can top it this year. I hope it gets love come Oscar time. I’m sure below the line techs are in the bag atleast for a nomination but a BP nom and this is probably reaching but Actress and Supp. Actress for Hathaway and Chastain would make me very happy. It’s wishful thinking on my part for Hathaway to get in but damnit I loved her in it.
@Free. (I’ll never, ever understand how she lost for Boogie Nights)- Right! I agree. It’s one of the most egregious snubs, for me atleast. I really hope she takes the statue this year. Fingers crossed.
I think Gone Girl is in. I’d venture to say that it’s made bigger pop culture waves than any of its BP contenders… thus far. (Interstellar would come close.) And I’m not just talking about box office– I hear more people talking about it than any other movie of the year.
I do not, however, think that Fincher is in. He’s on the bubble, but I think Gonzalez Inarritu, Linklater, DuVernay, and probably Tyldum (with a Weinstein push) are ahead of him with Nolan challenging him for the fifth spot and Jolie waiting in the wings.
@Len. If you read my comment you would have seen I said Rosamund Pike is a sure fire lock for a nom. I didn’t say she was a frontrunner, that title belongs to Julianne Moore. She’s overdue for an Oscar & this is her year. As for your lineup, you gotta be crazy to think Ben Affleck did a better job than Rosamund Pike. He was good but that’s it, he basically played a version of himself. Rosamund Pike was a revelation, she may have seemed a bit clinical but I think that just elevated her performance from disturbed housewife to a quiet insanity. It was pretty unsettling and was stuck in my head for weeks. Kim Dickens and Carrie Coon were both on par for me. They were great and my favorite characters in that film and the book but my vote goes to Carrie Coon but if Kim Dickens gets in I’ll be happy. One more thing I dont see why Coon having most of her scenes with Affkeck affect her chances, there’s a reason it’s called supporting actress. He won’t get in sure, but she supported the hell out of him so don’t be shocked if she does.
Personally, I think Gone Girl’s chances of getting on the Best Picture list are pretty healthy. Winning? Eh…at this point, I really have no idea what’s going to win. None. I actually might predict Selma, assuming the last-minute release doesn’t backfire. I also really, really hope there’s room for Kim Dickens in Supporting Actress. It’s hard to explain why her work was so good, she just felt…completely real.
If I were to pick my winners right now:
Picture: Dear White People
Director: Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Actor: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Actress: Charlotte Gainsbourg (Nymphomaniac) – Pike is my #2
Supporting Actor: Edward Norton (Birdman)
Supporting Actress: Emma Stone (Birdman)
Original Screenplay: Dear White People
Adapted Screenplay: The Dance of Reality – GG is a close #2
Cinematography: Birdman
Editing: Gone Girl
Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Costume Design: The Immigrant
Makeup: Guardians of the Galaxy
Original Score: Under the Skin
Original Song: “I Love You All” (Frank)
Sound Mixing: Interstellar
Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes/Interstellar (YOU try choosing)
Sound Effects: Interstellar
I’m not predicting Pike either…
All I know is that I just watched Birdman and found it to be the most pretentious film since Tree of Life. Everything about it, from the title (get it, parentheses) to the score to the one shot gimmick. He’ll even the credits, popping up a couple letters at a time, felt like artistic wankery. The acting was pretty good, but I didn’t care about anyone. Then you have the comet and jellyfish shots…what a load of bollucks. I wonder what the likes of Joss Whedon and Chris Nolan think of the film and what it has to say about comic book movies.
“an Oscar movie only means it’s one of the best films of the year”
If only.
“Still, this feels like one of the most wide open and confusing Oscar races in memory.”
I’m pretty sure the exact same thing was said about 2012. Once the precursors start rolling in, that’ll change pretty quickly. Kinda wish there was just ONE awards venue for the entire year. Would definitely keep the interest level up.
Finally saw Gone Girl today, and I’m totally fine with this or Birdman winning BP (though Inarritu seems more deserving for Director, imo). Anxious to see what Julianne Moore does in Still Alice. Hope she finally wins (I’ll never, ever understand how she lost for Boogie Nights), but I gotta say, Rosamund Pike killed that shit. Literally.
I’m definitely with Sasha on Gone Girl. Few films get into my head, and I couldn’t let go of Gone Girl. As an Alfred Hitchcock fan, it was great to see a film that aspired to the same unpredictable, thrilling twisted heights, and it succeeded, and has made a star of Rosamund Pike. Gone Girlt is definitely an Oscar contender.
Okay, so here is the up-to-date list of what’s been seen, and when it first made an impact on it’s Oscar chances. Only 4 left “officially” unseen.
Whiplash – January 16, 2014 (Sundance FF)
Boyhood – January 19, 2014 (Sundance FF)
The Grand Budapest Hotel – March 7, 2014
Foxcatcher – May 19, 2014 (Cannes FF)
The Imitation Game – August 29, 2014 (Telluride FF)
Wild – August 29, 2014 (Telluride FF)
Birdman – August 30, 2014 (Telluride FF)
The Theory of Everything – September 7, 2014 (Toronto IFF)
Gone Girl – September 26, 2014 (New York FF)
Inherent Vice – October 4, 2014 (New York FF)
Fury – October 17, 2014
Interstellar – October 26, 2014 (Premiere)
A Most Violent Year – November 6, 2014 (AFI Fest)
American Sniper – November 11, 2014 (AFI Fest)
Selma – November 11, 2014 (AFI Fest)
—
Big Eyes
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Question: If it’s more important to be seen earlier and earlier these days, what does that mean for the Oscar chances for Into the Woods and Unbroken, which appear to be waiting until their theatrical releases.?
@nixxx92 Rosamund Pike is not a best actress frontrunner like Cate Blanchett was. Besides Hawkins played Blanchett’s sister and was after her the best in show. Whereas Coon is like #4. She had most of her scenes with Affleck and he is not getting nominated so…
For me the best performances in GG were:
1) Ben Affleck
2) Rosamund Pike
3) Kim Dickens
4) Carrie Coon
Gone Girl has commercial appeal, but no one should overlook it’s “on paper” Oscar-ness. Fincher, Affleck, popular novel, breakout actress, dark and thrilling subject matter, box office… you don’t have to like it, but saying it doesn’t have a place in this race is just a little short sighted.
I really hope Carrie Coon gets through. I think she has a chance, kind of like how Sally Hawkins got in last year. Rosamund Pike will deffinately get in though. I don’t think she has a chance of winning but a nomination seems locked. A SAG seems like a safe bet as well Sasha, I totally agree it had one of, if not thee best ensemble of the year.
Just a reminder of how the last 3 years of the guilds went / stacked up:
2013:
DGA
*Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
PGA
*12 Years a Slave
*Gravity
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
SAGA
*American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
The Butler
12 Years a Slave – 3 n / 1 w
American Hustle – 3 n / 1 w
Gravity – 2 n / 2 w
Captain Phillips – 2 n / 0 w
Dallas Buyers Club – 2 n / 0 w
The Wolf of Wall Street – 2 n / 0 w
August: Osage County – 1 n / 0 w
Blue Jasmine – 1 n / 0 w
Her – 1 n / 0 w
Nebraska – 1 n / 0 w
Saving Mr. Banks – 1 n / 0 w
The Butler – 1 n / 0 w
—————
2012:
DGA
*Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
PGA
*Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
SAGA
*Argo
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Argo – 3 n / 3 w
Les Misérables – 3 n / 0 w
Lincoln – 3 n / 0 w
Life of Pi – 2 n / 0 w
Silver Linings Playbook – 2 n / 0 w
Zero Dark Thirty – 2 n / 0 w
Beasts of the Southern Wild – 1 n / 0 w
Django Unchained – 1 n / 0 w
Moonrise Kingdom – 1 n / 0 w
Skyfall – 1 n / 0 w
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – 1 n / 0 w
—————
2011:
DGA
*The Artist
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
PGA
*The Artist
Bridesmaids
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
The Ides of March
War Horse
SAGA
*The Help
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
The Descendants
The Artist – 3 n / 2 w
Midnight in Paris – 3 n / 0 w
The Descendants – 3 n / 0 w
The Help – 2 n / 1 w
Bridesmaids – 2 n / 0 w
Hugo – 2 n / 0 w
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – 2 n / 0 w
Moneyball – 1 n / 0 w
The Ides of March – 1 n / 0 w
War Horse – 1 n / 0 w
—
What can we learn from 2011? Bridesmaids was in Best Picture contention. Huh!
I always like your insightful reviews and articles, Sasha, but I have to disagree about Gone Girl too. Interesting, but not particularly convincing and has little resonance to me, and to most people I know. I didn’t read the book, but friends who did felt it diminished her character. I don’t see an Oscar nomination for Pike. But hopefully for the score and Coon.
I didn’t read the book, but friends who did felt it diminished her character. I don’t see an Oscar nomination for Pike. But hopefully for the score and Coon.
I did read the book and it didn’t diminish her character. It was an ADAPTATION of her character. Book – movie. Two different things. That is the genius of Gone Girl, the Fincher interpretation which isn’t as easily accessible as the book was. And Pike is in.
Now, I’ve stopped predicting the Oscar nominations for the time being, but I will at least try tackle how I think the 3 guilds will nominated. I won’t predict winners, like I did a few months ago, but….
(These are for Best Picture, of course)
DGA
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
alt. Whiplash
PGA
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Selma
SAG
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
I didn’t include Into the Woods and Unbroken since they haven’t been screened yet.
I’m pretty sure I’ve expressed this all year, but no matter what other movies I like, I’d prefer to see Gone Girl win Best Picture.
Why? Because David Fincher is my favorite director right now, possibly of all-time. He’s made some classics, been nominated for Best Picture twice, and was robbed, twice. He should have been nominated a few more times as well. Here’s how it looks:
Nominated for Best Picture, and should have won:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button > Slumdog Millionaire
The Social Network >>> The King’s Speech
Not nominated for Best Picture, but should have:
Se7en >> Braveheart
Fight Club > American Beauty
Zodiac
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo > The Artist
> better than
>> way better than
>>> way, way better than
> / = better than or at least equal to
I’m not in the Gone Girl bandwagon. It just wasn’t as good as so many other movies you keep failing to mention. If I get into a dark horse bandwagon this year so far it would be for NIGHTCRAWLER.
If box office had something to do with awards, we don’t need vote people and critics.We just need to go to boxofficemojo.com.
If box office have a say the winners would be stupid teen movies or kids movies.
Obviously, awards have nothing to do with box office.
Gone Girl is a commercial picture. It’s not an awards picture. And just a good one, not great.
If box office had something to do with awards
That box office stopped mattering is a recent thing. It still matters if a movie fails to make back what it costs and yeah, if you’re talking about an adult film that isn’t a sequel or animated film it matters quite a bit and in fact made all the difference with Life of Pi last year.
Gone Girl is a commercial picture. It’s not an awards picture.
Bullshit. Same could be said about Argo, The Departed, etc. What would you call The Blind Side? The Help? Inception? I really hate lazy thinking.
I personally find it hard to comprehend that Interstellar will get anywhere near BP/Director noms.
Yeah, me too.
I can totally see AMPAS going with Mike Leigh, though. Wouldn’t be surprising at all. Sasha is quite right.
“Gone Girl is easily Fincher’s worst movie (even worse than Alien 3), so relax, it’s not happening. No Best Pic, no director, no screenplay, no acting, no score, no editing, nada, zilch, zero. Mark my words.”
Oh, we will. Be prepared to eat crow. If Rosamund Pike isn’t nominated for Best Actress, I’ll eat a real crow, live exclusively on AD!
I personally find it hard to comprehend that Interstellar will get anywhere near BP/Director noms.
By the way, I finally saw Mr. Turner last night, and to me it’s definitely a Moonrise Kingdom/Inside Llewyn Davis type. Some (including myself) will adore it, but it will likely miss out narrowly.
Gone Girl is easily Fincher’s worst movie (even worse than Alien 3), so relax, it’s not happening. No Best Pic, no director, no screenplay, no acting, no score, no editing, nada, zilch, zero. Mark my words.
Gone Girl is easily Fincher’s worst movie (even worse than Alien 3), so relax, it’s not happening. No Best Pic, no director, no screenplay, no acting, no score, no editing, nada, zilch, zero. Mark my words.
Here are all of this person Zach’s comments on AwardsDaily – each one contains an insult:
“Sasha, you’re delusional. American Hustle was the biggest piece of garbage I’ve seen in years, and it doesn’t stand a chance. This site has jumped the shark.”
“A 7-year-old girl was raped and you’re wondering if Amy Adams will upset Cate Blanchett? Jesus fucking Christ.
Poor Cate? You are insane.”
“Earth to Sasha: Gone Girl sucked, and it won’t be nominated for Best Picture. Get a grip.”
So what we have here is an AwardsDaily troll, someone who hates me for whatever reason – perhaps he’s an ex-forum member? So he just comes here to take a greasy shit on my lawn. How pleasant!
I’m glad to hear that Selma is one of your favorites. From the trailer alone it looks incredible. Not merely a historical re-telling but something more – perhaps it’s the social justicey world we live in now, or my own context as a 20-something gay guy growing up alongside the modern wave of lgbt activism – but watching scenes from Selma somehow transport me to that time, feeling the anger, guilt, disgust and fascination with the civil rights era and how America treated people.
I’m hoping it gets enough buzz to at least turn a nice profit, though some Oscar nods would be amazing too.
ScottD – Selma should do very well in the Oscar race. It is a stirring, moving film that is really hard to shake. It is really the exact kind of movie that consensus voters respond to.