The Hollywood Film Awards launched the awards race for the muggles – that is, it seems like it might be the beginning of awards season. But really, it was the last gasp of festival season. Award season starts officially in roughly two weeks. It is impossible to really know where the films are lining up. As Mark Harris reminds us, what is mostly going on right now is a conversation between a bunch of people who don’t vote on awards trying to predict how people who do vote on awards will vote. Or, as Kris Tapley said more succinctly, it’s like farting in a room and then talking about what it smells like. That’s the thing – we all have our rankings and our own narratives of how the race might go but in truth, nothing really happens until the major awards begin to announce.
The first out of the gate is the New York Film Critics Circle Awards (December 1), made recently famous by their decision to push their awards to be earlier than the National Board of Review, the group that traditionally announced first. Since the NYFCC did that, they’ve picked winners that hadn’t been widely seen yet, even though they were being predicted by pundits based on the usual things: pedigree, subject matter, etc. Zero Dark Thirty in 2012 and American Hustle last year were their two big late entry surprise picks. The only film left to be seen right now are Unbroken and Into the Woods. The NYFCC hat trick would then have to be one of those films and if either one wins it will be huge.
A day later, the National Board of Review announces (December 2). They list a Best Picture and then a top ten, plus acting categories. Both the National Board of Review and the NYFCC have a great track record for launching a film into the Best Picture race. It lends prestige to have that little award on your movie ad. No one really knows the difference, nor cares, whether the critics who vote are “legit” or not. The NBR has been picking respectable titles for years alongside the NYFCC.
The National Board of Review started, believe it or not, in 1927, presumably to help influence the newly formed Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences awards. But it wasn’t until 1932 that they started giving out a winner.
A quick chart:
But did anything change after the AFI Fest? And is the consensus starting to take shape anyway, without any awards having been announced? There is a rough draft of the consensus but the shape won’t take place until we start seeing how people plan to vote on Best Picture of the Year.
There are a few things we do know, however.
1) We have our Best Actress frontrunner in Julianne Moore. She was already way, way overdue – is well liked and proved with her appearance at the Hollywood Film Awards that she plans to show up. She has, at this time, no major competition. Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon could be the only competitors but Moore needed the chance to allow voters to award her and this is it. Kudos to Greg Ellwood at Hitfix for calling it first.
2) Ava DuVernay’s Selma is the only major game-changer out of the AFI fest. There are films that will have some impact, like A Most Violent Year, The Gambler and American Sniper but the one everyone was talking about as the only film that can give heat to the frontrunners to win is Selma. It is the only film so far of the late entries that has the stuff to win. If it catches fire with any early awards it will all be over but the shouting. The NBR has a soft spot for Eastwood and indeed a win for American Sniper there would catapult it into the race.
3) Patricia Arquette is the strongest supporting actress contender so far. The reason? She plays basically a leading role and gives one of the few fully realized performances in that category. It’s unfortunate that the majority of male filmmakers who get a shot at the big time continually feel compelled to write such thin female supporting characters. It hurts the film overall and simply can’t withstand the test of time as the best films have the best characters — period. Once again, a good supporting female character is not one who exists merely to excite, prop up or inspire the male protagonist. They have their own character arc. But linklater is way too evolved to fall into those traps and has repeatedly delivered brilliant female characters. Also, Arquette would never have played any part that thin. She isn’t that desperate. Hollywood still doesn’t know what to do with her but so far she’s chosen interesting roles even when case in supporting parts. Ditto David Fincher who is way too smart to deliver pointless empty female leads or supporting. Gone Girl is full of great female characters with their own arcs. Leads made supporting tend to win because there is so much more information there. Those are the hardest to compete against, like Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained. The only possible competition she has is Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, which would be both for the performance and for her stellar career. Arquette, though, has the advantage of being in what is considered right now the Best Picture frontrunner. Chastain is having another one of those years where she delivers one great performance after another, which makes it harder for a consensus to build around any one performance. She will once again compete against herself with A Most Violent Year and Interstellar.
4) Best Actor is still wide open. Before AFI it was two actor race between Michael Keaton and Benedict Cumberbatch being threatened by the charming and heartbreaking Eddie Redmayne. Then along comes David Oyelowo at Martin Luther King, Jr. and THAT performance could be the surprise winner in the category. Gun to my head right now I’d say Keaton gets it for two reasons. 1) he’s such a beloved vet, and 2) Birdman will win the actors and they are the biggest voting branch in the Academy. Before I saw Selma I thought Eddie Redmayne had it in the bag. Then I thought Oyelowo had it. But now I have no idea. I suspect the wins could be all over the place.
5) JK Simmons appears to have Supporting Actor lined up as he brings both a great performance and major veteran status to the game. Edward Norton is probably his biggest challenger in Birdman. Josh Brolin steals the show in Inherent Vice – one of the best performances of the year but it’s hard to know if anyone is paying any attention to that film.
6) Boyhood doesn’t have many serious challengers yet for Best Picture. Birdman and The Imitation Game continue to present themselves as potential winners. Selma has emerged, at this time, as a formidable contender. But if the major critics do not support the film it will not be. Ava DuVernay’s inclusion makes history — the first black woman to be nominated for Best Director and that is significant. But it has passion and gravitas and historical importance, not to mention a history making black woman at the helm. Finally, Gone Girl’s box office makes it harder and harder to ignore. Then again, Fincher notoriously does not “kiss babies,” which contradicts the silly notion that he “wants and Oscar.” He isn’t going to suck up for one and that could mean the difference. The win for Gone Girl is the money and Gillian Flynn’s history making adaptation. That would likely be your five if there were five. But since there are more than five, you can extend the strongest contenders to include The Theory of Everything and Whiplash. That’s seven. Interstellar makes it eight and if you don’t count Unbroken or Into the Woods that leaves you with one slot open. There are plenty of contenders that might take it, from Mr. Turner to American Sniper to A Most Violent Year…
7) There are only two films left to be seen and one is already cursed with too high expectations. Unbroken and Into the Woods will be seen in the next two weeks. But many pundits have proclaimed Unbroken the winner without a full screening and that, my friends, is always a huge mistake. I’ve never seen it pan out. In 16 years. But the game must be played and so it marches on. They could both turn out to be great but they’re coming in under the wire. Good thing they are backed by hardcore star power. Angelina Jolie for Unbroken and Meryl Streep for Into the Woods ensures people will turn out for screenings for a glimpse of them and perhaps watch their movies.
8) If nothing else, Interstellar wins Visual Effects walking in the door.
9) If Alejandro G. Inarritu wins this year, that will make it the fifth consecutive year that a non-American has won Best Director for the first time in Oscar history (Ang Lee is a naturalized American citizen, though he considers himself Taiwanese, and was born there):
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Though Americans dominate the list of contenders, the winning film and director right now include one American*, Richard Linklater.
Frontrunners:
Richard Linklater, Boyhood*
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Morton Tyldum, The Imitation Game
James Marsh, The Theory of Everything
David Fincher, Gone Girl*
Ava DuVernay, Selma*
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash*
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher*
And the dark horse contenders:
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper*
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year*
Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman*
And soon to come:
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken*
Rob Marshall, Into the Woods*
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
Jean-Marc Vallee, Wild
Americans, it seems, are showing up with great films but they haven’t been in the winner’s circle since 2009. Make of that what you will.
10) Nobody knows anything. Sure, we think we know. But we don’t. We can look back on this time and laugh about how wrong we got it but we don’t learn our lessons. Films are still shelved and excluded from the conversation as we continue to second what “they” will do. The pile gets smaller and all the while we’ve kind of lost sight of the one thing that has always been true about films: they’re made for audiences.
We can only take our best guess, which is slightly more educated from experience alone than yours. It should all be taken with a huge grain of salt and more people should think outside the tiny little box we’ve created. We call it a weak year for film? I’d say it’s a weak year for the kinds of films that people like me focus on.
My current predictions before the race gets real, for what they’re worth:
FRONTRUNNERS
Best Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Birdman
Gone Girl
Selma
Whiplash
Mr. Turner
Interstellar
Also in the running:
Foxcatcher
American Sniper
A Most Violent Year
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Wild
The Homesman
Still to come:
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Miles Teller, Whiplash
Alt. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Also in the running:
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Mark Wahlberg, The Gambler
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Bill Murray St. Vincent
Matthew McConaughey, Interstellar
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel s
Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood
Still to come:
Jack O’Connell, Unbroken
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Also in the running:
Anne Dorval, Mommy
Shailene Woodley, The Fault in our Stars
Jessica Chastain, Eleanor Rigby
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Juliet Binoche, Clouds of Sils Maria
Still to come:
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Supporting Actor
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Also in the running:
Tyler Perry, Gone Girl
Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
Evan Bird, Maps to the Stars
John Cusack, Maps to the Stars
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Laura Dern Wild
Also in the running:
Jessica Lange, The Gambler
Jessica Chastain, Interstellar
Carrie Coon, Gone Girl
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Suzanne Clément, Mommy
Viola Davis, Eleanor Rigby
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
Melissa McCarthy, St. Vincent
Still to come:
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods
Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Also in the running:
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
Jean-Marc Vallee, Wild
Still to come:
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Rob Marshall, Into the Woods
Original Screenplay
Alejandro Inarritu et al, Birdman
Paul Webb, Selma
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Also in the running:
E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
Christopher and Jonathan Nolan, Interstellar
Clouds of Sils Maria, Olivier Assayas
Adapted Screenplay
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Anthony McCarten, The Thoery of Everything
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Tommy Lee Jones, Kieran Fitzgerald, The Homesman
Nick Hornby, Wild
Also in the running:
Jon Stewart, Rosewater
RIchard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland, Still Alice
Still to come:
Coens et al., Unbroken
Editing
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Also in the running:
Interstellar
A Most Violent Year
Foxcatcher
Cinematography
Interstellar
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Gone Girl
Grand Budapest Hotel
Also in the Running:
Selma
A Most Violent Year
The Theory of Everything
Wild
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Still to come:
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Production Design
Interstellar
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Selma
In the running:
The Theory of Everything
Birdman
Still to come:
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Sound Mixing
Interstellar
Whiplash
Get on Up
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
American Sniper
In the running:
Guardians of the Galaxy
Transformers 4
Edge of Tomorrow
X-Men
Still to come:
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Sound Editing
Interstellar
Whiplash
Birdman
Get on Up
Big Hero Six
In the running:
The Lego Movie
Transformers 4
Guardians of the Galaxy
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Edge of Tomorrow
X-Men
Still to come:
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Costume Design
Grand Budapest Hotel
Belle
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Selma
In the running:
A Most Violent Year
Get on Up
Guardians of the Galaxy
Still to come:
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Original Score
Gone Girl
Birdman
Selma
A Most Violent Year
Noah
In the running:
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Grand Budapest Hotel
Still to come:
Unbroken
Foreign Language Feature
Mommy (Canada)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Documentary Feature
Life Itself
Last Days of Vietnam
CitizenFour
Merchants of Doubt
Look of Silence
Also in the running:
The Overnighters
Seymour
Red Army
Captivated: The Trials of Pamela Smart
The Salt of the Earth
Magician: The Astonishing Life and Work of Orson Welles
Keep on Keepin’ On
Animated Feature
Princess Kaguya
The Lego Movie
Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Visual Effects
Interstellar
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Transformers 4
Godzilla
Makeup
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Mr. Turner
Still to come:
Into the Woods
Song
Mercy is (Noah)
Lost Stars (Begin Again)
Glory (Selma)
Everything Is Awesome (The Lego Movie)
Miracles (Unbroken)
Split the Difference (Boyhood)