Checking in with the Best Contenders in the Early Part of the Race

If you go by who’s been nominated for and who has won what – here is how it’s looking so far. The Gurus of Gold have also put out their Best Picture and Best Director picks for the week, before the big film critic week that’s coming up and all of the big announcements. Here we go. You ready?

Precursor list with the major and minors so far – first without Peter Travers:

	TIFF audience award	Gothams	NYFCC	NBR	Golden Satellites
Boyhood			++	*	*
Birdman		++		*	*
The Imitation Game	++			*	*
Gone Girl				*	*
A Most Violent Year				++

ALPHABETICAL
American Sniper				*
Inherent Vice				*
Fury				*
The Grand Budapest Hotel					*
Love is Strange					*
Mr. Turner					*
Nightcralwer				*
Selma					*
The Theory of Everything					*
Unbroken				*
Whiplash					*

Next, if you factor in Peter Travers:

	TIFF audience award	Gothams	NYFCC	NBR	Golden Satellites	Travers
Boyhood			++	*	*	++
Birdman		++		*	*	*
The Imitation Game	++			*	*
Gone Girl				*	*	*
A Most Violent Year				++
The Grand Budapest Hotel					*	*
Selma					*	*
Unbroken				*		*
Whiplash					*	*
American Sniper				*
Inherent Vice				*
Foxcatcher						*
Fury				*
Interstellar						*
Love is Strange					*
Mr. Turner					*
Nightcrawler				*
The Theory of Everything, Focus Features					*

And here is how the films that have opened are stacking up so far with the critics.

	Metacritc	Rotten Tomatoes	BFCA	Total	Box Office
Boyhood	100	99	96	295	24m
Whiplash	87	96	93	276	3m
Birdman	89	94	91	274	17m
The Imitation Game	91	85	91	267	579K*
The Grand Budapest Hotel	88	92	87	267	59m
Love is Strange	83	97	86	266	2m
Nightcrawler	76	95	88	259	28m
Gone Girl	79	88	90	257	161m
Foxcatcher	83	86	85	254	2m
The Theory of Everything	72	81	87	240	10m
Interstellar	74	73	80	227	149m
Fury	64	78	83	225	82m

And the ones that haven’t opened yet and still have limited information because not all of the critics have rung in.

Have not yet opened:	Metacritic	RT	BFCA	Total
Selma	98	100	93	291
Mr. Turner	95	96	77	268
A Most Violent Year	86	93	86	265
American Sniper	66	79	85	230
Inherent Vice	84	74	67	225
Unbroken	59	53	82	194

The only suspense right now in the race is whether or not David Fincher’s smash hit will be a big Best Picture player or not. I guess you could ask the same thing about several other movies out there in the mix. But smart money is on the Fincher pick as being one of the sure bets of the season. At least, that’s how I see it but I could be blinded by love – you all know how I get. Ahem.

Beyond that, the first three are solid picks from all pundits. Then you have the word of one pundit against the other. In this corner — Anne Thompson, Kris Tapley, Scott Feinberg, Mike Hogan, Thelma Adams, Thom Geier, Tariq Kahn, Jenelle Reilly Dave Karger all saying “no” to Gone Girl.

In the other corner, Yours Truly (of course), Susan Wloszczyna, Glenn Whipp, Peter Travers, Jeff Wells, Nicole Sperling, Keith Simanton, Anne Thompson (who is having it both ways – on her site she says no but on Gold Derby and Movie City News she says yes), Paul Sheehan, Steve Pond, Kevin Polowy, Tom O’Neil, Michael Musto, Mary Miliken, Scott Mantz, Matt Atchity, Mike Cidoni at Gold Derby.

And here is how it’s shaking down at Gurus of Gold:

Either way, let’s see how it all goes down after the weekend. We will continue to check in with our precursors chart as the season wears on. And on. And on.