Critics Choice Preview and Predictions (bump)

This year’s race has kind of been all over the place. The big movies that came in the fall haven’t yet turned into the massive hits people were expecting them to be. Interstellar, despite it having a complicated plot and three hours, has finally surged barely ahead of Gone Girl. It’s still hovering at the top of the box office, however, as people are slowly making their way to see it. Into the Woods will likely do some banging business for the holidays but who would have ever thought that by year’s end the Oscar race would maybe possibly include a single $100 million earner, Gone Girl. And even that film’s fate is held in the balance, knocked way down to #13 by Scott Feinberg, not even predicted at all by Dave Karger at Movie City News.  So what are we looking at here? It’s a confused jumble with some known titles clustered in the middle.

The Critics Choice awards are handed out by the Broadcast Film Critics. They used to be a lot more discerning in whom they allowed to be members — then it turned into a free-for-all where literally guys who used to be forum members at my site are now full fledged members of that association. Almost every Oscar blogger I know is a voting member — save David Poland, who opted out of voting at some point. Every other one though? Jeff Wells, Steve Pond, Anne Thompson, Nathaniel Rogers — you name it, they’re members of the BFCA.  This is the one area where I exercise the only integrity I have because I’ve never joined this group and, in fact, do not vote on any awards leading up to the Oscars. The reason I do this is because I am paid in advertising dollars by studios directly. Most of my pundit friends have editorial overseers — I do not. I started my own business and run my own business. So it’s a sticky area, I think. Some think so, others don’t – either way, however we got here, here we are.

The BFCA values their record of matching up with Oscar more than any other group. The film critics mostly pretend like they’re at the same party with Oscar voters but are embarrassed to be there. The BFCA embrace this — they even expanded their categories to allow for more celebrities to attend their telecast.  I’m really glad they no longer take the stage for a round of applause. That’s progress.

They have virtually zero impact on the Oscars except in the form of publicity. Ben Affleck got off his best joke at the BFCAs when he was “snubbed” for Best Director, saying, “I’d like to think the Academy…” It caught on like wildfire. A speech in front of a camera and an audience is always good publicity and most of the time no one considers anything else.  They aren’t quite on the level of the Golden Globes yet, in terms of eyeballs, but they’re still a televised awards show and thus, that matters. Still, it cracks me up when the muggle press covers them like they’re real critics. They ain’t. Their like the Oscar-flavored version of the People’s Choice awards — somewhere between mainstream and snooty, not unlike industry voters.

I have to admit I’ve always wondered whether they try to vote to match what they think the Academy might do, thus following the lead of prominent Oscar bloggers, or whether they vote for what they actually think is good. Could that many of them really like Nine that much? Their score would indicate no. Same goes for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. I find this contradiction to be strange. Shouldn’t their nominees match, at the very least, their highest scores? That leads me to believe that they probably do pick films they think the Academy will pick to maintain their record of matching up. But maybe many voting bodies do the same thing — maybe this is how the consensus is formed in the end: bloggers predict what movies get in, people voting pick those same movies, those movies get picked by the Academy. The classic self-fulfilling prophecy. It messes with your head, doesn’t it?

The BFCA will announce on Monday — you can take a look at their scores below, to see how they have leaned 2014 and in previous years. Somewhere as we speak several bloggers and BFCA members have the embargoed list. They already know what’s going to get nominated. I used to be one who got the list but — since I bitch about them too much I’ve been removed, I think, from that privilege.

The Critics Choice Best Picture nominees are in red. An asterisk* means the Academy also chose the movie as a Best Picture nominee.

2014
Boyhood – 96
Whiplash – 93
Birdman – 91
Guardians of the Galaxy – 91
The Imitation Game – 91
The LEGO Movie – 91
Selma – 90
Gone Girl – 90
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – 89
Captain America: The Winter Soldier – 88
Nightcrawler – 88
The Grand Budapest Hotel – 87
How to Train Your Dragon 2 – 87
Snowpiercer – 87
The Theory of Everything – 87
Wild – 87
American Sniper – 85
Foxcatcher – 85
Still Alice – 85
The Babadook – 84
Locke – 84
A Most Violent Year – 84
Only Lovers Left Alive – 84
Unbroken – 84

2013
12 Years a Slave – 94*
Short Term 12 – 94
Gravity – 93*
American Hustle – 91*
Captain Phillips – 90*
Blue Jasmine – 89
Philomena – 89*
Dallas Buyers Club – 88*
Fruitvale Station – 88
All Is Lost – 87
Her – 87*
Nebraska – 87*
Stories We Tell – 87
Before Midnight – 86
Mud – 86
Enough Said – 85
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – 85
Prisoners – 85
Rush – 85
Saving Mr. Banks – 85
Side Effects – 85
The Spectacular Now – 85
The Wolf of Wall Street – 84*
Lone Survivor – 83
Inside Llewyn Davis – 82
Upstream Color – 82
Lee Daniels’ The Butler – 81
August: Osage County – 80

2012
Argo – 94*
Zero Dark Thirty – 92*
Skyfall – 92
The Avengers – 90
Silver Linings Playbook* – 90
Lincoln – 88*
Django Unchained – 88*
Amour – 87*
Les Misérables – 87*
Life of Pi – 86*
Looper – 86
Beasts of the Southern Wild – 85*
End of Watch – 85
Arbitrage – 84
Moonrise Kingdom – 83
The Impossible – 82
Prometheus – 82
The Master – 81
Flight – 81
Hunger Games – 81
The Road – 79

2011
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – 93
The Descendants – 92*
Martha Marcy May Marlene – 92
The Artist – 91*
Drive – 91
The Ides of March – 91
Moneyball – 91*
The Help – 89*
Hugo – 87*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – 87
Beginners – 85
Midnight in Paris – 85*
My Week with Marilyn – 85
Bridesmaids – 82
War Horse – 80*
Warrior – 80
Contagion – 79
Melancholia – 78
Rampart – 78
Shame – 78
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close – 78*
The Tree of Life – 78*
We Need to Talk About Kevin – 78
The Iron Lady – 77
Cloud Atlas – 74

2010

The King’s Speech – 97*
Toy Story 3 – 97*
The Social Network – 95*
True Grit – 95*
Inception – 94*
127 Hours – 90*
The Fighter – 90*
Black Swan – 89*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – 87
The Town – 87
The Kids Are All Right – 85*
Winter’s Bone – 85*
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – 84
Secretariat – 83
Another Year – 82
The Ghost Writer – 81
Shutter Island – 81

2009

100 – Me and Orson Welles
100 – Up*
97 – Up in the Air*
95 – An Education*
93 – The Hurt Locker*
93 – Star Trek
92 – (500) Days of Summer
91 – Inglourious Basterds*
91 – Fantastic Mr Fox
89 – Avatar*
89 – Precious*
88 – Julie & Julia
87 – District 9*
86 – A Serious Man*
85 – Sherlock Holmes
85 – The Blind Side*
85 – The Messenger
85 – The Princess and the Frog
83 — Invictus
79 — Nine

I guess I will predict the BFCA Best Picture nominees this way:

Boyhood – 96
Whiplash – 93
Birdman – 91
The Imitation Game – 91
Gone Girl – 90
Selma – 90
Nightcrawler – 88
The Grand Budapest Hotel – 87
The Theory of Everything – 87
Foxcatcher – 85
Interstellar – 80

Also possible:

Wild – 87
American Sniper – 85
Unbroken – 84
Into the Woods – 79

I won’t even guess at the rest of the categories, though I’ll be interested to see how it goes.  How about you?