I’ll start by saying no, I don’t think anyone can beat Julianne Moore for her performance in Still Alice. Twice nominated at the Golden Globes (like Kate Winslet was the year she won), and a career of brilliant performances behind her, Moore seems to have this sewn up. But. Here’s the thing. Oscar has a history of rewarding first time nominees over veterans in the Best Actress category. Who can forget Annette Bening vs. Hilary Swank, for instance, or Julie Christie vs. Marion Cotillard or Sandra Bullock vs. Meryl Streep. Indeed, Christie, Streep and other vets who have lost to first timers already won Oscars (not Bening) and I would hope that, by now, Moore has paid her dues and then some. But I’m seeing some shakeup in the Best Actress race lately, like Jennifer Aniston taking a prominent role on the publicity tour (which matters).
Rosamund Pike has just won a slew of critics awards, taking Detroit, St. Louis and Kansas City. The big city New York critics denied Julianne Moore by trying to boost Marion Cotillard’s chances. Indeed, Cotillard could still get into Oscar’s Big Five but right now we’re presuming it goes like this:
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Alternates: Marion Cotillard, Two Days or The Immigrant, Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Dark Horse: Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Pike has a few advantages here, or certainly did until Aniston hit the scene. She’s playing against type, playing a dark character, and led a movie to a $164 million box office win. She’s the only one of the five who can boast any sort of box office success at all.
Aniston also plays a hard-edged character (though I’ve not yet seen Cake) who isn’t as likable as Aniston herself. She has the Cinderella thing going on, being that no one really expected she’d parlay the tiny indie movie into an Oscar nod but that’s exactly what is happening, thanks in large part to a brilliant publicity campaign.
Witherspoon has won an Oscar already, and likely won’t be in a Best Picture contender. Only Pike and Jones can claim that honor, at least so far, this year. But Witherspoon produced Gone Girl and Wild, and starred in three films this year. She’s also working the publicity circuit as hard as Aniston.
The question isn’t really which actress can beat Julianne Moore, but rather, can Julianne Moore not win? With a long line of overlooked performances in films like Safe, Far From Heaven, The Big Lebowski, and The Hours, Moore has been the one major actress of her generation who hasn’t yet won an Oscar. From my perspective, I always look out for those kinds of wins. On the other hand, why do I get the sense that others don’t feel that way?
There are more multiple nominees without Oscar wins for women than there have been for men. It gets harder as an actress ages to win.
One of the most interesting years for that was 1950 when Judy Holiday beat both Bette Davis for All About Eve and Gloria Swanson for Sunset Blvd. Holiday’s performance was the most likable and charming, no doubt, as the plucky, funny, dumb blonde. No one can say she didn’t deserve it. Can we pause, however, to look at that year? All About Eve and Sunset Boulevard led by powerful older actresses – can you imagine any Oscar year now looking anything like that?
But neither Jennifer Aniston nor Rosamund Pike play likable charming nitwits. But you know if there was one in the race it would be a deadly threat. Here is how I see it lining up at the moment:
1. Julianne Moore – the frontrunner.
2. Jennifer Aniston – waiting in the wings.
3. Rosamund Pike – the threatening dark horse.
4. Reese Witherspoon – Previous win works against her but might not prevent her.
5. Felicity Jones – The young charmer who could come from behind
Here is a list of actresses who have been the bridesmaid but never the bride:
Debra Kerr – 6 nominations for Best Actress, 0 wins
Glenn Close – 3 for Best Actress, 3 for supporting, 0 wins
Amy Adams – 1 Best Actress, 4 supporting, – 0 wins
Irene Dunne – 5 nominations for Best Actress, 0 wins
Julianne Moore – 4 nominations, 2 Best Actress, 2 supporting, 0 wins
Annette Bening – 4 nominations, 3 Best Actress, 1 Supporting, 0 wins
Jane Alexander – 4 nominations, 2 Best Actress, 2 supporting, 0 wins
Marsha Mason – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Rosalind Russell – 4 nominations for Best Actress, 0 wins
Barbara Stanwyck – 4 nominations for Best Actress, 0 wins
Greta Garbo – 3 nominations for Best Actress, 0 wins
Debra Winger – 3 nominations for Best Actress, 0 wins
Laura Linney – 2 Best actress, 1 supporting, 0 wins
Sigourney Weaver – 2 Best Actress, 1 supporting, 0 wins
Michelle Williams – 2 Best Actress, 1 supporting, 0 wins
I don’t understand why everyone is saying Julianne Moore should win the Oscar this year. Let’s face it, her performance in “Still Alice” was good I won’t say it wasn’t but it was not a big deal. Rosamund Pike deserves the Oscar with heart and soul for her performance in “Gone Girl” it’s not only a better film than “Still Alice” but also Pike’s performance is way better. I do hope that Rosamund Pike might win this year because she totally deserves that award. Her performance in “Gone Girl” is unique and Julianne Moore’s performance in “Still Alice” is just to predictable.
Also, on Oscar nominations day, don’t b surprised if the Academy elevates Patricia Arquette to lead actress for Boyhood, where she really belongs. Supporting Oscar can go to another overdue actress Jessica Chastain or give Meryl a much deserved 4th Oscar. She should have won for French Liet.Woman and Julie/Julia, for sure & wasn’t even nominated for The Hours.
The academy rarely does the same thing in consecutive years. The Oscar goes to Pike. Young actress in hit film. Moore, who was a double nominee in 2002 for her two best roles & didn’t win, she won’t win for Still Alce. Her lack of campaigning hurts her. I’m tired of seeing Reese on all the morning talk shows. Bl a nchett had the Best Actress overdue factor last year. The Academy will feel that Moore will produce another Oscar worthy performance in the near future & will wait to award her. Her nomination is her comeback, very Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs, except she’s been elevated to frontrunner. From the trailer it’s a good performance, but Oscar caliber,,? She was last nominated in 2002 & not for Single Man & Kids are Alright. The critics choice winner will b very telling of future award shows.
Aniston is getting the Oscar nomination whether you like it or not. all the voters saw the movie before voting and thought she deserved it, I for one watched it at tiff and it Oscar worthy so am happy she got all those nominations
all those talking crap haven’t seen the movie yet, get a grip already people
If i would be an Academy Award Member i would definitely vote for Rosamund Pike! Her Performance blew me away! The way she introduces her to the audience is remarkable! This is what i call “The Performance of a Lifetime!” I was shocked after watching her in “Gone Girl”! Her Performane is one of the best Acting Performances i have seen EVER! She is PHENOMENAL!
Angelina Jolie
Golden Globes and SAG nominations in 2008 for A Mighty Heart. No Oscars
The same will happen with Jennifer Aniston this year
Nobody knows the movie Cake here and Aniston was able to grab that SAG and Globes nomination – over much acclaimed Cotillard !! It shows the great success of Aniston’s promotion team.
ROSAMUND PIKE IS THE ONLY ACRESS, THERE CAN BEAT MOORE AT THE OSCARS 2015!
IT IS BETWEEN THESE TWO. IN MY “WORLD” PIKE BEAT JULIANNE MOORE, EASILY AND TAKE. THE A.M.PA.S FOR AMY ELLIOT-DUNE IN “GONE GIRL”!PRIMA!
Rosemund Pike can easily beat Julianne Moore. just saying. 🙂
It would be INSANE if Aniston managed to make a “Bullock”. Bullock was in one of the biggest films of the year (200+ million dollars at the box office) AND the film was a Best Picture nominee. Plus her only real competition was Meryl Streep who was already twice a winner and was starring in a comedy.
Aniston’s film is an indie and will not be a big box office smash in any way (it would be lucky just to break 10 million dollars) and it will in no way be nominated for Best Picture let alone anything else. And her biggest competion is Julianne Moore (a due non-winner) and Rosamund Pike (a breakout star, also a non winner).
In no way will Aniston be able to upset, unless the movie suddenly makes 100 million dollars in three weeks. NOT gonna happen.
It would be fun, however. This was supposed to be the Brangelina Year (with Unbroken and Fury reaping Oscars). What a turn of events if both Unbroken and Fury went home empty handed and Aniston won Best Actress.
But not gonna happen… Aniston will still be lucky just to get nominated.
I think Jones is relatively safe. I think Aniston is somewhat shaky. I think it’ll be between Cotillard and her for the 5th spot. Cake isn’t exactly getting strong reviews. 50% on Rotten Tomatoes last I checked. Not to mention that the Academy seems to have a history of snubbing people like Jen.
I have to agree with JASON TRAVIS. I also have this feeling that Felicity Jones may turn to be the Emma Thompson of the year. The whole Marion Cotillard vs. Jennifer Aniston thing could end up in the favor of both as it happened last year when everyone was thinking about who was about to be left out of Oscar nominations in the Best Actress category, Meryl Streep (August Osage County) or Amy Adams (American Hustle) and out of nowhere Emma Thompson, who was nominated for pretty much everything didn’t earn a nomination. We’ve seen that the thing is you have to get enough no. 1 and 2 votes and in Jones’ case, there are many people who highly doubt she’s going to earn them and justly. I mean, don’t get me wrong, she’s wonderful in the film, but frankly she’s not Oscar-worthy. Aniston is even less, but let’s face it Oscars have become a popularity contest so Aniston may sneak in despite being just solid in Cake.
Why do you think that Julianne hasn’t been campaigning? Her profile is higher now than it’s every been, and she’s been attending lots of screenings and awards ceremonies.
I’m still not 100% Moore is going to win it. Pike is definitely a great threat because a) it’s a great role, b) she’s pretty and blonde and intelligent (the whole package basically), c) she gives a very good performance in a box-office hit from an acclaimed director.
What surprises me is Moore doesn’t seem to be actively campaigning. Look at Kate Winslet!!! Oscar likes someone who really wants it and campaigns hard for it. Pike has many more chances to come. If Pike wins, I hope Moore can still gain more sympathy with next year Cronenberg movie…
Obviously, we are spinning our wheels until we see who wins GG, SAG, CCA, and BAFTA — that portends the winner (see Sandra Bullock). But my fear is that many members of the Academy may want Moore to win and will THINK that she is going to win, but in the end don’t vote for her because they have not seen the film, which would open the door for Pike in her widely-seen role.
I personally think Rosamund Pike is the only one that can beat Julianne Moore. And I have believed nothing else for a while.
If it is between them two though, I am happy whatever happens.
I am not saying I am correct in dropping Jones, but I will say it’s high time folks started thinking OUTSIDE THE BOX when making predictions for who stays, and who goes. Why is this considered a 6-way race with only Aniston/OR Cotillard making the last slot? That’s beyond ridiculous. Open your eyes people! It’s like last year with Best Actress-
Everyone assumed it was going to be
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
With Amy Adams (American Hustle) vying for that fifth slot with Streep. No one said “Perhaps another lady may not make the cut”- hell, even I didn’t. Then the nominations released, and Amy Adams AND Meryl Streep both made it, but Emma Thompson was dropped. Because she was probably not getting enough 1s and 2s, thus with such a tight race- she was most likely 6th.
Same goes this time.
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Rosemund Pike (Gone Girl)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Even Hilary Swank is somewhat a factor, but let’s just stick to the six above. Why are we assuming Jones is locked in, and it’s Aniston and Cotillard fighting that final spot?? Please don’t say because of the precursor sheep. That’s not how we analyze this. Passion is where it’s at. I think Pike, Moore and Witherspoon def have passion and buzz right now. And I also think Aniston has MAJOR buzz rising, and she’s very much known and respected in the industry. I think honestly the final spot it between JONES and Cotillard fighting the final spot, and my gut is saying Cotillard is going to get more passion votes since it’s HER film, HER performance is much stronger and she’s already respected by the academy. Yes, it’s foreign and makes it more difficult- but I say she gets it. Jones – I don’t know, the only reason she makes it is because the passion for her FILM will sweep her in- which has happened before (Amy Adams usually gets nominated because her FILM has backing- ala American Hustle, Doubt, The Fighter, The Master).
I know I’m rambling, but I just think it’s best that when looking at any race, try to wager all possibilities. Don’t assume there’s just one factor.
Bet the discussions around here will be very different after the SAGs. As for Aniston, I’m not even sure she’ll make the Oscar cut. The SAGs are filled with TV voters too.
She doesn’t have to “kill” it. That’s what people aren’t understanding here. When it’s your year, it’s your year. Just ask Nicole Kidman. # of critics wins in 2003 (The Hours): 0. There are no critics in the Academy. Julianne will kill, very likely, at the Globes, most definitely at the SAGS, and for sure at the Oscars.
For a front runner, Julianne Moore hasn’t been killing it with the precursors. Whereas Boyhood, Richard Linklater, Michael Keaton, JK Simmons, Patricia Arquette have pretty much led in their categories.
Michelle Pfeiffer
2 Best Actress in a Leading Role
1 Best Actress in a Supporting Role
And George Golden……..care to wager $1,000 US dollars on that one?? I’m game!!
Julian; it was my pleasure. How could I resist?????
with a stick, exactly…
I will say this about Jennifer Aniston: she’s a fantastic comedienne. Friends is a classic sitcom and she definitely had a hand in that. The SNL cast was so impressed by her performance that they have said she easily could have been a cast member. Most guest hosts struggle to read the cue cards, let alone carry the night like Aniston has done, on a couple of occasions.
with a stick, probably.
Unlikelyhood: Props where props are due…. Julianne the Empress is NOT me.
But I’m deeply honored that he/she chose to play around with my moniker, of cause…:)
Directors like George Cukor, William Wyler, Alfred Hitchcock, Billy Wilder and Mike Nichols barely exist nowadays – thank God for Fincher and, to some extent, David O. Russell for providing juicy roles for actresses.
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl is a sight to behold. If she happens to nab an Oscar instead of Moore, I don’t think I’d be disappointed.However Moore has been consistently good since the early Nineties. It was a sin for the Academy to deny her an Oscar for Far From Heaven, just terrible. I haven’t seen Still Alice, but if Moore does a better job than Pike, then the award should be hers.
Mastroianni was nominated three times for foreign-language performances. Sophia Loren for two.
Also, did Bardem speak Spanish in Before Night Falls?
Agree with Jason Travis. Jones is crossed off my list, it’s a six-woman race without her.
Just want to give props to Julian the Emperor for changing his/her name for this Oscar race…makes sense.
Steven Kane brings up a great point, and makes me wonder which actors have even been *nominated* for two different foreign-language performances. Marcello Mastroianni, maybe? Robert DeNiro if we count Awakenings? 🙂
Rosamund Pike is going to win this.Sorry fan boys,but her performance is just too electric to be ignored.The range she showed was just mind blowing.The scene where she is watching her husband on the talk show begging her to come home, is just mind blowing.Her gaze was just amazing without her even saying a word.I will put my bet on miss Pike for the oscar.
I have no problem with Jennifer Aniston. Is she in the same league as Julianne?? Not even close.
Wow its quite shocking how people who HAVE NOT seen Cake are so quick to dismiss Aniston based on her persona and past films. She is a very good actress who has proved herself in comedy (not that easy to do) and on the few occasions she has done drama she has done a fabulous job. I say good luck to her. There is a huge void between what the snobbish critics think and what the guilds and industry people think. Aniston is never going to win with the critics because they would never lower themselves to watch one of her films. They would probably go into anaphylactic shock! We have seen what the critics think and now we get to see what the industry think and I must prefer the latter – that is where the true race is in my eyes. Go Team Aniston!!!!!
I also think that Sasha and Ryan know that this isn’t a close contest and are just f#$cking with you guys. Hey; you gotta keep the drama going somehow!!
Anyone know when Cake is coming out theatrically and/or VOD?
Guys: Julianne has this. By a fair margin. She’s been actively campaigning for the first time in her life. Has been on the film and awards circuits shaking hands and giving speeches. Alzheimer’s or not……….she’s in. I agree with those of you who say that Jennifer has no chance, even without Moore in the race.
JM has Maps AND Alice, the overdue factor, the campaigning, and the understanding that she’s the best actress out there never to have won before.
Here’s how I think the votes will split:
Julianne: 34%
WItherspoon: 22%
Pike 19% Men are scared shitless of her. If they didn’t give it to Glenn Close, who was sooo much better in FA…….
Jones: 15%
Fifth Nominee: 10%
This “race” is over.
Ummmmm……no, As if. It’s possible that one of them can win the Globe, but neither of them can touch her for SAG or Oscar.
Yes I think especially Aniston can beat Moore!!
It’s Julianne’s time.
I don’t believe any actor has won twice for foreign language performances because the Academy rarely awards such performances so the odds are slim.
I don’t think Pike can beat Moore, unless Moore is cursed like Deborah Kerr for some reason. I could see Witherspoon winning, though. Still think it will be Moore, not only because she gives a good performance but because she could have won before (I thought she deserved to win for The Hours).
Thinking about Cotillard being nominated…has there been any actor that has won TWO Oscars for foreign language performances? Would this make her the first if she won?
Sasha, do you think Moore can win both Golden Globes? Looking at the musical/comedy section for best actress I think she has the strongest chance of winning. But then that gets me thinking…will they award her both? If that’s the case I can see any of the drama actresses winning.
Jennifer Aniston’s chance of winning kinda depends on box-office of said movie, the way I see it… As was the case with the last romcom queen gone serious who took the gold, Sandra Bullock.
Aniston might get a nom but doesn’t stand a chance at winning. Pike might get the Globe but there’s no way she’s winning the Oscar. Cotillard could’ve taken it if she hadn’t already won. So Moore has this one but only because she doesn’t really have any serious competition.
Moore deserves an Oscar but not for Still Alice, a bland movie. If she would be nominated for Maps to the Stars I would be rooting for her. This year it should be between Pike and Cotillard for the win. I love Witherspoon but I acknowledge her movie is not on the same level as Gone Girl and Two Days, One Night.
Like last years Actor race and Actress Race (Redford AND Hanks missing out. Amy Adams and Streep in, Thompson out) … I feel that late-surges will be the key.
While I think Felicity Jones did a really lovely job and while her movie def. is beloved … I could see, not only Aniston, but hardddd hitting campaigners (and their teams/studios) like Amy Adams, Hilary Swank, and even Cotillard (on pure merit) grabbing attention of voters and wrestling away votes from less secured “assumed” nominees. I feel that Jones and maybe, dare I say Pike, are a teeny tiny bit susceptible to late surge madness during voting … and it IS madness. I mean, look at American Hustle last year … Bale!? Adams?! Cooper?! They were all fringe until voting HAPPENED and then bammm. They were in.
I agree with Sasha. This is Moore’s. I do not see any real threat. Her biggest rival is Pike but Gone Girl is not the type of movie the Academy deeply want to embrace.
Breaking this morning: Toronto Film Critics break with Hollywood for Best Actor and Actress prize. Tom Hardy and Marion Cotillard
http://torontofilmcritics.com/features/and-the-winners-are/
No offense to Aniston, but I just can’t see how Jennifer Aniston will be preferred from the Oscars over Marion Cotillard this year for a nomination as Best Actress In A Leading Role (!), let alone win the award towards Julianne Moore (!!!). I mean, seriously, Aniston is likable and solid in Cake, but Marion Cotillard is mesmerizing to watch in what is arguably her best performance since La Vie En Rose and the best female performance of the year as well. She deserves to take that spot over Aniston and really there’s no other female performance who deserves that fifth spot more. Cotillard actually deserves the first spot, so if she’s about to be snubbed from The Oscars again, it will be scandalous. The fact that she’s been snubbed from both Golden Globes and SAG Awards is truly disgusting.
The real question in this article is “can R.Pike beat Still Alice”, Jennifer Aniston is just a prop so it wouldnt be too obvious…Just because R.Pike won a few critics awards ? while J.Moore just won Chicago Critics Best Actress….and nowhere in the article was there a reference to “fuckability” factor that someone used if for many other actresses in the past! why? because she loved Gone Girl so everything about that movie must be good! If you dont see it, then it is your problem! same old, same old!
In my opinion many people confuse the good character with good acting.Amy is a great character but R.Pke has the best performance? not sure…I have seen all those contender performances except Jennifer Aniston…
Here is my ranking:
Julianne Moore
Marion Cotillard
Reese Witherspoon
Jessica Chastain (Eleonora)
Felicity Jones
Rosemund Pike
Hillary Swank
Hazel, I can’t believe Bafta nominated Maggie Smith in Lead for A Room With A View, she even won the award… Such a blatant category fraud, imo. Helena Bonham Carter was the sole lead in this film and would’ve been a deserving winner.
I don’t understand why people are very easy to discriminate Aniston for doing comedy movies that were not critically acclaimed and award-worthy.
Sad state of women in film. Sad state of respect for women in film. If a nomination and possible win can be given for taking off makeup, gaining weight, being Rachel from Friends and serving cupcakes screeners to voters. And not because more people have seen the film and have been blown away from her performance. Because if that were the fact than more movie award pundits would be whining about wanting to see the film.
I keep hearing this a lot and I want to ask a question! Now I have not seen “Cake” but why Aniston publicity campaign is any different from -let’s say- Melissa Leo for “The Fighter”?
Could Patricia sneak in for lead at BAFTA….just like Maggie Smith (Room with a View & California Suite) Peggy Ashcroft (A Passage to India) Kate Hudson (Almost Famous) Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener) Helen Mirren (The Madness of King George) Kim Basinger (L.A. Confidential) Berenice Bejo (The Artist) Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) Uma Thurman (Pulp Fiction) Judy Davis (Husbands and Wives) Jessica Tandy (Fried Green Tomatoes) Jessica Lange (Tootsie) Meryl Streep (The Deer Hunter & Kramer vs Kramer )…..not sure Juliannes and Jennifers movies will be eligible for BAFTA because of their late release dates
No. But Amy Adams can. Though I’d be already very happy with just a nom for her. If I were a member, I’d vote to nominate Adams and then I’d probably vote for Moore for the win. If anyone else but one of these two were to win, I’d be pissed and would regret not voting for Moore.
“And assuming Chastain is in, she’ll be 0 for 3.”
The thing with Chastain is, though, that if she gets in, she’ll automatically be catapulted up to the second spot thanks to her overdue status. So she could still be a threat to Arquette’s win (a minor threat, granted, because this race seems as good as settled).
2001 all over again. Great performances from Binoche and Burstyn, but the Oscar went to Julia Roberts anyway.
It’s gonna happen again this year, even though Pike is still a threat.
We might as well be complete: Edith Evans and Gladys Cooper had 3 in supporting.
Nowadays women are lucky to get repeat nominations, with the ageism in both the filmmaking and the nominating process. Marion should have already been nominated again by now. Hialry is taken for granted. Joan Allen has had multiple misses.
And you can add Edward Norton to that above list when he loses for Birdman.
And assuming Chastain is in, she’ll be 0 for 3.
Other notable ‘bridesmaids’ (maybe some of them have been mentioned by other commenters?), with 3 nominations and no win:
Angela Lansbury
Michelle Pheiffer
Sigourney Weaver
Joan Allen
no
Here are the male actors who are 0-for-multiple nominations…
0-for-8….Peter O’Toole
0-for-7….Richard Burton
0-for-5…Arthur Kennedy, Albert Finney
0-for-4….Ed Harris, Montgomery Clift, Warren Beatty, Charles Boyer, Claude Rains, Mickey Rooney, Leonardo Dicaprio
0-for-3….Johnny Depp, Tom Cruise, Nick Nolte, Clifton Webb, Brad Pitt, Kirk Douglas, Charles Bickford, Joaquin Phoenix, James Mason, Marcello Mastroianni, William Powell
(notes: Beatty won a Best Director Oscar, while Pitt got an Oscar for co-producing 12 Years A Slave
I really don’t see Aniston having any sort of chance to win, and even getting a nomination would be a major upset. Is there really any groundswell of support for her as an actress? I haven’t seen ‘Cake’ so I have no reason to doubt she’s any good in it, yet Aniston in general doesn’t exactly have a rep as an untapped talent, and I’m at a loss to think of even one particularly notable performance on her resume.
Pike-over-Moore makes some sense if you just look back at 2010 and, ironically, one of Moore’s great co-stars from The Kids Are All Right. In that year you had Annette Bening as the “respected, overdue veteran” with a great lead part playing a likable character who’s dealing with some issues. She lost out, however, to the younger option in Natalie Portman playing a femme fatale-ish “crazy chick” kind of role (Portman’s Nina Sayers was more paranoia-crazy while Pike’s Amy Dunne is sociopath crazy). It also helped Portman that she was starring in a more high-profile movie directed by a known auteur, similar to the Gone Girl/Fincher advantage that Pike holds over Still Alice/the two unknown co-directors.
Finally, while Sasha’s point about how hard it is for veteran actresses to find quality roles is bang-on, it’s mostly the veterans who are dominating this year’s Best Actress race. Moore is 54, Aniston is 45, Amy Adams is 40, Cotillard is 39, Witherspoon is 38, Pike is 35…..Jones is only 31, so I guess she counts as the young ingenue in the race.
You could also add Eleanor Parker to the Bridesmaids: 3 Lead Actress nominations, 0 wins. All within a span of 6 years. Not the most memorable star but a fine actor.
Diane Ladd – 3 supporting.
I refuse to buy into the hype with Aniston. If only Pike weren’t pregnant and she could be promoting Gone Girl more. But really, Julianne Moore better win. Still Alice isn’t so undeniable, but it’s a haunting film and performance and the most *conventional* and Oscar-friendly work of Moore’s illustrious career. Pike ain’t winning nor am I convinced she should, and no one else looks close to being worthy for their work this year – with the caveat that Aniston remains an unknown quantity to me.
But now we’re set on Aniston being 2nd?!?!
Why all the Jennifer Aniston snobbery?! Yes, she’s done her fair share of “low calibre” films, but that doesn’t mean she isn’t. capable of greater things.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for Cake is based off of 8 reviews, since then the word out of screenings has been overwhelmingly positive. I haven’t seen Cake but from what I hear, you have to see her performance to believe it… And not many people have seen it.
I will always wonder how Judy Holliday won in 1950 considering what fantastic performances came from Swanson, Davis, and even Baxter.
The general consensus was that Davis/Baxter split the ‘All About Eve’ vote (and both had Oscars already), and Swanson’s performance was perhaps seen more as a one-off from a returning veteran rather than as a performance for the ages. Also, as Sasha mentioned, Judy Holliday was really good in that movie. Holliday starred on Broadway in the same role and ‘Born Yesterday’ was her first major film starring role, with many expecting her to go to a big Hollywood career. Unfortunately, her career was hampered due to the Community blacklist. Had she not been blacklisted, it’s quite possible Holliday goes on to long-lasting stardom and we’re not sitting here in 2014 looking back on her name as a bit of an oddity up against such other iconic lead performances.
Is therea predict the Oscars contest this year? Because I’m so ready for it.. so ready to not put Aniston on my list and if she makes it good for her but you can’t compare her to bullock when her movie brought in 200 million and wasa best picture nominee as well which made her nomination easier. . Oh and it didn’t have a 50 percent on rt either lol. It’s interesting this article is predicting who will win when the nominees haven’t been announced yet but that’s OK lol. For surprise nominees im def thinking Rene russo or Ralph Fiennes or Alfred molina. . Just based solely on how well their movies did…I don’t know which of the three buti think one of them will..I don’t even know when noms are released but I’m ready to predict and just be over this year lol
“What exactly is Felicity Jones???”
She, along with her peers Rosamund Pike, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, etc. is an “it-girl” of the moment who was snubbed a few years ago (Like Crazy) and is starring in another breakout role alongside a Best Actor frontrunner in a likely Best Picture nominee.
“she’s following the Kate Winslet path”
Heck, who isn’t, in one way or another?
– Watermelons
if julianne’s better in maps, she should be campaigning for that, whoever thought of waiving an oscar campaign for maps of the stars is an idiot
haven’t seen maps of the stars or still alice, in which film was julianne better?
rosamund was really impressive in gone girl, if she wins it’ll be awesome, i guess my answer’s YES, rosamund pike can beat julianne moore
Jennifer’s the man! If Oscar’s going to ignore Marion Cotillard, Aniston is the next best thing.
Yeah, I’m willing to bet Julianne has this. This whole “the Academy doesn’t do Alzheimer’s” argument seems pretty shaky to me. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, Julie Christie was a previous winner who didn’t campaign and was up against a juggernaut performance from Marion Cotillard…and Christie still barely lost (I’m assuming based on the precursors that Christie mostly won). Jennifer Aniston in Cake, I think it’s safe to assume, isn’t of the same caliber as Cotillard’s performance. And Pike, as good as she is, stars in a somewhat divisive movie that will make it more difficult for her to get a consensus win, in my opinion.
Julianne has by all accounts an excellent performance in a movie that has received solid reviews, she has Maps to the Stars and the Cannes win in her side pocket to add further weight to her “banner year” narrative (and to demonstrate her range) as well as the “overdue” narrative, and as Sasha pointed out, she’s following the Kate Winslet path to an Oscar by being double-Globe nominated, except she one-upped Kate (sort of) by having two lead performances instead of one lead and one supporting.
I just don’t think anyone can beat that this year. Now if Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine was going up against Moore, Blanchett would still win, I think. But none of Julianne’s competition is really screaming Oscar, so all signs point to her.
Oh, and Julianne was runner-up with the LAFC, so she would have won that if they’d voted for Arquette in supporting.
I looked up Deborah Kerr’s six nominations. Amazingly, that doesn’t include Black Narcissus or some of the others for which she is best known. Sure From Here to Eternity and The King and I. But not Colonel Blimp or King Solomon’s Mines, etc.
OT : I’m about to board a flight and so far I’ve seen three people reading Gone Girl in the terminal…and the movie has been out for two months. Sign ? Probably not but we definitely shouldn’t underestimate Pike…zeitgeist can be a powerful thing.
Jones will get a nomination because THEORY is beloved and she is practically the lead.
Her SAG nomination might be easy to write off as a fluke that wouldn’t be repeated by Oscar had the film not also gotten an Ensemble nomination for what is hardly an Ensemble piece (it certainly wasn’t Emily Watson’s doing!). That demonstrates widespread love for the film itself that locks her in.
I don’t think Aniston has a chance to win, even without Julianne Moore in this race. If she does, it will be another big mistake like Sandra Bullock, Jennifer Lawrence and Reese Witherspoon who won based on stardom not performance. I think the academy should focus on actresses who have done great work for many years now like Marion Cotillard. She’s very underrated, like Charlize Theron, both always giving great performance but barely getting any recognition after their oscar wins.I don’t understand how people see her as a snub already. Marion Cotillard, Julianne Moore, and Rosamund Pike are the only ones taking all the critics awards. Jennifer Aniston has not gotten any of them yet, so I don’t get why all the buzz and talk about winning when she should be in fifth or sixth place.
Weird theory : if Still Alice receives more than one nomination, Julianne Moore will definitely win. If it only receives one AND Gone Girl is properly embraced (= frontrunner in adapted screenplay, nominee in at least one of the BP/BD combo), Pike may have the edge in the end…and as much as I love Moore, that would be fine with me. Amazing Amy is (arguably) the most memorable female character of 2014 and Pike – an actress who has been delivering consistently great (and criminally overlooked) performances for a decade – pulled it off with flying colors. If Pike wins, Moore is destined for a colinfirth (=previous year’s runner up turning into the instant frontrunner) next year with Freeheld which is based on a heartbreaking Oscar winning documentary. Having said that as long as it is one of these two actresses this year, I’m happy.
Basis of the “theory” ? In the last 20 years only two actresses won Best Actress with films that received only one nomination (Theron, Lange) and if we narrow it down to the last 10 years, 7 BA winners were in BP nominated films. So strictly based on precedent Still Alice needs to sneak in somewhere else, too (adapted screenplay, supporting actress, maybe bp?) and even then Pike could still have the edge if it actually makes the cut in BP. Although it must be said, if there is an actress for whom the Academy may be willing to bend a little on their voting habits, it’s Julianne Moore…especially this year : female lead of a well-received BO hit in February (Non Stop); she became the first American actress to complete her European trifecta in May (Maps to the stars); great Oscar buzz since Toronto (Still Alice) and the biggest exposure of her career in November (Mockingjay). Her narrative is just too damn powerful.
P.S. Aniston is more Huffman than Bullock in my opinion. She may sneak in with her tiny indie but there is no way she could win. Bullock could pull it off because her film was a huge surprise hit (260M in the US alone on a 29M budget) AND thanks to its immense popularity, a (shocking) BP nominee. Cake won’t come close to either of those things. It is Transamerica basically…a nod is possible, a win is not.
I want to note that not in her entire film career has Kate Winslet (Iris, All the King’s Men) failed to earn an Oscar nomination when her film grosses over $100 million at the U.S./Can box office (sources: Box Office Mojo, IMDb). Though not a traditional Oscar role, it is hard to shake off what the math tells us about Kate ‘the GREAT’ Winslet’s chances of earning Oscar attention for Divergent (2014).
– Watermelons
P.s. I know this is more about the supporting actress race, but if an Oscar legend like Winslet is in the supporting field, maybe the Best Actress race could be the one voters choose to make more fiery and radical voting choices?
-Watermelons
As I said, I am dropping Jones from my Best Actress predictions. She isn’t going to get enough number 1 and 2 votes to keep her in. I can see Jennifer Aniston getting a lot of those, Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon as well. And Marion Cotillard DEF will get number 1 slots. Who is honestly going to write down Jones that high? She’s just like Emma Thompson; in the middle, but will fail a nod.
There is no reason for Jennifer to be best actress.
At least not this season. Keep tryin Jen.
Where is Michele Pfeifer in this list?
The thing about nominating Aniston is that I don’t like the fact that she (and Steve Carell) are being contemplated for awards for dramatic roles when their real talent is comedy. I didn’t like the original Horrible Bosses, but a lot of critics did, and she stole the film. But that film doesn’t have enough “prestige” to be considered.
I dont have a huge yes or no on Julianne Moore in Still Alice or Maps to the Stars, being that I haven’t seen either film. But the weird desperation to put a trophy in her hand among Oscar pundits has been a definite turn-off.
As far as Felicity Jones – boring role, boring film. I liked her a lot more in Like Crazy a few years back, But how she is beating Scarlett Johansson is a mystery. I assume TTOE has a great Oscar publicist.
I wish people would stop saying that Julianne Moore will win because she’s overdue. Just watch Still Alice, with every scene she turns herself even more into that woman, and she made me feel like she actually had Alzheimer’s. That speech scene alone put her performance above Pike’s. And while the movie (Still Alice) is certainly watchable, but with any lesser actress, it would be a drag.
Oh yes, when Julianne Moore won Emmy and GG and whatever else for that Palin biopic, there was HUGE love for her in each of the telecasts. Moore has been without a lot of fuss and fanfare been a most prolific actor – and not just in Oscar baity projects, but in horror/sci-fi/comedy/ – she is incredibly versatile.
My instinctual answer is no – but that is because a) i want Julianne Moore to be an Oscar winner. b) The narrative is strong and building for her. c) I’m not convinced Aniston has the cache that Bullock or Witherspoon had. (but then again I whinged and moaned all the way to Miss Congeniality’s win). d) I ran out of reasons after c). 🙂
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS (December 15, 2014)
Jennifer Aniston, “Cake”
Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
Why does everyone assume Felicity Jones will be nominated? With a race this tight, votes are going to count. Big time. Remember when everyone assume Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson would make it just because “everyone else keeps mentioning them”?? Neither actor had a solid chance to actually win, and both had already taken awards in the past. They were middle grounders, nothing more.
Every actress besides Jones has a REASON they are competitive:
Pike is the breakthrough star with the box-office hit and carries her film
Witherspoon is getting the reviews of her career, and it’s basically HER show the whole time
Moore is the frontrunner with a strong performance that also centers around her character
Aniston is on the verge of her first nod for a fiery performance and she’s also a big star
Cotillard is earning rave after rave and is a previous winner who is due another nod after multiple snubs
What exactly is Felicity Jones??? She’s a supportive wife. Uh, okay? How does that solidify her for a guaranteed nomination? She has no story, nothing elevates her above Raymond, she comes off a bit boring. I mean seriously – I think Hilary Swank or Marion Cotillard are getting that fifth spot. Anyone else care to contribute to what I might not be seeing?
I don’t really know if the Academy keeps up with how many nominations actors/actresses have had, et at the same time, an actor’s body of work does seem to resonate with the Academy (Al Pacino, Susan Sarandon, etc.). I think Julianne Moore should have won the Oscar easily for Far From Heaven, and while great in “Still Alice,” I feel Rosamund Pike gives the best performance of the year. I do wonder if many of the older Academy members will want to award a performance centered around Alzheimer’s (they didn’t award Julie Christie, who I know already had an Oscar or Emmanuelle Riva, whom some members found hard to probably sit through). It would become a question of if they want to award Moore her overdue Oscar for her past body of work, or if they want to award her for “Still Alice,” and they should vote for her if they feel she gave the best performance.
Another thing to remember is that “Still Alice” is also probably going to have one nomination, for Moore, and no other support. We also have to see how that functions in the race, especially when Gone Girl is going to possibly have 3-4 nominations and is a box office juggernaut.
I really enjoyed this post, Sasha. I’ve grappled with you’re contributions over the years, but this was a pleasure. Very balanced. Through a fluke, I was fortunate enough to see Cake early. I look forward to reading others opinions, but Aniston’s performance was shocking, in a wonderful way. The film was ho hum in my opinion, but she will surprise so many. I’m holding out for Pike right now, but I haven’t seen Witherspoon yet.
Aren’t we also missing out on of the biggest Best Actress winning scenarios – who’s the most fuckable actress ? I’ve seen Sasha post on it numerous times in the past , If that is the case it’s all Pikes !!!! amazing Amy for the win!!!
Granted, I haven’t seen Still Alice, but I feel like we’ve seen Alzheimer’s before. Granted, Julie Christie (Away from Her) didn’t win. But, after seeing Gone Girl twice now, I can’t imagine a more perfect lead performance, man or woman, than what Rosamund Pike gave. She was abso-nuts! But, careful, a la Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs.
Plus, so far, Gone Girl is my favorite movie of the year, so I have that reason for why I’d prefer to see Rosamund Pike win.
But, as for Reese Witherspoon in Wild, I’m hoping to see it this weekend.
6 supporting actress nominations for Thelma Ritter, 4 for Agnes Moorehead. Agnes absolutely should have won for The Magnificent Ambersons, and maybe Hush, Hush Sweet Charlotte too.
Isabelle, thanks for your help. Typos happen.
In keeping with your “how hard is it to ______” rhetoric, I could ask you: how hard is it to point out a slip-up without spitting out insults?
In keeping with your “how hard is it to ______” rhetoric, I could ask you: how hard is it to point out a slip-up without spitting out insults?
Thanks Ryan! I was a little sleepy while writing that post – I will admit. I would love for any visitor of this site to see how hard it is to run for just one day. One minute of one day even. Not to mention sixteen years of it.
I will also say to Isabelle please don’t cunt up these boards. Thanks.
reflex answer: No!
Yes, Billie Dawn took down Margot Channing & Norma Desmond, so anything is possible, but remember this – if I used “Billie Dawn” in a sentence by itself without the other two references, nobody would know what the fuck I was talking about. Margot and Norma still reverberate – 64 years later.
People may not remember Still Alice, but they’ll remember Moore getting an Oscar, finally. Pike’s time is coming.
Speaking of great performances by women, Aaron Sorkin was quoted today saying, “the guy who wins the Oscar for Best Actor has a much higher bar to clear than the woman who wins Best Actress,” that the parts for women have a lesser degree of difficulty. Too bad Joseph Mankiewicz and Billy Wilder are gone as they could maybe teach writer Sorkin something about creating bigger, meatier characters for the other 50% of the population. Or Tennessee Williams could just bitch-slap some sense into him.
You mean Deborah Kerr, of course. And it’s a shame she never won. Not to mention Barbara Stanwyck. But if Bette Davis could loose for All About Eve, nothing could ever surprise me, compared to that any other loss feels like kids play. Especially that probably some of the voters of that year still vote today ( or so it feels … )
This post just proves that the real fireworks will be in Best Actor this year.
I will always wonder how Judy Holliday won in 1950 considering what fantastic performances came from Swanson, Davis, and even Baxter.
I thought Julianne Moore was exquisite in ‘Still Alice,’ won’t gripe if she wins, and totally agree she’s overdue for a win. BUT … I would personally give the Oscar to Rosamund Pike for ‘Gone Girl.’ If we’re solely basing off the performance in a single film and not the actress most deserving of a “career win” right now. It took me 2-3 viewings to really grasp what a performance she’s giving, but Pike is just so versatile and scary and and electrifying and above all else, sympathetic, in ‘Gone Girl’. (Not even my favorite film of the year, but fingers crossed it plays better with the Academy than other awards.)
If we threw foreign actresses into the mix, Luminita Gheorghiu (‘Child’s Pose’) and Essie Davis (‘The Babdook’) might give her a run for her money, but of these actresses that are realistically in the race, I’d stick with Rosamund. Reese and Felicity were both highlights of their respective films, so I’m glad they’re nominated. As for Aniston? Still have to see Cake, but given the reviews I’ve read, she’s pulled off one hell of an awards campaign.
Me thinks someone is following buzz a little too closely. I think Pike is second easily.
Obviously haven’t seen Still Alice or Cake but will be seriously bummed if Moore doesn’t win. Seriously bummed. Major bummed. Fucking pissed bummed.
You also forgot to include my girl Michelle Pfeiffer for Bridesmaids, 2 BA losses, 1 supporting loss.
Also Julianne just won Chicago BA. And let’s point out 2 of Pike’s cities just happen to be from the state Gone Girl took place it. Let’s keep it real yo!
I’m sorry but if Aniston beats Moore or Pike I just give up. What has she won? Has her movie even gotten good reviews? Last I checked it was at 50% at RT. It’s barely been seen outside of fesitvals. Why on earth would she be anything but 5th.
Why is it that Best Actress is the category that people just want to make a total mockery of it all? Bullock? Lawrence? I mean come on.
Because Aniston is bankable and a big star? Is that why she would win? Than why hasn’t Dicaprio won.