The Oscar race for Best Picture looks a little like the shelves at Kmart after a Black Monday sale. The reason for that is because so many of the year-end hopefuls did not turn out to be the Big Oscar Movies everyone had come to expect after years like 2012 and 2013. This one looks a little more like 2011, where there was only one movie that could win – it had no challengers.
This year, it doesn’t feel like anything can touch Richard Linklater’s consummate coming of age film, Boyhood.
The only film I think that has the stuff to potentially beat Boyhood in an 11th hour shocker would be Ava DuVernay’s Selma. That movie is on fire right now — where it will end remains a mystery. But it’s the only film I’ve seen that gives Boyhood some serious heat.
Pundits dutifully jotted down those they thought once upon a time COULD beat Boyhood, like Interstellar, like Unbroken, like Birdman. Those films have proven to be more divisive than anyone ever imagined, and there is no way you can win a consensus with a divisive film.
The Hurt Locker ( negative on RT=6/224)
The King’s Speech (negative on RT=14/240)
The Artist (negative on RT=4/229)
Argo (negative on RT=11/266)
12 Years a Slave (negative on RT=9/265)
Of the movies that can win this year:
Boyhood (negative on RT=3/215)
Selma (negative on RT so far=0/37)
Birdman (negative on RT=12/173)
Imitation Game (negative on RT=17/153)
Gone Girl (negative on RT=30/249)
Theory of Everything (negative on RT=30/154)
Best picture when you’re dealing 9 or 10 nominees means it’s the film you can’t hate, and the film that has built up a slow and steady consensus by year’s end, starting either back in the first part of the year (The Artist in Cannes) or hitting the race some time in August or September. This consensus is the Mary Bailey of the contenders – the reliable, trustworthy, lovable girl next door who’s been there the whole time. Violet Bick is usually the movie that comes along all flashy and exciting for a bit but sooner or later you realize she isn’t the girl for you.
There is safety in what you know and what you know is usually that one movie has withstood the long and heated months of Oscar punditry, critical consensus, costly publicity. This is why it’s always hard to get your foot in the door as a late breaking movie. There isn’t time to build consensus because no one really knows what it is yet. No one knows if they like the movie or not. Remember Life of Pi and the Academy’s supposed reaction to it, according to Scott Feinberg. We all discounted it. I remember writing think pieces about how the Academy would never go for it. But time happened to it. Time and money. The movie started picking up word of mouth once the initial negative buzz wore off. People started talking about the movie as the movie and not as an Oscar contender. Ultimately the movie would take home a boatload of Oscars, including Best Director. It needed time to settle in the consensus to become the sure bet that it ended up being.
Because our Oscar race isn’t yet written, we still can’t really define our consensus beyond what we think we know about how “they” will vote. What will determine it better will be the upcoming guild votes, the Producers Guild, which is currently the only voting body that mirrors the Academy’s preferential system. But unlike the Academy, they have ten slots for nominations, and not five. Still, they are pretty close. The Directors Guild almost always gets a movie in for Best Picture. Almost always. The only time they haven’t since the Best Picture count expanded was once, in 2011, with David Fincher and the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That decision is the primary reason pundits like Kris Tapley, Scott Feinberg and Dave Karger have omitted Fincher and Gone Girl this year. They are assuming that it’s another popular movie that the Academy will reject. I would not be that surprised either, truth be told. I still believe Dragon Tattoo was easily one of the best films of 2011 — here is how it went down guild/Academy-wise:
SAG | PGA | DGA | Eddie | Oscar |
The Artist | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist |
The Descendants | The Descendants | The Descendants | The Descendants | The Descendants |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
Hugo | Hugo | Hugo | Hugo | |
Dragon Tattoo | Dragon Tattoo | Dragon Tattoo | Tree of Life | |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids | Extremely Loud | |
The Help | The Help | The Help | ||
Moneyball | Moneyball | Moneyball | ||
War Horse | War Horse | War Horse | ||
My Week with Marilyn | ||||
Young Adult | ||||
The Ides of March |
So why did Bridesmaids and Dragon Tattoo get supplanted at the Academy with Tree of Life and Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close? I can tell you that with the latter the largest branch of the Academy otherwise known as the actors jammed it through. You can always tell when the actors have their say because the film will have a Best Picture nomination and only one acting nomination. The same thing happened with The Blind Side the previous year.
Either Bridesmaids or Dragon Tattoo should have, by rights, taken Extremely Loud’s spot. I would also argue that War Horse was not up to the standards of either Spielberg’s body of work or the Academy’s choices. This year, these two slots could be taken up by Unbroken and American Sniper because inside the insular world of Academy voters, with only five slots for nominating, and not the freedom of ten, they tend to “vote with their heart.” Remember the King’s Speech’s brilliant campaign strategy, “Some movies make you feel”?
Neither War Horse nor Extremely Loud earned anywhere near as much as Bridesmaids did, which is currently one of the highest grossing R-rated films ever made. I don’t know if I can argue for an Academy that would have picked Bridesmaids, but I can say that their ultimate choices illustrates just how insular and out of touch with the American public they are. They are managed and handled by publicists so carefully that it’s as though they have no idea what’s really going on anymore. Oscar Island is shrinking by the year.
It really comes down to this in the 11th hour:
And this image, circulated recently by the Academy:
Now, let’s look at the following year to see if our ‘Heart Light’ metaphor holds true:
SAG | PGA | DGA | Eddie | Oscar |
Argo | Argo | Ben Affleck | Argo | Argo |
Lincoln | Lincoln | Steven Spielberg | Lincoln | Lincoln |
Les Miserables | Les Miserables | Tom Hooper | Les Miserables | Les Miserables |
Zero Dark | Kathryn Bigelow | Zero Dark | Zero Dark | |
Life of Pi | Ang Lee | Life of Pi | Life of Pi | |
Silver Linings | Silver Linings | Silver Linings | Silver Linings | |
Beast of the Southern Wild | Beast of the Southern Wild | |||
Django Unchained | Django Unchained | Django Unchained | ||
Amour | ||||
Moonrise Kingdom | Moonrise Kingdom | |||
Skyfall | Skyfall | |||
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | Ted |
Amour was the exception, and it definitely leans towards “heart light” vote, as opposed to analytic, meaning its position as a number one film outweighed its popularity with the consensus overall. Moonrise Kingdom and Skyfall, one popular with audiences and one not, were zotzed. It’s hard to imagine your average Academy member walking around saying Moonrise Kingdom was his favorite film of the year – sure, there would be some, but not enough apparently. Now that the buzz has mostly died down from 2012, it’s hard to imagine Moonrise not taking Amour’s spot. Love Amour though I do, it seems like an odd choice for such a large consensus.
We’re still looking at Dragon Tattoo being the one exception that got a PGA, DGA and an Eddie nod but did not get a Best Picture nod.
SAG | PGA | DGA | Eddie | Oscar |
12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave |
American Hustle | American Hustle | American Hustle | American Hustle | American Hustle |
Gravity | Gravity | Gravity | Gravity | |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips | |
Wolf of Wall Street | Wolf of Wall Street | Wolf of Wall Street | Wolf of Wall Street | |
Nebraska | Nebraska | Nebraska | ||
Her | Her | Her | ||
Dallas Buyers Club | Dallas Buyers Club | Dallas Buyers Club | ||
August Osage County | August Osage County | |||
Saving Mr. Banks | Saving Mr. Banks | |||
Blue Jasmine | ||||
Philomena | ||||
Inside Llewyn Davis | ||||
The Butler |
The two that were eliminated this time around were Saving Mr. Banks (hurt by a scandal involving the lead character), and August: Osage County which the actors failed to jam through. Philomena was the “Amour” pick, the one that came from out of nowhere and landed in the Best Picture race, though pundits kept saying “watch out for…”
So that brings us to this year. It’s still too early to start stacking up the guilds but in a few weeks we will do just that. The reason that I started with 2011 was because that’s when the Academy instituted the “anywhere from 5 to 9” rule, but gave voters just five slots for nominations. With ten slots, predicting them would be far easier and I suspect, in such an instance, Bridesmaids, Dragon Tattoo and Skyfall would have made the list, thus satisfying the desire by the Academy to widen their scope from their insular little world of emoticon travel to acknowledge what was happening “out there” in the world, too. But alas, the new system merely echoes their narrow choices without expanding them in any significant way.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to find the Amour/Tree of Life/Philomena in the crowd. The only thing I could find that unites these three films in that they tend towards emotion. Only one had a Golden Globe nomination, only one made AFI’s list, and one won the Foreign Language Globe. Beyond that, though, there is not any kind of precursor support that would lend itself to consensus building.
The only thing I can come up with is the screener pile. Once home for the holidays, families of Academy members gather round the hearth fire. They begin to contemplate the big things. Each of these three films is about growing old in some fashion and looking at one’s past. Two of them confront mortality. Sitting around with your family there or not there, alone or with loved ones, Christmas and Hannukah does kind of ping the bigger issues, perhaps.
Academy members are a lot older, by and large, than people think. Attend an Academy screening some time and you’ll see what I mean. That generation, the elders, really made the difference with the surprise picks going back to 2011.
So what movie is going to turn on the heart light of the senior set, infuse their holiday experience with profound thoughts of mortality, love, a journey into the past but is also a film that will likely be overlooked by the major guilds, and one that hasn’t yet found its consensus.
For the most part, there are one or two on the Gurus of Gold charts that were keyed into these potential surprises. Amour was chosen by many leading up to Christmas. Philomena
was predicted by many. It wasn’t a complete shock but more of a shock were the ones left off, like Inside Llewyn Davis last year, Best Exotic Marigold the year before.
The guild consensus does not necessarily indicate how the insular Academy, an older, more sentimental voting body will go 100% of the time. We can gauge maybe the top six of seven, but it’s hard to predict all of them under the new system.
In the years I’ve been watching the Oscar race I have never seen such a stark disconnect between Academy voters and the rest of the ticket buying public out there. I’m not really sure what they’re supposed to represent anymore since it seems to reflect such a specific taste of a certain type of person. I don’t think we can say with confidence that they reflect the industry’s taste overall, and I don’t think they, in any way, reflect the taste of audiences. They merely play the Oscar game.
My current predictions:
Best Picture
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Theory of Everything
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
6. Selma
7. Gone Girl
Heart light movies:
Unbroken
Interstellar
Wild
Love is Strange
Clint Eastwood wild card:
American Sniper
Movies that could struggle under the current system:
Nightcrawler
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Into the Woods
A Most Violent Year
Mr. Turner
The Homesman
The reason that I have Gone Girl chosen, even making a pretty good case that they have to have something against David Fincher to have not voted in Dragon Tattoo, is that I don’t think Gone Girl IS like Dragon Tattoo. Sure, it’s in the range of movies the Academy punishes for being too commercial, too successful and above all: ABOUT WOMEN (note how under the new system, films about women are more rare than ever) but I have to think they will pick the film because it is going to be one of the more entertaining films in the screener pile, given that it’s lasted this long. But don’t you be like me. Follow the safe pundits like Tapley, Feinberg and Karger on this one.
Unbroken (negative on RT=65/131)
Sam L., I love ”Grand Budapest Hotel” and only wish that Ralph Fiennes and Tony Revolori were getting more credit (and nominations) as Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. They created fully three-dimensional characters and had great chemistry. But as we know, the Academy often underrates comedic performances. Its voters are often pushovers for dramas with leading characters who are drunken, disabled or crazed. I’m especially ticked off that the Golden Globes allowed ”Birdman” to get away with category fraud by calling itself a ”comedy.” Fiennes should’ve had that Best Actor in a Comedy sewn up, but now will probably lose to Michael Keaton (who’s deserving, but not in a ”comedy”). Oh, well, I’ll root for ”Grand Budapest” to upset for SAG Ensemble. And I imagine its best shots to win at the Oscars will be Original Screenplay, Production Design and (I hope) Original Score.
Once again, I find myself disagreeing with the logic here. Not the Oscar logic, mind you, but the actual logic of what some of these films represent. When you talk about why Amour and Tree of Life got it, its quite simple: Sometimes there is a movie that simply cannot be denied. Those two movies have nothing to do with the heart-light. Of course, Amour has more to do with it than any other Haneke film, but it made it in because it felt like a Cries and Whispers, a new instant classic that felt like an old one. Perhaps because it had to do with love it allowed the academy to vote it in, I will give you that. But love was only the entry point.
As for Tree of Life, that movie made it in because it had so many supporters and because it is most likely the best film of the past five years. It made it in on its ambition, scope and achievement. Even the Oscar voters – enough of them, anyway – understood that it was a 2001: A Space Odyssey like work of art. Sometimes, a movie cannot be denied.
I think Fincher’s position is a little bit like Greengrass of last year. DGA opt for Fincher but Academy choose Bennett Miller ???
Gloden Globes Director Lineup:
Linklater
Fincher
DuVernay
Wes Anderson
Inarritu
According to the latest trend at least one name is going to be left off from this list. Tough call !!
“Nick, I agree with you. I could see Bradley Cooper or Ralph Fiennes or Jake Gyllenhaal.”
Al, yes I agree. Personally I think Carell is toast. One of those three I believe will take the 5th spot or two of those three will make it in. Hopefully Jake gets nominated because his performance is the best i’ve seen this year.
Am I only one who is seeing this? You guys are TOTALLY missing the boat on the ONLY real true threat which is Budapest Hotel. It could very well wind up the nomination kingpin with double digit noms, will score in every guild mention, will be playing on HBO during the voting period, made excellent box office, has every actor (3 past winners and 11 nominees in total) in the world in it, and has the right mix of humor and pathos. If Fiennes gets nominated that’s a HUGE tip. Hollywood LOVES this film.
“Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to find the Amour/Tree of Life/Philomena in the crowd.”
Mission accepted. I’m NGNG in the tank for Harvey to get Big Eyes in. Other possibilities are Still Alice, American Sniper or St. Vincent.
“The Tree of Life” and “Amour” are both more of an art house kind of movie, made by acclaimed contemporary auteurs. Both are not easy to watch and even if they strongly seek emotion, these films are far from a traditional emotional/american filmmaking. They also got in BP line up with support from the directors branch, Haneke and Malick got their surprising (and totally deserving) nominations. In my opinion, the directors branch votes are a key factor to determine which one will get a BP nomination.
It seems to me that they usually prefer small, artsy, emotional indie dramas/dramedies than large scale, popular movies. Payne over Greengrass, Haneke, Zeitlin and O. Russell over Affleck, Bigelow and Hooper, Malick over Fincher, the Coens over Nolan, Stephen Daldry over Nolan, Reitman over Penn.
That’s why I think Bennet Miller and Damien Chazelle, for an example, may actually have big chances of being nominated for directing and, of course, picture. I think Mr. Turner and Mike Leigh also have a strong shot not only with the brits but with the many Leigh lovers academy has.
Changing the subject, it’s hard for me to understand why is everyone still doubting Nightcrawler and Jake chances. I think both are locked. Nightcrawler is getting a LOT of love, it’s on a huge number of top10s, it is a L.A. story, focusing on the audiovisual industries, with plenty of almost meta references that everybody who works with cinema/tv/journalism will catch and like. I’m totally betting my money it will get picture, actor and original screenplay nominations at least.
I concur with those above me who say Mr. Turner could surprise us. Only 2 negative reviews on Rotten Tomatoes versus 93 positive reviews. Plus Mike Leigh is well liked, and the British contingent of the Academy is not usually well represented in the Guild voting. Look for these possible nominations: Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume, Set, Score, and maybe Lead Actor.
agree with you Stephan Holt. I believe Academy voters, or many of them, will want something big and important on the wall at the Kodak, on their BP list.
It also says something that Paramount did not release the film through Paramount Vantage. I hope they are hungry.
For myself, I fell in love with Boyhood so I a not campaigning for Selma, which I have not seen, but I do believe Selma could be a film for the ages.
Sasha, I agreed with you at the beginning of this article– that Boyhood is our winner unless Selma comes charging– but the more you explained yourself, the less you made sense. Bridesmaids, a comedy that people love and that they talk about infinitely more than anybody talks about EL&IC and War Horse, wasn’t a “heart light pick”? No, it definitely is touching and beloved. But it’s a comedy and the Academy doesn’t do those most of the time. Amour is a “heart light pick” and not “analytic”? Haneke is one of the most matter-of-fact directors that there is and almost always avoids a happy ending– he’d probably laugh at that notion. And I would also argue that Birdman isn’t divisive– comparing its RT score to Boyhood (a revelation) and Selma (where reviews aren’t even in) is grossly unfair. It’s at 93% for goodness’s sake! It’s sweeping most every critics Best Film award that Boyhood isn’t. It’s not divisive. It’s just not our winner. There’s a difference.
Rob Y- I totally agree with you about the 10-to-5 vote switch not having an effect and have made the case here a half dozen times, almost always having my argument “pooh-poohed” despite evidence (Steve Pond analyzed critics’ top ten lists using the new process when the change was made– noting that critical top tens are almost certainly more diverse than Academy members’ ballots– and found that only 10% of ballots went to picks 6-10… and that’s not even mentioning that there’s no proof that picks 6-10 are at all different than picks 1-5).
Anyway, I’m behind you, but good luck having anyone truly internalize your argument.
And look at that, totally forgot Interstellar. Good Lord. Weak year, huh?
Don’t even know where I’d put it. It seems just as likely to get in with passion as much as won’t (genre bias). No clue.
I’d also include Mr. Turner and Nightcrawler – which I LOVED – somewhere in the 10-15 grouping.
Thinking the race for BP noms looks like this for now:
Locks:
1 – Boyhood
2 – Birdman
3 – Selma
——seemingly locked/loved——-
4 – The Imitation Game
5 – The Theory of Everything
——-looking better and better——
6 – The Grand Budapest Hotel
——-sure seems IN “on paper”——
7 – Gone Girl
——-Not sure sure about these—–
8 – Whiplash
9 – Unbroken
——-could get in, but do they have enough passion?——-
10 – American Sniper (coming up around the outside?)
11 – Into the Woods
——-dead?———
12 – Foxcatcher
——-too late/too small?——
13 – A Most Violent Year
After that raves of raves in the NY Times, I think it is clear that “Selma” is the movie that could turn the whole Oscar race around. If anything could break up the “Boyhood” awards log-jam, Selma could.
It worries me though that neither the excellent Tom Wilkenson as a compassionate LBJ or Carmen Ejogo as an elegiac Coretta King have not appeared in any of the percursor Supporting Awards. Both are depicted as passionate, conflicted characters. If they turn up with nominations on Oscar Nomination Day, you’ll know the tide has turned “Selma” way.
Oyelewo and DuVernay are locks for nominations, and if the momentum keeps building, they could even win.
“Selma” has the size and scope (to use Anne Thompson two favorite words) to be what a Best Picture should be in AMPAS’ eyes.
Do you really care what the ticket-buying public thinks? I think only when it suits your preferences. I certainly didn’t hear you talking about the wisdom of the ticket-buying public when The Hurt Locker was creaming Avatar.
The ticket-buying public are idiots. Gone Girl deserves a Best Picture nomination because it’s a great fucking movie, not because it’s made money.
Speaking of heart, A O Scott’s review of Selma in today’s NY Times is as effusive and admiring as any review I have read, particularly from him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/25/arts/in-selma-king-is-just-one-of-the-heroes.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Yes, Rob, I agree. I wonder how much of a difference it has made, though. Certainly, some peculiar things have been afoot within the Academy since the Best Picture rule change to 5-10 films. I don’t know if any particular shift has occurred or not, but it seems that there may be some viability to Sasha’s argument, if only a little.
I think Selma will have a huge impact when it finally opens. It might be the dark horse that eventually nails it.
BFCA gave ‘Unbroken’ which is less than 60 on Metacritic a big push but mostly ignored Foxcatcher. Why Jason doesn’t see ‘Unbroken’ happening due to the star power of the director is a surprise. Who knows? Jolie might even make history and win best director over Fincher and Linklater at BFCA. Then it becomes a fun Pitt and Jolie show.
I think that Timothy Spall can still surprise for a best actor nomination. That is the one category that might surprise. I however feel that in addition to Keaton, Redmayne and Oyelowo Benedict Cumberbatch is also in. It is that fifth slot which is going to be a real dogfight. Will Jake Gyllenhall, Ralph Fiennes, Steve Carell and Spall do any campaigning I wonder?
I cannot even understand why a picture like Boyhood is so certain of winning – I think it’s a very fine film, but miles away from being the best. It would maybe end up in my top-10 but … it feels like a long documentary and the plot is nothing special. What is the most special thing to me is the timeframe of photography. Besides that, yeah Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette were good, but storywise … I simply cannot see anything so important and special. The script for Interstellar is much more interesting and better to me. But … another Oscar year is ruined for me because this is set in stone: Boyhood will undeservedly win, and I hate that.
Why is Whiplash falling out of the picture??
“In the years I’ve been watching the Oscar race I have never seen such a stark disconnect between Academy voters and the rest of the ticket buying public out there.” – Um, 2008?
K. Bowen, I would say 2009 as well:
Avatar – $749,766,139
The Hurt Locker – $17,017,811
Unless you’re refering to 2008 because The Dark Knight was not even nominated for Best Picture.
“In the years I’ve been watching the Oscar race I have never seen such a stark disconnect between Academy voters and the rest of the ticket buying public out there.”
Um, 2008?
Paddy,
It still doesn’t matter that much. Each ballot will be placed in at most two piles, their first choice or another choice on their list.
Around 60% of the ballots (using 2012 and 2013 results) will go into the first pile (their first choice) and remain there. The others will be redistributed to the next eligible film on their list and end its run there. If there was not a lot of initial love for an independent film with first round votes, most redistributed ballots will remain with the more obvious selections and not something unusual or surprising.
Having ten ballot selections versus five would not change the final results by anything more than a few votes here or there.
Sasha- glad to see I wasn’t the only one disappointed by Bridesmaids being excluded from the Best Picture club in 2011; sure, it’s 2 nominations for Supporting Actress (Melissa McCarthy) and Original Screenplay were welcoming, but it’s inclusion in the Best Picture race would have heightened the 2011 roster by a mile.
I say this year will be a quiet lineup for Best Picture- 7-8 range.
Currently I have-
BEST PICTURE
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Selma
The Theory of Everything
SLIDING IN 9TH & 10TH BASE
Into the Woods
American Sniper
JUST DON’T SEE IT HAPPENING
Foxcatcher
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year
Unbroken
@Scottd That was actually one of the things I loved about the movie as well; how the relationship between DuPont and Mark Schultz was very ambiguous. I believe that part, Carell conveyed very well. What disappoints me is how unbelievable this movie could have been. In the end, I just think Carell did not completely lose himself in the role. As if he was worrying too much about the mimicry, that he forgot to breathe life into his character.
@Mike I’m glad you appreciated the various elements of it, in spite of Carrell. I enjoyed his role; I admit it that what he did with it is something many fine actors could do. Obviously a 180 degree turn from his comedy, but nonetheless nothing earth shattering.
The direction really stood out for me, in particular. Movies with dark themes like that, and minimal “action” to progress the story require a really deft attention to pacing and detail. As a gay guy I also loved that Du Pont’s inclinations were presented as matter of fact looks, gestures, etc. He wasn’t a cliche “creepy gay guy” he as just a creepy guy.
Just saw Pride yesterday, and I would say it may be THE ONE this year. The film has such a Oscar vibe, and I’m pretty certain it will get a hell load of nominations if it’s made in the U.S. with American stars.
Well of course, Still Alice is maybe a bit obvious, but I don’t see people mentioning Ida.
So I think we should look at it like this in order to find the Philomena,Tree of Life, etc: –> Honestly my first thought, Still Alice.
No1: Exlude the SAG nominees
No2: Predict the PGAs. (My opinion – Foxcatcher gets the PGA, Mr. Turner doesn’t. Already a point for Mr. Leigh)
No3: Predict Eddies: Who hasn’t got a chance for the editing stuff? Still Alice? Yeah there you go.
Think about all the films that have no chance in those lineups. And they have to be films, people will pick up during the holidays to see.
– Mr. Turner (To be honest, not a very exciting prospect for a Christmas evening, probably not the priority in screeners pile. Although old members might dig it)
– Still Alice (My god if a film is supposed to be about getting old, take this one. Moore is young but basically she’s getting old, she is Julie Christie, her sickness makes her a woman aging, entering her old days, just a bit too early)
– Ida (The Amour – in the foreign, black/white, serious way – of this year. It might get to people, it has the conversation around it, why not check it off? If you have 5 spots, you’ll choose the ones that you need to have nominated for sure, and take the liberty of using one last spot for a “ah what the heck” choice. The Great Beauty barely missed out.
Paradoxically, (and I said it first 😉 ) I’d say that the probability is from bottom to top. If Ida or Still Alice gets in I will write a massive “I told you so!!!” comment.
Gustavo H.R. — will you do it for us regardless?\
I have a hunch that after those older members slide their Boyhood DVD’s in and fight to stay awake by hour #3,
Selma is going to sneak right past it for the win.
ScottD, I saw Foxcatcher for the second time early today, because I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE Bennet Miller’s two previous films- Truman and Moneyball. So I gave it a benefit of the doubt and went to see it again after not really enjoying it the first time around: I walked away raving about Ruffalo and thought Channing Tatum was fine. I gained more appreciation for Channing Tatum’s performance, Miller’s direction, the screenplay, the mood, the eerie silence that haunts the movie… everything I ended up loving much more with the exception of Steve Carell’s performance. After seeing it the second time around, I have come into conclusion that Carell’s overtly creepy characterization of John Dupont almost ruined the movie. What could have been a powerful portrayal of a man who has lived a very sad life became the Steve Carell “Creep Show.” It was borderline one-dimensional, and almost, but not quite as bad as Stanley Tucci’s performance in Lovely Bones.
This is an amazing post, thanks Sasha!
Foxcatcher is my pick for “best movie no one seems to be talking about” (aside from you all here, of course), and I’m gonna be so annoyed if it misses the cut while some “movie you feel” makes it in.
Rob, Sasha’s argument – which I agree with – regarding the switch from ten slots per ballot to five concerns the nature of the choices voters are likely to make in each scenario. With ten slots, they have more scope to favour less conventional Oscar material, such as indie films, animations and sci-fi films. With five, they think less riskily, choosing instead to ensure that their vote counts toward a more traditionally reputable, prestigious choice by filling their ballot with five such films.
So, an Academy member might have ranked Under the Skin in fifth,higher than The Imitation Game in sixth, on their ballot with ten slots this year, but with five they may have been less inclined to see their vote spent on a film like Under the Skin, which would shake the Academy up a little too much for some members’ liking, and which might not even have gotten a nomination in the end. So, they might jettison that film entirely and pick The Imitation Game for their fifth place choice instead.
Another great read; and I love the tying in of the holidays and the Mary Bailey et al reference. Now i can’t get that wretched Neil Diamond song outta my head.
Arnold Schwarzenegger tweeted that he cried right through the credits of AMERICAN SNIPER. Jane Fonda tweeted about it too.
https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/547078605772046336
https://twitter.com/Janefonda/status/546774843669368833
Maybe that’s a heart light movie? Otherwise, I’d pick THE LEGO MOVIE.
I really think the biggest strike against Dragon Tattoo was that the Swedish version was at least as good (if not better) and released only two years prior. For those who’d seen Noomi Rapace and company, Fincher’s version likely just seemed redundant.
Tree Of Life’s nomination wasn’t a surprise — there were certainly enough in the ‘Malick is a genius’ camp to account for the 5% of the Academy vote necessary for a spot in the BP field.
So, I got curious. How many times has Best Picture and Best Lead Actress matched up. Since the beginning, only 12 times. Unless I missed one.
Janet Gaynor, Wings – 1929
Claudette Colbert, It Happened One Night – 1935
Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld – 1937
Vivien Leigh, Gone with the Wind – 1940
Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver – 1943
Louise Fletcher, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest – 1976
Diane Keaton, Annie Hall – 1978
Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment – 1984
Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy – 1990
Jodie Foster, The Silent of the Lambs – 1992
Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love – 1999
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby – 2005
Sasha, I’ll fuck my ass with a broomstick and post it on PornoTube if Gone Girl isn’t nominated for Best Picture.
——————-
I still think Mr. Turner will surprise lots of people with nominations in Best Picture, Directing, Writing and about three below-the-line categories. They love Leigh. Remember Vera Drake!
Oh yeah, Bradley Cooper’s a charmer on talk shows. Smart, funny, engaging and self deprecating. Never hurts.
I still don’t understand why there isn’t more talk of nominating Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood for Best Lead Actor. Boyhood is the front-runner, and he’s the centerpiece.
Best Picture & Best Actor =
Gladiator, Russell Crowe
The King’s Speech, Colin Firth
The Artist, Jean Dujardin
So it’s only happened 3 times for wins, but Ellar doesn’t need to win, just get nominated.
Best Picture & Nomination for Best Actor
A Beautiful Mind, Russell Crowe
Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood
The Hurt Locker, Jeremy Renner
12 Years a Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor
So, in the last 14 years, it’s happened half the time where Best Picture gets a Best Lead Actor nomination. Why not Ellar and Boyhood…
“I’m pretty sure Keaton, Redmayne and Oyelowo are all in. The last two spots as far as I’m concerned are up for grabs”
Nick, I agree with you. I could see Bradley Cooper or Ralph Fiennes or Jake Gyllenhaal.
Yeah, it’s interesting how the game is played now. You have those few films most voters agree are the 4 – 6 best, but since 9 has been the new 5, it’s trying to predict those last 3 that’s been so tough.
1st 6:
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Next 3:
Gone Girl
Unbroken
Whiplash
The the Amour/Tree of Life/Philomena in the crowd:
Still Alice
Sasha,
I really don’t think that switching from 10 to 5 slots for voting has a noticeable impact on anything. With the new system, there are only two resorting of the ballots—one from the surplus rule and one from earning <1% of the votes.
In last year's simulated ballot three films qualified as a first round nominee: 12 Years, Gravity, and Wolf of Wall Street. Only Gravity and 12 Years triggered the surplus rule. Those ballots were redistributed. Only 7 out of the 1119 ballots did not go to another eligible film listed as their #2–#5. 5 of those 7 had all 5 nominee slots listed. So approximately 0.4% of the ballots did not get reallocated to any of its #2–#5.
For the second round, 4% of all 1119 ballots were discarded at this point excluding those ballots that did not use all 5 slots. 20 films survived, including all 9 nominees. Even Philomena at #18 had 50% more votes going into the second round than the film with the most number of ballots eliminated The Great Beauty.
It's hard to imagine those 4.4% (approximately 48 votes) coming into a significant play for those below the threshold of 5% of all ballots, when most would probably be distributed to the final round leaders Inside Llewyn Davis, Before Midnight, and Captain Phillips.
I’m with Steve. There are plenty of emotional films this year, so I doubt they’ll go for an extra one, unless they pick something like Wild, which seems to fit the profile.
When it comes to the Oscars, I always say “watch out for Mike Leigh”…
Might American Sniper come across as too pro-military?
I was thinking the same thing, Bryce, when I watched Cooper last night. Add the subliminal cred he’ll gain with his B’Way work in The Elephant Man to what looks to be an actual performance in Sniper – wouldn’t surprise me if he gets in. His love (almost obsession) of Lynch’s film made his stock go way up for me.
Sasha, I’m wincing when I see Tree of Life and Amour mentioned in the same sentence as Philomena and Extremely Loud, but I get your point. Finding this years Tree of Life is impossible because it probably doesn’t exist. I’m waiting for Goodbye to Language, which will probably be the closest thing, structure-wise.
I think probably the current leaders each have enough “heart-pull” on their own and it will come down to whichever one the voters empathize with the most: Imitation/Theory/Selma/Boyhood
I just saw the second trailer for American Sniper. And holy crap does Bradley Cooper look good. I’m really surprised he’s been snubbed as much as he has. I guess that’s a testament to how competitive this year’s best actor race is. But I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see him or American Sniper make the cut. And am I the only one who thinks Cumberbatch is vulnerable? I’m pretty sure Keaton, Redmayne and Oyelowo are all in. The last two spots as far as I’m concerned are up for grabs.
“Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to find the Amour/Tree of Life/Philomena in the crowd.”
I suspect that’ll either be Foxcatcher or Mr. Turner this year.
I was watching Bradley Cooper on Charlie Rose and he’s an splendid speaker, as if we didn’t already know this. Eastwood is Eastwood and looking at the reviews, it seems like AMERICAN SNIPER might be “good enough” to be a “surprise” in a number of categories come nomination morning. Cooper in Best Actor in a late surge (a la Christian Bale) would not surprise me in the least at this point. I guess I shouldn’t skip it like I did with JERSERY BOYS, uh?
By the way, has anyone taken a peek at SELMA’s rotten tomatoes score? And after you do make sure you check out my final predictions which I made weeks ago.