“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.” – Charles Dickens
The Oscar year started out with a handful of Oscar pundits choosing preordained “Oscar movies” to land in the Best Picture race. Though no one really reported on it in any serious way, some questioned how they could pick movies for Best Picture no one had even seen. On paper, these films all had what it takes to be an “Oscar movie,” that is, they seemed designated not just for Oscar voters but for the public.
The prominent pundits in the field faithfully put alternating titles in the number one spot based just on the concept art, the subject matter, the studios and the stars involved. To make room for these films they would mostly shut out other films that were actually doing well in the year, films that could be called best by anyone’s standards, but they were considered not Oscar-y enough and thus, out they went to make room for films people had not yet seen.
On the flipside of that, Indiewire’s Anne Thompson heroically stood, taking a stand against what Oscar pundits were doing. The notoriously ethical Thompson said she wasn’t going to predict films that hadn’t been seen and would instead work from a list of films that had been seen and were good enough to get in. In so doing, she single-handedly kept alive the season’s big surprise, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and the season’s other big surprise, Whiplash.
The pundits did not let go of their claim that these big year-end movies would make it in. In years past, their mixed to bad reviews might have kept them out of the race when they were finally seen but instead, the studios managed to hold off the critics just enough to get the movies to the public and once that happened, the money started flowing in, the films suddenly look like viable contenders after all and no one seems to notice that they were poorly reviewed. The system confirms itself. The system works.
2014 might indeed mark the moment the Oscar race once again stopped caring about the critics. When the National Society of Film Critics themselves don’t care about critics, how can anyone expect anyone else to care? The NSFC picked Goodbye to Language, which just edged out Boyhood, to win. They picked a film that has a 72% rating on Metacritic, which is on the way low end of the films they’ve chosen in years prior:
Inside Llewyn Davis–92
Amour — 94
Melancholia–80
The Social Network — 95
Hurt Locker–94
Waltz with Bachir –91
There will be Blood — 92
Pan’s Labyrinth–98
Capote–88
Million Dollar Baby — 86
American Splendour–90
The Pianist –85
Mulholland Drive — 81
Yi Yi — 92
That choice is so utterly balls-out off the charts of the awards race it reads, to me, like a revolutionary battle cry to never want to be in the chokehold of the yucky Oscar race ever again. It also tells me that the face of film criticism has been greatly altered in the past few years as the best film critics have been shunted aside and replaced by people who really aren’t film critics.
With the critics mostly out of the way, the Oscar brand can get back to the business of being the Oscar brand – a mirror reflection of a bygone era that exists only to reflect back at itself. The Oscar Movie is a concept the public both buys into and utterly dismisses the way they would a playlist handed to them by their grandparents of groovy tunes to play on the airplane.
What people think of when they think about the Oscar brand is a typical year like 1980, when Kramer vs. Kramer beat Apocalypse Now. There is no question which film has stood the test of time, which was the work of a visionary genius, and which one, when you look up ‘great’ in the dictionary, there’s its picture. There’s Robert Duvall crouched over a field of napalm. There’s the Dallas Cowboy cheerleader strutting onto the stage. There’s crazy General Kurtz, a transformed god. But the Oscars and the public were far more inclined towards the movie about the single dad and the feminist mother who felt suffocated in the confines of her domestic life. It was the movie for the year where the public was concerned. The Academy rewarded it for that.
Coming out of the 1970s, the era of the auteur director and truly mind-blowing cinema that bled into the Oscar race, was really the last time the Academy hummed. The feminist movement, the sexual revolution, the Manson family, Richard Nixon – it was all bleeding into what the artists were doing, the changing of the guards, as it were. But the 1980s and into the 1990s, things started to look very different. Steven Spielberg and George Lucas redefined the ways movies were made, seen, and rolled out. The blockbuster was born and it would change everything about Hollywood.
Where before, the Oscars cared much more about whether the public liked a movie, the public began flocking to movies that had numbers after their titles and were based on brands and comic books. Fan sites were born in worship of these films and slowly but surely those fan sites took over the dialogue about film and pretty soon there wasn’t a lot of difference between fandom and film criticism. The Oscars had no choice but to reject what the public was mostly buying tickets for and to grapple for anything resembling the Oscar brand. They got their wish in the form of independent cinema and foreign film directors making films Oscar voters can tolerate. The catch — movies like that really need the critics standing behind them.
Years like 2010 and 2012 are rare – when the studios are putting out movies the public and the critics and the Oscar voters like. Movies like Gravity and Zero Dark Thirty and Argo and American Hustle and Lincoln and Life of Pi. There was harmony in that and thus, awards consensus was a no-brainer. But this year, there is a dramatic splintering between what the public liked (Guardians of the Galaxy, Hunger Games) and what the critics liked (Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Goodbye to Language, The Immigrant) and the Oscar brand (Unbroken, American Sniper, Into the Woods, Interstellar). There isn’t much harmony across all of them with the possible exception of Gone Girl, not a critics darling, not quite an Oscar brand but kind of, sort of in the ballpark of hitting all three notes.
But even Gone Girl, at this rate, seems destined to be shoved aside for the Oscar brand. Those movies are making money. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be regarded as successes and they wouldn’t be worthy for Best Picture nominations. But when films that the critics don’t think are best are declared best by the public and the Oscar brand you invite criticism for a group that supposedly rewards highest achievements in cinema, not just movies the public bought tickets for.
Tomorrow the Producers Guild will announce their ten choices for Best Picture of 2014. We don’t know which Oscar tale it will tell. We don’t even know if the Oscars will follow suit. The Screen Actors Guild, Editors Society, and now the Producers Guild, are the only major guilds that will announce while Oscar ballots are still outstanding. The most important, or certainly what used to be the most important, the Directors Guild, doesn’t announce until after Oscar ballots are turned in.
What won’t have an impact on Oscar voting for nominations this year?
The DGA
The WGA
The BAFTA
Here is how the films break down so far. I’ve bolded the nominees I think most likely–but honestly, any of these could get in. We just don’t know yet how it will finish.
Films that, so far, unite the public, the critics and the industry:
Gone Girl ($166 mil)
The Grand Budapest Hotel ($59 mil)
Nightcrawler ($31 mil)
Films that unite the critics and the industry but don’t seem to need the public (so far anyway) — in limited release:
Birdman ($25 mil)
Boyhood ($24 mil)
Foxcatcher ($7 mil)
Whiplash ($5 mil)
Selma ($2 mil)
Mr. Turner ($983k)
A Most Violent Year ($300k)
Films that are strong with public, maybe strong with industry, not as strong with critics – OSCAR BRAND:
Interstellar ($182 mil)
Into the Woods ($91 mil)
Unbroken ($87 mil)
The Theory of Everything ($24 mil)
Wild ($24 mil)
The Imitation Game ($7.9 mil)
American Sniper ($2 mil so far)
It should be said that some of these films have vastly different stories to tell, critics wise, depending on which site you visit. I am not quite sure where to put them. Here is how they break down:
Wild – Rotten Tomatoes = 91% Rotten Tomatoes, 72% Metacritic
The Theory of Everything = 81% Rotten Tomatoes, 72% Metaticic
The Imitation Game = 91% Rotten Tomatoes, 72% Metacritic
So you see, 2014 is a strange year. To my mind, it marks the first time I’ve seen in a long while that the preordained Oscar movies are probably going to be in the race, whether they are good enough or not. The only reason that matters from my perspective is that I can no longer make the argument that Anne Thompson was right in not predicting films she nor anyone else had yet seen. I think she is morally right. I think it’s better for film overall, better for the Oscars — but it isn’t right. The more cynical approach by the pundits that the Oscar brand will prevail no matter what. And so it goes.
But we’re still talking about only the nominees. The Best Picture winner will likely not be decided by any one thing. It will be decided by what film stands apart from the others and unites the consensus. Though Boyhood is a “small” film, it is an extraordinary film that, when people finally do see it, they will marvel at. A film like that doesn’t come around very often and won’t likely be forgotten any time soon.
Predictions
Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Selma
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
Whiplash
The Theory of Everything
Alts — Nightcrawler , Unbroken
My thing is, I feel like American Sniper and Unbroken might get in. I just don’t know which film gets bumped. Oh, probably Gone Girl but that’s a reality I just can’t face yet. I can’t face a Best Picture lineup that is 100% about the male protagonist, as the AFI foretold. I can’t see women being obliterated from the Oscar race. I just can’t. Not yet.
Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
David Oyelowo, Selma
Alts–Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Alt. Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Supporting Actor
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alt. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Emma Stone, Birdman
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Alt. Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
Alt. Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel, Damien Chazelle, Whiplash, Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Original Screenplay
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro Inarritu et al, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Paul Webb, Selma
Alt. Phil Lord & Christopher Miller (The LEGO Movie) *
Adapted Screenplay
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Paul Thoman Anderson, Inherent Vice
Anthony McCarten, The Thoery of Everything
Nick Hornby, Wild
Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
Gone Girl
Whiplash
The Imitation Game
Cinematography
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
Interstellar
Production Design
Interstellar
Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Alt. Unbroken
Sound Mixing
Into the Woods
American Sniper
Get on Up
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Sound Editing
Whiplash
American Sniper
Big Hero Six
The Lego Movie
Guardians of the Galaxy
Costume Design
Into the Woods
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Selma
Original Score
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Theory of everything
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Still on this Jennifer Aniston quick, huh? I saw the film. There was just no journey she took. I’d put Amy Adams in the 5th slot. Doesn’t really matter though considering how stellar Julianne Moore’s performance was – she will win. Boom.
I predict Selma will win Best Picture and also get ACtor Sup Actress nods and a spossible Sup Actor for Wilkinson
Have a feeling that American Sniper will get Picture and Actor nod s and possibly director. I do not think Jennifer Anniston will get a nod it will either go to Marion Cottiland (sp) Amy Adams or Shailene Woodly
True dat Antoinette – times they are a changin. But it’s not just the Academy, it’s also that blockbuster-franchise logic has thrown off the entire idea of prestige films. Quality movies are a weird water planet spinning around a black hole now…
I enjoyed The Imitation Game, but, in all honesty, I saw nothing particularly exceptional about it. I will be shocked if I remember much of it two years from now. i am equally astonished that the actors are getting such play. They were all beyond adequate, but none of the roles were in any way taxing.
The biggest snub to me, though, is that Ralph Fiennes isn’t getting play for his incredible performance in The Grand Budapest Hotel. I imagine there are few actors out there who could play such an over-the- top role with true sincerity as he did.
I have no idea what year it was officially released, but I also think that Frank deserves a best original screenplay nod.
i have the same actors and actresses, even though i don’t see Ms Streep sneak in, my pick would go to either Laura Dern or …..Naomi Watts
Best Picture :
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Selma
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Unbroken
Nightcrawler
Director :
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
The Academy has its own mind. Why should they have to listen to critics? Based on your aticle too, I would say that critics darlings get nominated every year making up almost half of contenders: 12YAS, Gravity, Her, Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, etc… To me, making claims about whether predictions by bloggers set the list of nominees is highly specious given no real data.
Okay, so I have a serious question – how are we defining “film critic”. Is it someone who is hired and published in a “traditional” newspaper/magazine outlet (be it online or print)? Because the reality is that anyone can be a critic – there isn’t a “School for Film Critics”. I mean, you can earn a degree in Film Studies or Journalism but it’s really all subjective (see http://education-portal.com/articles/Become_a_Film_Critic_Education_and_Career_Roadmap.html). For instance, there was a critic for the Globe and Mail in Toronto who hated EVERYTHING he’s ever seen, except Slumdog Millionaire, so no one really took his reviews seriously (I think he’s still writing for them actually). That doesn’t make his critique of a movie better than anyone else’s. Like Anton Ego says in Ratatouille “In many ways, the work of a critic is easy. We risk very little, yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment. We thrive on negative criticism, which is fun to write and to read. But the bitter truth we critics must face, is that in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so.”
Finding the BEST is a hard thing. Do I think Boyhood is great? Yes. Am I fine with it winning a lot? Yeah. Do I think that its so far ahead of everything else that it should be winning majority votes everywhere. Heck no.
A lot of films this year are having divisive reactions. But the positive end of those divisive reactions are going to produce more results than something that seems generally acceptable/good like a Theory of Everything, persay.
I agree with Steven. When a film doesn’t win an award it isn’t a total negation of that film’s merits!! A non-win isn’t a snub.
Sasha, if Boyhood lost to Goodbye to Language by only a vote (or something like that) then that doesn’t indicate the NSFC doesn’t care about the Oscar race. If ONE VOTE means the difference “between caring and not caring” then you’re generalizing at best. Otherwise very good piece. I can see American Sniper getting in but I’m still convinced Unbroken will be left out completely.
Though its not the Best of the Year for me, I agree with Benutty. The Imitation Game was much better than I thought it would be going in. Im fine with its stance as one of the 3 or 4 ordained BP contenders.
I was so turned off by everything I had heard/known about The Imitation Game that I dogged it and even refused to see it. This weekend I finally balled up and saw it and, well, it’s hands down one of the best films I saw this year. Oops. It’s so much smarter and gayer than I keep hearing online. Just because the sex part of Turing’s life isn’t shown, there is so much intellectual meat in the script that addresses both literally and metaphorically what it meant to be gay when and where Turing was.
Brilliant, brilliant writing and performance by Cumberbatch. I’m no longer upset it keeps showing up on lists, nominations, etc.
@ Sasha,
by stating that the NSFC simply doesn’t care about the critics by snubbing Boyhood in picture is a bit like propaganda for political correctness and consensus voting. Who cares if most critics have given positive reviews to Boyhood? I’d prefer the critics to actually go for a film they’re passionate about. Yes, many critics don’t like it. But many adore it and the passion should count more than going the easy way and select something everybody could be okay with, though many won’t feel they are voting for what they really like.
Here’s my weekly reminder that the entire membership of 6000 Academy members does not have to suffer a massive widespead breakdown of taste in order to think a mediocre movie is good enough for a Best Picture nomination.
I don’t know where you get your information from, Mister. But I have it on good authority that all 6000 members of the Academy cast their votes simultaneously from one very large clown car.
4 films are in for BP: Birdman, Boyhood, Imitation Game, and Selma. Sasha is right to have those as her “top 4″ because those are in. Snubbing any of them would be Dreamgirls-like shocking…not gonna happen.
And yet the Dreamgirls snub did happen.
Honestly if the Oscars were the awarding body I remember, then INTERSTELLAR and INTO THE WOODS would be locks. That both only have a slight chance this late in the game shows how much they’ve changed. It’s not just that the pundits have made it so. It’s that they’ve done it based on the way Oscar has gone in recent history. DREAMGIRLS was probably the snub that signaled the beginning of this sea change. This year if they went with their own Oscar brand then those four films would be in jeopardy. But I think they broke their brand a ways back.
regarding the waxing philosophical part of the blog piece….. studios can buy independent dramas for a dime on the dollar. The market is awash with movies, good movies that barely get distributed. They are becoming like novels – so many of them they are like litter (novelists used to be celebrities, public intellectuals). When one of the lucky ones gets released, it’s rare for it to get much PR investment – not that much skin in the game to begin with. If they spend $150M to make a film they will spend that much on publicity. If they buy a film for $4M and give $4m in publicity, it’s niche……
Finally saw The Imitation Game. The odd thing about it is that it seems solid most of the way. But whenever it needs to step up for a Big Movie Moment, it kinda disappoints. The big Eureka moment, for instance, plays like slapstick comedy. It’s a bad scene. Cumberbatch is fine, but Knightley owns every moment she’s in. It is definitely better than the other comfort food choice, The Theory of Everything.
Love how unpredictable the race is this year, so much so that the Huffington Post published this article the other day titled “One Of These 21 Movies Will Probably Win Best Picture At The 2015 Oscars”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/02/best-picture-2015-oscars_n_6406642.html
This is going to come across as really polemical, Sasha, and I don’t mean it to, as I respect your site and your criticism and your general raison d’etre so much – but I don’t understand championing a movie (Gone Girl) because it “stars” a woman, when said movie does as much damage to women’s lib as any this year or in any recent.
but I don’t understand championing a movie (Gone Girl) because it “stars” a woman, when said movie does as much damage to women’s lib as any this year or in any recent.
Danny surely you have to be aware that your impression of the harm or benefit Gone Girl does to “women’s lib” is your own impression and not shared by everyone.
I’ll go a really stern step past that: ANYONE who changes his view of “women’s lib” based on ANY movie is too weak-minded for me to put much stock in his views about anything.
Feminists have come quite a long way since the days when men wrote them off as women’s libbers.
Let me just ask you point blank, Danny. Were you a supporter of the feminist movement before you saw Gone Girl? After you saw Gone Girl did your support for feminist ideology waver and diminish?
If you answered ‘yes’ to that 2nd question, here’s a 3rd question: wtf is wrong with you, dude? 🙂
(I’m not beating up on you, Danny, because I hope to god you can tell me that you were able to watch Gone Girl and not let the depiction of one woman who’s a manipulative murderer make you turn against the whole concept of equality for all women. Please tell me I’m right.
You haven’t let Gone Girl turn you against the idea of equality for women, have you? Of course you haven’t. So please don’t worry about Gone Girl doing “damage” to “women’s lib” — that has not happened. Not in any way.)
Anne Thompson singlehandedly kept The Grand Budapest Hotel alive? Heck they should cut me a check. 🙂
Anne Thompson singlehandedly kept The Grand Budapest Hotel alive? Heck they should cut me a check.
I’m sure Anne has been richly compensated. No doubt about it. I could’ve had a piece of that action if I had been more assertive. I kick myself now.
I know that publicists and studios over-hype their movies towards Oscar nominations and wins but it seems to me that in 2014, this is rife. I don’t remember any other ear where so many Oscar noms have been awarded and “bought” because of bullshit campaigns, at the expense of so many legitimate and worthy nominees
Critics are not Academy members. Academy members are not critics. Neither really care what the other does. And all these discussions of: “well, I dont think this movie is getting in because it only has a 74 instead if a 77 and, well, so-and-so similar movie back in 2011 made it in with a 76 and” ……. bla bla blahhhhh. The Academy will like what they like and vote or will be urged for vote for what they think is the right thing.
The Imitation Game may have a 72 on Metacritic, but over on RT, 91% of critics – in general – feel that it makes the grade. Weinstein, Cumberbatch, and the increasing likelihood of it making $100 million or more makes it look pretty strong to me right now.
The Theory of Everything will receive a little GG/Oscar time boost for box office, but it wont be anything like The Imitation Game. Eddie Redmayne may win awards and, he is great, but I dont think its appealing to the public (or critics) AS much as The Imitation Game.
As for Selma, I cant quite tell yet what the heck is gonna happen yet with its Oscar noms OR box office. I hear some box office prognosticators saying it could make $80 mill and, to that I say, “wow”. I could see it stalling before that OR getting over $100 mill. Just cant get a grasp on that one. The public doesnt know DuVernay or Oyelowo. But they sure know MLK. As for its Oscar noms, can DuVernay get in? Will Oyelowo be a surefire nom or will late-breaking Cooper snag a spot? Is Jake Gyllenhaal solidified? Timothy Spall may have small, but ferocious support. Maybe Carrell is safe after all? Can Selma get that Original Screenplay nod in a sea of Original Screenplay contenders?
Birdman. No clue. Its done well to this point. Im sure itll have a little burst in box office before the end of the awards season. Is Keaton the favorite or will a nom be his reward? Actors (the largest branch) will go for it a lot, as will writers and cinematographers … Wouldnt that normally spell good things for its Best Picture winning prospects? I dont feel the heat right now, but Fox Searchlight knows a thing or two about second winds.
American Sniper … Its either going to BOOM onto the scene Oscar nom morning a la Letter of Iwo Jima … Or … It will have come on too late.
Unbroken. Honestly, aside from its OMG burst of box office around Christmastime and with a great CinemaScore, I think buzz has faded a bit already. Not sure if it can hold on to a BP spot. Lord knows it both the respect of many as well as the vitriol of many.
Interstellar. Great box office. Polarizing critical response. But the critics that love it, LOVE it. Should get good guild support and it will be in the thick of discussions for BP and many technical nominations. But, gosh, I dunno. AGAIN … It could miss or make it in with ease. This is a recurring theme with me and the potential BP noms this year — it just seems like so many could hit or miss. Only Boyhood, Birdman and Imitation Game feel lie surefire BP noms to me. And lastly about Interstellar … its Nolan. The Academy has yet to embrace him.
Gone Girl. Loved it. As mentioned by Sasha, it has a little of everything. Critics, box office, guild support. But it feels like a movie resting in that 5-10 section anyway. Perhaps thats due to the genre? That it came out 3 longgg months ago? Hoping for the best for it.
Into the Woods. Another odd duck. Decent reviews, great box office. An enjoyable movie. But even in a deemed “weak” year, does it have the passion to ignite enough votes for a BP nom. Les Miserables made it in in a stronger year, but THAT film seemed to have more passion and more Oscar baitiness about it; pedigree, narrative gravity.
The Grand Budapest Hotel. Must say, I am so pleased that this film got a second life after its release SO long ago. Great reviews, very impressive box office … one of the very few films to receive both this year.
Nightcrawler. Love that film. Love all the attention its been getting. Pretty good box office for a movie of this ilk. Would love a surprise nomination for Russo. But Im not convinced that all this critical/early guild support will translate to a BP nom. Time will tell 🙂
Whiplash, Foxcatcher … Whatever. Not whatever about their quality, whatever about their BP potential. I could see both making it in fine with devoted passion votes or both being too small/lost in the shuffle. The box office, particularly for Whiplash, has been less than impressive. Neither film will suffer for its box office letdown, but it sure wont help those films, either.
Boyhood. The favorite. Been that way for so long. Can it sustain?
— Those be my thoughts for now 🙂
“I’m wondering too how Unbroken had a chance with a 50% RT score. Would this be the lowest ever for a BP nominee??”
Weirdly, no. I think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has a 46% RT score.
– “I’m wondering too how Unbroken had a chance with a 50% RT score. Would this be the lowest ever for a BP nominee??”
– ”Weirdly, no. I think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has a 46% RT score.”
– ”The Academy will like what they like.”
Here’s my weekly reminder that the entire membership of 6000 Academy members does not have to suffer a massive widespead breakdown of taste in order to think a mediocre movie is good enough for a Best Picture nomination. All it takes to get a BP nomination is the support of 300-500 Academy members.
If there is anyone here who thinks it’s hard to find 300 filmmakers in Hollywood who have bland unsophisticated taste deep up their ass, I would say that you have not seen enough Hollywood movies.
===
“Have you been to college?”
“I didn’t go to high school. I am vastly uneducated.”
“Would you like to go back to school?”
“Absolutely not… “I like making movies, but that doesn’t mean I want to watch a black-and-white, freaking boring fucking silent movie.”
This person’s ballot counts as much as Scorsese’s ballot. Her name is Jennifer Lawrence. She thinks black and white movies are boring, and she gets to pick the “Best” movie of the year, every year, from now on, for the next 70 years, until she dies.
I’m wondering too how Unbroken had a chance with a 50% RT score. Would this be the lowest ever for a BP nominee??
More than the omission of Foxcatcher in Best Picture, I’m curious as to why Carell is no longer even her alt (6th place) in Actor. There was a time not so long ago that he was a shoo-in nominee. He’s hit all the markers so far; I just wonder why he would be the one singled out if there’s a change come Oscar nominations morning.
I love this race. Very unpredictable because of that three-way split Sasha mentions.
4 films are in for BP: Birdman, Boyhood, Imitation Game, and Selma. Sasha is right to have those as her “top 4” because those are in. Snubbing any of them would be Dreamgirls-like shocking…not gonna happen. They’re in and I also believe they’ll send 4 of the 5 Director nominees.
What’s great is that you can make a somewhat reasonable case for 10, count them, 10 films after those 4. And only 6 can make it (and probably no more than 5 will). I love that!
American Sniper
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s not counting Inherent Vice, A Most Violent Year, or Wild, which I still feel are sorta dark-horse-ish possibilities. But ok, let’s just say it’s those 4 and those 10. And none of the pundits really know which ones it will be!
I feast on their uncertainty for the next 10 days. YUM.
Jerry, that’s what I’m wondering too. If Les Miserables could get in with a score of 70 on RT and 63 on MC, then why not Into the Woods with a score of 71 on RT and 70 on MC? But Unbroken has a chance yet has 49 on RT and 59 on MC?
1) Why is Unbroken still being taken seriously, and Into the Woods is not? I personally think neither will be nominated, but Into the Woods at least has strong reviews and is being quite well received.
2) Why is Foxcatcher being left out? What has happened to merit that drop? My guesses:
1. Boyhood
2. Selma
3. Birdman
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Gone Girl
8. Whiplash
9. Foxcatcher OR American Sniper
alt: Into the Woods, Nightcrawler, Unbroken
Wait, how does Nightcrawler “unite the public, critics and industry” with only a $31M gross, and Theory Of Everything/Wild/Imitation Game get counted as “popular with the public” with their miniscule grosses, while the likes of Boyhood/Birdman are considered “unpopular with the public” with their comparable box office numbers?
THE IMITATION GAME is playing in less than 800 theatres and is already on its way to 30 million total. It has a decent shot at reaching the 100 million mark even BEFORE the Oscar ceremony.
WILD and ToE may have similar grosses to NIGHTCRAWLER, but you forget Dan Gilroy’s movie opened wide and then flundered quickly while the former two had a platform release and are still making money.
Context, dear anon, context. It matters.
I don’t know about American Sniper getting nominated. It could be another Invictus with its acting but not the film itself. I would put INTO THE WOODS in front of UNBROKEN.
Lou, hence the reason why the race gets boring.
Just noticed the American Sniper ad just above the contender tracker. Is he that good a shot that he can pick off crab lice at point blank range?
As you were.
I still don’t see how anything other than Boyhood wins. I’ve also been following the race for years, and other than ‘Crash’ the winner has always been “known”. I have to go as far as Shakespeare in Love for a truly shocking win.
Sometimes it’s hard for me to get whether some of Sasha’s predictions are really what she thinks, or are geared towards shaping the conversation and building a narrative. I don’t believe for a minute that she didn’t know that 12YAS was going to win last year, but she’s also aware of the danger of being the front runner. Besides, there’s not much to write otherwise.
The only truly interesting race this year, in my opinion, is best actor. Oh, and whether Gone Girl and Foxcatcher get in or if there is any out of left field nomination. Inherent Vice or something like that would be really fun!… not that they would change anything, but still.
I’m glad to see you are finally recognizing American Sniper’s potential. I can almost assure you this film is gonna make some serious money. Ads have been playing for the past three weeks on all the NFL games even though the film doesn’t come out for two more weeks. And it’s already setting box office records with the four screens it’s been playing on. I really hope Cooper gets an acting nom.
I think Mr. Turner will be nominated for best picture, director and actor.
I don’t think American Sniper will get nominated if Bradley doesn’t.
My guess is that Best Picture 2014 will go: Boyhood, Whiplash, Birdman, Selma, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Nightcrawler, The Theory of Everything (I hope!), and I don’t think Foxcatcher will get nominated so… Wild! 🙂
I think you can put INTO THE WOODS in the front of Unbroken and maybe American Sniper and Whiplash. This movie will be a hit in boxoffice for the next days, so should get some buzz.
When the National Society of Film Critics themselves don’t care about critics, how can anyone expect anyone else to care? The NSFC picked Goodbye to Language, which just edged out Boyhood, to win. They picked a film that has a 72% rating on Metacritic, which is on the way low end of the films they’ve chosen in years prior:
kk, so this is total bollocks. Goodbye to Language 3D is an immensely polarising film, to which far more have reacted extremely positively than at all negatively. Also, the film has an incredibly strong 96 rating on Critics RoundUp, which was taken from a total of 46 critics – the most reviews ever correlated for a single film in CRU’s history to date. Those critics are chosen based on the quality of their writing, not simply the popularity of their publication nor their reach. Sasha, Ryan, you’ve both found many faults with Metacritic on the past, but to bring up this film and claim that it represents the NSFC not caring about the critical consensus is fucking ridiculous. It’s one of the best-reviewed films of the year by critics who matter, not by fucking Rex Reed and David Denby and who the fuck cares else.
I do not understand the critical obsession with The Imitation Game. I thought the script was weak and the acting wasn’t particularly amazing.
I’m with you on that, CB.
“So their choice of Hurt Locker over Avatar was correct !”
Not in this or any alternate universe, it’s not.
In your alternate universe, Paul, maybe it’s not. In the real world, though, where people have sense and taste and intelligence, it sure is.
So it looks like this year the Oscar brand includes more female friendly movies than the critics. And the example of KRAMER VS. KRAMER and APOCALYPSE NOW. I mean apart from the playmates was there a female in APOCALYPSE NOW? Not REDUX, the real one. At least one of the Kramers was a female, the witch from INTO THE WOODS, even if she was hardly in it.
I personally have always preferred the Oscar brand. And it’s what I expect from them. The last few years have made me wonder what they were thinking. It wasn’t like them at all, imo.
I don’t see how Hilary Swank is an alternate, The Homesman looks like it drowned hard.
so what if Theory has those? A once ‘for sure’ best pic movie Foxcatcher has a ton of award noms all over the place and looks like it could miss out on an Oscar as well. Besides those noms for theory show me the RECENT buzz of it. Movies like Imitation Game, Grand Budapest, American Sniper are all seemingly being discussed WAY more than Theory. You think it will get a best pic nom. Fine. I don’t think it’s nearly as safe as you might. So the fuck what?
Wait, how does Nightcrawler “unite the public, critics and industry” with only a $31M gross, and Theory Of Everything/Wild/Imitation Game get counted as “popular with the public” with their miniscule grosses, while the likes of Boyhood/Birdman are considered “unpopular with the public” with their comparable box office numbers?
“So their choice of Hurt Locker over Avatar was correct !”
Not in this or any alternate universe, it’s not.
Um, The Theory of Everything is losing steam? In what universe? It already has nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and SAG Ensemble…how is this “losing steam?”
Great article, Sasha.
I think Selma hits all the bases here (critics, audiences, box office – it’s gonna do big numbers on wide release – at least $80 million on a $20 million budget. And Boyhood’s lower B.O. doesn’t hurt it so much because it’s not *supposed to* make big money. In fact, if it made $100 million it wouldn’t be film lovers’ little secret, would it?
I do not understand the critical obsession with The Imitation Game. I thought the script was weak and the acting wasn’t particularly amazing. The directing was a slight sepia tone and nothing truly noteworthy. The movie itself couldn’t focus, thematically, on anything, and just tried to check off all the boxes (resulting in that awful ending text crawl which tells you that it is, in fact, a Very Important Movie). A pretty weak movie, which is too bad because Turing’s life story, struggle, and tragic end deserved better than Benedict Cumberbatch trying to not chew scenery while doing just that.
You don’t even have Foxcatcher as an Alt. anymore?! That saddens me.
agreed with above. I think Theory of Everything is losing some serious steam and will be bumped when all is said and done. Unbroken won’t get in. American Sniper will.
I think Morten Tyldum will be nominated. I do not doubt reports that say The Imitation Game is playing very strongly with voters. A prestige British biopic that is already giving signals of becoming popular? I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being Boyhood’s only threat.
Regarding Best Actress, I still don’t see how Swank is more likely than Cotillard. Awards-wise, The Homesman seems to be deader than Saddam Hussein.
I’m starting to be a little less sure about Theory’s chances to Best Picture. I think it will get pushed aside by American Sniper or something.
Great article.
This year has seen too many pundits expecting a movie to blow them out of the water, and be a sure fire Oscar contender – then turning around and criticizing the film for not living up to those expectations, it’s so annoying.
I think people could be underestimating The Imitation Game. It’s made slightly more money than The King’s Speech did at this point-
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=kingsspeech.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=imitationgame.htm
I think if it can manage to sneak into best director it could be a threat for the win.
The Imitation Game is at 30.8M in the US. I think it will make it to 100M, there I said it.