Tonight, the BAFTAs will announce their nominees. But they, like the winners of the Golden Globes and the DGA will have no impact on how the Oscars are voted because their ballots are turned in tonight at 5pm.
The BAFTAs also have such a varied history it’s hard to gauge how influential they have been. For instance, they only changed their date to be before the Oscars in 2000. Secondly, two years ago they completely changed the way they vote on awards. They used to have everyone do the nominating and then each individual branch would vote on the winners. Now they’ve reversed it (I think). Each branch does the nominating and the whole voting body picks winners, which is how the Academy does it.
Last year, BAFTA nominations came out, once again, the same day as Oscar ballots where due, thus there could be no direct influence by them. This is how they went. They can, however, be indicative of what might be the “BAFTA SURPRISE,” that last little piece of the puzzle to throw everything out of whack.
What we know will be HUGE with the BAFTA to a deafening and threatening degree will be The Imitation Game. Though it doesn’t have a British director, it has a British hero at its center. It will do battle with The Theory of Everything in both Best Picture and Best British picture.
Last year’s BAFTA surprise was clearly Philomena. Its presence in the race popped up at BAFTA, then showed up in the Oscar nominations. There is so much crossover voting because … well … British people. Also, the British tend to make movies Oscar voters like — where the Americans are trying to work outside of that box.
The year before there wasn’t really much of a BAFTA surprise, except that Emmanuelle Riva won Best Actress but Jennifer Lawrence still won the Oscar.
This year we know we have The Imitation Game and Theory of Everything sewn up. What we don’t know is whether Mr. Turner will in fact make an appearance there or not, becoming the Philomena of this year. One of the things driving Philomena’s inclusion was that it was one of the more gently moving stories in the race. What a wonderful story, even if the film wasn’t roundly accepted by critics. It make an imprint on the heart, which is really what can drive these last minute inclusions. I don’t know if Mr. Turner does that. But maybe the fact that Turner is such a famous British painter and a source of pride, the BAFTAS this year might be All British All the Time with three, count ’em, three famous British men who really did greatly impact their culture and cultures throughout the world.
I don’t know if Mr. Turner will show up at the BAFTAS at all, or whether if it does that means it will then show up at the Oscars. This year seems to produce one question after another, after another. They’re coming eleven hours from now.
I suspect Best Picture will go like:
Boyhood
Birdman
Grand Budapest Hotel
Imitation Game
Nightcrawler or Theory of Everything or Gone Girl
British Film
Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Theory of Everything
The rest, I have no idea.
Hopefully Pride, Belle and Locke, Starred Upp and ’71 (although mainly just Jack O’Connell) get a decent showing as its undoubted that The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game (I think that former more so than the latter) and to a less extent Mr. Turner will.
Been a great year for British films and I think that the British Academy Films and Television Awards SHOULD recognise that.
LOL The one year I try to be unbiased …..EVERYTHING IS HAPPENING
The BAFTAs were more interesting in the old days … before they changed their calendar to try to predict and/or influence the Oscars. Some of their Best Films from the past include: ”Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid,” ”Day for Night,” ””Manhattan,” ”The Elephant Man,” ”The Killing Fields,” ”The Purple Rose of Cairo,” ”Goodfellas,” ”’Four Weddings and a Funeral” and ”The Full Monty.” …. I also don’t like the categories of Best Film AND Best British Film. It just seems provincial. I imagine Brit favorites ”The Imitation Game” and ”The Theory of Everything” will compete in both categories, giving BAFTA a chance to split the victories and spread the wealth. Imagine if the Academy Awards had categories for Best Film and Best American Film.
they will probably fall HARD for “The Imitation Game”, though, since they always seem to throw every single nom they can towards the big british player in the race, as opposed to the BEST one.
see “Fish Tank” – brilliant as it is – over “In The Loop” (our generation’s “Dr. Strangelove”, and it’s just as great), “The King’s Speech” over “Another Year”, well… the next year I can’t blame them because “Tinker Tailor…” was my #2 of its year, so cheers to them on that one, I can’t really blame them for awarding “Skyfall” as their British Film of 2012 because, well, it’s a British film that happens to be the 9th biggest film of all time so big on the brits! and last year they went with “Gravity”… which I guess IS a feat of British film production indeed…
I think I kinda shot myself in the foot with this comment, but I will post it regardless because ENTERTAINMENT!!!!!
=P
also, Whiplash is still the best film of 2014 (mic drop)
I thought Snowpiercer wasn’t released in the UK. So what will Swinton be nominated for?
The Brits don’t always vote for their own. Remember when Julie Christie lost to Marion Cottilard? But I don’t mind it when they award their own. They should celebrate their film industry. I was so happy they gave Carey Mulligan an acting award. And they gave an award to Jake for Brokeback Mountain, which was a lovely surprise. Hoping we’ll see curveballs at the BAFTAs this year. Let someone else besides Siimmons and Arquette get their awards.
as a brazilian who has a perfectly posh english accent and who has been told by every single british person he meets that he “is more english than [them]”, and as someone who, despite never having set foot in the UK somehow gets their thinking and culture better than his own (blame my british ex-girlfriend for that), I have always been very good at predicting the BAFTAs.
having said all that, I stand by Paddy’s predictions through and through. Maybe they’ll sneak Jack O’Connell in there, but that is pretty much what they’re likely to do.
and no complaints from me, btw. “Mr. Turner” is one of the very best films of the year and here’s hoping they acknowledge it as such!!!
Also, we haven’t seen Tyldum show up with HFPA, Critics Choice or win any of the various US critics groups’ Best Director awards. He’ll show up on the BAFTA ballot and then eventually the DGA and then on Jan 15 when they announce Oscar nominations. I just don’t envision him having a chance to win any of those, even if his film wins Best Picture. So if TIG takes BP, mark my words: another BP/BD split will happen and we can start seriously considering divorcing those two awards from one another (in terms of how Hollywood votes on them).
I think this will be a year when BAFTA voters realize that there is no short supply of quality British films with far-reaching appeal and will thus revert back to the days before they were considered a barometer for Oscar potential. Their voting will be very, very British. I could see Spall winning a BAFTA and not even being nominated for an Oscar. Nonetheless, Harvey and his “The Imitation Game” will be the biggest gainer of Oscar traction when these nominations are announced. I actually think this movie is much, much better than “The King’s Speech” and “Shakespeare in Love” but still has no business beating “Boyhood” for Best Picture.
This is gonna be bonkers. Glad I have no horses in this battle!
I will be happy ti sit corrected if it doesn’t occur, but i think many folk are overestimating Mr Turner’s Oscar chances. BAFTA too. His films are al most always divisive and BAFTA has shown in recent years that it has selective parochial sentiments, as have already been exampled. I think Spall will be overlooked Oscar nomination day.
tilda swinton should be showing up here.
Mr. Turner will do very well. This will be a year for Leigh just like the year when Vera Drake was nominated. That said, here’s what I see for Mr. Turner, and Oscar could learn something from it.
Best Picture; Best Director-Mike Leigh; Best Actor-Timothy Spall; Best Supporting Actor-Paul Jessen; Best Supporting Actress-Dorothy Akinson; Cinematography; Production Design; Costume Design; Makeup; screenplay; Score. Of Course, come Oscar, Mr. Turner should be a shoo-in for craft nominations, but there’s no reason that Spall should be overlooked, although his fellow Brits are in very American friendly films, and Mr. Turner, is as un-Hollywood as they come, so in a very competitive year, and more importantly, the fact that the Oscar voters no longer honor great performances, let alone have time to actually watch the films the way they did in the old days, the Mr. Turners of the world will only get respect from the critics. Also, I suspect Spall will win the Best Actor BAFTA if not the Oscar.
“When you have an award like the BAFTA, and one of the nominees in the acting category is British,that Brit WILL win hands down.”
This isn’t true, though. It’s the stereotype of what BAFTA does, not the reality. Obviously, BAFTA winners are going to be more Brit-centric than AMPAS winners, but stating that BAFTA will always award the Brit in an acting category is false. We just have to look back over the past three years for examples:
Last year, Barkhad Abdi won BAFTA Best Supporting Actor over Brit Michael Fassbender in the BP winner, 12 Years a Slave. Jennifer Lawrence won Best Supporting Actress over Brit Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine. Two years ago, Emmanuelle Riva won Best Actress over Brit Helen Mirren in Hitchcock. In Supporting Actress, Anne Hathaway won over Dame Judi Dench for Skyfall. Three years ago, Frenchie Jean Dujardin won Best Actor over Brits Fassbender and Oldman. American Meryl Streep won over Brit Tilda Swinton in Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress saw Octavia Spencer win over Brits Judi Dench and Carey Mulligan. The list goes on and on…
With that said, I do expect Best Actor at BAFTA to go to a Brit this year, but given that all the nominees with the exception of Keaton and maybe Gyllenhaal are going to be Brit, that’s not a big surprise.
Hardy makes it into this one. At whose expense, I don’t really care.
Hopefully Mr Turner and Pride make a good showing, but I’m afraid The Imitation Game has this easily.
BAFTA’s understandable hard-on for British cinema comes in two separate forms: the admirable and the embarrassing. This year, I’m predicting the former. I expect to see Pride garner several richly-deserved nominations, and I don’t see a Best Film lineup not consisting of Mr. Turner. In fact, like at the London Critics’ Circle, it has a legitimate shot at leading the nominations.
A Brit’s main category predictions:
Best Film
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Best Director
Ava DuVernay
David Fincher
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Mike Leigh
Richard Linklater
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch
Ralph Fiennes
Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne
Timothy Spall
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard
Felicity Jones
Julianne Moore
Rosamund Pike
Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke
Edward Norton
Mark Ruffalo
Andrew Scott
J. K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette
Marion Bailey
Carmen Ejogo
Keira Knightley
Imelda Staunton
Some very strong possibilities for BAFTA Surprises:
Actress:
Marion Cotillard – Two Days One Night
Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Belle
Supporting Actor:
Riz Ahmed – Nightcrawler
Supporting Actress:
Marion Bailey – Mr. Turner
Agata Kulesza – Ida
Imelda Staunton – Pride
Actor, I’d expect to be Cumberbatch, Spall, Redmayne, Keaton and Gyllenhaal, but if anyone’s going to surprise, it’s probably Hardy.
My conjecture is that The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything among a few others should be safe in Best Picture and Best British Film categories. And I do believe (feel) Mr. Turner (typically British to my non-native perception) will make a statement in several categories including Best Picture and Best British Film (nominations).
I don’t want to jinx the film Boyhood in particular (given a consensus and great support by a large number of our own AD readers), Hotel, or even Birdman, but — let’s say — Mr. Turner for instance might sneak in at the high cost of one of these three movies. (We’ll see.)
This moment of the season for me might be the best in the entire Oscar race . It’s when it switches from “all over the place” to “holy shit, it’s real”. Right now most if not every major critics’ group have given their awards, and all Guilds except a very important one have announced their nominations. In a short few days a quick one-two-three combo will make an Oscar race yet again very real. This the exact moment when it happens – first you get a set of nominations from another major film academy which is the BAFTA, then you get a first glimpse of the red carpet and actually see people holding statuettes for the first time at the Globes, and finally the DGA shows us a a short-list of five with the big BP winner amongst them. After that it’s simply just a diffrent race, still exciting, but sadly a lot less colorful.
Mr Turner will be huge, because Timothy Spall will win Best Actor 🙂
I’m be interested to see if they give Tom Hardy anything this time. Assuming that he’s eligible. It’s not like he’s from there or anything.
Yes, Gregoire, Imelda would be my pick too; maybe Bill Nighy too. But I don’t know how much of a showing the movie will have overall at BAFTA; but if it can’t make it there, it won’t make it anywhere!. My money is on Cumberbatch.
When you have an award like the BAFTA, and one of the nominees in the acting category is British,that Brit WILL win hands down.So the best actor winner will be likely to be either Eddie Redmayne,Benedict Cumberbatch or maybe even Timothy Spall.My best bet will be Michael Keaton,but if he loses this award,he’ll still win the Oscar.
Pride is going on the big lists. Best British Film certainly, with maybe even a nominated performance. (I’m thinking Imelda Staunton.) I’m rooting for Belle at the BAFTAs as well, since I think the Oscars will ignore it. Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Best Actress!
The Brits are going to have a hard time picking who wins best actor. You have Cumbie, Redmayne, Spall, Fiennes, and possibly Oyelowo.
I think Mr. Turner will be big (first real clue we probably underestimated it Oscar-wise) and there will be a surprise in Best Actress : Emily Blunt, Gugu Mbatha-Raw or Amy Adams (in that order).
I suspect love for “Pride” may be a bit of a surprise – but since CBS Films has the film domestically and has dropped the ball on Oscar campaigning, I don’t think it’ll carry over to Oscar in any way.