The Directors Guild will add their voice to the mix that will have no influence on Oscar voting, but could confirm the popularity of certain films. The DGA has roughly 14,500 members, where the Academy’s directing branch has around 400. No one really knows if this will be a year like 2012, where only two names landed on both lists, or if it will be a typical year, where four out of five or five out of five will land on both. It’s a year with a few popular films so far, and a year with a few outliers.
For the past four years, no American born director has won the Oscar in the directing category. That’s likely to change this year, with so many strong Americans in the race, chief among them, Richard Linklater, but also Wes Anderson, David Fincher, Ava DuVernay, Dan Gilroy, Bennett Miller and Damien Chazelle. The one non-American in the hunt is Alejandro G. Inarritu.
Because of the Oscar ballot disconnect, the role of Director in the Best Picture race has been diminished. Since 2012, Picture an Director have split – once Argo won without even needing a Best Director nomination, and since the Best Picture slate has expanded, the role of what used to dominate the Best Picture race has changed up a bit. On the plus side, that has allowed for “Best Director” to kind of exist as its own thing, and/or present itself as an opportunity to honor two films. Would that the Academy had thought that way in 2010, when The King’s Speech could have won Picture, while David Fincher took Best Director. Alas, back then, Picture and Director were linked.
This year there will likely be no split. I don’t buy the theory that’s being floated around that Boyhood will win Best Director while something else will take Best Picture. If it happens, it will be as surprising as Crash winning. If anything but Boyhood wins the SAG ensemble, that could set things up for an upset. The only two movies that might would be Birdman or Imitation Game. The former because it’s an actors movie and actors are really the reason splits happen. The latter because it’s “important.”
Nonetheless, here we are at one of our last major stops before Oscar nominations on Thursday. Here is how our readers are currently predicting the DGA to go:
The three strongest heading into the race would be Linklater, Inarritu and Anderson. The other two slots feel like they’re open. The common logic is that the Academy won’t pick the big name Fincher and will go for, instead, the littler movies that are driving so much of the nearly unanimously male vote: Whiplash and Nightcrawler.
The DGA isn’t as cock-centric as the Oscars. Think of how few women directors there are at all and you start to get an idea of what the Academy’s Best Director branch looks like.
But you might see something on the order of:
DGA
Linklater
Inarritu
Anderson
Fincher
Nolan or DuVernay
Oscar
Linklater
Inarritu
Anderson
Chazelle
Gilroy
I liked both Whiplash and Nightcrawler. They are worthy Best Picture contenders. But I’m way in for Fincher and DuVernay. For Fincher, it would be honoring this director’s most successful work in making what is easily one of the best films of the year. For DuVernay it would be making DGA and Academy history to go along with it being one of the best films of the year. I’m not sure either of these will get in for Oscar.
Meanwhile, the one thing I did discover in my chart building was that the Best Picture race can often be determined not by what films get nominated for Best Picture at the Globes or Critics, but by what gets nominated for Best Director. What I found is that the only film since Oscar expanded to get both Globes and Critics Choice for director was Clint Eastwood’s Invictus. Every other one that was named got in. If you add DGA to the pile it’s a slam dunk. That means, for this year, Best Picture is likely to include as your frontrunners:
Boyhood
Birdman
Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Selma
That’s five. Four other slots to fill. We’ll be putting up our nomination predictions, along with a quickie contest, later today.
Charts
FEATURE FILM AWARD DGA’S Site
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
2014:
| Inarritu, Birdman | Inarritu, Birdman | ||
| Linklater, Boyhood | Linklater, Boyhood | ||
| Anderson, GBH | Anderson, GBH | ||
| Fincher, Gone Girl | Fincher, Gone Girl | ||
| DuVernay, Selma | DuVernay, Selma | ||
| Angelina Jolie, Unbroken |
| Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity | Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity | Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity | Steven Spielberg, Lincoln |
| Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips | Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips | Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips | |
| Spike Jonze – Her | Alexander Payne Nebraska | Alexander Payne Nebraska | |
| Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave | Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave | Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave | Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave |
| David O. Russell – American Hustle | David O. Russell – American Hustle | David O. Russell – American Hustle | David O. Russell – American Hustle |
| Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street | Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street | Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street |
2012
| Steven Spielberg, Lincoln | Steven Spielberg, Lincoln | Steven Spielberg, Lincoln | Steven Spielberg, Lincoln |
| Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty | Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty | Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty | Benh Zeitlin, Beasts |
| Ben Affleck, Argo | Ben Affleck, Argo | Ben Affleck, Argo | Michael Haneke |
| Ang Lee, Life of Pi | Ang Lee, Life of Pi | Ang Lee, Life of Pi | Ang Lee, Life of Pi |
| David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook | Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained | David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook | |
| Tom Hooper, Les Miserables | Tom Hooper, Les Miserables |
2011
| Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist* | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+ |
| Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo* |
| Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants* |
| Stephen Daldry, Loud/Close | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris* |
| Steven Spielberg, War Horse | George Clooney, Ides of March | David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Terrence Malick, Tree of Life* |
| Refn, Drive |
2010
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Tom Hooper The King’s Speech | Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ | Tom Hooper The King’s Speech | Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ |
| David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network* |
| Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* |
| Danny Boyle, 127 Hours | David O’Russell, The Fighter | David O’Russell, The Fighter | David O’Russell, The Fighter* |
| Christopher Nolan, Inception | Christopher Nolan, Inception | Christopher Nolan, Inception | |
| The Coens, True Grit | The Coens, True Grit* |
2009
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ |
| Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious* | Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious* |
| Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* |
| Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Clint Eastwood Invictus | Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds* |
| Eastwood, Invictus | |||
| Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar* | Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar* |
2008
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog+ | Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog+ |
| Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* |
| Gus Van Sant, Milk | Sam Mendes, RR | Gus Van Sant, Milk | Gus Van Sant, Milk* |
| David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button* | David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button* |
| Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader* | Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader* |
2007
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ |
| Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Ridley Scott, American Gangster | Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Jason Reitman, Juno* |
| Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
| Joe Wright, Atonement* | Joe Wright, Atonement* | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
| Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd | Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
2006
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen* |
| Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* | |
| Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* | |
| Paul Greengrass, United 93 | Paul Greengrass, United 93 | Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine* | Paul Greengrass, United 93 |
| Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ | Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ |
| Bill Condon, Dreamgirls | Clint Eastwood Flags of Our Fathers | Bill Condon, Dreamgirls |
2005
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain* | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain * |
| George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* |
| Paul Haggis, Crash | Meirelles, Gardener | Paul Haggis, Crash | Paul Haggis, Crash+ |
| Woody Allen, Match Point | |||
| Ron Howard, Cinderella Man | Peter Jackson, King Kong | Bennett Miller, Capote | Bennett Miller, Capote* |
| Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich * | Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich * |
2004
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
| Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways* | Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways* |
| Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* |
| Taylor Hackford for Ray | Mike Nichols, Closer | Taylor Hackford for Ray | Taylor Hackford for Ray* |
| Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Mike Leigh for Vera Drake |
| Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ |
2003
| Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* |
| Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* |
| Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK+ | Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK+ |
| Tim Burton, Big Fish | Peter Weir, Master and Commander* | Peter Weir, Master and Commander | Peter Weir, Master and Commander* |
| Jim Sheridan, In America | Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain | Gary Ross, Seabiscuit* | Fernando Merielles, City of God |
2002
| Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese* |
| Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* | Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* | Pedro Almodovar |
| Alexander Payne, About Schmidt | Roman Polanski, The Pianist | Roman Polanski* |
| Spike Jonze, Adaptation | ||
| Rob Marshall+ | Rob Marshall, Chicago | Rob Marshall+ |
| Steven Daldry* | Steven Daldry, The Hours | Steven Daldry* |
