If there was anything worth taking away about last night’s Globe telecast it was the following:
1) Best Actor is still open — now down to Michael Keaton for Birdman and Eddie Redmayne for Theory of Everything. The SAG will likely decide it but Keaton’s speech was one for the ages.
2) Birdman was not as beloved with the HFPA voters as it might be with the industry overall but The Grand Budapest Hotel is very much beloved by both. Look for it to do very well at the Oscars, particularly in the design categories but perhaps in other categories, like Original Screenplay where it will go up against Birdman.
3) Jennifer Aniston had a lot of love in the room. Julianne Moore likely has this but Aniston is definitely in the running. Again, the SAG could be the decider. It feels like it’s finally Moore’s year and that’s a powerful motivator to vote.
4) Freedom of Speech is going to be the big thing at the Oscars. That, along with the In Memoriam tribute should make for an emotional night at the Oscars.
5) Because The Imitation Game and Gone Girl did not get any awards does not mean they are not popular with the industry. The Golden Globes are not the industry.
6) The surge of Selma will have no impact on the Oscars because ballots were turned in before the Globes telecast, but the love in the room was palpable. Selma will do just fine – what a speech given by Common and one of the more memorable moments of the night.
7) It’s still a wide open year. Even with Boyhood winning Picture and Director there is no telling if the Producers Guild and Directors Guild will follow suit. But probably we’re looking at a juggernaut on the level of The Artist, which can’t be stopped. We’ve been predicting Boyhood since the beginning of the season and have had no other film in the number one spot. The last time that happened I could not tell you. Arquette gave among the best speeches of the night, securing her frontrunner status; she has no challenger.
8) The biggest surprise of the night was Grand Budapest Hotel besting Birdman. It’s not that surprising, given the flavor of the HFPA — and the exotic, international flavor of the film. Birdman is much more American, more industry, less foreign press. We’ll have to see how that one plays out in the long run.
9) The race does seem to have a basic shape, at least for now, with only Best Actor and the Screenplay categories in question. Original will be very competitive between Birdman and Grand Budapest, while Adapted will have Gone Girl vs. The Imitation Game vs. Theory of Everything vs. Wild. Flynn deserves to walk away with the award but one never knows how this thing will go when people want emotional and mushy. That she adapted her own novel to the screen and will be the only female in all of Oscar history to do that (the others have adapted plays) that should count for a lot.
10) It was a night for Boyhood, putting it in that nervous-making spot where The Social Network was in back in 2010. It needs to win the bigger industry votes to take it all the way. Its heavy presence on a widely-watched television program will go a long way towards helping them make the final leap.
^^^
It might not be “necessary” to you, but the two are not mutually exclusive.
Nor do they often overlap in many cases.
@Martin Pal — my comments in AD in general is assessing the film’s appeal via the AMPAS’s voters lens, and not necessarily my own personal taste. TIG could be a very good film for some people, but for it to win the BP Oscar, it has to have a wider appeal or an undeniable social importance. For that, TIG is not the alternative choice for Boyhood’s juggernaut, in my estimation.
And again, my assessment’s for Boyhood’s eventual Oscar success is also measured against its critical appeal trajectory from the day it was released to this point. I think it’s sort of unnecessary for me to point out what *I* liked about it when I’m assessing its Oscar chances.
@ those who replied to my wanting to understand Boyhood’s appeal, you got sidetracked because I mentioned Michael Apted’s documentaries. Which isn’t really the point. Antoinette is right,
no one really answers the question of why Boyhood fascinates them so much. I’m not asking anyone to “defend” it. I’m simply trying to ask why it’s affected so many No one’s answered why they like it. I guess
no one needs to. We like what we like. Someone answered that they thought it unpredictable etc., when I thought it was totally predictable. Someone else said they’d explain it, but the haters wouldn’t get it. Just because I want to understand why so many like it, doesn’t mean I’m hating on you. It just means I’m interested in your opinions. If we want people to understand why we like a certain film, we also have to understand that it’s okay for others not to like it. I’m not always able to do that myself, but I try to think of films like items on a menu. It’s futile to try and get someone to like a meal that you do, but they do not. And we don’t really care about it. But films–we want people to like what we do. Odd, ain’t it?
Someone else wrote: “For people who don’t understand Boyhood’s appeal, you don’t have to. You just have to look at its trajectory to measure its wide appeal.”
I might not have to, but what’s wrong with telling me what appeals to you about it? In the name of understanding the wide appeal that I don’t happen to get. I also have a hunch that if this film had followed the sister and been called Girlhood, most of you wouldn’t have cared for it nearly as much, which is fine.
@ ALAN: “TIG [The Imitation Game] is very depressing, about a homosexual and not all that great.”
“About a homosexual?”
Anyway, eye of the beholder and all, I found it quite inspirational that someone with far superior talents used them to save humanity from further atrocities, even though singular atrocities were visited upon him. I found Cuberbatch’s performance, taking a person with decidedly unlikable personality traits and making hhim more human and letting us empathize with him, was quite a feat. Call me crazy.
While I love Linklater’s first 2 Before films (especially Before Sunset, which I found flawless), I wonder if the appeal of Boyhood would be as big without the 12-year production train.
Weak year for me: my favorites films this year were actually The Lego Movie and Guardians of the Galaxy.
T.
but I don’t think these haters would get it…
No really, go ahead. None of its defenders actually defend it. They just go “but 12 years tho”
Arquette wins. I loved her speech. I didn’t mind her reading either. At least it was obvious she meant what she was saying. And I agree, she added things – that Meryl Streep hug was a charming thing. And Arquette gets bonus points because she doesn’t act as if she wants too much. And Keaton wants it. Come on, the guy’s a jerk. Not that it should matter, but in the Oscar race it does. Just take a look at him during Naomi’s introduction of the film. He takes himself so seriously and that speech was a mess. Biggest problem, it wasn’t honest. I don’t like Redmayne’s performance, I prefer Keaton’s, but Redmayne’s speech at least it didn’t have that fake feeling attached to it. I’ve always had him at # 4, but take a look at Gwyneth’s reaction when reading his name. She’s was all over him and I believe many voters will be as well. Eddie just always seems so relaxed but energetic and kind, while Keaton comes off arrogant, distant and obsessively competitive.
In Actress. I didn’t see the love for Anniston either. See, I don’t believe Adams can make it. The Globe win doesn’t matter. Last year she had much beyond it. She had the film being huge with the Academy and the press went crazy about “will all four stars get nominated AGAIN?” thing, which helped Bale as well. This time around I even doubt most have seen the film. Anniston is in for Oscar, I guess. But she appeared so self-conscious.
In Supporting Actor. Lock.
Directing. Lock.
Writing. Two very interesting categories. I believe Wes Anderson will win. And I believe The Imitation Game has this one. The thing is that I predict a Gone Girl snub. Yes, I do. Just as The Help. Sometimes they act snobbish and refuse to acknowledge the adaptation of a book they consider trash.
Score and Song will most likely be repeats.
Foreign is interesting but Ida is strong for now.
Animated. Could this open the door for Princess Kaguya?
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL will lead the Oscar nominations!!!
Paul Hanlin,
Using your slavish insistence that artistic quality is based solely on ticket sales do you consider Chili’s or Applebee’s to be America’s greatest restaurants?
Thank you Sasha for that great write up, and for keeping AwardsDaily running every year (you too Ryan).
On to business at hand-
Best Actress is REALLY turning out to be a tight race for who gets in. Right now I have the following ladies-
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
I think people are overestimating Amy Adams. She was fine in Big Eyes but
a) The film was NOT A COMEDY. Why this keeps happening with the Globes and category fraud is beyond me. Adams is not a comedic actress- she’s timid, soft and a coward in most of her roles. Her role in Burton’s film is mostly lame crying scenes.
b) Best Actress – Comedy/Musical for 2014 was a WEAK lineup. Seriously there was bare bones to choose from. So Adams winning is not important; had Emily Blunt won, would she suddenly be considered for that fifth slot in best actress? Doubtful.
c) Oscar ballots were already turned in before the GG results. So Adams winning doesn’t change that.
d) Junebug aside, Amy Adams has only been nominated for an Ensemble Piece- when all her other costars also got swept up. The Fighter, Doubt, The Master and American Hustle are proof of this. She has always been the filler nominee.
Marion Cotillard is going to have enough passion votes to edge into number one. Felicity Jones IS the Amy Adams this year, swept along for the ride of her film’s success. Reese Witherspoon and Julianne Moore sit pretty knowing they actually were the best part of their movies, and Rosamund Pike is the cool hot blonde chick in the blockbuster. She’s also damn good.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Get ready for tears Thursday morning, because lot’s of surprises are in stow for Best Actor. David Oyelowo (Selma), Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher), Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) and Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) will not make the cut. It’s just too crowded. While Spall seemed like a darkhorse with his National Society of Film Critics win, the movie is just too small and quiet for enough voters I think. Oyelowo would be appropriate, but he’s too new and Selma is dying quickly. Right now a Best Picture nomination is even out of reach. I say the Christmas gift everyone is going to be talking about is Bradley Cooper, who aside being superior in Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper (it’s his best performance to date), succeeds by being fresh in voter’s minds. I say Cooper is the surprise. Cumberbatch (I hate his last name, I keep typing Cucumber), Redmayne and Keaton are locks and whose the fifth guy? Oh yes- the superb Jake Gyllenhaal- who unlike Steve Carrell – can solidify the “cool guy” slot because his film is better liked then Foxcatcher.
Keaton’s quite brilliant in the movie, but my preferences are with 1. Gyllenhaal, 2. Redmayne, and 3. Fiennes.
Glad to see Keaton getting this attention for ”Birdman,” but I see it more as a career award. If it were up to me, I would’ve given him a Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy for … ”Beetlejuice.” Interestingly, the National Society of Film Critics named Keaton the Best Actor in 1989 for a double-header: ”Beetlejuice” and ”Clean and Sober.”
Paddy: zing!
I would defend Boyhood as something utterly unknown in cinema, but I don’t think these haters would get it…
Paul Hanlin, honestly enough with the trolling. Paddy’s right. Your definition of what a flop is is very far off from the truth. Sorry Marvel isn’t in the conversation, get over it. The films this year in the running are amazing. Get real and stop trying to be a contrarian.
For reference (in millions)
2014: 20.9
2013: 19.6
2012: 16.9
2011: 17.0
2010: 16.9
2009: 14.9
2008: 6.1*
2007: 20,0
2006: 18.8
2005: 16.8
2004: 23.4
*Writers Strike caused ceremony to become press conference
I don’t see how Keaton deserves an Oscar more than any other actor nominated last night. They are all given find performances.
You do realize that the Golden Globes are voted on by about 90 critics right? So take the wins last night with a grain of salt. The Guild wins, along with BAFTA, will indicate more clearly who will win Oscar night.
@Paul Hanlin Jr
For crissakes, that’s still better than the ratings numbers for most Golden Globe ceremonies: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2010/01/17/golden-globes-tv-ratings-history/39204/
This is what happens when you honor a bunch of boxoffice flops…your Nielsen rating for the show plunges 10% from last year:
Paul, your definition of flop is incorrect. In fact, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Birdman, Whiplash and The Theory of Everything have easily recouped their costs at the domestic box office, with upswings of as much as 6x budget and counting. A flop is when a film falls short of expectations and/or fails to make back its budget. That is untrue of any of those films. You don’t know what you’re talking about.
This is what happens when you honor a bunch of boxoffice flops…your Nielsen rating for the show plunges 10% from last year: http://deadline.com/2015/01/golden-globes-ratings-2015-tina-fey-amy-poehler-nbc-1201347829/
“Last night’s 3-hour live NBC broadcast drew a 5.8 among adults 18-49. That’s down 10% from than the 6.5 that the 2014 Globes got in adjusted ratings and down 9% from what the 2013 show pulled. In terms of viewership, the 71st annual Golden Globes ended up being watched by 20.9 million, the best the show had done since 2004. In contrast, last night’s show, which saw big wins for Boyhood, DreamWorks Animation’s How To Train Your Dragon 2, The Affair and Amazon Studios’ Transparent, pulled an audience of 19.3 million – which is a 7% decline from last year.”
Oh totally, Steven. Fuck the producers. Much as I loved Tina and Amy’s later quips, and much as I expect they weren’t ever intended to be very long, lbw they were what most people were watching for!
To the person who said he’s bothered by Patricia Arquette not taking her GG until she had finished reading her thank you speech… Michael Keaton didn’t touch his award either. No, neither bothered me one bit. I don’t know why it should.
I hope Boyhood can keep this up. It should win BP, it deserves to win but I wouldn’t be against Selma winning BP. Keaton also deserves to win the Oscar as do Moore, Simmons and Arquette. I’m almost ready to say their wins are set in stone. Almost.
great conversation. Alper – IMO there are boring years when things seem sewn up, and then there are exciting years when things seem sewn up AND going to truly deserving winners. All of the front runners this year: Simmons, Arquette, Keaton (AND Redmayne) gave great performances. If things stay as they are and they win, that’s good with me. If Julianne Moore or Amy Adams takes the Oscar this year for Still Alice or Big Eyes, respectively, i can live with that. I haven’t seen either performance but there’s probably a pay-back involved and based on their records and no significant competition otherwise (and no, I haven’t seen Jennifer Aniston) either win would be satisfying. Speaking of Aniston, she even looked like she didn’t think she had the love in the room last night at the GG. At least every time the camera panned to her, or when her name was read, she kind of grimaced. Like a “I don’t think you really believe I should have been nominated” grimace. Between Eddie and Michael, I’m with Daveinprogress: Redmayne’s performance was pretty damned amazing given the physical and transformative requirements. It is pretty Oscar bait-y too, all things considered. It will be interesting to see how the guilds roll out to see whether he or Keaton pick up steam. Finally, on Patricia Arquette’s not holding her award. Sorry, but really? She’s a middle aged woman who needs reading glasses (don’t we all) and isn’t so vain not to wear them. She’s respectful to her audience by coming prepared (i.e., using her time efficiently and not adorably rambling) and reading a beautiful speech that gives recognition to many, including her famous siblings and ends sharing with the world the more important role of being a mom. Like she played in the film that she just won a major award for. If she needs to do all that and ask someone doing NOTHING behind her to hold her clunky award, brava Patricia.
@Nick Johnson – Well of course whoever wins SAG has a big push any of the 4 acting categories. But we’re chewing fats at the moment (pre-SAG). While the last 10 years SAG BA went on to win Oscar BA, the 4 consecutive year prior to that they didn’t match. Oscars winners only matchs SAG’s less than 69% of the time.
When it comes to Keaton vs Redmayne, i’m calling it right now, whoever wins the SAG will win the Oscar. The past 10 winners of the SAG award for best actor have gone on to win the Oscar. That will be the biggest indicator to me who has the edge in this race.
Dear Lord, I do NOT get the Amy Adams thing. She was totally mediocre in Big Eyes – and playing such a weak character (real life or not). And her southern accent was in and out and in and out. And the thing was hardly a COMEDY. Major category fraud for this win. I’d rather see Aniston get in for what will likely be her only shot. And for playing a far more compelling character.
Sorry no one is seeing how Adams is going to take the 5th spot … is pretty clear …
What last night also showed is how much support Amy Adams has within this industry. Sure, the HFPA are not her peers like SAG and The Academy, but her win over more favored candidates like Blunt and Moore proves that she is widely loved. That, coupled with the BAFTA nomination, and I think you’re looking at our fifth best actress nominee. Unless Marion Cotillard can rile up enough passion votes to help her overcome both Adams and Aniston, which I am doubtful.
As far as Original Screenplay, I think when it all boils down The Grand Budapest Hotel will surge ahead of Birdman to win that, since I still can’t see GBH becoming a major threat to Boyhood for best picture. Original Screenplay will be its consolation prize, and Birdman’s will be Michael Keaton’s Oscar. I still think Gone Girl has the edge in Adapted Screenplay (at least I hope), but never count out the prestige biopic, and this year there are two in that category with the Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game. Hopefully they’ll cancel each other out.
I know we’re all saying “It’s Moore’s year” but if Adams gets in, she might get some push. I mean, seven nominations in a decade, she’s deserving of a win and might get votes off that alone.
For Arquette, yes, deserving but have to wonder if her role in “CSI Cyber” might work against her, not to mention maybe voters going more for star power of Knightley or Chastain. I know, sounds wrong but then the Academy does play politics.
ww – You won’t get any complaints from me about the way SAG qualifies its Best Ensemble recipients. 17 to 4 is hardly a fair fight when, in actuality, both casts are equal in size. I think it mainly becomes a way to control the number of people that they have to invite to the damn party, and they’d rather have Bill Murray than Joe Nobody. It seems there’s only so much table space. They could always switch to auditorium style seating, but then less people would view it as a ‘party’ and probably wouldn’t attend.
Steve Barr, et al. – For the people who don’t get Boyhood, I don’t need to justify or defend why I think it’s great anymore. There are already hundreds of places you can go to read about why it is. If you don’t like it, tough shit. The staff of AD supports its awards endeavors, so you’ll probably get sick of this site very soon.
Excellent points, Alan!
As for Keaton vs. Redmayne. Redmayne can upset IF “The Theory of Everything” shows up in plenty of other categories when the nominations are announced, specifically the director category. The more categories it’s represented, the more chances it will be watched by the Academy members. “Theory” is a more accessible movie than “Birdman”, and Redmayne is the chief reason. It’s hard to deny a popular real life person who has severe physical ailments. It’s The Iron Lady meets My Left Foot. I thought Redmayne was a frontrunner in his category last night, but also thought that Cumberbatch might defeat him because of his superstar status and we all know how the GG like to decorate its stage with stars. But the fact that Cumberbatch didn’t come through speaks volume for Redmayne’s appeal.
Paddy, it sounds like some of your complaints about Keaton’s speech (like the run time) should be directed towards the producers of the show. Talking about himself and his past will annoy some and please others, but Keaton had nothing to do with others getting the music cues. Plus after decades of toiling around in the industry I think he earned his due in the spotlight for once. If this were Streep or Daniel Day-Lewis, I’d still wanna hear what they have to say, whatever it is, but I’m thinking, “You’re Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis! You’ll get many more times to do these things!”
Alan, I haven’t seen Imitation Game. I only compared it to King’s Speech in the context of the season. King’s Speech is a WW2-era British biopic back by Harvey Weinstein that went up against the critical darling of the year. Imitation Game is essentially in the same boat. 2 very different movies but they’re on the same path in the awards race. Difference is Colin Firth was winning most of the best actor trophies. Imitation Game hasn’t really won anything that I can think of.
One more thing i onlly wish a lot of you people had got upset over what Harvey Weinstein did to The Immigrant . He dumped the film in May . Didn’t re-release the film at the end of the year . Took out no ads in the trades or the the N.Y or L.A. times and no screeners were sent to Academy members . At the N.Y. film critics awards last week The Immigrant won two awards . The only film to win more was Boyhood with three . Harvey didn,t show up . He usually does . He,s a coward .
weinstein did to the
Did people say that The Imitation Game is an alternative ala TKS? No no no. TIG is very depressing, about a homosexual and not all that great. Cumberbatch gave a beautiful performance but compared to Colin Firth, it was rather inert. As a result, the movie doesn’t reach as far as TKS did.
Keaton and Moore both gave rambling speeches; due in part; i suggest as it was late in the evening and the booze had been flowing for 3 hours. It’s the Golden Globes! They’re always scrappy. They are a litmus test for some industry reaction to the movies and players. I too did not get much enthusiasm in the room to Jennifer Aniston; and look where they sat her! There are lots more prizes to be handed out; but for Academy members watching it does plant seeds for their final votes after nominations. I still think Boyhood is quite safe in the top 2 categories – a 3rd with Arquette. Birdman will show heavily category wise, but it will have to battle in most of them. Moore is safe; probably J.K Simmons too.For lead actor; the physical dexterity will come into play – Redmayne’s performance and transformations (and that he is playing a renowned figure) will push him over the line; unless the Keaton campaign is further ramped up. Two comebacks in 2 years? McConaughey was one thing, but Keaton another?
It has been and probably will eventually be Boyhood all the way. I was wondering if there would be *one* alternative waiting in the wing. Birdman and Budapest Hotel have been around the same time as Boyhood when the awards season began, so the fact that they haven’t appeared to threaten, they are not threatening. For a while it looked like it could be the stirring Selma, but maybe because of its darker subject matter, the LBJ controversy, the fact that “12 Years a Slave” swept last year, Selma hasn’t caught traction and overcome Boyhood’s frontrunner status.
There’s still time though, Selma wasn’t opened wide until very recently, like how Million Dollar Baby and King’s Speech late arrival overtook Aviator and TSN. But the difference with those scenarios is even though Selma is emotional, Boyhood is a much more universal and relatable movie. And for that, it will sail through the final Oscar night’s category.
For people who don’t understand Boyhood’s appeal, you don’t have to. You just have to look at its trajectory to measure its wide appeal. For a movie that was released in the thick of the summer (when blockbusters ruled) and still floats above as a frontrunner in January speaks volume its juggernaut status.
Martin Pall was right . Boyhood is a nothing movie about nothing . An overblown home movie . 12 Years A Bore . You people are a bunch of lemmings.
well, Marguerite Duras is mostly right.
Marguerite Duras is always right, in my experience.
I actually hated Michael Keaton’s acceptance speech. He hogged the stage for a fucking age and talked about himself the entire time. World-class filmmakers like Andrey Zvyagintsev are granted about 30 seconds to thank every single person who toiled in the making of their low-budget, under-appreciated, barely-seen masterpieces, and Batman eats up Tina Fey and Amy Poehler’s time by whining on about himself and his poor life. Not an actor on the planet can get by me with their self-pitying narcissism.
Yogsss, Imitation Game is “considered as the other choice” BECAUSE of King’s Speech. Plus it has Harvey again. Tom Hooper wasn’t that much of a celebrated director with the exception of his TV work and his amazing Damned United, which I don’t believe many people saw. If King’s Speech never beat Social Network I don’t think there would be this sort of hesitation with Imitation Game.
“It was a night for Boyhood, putting it in that nervous-making spot where The Social Network was in back in 2010. ”
I don’t know about that, to be honest. Both films are so different and we know TSN wasn’t able to pull that one off because of the lack of emotional, tear-jearker moments. Boyhood is miles above more emotional and relatable than TSN, that alone put the film on a great place.
Now, I get how you can compare that race, but I still don’t understand why is Imitation Game considered as the other choice. Even King’s Speech had more love for its director, a KEY thing to win BP sans Argo, but that’s a single case that will probably never repeat again. Morten who? No one is giving awards to that dude, except for the pay-me-a-check Hollywood Awards. So, people still affraid about TIG should cool off a bit, that movie is going nowhere. It’s only a contender on Adapted Screenplay and Score, no more than that. No award for Cumberbatch, no one cares about its director, it’s over. It really is over for that film for BP and everyone saying is SOOOO CLOSE between the Boyhood and Imitation Game is just really fucking delusional (I like you Tapley but is true!)
WW, I can’t remember where I read it but someone suggested that you only get listed for the SAG award, for ensemble, if your name is listed in the promotional material.
Also, this Patrick doesn’t give a shit that Arquette took out a sheet of paper and let the presenter hold her award while she gave her speech. It was the best speech of the night. Coming prepared and having someone hold onto your award for a little bit are hardly shameful things to do.
Sasha, I think you’re spot on when you suggest that Grand Budapest could upset Birdman in the screenplay category. After the Globes win, Academy voters might feel the need to honor Budapest in a major category, and the screenplay category seems the best place to do it. Birdman could end up like There Will Be Blood, taking home the awards for actor and cinematography. Also, I’m still not sold on Ava DuVernay’s and David Oyelowo’s Oscar chances. The DGA announcement tomorrow will reveal a lot. If DuVernay isn’t nominated tomorrow, Selma will have been shut out of all the major guild awards.
This is Not Eddie Redmayne’s year guys this is Keaton’s year.
Eddie Redmayne will win the Oscar for The Danish Girl. maybe 2016 maybe 2017. just sayin’. too early prediction 🙂
Im still slightly surprised how Redmayne (who I think is great) got the upper hand this year over Cumberbatch.
Cumberbatch is older, arguably more popular, received similarly glowing reviews, is charming, has Harvey, and is in the movie with far better box office.
Like. How did the Redmayne train start and keep rolling and end up eclipsing?
Is it simply because Redmayne has been nailing the circuit moreso? Is it because hes had Felicity Jones at his side throughout? Is it because Hawking is more known than Turing? Is it the physical transformation?
I guess if its all of these than it makes sense. But it still doesnt quite make sense to me.
All categories are locked guys.
Golden globe winners gonna win other awards. Boyhood..Moore..Keaton etc. just same all the way
there will be no big shocking suprise. don’t wait.
most boring award season
Danem, I complained that ”Boyhood” lists only 4 actors. I’m sure the movie is only following the SAG guidelines, but it sucks. ”The Grand Budapest Hotel” gets to list 17 actors because of their celebrity and agents, but the ensemble players in ”Boyhood,” some of whom have just as much screen time as SAG nominees, aren’t eligible or are too low-budget to bargain for their credits. This penalizes actors in low-budget films, and in this case, probably hurts ”Boyhood’s” chances to win the SAG Ensemble, because it’s so small. The spirit of the Ensemble award should be to honor a group effort. In ”Boyhood,” here are some of the other fine actors who should’ve been included: Marco Perella (Bill, the jerk of a professor); Jamie Howard and Andrew Villarreal (Mindy and Randy, his kids); Brad Hawkins (Jim, the 2nd husband); Tim Tigue (Mason’s teacher), and Richard Robichaux (Mason’s boss).
Looking in the archives of SAG Ensemble, I see that ”Bobby” listed 24 actors. Did anyone else know Lindsay Lohan is a SAG nominee? Geez …
Martin – you wrote this same post somewhere else or something eerily similar to it that I read on here before. It is more astute to compare 7 Up series to Linklater’s Before trilogy, which checks in on the same couple every 9 years.
If you need someone to explain the difference between an entire documentary series following multiple people through their entire lives (beginning decades ag) to an entirely scripted fictional film about one person growing up in the aughts, which is based on the experiences of the director and his actor-collaborator-friends, I don’t know what to tell you. I wasn’t bored for a single frame of Boyhood. What bores me are predictable conflicts, contrived plot points & plot holes, all-too-convenient resolutions, and false emotions and cliches. Boyhood offered none of these. Quite refreshing.
“Redmayne is playing a hero. Keaton is playing Jeff Wells. I rest my case.”
One of Stephen Holt’s better lines…
Does Michael Keaton have anything left to say at the Oscars. He gave a beautiful speech, so beautiful it felt like the Globes weren’t the right place for it. It must have been a very emotional moment for the guy, but in the words of Tobias Funke, I think he “prematurely shot his wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will. So now I’m afraid he has something of a mess on his hands.” I still think he will win and I’m very happy for him, but he’ll have a hard time topping that speech.
As for the show itself, it didn’t have any real shockers. Maybe “How to train your dragon 2”, but that’s it. The Grand Budapest Hotel was always a strong contender, so I wasn’t suprised one bit that it won, especially when you consider the fact that putting “Birdman” in the musical/comedy category didn’t felt right from the very beginning.
And didn’t Marguerite Duras actually say “Men are men, whether heterosexual or homosexual.”?
Marguerite Duras needs to get her mind off homosexual men.
Alain Vezina, I was refering to the several mentions that were made of last week’s paris attacks and the popular reaction to them. I was obviously being sarcastic, and as a Frenchman I was moved by these expressions of solidarity and support of our freedoms.
GLENN UK:
“One thing I have learned from Oscar watching is that there are three phases:
1. The Critics
2. The Globes
3. The Guilds
Very rarely do the three align unless its truly spectacular.”
When is the last time you have seen all 3 of these line up and then not win the Best Picture Oscar? Only once, 2005, Brokeback Mountain (most critics Best Picture/Director prizes ever to that date; the 3/4 major guilds director writers producers) and the Globe. And Brokeback only lost on account of homophobia, a sad fact. So, my point is, if Boyhood wins DGA, WGA and PGA, its 99.9% certain for the Best Picture Oscar. With just DGA and PGA – both of which are highly, highly likely, its 99%. This is not an interesting or wide-open race at all, Boyhood is on the cusp of being locked, as it was since the beginning when the critics went ga-ga (in my eyes, the film is extremely overrated, the last third falls apart as the kids grow up, lapsing into one cliche after the next). Boyhood, Linklater, Keaton, Moore, Simmons, Arquette. The only “Big 5” categories open are screenplay, with Gone Girl in the lead over Imitation Game (nothing else can win), and Birdman with a small edge over The Grand Budapest Hotel, even after last night’s Picture prize to Budapest (hooray!), because the Academy is more likely to want to give something to Alejandro than Wes. Heck, even many second-tier categories are pretty much done deals, from Art Direction (Budapest) and Cinematography (Birdman, though Mr. Turner is more deserving) to Song (Glory) and Visual
Effects (Interstellar). Despite the Globe going to Dragon (???), Lego will win animated, though The Tale of Princess Kaguya was the best film I saw this year, its really the only nomination I care about come Thursday, it’ll be close to see if it can fend off Book of Life for the 5th slot.
Martin Pal, which people said it was more interesting or better than Michael Apted’s movies? People might LIKE Boyhood better because it’s scripted and not a documentary. Don’t just focus on the central conceit of Boyhood like a handful of others are. When doing that all you’re doing is pointing to the things that came before like that episode of South Park where that line, “Simpsons did it!” was yelled over and over again. I’ll let this quote from The Social Network explain how it all is, “Look, a guy who builds a nice chair doesn’t owe money to everyone who ever has built a chair, okay?” Back in film school I once had an idea to film parts of a story every year for 20 years. This was years before I heard about Boyhood and Michael Apted’s movies. Maybe many on here love Boyhood because it reflects their own childhood. I haven’t watched it yet but even going by the trailer I picked a few things I saw that happened to me too.
Am I the only one who doesn’t get the affection so many have for BOYHOOD? How is it so much more interesting to people than those films directed by Michael Apted that followed a group of children and were updated every seven years beginning with Seven Up and continuing on? Where many see “profound” I see, like the song from A Chorus Line, nothing. I see the title character of the film, the boy of Boyhood, a boring adolescent sliding through a three hour story being pulled through it by everyone around him until he finally and mercifully graduates high school, but then, no, he goes to college, too! Maybe there’ll be a sequel where he gets married and has children! Just like life. It’s all so mundane it’s profound to many? I guess. Yes, the fact it took twelve years to make has it’s interest and writing a screenplay over time to incorporate various changes is worth a moment or two, but really, what is it I’m not getting about this whole endeavor that others are salivating over? Many people on these comment sections have been proclaiming how boring the British biopics are and yet somehow they find Boyhood a blast? When I see the other films in the Best Picture mix Boyhood does stand out. It stands out as the least interesting of all the stories being told in the group. But I guess people like “nothing.” They can write whatever they want onto that blank paper. After all, America likes Carrie Underwood and there was even a popular show about “nothing” that was on for nine years. “If you haven’t seen Boyhood, you ain’t seen nothing, yet,”
My Oscar nominations predictions
Best Picture:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Director:
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Actor:
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Actress:
Marion Cotillard, 2 Days, 1 Night
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Supp. Actor:
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Supp. Actress:
Emma Stone, Birdman
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Kiera Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Original Screenplay:
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Lego Movie
Nightcrawler
Adapted Screenplay:
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Wild
Anyone expecting The Imitation Game to win Best Ensemble or Cumberbatch to win Best Actor at SAG should know that SAG membership is massive. Way too big for Weinstein to buy out. Sure, he could have paid to get them on the ballot, but not enough actors will check the boxes. I expect a film like The GBH or Birdman to win that one. I don’t give Boyhood much chance there. Too few actors and only two name actors. Whomever complained about the cast list for Boyhood – an actor has to have their name on the screen by itself in order to qualify for SAG Ensemble. This is negotiated by agents and not something supporting actors making the minimum (small budget picture) would have negotiated.
That’s the last time you’ll see Keaton get a major award (BFCA hardly counts). Redmayne has this totally locked up, as does Budapest for the big winner at the Oscars.
I wasn’t bothered by Arquette reading her speech at all either. She looked up and improv’ed quite a bit of her acceptance. Writing your speech rather than rehearsing it (as Keaton did) shows the good kind of vulnerability without being as annoying as the Anne Hathaway type who spouts her emotions and is kind of a jumbled mess. Arquette came off as genuine. I couldn’t give two fucks about her career until I saw Boyhood. She won me over. The Oscar should be hers.
Jennifer Aniston will be the only actress nominated for film awards for à film that was not distributed in the USA.
Monsieur Christopher, how the Frenchs crashed the party? i sad was for the women watching those men winning prizes for stories with so few women, TGBH, Birdman, Whiplash, The Normal heart,… Marguerite Duras was right, men are homosexuels,
Marguerite Duras was right, men are homosexuels.
well, Marguerite Duras is mostly right.
I’m pissed Selma didn’t win any major award at GG. If Ava doesn’t get DGA nod, she won’t get Oscar BD nod. The only hopeful Oscar nods for Selma are: BP, Best Actor, Best Song.
As for the notion that ”Imitation Game’s” campaign is ”really just getting started,” I now see that Weinstein’s P.R. planning must’ve ”started” months ago. At the manufactured and abysmally low-rated ”Hollywood Film Awards” (on CBS on Nov. 14), it ”won” 4 awards: Hollywood Actor – Benedict Cumberbatch; Hollywood Supporting Actress – Keira Knightley; Hollywood Film Composer – Alexandre Desplat, and Hollywood Film Director – Morten Tyldum. Oddly enough, these honors have yet to be duplicated by any of the major awards … so far.
By the way, Cumberbatch announced in November that he was getting married, and Redmayne just got married last month. Coincidence? They’re both actors in their 30s, playing geeky scientists in British biopics. Redmayne plays Hawking now in ”Theory of Everything,” but Cumberbatch played him about a decade ago in BBC film called ”Hawking.”
Patrick, Arquette wasn’t the only one to do that. I’m sure she wanted to focus on who to thank rather than hold a heavy trophy. Shouldn’t have been bothersome at all.
*cracked, sorry
Gwen,
Unbroken just cracks 100 million dollars domestically. It is Definitely a success for Jolie as a director. She’s got nothing to worry about.
Boyhood
Linklater
Keaton
Moore
Simmons
Arquette
Should and will win at
The Oscars!
Ok let’s try to keep to put my comment between the lines. Boyhood•••Linklater•••Keaton•••Moore•••Simmons•••Arquette should and will win the Oscar!
When you have films like “Boyhood” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” probably being the two frontrunners for the Best Picture win, it´s one hell of an amazing year! (havent seen Selma and Birdman yet) It puts a big smile on my face to see the winner-photo on top!
Just a little bit nervous for “Ida”, it´s frontrunner-status looks a bit shaky now.
The only surprise for me is that they still hold the event in that ratty hotel.
Boyhood•••Linklater•••Keaton•••Moore•••Simmons•••Arquette should and will win the Oscars!
I too saw Selma over the weekend. The first half is quite good, when it’s an intimate movie about a man driven by his place in history but haunted by his own vulnerability. The second half sinks into what we all fear when it comes to biopics: too much speechifying, characters acting and speaking like they have special knowledge of history, over-dignity.
The film has around five or six Big Oscar moments. It hits the majority – which is a lot better than The Imitation Game – but it falls short on the biggest one – the violence at the Edmund Pettus Bridge. Duvernay makes the decision to intercut the action with people, including King, watching it on television, and that intercutting distracts from the power of the moment. I suspect that’s the largest setpiece that she has handled, so … lessons learned. (I also thought the LBJ speech to congress isn’t half as riveting as the real thing.)
Oyelowo really shines as King, and I would be pleased to see a nomination. So does Ejogo, who is a real find, and I’m surprised her name hasn’t popped up much in Supporting Actress. Duvernay has a strong talent with actors. Wilkinson, on the other hand, is comically miscast as LBJ. Doesn’t look like him, doesn’t sound like him, isn’t folksy like him.
Duvernay needs better cinematography. I know I’m fighting uphill with this issue, but deep is beautiful, and this film really called for depth of field rather than blurring backgrounds. The lighting is superb, though.
I would be fine with it being nominated. But it’s not a crime if it doesn’t get nominated, either. It’s a good film by a still pretty new director.
I missed the show, so thank you for the great analysis, Sasha!
Yeah, I don’t understand the ”wide-open” scenario for Best Picture. One notable Oscar pundit (on another site) seems to insist there’s still no front-runner, and that ”Imitation Game’s” campaign is ”just starting” and that it could come from behind like ”The King’s Speech.” Hmmm. ”Imitation Game” got shut out of the Independent Spirit Award nominations. It lost to ”Pride” at the British Independent Film Awards. I haven’t seen it win a Best Picture prize from any of the major critics’ groups. And even though, it got many BAFTA nominations, it was snubbed for Best Director. And last night, it went home empty-handed at the Globes. At least at this point in its season, ”The King’s Speech” won at the British Independent Film Awards, and Colin Firth was named Best Actor by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and won the Golden Globe for Best Actor, Drama. Hey, I’m not saying ”Boyhood” is a lock by any means; maybe ”Imitation Game” turns it all around by the SAG Awards with a Best Actor win for Cumberbatch and one for Ensemble. We’ll just wait and see.
We’ve been predicting Boyhood since the beginning of the season and have had no other film in the number one spot. The last time that happened I could not tell you
If Boyhood follows up with an Oscar Best Pic win that would make it three consecutive years that the Globes Best Drama winner has prevailed at the Oscars and the last time that happened I can tell you; 1999-2001 (American Beauty, Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind)
Glenn, I would argue that Boyhood IS that standout movie. The guilds will give it the same love as the critics (actors? Check. Directors? Check. Producers? Check.). It’s a feel good movie that also happens to be one of the best-reviewed in a decade. It’s small budget and scope belie the truth: it’s a juggernaut.
One thing I have learned from Oscar watching is that there are three phases:
1. The Critics
2. The Globes
3. The Guilds
Very rarely do the three align unless its truly spectacular. The critics have told us what they like, the Globes have had a say in the matter too. Now we have to wait for the Guilds …. the industry people. In 2010 that was when we saw the shift from The Social Network to The Kings Speech. Nothing that has happened so far really matters, unless as previously said, its a truly stand out movie. And for those talking about Aniston not receiving a nom at BAFTA, it could be one of two things – it is either not eligible or it opened too late (Selma style) and screeners were not issued so the film was unseen. Cake certainly hasn’t opened in the UK as far as I am aware.
How do you know Cumberbatch was upset losing? He was smiling during Eddie’s speech last night. And he’s too preoccupied about being a father.
Am I the only one that was bothered by Patricia Arquette not taking the globe she just won until after she was finished reading her pre-written speech?
Not really sure Birdman feels all that American in tone, even compared to The Grand Budapest Hotel. Birdman feels like its own edgy, independent thing. The Grand Budapest Hotel may seem ore European but it also seems more reminiscent of old Hollywood comedies, which is part of its charm.
Loved its win last night. I hope this means more awards for Wes Anderson, who rides bicycles made from discarded instrument parts.
I think all of this is right – including most of the comments – and just want to add that Linklater helped himself by presenting as probably the “aw-shucks”-iest major director since Francis Coppola. Who’s the last Best Director/Best Film winner to say “I got to speak last time, here I’ll give up the mike now”? You don’t know, and that’s the point. Like Coppola or Altman, it’s obvious Rick is an actor’s director, relying on them for heavy input, and I don’t have to tell you readers what job makes up the largest branch of voters in the Academy.
None of that would matter if Boyhood didn’t have the goods, but it SO does.
The Social Network was the frontrunner until it wasn’t.
Same can happen to Boyhood. But it won’t be Imitation Game pushing it out of the way.
Theory of Everything, Birdman, or Grand Budapest Hotel seem like the final candidates. I still won’t count out Selma if it manages to get through the nomination process.
To paraphrase from Mean Girls: People need to stop trying to make Jennifer Aniston happen.
Maybe she’ll be nominated, but there is no way in hell that she’ll win. Everyone knows this.
I’m sorry, either I’m missing something (I did many times in the past Oscar years), but I don’t get any “wide-open” scenario for now. Boyhood, Keaton, Moore, Simmons, Arquette and Linklater all seem to have a comfortable lead for now. I don’t see Boyhood as the new “Social Network”, because pundits kept saying The King’s Speech had the edge even while SN was on the course of sweeping the precursors. They insisted on saying “The Social Network CAN’T win Best Picture”. Either I overslept or I didn’t read anything substantial stating the same for Boyhood. If it has a strong rival movie, I don’t see a consensus as to which one that is.
Sorry but you’re wrong on #1. Keaton has this in the bag…Redmayne winning in Drama does not advance him to neck and neck status at the Oscars, due to the fact that the categories were split at the Globes…and Keaton won in the other category. If Keaton wins the SAG, it’s all over…if Redmayne wins the SAG, then it’s neck and neck.
Je Suis Charlie !!!
(The French ALWAYS have to crash the party one way or another)
Looks like Amy Adams win for BIG EYES will get her that 5th slot ,I’d love to see Jennifer Aniston getting into the final Five,but Adams has so far the industry support,she just collect a BAFTA nomination and that would help her.lets see what SAG Says about it
I edit my comment from before. Wes Anderson is not a lock for a Directing nom. But he looks relatively strong for 2 of those 3potential noms, and perhaps the 3rd if he gets in with the Directors branch.
I also didnt feel any overwhelming love for Aniston through my screen.
And as for Amy Adams, a BAFTA nom and this GG win could have come on too late. But it certainly looks like Adams and Aniston are the ones battling for that 5th spot.
SO happy for How To Train Your Dragon 2’s win last night. So surprising, but so well-deserved.
My issue with who wins Original Screenplay.
Linklater, Inarritu, and Anderson will all be nominated 3 times.
They all co-produced, directed, and wrote or co-wrote their films.
All three of them have never won an Oscar.
We know that Linklater will likely win 1 or 2 (BP and/or Director).
Who of Inarritu and Anderson wins Original Screenplay?
Will Inarritu win (like the Globes) or Anderson (a la Jonze last year)?
Who goes home empty-handed? 🙁
Im hoping that each wins something, but Im very doubtful.
Best Actor seems an even split between Keaton and Redmayne. Keaton was great and is obviously the sentimental favorite (and the favorite of older voters) but Redmayne’s performance is undeniably incredible, even if his movie was middling. It was one of the great screen performances of the last 5 years – truly incredible. He should win, and I think he could, in the way that Hillary Swank beat Annette Bening in ’99. Anyone who sees the performance may be hard-pressed not to vote for it. It’s that good.
Couldn’t believe Cumberbatch seemed upset losing. What the hell did he do in as Turing that comes close to Redmayne? So glad Imitation Game is getting shut up – completely bland, boring, self-involved drivel. Cumberbatch’s whole ‘I read everything about Turing – I feel akin to him’ trope isn’t selling. Awesome. A movie purely calculated to win Oscars.
Boyhood is a lock for BP and BD, and Birdman will win Screenplay. They have to give Inarritu and co. some recognition. I think Best Actor, Screenplay, and maybe a couple technicals are in order.
IF James Marsh’s name turns up tomorrow at the DGA as also could Wes Anderson’s, look for major changes in the race. EVERY SINGLE GUILD has nominated “Grand Budapest” EVERY SINGLE ONE. And watch it wins SAG Ensemble, too. If Eddie Redmayne wins at SAG, stick a fork in Keaton, he’s done. There’s much more support for “Theory of Everything” (including from me) than it is perceived here.
Redmayne is playing a hero. Keaton is playing Jeff Wells. I rest my case.
Whose whining was Keaton babbling about? People who had more difficult circumstances growing up? People who experience discrimination? I don’t quite know what he was referring to. Anyone have ideas?
1) kind of, keaton is still very much the lead.
2) agree.
3) were you in the room? I didn’t get the Aniston room love coming through my screen. Moore has it in the bag. Does Amy’s win count for anything? I guess we’ll have to see if she’s nominated.
4) agree.
5) I guess, I don’t know, the Globes never seem to be that far from the industry from where I’m sitting…
6) I hope you’re right about Selma doing fine, a DGA nomination would help me feel better about this.
7) nope, I mean, you contradict the “wide open year” statement yourself. It’s still Boyhood’s year and we have absolutely no proof to say otherwise.
8) I was far more shocked by dragon 2 and leviathan than grand budapest. Although these wins might mot mean much for the Oscars. Grand Budapest beating Birdman was a bit unexpected, but probably meaningless in terms of the Oscar race.
9) mostly agree. Flynn’s script is just OK, I don’t think “it should” win, and I don’t see why it being her own novel should count for “a lot”. My feeling is that script is kind of a BP consolation prize, so more likely TIG or TToE (neither of which I consider to be that much better than GG btw).
10) agree. I would just add that, in my opinion, boyhood is clearly superior than all the other contenders.
” ‘Birdman’ was not as beloved with HFPA voters …”
And yet the Foreign Press gave ”Birdman” the most nominations: 7. That’s 2 more than ”Boyhood” or ”Imitation Game,” tied with 5.
” ‘Birdman’ is much more American … less Foreign Press.”
If the ”international flavor” helped ”Grand Budapest Hotel” win Comedy/Musical, it didn’t help the Anglophilic ”Imitation Game” or ”Theory of Everything” win Drama. The HFPA voters picked ”Boyhood,” arguably one of the most American of the bunch.
I agree that ”Grand Budapest Hotel” will get a lot of love at the Oscar nominations. And I still think it’ll win Original Screenplay; it’s one way to recognize Wes Anderson’s wacky sensibility. Again, the Globe voters like to spread the wealth: Since they were voting ”Grand Budapest” for Comedy/Musical, they didn’t want Inarritu to leave empty-handed, so they gave him Screenplay as sort of a consolation prize.
”Boyhood” had a great night at the Globes. Not only did it win the most prizes, but its rivals didn’t seem to make any giant moves. If, say, ”The Imitation Game” or ”Selma” had won Drama, that could’ve been a game-changer. We’d all be talking about how ”Boyhood” is losing steam and how momentum has shifted. So far, I’d say it looks good for ”Boyhood” at the Critics’ Choice Awards this Thursday. But the SAG Awards might be a speed bump; ”Boyhood” lists only 4 actors in its Ensemble (which is wrong!). I think SAG voters will prefer a movie with a larger and starrier cast, like ”Birdman” or ”Budapest.”
‘
If Aniston gave a worthy performance, then she should win the Oscar. If someone else did, they should win.
As a fan of Angelina Jolie, this award season has been atrocious. I really wanted Unbroken to be a success for her as a director, but it was not and I accept that. I hope she continues to direct in spite of that. I also thought she gave a refined performance in Maleficient and it’s a shame she wasn’t rewarded for that. I also realize that she is not perfect and cannot excel at everything, she is not an idol – simply a movie star I admire. She is a fair, level person who would be livid to know her fans are somewhat cyber bullies.
Please stop putting Sasha down because she supports Jen Aniston. In her opinion, Aniston gave a worthy performance. She is free to express her opinion in whichever way she chooses. It is her website after all….
Angeloonies, brangeloonies – we’re not all like the bullies that post here!
Redmayne’s win seems to have taken Cumberbatch out of the running. And Redmayne’s characterization seems more Oscar-friend, but Keaton did give a memorable speech that adds luster to the sentiment of being a veteran — it’s hard to beat that.
Whoops! Please delete the first comment. Somehow only part of my whole thing got posted before I was finished.
I, too, saw Selma over the weekend. What an amazing film. “Glory” winning is justified and Oyelowo deserves to be nominated for best actor. I haven’t seen Redmayne but the actual achievement in acting is really down to Keaton and Oyelowo. It’s a remarkable performance. I also watched Inherent Vice last night. That’s a truly confusing movie but not in a bad way. There were so many moving parts and I spent so much time trying to piece together everything that I got myself lost. I took my focus off everything for just 5 minutes and that was my undoing. It really is a fantastic film as well. The way I described it on Facebook was, “I’ll admit to not understanding everything but I can still look at a Picasso and know it’s beautiful.” This film requires at least 2 or 3 viewings and will probably, sadly, be underrepresented at the Oscars. Talk about a great script!
As far as the Globes, best screenplay was always the most competitive of the night. It really could’ve gone to any of the nominees but I predicted Wes Anderson to win it, however Birdman’s script was one of the best of the year. And Boyhood is definitely in that “nervous-making” Social Network spot. However I’ll say if it comes down to Boyhood vs Birdman, or even Boyhood vs Birdman vs Grand Budapest Hotel, that’s far far far better than Social Network vs King’s Speech.
I, too, saw Selma over the weekend. What an amazing film. “Glory” winning is justified and Oyelowo deserves to be nominated for best actor. I haven’t seen Redmayne but the actual achievement in acting is really down to Keaton and Oyelowo. It’s a remarkable performance. I also watched Inherent Vice last night. That’s a truly confusing movie but not in a bad way. There were so many moving parts and I spent so much time trying to piece together everything that I got myself lost. I took my focus off everything for just 5 minutes and that was my undoing. It really is a fantastic film as well. The way I described it on Facebook was, “I’ll admit to not understanding everything but I can still look at a Picasso and know it’s beautiful.” This film requires at least 2 or 3 viewings and will probably, sadly, be underrepresented at the Oscars. Talk about a great script!
Also, I don’t quite see how we can say that the HFPA didn’t like Birdman as much as the industry. It won two major awards!
I liked what Keaton was trying to say about his upbringing, but was it just me or did his speech ramble on and on and only sorta say what he intended? I actually thought it was quite painful to listen to. He’ll need to do better at the Oscars.
Helen- kindly go fuck yourself! Sasha has not been pushing Aniston down our throats. She is merely stating her opinion. That fifth spot to me is wide open but Aniston has the edge since she was nominated by SAG, GG, and BFCA.
“Also forgot to add that the only reason Redmayne got anything was because of the category split. If they had been merged, Keaton would’ve easily been victorious.”
We don’t know this, though. We have to wait until SAG to get a true sense of which of the two is out in front.
Saw Selma this weekend. What a riveting piece of work. The win for Glory was so deserved especially in a weak year. Oyelowo should be on the actor list. Picture, Directing, cinematography, editing, costume would also be great Oscar nods to see.
*Open (not wide-open). Didn’t mean to misquote.
Also forgot to add that the only reason Redmayne got anything was because of the category split. If they had been merged, Keaton would’ve easily been victorious.
She has to get nominated first
Amy Adams is getting that 5 spot,sash you just want to shove Aniston down our throats
I wouldn’t say that Best Actor and the screenplay categories are wide-open at all. Keaton has it locked up, that is, pending some major upset. Birdman winning Best Screenplay cements its place as the leader for Best Original Screenplay (winners in this category have been winning a lot of Oscars in the last several years). If it gets the Critics Choice as well, it’s pretty much a certainty. Adapted Screenplay is heavily favored for Gone Girl right now, and it’s hard to see anything taking that away from it.