This weekend, the all important Ace Eddies will be held and two films will win in their individual categories – drama and musical/comedy.
The common wisdom right now is that BOYMAN or BIRDHOOD will prevail – and that Boyhood will win in drama and Birdman in comedy. BUT.
There are some rules that have been consistently true about the Eddies and the Oscars. The first is that no film has ever won Best Picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People, over 30 years ago. The second thing is that since the Ace Editors expanded back in 1998 to separate films into drama and comedy/musical, there has never been a film that was in the comedy category and nominated for an Oscar that hasn’t won.
This year the only film from the comedy category to earn an Oscar nod is The Grand Budapest Hotel. History tells us that will win based on what they’ve done in the past. If it doesn’t win, and it goes to the favorite – Birdman – that will be a first in their history.
Thus, I will predict The Grand Budapest Hotel to prevail in the Comedy category but I will also add that 2015 feels like an odd year. Partly because of the wacky way it’s been going and partly because of the dramatic difference in the dates of Oscar ballots and nominations. In some ways it feels like “all bets are off.” Put it this way – Birdman is going to have to be REALLY popular to break those two historical precedents – to win Eddie without a corresponding Oscar nom, and to win Best Picture without a corresponding Oscar nom in editing. If it manages either or both of these I would expect you have a robust contender on your hands that will likely sweep the season.
The win in the drama category is also going to be interesting. I don’t know how you don’t give it to Boyhood when you consider what that movie is – and how it leans so heavily on the editor, in this case, one of the few women to be nominated, Sandra Adair. But this, too, will test the popularity of Boyhood on a much larger scale as we head towards the DGA awards. For some reason it seems like the showier editing might upstage Boyhood – particularly American Sniper, which is my prediction to win this award. It’s just a hunch and bears no weight on Boyhood’s potential Best Picture win – it’s just that I have a feeling Sniper is going to win the Eddie and then win the Oscar.
Let it be said again that I would prefer to see Boyhood win this as I think (not being an editor) it deserves it, along with Best Picture.
In documentary I think it could go to Vivian Maier, which has more showy editing than Citizen Four but I can’t not predict CitizenFour and go agains the consensus.
In animated – I think The Lego Movie takes it but honestly, Big Hero 6 has amazing editing…it’s a tossup for me and many are predicting the Boxtrolls.
Final predictions
American Sniper (but I am hoping for Boyhood)
Grand Budapest Hotel (but it could be Birdman)
Citizenfour (watch out for Vivian Maier)
The Lego Movie (but it could really be Big Hero 6)
You tell me what you think?
(polls)
The Charts
The Ace Eddies
Won Ace | Won Oscar
| 2014 | |
| American Sniper | American Sniper |
| Boyhood | Boyhood |
| Gone Girl | |
| Imitation Game | Imitation Game |
| Nightcrawler | |
| Whiplash | Whiplash |
| Birdman | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | |
| Into the Woods | |
| Inherent Vice | |
| Grand Budapest Hotel | Grand Budapest Hotel |
| 2013 | |
| Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips |
| 12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave |
| Gravity | Gravity |
| Her | Dallas Buyers Club |
| Saving Mr. Banks | |
| American Hustle | American Hustle |
| August: Osage County | |
| Nebraska | |
| Wolf of Wall Street |
2012
| Argo+ | Argo+ |
| Life of Pi* | Life of Pi* |
| Lincoln* | Lincoln* |
| Skyfall | |
| Zero Dark Thirty* | Zero Dark Thirty* |
| Silver Linings Playbook* | Silver Linings Playbook* |
| The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | |
| Les Miserables* | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | |
| Ted |
2011
| The Descendants | The Descendants* |
| Hugo | Hugo* |
| Moneyball | Moneyball* |
| War Horse | |
| The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo |
| The Artist | The Artist+ |
| Young Adult | |
| Midnight in Paris | |
| Bridesmaids | |
| My Week with Marilyn |
2010
| The Social Network | The Social Network* |
| The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech+ |
| Black Swan | Black Swan* |
| Inception* | 127 Hours* |
| The Fighter | The Fighter* |
| Alice in Wonderland | |
| Easy A | |
| The Kids Are All Right* | |
| Made in Dagenam | |
| Scott Pilgrim vs. The World |
2009
| The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
| Avatar | Avatar* |
| District 9 | District 9* |
| Star Trek | Inglourious Basterds* |
| Up in the Air* | Precious+ |
| The Hangover | |
| 500 Days of Summer | |
| A Serious Man* | |
| It’s Complicated | |
| Julia & Julia |
2008
| Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
| Milk | Milk* |
| Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button* |
| Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon* |
| The Dark Knight | The Dark Knight |
| Wall-E | |
| In Bruges | |
| Mamma Mia! | |
| Tropic Thunder | |
| Vicky Cristina Barcelona |
2007
| The Bourne Ultimatum | The Bourne Ultimatum |
| Into the Wild | Into the Wild |
| Michael Clayton* | Diving Bell |
| No Country for Old Men* | No Country for Old Men+ |
| There Will Be Blood* | There Will Be Blood* |
| Hairspray | |
| Juno* | |
| Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End | |
| Ratatouille | |
| Sweeney Todd |
2006
| Babel* | Babel* |
| Casino Royale | Children of Men |
| The Departed* | The Departed+ |
| The Queen* | Blood Diamond |
| United 93 | United 93 |
| Thank You for Smoking | |
| The Devil Wears Prada | |
| Dreamgirls | |
| Little Miss Sunshine* | |
| Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest |
2005
| Brokeback Mountain* | Cinderella Man |
| The Constant Gardener | The Constant Gardener |
| Crash+ | Crash+ |
| Good Night, and Good Luck* | |
| Munich* | Munich* |
| Charlie and The Chocolate Factory | |
| The Family Stone | |
| Pride & Prejudice | |
| Wedding Crashers | |
| Walk the Line | Walk the Line |
2004
| Collateral | Collateral |
| Finding Neverland* | Finding Neverland* |
| Kill Bill Vol. 2 | |
| Kinsey | |
| Million Dollar Baby* | Million Dollar Baby+ |
| The Aviator * | The Aviator* |
| De-Lovely | |
| Eternal Sunshine | |
| The Incredibles | |
| Ray* | Ray* |
| Sideways* |
2003
| Cold Mountain | Cold Mountain |
| Master and Commander* | Master and Commander* |
| Mystic River* | City of God |
| The Return of the King+ | The Return of the King+ |
| Seabiscuit* | Seabiscuit* |
| (COMEDY OR MUSICAL): | |
| Bend It Like Beckham | |
| Finding Nemo | |
| Lost in Translation* | |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | |
| School of Rock |
2002
| The Hours* | The Hours* |
| Gangs of New York* | Gangs of New York* |
| About Schmidt | |
| The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers | Lord of the Rings: Two Towers * |
| Minority Report | The Pianist* |
| (COMEDY OR MUSICAL): | |
| About a Boy | |
| Adaptation | |
| My Big Fat Greek Wedding | |
| Chicago+ | Chicago+ |
| Punch-Drunk Love |
2001
| A Beautiful Mind + | A Beautiful Mind+ |
| Black Hawk Down |
Black Hawk Down |
| Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone |
|
| The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring* |
Lord of the Rings* |
| Memento | Memento |
| (COMEDY OR MUSICAL): |
|
| Gosford Park * | |
| Amelie | |
| Monsters, Inc. | |
| Moulin Rouge! * |
Moulin Rouge* |
| The Royal Tenenbaums | |
| Shrek |
2000
| Billy Elliot | Wonder Boys |
| Cast Away | |
| Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
| Gladiator+ | Gladiator+ |
| Traffic* | Traffic* |
| Film Editing – Musical or Comedy | |
| Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
| Best In Show | |
| Chocolat * | |
| O Brother, Where Art Thou? | |
| Shanghai Noon |
1999
| American Beauty + | American Beauty* |
| The Insider* | The Insider* |
| The Matrix | The Matrix |
| The Sixth Sense * | The Sixth Sense* |
| The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Cider House Rules* |
| Film Editing – Musical or Comedy | |
| Analyze This | |
| Being John Malkovich | |
| Election | |
| Man On the Moon | |
| Run Lola Run |
