The Writers Guild will be held tonight. We will be updating the winners as they come in.
The first thing you need to know about the WGA awards tonight is that Gone Girl got screwed for the Oscar. It now holds the record as the only film to get as many precursor nominations and not get an Oscar nomination. The ways the Academy has rejected Fincher’s work is something that will swim back and bite them in the ass years down the line. I don’t know much about the world but that is something I do know. They also shut out James Vanderbilt for Zodiac, believe it or not.
The second thing to know is that no film that hasn’t been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars has won either the WGA or the Oscar in the screenplay category since 2004, around the time Academy switched their date back one month. When they did that, all of the other bodies shifted their dates back. Now, there is little time for contemplation, little time to build up momentum. That means, since then, no film has won without a Best Picture nomination.
Before that you had great and original wins like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Bowling for Columbine, etc. Thing is, with more than five nominees it is even more likely only a Best Picture nominee will win.
That means that in the Adapted screenplay category, barring some freakish occurrence, either The Imitation Game or American Sniper are the only two scripts in the adapted category that can win tonight.
It’s a toss-up there, actually. Both films have been hit with controversy. Both films are loved. The Imitation Game won the Scripter, though Sniper was not nominated for that (can you imagine?). I am not sure which controversy will hurt more but Anne Thompson is predicting Sniper and I think that’s a good prediction. Let it be said again that had Gone Girl been nominated, and not stopped in its tracks by very narrow minded industry people, it would be winning everything – without breaking a sweat. Nothing would be more thrilling than to see her glide to a win but people just want to be on the side that’s winning and if the grand jury that is the Academy turned up their noses well, you can expect everyone else (except the Critics Choice) to follow suit. Ain’t that a shame.
Original is a little more complicated. Birdman is not nominated – that means there’s a good chance The Grand Budapest Hotel will take the award tonight. The three that have the best shot to win are Boyhood, Grand Budapest and Whiplash. Since Budapest has been winning things left and right it seems like it can’t lose. I’m hoping for Boyhood but there’s this sense that it wasn’t really “written” so much as improvised. I think that’s nuts but regardless, you know writers.
The real showdown is going to be between Birdman and Grand Budapest (both Fox Searchlight) for the Oscar. For the WGA, Budapest – the winner of the Eddie and the BAFTA, could probably have this.
Predictions:
Adapted: American Sniper (alt. Imitation Game)
Original: Grand Budapest (alt. Whiplash)
Poll – you tell me!
(polls)
Charts:
*nominated for Best Pic +won Best Pic
2014 | |
Boyhood* | Boyhood* |
Foxcatcher | Foxcatcher |
The Grand Budapest Hotel* | The Grand Budapest Hotel* |
Nightcrawler | Nightcrawler |
Whiplash | Birdman* |
American Sniper | American Sniper |
Gone Girl | Whiplash |
Guardians of the Galaxy | Theory of Everything |
The Imitation Game | The Imitation Game |
Wild | Inherent Vice |
2013 | |
Her* | Her* |
American Hustle | American Hustle* |
Blue Jasmine | Blue Jasmine |
Dallas Buyers Club | Dallas Buyers Club* |
Nebraska | Nebraska* |
Captain Phillips* | Captain Phillips* |
August: Osage County | 12 Years a Slave+ |
Before Midnight | Before Midnight |
Lone Survivor | Philomena* |
The Wolf of Wall Street | The Wolf of Wall Street* |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook* |
2012 | |
Original | Original |
Zero Dark Thirty* | Zero Dark Thirty* |
Flight | Flight |
Looper | Amour* |
The Master | Django Unchained* |
Moonrise Kingdom | Moonrise Kingdom |
Adapted | |
Argo* | Argo+ |
Life of Pi* | Life of Pi* |
Lincoln* | Lincoln* |
The Perks of being a Wallflower | Beasts of the Southern Wild* |
Silver Linings Playbook* | Silver Linings Playbook* |
2011 | |
Win Win | The Artist* |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids |
50 50 | Margin Call |
Young Adult | A Separation |
Midnight in Paris* | Midnight in Paris* |
Adapted | Adapted |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | The Ides of March |
Moneyball* | Moneyball* |
The Help* | Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
The Descendants* | The Descendants* |
Hugo* | Hugo* |
2010 | 2010 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Black Swan* | The King’s Speech+ |
Please Give | Another Year |
The Fighter* | The Fighter* |
The Kids Are All Right* | The Kids Are All Right* |
Inception* | Inception* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Social Network* | The Social Network* |
127 Hours* | 127 Hours* |
True Grit* | True Grit* |
I Love You Philip Morris | Winter’s Bone* |
The Town | Toy Story 3* |
2009 | 2009 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Hurt Locker+ | The Hurt Locker+ |
A Serious Man* | A Serious Man* |
500 Days of Summer | Up* |
The Hangover | The Messenger |
Avatar* | Inglourious Basterds* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Up in the Air* | Up in the Air* |
Crazy Heart | In the Loop |
Star Trek | District 9* |
Precious* | Precious* |
Julie & Julia | An Education* |
2008 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Milk* | Milk* |
Burn After Reading | Frozen River |
The Visitor | Happy-Go-Lucky |
The Wrestler | In Bruges |
Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Wall-E |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Slumdog Millionaire+ | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Doubt | Doubt |
Frost/Nixon* | Frost/Nixon* |
Benjamin Button* | Benjamin Button* |
The Dark Knight | The Reader* |
2007 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Diablo Cody, Juno* | Diablo Cody, Juno* |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages | Tamara Jenkins, The Savages |
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl | Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl |
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up | Brad Bird, Ratatouille |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+ | Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+ |
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Sarah Polley, Away from Her |
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac | Christopher Hampton Atonement* |
2006 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Babel* | Babel* |
The Queen* | The Queen * |
Stranger than Fiction | Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Little Miss Sunshine* | Little Miss Sunshine * |
United 93 | Pan’s Labyrinth |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Departed+ | The Departed+ |
Thank You for Smoking | Notes on a Scandal |
Little Children | Little Children |
Borat | Borat |
Devil Wears Prada | Children of Men |
2005 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
40 Year Old Virgin | Syriana |
Crash+ | Crash+ |
Cinderella Man | Match Point |
Good Night, and Good Luck* | Good Night * |
Squid and the Whale | Squid and the Whale |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Brokeback Mountain* | Brokeback Mountain* |
Capote* | Capote* |
Constant Gardener | Constant Gardener |
History of Violence | History of Violence |
Syriana | Munich* |
2004 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Aviator* | The Aviator* |
Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Garden State | Vera Drake |
Hotel Rwanda | Hotel Rwanda |
Kinsey | The Incredibles |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Before Sunset | Before Sunset |
Mean Girls | Finding Neverland* |
Million Dollar Baby+ | Million Dollar Baby+ |
Sideways* | Sideways* |
Motorcycle Diaries | Motorcycle Diaries |
2003 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bend it Like Beckham | The Barbarian Invasions |
Dirty Pretty Things | Dirty Pretty Things |
In America | In America |
Lost in Translation* | Lost in Translation* |
The Station Agent | Finding Nemo |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
American Splendor | American Splendor |
Cold Mountain | City of God |
ROTK+ | ROTK* |
Mystic River* | Mystic River * |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit* |
2002 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Far From Heaven | Far From Heaven |
Gangs of New York* | Gangs of New York* |
Antwone Fisher | Talk to Her |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Greek Wedding |
Bowling for Columbine | Y Tu Mama Tambien |
Chicago | Chicago+ |
The Hours | The Hours* |
About Schmidt | The Pianist* |
Adaptation | Adaptation |
About a Boy | About a Boy |
2001 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Gosford Park* | Gosford Park* |
The Man Who Wasn’t There | Amelie |
Monster’s Ball | Monster’s Ball |
Moulin Rouge | Memento |
The Royal Tenenbaums | The Royal Tenenbaums |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Black Hawk Down | Shrek |
Bridget Jones’s Diary | In the Bedroom* |
Ghost World | Ghost World |
The Fellowship of the Ring | Fellowship of the Ring* |
2000 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Erin Brockovich | Erin Brockovich* |
Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
Best In Show | Gladiator+ |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot |
You Can Count On Me | You Can Count On Me |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Chocolat | Chocolat* |
High Fidelity | O Brother Where Art Thou? |
Traffic | Traffic* |
Wonder Boys | Wonder Boys |
1999 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Being John Malkovich | Being John Malkovich |
Magnolia | Magnolia |
The Sixth Sense | The Sixth Sense* |
Three Kings | Topsy-Turvy |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules* |
Election | Election |
The Insider | The Insider* |
October Sky | The Green Mile* |
The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Talented Mr. Ripley |
1998 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bulworth | Bulworth |
The Opposite of Sex | Life Is Beautiful * |
Shakespeare In Love* | Shakespeare In Love+ |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan* |
The Truman Show | The Truman Show |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Gods and Monsters | Gods and Monsters |
A Civil Action | The Thin Red Line* |
Primary Colors | Primary Colors |
A Simple Plan | A Simple Plan |
Out Of Sight* | Out Of Sight |
WINNERS CHART
+Won Best Picture
*nominated for Best Pic
WGA | OSCAR
2013: Her* | Her* |
Captain Phillips* | 12 Years a Slave+ |
2012: Zero Dark Thirty* | Django Unchained* |
Argo+ | Argo* |
2011: Midnight in Paris* | Midnight in Paris* |
The Descendants* | The Descendants* |
2010: Inception* | The King’s Speech+ |
The Social Network* | The Social Network* |
2009: The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
Up in the Air* | Precious* |
2008: Slumdog Millionaire+ | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Milk | Milk* |
2007: No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men+ |
Juno | Juno* |
2006: The Departed | The Departed+ |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine* |
2005:Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Crash | Crash+ |
2004: Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Sideways | Sideways* |
2003: Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
American Splendor | Return of the King+ |
2002: The Hours* | The Pianist* |
Bowling for Columbine | Talk to Her |
2001: A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Gosford Park | Gosford Park* |
2000: Traffic | Traffic* |
You Can Count on Me | Almost Famous |
1999: American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Election | The Cider House Rules* |
1998:Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love+ |
Out of Sight | Gods and Monsters |
1997: L.A. Confidential | L.A. Confidential* |
As Good as it Gets | Good Will Hunting* |
1996: Sling Blade | Sling Blade |
Fargo | Fargo* |
1995: Braveheart | The Usual Suspects |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility* |
1994: Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump+ |
Four Weddings/Funeral | Pulp Fiction* |
1993: Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List+ |
The Piano | The Piano* |
1992: The Crying Game | The Crying Game * |
The Player | Howards End* |
1991: The Silence of the Lambs | The Silence of the Lambs+ |
Thelma and Louise | Thelma and Louise |
1990: Dances with Wolves | Dances with Wolves+ |
Avalon | Ghost* |
1989: Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy+ |
Crimes and Misdemeanors | Dead Poets Society* |
1988: Dangerous Liaisons | Dangerous Liaisons* |
Bull Durham | Rain Man+ |
1987: Roxanne | The Last Emperor+ |
Moonstruck | Moonstruck* |
1986: A Room with a View | A Room with a View* |
Hannah and Her Sisters | Hannah and her Sisters* |
1985: Witness | Witness* |
Prizzi’s Honor | Out of Africa+ |
1984: The Killing Fields | Amadeus+ |
Broadway Danny Rose | Places in the Heart* |
1983: Tender Mercies | Tender Mercies* |
Reuben, Reuben | Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: Missing | Missing* |
Tootsie | Gandhi+ |
1981: Reds | Chariots of Fire+ |
On Golden Pond | On Golden Pond * |
Rich and Famous | |
Arthur | |
1980:Ordinary People | Ordinary People+ |
Airplane, Private Benjamin | |
Melvin and Howard | Melvin and Howard |
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
Breaking Away | Breaking Away* |
The China Syndrome, Being There | |
1978: Midnight Express | Midnight Express* |
Coming Home | Coming Home* |
Heaven Can Wait | |
Movie, Movie | |
1977: Annie Hall | Annie Hall+ |
Julia | Julia* |
The Turning Point, Oh, God | |
1976: All the President’s Men | All The President’s Men* |
Network | Network* |
Pink Panther Strikes Again | |
1975: One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
Dog Day Afternoon | Dog Day Afternoon* |
The Sunshine Boys | |
Shampoo | |
1974: Godfather Part II | Godfather Part II+ |
Chinatown | Chinatown* |
Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz | |
Blazing Saddles | |
1973: A Touch of Class | The Exorcist* |
Save the Tiger, Paper Moon | The Sting+ |
Serpico | |
1972: The Godfather | The Godfather+ |
The Candidate | The Candidate |
What’s Up, Doc? Cabaret | |
1971: The French Connection | The French Connection+ |
The Hospital | The Hospital |
Kotch; Sunday, Bloody, Sunday | |
1970: Patton | Patton+ |
M*A*S*H | M*A*S*H* |
I Never Sang for My Father, The Out-of Towners | |
1969: Midnight Cowboy | Midnight Cowboy+ |
Butch Cassidy | Butch Cassidy/Sundance Kid * |
Goodbye, Columbus; Bob, Ted, Carol and Alice | |
1968:Lion in Winter | The Lion in Winter* |
The Producers | The Producers |
Funny Girl, Odd Couple | |
1967: The Graduate | In the Heat of the Night+ |
Bonnie and Clyde | Guess Who’s Coming… * |
Thoroughly Modern Millie | |
1966: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolfe? | A Man for All Seasons+ |
The Russians are Coming | A Man and a Woman |
1965: A Thousand Clowns | Dr. Zhivago* |
The Sound of Music, The Pawnbroker | Darling* |
1964: Becket | Becket |
Dr. Strangelove, Mary Poppins | Father Goose |
1963: Hud | Tom Jones+ |
Lillies of the Field | How the West Was Won |
1962: The Kill a Mockingbird | To Kill a Mockingbird * |
That Touch of Mink, Music Man | Divorce Italian Style |
1961: the Hustler | Judgment at Nuremberg |
Breakfast at Tiffany’s, West Side Story | Splendor in the Grass |
1960: The Apartment | The Apartment+ |
Elmer Gantry | Elmer Gantry |
The Bells are Ringing | |
1959: The Diary of Anne Frank | Room at the Top * |
Some Like it Hot, Five Pennies | Pillow Talk |
1958: Gigi | Gigi+ |
The Defiant Ones | The Defiant Ones |
Me and the Colonel | |
1957: 12 Angry Men | Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
Love in the Afternoon | Designing Women |
Les Girls | |
1956: Around world/80 Days | Around world/80 Days+ |
The King and I | The red Balloon |
Friendly Persuasion | |
1955: Marty | Marty+ |
Mr. Roberts | Interrupted Melody |
Love Me/Leave Me | |
1954: On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront+ |
Sabrina, Seven Brides/Seven Bros. | The Country Girl |
1953: From Here to Eternity | From Here to Eternity+ |
Lili, Roman Holiday | Titanic |
1952: High Noon, The Quiet Man | Lavender Hill Mob |
Singing in the Rain | Bad and Beautiful |
1951: An American in Paris | An American in Paris+ |
A Place in the Sun | A Place in the Sun* |
Father’s Little Dividend | |
1950: All About Eve | All About Eve+ |
Sunset Boulevard | Sunset Boulevard * |
Broken Arrow, Annie Get Your Gun | |
1949: All the King’s Men | All the King’s Men+ |
A Letter to Three Wives, on the Town | Battleground* |
1958: The Snake Pit | Treasure of the Sierra Madre* |
Sitting Pretty, Easter Parade |
Good. Some semblance of clarity…
Tuning out now. ‘Night everyone!
…and that’s that. Fully expected, but again, Birdman will win Original Screenplay next week.
Whoa… OK… Didn’t realize it wasn’t cool (I’m still not 100% sure why, but it’s OK, no need to explain.) Sorry!… 🙁
The live blog, I mean. Thanks again for the tip!
“I think a lot of these “experts” just like to wait until the last minute.”
Clearly. It’s practically a fact…
“Very unclear situation over at Gold Derby…”
I imagine more will come to their senses in the next few days. I think a lot of these “experts” just like to wait until the last minute.
I mean, it could still win the Oscar, as it’s not lost in Adapted anywhere yet.
Oh yeah, and Whiplash could still win, I guess… 🙂 Since it’s in the other category.
Yup… Very unclear situation over at Gold Derby…
OK, I looked at the Experts chart at GoldDerby: 13 of the 25 of them are picking ”Birdman.”
They edge out the 12 choosing ”Boyhood,” so ”Birdman” is the favorite by one.
But … I question how up-to-date that chart is. The DGA was on Feb. 7. About a half-dozen of the experts switched from ”Boyhood” to ”Birdman” after that. … Also, there are a number of ”Boyhood” picks for Best Picture that have not been changed since Jan. 31. Either those folks still back ”Boyhood” regardless of the DGA result, OR they haven’t updated their votes. … It’s a fluid situation. Before the DGA results came out, nearly all the Experts picked Linklater to win.
The BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay is an even worse indicator than their Original Screenplay Category. The last three screenplays to win the Adapted Screenplay BAFTA: Philomena, Silver Linings Playbook, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I’m so happy that The Imitation Game won.
LEOCDC – Your last paragraph doesn’t make sense. How ironic after you’ve criticised this worthy winner.
I guess Theory could still be in it, though, right? Since it was ineligible and it won the BAFTA… Does it have a chance?
“The Scripter has been right the last four years in a row (and some years before that, not necessarily in order). The WGA has been right the last 8/10 times this past decade, but again, Up in the Air lost due to controversy, meaning you have to go back to 2004’s American Splendor to find when it last differed.”
Yeah, that does sound pretty solid… Too bad for Whiplash! 🙁
*I meant to add that this obviously excludes screenplays that were deemed ineligible by the WGA (i.e. 12 Years a Slave).
“Are the stats that prohibitive that nothing else has a real chance now? Is Scripter+WGA enough?”
It’s pretty solid. The Scripter has been right the last four years in a row (and some years before that, not necessarily in order). The WGA has been right the last 8/10 times this past decade, but again, Up in the Air lost due to controversy, meaning you have to go back to 2004’s American Splendor to find when it last differed.
About the adapted screenplay award, what a waste of award. Gone Girl or American Sniper are by far, best options. In any case, this was a weak year in adapted films. Original, that’s where all the gold.
In fact, The Imitation Game is a very good film, but its screenplay is what avoid to become a great one.
Are the stats that prohibitive that nothing else has a real chance now? Is Scripter+WGA enough?
And Imitation Game has just secured its Oscar.
“Couldn’t disagree more!”
I’m glad people could get into it. I couldn’t. Felt profoundly fake in too many places (although I’m not saying there weren’t genuine and powerful moments – there were; just not enough to compensate, for me, overall).
“Final version: “Thanks for the tip!” :)”
No problem! Looks like they have people at both ceremonies, so whoever finishes first, we’ll know what’s taken the top prizes as soon as possible.
“Awarding The Imitation Game’s screenplay at the Scripter was the real travesty… What was that, like, most interesting story and least interesting, cliche-ridden dialogue, to go with it? What were they thinking?! At least Theory, while not being anywhere near the best adapted screenplay in this or any year, mostly (I emphasize mostly) avoids cliches, and isn’t in-your-face bad. It might not be as complex as some would have wanted, but at least it’s not a complete joke, like The Imitation Game’s…”
Couldn’t disagree more!
I never find the best words when I type in a hurry… Final version: “Thanks for the tip!” 🙂
I mean the idea – I just googled it, of course. 🙂
Awesome – thanks for the link!
Although it could be some of them (like Sasha) don’t actually think it’s the favorite, but are just consciously picking the slightly less likely winner in a tight race. But, yeah, surely at least 2 or 3 of the 11 actually think it’s the favorite! There’d be way fewer than 11 of them if nobody did…
“Re suggesting Boyhood is the favorite, 11/24 experts at gold derby including Sasha still listing is at the favorite.”
Correct! You found the best example, the one I couldn’t find on the spot to give him. I should have thought of that!… 🙂
Deadline also does a live blog which is great for quick updates and other tidbits.
Deadline does fine without you guys linking to them, alright?
But yeah, it probably ISN’T streamed this year – I saw some folks bemoan the fact on Twitter earlier.
Seems we agree with Greg after all!
Yes a WGA win over Birdman would be more powerful than a win without a Birdman so Boyhood win here solidifies it’s changes without making it favorite
Bottom line is there is NO historical precedent for a film winning BP without one of the 4- PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA. There are of course precedents for winning without editing, and without GG or BAFTA.
To Greg’s comment Re suggesting Boyhood is the favorite, 11/24 experts at gold derby including Sasha still listing is at the favorite.
Maybe I just don’t have the link… Oh well… For updates, it seems this is as good a place as any: https://twitter.com/stevepond
Lol, apparently they’re intentionally delaying the NYC show so that they don’t finish up first again this year. Bummer about the link. I remember watching it last year, so it’s odd that they wouldn’t stream it again this year.
I guess it’s NOT streamed. The link must be fake, it seems. Somebody at IMDb pointed that out.
I agree it wouldn’t change the front-runner. But I believe it would narrow the “gap” (it’s not really a gap, it’s probably pretty small as it is) between Birdman and Boyhood a little bit…
“Just it beating Budapest would be a sign of support, albeit not as much as if it would beat both.”
That would certainly be an interesting and shocking result, but it wouldn’t really change anything in terms of the frontrunner for Picture or Original Screenplay. Again, without it having to go up against the frontrunner (Birdman), it would merely say that they like it the most out of the five that obeyed their silly rules.
Just it beating Budapest would be a sign of support, albeit not as much as if it would beat both.
For as much as I liked “Boyhood”; how original was it really?
“Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Birdman” are far more unique, interesting and entertaining. I know that “Birdman” was ineligible for this award for whichever reason so that basically means “Grand Budapest Hotel” is the only logical choice for the award in my opinion.
“However, if Boyhood won WGA, it could improve its Best Picture chances albeit just barely (it anything it would show that there is higher guild support for the film, see Braveheart).”
It’s really hard to compare this instance to Braveheart. It did indeed win the WGA, but then it went up against almost all different nominees at the Oscars. My main point is that Boyhood wouldn’t win the WGA with Birdman in the picture (and probably still won’t even with it removed). If we had a WGA result in which it did somehow manage to beat Birdman AND Budapest, then we’d be looking at something a little different, but unfortunately we won’t get to see if it would happen.
🙂 We said the same thing, more or less…
“The thing is, even if Boyhood were to somehow miraculously win with the WGA, just like with Grand Budapest Hotel’s impending win, it wouldn’t mean anything, not without having to go up against Birdman.”
I agree it wouldn’t mean TOO MUCH, but I wouldn’t say it would mean nothing… It would be a strong indication of support for the movie (by awarding it for one of its least liked – given precursor results – nominated aspects) to beat the favorite, The Grand Budapest Hotel. Not enough for it to all of a sudden be the favorite over Birdman at the Oscars, but enough to make this two horse race even closer than it is right now.
For the record (I don’t remember if I mentioned this or not): I still have the feeling it’s going to happen, that Boyhood will win the WGA tonight. My pessimism has not diminished…
@Hawkeye
“The thing is, even if Boyhood were to somehow miraculously win with the WGA, just like with Grand Budapest Hotel’s impending win, it wouldn’t mean anything, not without having to go up against Birdman.”
Yes, it’s possible that Birdman would win the Oscar without a WGA screenplay nomination. However, if Boyhood won WGA, it could improve its Best Picture chances albeit just barely (it anything it would show that there is higher guild support for the film, see Braveheart).
The thing is, even if Boyhood were to somehow miraculously win with the WGA, just like with Grand Budapest Hotel’s impending win, it wouldn’t mean anything, not without having to go up against Birdman. As I’ve said before, if Birdman were included, it would more than likely win here (all six eligible screenplays that have won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice have gone on to win the WGA for the last decade).
“My point, which apparently, has been lost, is that winning Best Picture without a director, screenplay, and editing nomination is rare, but winning Best Picture and failing to win the PGA, SAG Ensemble,DGA, and WGA is even rarer. In other words, Birdman’s disabled is less crippling than Boyhood’s disability.”
Nah, that’s just the part we agree on… 🙂 But it’s OK! I won’t insist.
“@Greg – It’s really hard to compare the Oscar race from 1986 or 1982 to today’s race when several of today’s precursor awards did not exist, had a longer Oscar campaign season, and were voted using weighted ballot. We do not know if the acting branch (reflects SAG) or producers branch (reflects PGA) helped Out of Africa win Best Picture. And with the weighted ballot, it would have made it possible all the more than today’s preferential system.”
I am not going to disagree with any of that. Nobody knows if OOA or COF or GSOE would have won the PGA or SAG Ensemble, if they existed.
My point, which apparently, has been lost, is that winning Best Picture without a director, screenplay, and editing nomination is rare, but winning Best Picture and failing to win the PGA, SAG Ensemble,DGA, and WGA is even rarer. In other words, Birdman’s disabled is less crippling than Boyhood’s disability.
FTR, I have not seen Boyhood and loved, loved Birdman.
“There are other reasons that the editing snub may have gotten help from other factors.
From 1983 until 2004, 20 of the 22 Best Picture winners reaped the most/or tied for most nominations.
Oscar move to February solidified guild choices more than often. Nowadays, a Halle Berry or Bravheart win would be harder to accomplish in so little Oscar voting time.
Weighted ballot made it easier for films to win via acting branch plus one/two other branchs majority (see Crash and Shakespeare in Love).”
Excellent arguments, all! I love your posts, BIRDIENEST81, they make so much sense to me! 🙂 And they’re always informative, too, they always contain at least 1-2 important points I hadn’t considered in quite that same light before…
“Wow, you really think Claudiu has some deep seeded hatred of Boyhood? Really?”
I’ve said all season long that Boyhood is in my top 3-4 movies of the year (while Birdman is my no.1). Besides, I doubt he meant me with that comment. 🙂 He was just speaking in general…
“We do not know if the acting branch (reflects SAG) or producers branch (reflects PGA) helped Out of Africa win Best Picture.”
Exactly. And, numbers-wise, that’s WAY over half the mutual voters (out of the triple crown + WGA), due to the SAG’s massive overlap.
“Since Inarritu won the DGA, has anyone really called ”Boyhood” the ”FAVORITE on Oscar night”?”
Some have. 🙂 As recently as today, though more implicitly than explicitly. Not you, though, WW, I’m not saying that.
But Boyhood does need the WGA, statistically-speaking – otherwise, it’s got an even bigger hurdle to overcome than just not getting any of the triple crown titles. Which it still could overcome… but it would get that much harder to bet on it doing so… It’s not make-or-break, but it its very, very important.
“We haven’t mentioned the most nominations stat into the mix. is this relevant you think?”
Well, I looked into this (as in I checked the stats) last year (as 12 Years wasn’t most nominated) and two years ago (Argo was in the same situation), and my conclusion was that it really does seem that, both under the preferential system (which makes sense, because the consensus movie wins, not necessarily the movie with the most 1st places, which the most nominated movie is probably more likely to get than others, all other factors and specifics aside), and recently, as opposed to a longer time ago, being the most nominated movie is less likely to win than before, when this rule of thumb became famous. I’m sure it can’t hurt to have broader 1st place support :), but I doubt it’s a very important factor these days. You probably should be among the top 3, so as to have evidence of support from enough branches, especially the big ones, but even that isn’t absolutely necessary with the preferential, it seems. You don’t need all the branches to give you a majority of 1st places, you just need them to put you in the top 2 or top 3 more than everything else – which is probably entirely feasible for movies that are (were) as universally liked as Boyhood (or Argo). Which doesn’t make Boyhood the favorite, but what I’m saying is I don’t think the 6 vs 9 nominations thing is a very important clue. The guild results are by far the more important clues…
“you can claim Boyhood should win, and it certainly could win, it’s just hard to twist the stats to claim it’s still the favorite to do so.”
Yup, that’s exactly what I mean.
There are other reasons that the editing snub may have gotten help from other factors.
From 1983 until 2004, 20 of the 22 Best Picture winners reaped the most/or tied for most nominations.
Oscar move to February solidified guild choices more than often. Nowadays, a Halle Berry or Bravheart win would be harder to accomplish in so little Oscar voting time.
Weighted ballot made it easier for films to win via acting branch plus one/two other branchs majority (see Crash and Shakespeare in Love).
”It does if it’s gonna have any kind of a claim to be the FAVORITE on Oscar night…”
Since Inarritu won the DGA, has anyone really called ”Boyhood” the ”FAVORITE on Oscar night”?
I think the consensus of pundits is that ”Birdman” has the edge over ”Boyhood.” So ”Birdman’s” the favorite.
For the record, I’m picking the historically problematic ”Imitation Game” to win Adaptation.
“So unless you’re a ”Boyhood” hater, let’s not set up some straw-man scenario that this is another nail in its coffin.”
Wow, you really think Claudiu has some deep seeded hatred of Boyhood? Really?
@Greg
It’s really hard to compare the Oscar race from 1986 or 1982 to today’s race when several of today’s precursor awards did not exist, had a longer Oscar campaign season, and were voted using weighted ballot. We do not know if the acting branch (reflects SAG) or producers branch (reflects PGA) helped Out of Africa win Best Picture. And with the weighted ballot, it would have made it possible all the more than today’s preferential system.
We haven’t mentioned the most nominations stat into the mix. is this relevant you think?
Braveheart won WGA & had most nominations for Oscars.
Claudiu puts it perfectly- you can claim Boyhood should win, and it certainly could win, it’s just hard to twist the stats to claim it’s still the favorite to do so.
The editing thing is hard to assess as Birdman has made a virtue of the single take special effect rather than traditional editing.
Hanging your hat on BAFTA and GG instead of the PGA/DGA/SAG combo seems like wishful thinking
My predictions align with the majority here — The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Since Boyhood has yet to win a major (televised) award for its screenplay, even at shows where Linklater’s direction and the film itself won, I think that trend will continue for the rest of the season. It sucks for Linklater that his chances for an Oscar win in any of the three categories are diminishing, as shocking as that seems. But for WGA, I’m going with Budapest. And I agree the big showdown will be between Budapest and Birdman for the Oscar. Budapest is the quirky choice of the year and may turn out to be this year’s Gravity or Cabaret — the big overall winner, including at least one above-the-line win, without taking Best Picture. Seems doable but hard to believe. But then it’s hard to imagine Birdman winning Picture without at least two major wins like Director and Screenplay (and even then, no individual acting wins, especially for Keaton, will feel odd, but so it goes).
For Adapted, it may be wishful thinking, but I think it will go to Imitation here and at the Oscars. Imitation did better at the Oscar nominations (Director) than BAFTA anyway. Sniper and Theory, BAFTA be damned, aren’t good enough. Whiplash — I woudn’t hold my breath, and even I think, setting aside all the BS and even my preference for Whiplash overall, the Imitation script is smarter.
“”Boyhood” doesn’t NEED to win WGA.”
It does if it’s gonna have any kind of a claim to be the FAVORITE on Oscar night… Of course it can still WIN without it, but it would definitely be more of a long shot than before.
“So unless you’re a ”Boyhood” hater, let’s not set up some straw-man scenario that this is another nail in its coffin.”
Yeah, but, see, it WOULD be, though. “No film has lost PGA, SAG, DGA & WGA and won BP. Ever” – what say you? Whereas, right now, at least there’s the Braveheart precedent, controversial though it may be…
“American Sniper does have a GOOD shot at winning, because it’s up for Best Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and very fresh in voters minds.”
If that’s all, then it’s still in 2nd place at best, especially with the screenplay failing to win anything (that I know of) anywhere, and didn’t even get nominated for the Scripter (the winner of the WGA’s Adapted Screenplay award is included in the nominees almost all of the time). The three instances (since they started having nominees) are all bizarre ones to boot. They didn’t nominate The Departed, Sideways, or Traffic, all great screenplays, unlike American Sniper, which would be their worst choice for the last several years.
“You have to look at LONG TERM trends, not short-term ones.”
Questionable in and of itself (trends change, much more so long term than short term), but what’s more important is that there IS NO long-term stat regarding the 4 awards mentioned, not longer than 20 years. So you’re suggesting I look at something that doesn’t exist over something that does exist. And, clearly, like I said, saying a movie has won without big guild wins before is silly, because it’s simply NOT THE SAME to have to win 1/2 (none of which is, technically, a best picture award) as it is to have to win 1/4 (one of which is). So the stat is and can only be applicable since 1996. There’s NO long term stat I should be looking at instead of this one, since there are simply NONE that are in any way equivalent to it, but older.
Also: 20 years is pretty long term. If you just eliminate every stat because it’s not 80 years old, you won’t be left with much and will, in fact, if you base your BP predictions on only those stats for awards that have existed since the early 1930s, be doing quite poorly, I can tell you right now. Even if you eliminate every stat that’s not at least 30 years old, you’ll still be doing waaay sub-par. No PGA, no SAG, no BAFTA pre-Oscars, no BFCA… 🙂 I think you’re just looking for a way to have the last word (you’ve picked the wrong guy to try to do that to, by the way), and making irrelevant arguments in the process.
”Boyhood” doesn’t NEED to win WGA. And it hasn’t won any major screenplay awards all season (except tying with ”Birdman” at Boston Society of Film Critics). I love ”Boyhood,” but its dialogue isn’t its most outstanding feature. And according to interviews with Hawke and Arquette, Linklater had a scenario of what he wanted to happen, and was open to changes, but some of the dialogue IS improvised. And as you can see by the poll on this site, two-thirds of us are NOT expecting it to win. So unless you’re a ”Boyhood” hater, let’s not set up some straw-man scenario that this is another nail in its coffin. Frankly, I’m rooting for Wes Anderson to win for ”Grand Budapest.” Interestingly, both Anderson and Linklater are 3-time WGA nominees who’ve never won.
As Claudiu said, you’re wrong Greg. Can’t count the SAG stat when it wasn’t around. That would be kind of ridiculous.
I still haven’t seen anyone argue that the trifecta PGA/DGA/SAG is NOT the strongest predictor.
Love Boyhood all you like but it’s less likely to win. That doesn’t mean it definitely loses, it’s just less likely to win
@Claudiu Cristian Dobre
I admitted in my original reply that Boyhood’s odds of winning Best Picture become significantly lower, if it fails to win the WGA. Not trying to nitpick, but the Academy awards have been going on for over 80 years. The PGA awards began in 1989 aka 24 years old. You have to look at LONG TERM trends, not short-term ones.
OK, so it’s live streamed even – nice! 🙂 Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrgoctlLF9w
“He is correct in the narrow sense, but wrong in big picture sense.”
Come on, now you’re just nitpicking!… He’s correct in every sense – he didn’t make any big picture claims whatsoever. Everything he claimed is correct.
“Films HAVE won Best Picture without ANY major Guild wins.”
Even so, not since 1986, which is the relevant bit… Though, again, you’re just nitpicking, since it’s MUCH easier to win one out of FOUR guild awards, each for different aspects of the trade, than it is to win one out of only TWO, like Out of Africa would have had to do to – so it’s definitely NOT the same thing. It could have easily won the PGA, had it existed, and even the SAG Ensemble. Which is why it’s logical to consider this stat only since 1996, since the big 4 have all been awarded together.
@Hawkeye
“Not sure why anyone would pick Sniper here. Gone Girl has a better chance than it does, and both don’t have nearly as good a chance as Imitation Game.”
Other than Bowling for Columbine, name me a movie which won the WGA, but failed to land a Best Picture
and Best Screenplay nomination?
American Sniper does have a GOOD shot at winning, because it’s up for Best Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and very fresh in voters minds. The Imitation Game is my prediction, due to the Scripter win AND the 8 Oscar nominations, including Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing.
@Claudiu Cristian Dobre
He is correct in the narrow sense, but wrong in big picture sense. Films HAVE won Best Picture without ANY major Guild wins. They are rare and rarer than a Best Picture winner without a director, screenplay, and editing nomination, especially when you consider the addition of the PGA and SAG awards. At the moment, BOYHOOD only has the ACE and Patricia Arquette’s win at the SAG awards.
http://www.wga.org/wga-awards/awards-show-details.aspx
So the actual awards show starts 3h20′ from now, and we should know the winners what, 1 hour, 2 hours later?
I guess they’ll be posted either here:
https://twitter.com/wgawest
Or here:
https://twitter.com/wgaeast
Or on both pages, right? Or is there another Twitter page I should be following?
Also, for those who still think Keaton’s losing the Oscar has any bearing whatsoever on Birdman winning Best Picture or not, here’s what Gold Derby stats expert Paul Sheehan has to say about it:
“even if he, Stone and Norton all lose as we are predicting, that does not torpedo the Best Picture hopes of “Birdman.” Indeed, 36 of the 86 Best Picture winners to date (42%) did not win any acting awards, including two of the five films — “The Hurt Locker” (2009) and “Argo” (2012) — decided by preferential ballot under the newly expanded slate of nominees.”
42% (which, by the way, is almost identical as the percentage over the last 20 years, which I believe is 40%), statistically speaking, basically means whether it wins an acting award or not has pretty much no bearing whatsoever on any movie’s chances of winning Best Picture. The rest of the article is here: http://www.goldderby.com/news/8508/oscars-best-picture-boyhood-birdman-grand-budapest-entertainment-13579086-story.html
Yeah, these are kind of “duh” predictions. Grand Budapest Hotel has been in a solid 2nd place throughout the season, so it shouldn’t have any trouble winning here, especially with its competition removed (Birdman would easily win this if it were included). Adapted will probably go to The Imitation Game after having already won the Scripter (which has matched the Oscar the last four years in a row). Not sure why anyone would pick Sniper here. Gone Girl has a better chance than it does, and both don’t have nearly as good a chance as Imitation Game.
“Boyhood needs this one stat-wise
No film has lost PGA, SAG, DGA & WGA and won BP. Ever”
“@Andrew. Say hello to Out of Africa, Chariots of Fire, and The Greatest Show on Earth.”
Wrong – none of those lost ALL 4 (PGA+SAG+DGA+WGA), as the SAG awards, at least, did not exist yet at the time. The stat is correct the way Andrew phrased it – maybe with the specification that its premise (losing all 4 of those or not) is only applicable since 1996 -, and is extremely powerful.
We must sound like Boy-hungry vultures for saying this over and over about Boyhood absolutely needing the WGA win! 🙂 Like we sense Boy blood (due to it not being the favorite here) and can’t wait for it to lose, so we can eat its remains… but for me, at least, that’s not what this is about at all. I just want some effin’ clarity for once this season!…
Boyhood sweeps the critics, but Birdman immediately wins PGA, more or less out of nowhere, to make everything crazy. Then Keaton loses the SAG and people start reading all kinds of nonsense into that… Then Boyhood wins the ACE (and Birdman loses it) and, thus, stays in the hunt. Then Birdman gets the DGA, to seemingly clarify things, but Boyhood wins BAFTA to nevertheless maintain the suspense. And the editing snub lurks in the shadows all the way through – is it relevant this year, isn’t it?!… It’s just too crazy! At least if Boyhood loses tonight, as is (mostly) expected, I’ll KNOW I have to go with Birdman as my FINAL prediction. The editing stat, even if relevant, would clearly be trumped by the above stat Andrew mentioned, due to huge different in the number of voters involved, and the complete lack of exceptions in the 20 years in which it’s been applicable (whereas the editing snub at least has some exceptions in its history).
So, again, I definitely have no problem with Boyhood winning BP, or even with it being the favorite, and I’d love it if it was (like if it’d won the DGA, at least, in addition to the BAFTA), and I could just predict it and move on. And I don’t even have a problem with it being named the best original screenplay – I don’t think it’s far from being that at all, in Birdman’s absence. I would just hate it if this close race would mess up the BP stats for the future (by having Boyhood win, despite not being THE no.1 favorite to do so). I definitely don’t want that. Which is why I’m so hungry for at least a little bit of clarity – and a Boyhood loss here would provide that, at last…
@Andrew. Say hello to Out of Africa, Chariots of Fire, and The Greatest Show on Earth.
But I do agree that Boyhood’s chances of winning do get significantly LOWER, if it doesn’t win the WGA this weekend, and would definitely secure Birdman as the film to beat. I might even move it from 2nd place to 3rd place, and have TGBH move up.
We can’t talk about the rarity of winning Best Picture without director, screenplay, and editing nominations, but I would argue it is EVEN rarer for a film to win Best Picture without a PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, and WGA.
Boyhood needs this one stat-wise
No film has lost PGA, SAG, DGA & WGA and won BP. Ever
“Theory of Everything […] But that is a much worse movie than Imitation Game”
No, actually, it’s the other way around…
“and to award its screenplay of all things at Bafta was ridiculous.”
Awarding The Imitation Game’s screenplay at the Scripter was the real travesty… What was that, like, most interesting story and least interesting, cliche-ridden dialogue, to go with it? What were they thinking?! At least Theory, while not being anywhere near the best adapted screenplay in this or any year, mostly (I emphasize mostly) avoids cliches, and isn’t in-your-face bad. It might not be as complex as some would have wanted, but at least it’s not a complete joke, like The Imitation Game’s… But, of course, over American Sniper, anything’s preferable!
American Sniper, really? Is this because Captain Phillips won it last year or something? With that one, all I can say is that at least its reviews were much better than Sniper’s. By the way, I think the Brits are being allowed off the hook real easy for shutting out TIG, and I think they’re doing it because it makes them look bad. Really, they’re at fault for what they did to Alan Turing and they don’t like that, preferring the much easier Theory of Everything, which of course doesn’t blame them for anything. But that is a much worse movie than Imitation Game, and to award its screenplay of all things at Bafta was ridiculous. I think there’s something else at work there and I don’t think it’s the so-called controversy of not having any sex scenes in it- I think it’s because they don’t like how it makes them look. The Queen still refused just recently to give Turing a royal pardon.
So the BP winner has either won a WGA award (Crash, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker and Argo), or not been eligible for one (12 Years a Slave, The Artist, The King’s Speech), every time since 2006, right? Which is the year after the date switch, like you say. I guess this is even more important for Boyhood than I thought… Of course, you have to figure The Artist probably wouldn’t have won the WGA anyway, even had it been eligible, but, still…
So, a surprise win here would help Boyhood, but perhaps still not push it in front of Birdman (The Social Network won one of these too, after all, as did Brokeback Mountain, for example). A loss, however, would be pretty bad, statistically speaking – I think if the voters feel the consensus for BP is Boyhood right now, they’re just going to pick it for the WGA as well almost every time, regardless of its performance with the precursors… Like they did with Argo, which had also not won anything major in that category before (well, the Scripter, but that was also likely due to the bandwagon effect, which had already started by then) AND with The Departed (also hadn’t won anything major for its screenplay).
“I really don’t want to see American Sniper win for that screenplay, it would be beyond appalling.”
Agreed.
BERLIN FILM FESTIVAL WINNERS
Golden Bear (Best Film)
Jafar Panahi, “Taxi”
Silver Bear (Grand Jury Prize)
Pablo Larrain, “El Club”
Silver Bear (Best Director) ex-aequo
Radu Jude, “Aferim!”
Malgorzata Szumowska, “Body”
Silver Bear (Best Actor)
Tom Courtenay, “45 Years”
Silver Bear (Best Actress)
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Silver Bear (Best Screenplay)
Patricio Guzman, “The Pearl Button”
Silver Bear
Alfred Bauer Prize for a feature film that opens new perspectives
“Ixcanul”
Silver Bear
Outstanding Artistic Contribution in the categories camera, editing, music score, costumes or set design
ex-aequo
Sturla Brandth Grovlen, Cinematographer, “Victoria”
Sergey Mikhalchuk and Evgeniy Privin, Cinematographers, “Under Electric Clouds”
Best First Feature Award
Gabriel Ripstein, “600 Miles”
Audi Short Film Award
Momoko Seto, “Planet Sigma”
Golden Bear (Best Short Film)
Na Young-kil, “Hosanna”
Silver Bear Jury Prize (Short Film)
Joanna Arnow, “Bad At Dancing”
I’d also like to add that perhaps the reason there are two separate screenplay categories is because they don’t want to try to compare apples to oranges, but I don’t think it’s that difficult. Also, the screenplay is the film on paper anyway, so if we can compare all films to each other, we should be able to have just one screenplay category.
Wouldn’t it be better if the 5 screenplays nominated for either the WGA, Oscars, or just in general were?:
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
I’d vote for The Grand Budapest Hotel
These screenplay awards are always difficult to predict, since it’s not about the production value or acting value of the film. It’s about the impact of the script and the ability to tell a well told story. I feel the two best screenplays of the year are Gone Girl and The Grand Budapest Hotel. So they should win, and still might. But I have to ask then, where does that leave Boyhood? If people agree that The Grand Budapest Hotel had the best screenplay, then how can we truly say that Boyhood is the better film?
I really don’t want to see American Sniper win for that screenplay, it would be beyond appalling.
Original Screenplay? As much as I want Wes to nab this award both tonight and at the Oscars, a win for Boyhood would be good for its Oscar chances and a recognition for a wonderful script, capable of capturing the most ordinary and simple moments of life.
Yo, happening now ==> https://twitter.com/berlinale
Oooops. Nevermind. I just answered my own question.
“That means that in the Adapted screenplay category, barring some freakish occurrence, either The Imitation Game or American Sniper are the only two scripts in the adapted category that can win tonight.”
Wouldn’t Whiplash count too as a possibility? Not that I am advocating for it.