“I talked to my friends in the Academy and none of them are voting for Boyhood,” an Academy member told me. Actually, I don’t think of him as an Academy member but a smart, funny, engaged, curious filmmaker. His information greatly disappointed me. I tried not to be an asshole about it but you know, some things really can’t be kept in. The thing about the awards race that will always confound me is that people don’t vote on it like they’re choosing “the best” or the “highest achievement.” They pick what they like best. It’s as simple as that. Everything else they characterize as “noise.”
“I’m picking Whiplash for number one, Selma for number two and Birdman for number three,” he said.
“Why don’t you just put Birdman at number one and be done with it,” I said, knowing that neither Whiplash nor Selma will ever get near enough votes to put them over the top. With a preferential ballot it’s a two, sometimes three, picture race. Whichever comes in at number 1 or 2 or three tends to stay there. Isn’t it funny how Unpredictable people are?
No one voting for Boyhood? This again? It seems like every year there is the film voters SHOULD pick and the film voters just pick because they don’t want to pick the frontrunner. We’ll never know if everyone thought Birdman would win coming out of Telluride, or if the Globes and the Critics Choice had picked Birdman, thrusting it into the spotlight as “the frontrunner” whether it would still be a done deal.
Somehow, Birdman became the little movie that could that industry voters liked and Boyhood became the MEAN OLD FRONTRUNNER easily taken down as multitudes of men chanted quietly, to each other, “if you take out the 12 years thing it isn’t anything special.” To my mind, if you take out the camera trickery in Birdman you essentially have a very good stage play. Back in the 1980s that wouldn’t have been thought of as cinema but in 2015, it’s the closest thing show people have to seeing the selves they recognize and like. As good as Birdman is, and it is very very good, it simply can’t top Boyhood in terms of ambition or execution.
But it isn’t for me to say. This voter, this friend of mine, believed Birdman to be the better film in terms of cinema. The whole industry seems to agree from producers to actors to sound people and tonight, to cinematography. I don’t even know the results of the ASC but I know how it will go. I’m not sure how much longer the self-congratulation thing is going to go on but I console myself with the BAFTA having open out. Now I know for a certainty that British people, if they aren’t smarter than Americans, are certainly less self-absorbed than the American film industry which can’t seem to break free of its own image in the mirror.
You want to win an Oscar? Make a movie about show people. Make it funny. Make it sexy. Make them look really really good — or if not good, at least noble. They are fighting the good fight, standing up for true art and all of that. At least, that’s what they want the awards to be about: themselves. If they really admired standing up for true art they would reward the true art itself, and not the one about the artists trying to make true art.
“How many did you talk to,” I asked, wondering just how many precious minutes of my short life I was going to have to spend thinking about what these people are going to do with their votes. “About fifteen,” he answered back.
The same week, the Los Angeles Times had posted a cock tease article that said two voters WERE voting for Boyhood. One was voting for Grand Budapest Hotel. Not a Birdman supporter in sight. But faithful to the notion that they can’t really be doing this to Richard Linklater, and that they can’t really walk by one of the most beautifully made American masterpieces of naturalist cinema, here is Entertainment Weekly, putting their faith that Boyhood WILL win and Inarritu will keep up the tradition in the directing category. The Gurus of Gold put on a brave face and do that wonderful thing we pundits do when all hope is lost – grab onto the rope and hang on more tightly.
Boyhood is not winning this thing and Linklater isn’t winning director. They have put their full and unanimous support around Birdman and that, really, is that. I do love the moment when hope is kept alive. Hope is a beautiful thing. Emily D put it best:
“Hope” is the thing with feathers –
That perches in the soul –
And sings the tune without the words –
And never stops – at all –
And sweetest – in the Gale – is heard –
And sore must be the storm –
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm –
I’ve heard it in the chillest land –
And on the strangest Sea –
Yet – never – in Extremity,
It asked a crumb – of me.
So when I read that Dave Karger and Anne Thompson and Peter Travers are still predicting Boyhood to win it gives me hope – that tricky thing with feathers. Boyhood would be a great thing for the Academy to stop staring at themselves and look upward and outward at life and art and all beautiful things that can be made by someone who took such care to make them.
I won’t predict Birdman but you should. The question is, how many Oscars is it going to win? When Grand Budapest won the Writers Guild it seems to have enough momentum to carry on through to the big night. That would leave Birdman with:
Picture, Director, Cinematography, one of the sound awards maybe.
And then the Oscars might look like:
Birdman: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Editing or Mixing
Theory of Everything: Actor, maybe score, maybe adapted screenplay
Grand Budapest: Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup, maybe score
Sniper: Maybe editing, maybe sound
Imitation Game: Maybe adapted screenplay
Whiplash: Maybe adapted screenplay, maybe editing, supporting actor
Boyhood: Supporting Actress, maybe editing
Selma: Song
And with that, I’m ready to dub this year among the worst years of Oscar watching I have personally ever had. Never have the Oscar voters and the industry voters seemed to narrow-minded and closed off from everything else happening and evolving around them. Never have they seemed so small.
But hey, there’s always next year. A poll.
What film will win Best Picture?
(polls)
Bryce, I agree with you re: Prisoners. I want something structurally clean and thematically dark for Sicario. I want it REALLY dirty.
Kiefer — don’t get me wrong — I wasn’t criticizing Boyhood when I said it was like an undirected home movie, but just making an observation about how “low key” it comes across.
Over and over the Academy has shown that it likes being hammered over the head, and rewarding films for their most obvious achievements, and punishing films whose achievements are subtle. The action film with the most cuts gets the editing award. the film with the lushest prettiest pictures gets cinematography. The scenery chewing actor wins over the actor who appeared to “do nothing”. And with direction, Birdman is showier in how it is directed, so it seems more likely to me that Inarritu will win that if there is a Pic/Director split.
“Plus, Boyhood doesn’t really need to win Best Picture. That film will live on for the ages.”
I know, right?! But, when I say it, people get offended and call me ignorant…
Haven’t seen boyhood yet but birdman is just a fine film with several great performances. If it should win an Oscar it must be the acting category
SCOTT: THE OTHER ONE – “Boyhood almost looks like an undirected home movie”
I will agree, the movie does meander a bit . . . but I think that is part of its charm and allure. I think it is intentionally directed that way. It seems so natural, and the characters so real . . . that’s a very hard feat to pull off for a director. I guess that’s why I think he’s a lock. Also, the dedication by Linklater to pull off this movie has to be admired . . . and I think it will be. DGA may have gone for Innaritu . . . but the directors branch is a very small branch of AMPAS, and I think Linklater’s film has more likeability (breadth of appeal) than Innaritu. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy both are nominated. My big wish, though is that “The Grand Budapest Hotel” wins Best Picture, “Boyhood” wins Best Director, and “Birdman” wins Best Screenplay. Totally spread the wealth around. I’d be ecstatic if there was a split with the 3 big awards.
And off topic a little bit from Best Picture. But my boss just saw “Selma” this weekend (admittedly, I have not seen the film), and he said it was CRIMINAL and UNJUSTIFABLE that David Oyelowo was not nominated for Best Actor this year. And he sees a movie every week. An observation like that I pay attention to . . . will try to catch “Selma” this weekend before awards time.
Didn’t we do this in 2013? The whole thing of folks going “everyone I know is voting for Riva” and it turned out to be nothing?
“Wes Anderson HAS to win something even if it’s just for the pleasure of hearing his acceptance speech.”
Yeah, I know. He’s awesome. But relax, he is going the screenplay award.
Wes Anderson HAS to win something even if it’s just for the pleasure of hearing his acceptance speech.
”Clearly people’s problem isn’t “Birdman winning”. It’s “Boyhood losing”. There would be hatred towards any movie who stole Boyhood’s thunder. Had TGBH won the guilds, people would attack it for beating Boyhood.”
Speaking for myself, I actually DO have a problem with ”Birdman” winning. But it’s not for the reason you might guess. There are those who find ”Birdman” pretentious, contrived and self-consciously artsy. But my bigger problem is its condescending depiction of New York theater, which I love. It’s a movie made by people who don’t know how Broadway works (i.e., the Times critic doesn’t attend the opening night to review a show; she’d go to a press preview). That said, I happen to think that ”Boyhood” is the superior movie. Its detractors whine that it wouldn’t be anything special if it weren’t filmed over 12 years with the same cast, but the reality is that it WAS. And no one, until Linklater, ever did this before in a 3-hour fictional feature. Oscar or no Oscar, ”Boyhood” has made cinema history. As for ”Grand Budapest Hotel,” I’d be happy, too, if Wes Anderson’s fun and fanciful farce won Best Picture.
Benutty
SICARIO sounds absolutely wonderful from top to bottom. Let’s just hope that the second edition of the Villeneuve/Deakins collaboration is more in line with the structural rigor of ENEMY and POLYTECHNIQUE than with the embroidery and overemphasis of PRISONERS.
Keifer — Why do you think Linklater is a lock?
If there is a split, I’ve been leaning to Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director. Birdman is the more “obviously directed” film. Boyhood almost looks like an undirected home movie, whereas the intrusion of the Director into the vision of Birdman is very apparent.
So just wodnering what your theory is about Linklater for Director.
It pains me, but I’m slowly, however, moving towards predicting Birdman for BP and Director, after resisting this for so long. The across the board guild wins, plus the type of movie that Birdman as (versus Boyhood) lead to this result. I’m not saying anything new here — just that it has taken me a while to bring myself round to this outcome. I’d far rather Boyhood wins, but I’m very influenced by some of the people here who have written about how un-Hollywood it is, and how the Academy never crowns as BP those small, indie, low budget, non-Hollywood critics’ darlings.
If the “unbroken” guy Dave Karger is predicting Boyhood to win is the confirmation it will lose. That pundit lost all credibility when he stayed on that train, even when the bad reviews came.
My predictons this year kind of reminds me of 1967 . . . the movie where “The Graduate” won its ONLY Oscar for the late, great Mike Nichols.
Linklater for Best Director / Arquette for BSA. I think these are locks.
It’s kind of fun to have a competitive year again, though, yes?
I think “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is going to win this year.
Just a hunch. It seems like the kind of movie that appeals to AMPAS voters. It got oodles of nominations, is loved by the guilds, and most importantly, just won WGA. It might be a trade-off . . . but I think there are enough AMPAS members to put it at No. 1 or No. 2 to push it over the top.
Linklater, however, I think is unstoppable for Best Director. He deserves it for “Boyhood”.
DANNY: “The knock against Innaritu was always that he made pretentious, ultimately hollow movies”
Then these people need to see Innaritu’s Spanish film “Biutiful” with Javier Bardem. This movie is anything but pretentious and hollow.
It’s a moving, complex and heartbreaking piece of astonishing filmmaking. One of my favorite movies of the last decade, and one which I thought Bardem should have won Best Actor. Heh, at least he was nominated, thank god.
re: Sorrentino^^^ I mean “return to English” not debut
Still predicting AMERICAN SNIPER for best pic. My wish, if this BIRDMAN win is indeed happening, is it at least secures Keaton best actor.
Directed at those transitioning this thread into a Most Anticipated of 2015 conversation, here’s what I’m looking forward to the most (there’s a lot I’m looking forward to):
The obvious: Knight of Cups, The Sea of Trees, Carol, Macbeth, The Revenant, The Martian
But also:
– SICARIO: Villeneuve directing Blunt, Del Toro and Brolin with Deakins back on the lens and Johannsson scoring.
– MILES AHEAD: Cheadle writing for and directing himself as Miles Davis with McGregor in support.
– MORE JAKE GYLLENHAAL: Everest, Southpaw, Demolition
– THE RETURN OF RACHEL WEISZ: The Light Between Two Oceans, The Lobster, The Early Years
– SPEAKING OF THE EARLY YEARS, THE EARLY YEARS: Sorrentio’s English-language debut.
– THE LAST FACE: Penn directing Theron, Bardem and Exarchopoulos.
– EVERY THING WILL BE FINE: Wenders directing in 3D about grief starring McAdams, Franco and Gainsbourg with Desplat scoring and great reviews out of Berlin.
– SPEAKING OF GREAT REVIEWS OUT OF BERLIN, 45 YEARS: Haigh directing Berlin-winning performances by Rampling and Courtenay.
Al, I might be more fonder of Emmerich’s films than your average AD reader, but I’m super curious to see what he does with the material.
Bryce, you’re mention of Stonewall is the first I’ve heard of it. It sounds interesting. But, I didn’t figure Roland Emmerich wanted to make a straight-up drama. I’ll put it on my list of 2015 movies to see. Right now I’m most looking forward to Black Mass, The Hateful Eight, and Southpaw.
What, am the only one looking forward to Emmerich’s STONEWALL?
Boring
Clearly people’s problem isn’t “Birdman winning”. It’s “Boyhood losing”. There would be hatred towards any movie who stole Boyhood’s thunder. Had TGBH won the guilds, people would attack it for beating Boyhood. And c’mon, it could be worse. Losing to Birdman is far less painful than losing to The Imitation Game or The Theory of Everything. Now THAT would be King-speechingly disappointing. Birdman can be a lot of things, but MEDIOCRE is not one of them. Nor is OSCAR BAIT.
“You want to win an Oscar? Make a movie about show people. Make it funny. Make it sexy. Make them look really really good — or if not good, at least noble. They are fighting the good fight, standing up for true art and all of that. At least, that’s what they want the awards to be about: themselves.”
Oh, you mean like “Me and Orson Welles”? 🙂 Didn’t even get a supporting nod for Christian MacKay.
Boyhood was my second favorite film of 2014 (behind Inherent Vice), and it will live as an extraordinary achievement. To be honest, I’m amazed we are even in a position to be upset if it doesn’t WIN best picture. It’s a little movie from a nothing studio, not much of a crowd pleaser (like all small movie Oscars usually are), and it’s almost 3 hours long. Not really checking many Oscar boxes.
Birdman would be a fine Best Picture winner. It would easily be the second best film of the 5 that have won this decade. It’s bold, entertaining, and memorable, if not the deep resonant work that Boyhood is. Plus, Boyhood doesn’t really need to win Best Picture. That film will live on for the ages.
Best Pictures of the Decade;
1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Birdman/Boyhood
3) The King’s Speech
4) Argo
5) The Artist
Gosh, I liked Whiplash but I don’t think that deserves a Best Picture award. The dynamic between Miles Teller and J. K. Simmons, though effective, was pretty obvious after the first half hour. And after the car crash the script lost credibility. Unlike others, I found the Carnegie Hall ending a letdown. So I personally would be disappointed if Whiplash won BP. I guess I’m rooting for Budapest, Selma, Boyhood, Birdman — any of these would be OK.
Hi there
It’s the first time for a long long time that i’m commenting here but i swear i read you every single day and i genuinely think that the Awards Daily Community is the most varied, diverse, insightful and prestigious awards community online!
This year i wanted to create for the first time a Simulated Oscar Ballot in the main Oscar categories for my italian peers…
Would You like to contribute to the final amount of European/Mediterranean vote? 🙂
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1q_tLHPfWk-r18AK-vu6KXqiYxKdQzZTdsaNrnYsbukU/viewform
The trick used to be not minding. Now it is to throw the toys out of the pram and have a bet each-way on who will win.
One academy member thinks is amazing of Whiplash wins? One member? Really? I wouldn’t put any stock in anecdotes- we’ve heard bad for Boyhood and bad for Birdman, who knows. Better to go on precursors than a handful of voter anecdotes.
In a preferential ballot in a tight race it’s the preference list that counts which might not be # 1’s so even you’re going to use a small number of voters, you’d need to know their #2, 3 etc for those that aren’t putting Birdman or Boyhood #1.
Whiplash is my #2 for the year. I wish it had of done better in the precursors. It has no chance of winning best picture tho.
Interesting is what Péter Hammond is saying :
“But does that mean — with all the guild results now in except for Costume Designers, who hold their awards show tomorrow — that Birdman is a sure thing for Oscar? No. This is still too tight a race and voting has been coming in extremely late this year. Oddly, when talking to members — some even casting their ballots as we speak — I don’t get a unanimous verdict on anything. Whiplash, in fact, remains the mentioned movie with those I talk to. One Academy member said, “It would be AMAZING if Whiplash wins. There will be many stroke victims in the audience”. This member voted for it across the board. And despite the guilds, that pair of triple BAFTA wins for both Boyhood and Whiplash carry significant weight.”
And Mark Harris :
“@MarkHarrisNYC: Most Oscar voters I’ve talked to aren’t voting for Birdman for Best Picture. The sense I get is that nothing has a majority, or close to it.”
Is a surprise coming ?
Apart from the guilds, another major factor for Birdman has been its emergence as THE boyhood alternative. I think boyhood benefitted earlier in the race by the lack of a single competitor, there was always several.
The editing nomination is explained by the particulars of the film. If there was nothing peculiar about the editing, the lack of editing nom would have been more a negative I think
Yup, the BP votes confirm it – in the US/Canada Boyhood got 50% more votes than Birdman (final counts, so this means number of higher placings), but in Europe it got only 10% more votes (same comment)…
I was looking at director, though. 🙂 But I think it’s relevant, nonetheless… I doubt that many people had splits on their ballots.
““The other thing I have noticed is that Boyhood performs a lot better that Birdman with international Academy members – that could be an important block.”
Interesting… the BAFTA win corroborates this. Does anybody have any (even just approximate) numbers on American vs. international Oscar voters?”
Update – the AD simulated ballot doesn’t confirm it, though, at least as far as Europe is concerned. Birdman actually got an extra 10% of votes in Europe, and Boyhood about 11-12% less, than in the US/Canada. So, unclear…
If I were an Academy member, I would vote for a film that moved me. Those films this year are Boyhood and American Sniper.
In Boyhood, seeing the little boy grow up before our eyes made the film that much more authentic. Seeing children whose parents are divorced and how they are shuttled between households, and all the confusion they go through as they grow up is all too common. As the Boyhood cast said at the BAFTA’s, it’s good to be recognized for a film that shows simple human interaction and how meaningful it can be.
Bradley Cooper in American Sniper was incredible, another moving performance.
It would be great for some upsets on Oscar night, but I’m not counting on it.
”I re-state my theory that Boyhood, if it loses, will NOT be forgotten.”
If it loses, ”Boyhood” won’t be forgotten because it’ll join the illustrious company of ”Brokeback Mountain,” ”The Social Network,” etc., contemporary classics that swept most of the critics’ prizes but didn’t win the Best Picture Oscar. And while one can dispute individual reviews, the fact is that it’s registered a 100% rating at Metacritic (”Birdman” has a 88%). Also: ”Boyhood” was No. 1 on 72 critics’ top 10 lists; ”Birdman” was No. 1 on just 12 of them.
”Opinions have no objective value, irrespective of who they come from.” That’s true of awards, too.
Whether you’re a voting critic or a voting Academy member, it’s a subjective call. It’s a consensus.
Of course, we root for our favorites. And different constituencies can yield different results.
Sometimes, we agree with the winners. Sometimes, we don’t. And that’s showbiz!
“This is really coming down to the wire! Even just earlier this evening an op-ed plant against “Boyhood” popped up on The Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/its-okay-if-you-didnt-like-boyhood_b_6694772.html”
Thanks for the link, man. The piece actually looks like a thesis. If someone is willing to write an article that long to trash a movie, he must fear something! 🙂
“Never have the Oscar voters and the industry voters seemed to narrow-minded and closed off from everything else happening and evolving around them. Never have they seemed so small.”
What in the world is Sasha Stone talking about? Please enlighten me. Is she still ticked that Selma didn’t get nominated for Best Director or Best Actor?
Say what you want about Birdman, but it didn’t have anything nearly as cringe-worthy as that scene in Boyhood in the unfinished house with Mason and his friends drinking with those older kids. I know Linklater likes using non-professionals, and in the case of Ellar Coltrane in worked, but good god were the kids playing those older kids awful. They were After School Special bad. It took me right out of the film. And it’s too bad too, because that is actually a very accurate and realistic scenario, the kids playing it were just terrible.
This is really coming down to the wire! Even just earlier this evening an op-ed plant against “Boyhood” popped up on The Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/its-okay-if-you-didnt-like-boyhood_b_6694772.html
why boyhood appears as frontrunner and has a red + as winner of the DGA?
Yet another year with the “Crash beats Brokeback Mountain” and “The King’s Speech beats The Social Network” case. But at the end of the day, who cares? Maybe it got the whole competition a bit more exciting, which is indeed odd – since when do we look forward for a upset so much that we suddenly decide to dismiss the film that might truly leave his page in the film history?
“My whole point has been what’s more likely. Calling Birdman a lock is not an accurate reading of the precursors”
I know. 🙂 That’s why I completely disagree with Missan calling you “not objective”…
“Birdman is a great ensemble but Keaton is the core of it. That is undeniable.”
Nothing is undeniable, ESPECIALLY when it comes to art.
Voting for Birdman without doing the same with Keaton is like voting The King’s Speech and not Colin Firth. Birdman is a great ensemble but Keaton is the core of it. That is undeniable.
Rob, that’s like saying that you can’t have a thoughtful discussion about multi-variate predictive analytics with regards to the oscars. Which we both know is a topic you would love, but regular folk may not. So my point is, it depends on whom you ask, and what their knowledge well contains.
Re Keaton, he’s great but doesn’t carry the film like Redmayne.
The ensemble in Birdman is outstanding and I think the supporting role of Galifanakas has been hugely underrated in the awards season
This is the best Oscars site around.
Sasha and Ryan’s passion is one of the good thing about this site, but it often turns into quite bitter posts, which I think aren’t necessary.
For once the race is between two films that a lot of posters here love, we should celebrate that
Claudiu, great summary above. SAG/PGA/DGA and the other guilds make Birdman more likely. GG/BAFTA/critics choice make Boyhood a formidable challenger that could still win.
My whole point has been what’s more likely. Calling Birdman a lock is not an accurate reading of the precursors
@Claudiu
I get that Sasha and Ryan are very passionate people when it comes to film. I don’t agree with them 100% of the time, but I also believe they are not arrogant people just because they love one film. The beauty about them is that they can be articulate in their passionate support for Boyhood without being ignorant to the facts or resorting to name calling (looking at Jeff Wells).
Outstanding post EDWARD AGUIAR DE ANDRADE!…
“For those of us who love Birdman this will be a great year for AMPAS if it wins.”
Hear, hear!
“When their favorite wins like Hurt Locker it’s all sweetness and light, when their favorite doesn’t, it’s evil AMPAS all the way, something is wrong, etc etc”
Yeah – more balance would be nice. It’s not a big deal, of course. I like passionate people. But I do hope the year comes when Sasha and Ryan (for example) don’t agree on the front-runner and how much they like it, because it’ll be an interesting change of pace. It’s sort of like that with Birdman this year, because Sasha really likes it, but Ryan hates it. Still, they both love Boyhood and think it should win, so the talk, naturally, revolves more around that one. Not many debates about Birdman… But I hope one day there are two front-runners, and Sasha loves one but hates the other, whereas Ryan has the exact opposite opinion. 🙂 It’d be an interesting season, I bet!
“Yeah because critics have never been wrong before. (The Night of the Hunter, Psycho, Fight Club, The Shining) […] Many people – critics, industry, members on here – clearly legitimately think that Birdman is the best movie of the year.”
Thank you, Patrick!…
“But there is objective truth, the truth is that Boyhoods critical acclaim is the highest its been in decades. That’s a fact.”
A fact that proves nothing, because opinions have no objective value, irrespective of who they come from. All people make mistakes, and even large groups of people (or smaller groups, but of very intelligent/qualified people) have made major mistakes in the past as well, this history shows beyond any reasonable doubt. Not saying Boyhood IS OR IS NOT the objectively best movie, just saying nobody will ever know, because the man has not yet been born that knows everything (or even 1% of everything, really) about the universe.
“These metacritic guys don’t have a clue. Gravity got a 96 for Christ’s sake!”
Good point. Gravity, with all its qualities, has flaws that are WAY too big for it to ever legitimately be considered a 9.6/10. They were clearly wrong there, if we’re going with the “objective truth exists” theory…
“Well, 12 Years a Slave got a 97”
The fact that they get it right a lot does not in any way prove that they’re infallible. The fact that they clearly HAVE overrated movies in the past – see Gravity example – DOES, however, prove that they AREN’T. They definitely do not hold a monopoly on objective truth, should such a thing even exist. Nobody does.
“Curious what your criteria is for a movie that “stands the test of time.” Because I would bet money both Boyhood and Birdman will be forgotten rather quickly.”
I re-state my theory that Boyhood, if it loses, will NOT be forgotten, no matter what, simply because too many people will forever be bitching about its undeservedly having lost BP. I doubt Birdman’s fans would be anywhere near as upset – it wasn’t the front-runner for 90% of the season, for one…
“But yeah, I don’t believe that the movie that STANDS THE TEST OF TIME has to be the “best” film of the year.”
Thank you, John! Neither do I. Nobody can say for sure what will stand the test of time or not… NOBODY.
“It’s ridiculous to vote on the basis of “which movie will best stand the test of time” since, unless you have a time machine, how the hell do you know the answer to this question? To use my previous example, many were shocked when Private Ryan lost in 1998 but looking back on it, Shakespeare In Love stands out as the better film. For all we know, Boyhood will (no pun intended) age terribly.”
I so agree with SiL being the better movie… it’s slowly becoming one of my all-time favorites…
“The list of films that haven’t won Best Picture Oscars is far superior to the list of those that have.”
Yeah, that’s actually because there’s hundreds of the former each year, but only ONE of the latter.
“I actually completely agree that this is what BOYHOOD is. But that’s why I don’t think it’s the Best Picture of this or any year. It would also make it that BOYHOOD is actually for people who want to see themselves, much like BIRDMAN is accused of being a film the Academy will like because it’s about themselves. I guess it all depends on who you are and if you want to see movies about yourself.”
Well said, Antoinette! Indeed, it’s quite clear that the (perhaps a touch exaggerated) love for Boyhood is as much subjective as the love for Birdman, and the fact that the former is more loved by critics in no way makes it superior (see above). Boyhood’s supporters can no more defend its (not many, but obvious) flaws than Birdman’s. Nor can they bring more (or more compelling) arguments for why it’s better. This much I’ve learned reading people’s heated debates this year…
““Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?)”
Ailidh, do you really believe there isn’t a woman alive who has ever said something like that? Try watching Joan Rivers or Sarah Silverman. The fact Watts said that and didn’t put up a stink probably shows she was cool saying it in the first place. I know I, along with many of my male friends, can be self-deprecating like that. Some of my female friends have said stuff like that as well. If we can’t laugh at ourselves…”
Yup… Another example of people accusing Birdman of certain things it does not being realistic, simply because they themselves have not yet come across those things in life… Like they do with the critic being too evil.
“and how can you not see Keaton’s performance and the film as utterly inseparable accomplishments?”
“Keaton IS Birdman.”
There are no fewer than six other characters just as interesting as Keaton’s in that movie. They all contribute. Keaton does not stand out THAT MUCH to me, and he’s not the best actor in it, either, I would say. Nor does he give the best performance of the movie. I can EASILY separate the movie and Keaton, and evaluate them on their own, while loving both (but the movie more than Keaton’s performance).
“Is there one poster out there who would vote for Birdman for Best Picture who would NOT vote for Keaton for Best Actor??? Just ONE??? If so, let me know why you are not voting for Keaton, yet you love the film. I’m just interested in what that thought process is.”
I just did.
“And how can someone who loved Birdman then mark their ballot for Redmayne in the boring, conventional, Oscar-bait Theory of Everything?”
Just because you don’t like it, it doesn’t mean it’s not good. Can you really not grasp that?
“Voting for Birdman as BP and not for Best Actor would be like voting for Sophie’s Choice for Best Picture but not for Meryl Streep — “Oh yeah, loved Sophie’s Choice, but Streep was just okay in it.” Huh?”
Actually, it’s not, because Streep was better than the movie, in that case. Keaton isn’t better than the movie Birdman. The fact that YOU THINK he’s better doesn’t make it so…
“Birdman 47.05% (343 votes)
Boyhood 43.35% (316 votes)
The Grand Budapest Hotel 4.53% (33 votes)”
AD’s votes on the poll in this thread, when I voted – these are finally looking a lot more like the right percentages. Probably still a few (at least 3-4) percent too much for Boyhood, and too little by the same amount for Birdman, but definitely in the ballpark.
“Well, Claudiu does give credits to Boyhood’s BAFTA, BFCA, ACE, and GG wins, but Birdman has support from the Hollywood business which has a bigger overlap (the critics awards don’t vote and BAFTA is only eight percent of AMPAS whereas DGA/SAG/PGA /WGA is roughly 25-30 percent).”
Absolutely. The overlap is the key here, but it doesn’t completely negate the importance of winning BFCA, GG and BAFTA. Not a lot of movies have lost with that combination either. Also, there’s the possibility that the editing snub actually DOES show lack of support. We can argue why it can’t be proved that it does show that (because of the special situation with Birdman’s editing techniques), but we can’t actually prove the opposite, either – that it DOESN’T show lack of support, because we can’t KNOW why they actually didn’t nominate it. Could be the weird editing thing, or could just be that they didn’t like it. The former seems more likely, but the latter is also very much possible as well. Only an actual nomination could have put this to rest completely. This stat should be taken very much with a grain of salt this year, BUT I don’t think you can ignore it altogether, for the reason I just stated.
Because it didn’t win any of the other 3 (GG, BAFTA, BFCA), Birdman is among the weaker triple-crown winners, right there with The King’s Speech and Apollo 13. We can’t know for sure whether it’s closer in strength to The King’s Speech (which also had BAFTA, and which won the Oscar) or Apollo 13 (which had no director nomination, similarly to Birdman, with its editing nomination, but without an equally good explanation to go along with it, and which lost the Oscar). Of course, Boyhood not winning the WGA brings it closer to The Social Network (it has BAFTA, but no WGA, whereas the latter had the opposite), but it’s still not completely clear whether it’s stronger or weaker.
Most of the evidence, and the stronger evidence, points to Birdman, but there is plenty of pretty strong evidence, albeit less convincing, that points to Boyhood. This is not a done deal. It doesn’t mean it’ll be close in the actual voting. It could be an easy win for either, as far as we know. It just means it likely IS close, as the stats are still rather reasonably split between the two favorites, with the edge for Birdman, stats-wise, being on the thin side, compared to the edge other favorites had in other years.
“Only one film has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Movie Award and the Bafta for both Director and Picture without repeating the win at the Oscar for both Best Picture and Director: Brokeback Mountain”
Exactly. That’s a pretty decent stat too. Not as strong as a 100% stat, which the 4-guild stat is, but far from neglectable. FAR from it.
“It’s one thing to root for the film you love, it’s another to ignore the precursors that matter most.”
Agreed. 🙂 But that doesn’t mean you should ignore the ones that matter less either. They matter LESS, not NOT AT ALL.
“PGA/DGA/SAG trio is a better predictor than BAFTA/GG/CC”
But not THAT MUCH BETTER. 🙂 It’s 100% to, like, 80-90%, or whatever that trio’s percentage is. It’s 30% overlap to 8% overlap in voters, not 100% overlap to 0% overlap. It’s NO EXCEPTIONS to ONE EXCEPTION. If Boyhood wins this year, the two stats instantly have pretty much the same record. Exactly as you put it, Andrew – definitely not a lock, just more likely. Possibly a lot more likely, but nowhere near a safe bet.
“You are not objective, like everyone else. You so want Birdman to win that you can’t accept that other people still believe in Boyhood’s victory. You call them some delusional that can’t accept the futur Birdman’s victory, and How they can dare to vote for Boyhood (like half of the experts on GoldDerby).”
I’m sorry, Missan, but you’ve misread Andrew. He’s anything but not objective.
“I’d say that’s a 100% lock, especially since the alternative is the biggest upset in over 25 years.”
Consider the above, Hawkeye… Birdman has to break some rather old trends to win too – not trends as strong as those Boyhood has to break, but still important ones. Let’s not get carried away! You can INTUITIVELY say Birdman is now a lock, but you can’t really back it up with the stats that it’s 100%, or even close to it. No movie has won without WGA, PGA/DGA/SAG before, but none has been as strong as Boyhood either, in terms of precursors, before. And Birdman is, again, among triple-crown winners, very much on the weakish side. Probably still pretty well above the line needed to be BP-material, but nowhere near as much as most of its triple-crown holding predecessors. Let’s not get completely hung up on ONE stat (NO stat is infallible, this must be clear to all), strong though it may be, and miss the overall picture! 🙂 There are pros and cons, and it’s far from certain that the pros outweigh the cons, as it would seem right now, given the information we have.
Besides, Budapest has the WGA. That one alone, Boyhood aside, makes this far from a lock…
“The fact is, most people tend to look at the stats which support a possible win for their favorites, and ignore those stats which do not support a win.”
Amen!…
“I mean, Birdman lost Best Comedy twice to The Grand Budapest Hotel.”
Yeah, and we all know how often the best comedy gets the Oscar…
“The other thing I have noticed is that Boyhood performs a lot better that Birdman with international Academy members – that could be an important block.”
Interesting… the BAFTA win corroborates this. Does anybody have any (even just approximate) numbers on American vs. international Oscar voters?
“And it’s the first time I’ve seen this split: ”Birdman” for Best Pic; Linklater for Director.”
Happened with at least one critics’ award as well, a lot earlier in the season, of course.
“When Grand Budapest won the Writers Guild it seems to have enough momentum to carry on through to the big night.”
No further comment on this tired subject, obviously…
“Now Sasha, won’t you feel silly writing this if Boyhood does defy the odds by winning Best Picture?”
She will be ECSTATIC…
@Scott
I’d vote for Birdman and Redmayne! 🙂 But then, I don’t equate Keaton with Birdman or vice versa. He was one element of the film, and actually one of the more mundane aspects, in my opinion. And Redmayne, whose movie was pretty much slickly produced garbage, was a revelation. Simple.
“But yea, the list really does go on and on… 😉
– the blend of literal and metaphorical
– afterlife themes
– zoarastrianism
– suicide themes
– social medias impact on entertainment
– narcisissim / ego
– impact of superhero movies on hollywood and its actors
– the role of critics in shaping the perceptions of others
– father daughter relationships
– the struggles people who have fallen from grace face
– impotency”
Apart from “narcissism/ego”, I would hardly think that BM delves into any of these topics with any degree of depth to offer a well rounded discussion or even thoughtful presentation. Like the PTSD aspect of American Sniper, it’s there and then pretty much ignored thematically. And the narcissism/ego aspect of this film is not very flattering to its creators.
WW
I saw the directors’ roundtable which was frustrating because the moderator kept sucking up to Angelina Jolie. He interrupted Linklater to ask a question to Tyldum who, instead of responding to the moderator asked Linklater a question! Nolan and Leigh made their admiration obvious too. Last year, my favorite film (12 Years was second) was Before Midnight. It’s a masterpiece too and has a 94 rating on Metacritic and neither Linklater nor the film were nominated (only the screenplay).
Let’s hope Inarritu’s reputation for being a total Ahole will deprive him of the votes of people who actually know him! Linklater’s an all-around, down-to-earth nice guy, something that – apparently – in Hollywood is less admired than a pretentious jerk playing the diva.
STEVEN KANE
FEBRUARY 16, 2015
“Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?)”
Ailidh, do you really believe there isn’t a woman alive who has ever said something like that? Try watching Joan Rivers or Sarah Silverman. The fact Watts said that and didn’t put up a stink probably shows she was cool saying it in the first place.
Watts has (recently) some good roles under her belt, but at the time she filmed Birdman she was coming off a monumental flop (Diana) and, at her age, can’t afford to alienate a director and his coterie of (Spanish mother tongue I presume) screenwriters. Gee, fellas, sharing a vagina? I think whoever wrote that line is a macho male who doesn’t know anything about women, sexually or otherwise – a problem when creating female characters.
1. I want Academy members to pick the films and performances they ‘like’ best. That’s what this is all about, isn’t it? When we all write up our own personal top-10s, top-20s, top-whatevers for the year, we just list our favourites in order and don’t (or shouldn’t) think about which is ‘more important.’ For instance, in my own personal 2014 list, I have Edge Of Tomorrow at #3. It sure wasn’t the third-most relevant or third-most important, or third-most “Academy-worthy” movie of the year, but damned if I didn’t have an absolute blast watching it. If Academy voters over the years had simply picked the film they enjoyed the most rather than falling into the usual Oscar-bait traps, I reckon the Best Picture list would be a lot stronger.
2. Birdman might be my favourite film of the year, so I’m happy to see it winning. Boyhood is #4 or #5 for me, so while I’d be perfectly happy and pleased to see it win Best Picture as well, Birdman is not a bad choice whatsoever. It’s apples-and-oranges this year….this isn’t a masterpiece losing to only a very good movie (i.e. Social Network losing to King’s Speech) or, even worse, a masterpiece losing to a mediocrity (i.e. Crouching Tiger losing to Gladiator).
3. It’s ridiculous to vote on the basis of “which movie will best stand the test of time” since, unless you have a time machine, how the hell do you know the answer to this question? To use my previous example, many were shocked when Private Ryan lost in 1998 but looking back on it, Shakespeare In Love stands out as the better film. For all we know, Boyhood will (no pun intended) age terribly.
But here is why this year may be the worst year in Oscar history, because a classic, clear as daylight, was released this year and the academy is too stupid or too full of themselves to pick it. To put in caps to make a point: BOYHOOD IS ONE OF THE MOST CRITICALLY ACCLAIMED MOVIES OF ALL TIME. There is no other rightful winner. Boyhood is objectively the best.
Picking Birdman, which has no where near the acclaim outside the industry, is just another black eye on the Academy if it wins, just like picking Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan (or even Thin Red Line, which was just as good).
I would love to see a list of how many “most critically-acclaimed movies of the year” have won Best Picture. I would guess the number is less than 15. Even when one of the all-time classics wins, it’s very possible that classic beat out another, arguably even better classic (i.e. All About Eve over Sunset Blvd is perhaps the best example of this). Also, you’re fighting an uphill battle still claiming that SIL was some kind of unworthy winner over Private Ryan….history has shown that was actually a pretty inspired choice.
@BIRDIENEST81
Yes, there are plenty of films that don’t win the Golden Globe but win Best Picture…just not in the COMEDY category. The last time that’s happened was Annie Hall. The King’s Speech was in the same category as The Social Network. Boyhood and Birdman were not in the same category.
“And every one of those winners since the expansion has ALSO won the Producers Guild award, as well (which BTW has correctly predicted the BP winner slightly longer).”
————————————–
Yep, that’s true. It’s pretty much going to be 100% the televised award shows vs. the guilds this year (even if Birdman won SAG ensemble, Boyhood did pick up an award at SAG, too).
“Also the critics don’t get to actually vote for the Oscars.”
—————————————-
Oh, believe you me, I certainly know that. 😉
Sasha! Thanks for the reply! Sign of respect, Alright alright alriiiight!
But yea, the list really does go on and on… 😉
– the blend of literal and metaphorical
– afterlife themes
– zoarastrianism
– suicide themes
– social medias impact on entertainment
– narcisissim / ego
– impact of superhero movies on hollywood and its actors
– the role of critics in shaping the perceptions of others
– father daughter relationships
– the struggles people who have fallen from grace face
– impotency
Boy, that was fun! Your turn!
So I finally watched ‘Boyhood’ and ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ Good films, both of them. But after further reflection and analysis of each film, I have to give the nod to ‘Birdman.’ I do think that there will be yet another split this year. ‘Birdman’ will take Best Picture, while ‘Boyhood’ takes Best Director. Also, I think if ‘Birdman’ continues its wave of momentum, Michael Keaton might just overtake Eddie Redmayne for Best Actor. I also just changed my pick for Best Sound Editing from ‘American Sniper’ to ‘Birdman’, but I kept Best Sound Mixing in favor of ‘American Sniper.’
The deciding factor for the split for me was the fact that Alejandro G. Iñarritu has swept the Guild Awards, but also the fact that Richard Linklater was able to create a masterful mosaic of the journey from adolescence into adulthood over a 12-year period! This has never been done in the history of film. That’s why I think the Academy will give the Golden Guy to Linklater in this case. Alejandro will take the statue for Best Original Screenplay and as a co-producer for Best Picture. I also think that the third major category (a Best Picture winner always has at least three) is Best Actor. Eddie Redmayne could still win, of course. But does the Academy have enough support for ‘The Theory of Everything’ that they do for ‘Birdman?’ Stranger things have happened. So far, here’s how I see the outcome unfolding:
BEST PICTURE: Birdman
BEST DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater – Boyhood
BEST ACTOR: Michael Keaton – Birdman (Eddie Redmayne is still ahead for now, though)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (no-brainer!)
BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore – Still Alice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (again, no-brainer)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Imitation Game
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Birdman
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: How To Train Your Dragon 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: CitizenFour
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Birdman
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST FILM EDITING: Boyhood
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Glory” – Selma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST SOUND EDITING: Birdman
BEST SOUND MIXING: American Sniper
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Interstellar
Pete proving once again that the Social Network dummy spits have nothing on the Boyhood ones!!
Scott, I get your confusion, which is why I think Keaton is still a chance. Redmayne is the favorite, and is clearly the more Oscar baity performance
At the end of the day, these things will be true
1. Linklater will be fine and will continue to make adventurous films. He’s already got a film in the can for release next year.
2. Inarritu will be fine and will be able to wear that moronic scarf to awards shows playing the auteur. Hopefully he’s not wasting Dicaprio’s time with that natural light shooting method he’s employing on the Revanant.
3. Keaton may or may not be fine, but if he doesn’t win, that was his one chance.
4. Del Toro will be the Depalma of the Three Amigos. Poor guy.
5. Apart from Soderbergh, none of the Indie revolutionaries from the 90’s will have a Best Director statue anytime soon.
6. Clint Eastwood will probably scramble to film, edit, and release a movie about Actors in order to jump on the three best pictures in four years trend.
7. The Oscar broadcast will have terrible ratings, par for the course, and the reactive Academy will come up with some new “fix” that will no doubt make things worse. All the while ignoring how the guild awards make the final telecast utterly irrelevant.
AILIDH, thanks for posting the quotes from Richard Linklater and Christopher Nolan from the Cinema Audio Society gala. It shows what mutual admiration and respect they have for each other’s work. Linklater and Nolan had shared a Directors Roundtable, hosted by the Hollywood Reporter, earlier this season, and Nolan praised Linklater not just for the concept but its execution. Another member of that Roundtable was Mike Leigh, who recently received a Fellowship at BAFTA, and in his speech, he singled out ”Boyhood” as a ”definitive” independent film that Linklater should be ”justly proud” of. And last March, Wes Anderson and ”The Grand Budapest Hotel” were the subject of a panel at SWSX, and the moderator was Linklater, whom Anderson called ”legendary.” It’s great to see that Linklater is held in such great esteem by such notable directors. Too bad that wasn’t reflected in the DGA vote!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aASEpXEIF6M
You do have to give Birdman credit for one thing. It will be a BP winner that manages to buck both the critical consensus as well as box office consensus by losing virtually all the critical precursors as well as performing anemically in terms of ticket sales (only a little more than Boyhood domestically despite being half the length). The last time a box office underachiever that had very best of year critical prizes won BP was Crash. Can anyone really argue with a straight face that Boyhood is as radioactive with blocs of Academy voters as Brokeback Mountain? We’re talking about the same voters that nearly awarded BP to a Martial Arts fantasy that decade.
To put this another way. If Boyhood wasn’t even in the final field, would Birdman really be this level of juggernaut?
TIme flies. I didn’t realize that Miles Teller ALREADY hosted the Academy’s Sci-Tech Awards on Feb. 7.
Oscar.go posted some of his funniest moments with Margot Robbie at the podium.
http://oscar.go.com/blogs/oscar-news/150212-margot-robbie-miles-teller-funniest-sci-tech-award-hosting-moments
“Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?)”
Ailidh, do you really believe there isn’t a woman alive who has ever said something like that? Try watching Joan Rivers or Sarah Silverman. The fact Watts said that and didn’t put up a stink probably shows she was cool saying it in the first place. I know I, along with many of my male friends, can be self-deprecating like that. Some of my female friends have said stuff like that as well. If we can’t laugh at ourselves…
Right now I’m more concerned that Eddie Redmayne may lose to Keaton as part of a Birdman sweep.
“On my list, though: Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Lobster”
The DOGTOOTH guy doing a movie in English with Farrell, Colman, Whishaw, Seydoux and Reilly? Was not aware at all, but thanks, consider it added to mine!
Oops! My mistake!!
Help: By any lucky chance, does anyone know of an English or Spanish translation of Francois Begaudeau’s “La Blessure, la vraie” — it’s being adapted by that WARMEST COLOR guy into a major motion picture and it sounds really really so good and I really really wanna read it, but I’m a dumb American and don’t know French — so if you know about anything I’d appreciate a pointer. Thanks, bye.
The fact that Linklater could go home empty-handed on Sunday night at an event intended to honor the year’s most accomplished cinema is frustrating, to say the least. I very much enjoyed Birdman, but Sasha is right when she remarks that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences can’t seem to pull itself away from a mirror. Boyhood is not an insider’s film in terms of its content, and certainly not in how it was made. Boyhood’s Hollywood connections are tenuous, at best, and that, I think, is the biggest thing it has going against it going into the Oscars. Nevertheless, I think just about everyone has come to realize that the Oscars don’t mean very much in the long run. The list of films that haven’t won Best Picture Oscars is far superior to the list of those that have. All one has to do is take a look at the most recent Sight and Sound Poll, widely regarded as the king of the Best-of-All-Time polls. Vertigo, Citizen Kane, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Searchers, Apocalypse Now, Singin’ in the Rain, Mulholland Drive, Taxi Driver, Psycho, Some Like it Hot, North by Northwest, Rear Window, Raging Bull, Touch of Evil, Sunset Boulevard, Blade Runner, Blue Velvet, Nashville, the list goes on and on and on. In fact, a measly four films among the top 102 won Best Picture Oscars. Needless to say, those that go home empty-handed on Sunday night are in good company. That’s part of the reason why I almost DON’T want Boyhood (or some of the other fine nominees) to win. Best Picture sometimes seems more like a mark of shame. Ideally, I think, Boyhood would win for Director, and then Best Picture would go to some forgettable piece of trash, like The Imitation Game or The Theory of Everything.
“How about an Our Most Anticipated Films of 2015 post, Ryan Adams?”
Was gonna ask the same thing, Bryce, but figured everyone wanted to get thru the 2015 Oscar funeral first 🙂
On my list, though: Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Lobster
@Scott (the other one)
“Ejiofer is a better comparison, but still not entirely apt to me. He was up against the truly towering magnetic performance of DDL as Lincoln.”
No, Ejiofor lost to Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club. Daniel Day-Lewis won the year before.
Scott,
Ejiofor lost to Matthew McConaughey last year. DDL and Lincoln was 2012.
@Birdienest81
You said: @Scott (the other one)
“What I still don’t get is how Birdman can win without also winning Best Actor.”
It’s the same reason why Liam Neeson and Ralph Fiennes lost their categories while Schindler’s List won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Jeremy Renner did not win Best Actor while Hurt Locker won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Chiewetel Ejiofor lost Best Actor while 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.”
I don’t really agree with you. Keaton IS Birdman. The movie is about actors, and an actor making a comeback, and Keaton inhabits this is in a way that seems to me to be utterly central to that film.
Liam Neeson as Schindler is just not in the same category. I don’t remember anyone being particularly dazzled by him in that film. He was good, but he wasn’t “the movie”. He didn’t win any precursor awards. This is very different from the role Keaton has in Birdman, and the accolades he has received. And Fiennes — well, he was supporting, so it’s different.
Same thing with Renner — really, although he was the lead, he was not that well known at the time, won no precursor awards, and is not synonymous with the movie.
Ejiofer is a better comparison, but still not entirely apt to me. He was up against the truly towering magnetic performance of DDL as Lincoln. And as magnetic as Ejiofer was in 12YAS, it doesn’t seem comparable to me to the story of Birdman and the story of Keaton. I guess some people think of Redmayne’s performance as simply undeniable, like DDL’s in Lincoln … but not me.
So I wouldn’t entirely dismiss your comparisons, but I am trying to understand the mindset of a voter who might vote for Birdman for picture and not actor, when the accomplishment of the movie (whatever you think that is, good or bad) is so intertwined with the performance and the cultural position of the central character, whom the movie is about. Maybe Keaton will win Best Actor too — and then my question will be irrelevant. But if he doesn’t, I still don’t get how the film could get the support to win BP and Keaton not get the support for Actor. Of course, weird things happen, so if it happens it happens — just trying to comprehend it.
Is there one poster out there who would vote for Birdman for Best Picture who would NOT vote for Keaton for Best Actor??? Just ONE??? If so, let me know why you are not voting for Keaton, yet you love the film. I’m just interested in what that thought process is.
@Liz
“Also, BAFTA has given Best Picture to all the eventual Best Pictures winners since expansion”
And every one of those winners since the expansion has ALSO won the Producers Guild award, as well (which BTW has correctly predicted the BP winner slightly longer).
“Birdman couldn’t even win the comedy category at either the Globes or Critics’ Choice”
King’s Speech did not won Best Drama either. Also the critics don’t get to actually vote for the Oscars.
In my heart of hearts, I just can’t believe that they would completely ignore Linklater for what he did, and also when he got 3 nominations. So I just can’t not predict him to win something, even if I’ll probably be wrong. I think there’s a good chance there will be a split, and based on the guilds’ love for Birdman, I think it will win Best Picture, but Linklater will win Best Director. I’m not sure if anyone else would agree, but Birdman feels so insular to the industry and will be one of those winners that the general public will be surprised if/when it wins. And it’s just so strange to me that it probably won’t get an acting award even if wins Best Picture. Especially when the acting was lauded. Also, BAFTA has given Best Picture to all the eventual Best Pictures winners since expansion, and Birdman couldn’t even win the comedy category at either the Globes or Critics’ Choice. Just a really bizarre year…
Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?), its bitterness, its navel-gazing. If it wins, it will be another example of an imminently forgettable film like Argo and The Artist that only proves the Academy has no points of reference outside of its own little world.
Boyhood is badly served because Linklater has never given a shit about Hollywood. He goes his own quiet way, creating his low-key masterpieces, sticking to Austin.
Christopher Nolan presented Linklater with the CAS filmmaker award and made some pertinent comments about Boyhood and Linklater:
Nolan praised Linklater’s work on “Boyhood,” noting that he admired the honoree’s ability to “trust the inherent drama of what we all live through in families.”
“That takes enormous nerve and it risks your film being overlooked, your work being ignored,” Nolan said. “But he had the courage to do that — to be subtle, to let the drama speak for itself in that simple way — and for that reason I think (‘Boyhood’) is his masterpiece.”
When he took the stage to accept his award, Linklater explained that he and Nolan were “the subject of the same experiment” in which two filmmakers are charged with making the same film.
“Our assignment was to make a film about time itself. Make a film about parents who love their children. Make a film about mortality, and a film about… the big question of what the hell we’re even doing here as humans. And you get ‘Interstellar’ and ‘Boyhood,’” Linklater said. “I think that speaks volumes for what this crazy medium we’re all so lucky to work in can do. We’re just here telling stories that mean a lot to us personally.”
Of course, maybe for the Academy, a film about the bond between children and parents, a film about time itself, isn’t really important – certainly not compared to a film about a washed-up hack actor finally getting a good review. Talk about narcissism.
@Scott (the other one)
“What I still don’t get is how Birdman can win without also winning Best Actor.”
It’s the same reason why Liam Neeson and Ralph Fiennes lost their categories while Schindler’s List won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Jeremy Renner did not win Best Actor while Hurt Locker won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Chiewetel Ejiofor lost Best Actor while 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.
Alfredo — I agree with you, but the current thinking is that Birdman will win BP and Director but not Actor. I don’t see how, if you love Birdman and vote for it for Pic and Director, you would not vote for it for Actor. Also, I can see someone wanting to share the love between Birdman and Boyhood, and voting for one for Pic and one for Director, but if you liked Birdman enough to vote for either Pic or Director, I would have thought you’d also vote for Keaton, since Boyhood doesn’t have anyone competing against Keaton.
I’m so done with this Oscar year and barring 3-4 major upsets this weekend, I’m expecting another very boring telecast. Bring on next week and the start of a new Oscar season!
““Birdman” winning, after the much superior blueprint “JCVD” went fully ignored by the Academy, is pretty sad. I mean, it is REALLY sad, that the coward and pretentious american remake of the belgian groundbreaking film, has been so loudly applauded, when the original went mostly unnoticed (except for Iñarritu, of course)”
THIS. Also I’d say Birdman bites big portions of Black Swan as well. And a bit of Noises Off.
Speaking of the Satellites, they seem to have been the only organization that nominated Miles Teller for Best Actor for ”Whiplash.” And that leads me to this question: J.K. Simmons has picked up every Best Supporting Actor nomination and win that I can think of, but why hasn’t the phenomenal Teller registered in ANY of the Best Actor races (aside from the Satellites). Yes, I know the Best Actor field is very competitive. But for my money, I thought Teller was the real revelation in ”Whiplash” (not Simmons), and that Teller even outshone some of the other Best Actor contenders, like Steve Carell in ”Foxcatcher.” … Interesting, but I see Teller is co-hosting the Academy’s Sci-Tech Awards. Glad to see that someone at the Academy didn’t overlook him.
But I’m rooting for Keaton also.
@Scott
I agree in most part of what you say except that I like a lot Birdman and I would be very happy if it wins but according to that logic about Picture and Actor then we can also say “and how does the film can win and not the director, he has the vision, or how the director can win and not the screenplay”. I think that the cool thing is that the awards can be given to different films in different categories.
”Satellite Award winners (the usual suspects)”
Wow, I didn’t think anyone followed the Satellites. Do any celebrities attend? … To me, some of these winners are NOT ”the usual suspects”: Dan Gilroy’s ”Nightcrawler” for Original Screeplay (yay!); ”Song of the Sea” for Animated Movie; ”Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” for Editing; ”Virunga’s” ”We Will Not Go” for Original Song. And it’s the first time I’ve seen this split: ”Birdman” for Best Pic; Linklater for Director.
If anyone’s curious, here’s a link to the complete list of Satellite nominees:
http://www.thewrap.com/birdman-leads-satellite-awards-nominations/
Sasha — I’m surprised you are so upset by the prospect of Boyhood losing to Birdman. I get that you think Boyhood is a masterpiece, but you say that Birdman is “very very good”. So this is not like when The Social Network, also a masterpiece (and I agree there), lost to a bland piece of entertainment, The King’s Speech, which was anchored by a fine performance by Colin Firth.
I hated Birdman, and I liked Boyhood a lot, but I won’t be devastated if Birdman wins BP, because I recognize that, although it was not my kind of thing, it was on some levels a challenging, original, and quirky film, and the manifestation of a unique (if irritating) vision by the director, writer and actors. It is not like The King’s Speech winning over TSN. Or Forrest Gump winning over … any other movie made in the history of film.
What I still don’t get is how Birdman can win without also winning Best Actor. The only explanation I have been offered is Claudiu saying “well, Redmayne just gave a better performance”. But if you LOVE Birdman, how can you not also love Keaton in it, and how can you not see Keaton’s performance and the film as utterly inseparable accomplishments? As I say I didn’t like Birdman or Keaton in it, but surely Keaton’s performance is completely of a piece with, and consistent with, and wholly informed by and realized within, the movie itself, so if you loved one, you loved the other. And how can someone who loved Birdman then mark their ballot for Redmayne in the boring, conventional, Oscar-bait Theory of Everything? It seems so schizoid to me. Voting for Birdman as BP and not for Best Actor would be like voting for Sophie’s Choice for Best Picture but not for Meryl Streep — “Oh yeah, loved Sophie’s Choice, but Streep was just okay in it.” Huh?
Unless I’m wrong and the script was very easy to write.
Daveylow, I don’t think it’s fair to compare how many writers Birdman had to how many GBH had. I thought there were a few flaws to Birdman’s writing but otherwise I thought it was one of the strongest aspects of the entire film. Plus this screenplay needed careful guidance more than any other. Writing a script with a one-take camera shot in mind must be hell to write. There can’t be traditional scene breaks or passages of time or “insert something here” to fill in for improvisation. To me the entire team must’ve scoped out the theater, studied every corner of the place, then come up with a rough outline and then wrote the script. Scripts are great blueprints for a movie, this blueprint had to be the most careful blueprint written.
Hasn’t it always been about what they like best? Isn’t this the reason the watchers rail against the Academy every year? Be happy that the consensus (I still am not truly convinced it’s consensus on a broad scale, especially not for BD) is for a film that, as you say, is “very, very good”.
Hey, at least 12 Years won last year, right? And Mad Max winning EVERYTHING next year incl. Best Foreign Film, so its all good. Every other year good results, ya know
Paul, have you seen how realistic the apes are in that film? Interstellar’s VFX are great but I’ve never completely understood Nolan’s rejection of CGI. It’s a sci-fi drama, goddamnit, using CGI isn’t a crime.
Pete, that would be terrible should the Picture’s quality be consistent with BLOOD AND HONEY and UNBROKEN. Let’s hope we’re spared early on of that circus. Now, Linklater’s THAT’S WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT doesn’t seem at all awards friendly, but have you seen that cast? Megan Ellison is producing. Stoked doesn’t begin to cover it.
I’m to the point of saying anything BUT Boyhood. Personally, I’m a Grand Budapest fan because the film brought me pure joy, but Birdman is right there for me. @philofilms
So I’m curious about something, and Sasha I’d love your input on this as well.
With the industry clearly in love with Birdman (it sweeping up seven guild wins), do you think it’s realistic that Keaton could still win?
Yes, and the reasoning behind their choices is often ridiculous and sad. But well, that’s how the Oscars are voted.
@Zooey
THR does its ballots after voting has closed so perhaps as early as tomorrow Scott will start rolling them out. Usually makes for grim reading when voters admit to not having seen all nominees.
Bryce,
Jolie/Pitt’s To the Sea is the leader out of the gate. It’s like Linklater’s Before Midnight (couple’s marriage busting up on a European vacation), but starring major A-List actors who certainly AREN’T Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy.
Boy oh boy.
How about an Our Most Anticipated Films of 2015 post, Ryan Adams?
I think we’re in need of a break here. You know, to make it through the week and be done with it.
I come to Awards Daily not just for Sasha Stone’s Oscar predictions, but for her passion and perspective, for her insights and intelligence. I find her writing thoughtful and thought-provoking. She has the courage of her convictions and will take a stand, whether or not it’s backed by statistics or conventional wisdom. Obviously, if you don’t like Sasha’s commentaries, skip them. No one’s obligated to read them. Just enjoy the ”nice discourse” in the comments section. But I, for one, appreciate how Sasha champions the cause of women and more diversity, and aims to see the bigger picture behind the Oscar race.
And In what universe is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes’ VFX better than Interstellar’s?