Hope springs eternal when there are so many options for Best Picture before the Big Oscar Movies hit. A recent discussion on Twitter brought up the question as to whether or not Pixar’s sublime Inside Out (our review here) could make the cut. Variety’s Steven Gaydos said it was on his list since seeing it at Cannes.
Not so fast, Marshall Flores (Statsgasm) and I said. We know how it goes. By the time the summer is over and fall season starts, momentum is much harder to gather. That, and the Academy is mostly ruled by actors, their biggest branch by far, and actors usually like movies with real people in them saying lines. They don’t much like being replaced either by animation or by performance capture. No matter how hard they are pressured to accept these new modes of acting, their faces are their bread and butter, thus animation often gets sidelined, especially now since it has its own category; back when Beauty and the Beast was nominated for Best Picture there wasn’t a separate category. Since then, only during the years where voters had ten nomination slots could animated films get in and they did – Up and Toy Story 3. When the Academy switched back to five nomination slots, however, animation was once again shepherded back into its own category, which is where we are today.
Inside Out is exceptional beyond the Oscar meme of late (male in crisis), stands for originality amid a sea change of sequels, is about something worthy (loss of childhood, what goes on inside our heads as children, as adults, and other creatures), and maintains the Pixar standard of animation that goes beyond “kids stuff.” Thus, it’s fair to say that Inside Out ought to be considered the first major Best Picture contender of the year, even if we know by the end of the year it will likely be selected out.
Just look at these reviews:
There may be films that will equal Inside Out but it’s going to be tough to find one that can beat it in terms of reviews alone. As has been pointed out, its box office will be hampered by the juggernaut that is Jurassic World but it should still do well in summer season. Word of mouth will ensure it does well, even if it doesn’t have the opening numbers.
There are two other films that should also be considered seriously for Best Picture at this point and that would be Love & Mercy, the story of the Beach Boy’s Brian Wilson overcoming mental illness. Love & Mercy is one of those films that people “out there” continue to talk about. It isn’t just that many of the Oscar voters will have a personal relationship with the Beach Boys music, it’s that the film itself is stirring thanks to the performances of Paul Dano and John Cusack as Wilson. It has set the bar high for films coming out at festivals like Venice, Telluride and New York.
The third strong contender for Best Picture is George Miller’s Mad Max: Fury Road. Hurting the film is its position as an installment in the Mad Max franchise. It is also hurt by it being an effects-driven film, though the effects will likely give Star Wars a run for its money come Oscar time. Mad Max might have to settle for a nomination for Charlize Theron, but its reviews, money made and cultural impact put it in the Oscar zone.
It’s too soon to tell about the Oscar-friendly films that showed at Cannes, like Youth, which hits the sweet spot of Oscar voters as it’s about industry people in the twilight of their brilliant careers. It is being pushed by Fox Searchlight, which definitely makes it a potentially formidable contender in some respect, if not Best Picture.
The other big film from Cannes would be Todd Haynes’ Carol, handled by the Weinstein Co. and absolutely a film that could go all the way in multiple major categories. Carol has the velvety feel of an Oscar period piece but deals with 2015 issues about self-acceptance and the courage to stand behind who we really are.
Brooklyn was a potential contender out of Sundance which may or may not be remembered. Ex Machina was one of the early treasures of the year but is probably just outside the Academy’s comfort zone.
Oscar season really starts around early September. By October, your Best Picture winner will have been seen, if recent history is any indicator. It was released into theaters or seen at festivals but it will not be one that comes out of nowhere to win. It’s just not possible to rally contenders late in the game anymore, not even Clint Eastwood can do that (though he almost did last year). Voting starts so early and with the time crunch voters won’t watch all of the movies. They only watch a few. They only have to name five so picking their favorites gets kind of easy, most of the time.
Last year is a great example of how the latecomers like Unbroken, Into the Woods did not figure into the race while the films seen early like Birdman did.
Here is how it went last year–
Birdman (Venice, Telluride)
American Sniper — LATE, AFI
Imitation Game — Telluride
Grand Budapest Hotel — early release
Selma — LATE, AFI
Theory of Everything — Toronto
Whiplash — Sundance
Two of those films made it into the race, neither had a chance to win simce both were hit with controversy that, if given enough time, could have been overcome. With no time to settle, the films had no chance to really gain momentum as winners.
The same pattern might follow this year. It’s too soon to tell, really. This “early is better than late” pattern has held true for almost a decade. Not since Million Dollar Baby has a movie come in at the last minute and won Best Picture.
One thing worth noting about our first half check-in is that the three strongest contenders are all female driven stories – Inside Out, Fury Road and Carol. That’s significant. Love & Mercy and Youth are more male-driven, thus more Oscar friendly.
